Fuel Origin

Events / Tax change

Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022

Dates
2022-06-01 → 2022-08-31
Dated to
the day
Status
Ended
Scope
Germany

What the sources said

Energiesteuersenkungsgesetz (Gesetz zur Aenderung des Energiesteuerrechts zur temporaeren Absenkung der Energiesteuer fuer Kraftstoffe) of 24 May 2022, BGBl. I 2022 p. 810. The Bundestag record of 19 May 2022 states the reduction ran from 1 June to 31 August 2022 and cut the energy-tax rate by 29.55 ct/litre on Benzin and by 14.04 ct/litre on Dieselkraftstoff. The same change is present in the primary tax series this project already holds: the tax rates taken from the European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin duties and taxes file record German excise on Euro-super 95 petrol at 0.6545 EUR/litre before, 0.3590 EUR/litre effective 2022-06-01 and 0.6545 EUR/litre again effective 2022-08-31, and on diesel at 0.4704, then 0.3300, then 0.4704 EUR/litre on the same dates. The two records agree to the cent. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about how the change reached pump prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2
Source documents (3)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Portugal, Petrol (Euro-super 95). 15 series can be drawn; 4 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

189 published readings, 6 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 52 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90132.895.82022-04-29: 108.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 110.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 116.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 121.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 125.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 122.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 125.7 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 129.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 125.0 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 119.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 111.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 99.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-29108.4-13.840-11.33%-2.53
−142022-05-18110.0-12.160-9.95%-2.22
−72022-05-25116.4-5.790-4.74%-1.06
−32022-05-27121.2-1.010-0.83%-0.18
−12022-05-31125.5+3.330+2.73%+0.61
T02022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0122.20.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-03125.7+3.480+2.85%+0.64
+72022-06-08129.2+7.000+5.73%+1.28
+142022-06-15125.0+2.760+2.26%+0.50
+302022-07-01119.2-2.990-2.45%-0.55
+602022-07-29111.5-10.690-8.75%-1.95
+902022-08-3099.34-22.860-18.71%-4.18

One volatility unit for this series is 4.48%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (764 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90949,065727,2022022-05-01: 883,811 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 917,516 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 927,594 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 748,673 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-01883,811-33,705-3.67%-0.08
−142022-05-01883,811-33,705-3.67%-0.08
−72022-05-01883,811-33,705-3.67%-0.08
−32022-05-01883,811-33,705-3.67%-0.08
−12022-05-01883,811-33,705-3.67%-0.08
T02022-06-01same print as T0917,5160.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T0917,5160.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T0917,5160.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T0917,5160.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T0917,5160.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-01927,594+10,078+1.10%+0.02
+602022-07-01927,594+10,078+1.10%+0.02
+902022-08-01748,673-168,843-18.40%-0.40

One volatility unit for this series is 46.57%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2661.1192022-05-02: 1.133 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.165 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.182 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.203 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.230 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.252 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.232 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.220 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.162 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.133-0.069-5.76%-3.31
−142022-05-161.165-0.038-3.17%-1.82
−72022-05-231.182-0.020-1.69%-0.97
−32022-05-231.182-0.020-1.69%-0.97
−12022-05-30same print as T01.2030.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.2030.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.2030.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.2030.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.230+0.028+2.30%+1.32
+142022-06-131.252+0.049+4.09%+2.35
+302022-06-271.232+0.029+2.42%+1.39
+602022-07-251.220+0.018+1.46%+0.84
+902022-08-291.162-0.040-3.36%-1.93

One volatility unit for this series is 1.74%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0820.9952022-05-02: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 1.066 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 1.072 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 1.071 US dollars per euro, used for offsets T02022-06-02: 1.069 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12022-06-03: 1.073 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 1.074 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 1.043 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 1.020 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 1.003 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.052-0.019-1.76%-4.20
−142022-05-181.052-0.019-1.76%-4.23
−72022-05-251.066-0.006-0.52%-1.25
−32022-05-271.072+0.001+0.09%+0.22
−12022-05-311.071+0.000+0.01%+0.02
T02022-06-01same print as T01.0710.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-021.069-0.002-0.19%-0.45
+32022-06-031.073+0.002+0.17%+0.40
+72022-06-081.074+0.003+0.25%+0.60
+142022-06-151.043-0.028-2.62%-6.28
+302022-07-011.043-0.029-2.68%-6.42
+602022-07-291.020-0.051-4.80%-11.50
+902022-08-301.003-0.068-6.33%-15.16

