Fuel Origin

Events / Shipping disruption

Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)

Dates
2026-02-28 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf

What the sources said

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Verified
Retrieved 2026-09-23 07:22 UTCRevision 1
Source documents (7)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Slovenia, Diesel (automotive gas oil). 16 series can be drawn; 4 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

187 published readings, 21 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 52 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedHigh
T0−30T0+30+60+90130.763.52026-01-29: 71.00 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 69.96 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 72.75 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 70.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 71.32 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 83.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 95.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 103.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 121.9 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 124.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 92.88 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2971.00-0.320-0.45%-0.23
−142026-02-1369.96-1.360-1.91%-0.99
−72026-02-2072.75+1.430+2.01%+1.04
−32026-02-2570.69-0.630-0.88%-0.46
−12026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0383.28+11.960+16.77%+8.68
+72026-03-0695.74+24.420+34.24%+17.72
+142026-03-13103.2+31.910+44.74%+23.16
+302026-03-30121.9+50.560+70.89%+36.70
+602026-04-29124.2+52.840+74.09%+38.35
+902026-05-2992.88+21.560+30.23%+15.65

One volatility unit for this series is 1.93%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (756 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0000.0002026-01-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 0 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-0100.000not publishednot published
−142026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−72026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−32026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+72026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+142026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+302026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+602026-04-0100.000not publishednot published
+902026-05-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+901.3790.5022026-01-26: 0.5870 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6261 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6366 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6449 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6696 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.6869 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.016 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.264 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.294 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.5870-0.058-8.99%-0.26
−142026-02-090.6261-0.019-2.91%-0.09
−72026-02-160.6366-0.008-1.29%-0.04
−32026-02-23same print as T00.64490.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.64490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.64490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.64490.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6696+0.025+3.83%+0.11
+72026-03-020.6696+0.025+3.83%+0.11
+142026-03-090.6869+0.042+6.51%+0.19
+302026-03-301.016+0.371+57.56%+1.69
+602026-04-271.264+0.619+96.05%+2.82
+902026-05-251.294+0.649+100.68%+2.96

One volatility unit for this series is 34.03%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedHigh
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2031.1422026-01-29: 1.197 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 1.186 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 1.177 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 1.178 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 1.181 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 1.161 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 1.156 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 1.148 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.148 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 1.171 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 1.164 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-291.197+0.016+1.38%+3.12
−142026-02-131.186+0.006+0.48%+1.09
−72026-02-201.177-0.004-0.32%-0.73
−32026-02-251.178-0.002-0.18%-0.40
−12026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-031.161-0.020-1.69%-3.81
+72026-03-061.156-0.024-2.07%-4.67
+142026-03-131.148-0.033-2.79%-6.29
+302026-03-301.148-0.032-2.72%-6.14
+602026-04-291.171-0.010-0.84%-1.89
+902026-05-291.164-0.016-1.36%-3.08

One volatility unit for this series is 0.44%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (765 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30T0+30+60+901.120-0.120

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. The line stops at −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +60, +90 where no figure was published within one period of the offset.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−142026-02-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−72026-02-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−32026-02-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−12026-02-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
T02026-02-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+12026-03-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+32026-03-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+72026-03-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+142026-03-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+302026-03-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+602026-04-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+902026-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30T0+30+60+9021.200.00same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-01-01: 0 to 6.574 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-03-01: 0 to 7.278 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-04-01: 0 to 18.93 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-05-01: 0 to 11.91 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-010–6.574not publishednot publishednot published
−142026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−72026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−32026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-03-010–7.278not publishednot publishednot published
+32026-03-010–7.278not publishednot publishednot published
+72026-03-010–7.278not publishednot publishednot published
+142026-03-010–7.278not publishednot publishednot published
+302026-03-010–7.278not publishednot publishednot published
+602026-04-010–18.93not publishednot publishednot published
+902026-05-010–11.91not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30T0+30+60+90105.0101.92026-01-01: 102.5 days of cover, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 104.7 days of cover, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 102.2 days of cover, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 102.2 days of cover, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 102.2 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-01102.5-2.205-2.11%-0.83
−142026-02-01same print as T0104.70.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T0104.70.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T0104.70.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T0104.70.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T0104.70.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-01102.2-2.573-2.46%-0.97
+32026-03-01102.2-2.573-2.46%-0.97
+72026-03-01102.2-2.573-2.46%-0.97
+142026-03-01102.2-2.573-2.46%-0.97
+302026-03-01102.2-2.573-2.46%-0.97
+602026-04-01102.2-2.573-2.46%-0.97
+902026-05-01102.2-2.573-2.46%-0.97

