Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In September 2025, Sweden's road diesel supply was 619 kt: 53% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Finland (15%), Denmark (14%) and the Netherlands (6%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (49%), the United States (16%) and the United Kingdom (8%), and 17% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway306 kt (est. 49%)United States96 kt (est. 16%)United Kingdom48 kt (est. 8%)Guyana35 kt (est. 6%)Nigeria13 kt (est. 2%)Kazakhstan5.9 kt (est. <1%)Brazil3.7 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins8.3 kt (est. 1%)Canada: no crude data32 kt (5%)Norway: no crude data31 kt (5%)Denmark: crude not from imports26 kt (4%)Qatar: no crude data12 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported2.4 kt (<1%)Sweden (own refineries)326 kt (53%)Finland90 kt (15%)Denmark89 kt (14%)Netherlands39 kt (6%)Canada32 kt (5%)Norway31 kt (5%)Qatar12 kt (2%)Sweden: road diesel supply619 kt (100%)
Tap a country to follow its flows. Tap it again, or use the close button, to clear.
Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Sweden (own refineries)
- Finland
- Denmark
- Netherlands
- Canada
- Norway
- Qatar
- Norway306 kt (est. 49%)
- United States96 kt (est. 16%)
- United Kingdom48 kt (est. 8%)
- Guyana35 kt (est. 6%)
- Nigeria13 kt (est. 2%)
- Kazakhstan5.9 kt (est. <1%)
- Brazil3.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins8.3 kt (est. 1%)
- Canada: no crude data32 kt (5%)
- Norway: no crude data31 kt (5%)
- Denmark: crude not from imports26 kt (4%)
- Qatar: no crude data12 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported2.4 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Sep 2025)
8.3 thousand tonnes
est. 1% of Sweden's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported8.3 kt estimated
Inferred · mediumEstimated
Refined in
- Netherlands5.9 kt (est. 72%)
- Finland2.4 kt (est. 28%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden (own refineries) | Sweden: road diesel supply | 326,278 | 52.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Finland | Sweden: road diesel supply | 90,156 | 14.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Denmark | Sweden: road diesel supply | 88,778 | 14.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Sweden: road diesel supply | 39,079 | 6.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Canada | Sweden: road diesel supply | 31,645 | 5.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Norway | Sweden: road diesel supply | 30,597 | 4.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Qatar | Sweden: road diesel supply | 12,256 | 2.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Sweden (own refineries) | 199,487 | 61.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 72,690 | 80.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Sweden (own refineries) | 52,577 | 16.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden (own refineries) | 32,106 | 9.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Canada: no crude data | Canada | 31,645 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Guyana | Sweden (own refineries) | 31,350 | 9.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway: no crude data | Norway | 30,597 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Denmark: crude not from imports | Denmark | 26,010 | 29.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Denmark | 25,333 | 28.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Denmark | 24,791 | 27.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Denmark | 12,644 | 14.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Qatar: no crude data | Qatar | 12,256 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Finland | 10,985 | 12.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Nigeria | Sweden (own refineries) | 10,757 | 3.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 8,018 | 20.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 7,653 | 19.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 5,945 | 15.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 5,855 | 15.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Finland | 4,125 | 4.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Brazil | Netherlands | 3,744 | 9.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 3,185 | 8.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 2,416 | 6.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 2,356 | 2.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 2,263 | 5.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-09 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-09 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Sweden’s supply of road diesel in 2025-09, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-09 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-07 to 2025-09.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Canada: no crude data (31,645 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Norway: no crude data (30,597 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Denmark: crude not from imports (26,010 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Qatar: no crude data (12,256 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (2,416 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.