Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In July 2025, Latvia's road diesel supply was 66 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (82%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (35%), Saudi Arabia (24%) and the United Kingdom (13%), and 15% cannot be traced.
Country
Norway23 kt (est. 35%)Saudi Arabia16 kt (est. 24%)United Kingdom8.4 kt (est. 13%)Algeria8.1 kt (est. 12%)United States0.4 kt (est. <1%)Guyana0.2 kt (est. <1%)Denmark0.1 kt (est. <1%)Other crude origins0.2 kt (est. <1%)Cyprus: no refinery3.2 kt (5%)United States: no crude data3.1 kt (5%)India: no crude data2.1 kt (3%)Lithuania: crude not from imports0.8 kt (1%)Smaller flows: no refinery0.5 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedless than 0.1 kt (<1%)Lithuania55 kt (82%)Cyprus3.2 kt (5%)United States3.1 kt (5%)India2.1 kt (3%)Finland1.2 kt (2%)Sweden1.1 kt (2%)Estonia0.5 kt (<1%)Poland0.4 kt (<1%)Germany0.2 kt (<1%)Other suppliers0.1 kt (<1%)Latvia: road diesel supply66 kt (100%)
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Norway23 kt (est. 35%)
- Saudi Arabia16 kt (est. 24%)
- United Kingdom8.4 kt (est. 13%)
- Algeria8.1 kt (est. 12%)
- United States0.4 kt (est. <1%)
- Guyana0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Denmark0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.2 kt (est. <1%)
- Cyprus: no refinery3.2 kt (5%)
- United States: no crude data3.1 kt (5%)
- India: no crude data2.1 kt (3%)
- Lithuania: crude not from imports0.8 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: no refinery0.5 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Crude behind this road diesel, an estimate (Jul 2025)
448 tonnes
est. <1% of Latvia's road diesel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported0.4 kt estimated
Inferred · mediumEstimated
Last shipped from
- Finland0.2 kt (est. 53%)
- Sweden0.2 kt (est. 39%)
- Germanyless than 0.1 kt (est. 5%)
and 1 more in the table above
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Latvia: road diesel supply | 54,506 | 82.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Cyprus | Latvia: road diesel supply | 3,218 | 4.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Latvia: road diesel supply | 3,069 | 4.6% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| India | Latvia: road diesel supply | 2,113 | 3.2% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Finland | Latvia: road diesel supply | 1,171 | 1.8% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Sweden | Latvia: road diesel supply | 1,119 | 1.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Estonia | Latvia: road diesel supply | 497 | 0.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Poland | Latvia: road diesel supply | 364 | 0.5% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Germany | Latvia: road diesel supply | 197 | 0.3% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Other suppliers | Latvia: road diesel supply | 102 | 0.2% | Summed by usSum of the smaller suppliers' published imports. |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | Lithuania | 21,391 | 39.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 15,880 | 29.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 8,260 | 15.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Algeria | Lithuania | 8,130 | 14.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's road diesel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Cyprus: no refinery | Cyprus | 3,218 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United States: no crude data | United States | 3,069 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| India: no crude data | India | 2,113 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Norway | Finland | 848 | 72.4% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Lithuania: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 845 | 1.6% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Norway | Sweden | 596 | 53.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Estonia | 497 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
| United States | Finland | 237 | 20.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| United States | Sweden | 177 | 15.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Poland | 142 | 39.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Sweden | 138 | 12.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Sweden | 138 | 12.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Poland | 118 | 32.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Germany | 97 | 49.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Finland | 85 | 7.3% | EstimatedPartly estimated from published euro value. Estimate: Finland's road diesel to Latvia split by Finland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Finland did not publish its crude imports for part of that window; those months use crude imports estimated from the euro values it did publish (customs basis). |
| Other crude origins | Other suppliers | 72 | 139.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Other suppliers's road diesel to Latvia split by Other suppliers's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Sweden | 54 | 4.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Sweden's road diesel to Latvia split by Sweden's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Germany | 32 | 16.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Poland | 25 | 6.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Germany | 23 | 11.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Germany | 22 | 11.0% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Other crude origins | Poland | 22 | 5.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Norway | Other suppliers | 19 | 38.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Other suppliers's road diesel to Latvia split by Other suppliers's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Sweden | 16 | 1.4% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Guyana | Poland | 14 | 3.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude not from imports | Poland | 13 | 3.7% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Germany | 13 | 6.5% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Algeria | Poland | 12 | 3.3% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Other suppliers | 11 | 21.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Other suppliers's road diesel to Latvia split by Other suppliers's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Poland | 10 | 2.8% | EstimatedEstimate: Poland's road diesel to Latvia split by Poland's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: crude origin not reported | Poland | 7 | 1.9% | UnknownThe supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from. |
| Algeria | Germany | 5 | 2.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Germany | 4 | 2.2% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
| Denmark | Germany | 1 | 0.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Germany's road diesel to Latvia split by Germany's crude-import mix over 2025-05 to 2025-07. Confidence: medium. |
Source & method
Source Period 2025-07 (month)Updated 2026-09-26 13:30 UTCConfidenceMediumMethodologyDownload CSV
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2025-07 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Latvia’s supply of road diesel in 2025-07, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Dashed crude links rest partly on crude imports estimated from published euro values: a supplier did not publish its crude imports for some months of the window (docs/METHODOLOGY.md section 6.1). Customs basis, INFERRED. Method
Month: 2025-07 (requested). Crude mixes are pooled over 2025-05 to 2025-07.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- Cyprus: no refinery (3,218 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- United States: no crude data (3,069 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- India: no crude data (2,113 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Lithuania: crude not from imports (845 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (497 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Smaller flows: crude not from imports (29 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reported (20 t): The supplying country's statistics did not say where part of its crude came from.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.