One volatility unit for this series is 0.42%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0000.0002022-05-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−142022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−72022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−32022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
−12022-05-0100.000not publishednot published
T02022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+142022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+302022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+602022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+902022-08-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9011.740.00same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-05-01: 0 to 0.0593 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-08-01: 0 to 10.48 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-010–0.0593not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-05-010–0.0593not publishednot publishednot published
−72022-05-010–0.0593not publishednot publishednot published
−32022-05-010–0.0593not publishednot publishednot published
−12022-05-010–0.0593not publishednot publishednot published
T02022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+142022-06-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+302022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+602022-07-0100.000not publishednot published
+902022-08-010–10.48not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9096.6090.402022-05-01: 92.00 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 92.00 days of cover, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 96.00 days of cover, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 91.00 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-0192.000.0000.00%0.00
−142022-05-0192.000.0000.00%0.00
−72022-05-0192.000.0000.00%0.00
−32022-05-0192.000.0000.00%0.00
−12022-05-0192.000.0000.00%0.00
T02022-06-01same print as T092.000.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T092.000.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T092.000.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T092.000.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T092.000.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-0196.00+4.000+4.35%+2.75
+602022-07-0196.00+4.000+4.35%+2.75
+902022-08-0191.00-1.000-1.09%-0.69

One volatility unit for this series is 1.58%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7720.5802022-05-02: 0.6576 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.6754 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.7275 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.7496 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.7533 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.7214 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.6761 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.5990 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.6576-0.070-9.62%-1.20
−142022-05-160.6754-0.052-7.17%-0.90
−72022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−32022-05-230.6922-0.035-4.85%-0.61
−12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.72750.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.7496+0.022+3.04%+0.38
+142022-06-130.7533+0.026+3.54%+0.44
+302022-06-270.7214-0.006-0.84%-0.11
+602022-07-250.6761-0.051-7.07%-0.88
+902022-08-290.5990-0.129-17.67%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.00%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+903,358,1402,951,6952022-05-01: 3,318,807 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 3,212,844 tonnes, used for offsets T0, +1, +3, +7, +142022-07-01: 3,298,724 tonnes, used for offsets +30, +602022-08-01: 2,991,028 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-013,318,807+105,963+3.30%+0.57
−142022-05-013,318,807+105,963+3.30%+0.57
−72022-05-013,318,807+105,963+3.30%+0.57
−32022-05-013,318,807+105,963+3.30%+0.57
−12022-05-013,318,807+105,963+3.30%+0.57
T02022-06-01same print as T03,212,8440.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T03,212,8440.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-01same print as T03,212,8440.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-01same print as T03,212,8440.0000.00%0.00
+142022-06-01same print as T03,212,8440.0000.00%0.00
+302022-07-013,298,724+85,880+2.67%+0.46
+602022-07-013,298,724+85,880+2.67%+0.46
+902022-08-012,991,028-221,816-6.90%-1.19

One volatility unit for this series is 5.80%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (36 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.100-0.2012022-05-02: -0.1117 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: -0.0626 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: -0.0162 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.0707 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.0483 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.0190 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: -0.1370 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: -0.1717 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-02-0.1117-0.112not publishednot published
−142022-05-16-0.0626-0.063not publishednot published
−72022-05-23-0.0162-0.016not publishednot published
−32022-05-23-0.0162-0.016not publishednot published
−12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-05-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-06-060.0707+0.071not publishednot published
+142022-06-130.0483+0.048not publishednot published
+302022-06-270.0190+0.019not publishednot published
+602022-07-25-0.1370-0.137not publishednot published
+902022-08-29-0.1717-0.172not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902.2181.7342022-05-02: 1.878 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.952 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 2.016 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 2.055 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 2.171 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 2.170 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 2.101 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.895 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 1.781 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.878-0.177-8.61%-5.60
−142022-05-161.952-0.103-5.01%-3.26
−72022-05-232.016-0.039-1.90%-1.23
−32022-05-232.016-0.039-1.90%-1.23
−12022-05-30same print as T02.0550.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T02.0550.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T02.0550.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T02.0550.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-062.171+0.116+5.64%+3.67
+142022-06-132.170+0.115+5.60%+3.64
+302022-06-272.101+0.046+2.24%+1.45
+602022-07-251.895-0.160-7.79%-5.06
+902022-08-291.781-0.274-13.33%-8.66

