L-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)

Dati: 24/02/2022 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Ukrajna

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

European Council, special meeting of 24 February 2022, document EUCO 18/22: "European Council conclusions on Russia's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine"; "The European Council condemns in the strongest possible terms the Russian Federation's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine." The conclusions are dated and headed 24 February 2022, which is the date recorded here. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Uffiċjali

Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1

Dokumenti tas-sors (2)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Franza, Petrol (Euro-super 95). Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 15; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 4.

Qari ppubblikat: 169; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 26; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 52. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-25	89.49	-11.800	-11.65%	-2.69
−14	2022-02-10	96.37	-4.920	-4.86%	-1.12
−7	2022-02-17	95.28	-6.010	-5.93%	-1.37
−3	2022-02-21	98.95	-2.340	-2.31%	-0.53
−1	2022-02-23	99.29	-2.000	-1.97%	-0.46
T0	2022-02-24l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	101.3	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	98.56	-2.730	-2.70%	-0.62
+3	2022-02-25	98.56	-2.730	-2.70%	-0.62
+7	2022-03-03	115.4	+14.070	+13.89%	+3.20
+14	2022-03-10	114.5	+13.250	+13.08%	+3.02
+30	2022-03-25	122.7	+21.380	+21.11%	+4.87
+60	2022-04-25	99.27	-2.020	-1.99%	-0.46
+90	2022-05-25	116.4	+15.120	+14.93%	+3.44

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.34%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 767). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-01	3,648,000	+569,000	+18.48%	+0.97
−14	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,079,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,079,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,079,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,079,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,079,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,079,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,079,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-03-01	3,491,000	+412,000	+13.38%	+0.70
+14	2022-03-01	3,491,000	+412,000	+13.38%	+0.70
+30	2022-03-01	3,491,000	+412,000	+13.38%	+0.70
+60	2022-04-01	2,924,000	-155,000	-5.03%	-0.26
+90	2022-05-01	3,492,000	+413,000	+13.41%	+0.70

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 19.03%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.7572	-0.045	-5.63%	-2.87
−14	2022-02-07	0.7803	-0.022	-2.75%	-1.40
−7	2022-02-14	0.7917	-0.011	-1.33%	-0.68
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.8334	+0.031	+3.87%	+1.97
+14	2022-03-07	0.8923	+0.090	+11.20%	+5.71
+30	2022-03-21	0.9435	+0.141	+17.59%	+8.97
+60	2022-04-25	0.9101	+0.108	+13.43%	+6.85
+90	2022-05-23	0.9713	+0.169	+21.05%	+10.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.96%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-25	1.127	+0.011	+0.94%	+2.37
−14	2022-02-10	1.144	+0.028	+2.47%	+6.23
−7	2022-02-17	1.137	+0.021	+1.85%	+4.67
−3	2022-02-21	1.134	+0.017	+1.57%	+3.95
−1	2022-02-23	1.134	+0.018	+1.62%	+4.09
T0	2022-02-24l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.116	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	1.122	+0.005	+0.47%	+1.20
+3	2022-02-25	1.122	+0.005	+0.47%	+1.20
+7	2022-03-03	1.108	-0.009	-0.78%	-1.96
+14	2022-03-10	1.108	-0.008	-0.71%	-1.78
+30	2022-03-25	1.100	-0.016	-1.44%	-3.64
+60	2022-04-25	1.075	-0.042	-3.74%	-9.42
+90	2022-05-25	1.066	-0.051	-4.54%	-11.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.40%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 770). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-01	3.819–5.995	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-02-01	10.75–16.98	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-02-01	10.75–16.98	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-02-01	10.75–16.98	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-02-01	10.75–16.98	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-02-01	10.75–16.98	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-02-01	10.75–16.98	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-02-01	10.75–16.98	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-03-01	3.791–12.08	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-03-01	3.791–12.08	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2022-03-01	3.791–12.08	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2022-04-01	0–4.913	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2022-05-01	7.753–15.24	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-01	4.287–21.03	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-02-01	8.488–18.62	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-02-01	8.488–18.62	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-02-01	8.488–18.62	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-02-01	8.488–18.62	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-02-01	8.488–18.62	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-02-01	8.488–18.62	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-02-01	8.488–18.62	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-03-01	3.626–10.13	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-03-01	3.626–10.13	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2022-03-01	3.626–10.13	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2022-04-01	4.698–15.01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2022-05-01	8.170–21.49	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-01	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−14	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	110.0	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-03-01	105.0	-5.000	-4.55%	-0.93
+14	2022-03-01	105.0	-5.000	-4.55%	-0.93
+30	2022-03-01	105.0	-5.000	-4.55%	-0.93
+60	2022-04-01	102.0	-8.000	-7.27%	-1.50
+90	2022-05-01	102.0	-8.000	-7.27%	-1.50

