Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In May 2024, Poland's road diesel supply was 1,783 kt: 64% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Germany (12%), the United States (8%) and the Netherlands (6%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (35%), Norway (26%) and the United States (11%), and 14% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia632 kt (est. 35%)Norway471 kt (est. 26%)United States190 kt (est. 11%)United Kingdom75 kt (est. 4%)Kazakhstan65 kt (est. 4%)Libya26 kt (est. 1%)Iraq24 kt (est. 1%)Other crude origins46 kt (est. 3%)United States: no crude data137 kt (8%)Saudi Arabia: no crude data63 kt (4%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports22 kt (1%)Germany: crude origin not reported18 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported15 kt (<1%)Poland (own refineries)1.14 Mt (64%)Germany222 kt (12%)United States137 kt (8%)Netherlands115 kt (6%)Sweden95 kt (5%)Saudi Arabia63 kt (4%)Lithuania10 kt (<1%)Hungary4.0 kt (<1%)Slovakia1.2 kt (<1%)Poland: road diesel supply1.78 Mt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Poland (own refineries)
- Germany
- United States
- Netherlands
- Sweden
- Saudi Arabia
- Lithuania
- Hungary
- Other (1)
- Saudi Arabia632 kt (est. 35%)
- Norway471 kt (est. 26%)
- United States190 kt (est. 11%)
- United Kingdom75 kt (est. 4%)
- Kazakhstan65 kt (est. 4%)
- Libya26 kt (est. 1%)
- Iraq24 kt (est. 1%)
- Other crude origins46 kt (est. 3%)
- United States: no crude data137 kt (8%)
- Saudi Arabia: no crude data63 kt (4%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports22 kt (1%)
- Germany: crude origin not reported18 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported15 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (May 2024)
190.0 thousand tonnes
est. 11% of Poland's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported190 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Poland (own refineries)98 kt (est. 52%)
- Germany42 kt (est. 22%)
- Netherlands30 kt (est. 16%)
and 2 more in the table above
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (own refineries) | Poland: road diesel supply | 1,135,854 | 63.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Germany | Poland: road diesel supply | 221,769 | 12.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Poland: road diesel supply | 136,997 | 7.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Poland: road diesel supply | 115,169 | 6.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Poland: road diesel supply | 94,541 | 5.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Saudi Arabia | Poland: road diesel supply | 63,014 | 3.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Lithuania | Poland: road diesel supply | 10,482 | 0.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Hungary | Poland: road diesel supply | 3,995 | 0.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Poland (own refineries) | 608,437 | 53.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Poland (own refineries) | 360,775 | 31.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 136,997 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Poland (own refineries) | 98,426 | 8.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia: no crude data | Saudi Arabia | 63,014 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Norway | Sweden | 50,786 | 53.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 42,088 | 19.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 40,567 | 18.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Poland (own refineries) | 33,174 | 2.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 32,017 | 14.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 30,291 | 26.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 23,428 | 10.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 19,971 | 9.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Germany | 19,862 | 9.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Sweden | 18,742 | 19.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Germany: crude origin not reported | Germany | 17,974 | 8.1% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Kazakhstan | Poland (own refineries) | 17,623 | 1.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Poland split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Poland (own refineries) | 17,419 | 1.5% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 16,621 | 14.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 14,342 | 12.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 14,304 | 12.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Germany | 13,340 | 6.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 11,129 | 11.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 10,492 | 9.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 10,264 | 8.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 9,662 | 8.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 9,194 | 8.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Poland split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 8,368 | 3.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Poland split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Sweden | 6,092 | 6.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Sweden | 5,284 | 5.6% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 5,028 | 48.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 4,154 | 1.9% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Other crude origins | Hungary | 2,787 | 69.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 2,508 | 2.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Poland split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 2,204 | 21.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Lithuania | 1,581 | 15.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 1,246 | 11.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Slovakia | 1,122 | 91.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Poland split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Hungary | 613 | 15.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Kazakhstan | Hungary | 595 | 14.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Hungary's road diesel to Poland split by Hungary's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 423 | 4.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Poland split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-03 to 2024-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Slovakia | 104 | 8.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2024-05 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2024-05 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Poland’s supply of road diesel in 2024-05, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2024-05 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-03 to 2024-05.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (136,997 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Saudi Arabia: no crude data (63,014 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (22,289 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Germany: crude origin not reported (17,974 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (14,945 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.