One volatility unit for this series is 1.54%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.3380.9532022-05-02: 1.022 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 1.102 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 1.166 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 1.203 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 1.301 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 1.300 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 1.251 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 1.083 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.9906 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-021.022-0.181-15.04%-4.72
−142022-05-161.102-0.101-8.37%-2.63
−72022-05-231.166-0.036-3.03%-0.95
−32022-05-231.166-0.036-3.03%-0.95
−12022-05-30same print as T01.2030.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T01.2030.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T01.2030.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T01.2030.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-061.301+0.098+8.17%+2.56
+142022-06-131.300+0.097+8.11%+2.54
+302022-06-271.251+0.048+4.00%+1.25
+602022-07-251.083-0.119-9.93%-3.11
+902022-08-290.9906-0.212-17.63%-5.53

One volatility unit for this series is 3.19%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.8800.7812022-05-02: 0.8563 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-05-16: 0.8501 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-05-23: 0.8498 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3same print as T0 — 2022-05-30, 0.8524 € per litre, used for offsets −1, T0, +1, +32022-06-06: 0.8701 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-06-13: 0.8699 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-06-27: 0.8503 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-07-25: 0.8118 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-08-29: 0.7904 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-05-020.8563+0.004+0.46%+0.35
−142022-05-160.8501-0.002-0.27%-0.21
−72022-05-230.8498-0.003-0.30%-0.23
−32022-05-230.8498-0.003-0.30%-0.23
−12022-05-30same print as T00.85240.0000.00%0.00
T02022-05-30same print as T00.85240.0000.00%0.00
+12022-05-30same print as T00.85240.0000.00%0.00
+32022-05-30same print as T00.85240.0000.00%0.00
+72022-06-060.8701+0.018+2.08%+1.60
+142022-06-130.8699+0.018+2.05%+1.58
+302022-06-270.8503-0.002-0.25%-0.19
+602022-07-250.8118-0.041-4.77%-3.66
+902022-08-290.7904-0.062-7.27%-5.58

One volatility unit for this series is 1.30%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9069.569.002022-04-29: 35.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 48.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 47.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 51.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 47.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 57.64 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 63.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 40.73 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 40.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 30.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 14.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2935.83-21.818-37.85%-0.21
−142022-05-1848.89-8.756-15.19%-0.08
−72022-05-2547.31-10.338-17.93%-0.10
−32022-05-2751.09-6.550-11.36%-0.06
−12022-05-3147.09-10.554-18.31%-0.10
T02022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T057.640.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0363.70+6.054+10.50%+0.06
+72022-06-0854.93-2.716-4.71%-0.03
+142022-06-1540.73-16.914-29.34%-0.16
+302022-07-0140.89-16.750-29.06%-0.16
+602022-07-2930.91-26.732-46.37%-0.26
+902022-08-3014.86-42.786-74.22%-0.41

One volatility unit for this series is 181.24%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9087.9225.322022-04-29: 81.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-05-18: 35.78 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-05-25: 40.71 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-05-27: 40.59 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-05-31: 34.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-06-01, 42.99 $ per barrel, used for offsets T0, +12022-06-03: 46.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-06-08: 42.16 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-06-15: 56.44 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-07-01: 39.51 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-07-29: 31.37 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-08-30: 49.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-04-2981.86+38.872+90.43%+0.52
−142022-05-1835.78-7.202-16.75%-0.10
−72022-05-2540.71-2.274-5.29%-0.03
−32022-05-2740.59-2.392-5.56%-0.03
−12022-05-3134.70-8.286-19.28%-0.11
T02022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-06-01same print as T042.990.0000.00%0.00
+32022-06-0346.69+3.702+8.61%+0.05
+72022-06-0842.16-0.826-1.92%-0.01
+142022-06-1556.44+13.452+31.29%+0.18
+302022-07-0139.51-3.478-8.09%-0.05
+602022-07-2931.37-11.612-27.01%-0.15
+902022-08-3049.63+6.648+15.47%+0.09

