Fuel Origin

Flows

How oil reaches each country

Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.

In December 2023, Italy's road diesel supply was 2,346 kt: 87% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Saudi Arabia (7%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Azerbaijan (14%), Libya (13%) and the United States (10%), and 22% cannot be traced.

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  • Reported (solid)
  • Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
  • Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
  • Cannot be traced (hatched)

Kazakhstan → Italy

Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Dec 2023)

213.4 thousand tonnes

est. 9% of Italy's road diesel supply

less than 0.1 kt reported213 kt estimated

Inferred · medium

Last shipped from

  • Italy (own refineries)213 kt (est. 100%)
  • Netherlands0.4 kt (est. <1%)
  • Belgiumless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)

Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm

View Kazakhstan profile →

The numbers as a table
Reported: where Italy's road diesel came from
FromToTonnesShareHow we know
Italy (own refineries)Italy: road diesel supply2,031,01986.6%ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output)
Saudi ArabiaItaly: road diesel supply162,7396.9%ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis)
KuwaitItaly: road diesel supply62,9212.7%ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis)
EgyptItaly: road diesel supply49,6362.1%ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis)
TürkiyeItaly: road diesel supply32,9751.4%ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis)
NetherlandsItaly: road diesel supply6,3520.3%ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis)
Estimate: the crude oil behind each supplier's fuel
FromToTonnesShareHow we know
AzerbaijanItaly (own refineries)322,07315.9%EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
Other crude originsItaly (own refineries)318,76315.7%EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
LibyaItaly (own refineries)316,23515.6%EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
United StatesItaly (own refineries)222,78911.0%EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
IraqItaly (own refineries)217,23210.7%EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
KazakhstanItaly (own refineries)212,97410.5%EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
Saudi Arabia: no crude dataSaudi Arabia162,739100.0%UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
NigeriaItaly (own refineries)116,8665.8%EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
Saudi ArabiaItaly (own refineries)103,2655.1%EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
Italy: crude not from importsItaly (own refineries)102,4025.0%UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
Italy: crude origin not reportedItaly (own refineries)98,4204.8%UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
Kuwait: no crude dataKuwait62,921100.0%UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
Egypt: no crude dataEgypt49,636100.0%UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
Türkiye: no crude dataTürkiye32,975100.0%UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
Other crude originsNetherlands2,22835.1%EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
United StatesNetherlands1,71627.0%EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
NigeriaNetherlands69911.0%EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
IraqNetherlands68510.8%EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
KazakhstanNetherlands4296.7%EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedNetherlands4006.3%UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
Other crude originsSlovakia361100.0%EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Italy split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
Saudi ArabiaNetherlands1953.1%EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
Other crude originsBelgium9044.1%EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
United StatesBelgium3718.1%EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
NigeriaBelgium2412.0%EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
KazakhstanBelgium199.2%EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedBelgium188.9%UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
IraqBelgium136.3%EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
Saudi ArabiaBelgium31.3%EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium.
Smaller flows: crude not from importsBelgium10.3%UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.

2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.

Source & method
Source
EurostatInferred · medium
Period 2023-12 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV

Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Italy’s supply of road diesel in 2023-12, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.

Month: 2023-12 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2023-10 to 2023-12.

Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason

  • Saudi Arabia: no crude data (162,739 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
  • Italy: crude not from imports (102,402 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
  • Italy: crude origin not reported (98,420 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
  • Kuwait: no crude data (62,921 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
  • Egypt: no crude data (49,636 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
  • Türkiye: no crude data (32,975 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
  • Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (418 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
  • Smaller flows: crude not from imports (1 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
  • Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
  • Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
  • The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
  • Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.

Italy: country page