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.86%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.5049	-0.049	-8.88%	-1.15
−14	2022-02-07	0.5307	-0.023	-4.22%	-0.55
−7	2022-02-14	0.5419	-0.012	-2.19%	-0.29
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.6491	+0.095	+17.15%	+2.23
+14	2022-03-07	0.7014	+0.147	+26.58%	+3.45
+30	2022-03-21	0.7064	+0.152	+27.49%	+3.57
+60	2022-04-25	0.6165	+0.062	+11.26%	+1.46
+90	2022-05-23	0.6922	+0.138	+24.93%	+3.24

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 7.69%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-01	20,524,000	+143,000	+0.70%	+0.31
−14	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	20,381,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	20,381,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	20,381,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	20,381,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	20,381,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	20,381,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	20,381,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-03-01	19,853,000	-528,000	-2.59%	-1.15
+14	2022-03-01	19,853,000	-528,000	-2.59%	-1.15
+30	2022-03-01	19,853,000	-528,000	-2.59%	-1.15
+60	2022-04-01	19,501,000	-880,000	-4.32%	-1.92
+90	2022-05-01	19,724,000	-657,000	-3.22%	-1.43

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.25%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	-0.0111	-0.011	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-02-07	-0.0005	-0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-02-14	0.0012	+0.001	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-02-28	-0.0136	-0.014	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-03-07	-0.0095	-0.009	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2022-03-21	0.0099	+0.010	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2022-04-25	-0.1096	-0.110	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2022-05-23	-0.0191	-0.019	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	1.725	-0.068	-3.77%	-3.55
−14	2022-02-07	1.765	-0.027	-1.51%	-1.42
−7	2022-02-14	1.781	-0.011	-0.64%	-0.60
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.792	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.792	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.792	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.792	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.792	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	1.813	+0.021	+1.17%	+1.10
+14	2022-03-07	1.889	+0.097	+5.38%	+5.07
+30	2022-03-21	1.974	+0.181	+10.11%	+9.52
+60	2022-04-25	1.790	-0.002	-0.13%	-0.12
+90	2022-05-23	1.972	+0.180	+10.03%	+9.44

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.06%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.7461	-0.056	-7.01%	-2.78
−14	2022-02-07	0.7798	-0.023	-2.81%	-1.11
−7	2022-02-14	0.7929	-0.009	-1.18%	-0.47
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8024	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.8198	+0.017	+2.17%	+0.86
+14	2022-03-07	0.8828	+0.080	+10.02%	+3.98
+30	2022-03-21	0.9534	+0.151	+18.82%	+7.47
+60	2022-04-25	0.8005	-0.002	-0.23%	-0.09
+90	2022-05-23	0.9522	+0.150	+18.67%	+7.40

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.52%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.9788	-0.011	-1.14%	-4.10
−14	2022-02-07	0.9855	-0.005	-0.46%	-1.64
−7	2022-02-14	0.9881	-0.002	-0.19%	-0.70
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9900	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9900	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9900	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9900	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9900	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.9935	+0.003	+0.35%	+1.27
+14	2022-03-07	1.006	+0.016	+1.62%	+5.86
+30	2022-03-21	1.020	+0.030	+3.05%	+11.00
+60	2022-04-25	0.9897	-0.000	-0.04%	-0.14
+90	2022-05-23	1.020	+0.030	+3.03%	+10.91

