Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In October 2025, Belgium's road diesel supply was 1,289 kt: 48% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from the Netherlands (35%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (20%), Kazakhstan (14%) and the United States (14%), and 19% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway256 kt (est. 20%)Kazakhstan184 kt (est. 14%)United States175 kt (est. 14%)Brazil89 kt (est. 7%)United Kingdom54 kt (est. 4%)Nigeria51 kt (est. 4%)Guyana38 kt (est. 3%)Other crude origins197 kt (est. 15%)Singapore: no crude data64 kt (5%)India: no crude data54 kt (4%)Belgium: crude origin not reported51 kt (4%)United States: no crude data36 kt (3%)Netherlands: crude origin not reported26 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports8.5 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported4.4 kt (<1%)Belgium (own refineries)623 kt (48%)Netherlands452 kt (35%)Singapore64 kt (5%)India54 kt (4%)Germany53 kt (4%)United States36 kt (3%)Finland6.5 kt (<1%)France0.3 kt (<1%)Belgium: road diesel supply1.29 Mt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Belgium (own refineries)
- Netherlands
- Singapore
- India
- Germany
- United States
- Finland
- France
- Norway256 kt (est. 20%)
- Kazakhstan184 kt (est. 14%)
- United States175 kt (est. 14%)
- Brazil89 kt (est. 7%)
- United Kingdom54 kt (est. 4%)
- Nigeria51 kt (est. 4%)
- Guyana38 kt (est. 3%)
- Other crude origins197 kt (est. 15%)
- Singapore: no crude data64 kt (5%)
- India: no crude data54 kt (4%)
- Belgium: crude origin not reported51 kt (4%)
- United States: no crude data36 kt (3%)
- Netherlands: crude origin not reported26 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports8.5 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported4.4 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Oct 2025)
8.5 thousand tonnes
<1% of Belgium's road diesel supply
Unknown
Last shipped from
- Belgium (own refineries)7.3 kt (86%)
- Germany1.2 kt (14%)
- Franceless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium (own refineries) | Belgium: road diesel supply | 623,100 | 48.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Netherlands | Belgium: road diesel supply | 451,700 | 35.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Singapore | Belgium: road diesel supply | 64,200 | 5.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| India | Belgium: road diesel supply | 53,900 | 4.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Germany | Belgium: road diesel supply | 53,200 | 4.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Belgium: road diesel supply | 36,400 | 2.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Belgium: road diesel supply | 6,500 | 0.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Belgium (own refineries) | 144,499 | 23.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Belgium split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium (own refineries) | 113,053 | 18.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Belgium split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium (own refineries) | 111,599 | 17.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Belgium split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 98,809 | 21.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Belgium split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 94,461 | 20.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Belgium split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium (own refineries) | 73,311 | 11.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Belgium split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 67,971 | 15.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Belgium split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Singapore: no crude data | Singapore | 64,200 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 63,549 | 14.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Belgium split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| India: no crude data | India | 53,900 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Belgium: crude origin not reported | Belgium (own refineries) | 51,072 | 8.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Brazil | Belgium (own refineries) | 50,563 | 8.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Belgium split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Netherlands | 37,799 | 8.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Belgium split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Belgium (own refineries) | 37,467 | 6.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Belgium split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 36,487 | 8.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Belgium split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 36,400 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 26,416 | 5.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Belgium split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Netherlands: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 26,209 | 5.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Belgium (own refineries) | 22,070 | 3.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Belgium split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 17,001 | 32.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Belgium split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium (own refineries) | 12,168 | 2.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Belgium split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 7,372 | 13.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Belgium split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 7,360 | 13.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Belgium split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Belgium (own refineries) | 7,297 | 1.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Germany | 7,201 | 13.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Belgium split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 5,140 | 9.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Belgium split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 5,012 | 77.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Belgium split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 4,374 | 8.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Nigeria | Germany | 2,683 | 5.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Belgium split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 1,228 | 2.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Brazil | Germany | 843 | 1.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Belgium split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 497 | 7.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Belgium split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Other crude origins | Finland | 395 | 6.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Belgium split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Guyana | Finland | 320 | 4.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Belgium split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Finland | 275 | 4.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Belgium split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Other crude origins | France | 100 | 33.2% | EstimatedEstimate: France's road diesel to Belgium split by France's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | France | 58 | 19.4% | EstimatedEstimate: France's road diesel to Belgium split by France's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | France | 51 | 17.0% | EstimatedEstimate: France's road diesel to Belgium split by France's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | France | 33 | 11.0% | EstimatedEstimate: France's road diesel to Belgium split by France's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | France | 32 | 10.5% | EstimatedEstimate: France's road diesel to Belgium split by France's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | France | 16 | 5.2% | EstimatedEstimate: France's road diesel to Belgium split by France's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | France | 8 | 2.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | France | 1 | 0.4% | EstimatedEstimate: France's road diesel to Belgium split by France's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | France | 1 | 0.3% | EstimatedEstimate: France's road diesel to Belgium split by France's crude-import mix over 2025-08 to 2025-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | France | 0 | 0.2% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2025-10 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-10 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Belgium’s supply of road diesel in 2025-10, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-10 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-08 to 2025-10.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Singapore: no crude data (64,200 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- India: no crude data (53,900 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Belgium: crude origin not reported (51,072 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- United States: no crude data (36,400 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Netherlands: crude origin not reported (26,209 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (8,534 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (4,374 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.