One volatility unit for this series is 2.52%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

One volatility unit for this series is 3.66%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30T0+30+60+90746,400690,6002026-01-01: 741,000 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 737,000 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 700,000 tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 696,000 tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 714,000 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-01741,000+4,000+0.54%+0.15
−142026-02-01same print as T0737,0000.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T0737,0000.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T0737,0000.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T0737,0000.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T0737,0000.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-01700,000-37,000-5.02%-1.39
+32026-03-01700,000-37,000-5.02%-1.39
+72026-03-01700,000-37,000-5.02%-1.39
+142026-03-01700,000-37,000-5.02%-1.39
+302026-03-01700,000-37,000-5.02%-1.39
+602026-04-01696,000-41,000-5.56%-1.54
+902026-05-01714,000-23,000-3.12%-0.86

One volatility unit for this series is 3.61%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30T0+30+60+900.046-0.3242026-01-26: 0.0100 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.0009 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: -0.0013 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: -0.0239 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: -0.0399 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: -0.0479 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: -0.1556 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: -0.2884 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.0100+0.010not publishednot published
−142026-02-090.0009+0.001not publishednot published
−72026-02-16-0.0013-0.001not publishednot published
−32026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-02-0.0239-0.024not publishednot published
+72026-03-02-0.0239-0.024not publishednot published
+142026-03-09-0.0399-0.040not publishednot published
+302026-03-30-0.0479-0.048not publishednot published
+602026-04-27-0.1556-0.156not publishednot published
+902026-05-25-0.2884-0.288not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30T0+30+60+901.8381.3542026-01-26: 1.401 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 1.438 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 1.448 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.460 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.461 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.462 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.620 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.791 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.751 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-261.401-0.059-4.01%-3.89
−142026-02-091.438-0.022-1.50%-1.45
−72026-02-161.448-0.012-0.80%-0.78
−32026-02-23same print as T01.4600.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T01.4600.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T01.4600.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T01.4600.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.461+0.001+0.06%+0.06
+72026-03-021.461+0.001+0.06%+0.06
+142026-03-091.462+0.002+0.17%+0.17
+302026-03-301.620+0.160+10.97%+10.63
+602026-04-271.791+0.332+22.72%+22.01
+902026-05-251.751+0.291+19.96%+19.33

One volatility unit for this series is 1.03%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30T0+30+60+901.1700.5352026-01-26: 0.5969 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6270 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6353 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6449 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6457 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.6470 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.9682 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.109 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.006 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.5969-0.048-7.44%-3.36
−142026-02-090.6270-0.018-2.78%-1.25
−72026-02-160.6353-0.010-1.49%-0.67
−32026-02-23same print as T00.64490.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.64490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.64490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.64490.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6457+0.001+0.12%+0.05
+72026-03-020.6457+0.001+0.12%+0.05
+142026-03-090.6470+0.002+0.32%+0.14
+302026-03-300.9682+0.323+50.13%+22.61
+602026-04-271.109+0.464+71.93%+32.44
+902026-05-251.006+0.361+55.96%+25.24