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.28%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-25	15.43	-1.934	-11.14%	-0.06
−14	2022-02-10	17.95	+0.594	+3.42%	+0.02
−7	2022-02-17	18.67	+1.306	+7.52%	+0.04
−3	2022-02-18	19.03	+1.666	+9.60%	+0.05
−1	2022-02-23	17.39	+0.026	+0.15%	+0.00
T0	2022-02-24l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	17.36	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	18.28	+0.924	+5.32%	+0.03
+3	2022-02-25	18.28	+0.924	+5.32%	+0.03
+7	2022-03-03	18.33	+0.966	+5.56%	+0.03
+14	2022-03-10	13.10	-4.262	-24.55%	-0.14
+30	2022-03-25	16.69	-0.674	-3.88%	-0.02
+60	2022-04-25	36.43	+19.072	+109.86%	+0.61
+90	2022-05-25	47.31	+29.946	+172.50%	+0.95

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 180.80%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 751). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-25	13.79	+0.796	+6.13%	+0.04
−14	2022-02-10	16.48	+3.492	+26.88%	+0.15
−7	2022-02-17	13.25	+0.256	+1.97%	+0.01
−3	2022-02-18	12.98	-0.014	-0.11%	-0.00
−1	2022-02-23	12.89	-0.100	-0.77%	-0.00
T0	2022-02-24l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	12.99	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	14.50	+1.512	+11.64%	+0.07
+3	2022-02-25	14.50	+1.512	+11.64%	+0.07
+7	2022-03-03	23.95	+10.962	+84.38%	+0.48
+14	2022-03-10	16.37	+3.382	+26.03%	+0.15
+30	2022-03-25	37.98	+24.988	+192.33%	+1.10
+60	2022-04-25	78.26	+65.272	+502.40%	+2.88
+90	2022-05-25	40.71	+27.720	+213.36%	+1.22

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 174.63%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 751). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 24/02/2022. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	3.791–12.08 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2022-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	3.626–10.13 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2022-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	105.0 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2022-03-01)-4.55% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.93 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	122.7 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2022-03-25)+21.11% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +4.87 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	19,853,000 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2022-03-01)-2.59% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -1.15 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	0.9534 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2022-03-21)+18.82% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +7.47 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	1.974 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2022-03-21)+10.11% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +9.52 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (17/02/2022 – 26/03/2022) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: Franza, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra.

Bidla attwali mingħajr taxxi(prezzijiet uffiċjali)
X’kien jagħmel iż-żejt mhux maħdum waħdu(ikkalkulat, bil-firxa)
Imdellel: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum(mhux attribwit lil ebda kawża)
Mhux ippubblikat(l-ebda prezz mingħajr taxxi jew spiża taż-żejt mhux maħdum f’dik il-ġimgħa)

