Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In October 2025, Sweden's road diesel supply was 614 kt: 50% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Finland (18%), Denmark (17%) and the Netherlands (8%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (54%), the United States (16%) and the United Kingdom (8%), and 11% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway335 kt (est. 54%)United States98 kt (est. 16%)United Kingdom46 kt (est. 8%)Guyana18 kt (est. 3%)Nigeria16 kt (est. 3%)Kazakhstan7.3 kt (est. 1%)Denmark6.6 kt (est. 1%)Other crude origins17 kt (est. 3%)Denmark: crude not from imports31 kt (5%)Norway: no crude data30 kt (5%)Qatar: no crude data6.2 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported2.8 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.1 kt (<1%)Sweden (own refineries)305 kt (50%)Finland108 kt (18%)Denmark107 kt (17%)Netherlands49 kt (8%)Norway30 kt (5%)Spain9.4 kt (2%)Qatar6.2 kt (1%)Sweden: road diesel supply614 kt (100%)
Tap a country to follow its flows. Tap it again, or use the close button, to clear.
Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Sweden (own refineries)
- Finland
- Denmark
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Spain
- Qatar
- Norway335 kt (est. 54%)
- United States98 kt (est. 16%)
- United Kingdom46 kt (est. 8%)
- Guyana18 kt (est. 3%)
- Nigeria16 kt (est. 3%)
- Kazakhstan7.3 kt (est. 1%)
- Denmark6.6 kt (est. 1%)
- Other crude origins17 kt (est. 3%)
- Denmark: crude not from imports31 kt (5%)
- Norway: no crude data30 kt (5%)
- Qatar: no crude data6.2 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported2.8 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Oct 2025)
98.1 thousand tonnes
est. 16% of Sweden's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported98 kt estimated
Inferred · mediumEstimated
Last shipped from
- Sweden (own refineries)53 kt (est. 54%)
- Denmark29 kt (est. 29%)
- Netherlands10 kt (est. 10%)
and 2 more in the table above
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden (own refineries) | Sweden: road diesel supply | 304,917 | 49.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Finland | Sweden: road diesel supply | 107,704 | 17.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Denmark | Sweden: road diesel supply | 106,654 | 17.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Sweden: road diesel supply | 49,106 | 8.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Norway | Sweden: road diesel supply | 29,990 | 4.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Spain | Sweden: road diesel supply | 9,401 | 1.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Qatar | Sweden: road diesel supply | 6,232 | 1.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Sweden (own refineries) | 205,899 | 67.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 83,056 | 77.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Sweden (own refineries) | 53,046 | 17.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Denmark | 34,695 | 32.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark: crude not from imports | Denmark | 30,893 | 29.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway: no crude data | Norway | 29,990 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Denmark | 28,752 | 27.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden (own refineries) | 21,499 | 7.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Denmark | 12,314 | 11.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Sweden split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Sweden (own refineries) | 12,241 | 4.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Sweden (own refineries) | 12,232 | 4.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Sweden split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 11,499 | 23.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 10,742 | 21.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 10,269 | 20.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 8,234 | 7.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 6,909 | 14.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 6,553 | 6.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Qatar: no crude data | Qatar | 6,232 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Other crude origins | Spain | 5,741 | 61.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Spain's road diesel to Sweden split by Spain's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Finland | 5,302 | 4.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Finland | 4,560 | 4.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Sweden split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 3,967 | 8.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 2,872 | 5.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Sweden split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 2,849 | 5.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United States | Spain | 1,483 | 15.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Spain's road diesel to Sweden split by Spain's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Spain | 1,006 | 10.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Spain's road diesel to Sweden split by Spain's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Spain | 489 | 5.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Spain's road diesel to Sweden split by Spain's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Spain | 387 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Spain's road diesel to Sweden split by Spain's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Spain | 124 | 1.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Spain's road diesel to Sweden split by Spain's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Spain | 117 | 1.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Spain's road diesel to Sweden split by Spain's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Spain | 54 | 0.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2025-10 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-10 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Sweden’s supply of road diesel in 2025-10, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-10 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-08 to 2025-10.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Denmark: crude not from imports (30,893 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Norway: no crude data (29,990 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Qatar: no crude data (6,232 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (2,849 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (54 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.