Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In January 2026, Poland's road diesel supply was 1,674 kt: 61% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Germany (14%), the United States (10%) and the Netherlands (5%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (30%), Norway (27%) and the United States (5%), and 20% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia502 kt (est. 30%)Norway446 kt (est. 27%)United States86 kt (est. 5%)United Kingdom78 kt (est. 5%)Guyana67 kt (est. 4%)Kazakhstan50 kt (est. 3%)Libya37 kt (est. 2%)Other crude origins77 kt (est. 5%)United States: no crude data174 kt (10%)Poland: crude not from imports91 kt (5%)Saudi Arabia: no crude data35 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported20 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports9.7 kt (<1%)Poland (own refineries)1.02 Mt (61%)Germany228 kt (14%)United States174 kt (10%)Netherlands89 kt (5%)Lithuania84 kt (5%)Saudi Arabia35 kt (2%)Czechia18 kt (1%)Hungary14 kt (<1%)Finland6.0 kt (<1%)Austria4.6 kt (<1%)Slovakia0.1 kt (<1%)Poland: road diesel supply1.67 Mt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Poland (own refineries)
- Germany
- United States
- Netherlands
- Lithuania
- Saudi Arabia
- Czechia
- Hungary
- Other (3)
- Saudi Arabia502 kt (est. 30%)
- Norway446 kt (est. 27%)
- United States86 kt (est. 5%)
- United Kingdom78 kt (est. 5%)
- Guyana67 kt (est. 4%)
- Kazakhstan50 kt (est. 3%)
- Libya37 kt (est. 2%)
- Other crude origins77 kt (est. 5%)
- United States: no crude data174 kt (10%)
- Poland: crude not from imports91 kt (5%)
- Saudi Arabia: no crude data35 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported20 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports9.7 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Road diesel supplied (Jan 2026)
59 tonnes
<1% of Poland's road diesel supply
Official
Crude behind it (estimate)
- Other crude originsless than 0.1 kt (est. 83%)
- Saudi Arabialess than 0.1 kt (est. 8%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (7%)
and 1 more in the table above
Source: Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis); Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (own refineries) | Poland: road diesel supply | 1,021,557 | 61.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Germany | Poland: road diesel supply | 227,650 | 13.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Poland: road diesel supply | 174,023 | 10.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Poland: road diesel supply | 88,848 | 5.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Lithuania | Poland: road diesel supply | 84,020 | 5.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Saudi Arabia | Poland: road diesel supply | 34,748 | 2.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Czechia | Poland: road diesel supply | 17,662 | 1.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Hungary | Poland: road diesel supply | 14,354 | 0.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Poland: road diesel supply | 6,001 | 0.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Austria | Poland: road diesel supply | 4,596 | 0.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Poland (own refineries) | 452,118 | 44.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Poland (own refineries) | 362,324 | 35.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 174,023 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Poland: crude not from imports | Poland (own refineries) | 91,368 | 8.9% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Guyana | Poland (own refineries) | 59,369 | 5.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 45,091 | 53.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 39,455 | 17.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 35,907 | 15.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Germany | 35,308 | 15.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia: no crude data | Saudi Arabia | 34,748 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Germany | 34,685 | 15.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 32,195 | 14.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Poland (own refineries) | 28,403 | 2.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Poland (own refineries) | 27,975 | 2.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 26,190 | 29.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 23,196 | 10.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 22,956 | 25.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 19,132 | 22.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 17,411 | 19.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 16,723 | 19.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 14,968 | 6.6% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 9,482 | 10.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Hungary | 7,872 | 54.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Germany | 7,602 | 3.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 6,873 | 7.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Czechia | 6,694 | 37.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Poland split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Hungary | 5,851 | 40.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Czechia | 5,335 | 30.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Poland split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 4,967 | 5.6% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Norway | Finland | 4,821 | 80.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Saudi Arabia | Czechia | 3,504 | 19.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Poland split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 3,458 | 1.5% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Other crude origins | Lithuania | 3,074 | 3.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Czechia | 2,129 | 12.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Poland split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Austria | 2,023 | 44.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Netherlands | 971 | 1.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 876 | 0.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Austria | 762 | 16.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 724 | 12.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Kazakhstan | Hungary | 631 | 4.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Austria | 467 | 10.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Austria | 446 | 9.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Austria | 380 | 8.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Austria | 242 | 5.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 236 | 3.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Finland | 221 | 3.7% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Poland split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Austria | 202 | 4.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Austria | 74 | 1.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Austria's road diesel to Poland split by Austria's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Slovakia | 49 | 83.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Slovakia | 5 | 8.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Slovakia | 4 | 7.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Libya | Slovakia | 1 | 1.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2026-01 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceLowMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · low
Provenance
Inferred · lowLow- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-01 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · low
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Poland’s supply of road diesel in 2026-01, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2026-01 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-11 to 2026-01.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (174,023 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Poland: crude not from imports (91,368 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Saudi Arabia: no crude data (34,748 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (19,935 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (9,693 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.