Il-bidliet jitkejlu minn din il-ġimgħa tal-bullettin: 2022-02-21. Ir-reazzjoni għaż-żejt mhux maħdum hija meħuda mill-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet (tieqa: l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin (2023-09-25 – 2026-09-14)). Il-faxxa ċara hija firxa konservattiva, mhux intervall ta’ 90%. Iż-żona mdella: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Il-marġnijiet tar-raffinar, in-noli, il-marġnijiet tal-bejgħ bl-imnut u l-iżball tal-mudell huma kollha ġo fiha, u l-ebda wieħed minnhom ma jissemma bħala l-kawża tagħha.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, Franza) b’+14.1 c/l (firxa +8.8–+19.5); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+15.1 c/l, u jibqa’ +1.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, Franza) b’+16.9 c/l (firxa +4.5–+29.2); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+15.0 c/l, u jibqa’ -1.9 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, Franza) inbidel b’+2.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.9 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8198200000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
4.007490640383644
t0_value
0.80237
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.1748071338659316
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.8625416502892836
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.017450000000000077
change_pct_from_t0
2.1748071338659316
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
2.5213937589408393
change_in_volatility_units
0.8625416502892836
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8198200000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
4.007490640383644
t0_value
0.80237
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.1748071338659316
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.8625416502892836
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.017450000000000077
change_pct_from_t0
2.1748071338659316
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
2.5213937589408393
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.8625416502892836
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a2a975919a1492a9dd140a2bd20789bfcadc8ab89e7dfe3424c558eb4aebe6c0 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, Franza) inbidel b’+18.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’7.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.95341
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.25549988170321
t0_value
0.80237
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
18.82423320911798
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
7.465804633793283
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.15103999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
18.82423320911798
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.5213937589408393
change_in_volatility_units
7.465804633793283
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.95341
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.25549988170321
t0_value
0.80237
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
18.82423320911798
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
7.465804633793283
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.15103999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
18.82423320911798
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.5213937589408393
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
7.465804633793283
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b4ba82dbe77226327fa511f2cff60143cbdd8143e1ad30940a6c44c74da75eaf · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, Franza) inbidel b’+18.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’7.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.95216
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.21575131106432
t0_value
0.80237
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
18.668444732480022
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
7.40401798262643
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.14978999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
18.668444732480022
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.5213937589408393
change_in_volatility_units
7.40401798262643
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.95216
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.21575131106432
t0_value
0.80237
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
18.668444732480022
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
7.40401798262643
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.14978999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
18.668444732480022
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.5213937589408393
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
7.40401798262643
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b52c9fccaa90f31ef245e112df42213531d887d604e1bfeb0971bcb24c8c81b9 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, Franza) inbidel b’+1.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.81334
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
4.007334064076712
t0_value
1.79241
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.167701586132631
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.099229146187869
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.020929999999999893
change_pct_from_t0
1.167701586132631
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.0622913249546055
change_in_volatility_units
1.099229146187869
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.81334
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
4.007334064076712
t0_value
1.79241
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.167701586132631
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.099229146187869
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.020929999999999893
change_pct_from_t0
1.167701586132631
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.0622913249546055
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.099229146187869
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 91cff200e1e51ea4394cc74e74b984bc4accf870dab039537c1b987ba2d64b47 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, Franza) inbidel b’+10.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’9.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.9736500000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.25530757316238
t0_value
1.79241
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
10.111525822774926
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
9.518599639516982
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.18124000000000007
change_pct_from_t0
10.111525822774926
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.0622913249546055
change_in_volatility_units
9.518599639516982
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.9736500000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.25530757316238
t0_value
1.79241
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
10.111525822774926
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
9.518599639516982
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.18124000000000007
change_pct_from_t0
10.111525822774926
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.0622913249546055
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
9.518599639516982
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8e7ca95d2772b7b4c013ff5efc78c16397a6b82b64ea71d58cb4975da0f747f5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, Franza) inbidel b’+10.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’9.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.97215
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.215559832761727
t0_value
1.79241
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
10.027839612588638
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
9.439820675385025
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.17974
change_pct_from_t0
10.027839612588638
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.0622913249546055
change_in_volatility_units
9.439820675385025
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.97215
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.215559832761727
t0_value
1.79241
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
10.027839612588638
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
9.439820675385025
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.17974
change_pct_from_t0
10.027839612588638
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.0622913249546055
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
9.439820675385025
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5a8aafac72dd2fe027f37c3a22d263c4a01d4a4436439ecb945392824952be21 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, Franza) inbidel b’+3.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8421799999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
3.6762206424336776
t0_value
0.81183
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
3.738467413128349
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.6099522730526932
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.030349999999999877
change_pct_from_t0
3.738467413128349
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
2.322098285584389
change_in_volatility_units
1.6099522730526932
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8421799999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
3.6762206424336776
t0_value
0.81183
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
3.738467413128349
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.6099522730526932
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.030349999999999877
change_pct_from_t0
3.738467413128349
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
