Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In May 2026, Latvia's road diesel supply was 84 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (72%), Sweden (12%) and Finland (9%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (37%), Saudi Arabia (32%) and the United States (11%), and 7% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway31 kt (est. 37%)Saudi Arabia27 kt (est. 32%)United States9.5 kt (est. 11%)United Kingdom6.6 kt (est. 8%)Algeria2.2 kt (est. 3%)Denmark1.0 kt (est. 1%)Guyana0.8 kt (est. 1%)Other crude origins0.7 kt (est. <1%)United States: no crude data3.5 kt (4%)Estonia: no refinery1.0 kt (1%)Lithuania: crude not from imports1.0 kt (1%)Smaller flows: no refinery0.3 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania61 kt (72%)Sweden10 kt (12%)Finland8.0 kt (9%)United States3.5 kt (4%)Estonia1.0 kt (1%)Cyprus0.3 kt (<1%)Bulgaria0.1 kt (<1%)Poland0.1 kt (<1%)Czechialess than 0.1 kt (<1%)Greeceless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Latvia: road diesel supply84 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Norway31 kt (est. 37%)
- Saudi Arabia27 kt (est. 32%)
- United States9.5 kt (est. 11%)
- United Kingdom6.6 kt (est. 8%)
- Algeria2.2 kt (est. 3%)
- Denmark1.0 kt (est. 1%)
- Guyana0.8 kt (est. 1%)
- Other crude origins0.7 kt (est. <1%)
- United States: no crude data3.5 kt (4%)
- Estonia: no refinery1.0 kt (1%)
- Lithuania: crude not from imports1.0 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: no refinery0.3 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Road diesel supplied (May 2026)
less than 50 tonnes
<1% of Latvia's road diesel supply
Official
Crude behind it (estimate)
- Other crude originsless than 0.1 kt (est. 64%)
- Norwayless than 0.1 kt (est. 12%)
- United Statesless than 0.1 kt (est. 10%)
and 3 more in the table above
Source: Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis); Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Latvia: road diesel supply | 60,768 | 72.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Latvia: road diesel supply | 10,418 | 12.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Latvia: road diesel supply | 7,969 | 9.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Latvia: road diesel supply | 3,500 | 4.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Estonia | Latvia: road diesel supply | 1,014 | 1.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Cyprus | Latvia: road diesel supply | 295 | 0.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 26,510 | 43.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 19,436 | 32.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 6,498 | 10.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 5,975 | 75.0% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Sweden | 5,354 | 51.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 5,091 | 8.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 3,500 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Sweden | 2,344 | 22.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 2,227 | 3.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 1,468 | 14.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 1,028 | 12.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Estonia: no refinery | Estonia | 1,014 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Lithuania: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 1,005 | 1.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 718 | 6.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Finland | 655 | 8.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Guyana | Sweden | 534 | 5.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Finland | 311 | 3.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Cyprus | 295 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria | 51 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Saudi Arabia | Poland | 19 | 38.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Poland | 19 | 37.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 13 | 64.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Latvia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Czechia | 9 | 35.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Latvia split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Czechia | 8 | 33.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Latvia split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Poland | 6 | 12.9% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Czechia | 4 | 17.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Greece | 2 | 12.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Latvia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Poland | 2 | 4.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Poland | 2 | 4.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Greece | 2 | 9.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Latvia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Greece | 2 | 9.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Latvia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Czechia | 2 | 7.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Latvia split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Czechia | 1 | 5.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Latvia split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Poland | 1 | 2.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Greece | 0 | 2.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Latvia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Czechia | 0 | 1.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Czechia's road diesel to Latvia split by Czechia's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Greece | 0 | 1.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Latvia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2026-03 to 2026-05. Confidence: medium. |
4 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2026-05 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-05 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Latvia’s supply of road diesel in 2026-05, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2026-05 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2026-03 to 2026-05.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (3,500 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Estonia: no refinery (1,014 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Lithuania: crude not from imports (1,005 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (295 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (51 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (11 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.