Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In December 2025, Latvia's road diesel supply was 106 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (62%), Finland (22%) and the United States (6%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (33%), Saudi Arabia (32%) and the United Kingdom (14%), and 13% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway35 kt (est. 33%)Saudi Arabia34 kt (est. 32%)United Kingdom15 kt (est. 14%)Algeria2.6 kt (est. 2%)United States1.8 kt (est. 2%)Denmark1.6 kt (est. 2%)Senegal1.4 kt (est. 1%)Other crude origins1.7 kt (est. 2%)United States: no crude data6.2 kt (6%)Kuwait: no crude data3.5 kt (3%)Cyprus: no refinery2.4 kt (2%)Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.9 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.4 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: no crude data0.1 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: no refinery0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania66 kt (62%)Finland23 kt (22%)United States6.2 kt (6%)Netherlands3.9 kt (4%)Kuwait3.5 kt (3%)Cyprus2.4 kt (2%)Bulgaria0.2 kt (<1%)Oman0.1 kt (<1%)Estonia0.1 kt (<1%)Other suppliers0.1 kt (<1%)Latvia: road diesel supply106 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- Finland
- United States
- Netherlands
- Kuwait
- Cyprus
- Bulgaria
- Oman
- Other (3)
- Norway35 kt (est. 33%)
- Saudi Arabia34 kt (est. 32%)
- United Kingdom15 kt (est. 14%)
- Algeria2.6 kt (est. 2%)
- United States1.8 kt (est. 2%)
- Denmark1.6 kt (est. 2%)
- Senegal1.4 kt (est. 1%)
- Other crude origins1.7 kt (est. 2%)
- United States: no crude data6.2 kt (6%)
- Kuwait: no crude data3.5 kt (3%)
- Cyprus: no refinery2.4 kt (2%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports0.9 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.4 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no crude data0.1 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: no refinery0.1 kt (<1%)
Where the fuel was refined
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Dec 2025)
33.6 thousand tonnes
est. 32% of Latvia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported34 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Refined in
- Lithuania34 kt (est. 100%)
- Other suppliersless than 0.1 kt (est. <1%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Latvia: road diesel supply | 66,422 | 62.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Finland | Latvia: road diesel supply | 23,314 | 21.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| United States | Latvia: road diesel supply | 6,231 | 5.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Netherlands | Latvia: road diesel supply | 3,905 | 3.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Kuwait | Latvia: road diesel supply | 3,477 | 3.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Cyprus | Latvia: road diesel supply | 2,444 | 2.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Bulgaria | Latvia: road diesel supply | 153 | 0.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Oman | Latvia: road diesel supply | 148 | 0.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| Estonia | Latvia: road diesel supply | 126 | 0.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by country of origin, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 33,613 | 50.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 17,851 | 26.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 16,714 | 71.7% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 11,435 | 17.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 6,231 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Kuwait: no crude data | Kuwait | 3,477 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United Kingdom | Finland | 2,810 | 12.1% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 2,627 | 4.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Cyprus: no refinery | Cyprus | 2,444 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Other crude origins | Netherlands | 1,661 | 42.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Latvia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 1,603 | 6.9% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Senegal | Finland | 1,314 | 5.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Netherlands | 958 | 24.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Latvia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 896 | 1.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United States | Finland | 873 | 3.7% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Norway | Netherlands | 698 | 17.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Latvia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Netherlands | 314 | 8.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Latvia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Netherlands | 227 | 5.8% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria | 153 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: no crude data | Oman | 148 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Estonia | 126 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Other crude origins | Other suppliers | 67 | 171.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Other suppliers's road diesel to Latvia split by Other suppliers's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Senegal | Netherlands | 46 | 1.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Netherlands's road diesel to Latvia split by Netherlands's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Other suppliers | 9 | 20.3% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Saudi Arabia | Other suppliers | 2 | 6.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Other suppliers's road diesel to Latvia split by Other suppliers's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Other suppliers | 1 | 2.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Other suppliers's road diesel to Latvia split by Other suppliers's crude-import mix over 2025-10 to 2025-12. Confidence: medium. |
2 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2025-12 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceLowMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · low
Provenance
Inferred · lowLow- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-12 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · low
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the countries whose refineries made it. Right: Latvia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-12, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-12 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-10 to 2025-12.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (6,231 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Kuwait: no crude data (3,477 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Cyprus: no refinery (2,444 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (906 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (380 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: no crude data (148 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (126 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only; fuel re-exported through a supplier is not followed further.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.