2.322098285584389
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.6099522730526932
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f95976c7aff42d4172b54c559a142ee01f335af99a29bfa05fe9e376f3ed8fb8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, Franza) inbidel b’+27.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’12.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.03718
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.709045743088828
t0_value
0.81183
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
27.758274515600547
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
11.953961935170536
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.22534999999999994
change_pct_from_t0
27.758274515600547
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.322098285584389
change_in_volatility_units
11.953961935170536
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.03718
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.709045743088828
t0_value
0.81183
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
27.758274515600547
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
11.953961935170536
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.22534999999999994
change_pct_from_t0
27.758274515600547
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.322098285584389
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
11.953961935170536
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 1e227ac0520d9c0c00db7ede348c04b7494549866217fede3e749694aefed1bb · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, Franza) inbidel b’+15.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’6.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.93425
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
6.052488370727627
t0_value
0.81183
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
15.079511720434077
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
6.493916219674183
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.12241999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
15.079511720434077
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.322098285584389
change_in_volatility_units
6.493916219674183
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.93425
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
6.052488370727627
t0_value
0.81183
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
15.079511720434077
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
6.493916219674183
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.12241999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
15.079511720434077
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.322098285584389
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
6.493916219674183
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9d95823ef69b63861a91a0ccf51a543c40a89602965f764ce7c5b8204469c231 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, Franza) inbidel b’+2.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.74154
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
3.6763442605700765
t0_value
1.70512
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.1359200525476285
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9923556157993734
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03642000000000012
change_pct_from_t0
2.1359200525476285
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.0720576365031371
change_in_volatility_units
1.9923556157993734
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.74154
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
3.6763442605700765
t0_value
1.70512
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.1359200525476285
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9923556157993734
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.03642000000000012
change_pct_from_t0
2.1359200525476285
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.0720576365031371
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.9923556157993734
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 02e96e03aceb35ff1de0a775f774271998830c13a3c3ba40c0f7bc3d9a5dd564 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, Franza) inbidel b’+15.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’14.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.97554
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.709228178421213
t0_value
1.70512
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
15.859294360514221
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
14.79332250479036
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2704200000000001
change_pct_from_t0
15.859294360514221
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.0720576365031371
change_in_volatility_units
14.79332250479036
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.97554
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
8.709228178421213
t0_value
1.70512
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
15.859294360514221
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
14.79332250479036
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2704200000000001
change_pct_from_t0
15.859294360514221
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.0720576365031371
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
14.79332250479036
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6d66a8af3bcdf92fface66829f35af4657765d8a48b912b4a68869e9aea32c4c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, Franza) inbidel b’+8.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’8.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.85202
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
6.052553727425603
t0_value
1.70512
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
8.61522942666792
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
8.036162546977678
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.14690000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
8.61522942666792
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.0720576365031371
change_in_volatility_units
8.036162546977678
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.85202
status
OBSERVED
country
France
z_score
6.052553727425603
t0_value
1.70512
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
8.61522942666792
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_FR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
8.036162546977678
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.14690000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
8.61522942666792
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.0720576365031371
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
8.036162546977678
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 20494e0b884ae7924119c29e3047443d3748ca9bdb20dc901a2f4931b495ad52 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, Franza) b’+14.1 c/l (firxa +8.8–+19.5); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+15.1 c/l, u jibqa’ +1.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
France
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-03-21
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
observation_date
2022-03-21
gap_eur_per_litre
0.009914183164192986
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
actual_eur_per_litre
0.15103999999999995
expected_eur_per_litre
0.14112581683580697
proxy_volatility_units
-0.11680573781220037
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-4.018000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.08751142159534327
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.1947402120762715
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
France
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-03-21
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-03-21
gap_eur_per_litre
0.009914183164192986
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.15103999999999995
expected_eur_per_litre
0.14112581683580697
proxy_volatility_units
-0.11680573781220037
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-4.018000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.08751142159534327
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.1947402120762715
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6522a4525ef3a9cbc930506b5e09326f6769733e5ce9c477fe76d2273337b485 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, Franza) b’+16.9 c/l (firxa +4.5–+29.2); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+15.0 c/l, u jibqa’ -1.9 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
France
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-05-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
observation_date
2022-05-23
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.019090064015662017
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
actual_eur_per_litre
0.14978999999999998
expected_eur_per_litre
0.168880064015662
proxy_volatility_units
0.8092678270821386
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.837999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.04548329051525943
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.2922768375160647
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
France
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FR_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-05-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-05-23
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.019090064015662017
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.14978999999999998
expected_eur_per_litre
0.168880064015662
proxy_volatility_units
0.8092678270821386
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.837999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.04548329051525943
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.2922768375160647
