Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In January 2026, Sweden's road diesel supply was 892 kt: 60% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Denmark (15%), Finland (11%) and the Netherlands (8%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (52%), the United States (23%) and the United Kingdom (8%), and 12% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway463 kt (est. 52%)United States202 kt (est. 23%)United Kingdom68 kt (est. 8%)Netherlands13 kt (est. 1%)Kazakhstan7.2 kt (est. <1%)Denmark6.7 kt (est. <1%)Senegal6.1 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins19 kt (est. 2%)Denmark: crude not from imports39 kt (4%)Canada: no crude data36 kt (4%)Norway: no crude data27 kt (3%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported3.8 kt (<1%)Sweden (own refineries)533 kt (60%)Denmark132 kt (15%)Finland96 kt (11%)Netherlands67 kt (8%)Canada36 kt (4%)Norway27 kt (3%)Sweden: road diesel supply892 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Sweden (own refineries)
- Denmark
- Finland
- Netherlands
- Canada
- Norway
- Norway463 kt (est. 52%)
- United States202 kt (est. 23%)
- United Kingdom68 kt (est. 8%)
- Netherlands13 kt (est. 1%)
- Kazakhstan7.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Denmark6.7 kt (est. <1%)
- Senegal6.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins19 kt (est. 2%)
- Denmark: crude not from imports39 kt (4%)
- Canada: no crude data36 kt (4%)
- Norway: no crude data27 kt (3%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported3.8 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Jan 2026)
27.5 thousand tonnes
3% of Sweden's road diesel supply
Unknown
Last shipped from
- Norway27 kt (100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden (own refineries) | Sweden: road diesel supply | 532,763 | 59.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Denmark | Sweden: road diesel supply | 132,262 | 14.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Sweden: road diesel supply | 95,875 | 10.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Sweden: road diesel supply | 67,320 | 7.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Canada | Sweden: road diesel supply | 36,006 | 4.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Norway | Sweden: road diesel supply | 27,475 | 3.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Sweden (own refineries) | 323,364 | 60.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Sweden (own refineries) | 137,144 | 25.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 77,015 | 80.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Sweden (own refineries) | 58,975 | 11.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Denmark | 49,495 | 37.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Denmark | 43,854 | 33.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark: crude not from imports | Denmark | 38,846 | 29.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Canada: no crude data | Canada | 36,006 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Norway: no crude data | Norway | 27,475 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 19,308 | 28.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 17,393 | 25.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Netherlands | Sweden (own refineries) | 13,280 | 2.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 13,192 | 19.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 7,185 | 10.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 6,258 | 6.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Senegal | Finland | 5,307 | 5.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 5,207 | 7.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 3,768 | 3.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 3,763 | 5.6% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United States | Finland | 3,527 | 3.7% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Senegal | Netherlands | 821 | 1.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Netherlands | 450 | 0.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-11 to 2026-01. Confidence: medium. |
2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2026-01 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceLowMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · low
Provenance
Inferred · lowLow- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-01 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · low
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Sweden’s supply of road diesel in 2026-01, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2026-01 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-11 to 2026-01.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Denmark: crude not from imports (38,846 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Canada: no crude data (36,006 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Norway: no crude data (27,475 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (3,830 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.