Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In September 2023, Latvia's road diesel supply was 101 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (68%) and Finland (26%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (32%), Saudi Arabia (26%) and the United States (21%), and 14% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway33 kt (est. 32%)Saudi Arabia26 kt (est. 26%)United States21 kt (est. 21%)United Kingdom4.7 kt (est. 5%)Algeria2.3 kt (est. 2%)Kazakhstanless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)Libyaless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)Other crude originsless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)United States: no crude data4.0 kt (4%)Finland: crude not from imports3.8 kt (4%)Lithuania: crude not from imports3.2 kt (3%)Smaller flows: no crude data1.7 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.0 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: no refinery0.2 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania69 kt (68%)Finland26 kt (26%)United States4.0 kt (4%)India0.9 kt (<1%)United Arab Emirates0.7 kt (<1%)Estonia0.2 kt (<1%)Saudi Arabia0.1 kt (<1%)Germanyless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Latvia: road diesel supply101 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- Finland
- United States
- India
- United Arab Emirates
- Estonia
- Saudi Arabia
- Germany
- Norway33 kt (est. 32%)
- Saudi Arabia26 kt (est. 26%)
- United States21 kt (est. 21%)
- United Kingdom4.7 kt (est. 5%)
- Algeria2.3 kt (est. 2%)
- Kazakhstanless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Libyaless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude originsless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- United States: no crude data4.0 kt (4%)
- Finland: crude not from imports3.8 kt (4%)
- Lithuania: crude not from imports3.2 kt (3%)
- Smaller flows: no crude data1.7 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported1.0 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no refinery0.2 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Sep 2023)
2.3 thousand tonnes
est. 2% of Latvia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported2.3 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Lithuania2.3 kt (est. 100%)
- Germanyless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Latvia: road diesel supply | 68,970 | 68.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Latvia: road diesel supply | 26,074 | 25.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Latvia: road diesel supply | 3,969 | 3.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| India | Latvia: road diesel supply | 907 | 0.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United Arab Emirates | Latvia: road diesel supply | 707 | 0.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Estonia | Latvia: road diesel supply | 231 | 0.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 25,787 | 37.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 18,353 | 26.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 16,710 | 24.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 16,084 | 61.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 3,969 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Finland: crude not from imports | Finland | 3,832 | 14.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Lithuania: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 3,210 | 4.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Finland | 3,128 | 12.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 2,648 | 3.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 2,262 | 3.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 2,056 | 7.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Finland | 974 | 3.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | India | 907 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | United Arab Emirates | 707 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Estonia | 231 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Saudi Arabia | 71 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 5 | 21.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 4 | 17.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 4 | 15.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Germany | 3 | 12.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Libya | Germany | 3 | 11.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 2 | 8.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 1 | 5.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 1 | 3.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 0 | 1.9% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Algeria | Germany | 0 | 1.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2023-07 to 2023-09. Confidence: medium. |
2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2023-09 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2023-09 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Latvia’s supply of road diesel in 2023-09, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Month: 2023-09 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2023-07 to 2023-09.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (3,969 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Finland: crude not from imports (3,832 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Lithuania: crude not from imports (3,210 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (1,685 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (975 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (231 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (1 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.