One volatility unit for this series is 175.17%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (747 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2022-04-29Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2022-06-01. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022 really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Observed0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Observed0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed96.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)+4.35% from the level at T0 = +2.75 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed119.2 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)-2.45% from the level at T0 = -0.55 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed3,298,724 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-07-01)+2.67% from the level at T0 = +0.46 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed1.251 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+4.00% from the level at T0 = +1.25 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed2.101 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-06-27)+2.24% from the level at T0 = +1.45 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-05-25 to 2022-07-01 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Portugal, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/de-tankrabatt-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'de-tankrabatt-2022' and country 'portugal'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's pre-tax petrol price moved +8.2%, which is 2.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.3009300000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    8.201172918330652
    t0_value
    1.20263
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    8.17375252571448
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.563808687164939
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.09830000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.17375252571448
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1881288828742598
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.563808687164939
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.3009300000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    8.201172918330652
    t0_value
    1.20263
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    8.17375252571448
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.563808687164939
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.09830000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.17375252571448
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1881288828742598
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.563808687164939

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 539d408d052a0f4f6027b6b66cb121db3b716c4e161688b3b3461c3f8da7aeb7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's pre-tax petrol price moved +4.0%, which is 1.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.2507300000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    6.955536412510091
    t0_value
    1.20263
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.9995676143119687
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2545187980939327
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04810000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.9995676143119687
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1881288828742598
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2545187980939327
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.2507300000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    6.955536412510091
    t0_value
    1.20263
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    3.9995676143119687
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2545187980939327
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04810000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.9995676143119687
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1881288828742598
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2545187980939327

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ae59924608a5d2d2fb3c8fed1f0be310fa70c04f45cb739c5dc24d1490853d59 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's pre-tax petrol price moved -17.6%, which is 5.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.9905700000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    0.5000624413093563
    t0_value
    1.20263
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -17.633020962390763
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.530836929808716
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.21206000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    -17.633020962390763
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1881288828742598
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.530836929808716
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.9905700000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    0.5000624413093563
    t0_value
    1.20263
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -17.633020962390763
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.530836929808716
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.21206000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    -17.633020962390763
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1881288828742598
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.530836929808716

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c786fb405b51fc79552c9c446927ad073ce6b14041d3166eac71a41ff94907c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +5.6%, which is 3.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.1710000000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    4.413095267050734
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    5.644768856447693
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.666787542060087
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.1160000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.644768856447693
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5394316664652816
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.666787542060087
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.1710000000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    4.413095267050734
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    5.644768856447693
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.666787542060087
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.1160000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.644768856447693
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5394316664652816
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.666787542060087

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d28e9c13d05a5b39561b357d9b3653dc479c7a9879ab4c85a8b914376efc8439 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +2.2%, which is 1.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.101
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    2.8529100716287523
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.2384428223844193
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.4540709218514067
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04599999999999982
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.2384428223844193
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5394316664652816
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.4540709218514067
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.101
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    2.8529100716287523
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.2384428223844193
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.4540709218514067
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04599999999999982
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.2384428223844193
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5394316664652816
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.4540709218514067

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 905054df16709e56239a29e79fdf89d32a8875365ebe21d93cb35116c1c1a2d4 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -13.3%, which is 8.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.7810000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -4.279365107443131
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -13.333333333333334
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -8.66120505624537
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.274
    change_pct_from_t0
    -13.333333333333334
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5394316664652816
    change_in_volatility_units
    -8.66120505624537
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.7810000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -4.279365107443131
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -13.333333333333334
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -8.66120505624537
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.274
    change_pct_from_t0
    -13.333333333333334
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5394316664652816
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -8.66120505624537

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 33020a7e0879ac20781f669443d9788170b72095fa940c5b6c2ae12501d9bc80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-component petrol price moved +2.1%, which is 1.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8700700000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -18.382427871722115
    t0_value
    0.85237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.0765629949435422
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.595964684344732
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01770000000000027
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.0765629949435422
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3011334243878545
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.595964684344732
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8700700000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -18.382427871722115
    t0_value
    0.85237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.0765629949435422
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.595964684344732
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01770000000000027
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.0765629949435422
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3011334243878545
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.595964684344732