One volatility unit for this series is 2.22%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30T0+30+60+900.8350.6322026-01-26: 0.8042 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.8108 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.8127 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.8148 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8149 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8152 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6517 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6826 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.7453 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.8042-0.011-1.30%-0.96
−142026-02-090.8108-0.004-0.48%-0.36
−72026-02-160.8127-0.002-0.26%-0.19
−32026-02-23same print as T00.81480.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.81480.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.81480.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.81480.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8149+0.000+0.02%+0.02
+72026-03-020.8149+0.000+0.02%+0.02
+142026-03-090.8152+0.000+0.06%+0.04
+302026-03-300.6517-0.163-20.02%-14.77
+602026-04-270.6826-0.132-16.22%-11.97
+902026-05-250.7453-0.070-8.53%-6.30

One volatility unit for this series is 1.36%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9071.0527.842026-01-29: 32.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 32.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 37.84 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 43.84 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 41.49 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 52.13 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 58.90 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 66.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 66.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 55.17 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2932.03-9.466-22.81%-3.77
−142026-02-1332.27-9.224-22.23%-3.68
−72026-02-2037.84-3.656-8.81%-1.46
−32026-02-2543.84+2.352+5.67%+0.94
−12026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0352.13+10.636+25.63%+4.24
+72026-03-0658.90+17.412+41.96%+6.94
+142026-03-1366.83+25.336+61.06%+10.10
+302026-03-3066.87+25.376+61.16%+10.12
+602026-04-2954.93+13.436+32.38%+5.36
+902026-05-2955.17+13.678+32.97%+5.45

One volatility unit for this series is 6.05%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9044.976.732026-01-29: 19.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 10.43 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 11.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 13.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 15.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 19.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 20.56 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 25.33 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 21.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 34.94 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 41.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2919.97+4.100+25.83%+0.93
−142026-02-1310.43-5.444-34.30%-1.23
−72026-02-2011.42-4.454-28.06%-1.00
−32026-02-2513.39-2.478-15.61%-0.56
−12026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0319.87+4.000+25.20%+0.90
+72026-03-0620.56+4.686+29.52%+1.06
+142026-03-1325.33+9.460+59.60%+2.13
+302026-03-3021.09+5.216+32.86%+1.18
+602026-04-2934.94+19.064+120.11%+4.30
+902026-05-2941.27+25.396+160.01%+5.73

One volatility unit for this series is 27.92%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30T0+30+60+9062.7117.062026-01-29: 23.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 21.47 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 27.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 33.05 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 30.66 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 41.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 48.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 56.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 56.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 58.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 43.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2923.42-7.240-23.62%-2.64
−142026-02-1321.47-9.182-29.95%-3.35
−72026-02-2027.04-3.614-11.79%-1.32
−32026-02-2533.05+2.394+7.81%+0.87
−12026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0341.29+10.636+34.69%+3.88
+72026-03-0648.07+17.412+56.80%+6.35
+142026-03-1356.03+25.378+82.78%+9.26
+302026-03-3056.07+25.418+82.91%+9.28
+602026-04-2958.29+27.632+90.14%+10.08
+902026-05-2943.07+12.418+40.51%+4.53

One volatility unit for this series is 8.94%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2026-01Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2026-02-28. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Nothing published in the window
not published
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only
0–7.278 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2026-03) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed
102.2 days of cover at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)-2.46% from the level at T0 = -0.97 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed
121.9 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+70.89% from the level at T0 = +36.70 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed
700,000 tonnes at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)-5.02% from the level at T0 = -1.39 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed
0.9682 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+50.13% from the level at T0 = +22.61 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed
1.620 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+10.97% from the level at T0 = +10.63 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2026-02-21 to 2026-03-30 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Slovenia, diesel (automotive gas oil)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'slovenia'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's pre-tax petrol price moved +0.9%, which is 0.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.5699280327868852
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    0.019157045851385033
    t0_value
    0.564698524590164
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.926070809290065
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.4507088186763441
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.005229508196721189
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.926070809290065
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.054698667777966
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.4507088186763441
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.5699280327868852
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    0.019157045851385033
    t0_value
    0.564698524590164
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.926070809290065
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.4507088186763441
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.005229508196721189
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.926070809290065
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.054698667777966
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.4507088186763441

