Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In April 2024, Latvia's road diesel supply was 95 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (55%), Finland (23%) and the United States (16%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (35%), Saudi Arabia (25%) and the United Kingdom (12%), and 22% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway34 kt (est. 35%)Saudi Arabia24 kt (est. 25%)United Kingdom11 kt (est. 12%)Algeria4.1 kt (est. 4%)United States1.0 kt (est. 1%)Russia0.3 kt (est. <1%)Switzerlandless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)Other crude originsless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)United States: no crude data15 kt (16%)China: no crude data4.0 kt (4%)Estonia: no refinery1.2 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.5 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: no refinery0.2 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania52 kt (55%)Finland22 kt (23%)United States15 kt (16%)China4.0 kt (4%)Estonia1.2 kt (1%)Slovakia0.3 kt (<1%)Cyprus0.2 kt (<1%)Germany0.1 kt (<1%)Latvia: road diesel supply95 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Norway34 kt (est. 35%)
- Saudi Arabia24 kt (est. 25%)
- United Kingdom11 kt (est. 12%)
- Algeria4.1 kt (est. 4%)
- United States1.0 kt (est. 1%)
- Russia0.3 kt (est. <1%)
- Switzerlandless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude originsless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- United States: no crude data15 kt (16%)
- China: no crude data4.0 kt (4%)
- Estonia: no refinery1.2 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.5 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no refinery0.2 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Apr 2024)
less than 50 tonnes
est. <1% of Latvia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reportedless than 0.1 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Germanyless than 0.1 kt (est. 100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Latvia: road diesel supply | 52,128 | 54.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Latvia: road diesel supply | 22,162 | 23.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Latvia: road diesel supply | 15,326 | 16.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| China | Latvia: road diesel supply | 3,988 | 4.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Estonia | Latvia: road diesel supply | 1,203 | 1.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Slovakia | Latvia: road diesel supply | 327 | 0.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Cyprus | Latvia: road diesel supply | 227 | 0.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 23,557 | 45.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 16,927 | 76.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 16,914 | 32.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 15,326 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 7,100 | 13.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 4,215 | 19.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 4,068 | 7.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| China: no crude data | China | 3,988 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Estonia: no refinery | Estonia | 1,203 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United States | Finland | 1,020 | 4.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 489 | 0.9% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Russia | Slovakia | 271 | 82.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Latvia split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Cyprus | 227 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Switzerland | Slovakia | 41 | 12.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Latvia split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 19 | 38.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Slovakia | 14 | 4.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Latvia split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 9 | 18.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 9 | 18.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 5 | 9.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 5 | 9.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 1 | 2.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Germany | 1 | 2.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2024-02 to 2024-04. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Germany | 1 | 1.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2024-04 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2024-04 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Latvia’s supply of road diesel in 2024-04, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Month: 2024-04 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-02 to 2024-04.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (15,326 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- China: no crude data (3,988 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Estonia: no refinery (1,203 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (490 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (227 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (5 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.