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f470eb4ac8bd3996aff3d0f12fed40d5316c9324fdff1f5ceeffa0cad3abbc37 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-component petrol price moved -0.2%, which is 0.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8502699999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -21.129120379210057
    t0_value
    0.85237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.24637188075602168
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.18935174221039822
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.002100000000000102
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.24637188075602168
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3011334243878545
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.18935174221039822
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.8502699999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -21.129120379210057
    t0_value
    0.85237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.24637188075602168
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.18935174221039822
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.002100000000000102
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.24637188075602168
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3011334243878545
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.18935174221039822

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8580937764bcbd4c6cc9f7a45fcac441904e3a8f448c79ec19c83150a709af81 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-component petrol price moved -7.3%, which is 5.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.79043
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -29.430235512951224
    t0_value
    0.85237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -7.266797282870114
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.584974720243569
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.061939999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.266797282870114
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3011334243878545
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.584974720243569
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.79043
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -29.430235512951224
    t0_value
    0.85237
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -7.266797282870114
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.584974720243569
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.061939999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.266797282870114
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.3011334243878545
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.584974720243569

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 631555acca8f861a891442978cc600bfd248aa193c555d71c4a81a3f81989dad · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's pre-tax diesel price moved +7.8%, which is 2.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.20298
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    1.9665862573634318
    t0_value
    1.1159000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    7.8035666278340186
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.462345044051444
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08707999999999982
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.8035666278340186
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1691604906005955
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.462345044051444
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.20298
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    1.9665862573634318
    t0_value
    1.1159000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    7.8035666278340186
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.462345044051444
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08707999999999982
    change_pct_from_t0
    7.8035666278340186
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1691604906005955
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.462345044051444

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 25d19390d3a82e3ce1e38dc933aa5d83c10d75e30970773bfa8994ee7789a504 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's pre-tax diesel price moved +20.7%, which is 6.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.34667
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    4.180831223102703
    t0_value
    1.1159000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    20.68016847387758
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.525440581255773
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.23076999999999992
    change_pct_from_t0
    20.68016847387758
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1691604906005955
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.525440581255773
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.34667
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    4.180831223102703
    t0_value
    1.1159000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    20.68016847387758
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.525440581255773
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.23076999999999992
    change_pct_from_t0
    20.68016847387758
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1691604906005955
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.525440581255773

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 7457bf749751f6106ce1843831829a36a9fb94ba9e37a405841cb67b121f80b8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's pre-tax diesel price moved +6.0%, which is 1.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.18326
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    1.6627035186594281
    t0_value
    1.1159000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    6.036383188457735
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9047262536438363
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06735999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.036383188457735
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1691604906005955
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9047262536438363
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.18326
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    1.6627035186594281
    t0_value
    1.1159000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    6.036383188457735
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9047262536438363
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.06735999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.036383188457735
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1691604906005955
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9047262536438363

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b56b139639b9ed6c4bc3f8424bbbe5a23fe6567aa9d6dfdaf2e3dcf5b55399cf · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +5.8%, which is 3.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.893
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -0.2064307657970364
    t0_value
    1.7890000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.813303521520395
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.141129633435397
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.10399999999999987
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.813303521520395
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8507047463566444
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.141129633435397
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.893
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -0.2064307657970364
    t0_value
    1.7890000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    5.813303521520395
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.141129633435397
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.10399999999999987
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.813303521520395
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8507047463566444
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.141129633435397

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 5ac67685557b050680e6020d92c347aa4b3bbe8bc919cd36cc345a7b377c6470 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +15.5%, which is 8.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.066
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    2.3186970865283487
    t0_value
    1.7890000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    15.483510340972591
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.36627796597697
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2769999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.483510340972591
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8507047463566444
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.36627796597697
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    2.066
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    2.3186970865283487
    t0_value
    1.7890000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    15.483510340972591
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.36627796597697
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2769999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.483510340972591
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8507047463566444
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.36627796597697