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 045ee5c02adb2e533af995207b24f6bdeefdf4651dd239ba5cb14d4bb76f5f90 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's pre-tax petrol price moved +29.6%, which is 14.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7319449180327869
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    5.217823579535825
    t0_value
    0.564698524590164
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    29.61693472884559
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.414247302196646
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.16724639344262293
    change_pct_from_t0
    29.61693472884559
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.054698667777966
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.414247302196646
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7319449180327869
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    5.217823579535825
    t0_value
    0.564698524590164
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    29.61693472884559
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.414247302196646
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.16724639344262293
    change_pct_from_t0
    29.61693472884559
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.054698667777966
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.414247302196646

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f539979067c62ccf1fc62734db086bf7ccefb12d56b533a753bcc0761787b5ab · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's pre-tax petrol price moved +55.5%, which is 27.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8783834426229508
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    9.916624299433428
    t0_value
    0.564698524590164
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    55.549094671434986
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    27.03515388536657
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.31368491803278675
    change_pct_from_t0
    55.549094671434986
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.054698667777966
    change_in_volatility_units
    27.03515388536657
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8783834426229508
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    9.916624299433428
    t0_value
    0.564698524590164
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    55.549094671434986
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    27.03515388536657
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.31368491803278675
    change_pct_from_t0
    55.549094671434986
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.054698667777966
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    27.03515388536657

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 97092f98bbf83019030c20222f65841d0141089abfcc8fa767f311e109534b1b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +0.4%, which is 0.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.42608
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    0.17838369507593096
    t0_value
    1.4197000000000002
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.4493907163485123
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.4566574087985939
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.00637999999999983
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.4493907163485123
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.984087212185609
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.4566574087985939
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.42608
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    0.17838369507593096
    t0_value
    1.4197000000000002
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.4493907163485123
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.4566574087985939
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.00637999999999983
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.4493907163485123
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.984087212185609
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.4566574087985939

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 220c590465791effe30fb24f23495bf57064023ec67f778313175094a9a69e6c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +6.1%, which is 6.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.50695
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    2.6940396684747663
    t0_value
    1.4197000000000002
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    6.145664577023302
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.2450405827081985
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08724999999999983
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.145664577023302
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.984087212185609
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.2450405827081985
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.50695
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    2.6940396684747663
    t0_value
    1.4197000000000002
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    6.145664577023302
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    6.2450405827081985
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.08724999999999983
    change_pct_from_t0
    6.145664577023302
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.984087212185609
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    6.2450405827081985

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 74a06231d869138e8811760ebe4b9d8f5e547754669b56f7b94f8c9c9de61e4a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +19.7%, which is 20.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.69933
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    8.678482554124178
    t0_value
    1.4197000000000002
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    19.69641473550749
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    20.01490771510253
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2796299999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.69641473550749
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.984087212185609
    change_in_volatility_units
    20.01490771510253
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.69933
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    8.678482554124178
    t0_value
    1.4197000000000002
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    19.69641473550749
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    20.01490771510253
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2796299999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.69641473550749
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.984087212185609
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    20.01490771510253

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b9e905ad9d2a1c4c6a44ae657475fb8d83012fbb935b5a2cd50f94c0c2662545 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's pre-tax diesel price moved +0.1%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.6456795081967213
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    0.0396332038899031
    t0_value
    0.6449254098360657
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.11692799650229735
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.05273530899930144
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0007540983606555418
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.11692799650229735
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2172619962053552
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.05273530899930144
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.6456795081967213
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    0.0396332038899031
    t0_value
    0.6449254098360657
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.11692799650229735
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.05273530899930144
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0007540983606555418
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.11692799650229735
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2172619962053552
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.05273530899930144

