Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In September 2025, Latvia's road diesel supply was 116 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (61%), Finland (25%) and the United States (8%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (35%), Saudi Arabia (22%) and the United Kingdom (16%), and 14% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway40 kt (est. 35%)Saudi Arabia26 kt (est. 22%)United Kingdom18 kt (est. 16%)Algeria9.9 kt (est. 9%)United States3.6 kt (est. 3%)Guyana1.3 kt (est. 1%)Denmark0.8 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.1 kt (est. <1%)United States: no crude data9.0 kt (8%)India: no crude data3.3 kt (3%)Cyprus: no refinery3.3 kt (3%)Smaller flows: no refinery0.4 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania71 kt (61%)Finland29 kt (25%)United States9.0 kt (8%)India3.3 kt (3%)Cyprus3.3 kt (3%)Estonia0.4 kt (<1%)Sweden0.1 kt (<1%)Greece0.1 kt (<1%)Bulgaria0.1 kt (<1%)Belgiumless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Latvia: road diesel supply116 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Norway40 kt (est. 35%)
- Saudi Arabia26 kt (est. 22%)
- United Kingdom18 kt (est. 16%)
- Algeria9.9 kt (est. 9%)
- United States3.6 kt (est. 3%)
- Guyana1.3 kt (est. 1%)
- Denmark0.8 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- United States: no crude data9.0 kt (8%)
- India: no crude data3.3 kt (3%)
- Cyprus: no refinery3.3 kt (3%)
- Smaller flows: no refinery0.4 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported0.1 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Sep 2025)
3.3 thousand tonnes
3% of Latvia's road diesel supply
Unknown
Last shipped from
- India3.3 kt (100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Latvia: road diesel supply | 70,801 | 60.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Latvia: road diesel supply | 29,126 | 25.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Latvia: road diesel supply | 8,994 | 7.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| India | Latvia: road diesel supply | 3,321 | 2.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Cyprus | Latvia: road diesel supply | 3,314 | 2.9% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Estonia | Latvia: road diesel supply | 350 | 0.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Latvia: road diesel supply | 133 | 0.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 25,915 | 36.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Finland | 23,483 | 80.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 18,090 | 25.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 16,896 | 23.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 9,900 | 14.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 8,994 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| United States | Finland | 3,549 | 12.2% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| India: no crude data | India | 3,321 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Cyprus: no refinery | Cyprus | 3,314 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Guyana | Finland | 1,333 | 4.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Denmark | Finland | 761 | 2.6% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Estonia | 350 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| Norway | Sweden | 81 | 61.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Bulgaria | 50 | 97.6% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Other crude origins | Greece | 42 | 81.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Latvia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Sweden | 21 | 16.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 13 | 9.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Sweden | 13 | 9.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Belgium | 11 | 47.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Latvia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Belgium | 6 | 23.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Latvia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Greece | 5 | 8.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Latvia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 4 | 3.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Greece | 4 | 7.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Greece's road diesel to Latvia split by Greece's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Belgium | 3 | 12.6% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Latvia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Belgium | 2 | 7.7% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Greece | 1 | 2.4% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Bulgaria | 1 | 2.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| United Kingdom | Belgium | 1 | 4.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Latvia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Belgium | 1 | 4.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Belgium's road diesel to Latvia split by Belgium's crude-import mix over 2025-07 to 2025-09. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Belgium | 0 | 0.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Greece | 0 | 0.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
3 flows with a share under 0.1% are not listed here. They are still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
Source Period 2025-09 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-09 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Latvia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-09, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-09 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-07 to 2025-09.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (8,994 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- India: no crude data (3,321 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Cyprus: no refinery (3,314 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (350 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (53 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (1 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.