Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In March 2026, Latvia's road diesel supply was 108 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (56%), Finland (24%) and Norway (8%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (38%), Saudi Arabia (29%) and the United Kingdom (5%), and 18% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway41 kt (est. 38%)Saudi Arabia32 kt (est. 29%)United Kingdom5.7 kt (est. 5%)Algeria4.6 kt (est. 4%)Denmark2.4 kt (est. 2%)United States2.0 kt (est. 2%)Guyana1.2 kt (est. 1%)Nigeria0.1 kt (est. <1%)Norway: no crude data9.0 kt (8%)United States: no crude data8.4 kt (8%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.9 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: no refinery0.7 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania60 kt (56%)Finland25 kt (24%)Norway9.0 kt (8%)United States8.4 kt (8%)Sweden3.9 kt (4%)Estonia0.7 kt (<1%)Bulgaria0.1 kt (<1%)Latvia: road diesel supply108 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Norway41 kt (est. 38%)
- Saudi Arabia32 kt (est. 29%)
- United Kingdom5.7 kt (est. 5%)
- Algeria4.6 kt (est. 4%)
- Denmark2.4 kt (est. 2%)
- United States2.0 kt (est. 2%)
- Guyana1.2 kt (est. 1%)
- Nigeria0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Norway: no crude data9.0 kt (8%)
- United States: no crude data8.4 kt (8%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.9 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no refinery0.7 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Road diesel supplied (Mar 2026)
675 tonnes
<1% of Latvia's road diesel supply
Official
Crude behind it (estimate)
- Smaller flows: no refinery0.7 kt (100%)
Source: Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis); Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Latvia: road diesel supply | 60,175 | 55.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Latvia: road diesel supply | 25,448 | 23.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Norway | Latvia: road diesel supply | 9,020 | 8.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Latvia: road diesel supply | 8,400 | 7.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Latvia: road diesel supply | 3,872 | 3.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Estonia | Latvia: road diesel supply | 675 | 0.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 31,558 | 52.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 21,144 | 83.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Lithuania | 17,954 | 29.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway: no crude data | Norway | 9,020 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 8,400 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 5,148 | 8.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 4,573 | 7.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 2,441 | 9.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Sweden | 1,931 | 49.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Sweden | 1,192 | 30.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Finland | 1,059 | 4.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 941 | 1.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Finland | 804 | 3.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Estonia | 675 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 519 | 13.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Nigeria | Sweden | 116 | 3.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Sweden | 114 | 2.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-01 to 2026-03. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria | 76 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2026-03 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-03 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Latvia’s supply of road diesel in 2026-03, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2026-03 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2026-01 to 2026-03.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Norway: no crude data (9,020 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- United States: no crude data (8,400 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (941 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (675 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (76 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.