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint bb45de22dc4db6a4e58258f473fc70dc6f1e4d44300f05ea7f4552a3f8c17d52 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's pre-tax diesel price moved +50.1%, which is 22.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9682186885245904
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    7.674295194831167
    t0_value
    0.6449254098360657
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    50.12878602049545
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    22.608417997641396
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.32329327868852464
    change_pct_from_t0
    50.12878602049545
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2172619962053552
    change_in_volatility_units
    22.608417997641396
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9682186885245904
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    7.674295194831167
    t0_value
    0.6449254098360657
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    50.12878602049545
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    22.608417997641396
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.32329327868852464
    change_pct_from_t0
    50.12878602049545
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2172619962053552
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    22.608417997641396

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 69cb9f03c72be654366be5b512a533e3d5a570cfc3e6c2afb7fe93d0c9444ae8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's pre-tax diesel price moved +56.0%, which is 25.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.005821475409836
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    8.56437176628652
    t0_value
    0.6449254098360657
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    55.95934972782463
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    25.238041252497013
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3608960655737703
    change_pct_from_t0
    55.95934972782463
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2172619962053552
    change_in_volatility_units
    25.238041252497013
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.005821475409836
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    8.56437176628652
    t0_value
    0.6449254098360657
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    55.95934972782463
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    25.238041252497013
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3608960655737703
    change_pct_from_t0
    55.95934972782463
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.2172619962053552
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    25.238041252497013

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d5a42dd67908cecae747faaea04f5585d6552a962060214e5cdca9c614298039 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +0.1%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.46062
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    0.3371875334149536
    t0_value
    1.4597
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.06302664931150455
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.06104741744236204
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0009200000000000319
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.06302664931150455
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0324212219298416
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.06104741744236204
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.46062
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    0.3371875334149536
    t0_value
    1.4597
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    0.06302664931150455
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.06104741744236204
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0009200000000000319
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.06302664931150455
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0324212219298416
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.06104741744236204

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4c367f0be1a1f7e572580e511a81d664f6561025fb0b5d11c3d95fc5f451d163 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +11.0%, which is 10.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.61989
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    4.568058734596613
    t0_value
    1.4597
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    10.97417277522779
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    10.629549782708304
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.16019000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    10.97417277522779
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0324212219298416
    change_in_volatility_units
    10.629549782708304
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.61989
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    4.568058734596613
    t0_value
    1.4597
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    10.97417277522779
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    10.629549782708304
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.16019000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    10.97417277522779
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0324212219298416
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    10.629549782708304

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e2f7f7a1742226dcb0df59fdb12bcadd26443b912953da915769c129086923d9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Slovenia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +20.0%, which is 19.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.75108
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    8.053008774673348
    t0_value
    1.4597
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    19.961635952592996
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    19.334778798211776
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.29138
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.961635952592996
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0324212219298416
    change_in_volatility_units
    19.334778798211776
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.75108
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    z_score
    8.053008774673348
    t0_value
    1.4597
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    19.961635952592996
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_SI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    19.334778798211776
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.29138
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.961635952592996
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0324212219298416
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    19.334778798211776

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 5bbfae16645a63a1338d495d2ebdcc9a03e247810992f2ef4a973c593ef4ce9a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. Over the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Slovenia's pre-tax petrol price by +13.7 c/L (range +6.9–+20.5); it actually moved +6.2 c/L, leaving -7.5 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 9.9 $/bbl.

    about SloveniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovenia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.07535926939894222
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.061884754098360584
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.1372440234973028
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.06915176365858351
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.20533628333602164
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovenia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.07535926939894222
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.061884754098360584
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.1372440234973028
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.06915176365858351
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.20533628333602164
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint f9e0978a099bfd6023dfc2ce72610b129d151ec703bbfad7eb50695c4ea4ef11 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. Over the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Slovenia's pre-tax petrol price by +42.0 c/L (range +21.4–+62.6); it actually moved +31.4 c/L, leaving -10.6 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 27.0 $/bbl.