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a012e2bece7402ed6e0dcd0bdd779581d1c030457bb6d33f97ff6f35dde9a0ae · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
X’kienu jagħmlu l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom lill-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, Franza) fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”) huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5): m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).
pajjiż: FranzaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
UNKNOWN
country
France
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FR_DIESEL
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
proxy_product
null
gap_eur_per_litre
null
actual_eur_per_litre
null
expected_eur_per_litre
null
proxy_volatility_units
null
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
null
pass_through_window_label
null
expected_low_eur_per_litre
null
expected_high_eur_per_litre
null
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
UNKNOWN
country
France
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FR_DIESEL
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
proxy_product
null
statement_topic
event
gap_eur_per_litre
null
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
null
expected_eur_per_litre
null
proxy_volatility_units
null
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
null
pass_through_window_label
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
null
expected_high_eur_per_litre
null
Mudell event.crude_only.unknown v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 7d47fcf6cc2220e2dbeb632264dfa365f8cab51a7160b8c8a14ff2d8a1d1c554 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Franza, Frar 2022: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (11%–17%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
France
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
value_max_pct
16.9840857421241
value_min_pct
10.7455342643715
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
France
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
value_max_pct
16.9840857421241
value_min_pct
10.7455342643715
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c96abf8a9c4bceb5d23426e9a6d0ca0c21401d58ecc759b799a12c56eaa72534 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Franza, Frar 2022: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet moderata (8%–19%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
France
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
value_max_pct
18.6242960579244
value_min_pct
8.4875301689461
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
France
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
value_max_pct
18.6242960579244
value_min_pct
8.4875301689461
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e102fdffc55e75ae47d902fdc19f0b29cff9ebb51b88988feff3af07bdffdbb1 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (Franza, Frar 2022) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): +5.3%.
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
country
France
change_pct
5.280317393315418
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
value_tonnes
3079000
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
2924573.25
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
0
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
country
France
change_pct
5.280317393315418
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
value_tonnes
3079000
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
2924573.25
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
0
Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 34064256dd1157eac58ad0abc4461833bb6b06ea78f793fa0151d15a33b27546 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Frar 2022: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (Franza) kienu 3.9% aktar baxxi meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 110.0 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: FranzaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
status
OBSERVED
country
France
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_FR
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
days_of_cover
110
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-0.696745273825765
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
20381000
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
23
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
21216000
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-3.9357088989441933
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
-3.9357088989441933
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
-3.9
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
status
OBSERVED
country
France
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_FR
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
days_of_cover
110
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-0.696745273825765
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
20381000
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
23
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
21216000
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-3.9357088989441933
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5505d1a11ff9b40d9eb0592f7e766fec1f96247829002303f2442bba49b5ead0 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (Franza) madwar l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (11–17%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: FranzaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
country
France
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
dependence_band
moderate
dependence_range
11–17%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
country
France
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
FR
country_name
France
country_slug
france
dependence_band
moderate
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
11–17%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f912358944a3c3afb5711f3e42e40e85832acfa73d4d55d8760c86b592745aee · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+13.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
115.36
status
OBSERVED
z_score
5.841150770454914
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
13.890808569454036
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.203825480890899
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
14.069999999999993
change_pct_from_t0
13.890808569454036
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
change_in_volatility_units
3.203825480890899
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
115.36
status
OBSERVED
z_score
5.841150770454914
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
13.890808569454036
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.203825480890899
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
14.069999999999993
change_pct_from_t0
13.890808569454036
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.203825480890899
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 499e14f143cd15685ef1480ed3fa89cd45abe5f0647c7ec6a69249dfc87c1dd1 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+21.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
122.67
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.996054504576924
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
21.107710534109977
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.868357411616733
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.379999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
21.107710534109977
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
change_in_volatility_units
4.868357411616733
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
122.67
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.996054504576924
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
21.107710534109977
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.868357411616733
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.379999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
21.107710534109977
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
4.868357411616733
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 216049ee46b7aafc7c24ef4f74d592168c4ca36a76f9b7e30eb4f402126d0f04 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+14.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
116.41
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.007039815711837
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
14.927436074637171
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
15.11999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
14.927436074637171
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
change_in_volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
116.41
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.007039815711837
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
14.927436074637171
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
15.11999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
14.927436074637171
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 3c4d928f0edacc86e86f81949df4a6221c6a157e987b0435ccf81af9f53e267c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 06b89c2e9e647323c15398c394cf050a39c9a42ef3b469967cce5fff091ed96a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità eacf068451f42ad71340259d5f692acb03bf66b7a7d6f730ade5a819ff7d1005 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0a8ec24923eb853f8772aa729f8ec775267350a63bc1d8e64f27facfb62978a7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 92e561b810be016411f6a7bbc96381cc8ebec1f6df6e0ae2fd7fc342f4dc1c9f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Franza: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: Franza, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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