Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In June 2025, Sweden's road diesel supply was 688 kt: 68% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Finland (16%), Denmark (9%) and the Netherlands (5%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (49%), the United States (16%) and Guyana (11%), and 5% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway335 kt (est. 49%)United States108 kt (est. 16%)Guyana73 kt (est. 11%)United Kingdom68 kt (est. 10%)Libya19 kt (est. 3%)Nigeria16 kt (est. 2%)Netherlands12 kt (est. 2%)Other crude origins22 kt (est. 3%)Denmark: crude not from imports16 kt (2%)Norway: no crude data12 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports5.0 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported2.9 kt (<1%)Sweden (own refineries)465 kt (68%)Finland109 kt (16%)Denmark64 kt (9%)Netherlands38 kt (5%)Norway12 kt (2%)Sweden: road diesel supply688 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Sweden (own refineries)
- Finland
- Denmark
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Norway335 kt (est. 49%)
- United States108 kt (est. 16%)
- Guyana73 kt (est. 11%)
- United Kingdom68 kt (est. 10%)
- Libya19 kt (est. 3%)
- Nigeria16 kt (est. 2%)
- Netherlands12 kt (est. 2%)
- Other crude origins22 kt (est. 3%)
- Denmark: crude not from imports16 kt (2%)
- Norway: no crude data12 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports5.0 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported2.9 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Jun 2025)
108.4 thousand tonnes
est. 16% of Sweden's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported108 kt estimated
Inferred · mediumEstimated
Last shipped from
- Sweden (own refineries)54 kt (est. 50%)
- Denmark29 kt (est. 27%)
- Finland17 kt (est. 16%)
and 1 more in the table above
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden (own refineries) | Sweden: road diesel supply | 464,987 | 67.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Finland | Sweden: road diesel supply | 109,457 | 15.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Denmark | Sweden: road diesel supply | 63,558 | 9.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Sweden: road diesel supply | 37,621 | 5.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Norway | Sweden: road diesel supply | 12,470 | 1.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Sweden (own refineries) | 226,225 | 48.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 84,349 | 77.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Guyana | Sweden (own refineries) | 72,550 | 15.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden (own refineries) | 62,673 | 13.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Sweden (own refineries) | 54,167 | 11.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Denmark | 28,805 | 45.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Sweden (own refineries) | 17,941 | 3.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Denmark | 17,567 | 27.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 16,984 | 15.5% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Denmark: crude not from imports | Denmark | 16,080 | 25.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Nigeria | Sweden (own refineries) | 14,757 | 3.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 14,005 | 37.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway: no crude data | Norway | 12,470 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Netherlands | Sweden (own refineries) | 11,648 | 2.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 8,421 | 22.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 8,124 | 7.4% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Netherlands | 6,390 | 17.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Sweden (own refineries) | 5,025 | 1.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 4,455 | 11.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 2,894 | 7.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Denmark | 1,107 | 1.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 883 | 2.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Netherlands | 573 | 1.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-04 to 2025-06. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-06 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-06 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Sweden’s supply of road diesel in 2025-06, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-06 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-04 to 2025-06.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Denmark: crude not from imports (16,080 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Norway: no crude data (12,470 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (5,025 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (2,894 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.