    about SloveniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovenia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.10644681021579866
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.31368491803278675
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.4201317282485854
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.21399168637608315
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.6262717701210888
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovenia
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.10644681021579866
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.31368491803278675
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.4201317282485854
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.21399168637608315
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.6262717701210888
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 326b274781b41988001e1ea5a5a5bc8385b848b47b2efc01d5516a881f65197f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Over the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Slovenia's pre-tax diesel price by +21.0 c/L (range +7.8–+34.1); it actually moved +12.9 c/L, leaving -8.1 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 28.8 $/bbl.

    about SloveniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovenia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.0806799923675357
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.1289199999999998
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.20959999236753551
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.0780933236925697
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.3411066610425017
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovenia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.0806799923675357
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.1289199999999998
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.20959999236753551
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.0780933236925697
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.3411066610425017
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint eaedba8e3c89d3e1ab82204e6fe1fc608695401c05baffad1cbd5a0cfaef2aba · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Over the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Slovenia's pre-tax diesel price by +64.9 c/L (range +23.7–+106.2); it actually moved +36.1 c/L, leaving -28.8 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 16.0 $/bbl.

    about SloveniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovenia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.28839438220164804
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.3608960655737703
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.6492904477754183
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.23659980208668277
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    1.0619810934641487
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Slovenia
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_SI_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.28839438220164804
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.3608960655737703
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.6492904477754183
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.23659980208668277
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    1.0619810934641487
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 063853e15f93522445f0c28a0c180df5f144b0fd5b2f18b802766a6e94441a26 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude for Slovenia in 2026-02 is UNKNOWN: the source reports zero imports for this period, so there is no volume to take a share of - this is a reported zero, not missing data.

    about SloveniaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Slovenia
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    value_max_pct
    null
    value_min_pct
    null
    exposure_status
    UNKNOWN
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Slovenia
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    value_max_pct
    null
    value_min_pct
    null
    exposure_status
    UNKNOWN
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 515d18c9bc88e0916bb1681208549e40c9772f445a7f73100d667fd363622d5c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%) for Slovenia in 2026-02.

    about SloveniaCalculatedLow
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint 6a2dfa0d3aa8d3789bf436d17086ac91c5b68fc7ed0c09eaaf0369a5d006c352 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Whether Slovenia's crude supply was physically reduced in 2026-02 is UNKNOWN: only 12 month(s) of comparison data, fewer than the 6 required.

    about SloveniaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Slovenia
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    0
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    0
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Slovenia
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    0
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 4fea2c556e6f56db420bfc5a12cde35cc978f937f58bf5ef5d54f539013b2dd5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In 2026-02, Slovenia's oil stocks stood 2.2% above their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 104.7 days of cover (as published).

    about SloveniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_SI
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    days_of_cover
    104.732
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -0.5398110661268556
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    737000
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    721250
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    2.1837088388214907
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    2.1837088388214907
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    2.2
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Slovenia
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_SI
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    days_of_cover
    104.732
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -0.5398110661268556
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    737000
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    721250
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    2.1837088388214907
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint 862660981016190968a43a4743f13cceae67069d126a1d29cb4bd90fe2cb0356 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Slovenia around Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about SloveniaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Slovenia
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    dependence_band
    null
    dependence_range
    null
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Slovenia
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    SI
    country_name
    Slovenia
    country_slug
    slovenia
    dependence_band
    null
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    null
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 9e7242eea406dda96994f8e7c30cf04eeb97cb6eedbffe89f1c08591fc416f86 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +34.2%, which is 17.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +70.9%, which is 36.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +30.2%, which is 15.6 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Slovenia: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.