Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In September 2024, Poland's road diesel supply was 1,685 kt: 68% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Germany (10%), the Netherlands (9%) and the United States (5%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (35%), Norway (25%) and the United States (8%), and 14% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia587 kt (est. 35%)Norway423 kt (est. 25%)United States141 kt (est. 8%)United Kingdom99 kt (est. 6%)Kazakhstan61 kt (est. 4%)Nigeria41 kt (est. 2%)Iraq24 kt (est. 1%)Other crude origins72 kt (est. 4%)United States: no crude data91 kt (5%)Poland: crude origin not reported68 kt (4%)Kuwait: no crude data35 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported30 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports13 kt (<1%)Poland (own refineries)1.15 Mt (68%)Germany174 kt (10%)Netherlands151 kt (9%)United States91 kt (5%)Sweden66 kt (4%)Kuwait35 kt (2%)Lithuania15 kt (<1%)Slovakia4.5 kt (<1%)Poland: road diesel supply1.69 Mt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Poland (own refineries)
- Germany
- Netherlands
- United States
- Sweden
- Kuwait
- Lithuania
- Slovakia
- Saudi Arabia587 kt (est. 35%)
- Norway423 kt (est. 25%)
- United States141 kt (est. 8%)
- United Kingdom99 kt (est. 6%)
- Kazakhstan61 kt (est. 4%)
- Nigeria41 kt (est. 2%)
- Iraq24 kt (est. 1%)
- Other crude origins72 kt (est. 4%)
- United States: no crude data91 kt (5%)
- Poland: crude origin not reported68 kt (4%)
- Kuwait: no crude data35 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported30 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports13 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Sep 2024)
34.8 thousand tonnes
2% of Poland's road diesel supply
Unknown
Last shipped from
- Kuwait35 kt (100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (own refineries) | Poland: road diesel supply | 1,150,640 | 68.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Germany | Poland: road diesel supply | 173,509 | 10.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Poland: road diesel supply | 150,562 | 8.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Poland: road diesel supply | 90,875 | 5.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Poland: road diesel supply | 65,797 | 3.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Kuwait | Poland: road diesel supply | 34,802 | 2.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Lithuania | Poland: road diesel supply | 14,704 | 0.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Slovakia | Poland: road diesel supply | 4,537 | 0.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Poland (own refineries) | 572,662 | 49.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Poland (own refineries) | 316,811 | 27.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 90,875 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Poland (own refineries) | 78,885 | 6.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Poland: crude origin not reported | Poland (own refineries) | 67,729 | 5.9% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Poland (own refineries) | 64,330 | 5.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Sweden | 44,322 | 67.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 40,805 | 23.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kuwait: no crude data | Kuwait | 34,802 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Netherlands | 31,281 | 20.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 31,011 | 17.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 27,665 | 15.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 26,721 | 17.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Poland (own refineries) | 23,565 | 2.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 21,959 | 14.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Poland (own refineries) | 21,253 | 1.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 20,295 | 11.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 17,401 | 11.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 14,577 | 8.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 13,136 | 8.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 13,069 | 8.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 12,319 | 8.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Iraq | Germany | 11,322 | 6.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 10,919 | 6.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 8,769 | 5.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Sweden | 6,680 | 10.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 6,674 | 3.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 5,532 | 37.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Poland (own refineries) | 5,404 | 0.5% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 5,150 | 3.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 5,089 | 2.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Slovakia | 4,372 | 96.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 4,346 | 6.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 4,210 | 6.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 4,165 | 28.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 3,846 | 2.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Sweden | 3,832 | 5.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 2,838 | 19.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Netherlands | 2,060 | 1.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Sweden | 2,051 | 3.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 1,149 | 7.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Lithuania | 524 | 3.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 495 | 3.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Sweden | 356 | 0.5% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Slovakia | 165 | 3.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2024-07 to 2024-09. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2024-09 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2024-09 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Poland’s supply of road diesel in 2024-09, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2024-09 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-07 to 2024-09.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (90,875 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Poland: crude origin not reported (67,729 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Kuwait: no crude data (34,802 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (29,918 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (13,466 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.