Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In October 2023, Latvia's road diesel supply was 91 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (76%) and Finland (21%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (39%), the United States (23%) and Saudi Arabia (23%), and 8% cannot be traced.
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- Finland
- United States
- Estonia
- Saudi Arabia
- Norway35 kt (est. 39%)
- United States21 kt (est. 23%)
- Saudi Arabia21 kt (est. 23%)
- United Kingdom3.6 kt (est. 4%)
- Algeria2.3 kt (est. 3%)
- Brazil0.6 kt (est. <1%)
- Finland: crude not from imports2.6 kt (3%)
- United States: no crude data2.4 kt (3%)
- Lithuania: crude not from imports1.8 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: no refinery0.2 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no crude dataless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Road diesel supplied (Oct 2023)
19.1 thousand tonnes
21% of Latvia's road diesel supply
Official
Crude behind it (estimate)
- Norway13 kt (est. 67%)
- Finland: crude not from imports2.6 kt (14%)
- United States2.4 kt (est. 12%)
and 2 more in the table above
Source: Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis); Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Latvia: road diesel supply | 69,290 | 76.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Latvia: road diesel supply | 19,136 | 21.0% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Latvia: road diesel supply | 2,358 | 2.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Estonia | Latvia: road diesel supply | 177 | 0.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Lithuania | 22,668 | 32.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 20,814 | 30.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 18,777 | 27.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 12,771 | 66.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 2,847 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Finland: crude not from imports | Finland | 2,632 | 13.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 2,358 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Finland | 2,355 | 12.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 2,339 | 3.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Lithuania: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 1,845 | 2.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 791 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Brazil | Finland | 587 | 3.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2023-08 to 2023-10. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Estonia | 177 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Saudi Arabia | 49 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2023-10 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Latvia’s supply of road diesel in 2023-10, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Month: 2023-10 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2023-08 to 2023-10.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Finland: crude not from imports (2,632 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- United States: no crude data (2,358 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Lithuania: crude not from imports (1,845 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (177 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (49 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.