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0c71f9bde8599892bf22b798e27899e6283ae25e4b99ab0d417a5a6213cc5544 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +4.2%, which is 2.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.865
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -0.6151219788901631
    t0_value
    1.7890000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    4.248183342649516
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.2954408859720186
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07599999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.248183342649516
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8507047463566444
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.2954408859720186
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    1.865
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -0.6151219788901631
    t0_value
    1.7890000000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    4.248183342649516
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    2.2954408859720186
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.07599999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.248183342649516
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8507047463566444
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    2.2954408859720186

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 16a9b290b2af89ddef85a545f04dd3e0bcaf8784b4a5e3ca89798780e2741874 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-component diesel price moved +2.5%, which is 1.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.69002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -11.800205851337994
    t0_value
    0.6731
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.5137423859753283
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.6952837190575838
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.016919999999999935
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.5137423859753283
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4827856586582036
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.6952837190575838
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.69002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -11.800205851337994
    t0_value
    0.6731
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.5137423859753283
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.6952837190575838
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.016919999999999935
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.5137423859753283
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4827856586582036
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.6952837190575838

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 9bf3ab32b1640eb20ecdf0fa29d762687f6584d1148dd6198d81dc16b5228ba7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-component diesel price moved +6.9%, which is 4.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.71933
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -9.360444648392379
    t0_value
    0.6731
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    6.8682216609716225
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.631972005439266
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04622999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.8682216609716225
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4827856586582036
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.631972005439266
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.71933
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -9.360444648392379
    t0_value
    0.6731
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    6.8682216609716225
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.631972005439266
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04622999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.8682216609716225
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4827856586582036
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.631972005439266

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 7f1f846d3c93024251e728509412003882914e2a93dd8088cdcb4da46713a87a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, Portugal's tax-component diesel price moved +1.3%, which is 0.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about PortugalCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.68174
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -12.489432148178304
    t0_value
    0.6731
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.2836131332639995
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.865676792710257
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.008639999999999981
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.2836131332639995
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4827856586582036
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.865676792710257
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    0.68174
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    z_score
    -12.489432148178304
    t0_value
    0.6731
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.2836131332639995
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    TAX_COMPONENT_PT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-component
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.865676792710257
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.008639999999999981
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.2836131332639995
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.4827856586582036
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.865676792710257

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 52985ea7ef18da226babe5ef5d814ff5f13b2cf25fd808f8c128afe41306f472 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Portugal's pre-tax petrol price by +2.9 c/L (range +1.4–+4.4); it actually moved +4.8 c/L, leaving +1.9 c/L not explained by crude.

    about PortugalCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Portugal
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.019048174174520746
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.04810000000000003
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.029051825825479285
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.014350099188179333
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.04375355246277987
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Portugal
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.019048174174520746
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.04810000000000003
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.029051825825479285
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.0631714707771465
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -5.850000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.014350099188179333
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.04375355246277987
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 8c1408fbcdb196e7d6175e56454db1b27d2ac108ba99bfb1784af8f443e89d96 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Portugal's pre-tax petrol price by -4.0 c/L (range -9.2–+1.1); it actually moved -21.2 c/L, leaving -17.2 c/L not explained by crude.

    about PortugalCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Portugal
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.1716577451737371
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.21206000000000003
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.04040225482626292
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.09150436984165357
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.010699860189128003
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Portugal
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.1716577451737371
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.21206000000000003
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.04040225482626292
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.3403268500876152
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -31.516000000000002
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.09150436984165357
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.010699860189128003
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    181.24455741814873

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 5f0955d47e0a9799b979a7e784f685a98e29866cd31d289049a423893a7304f2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Over the 4 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Portugal's pre-tax diesel price by +6.0 c/L (range +3.7–+8.2); it actually moved +23.1 c/L, leaving +17.1 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 11.5 $/bbl.

    about PortugalCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Portugal
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.17103966285559674
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.23076999999999992
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.059730337144403185
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.03697623601979137
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.08248443826901486
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Portugal
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-06-27
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.17103966285559674
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.23076999999999992
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.059730337144403185
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.587160761067042
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    11.537999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.03697623601979137
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.08248443826901486
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint a376ebfb58804f4727aec959d02caf31d9de601162081328fc0c92a4d10426c2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. Over the 13 weeks after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, crude costs alone would have moved Portugal's pre-tax diesel price by +5.2 c/L (range -1.1–+11.5); it actually moved +6.7 c/L, leaving +1.5 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 19.3 $/bbl.

