Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In February 2026, Sweden's road diesel supply was 743 kt: 64% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Finland (15%), Denmark (11%) and the Netherlands (6%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (53%), the United States (19%) and the United Kingdom (7%), and 15% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway396 kt (est. 53%)United States143 kt (est. 19%)United Kingdom55 kt (est. 7%)Denmark10 kt (est. 1%)Senegal5.6 kt (est. <1%)Netherlands4.5 kt (est. <1%)Kazakhstan3.8 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins14 kt (est. 2%)Sweden: crude not from imports54 kt (7%)Denmark: crude not from imports24 kt (3%)Norway: no crude data15 kt (2%)Qatar: no crude data14 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported3.5 kt (<1%)Sweden (own refineries)473 kt (64%)Finland108 kt (15%)Denmark84 kt (11%)Netherlands48 kt (6%)Norway15 kt (2%)Qatar14 kt (2%)Sweden: road diesel supply743 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Sweden (own refineries)
- Finland
- Denmark
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Qatar
- Norway396 kt (est. 53%)
- United States143 kt (est. 19%)
- United Kingdom55 kt (est. 7%)
- Denmark10 kt (est. 1%)
- Senegal5.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Netherlands4.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Kazakhstan3.8 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins14 kt (est. 2%)
- Sweden: crude not from imports54 kt (7%)
- Denmark: crude not from imports24 kt (3%)
- Norway: no crude data15 kt (2%)
- Qatar: no crude data14 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported3.5 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Feb 2026)
3.5 thousand tonnes
<1% of Sweden's road diesel supply
Unknown
Last shipped from
- Netherlands3.5 kt (100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden (own refineries) | Sweden: road diesel supply | 473,458 | 63.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Finland | Sweden: road diesel supply | 108,324 | 14.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Denmark | Sweden: road diesel supply | 84,121 | 11.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Sweden: road diesel supply | 47,962 | 6.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Norway | Sweden: road diesel supply | 15,349 | 2.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Qatar | Sweden: road diesel supply | 13,641 | 1.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Sweden (own refineries) | 264,975 | 56.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Sweden (own refineries) | 105,420 | 22.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 85,943 | 79.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Sweden: crude not from imports | Sweden (own refineries) | 53,849 | 11.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden (own refineries) | 49,214 | 10.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Denmark | 34,989 | 41.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark: crude not from imports | Denmark | 24,174 | 28.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Denmark | 18,941 | 22.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway: no crude data | Norway | 15,349 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 14,077 | 29.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Qatar: no crude data | Qatar | 13,641 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Netherlands | 12,161 | 25.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 10,298 | 21.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 9,858 | 9.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Finland | 6,889 | 6.4% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Senegal | Finland | 5,634 | 5.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Netherlands | Denmark | 4,514 | 5.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 3,824 | 8.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 3,814 | 8.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 3,478 | 7.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Denmark | 1,504 | 1.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Netherlands | 309 | 0.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-12 to 2026-02. Confidence: medium. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2026-02 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-02 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Sweden’s supply of road diesel in 2026-02, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2026-02 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-12 to 2026-02.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Sweden: crude not from imports (53,849 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Denmark: crude not from imports (24,174 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Norway: no crude data (15,349 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Qatar: no crude data (13,641 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (3,478 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.