Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In December 2023, Italy's road diesel supply was 2,346 kt: 87% from its own refineries, with imports mainly from Saudi Arabia (7%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Azerbaijan (14%), Libya (13%) and the United States (10%), and 22% cannot be traced.
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Italy (own refineries)
- Saudi Arabia
- Kuwait
- Egypt
- Türkiye
- Netherlands
- Slovakia
- Belgium
- Azerbaijan322 kt (est. 14%)
- Libya316 kt (est. 13%)
- United States225 kt (est. 10%)
- Iraq218 kt (est. 9%)
- Kazakhstan213 kt (est. 9%)
- Nigeria118 kt (est. 5%)
- Saudi Arabia103 kt (est. 4%)
- Other crude origins321 kt (est. 14%)
- Saudi Arabia: no crude data163 kt (7%)
- Italy: crude not from imports102 kt (4%)
- Italy: crude origin not reported98 kt (4%)
- Kuwait: no crude data63 kt (3%)
- Egypt: no crude data50 kt (2%)
- Türkiye: no crude data33 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.4 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Dec 2023)
213.4 thousand tonnes
est. 9% of Italy's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported213 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Italy (own refineries)213 kt (est. 100%)
- Netherlands0.4 kt (est. <1%)
- Belgiumless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy (own refineries) | Italy: road diesel supply | 2,031,019 | 86.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_cb_oilm (refinery output) |
| Saudi Arabia | Italy: road diesel supply | 162,739 | 6.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Kuwait | Italy: road diesel supply | 62,921 | 2.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Egypt | Italy: road diesel supply | 49,636 | 2.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Türkiye | Italy: road diesel supply | 32,975 | 1.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Italy: road diesel supply | 6,352 | 0.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | Italy (own refineries) | 322,073 | 15.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Italy (own refineries) | 318,763 | 15.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Italy (own refineries) | 316,235 | 15.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Italy (own refineries) | 222,789 | 11.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Italy (own refineries) | 217,232 | 10.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Italy (own refineries) | 212,974 | 10.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia: no crude data | Saudi Arabia | 162,739 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Nigeria | Italy (own refineries) | 116,866 | 5.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Italy (own refineries) | 103,265 | 5.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Italy's road diesel to Italy split by Italy's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Italy: crude not from imports | Italy (own refineries) | 102,402 | 5.0% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Italy: crude origin not reported | Italy (own refineries) | 98,420 | 4.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Kuwait: no crude data | Kuwait | 62,921 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Egypt: no crude data | Egypt | 49,636 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Türkiye: no crude data | Türkiye | 32,975 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 2,228 | 35.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 1,716 | 27.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Netherlands | 699 | 11.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Iraq | Netherlands | 685 | 10.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 429 | 6.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 400 | 6.3% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Slovakia | 361 | 100.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Italy split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 195 | 3.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Italy split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 90 | 44.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 37 | 18.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Belgium | 24 | 12.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Belgium | 19 | 9.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 18 | 8.9% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Iraq | Belgium | 13 | 6.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Belgium | 3 | 1.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Italy split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2023-10 to 2023-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Belgium | 1 | 0.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2023-12 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Italy’s supply of road diesel in 2023-12, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2023-12 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2023-10 to 2023-12.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Saudi Arabia: no crude data (162,739 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Italy: crude not from imports (102,402 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Italy: crude origin not reported (98,420 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Kuwait: no crude data (62,921 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Egypt: no crude data (49,636 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Türkiye: no crude data (32,975 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (418 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (1 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.