Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In February 2025, Latvia's road diesel supply was 61 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (68%), Denmark (16%) and the United States (9%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Saudi Arabia (43%), Norway (16%) and Algeria (10%), and 20% cannot be traced.
Country
Saudi Arabia26 kt (est. 43%)Norway9.7 kt (est. 16%)Algeria6.3 kt (est. 10%)United States3.5 kt (est. 6%)United Kingdom1.9 kt (est. 3%)Türkiye0.5 kt (est. <1%)Kazakhstan0.2 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.5 kt (est. <1%)United States: no crude data5.4 kt (9%)Denmark: crude not from imports4.0 kt (7%)India: no crude data1.3 kt (2%)Estonia: no refinery0.9 kt (1%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.3 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: no refinery0.2 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: no crude data0.2 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania42 kt (68%)Denmark9.9 kt (16%)United States5.4 kt (9%)Netherlands1.8 kt (3%)India1.3 kt (2%)Estonia0.9 kt (1%)Cyprus0.2 kt (<1%)Belarus0.1 kt (<1%)Slovakia0.1 kt (<1%)Russialess than 0.1 kt (<1%)Latvia: road diesel supply61 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- Denmark
- United States
- Netherlands
- India
- Estonia
- Cyprus
- Belarus
- Other (2)
- Saudi Arabia26 kt (est. 43%)
- Norway9.7 kt (est. 16%)
- Algeria6.3 kt (est. 10%)
- United States3.5 kt (est. 6%)
- United Kingdom1.9 kt (est. 3%)
- Türkiye0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- Kazakhstan0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.5 kt (est. <1%)
- United States: no crude data5.4 kt (9%)
- Denmark: crude not from imports4.0 kt (7%)
- India: no crude data1.3 kt (2%)
- Estonia: no refinery0.9 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.3 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no refinery0.2 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no crude data0.2 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Feb 2025)
9.7 thousand tonnes
est. 16% of Latvia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported9.7 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Refined in
- Lithuania7.0 kt (est. 72%)
- Denmark2.4 kt (est. 24%)
- Netherlands0.3 kt (est. 3%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Latvia: road diesel supply | 41,529 | 67.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Denmark | Latvia: road diesel supply | 9,898 | 16.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| United States | Latvia: road diesel supply | 5,365 | 8.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Latvia: road diesel supply | 1,778 | 2.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| India | Latvia: road diesel supply | 1,348 | 2.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Estonia | Latvia: road diesel supply | 882 | 1.4% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Cyprus | Latvia: road diesel supply | 200 | 0.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Belarus | Latvia: road diesel supply | 133 | 0.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Slovakia | Latvia: road diesel supply | 103 | 0.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 26,192 | 63.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 7,013 | 16.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 6,308 | 15.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 5,365 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Denmark: crude not from imports | Denmark | 4,029 | 40.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Denmark | 3,001 | 30.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Latvia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Denmark | 2,373 | 24.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Latvia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 1,695 | 4.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| India: no crude data | India | 1,348 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Estonia: no refinery | Estonia | 882 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Türkiye | Denmark | 489 | 4.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Denmark's road diesel to Latvia split by Denmark's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Netherlands | 466 | 26.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Latvia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 453 | 25.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Latvia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 321 | 0.8% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Netherlands | 307 | 17.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Latvia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Netherlands | 207 | 11.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Latvia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Cyprus | 200 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 199 | 11.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Latvia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Belarus | 133 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 109 | 6.1% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Slovakia | 94 | 91.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Latvia split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Russia | 44 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Saudi Arabia | Netherlands | 35 | 2.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Latvia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Slovakia | 6 | 5.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Slovakia's road diesel to Latvia split by Slovakia's crude-import mix over 2024-12 to 2025-02. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Slovakia | 3 | 3.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Netherlands | 2 | 0.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2025-02 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-02 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Latvia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-02, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Month: 2025-02 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2024-12 to 2025-02.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (5,365 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Denmark: crude not from imports (4,029 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- India: no crude data (1,348 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Estonia: no refinery (882 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (327 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (200 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (177 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (115 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.