    about PortugalCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Portugal
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.015467223542574488
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.06735999999999986
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.05189277645742538
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.011188039068634359
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.11497359198348203
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Portugal
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-08-26
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-05-27
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-08-29
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.015467223542574488
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-05-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.06735999999999986
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.05189277645742538
    proxy_volatility_units
    4.337945231721529
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    19.345999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.011188039068634359
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.11497359198348203
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.342848145796136

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 21a76b02a42bb24388631f5a475954311602ec9c5cc0e267c8b846758b657168 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (0%) for Portugal in 2022-06.

    about PortugalCalculatedLow
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint fa239a5513d8679a381e1b00a3eea309bf3c41c32e9e428470c121f0f5679736 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%) for Portugal in 2022-06.

    about PortugalCalculatedLow
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint 48a24d1bff2ea852b1e51d355cca65c2151a551637d11197db9a997cbda97187 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Available evidence does not show a physical supply reduction: Portugal's reported crude imports in 2022-06 were +20.4% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Portugal
    change_pct
    20.438414436780842
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    917516
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    761813.4166666666
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    country
    Portugal
    change_pct
    20.438414436780842
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    917516
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    761813.4166666666
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.no_reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint 828425d968139a435084dbbd32e93768f2afeb49d495c6744a4ac7a9039a4d98 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. In 2022-06, Portugal's oil stocks stood 10.0% above their trailing 12-month mean, with 92.0 days of cover (as published).

    about PortugalCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_PT
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    days_of_cover
    92
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -3.1928039202038563
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    3212844
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    2920472.5
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    10.011102655477838
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    10.011102655477838
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    10
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-06
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Portugal
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_PT
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    days_of_cover
    92
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -3.1928039202038563
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-06-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    3212844
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    2920472.5
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    10.011102655477838
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.above v1.1 · Fingerprint 569065c82868affa1bf835afadd8c3c340499ce837492956cf2a6a55216b4bd2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Portugal around Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022: 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (0–0%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about PortugalUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Portugal
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    dependence_band
    limited
    dependence_range
    0–0%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    country
    Portugal
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    PT
    country_name
    Portugal
    country_slug
    portugal
    dependence_band
    limited
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    0–0%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint b9b373481aad803f34e7ebd736f361a7b5f49e6b53f7e23adcb3888601164bbe · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. In the 7 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved +5.7%, which is 1.3 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    129.2
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    2.0172282715868546
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    5.7283142389525255
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-06-08
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.999999999999986
    change_pct_from_t0
    5.7283142389525255
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2799598046880034

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f87dd225bc59dba803e038025a29e47ed148997fb21d856c0cd78839753ee67a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  29. In the 30 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -2.4%, which is 0.5 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    119.21
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.8887326572425913
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -2.4468085106383053
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-07-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -2.990000000000009
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.4468085106383053
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.5467256880024499

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fad3fa12c4cda01a6223521c8666f80ff0cc67ef8185a2d6e383ba814fecdcc1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  30. In the 90 days after Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022, the Brent crude benchmark moved -18.7%, which is 4.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    value
    99.34
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.355832693810513
    t0_value
    122.2
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -18.707037643207855
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-08-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -22.86
    change_pct_from_t0
    -18.707037643207855
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.4753860378832995
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.179983019309688

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c93fc5aedb651c26598bd6d9310189a42a1c8df629f57a43bf0be16cf35bb23 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  31. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 5682d55cccd2b29a396302436312a88aeeb0ee29362398f48b45370bc339e780 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  32. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f428e998d4f8e3f0b62ce0e589b72e73c5860218140f2727aa93741661c7d36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  33. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 56fb16ffc2601451cfda44b453655b8c4394e0f659ccd04a0f7a8a13e347bf80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  34. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-06-01T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Germany: temporary energy-tax reduction on road fuels (Tankrabatt), 2022
    event_slug
    de-tankrabatt-2022
    event_type
    TAX_CHANGE
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 98f34b162486945bf201f66ee3c233374109d50156f5d4ec98817b088ac4af77 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Portugal: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.