Flows
How oil reaches each country
Where the EU’s crude oil and fuel come from, as each member state reports its imports; every band’s width is proportional to tonnes.
In June 2026, Latvia's jet fuel supply was 10 kt, all of it imported, mainly from Lithuania (49%), the United States (42%) and Romania (9%); tracing one step back, the crude behind it is estimated to come mainly from Norway (19%), Saudi Arabia (16%) and the United States (9%), and 46% cannot be traced.
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Crude origin (estimate)
- Colour = where it went:
- Lithuania
- United States
- Romania
- Estonia
- Norway1.9 kt (est. 19%)
- Saudi Arabia1.7 kt (est. 16%)
- United States0.9 kt (est. 9%)
- United Kingdom0.4 kt (est. 4%)
- Kazakhstan0.4 kt (est. 3%)
- Azerbaijan0.1 kt (est. 1%)
- Guyana0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- Other crude origins0.1 kt (est. <1%)
- United States: no crude data4.3 kt (42%)
- Romania: crude not from imports0.3 kt (3%)
- Lithuania: crude not from imports0.1 kt (1%)
- Smaller flows: no refineryless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
Crude behind this jet fuel, an estimate (Jun 2026)
908 tonnes
est. 9% of Latvia's jet fuel supply
less than 0.1 kt reported0.9 kt estimated
Inferred · medium
Last shipped from
- Lithuania0.9 kt (est. 100%)
Source: Fuel Origin fuel-chain look-through (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md section 8), built on Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm and nrg_cb_oilm
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
The numbers as a table
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | Latvia: jet fuel supply | 5,015 | 49.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| United States | Latvia: jet fuel supply | 4,302 | 42.1% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| Romania | Latvia: jet fuel supply | 888 | 8.7% | ReportedEurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports by partner country, energy basis) |
| From | To | Tonnes | Share | How we know |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States: no crude data | United States | 4,302 | 100.0% | UnknownWe hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on. |
| Norway | Lithuania | 1,928 | 38.4% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's jet fuel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Saudi Arabia | Lithuania | 1,679 | 33.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's jet fuel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United States | Lithuania | 908 | 18.1% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's jet fuel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| United Kingdom | Lithuania | 394 | 7.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Lithuania's jet fuel to Latvia split by Lithuania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Kazakhstan | Romania | 353 | 39.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's jet fuel to Latvia split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Romania: crude not from imports | Romania | 268 | 30.2% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Azerbaijan | Romania | 138 | 15.5% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's jet fuel to Latvia split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Lithuania: crude not from imports | Lithuania | 105 | 2.1% | UnknownThe refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix. |
| Other crude origins | Romania | 79 | 8.9% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's jet fuel to Latvia split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Guyana | Romania | 51 | 5.7% | EstimatedEstimate: Romania's jet fuel to Latvia split by Romania's crude-import mix over 2026-04 to 2026-06. Confidence: medium. |
| Smaller flows: no refinery | Estonia | 3 | 100.0% | UnknownThe supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only. |
One flow with a share under 0.1% is not listed here. It is still counted in every total and drawn in the diagram, and the CSV under Source & method lists every flow.
Source & method
EurostatInferred · medium
Provenance
Inferred · mediumMedium- Publisher
- Eurostat
- Dataset id
- Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)nrg_ti_oilmeurostat_nrg_ti_oilm_products
- Period
- 2026-06 (month)
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-23 12:11 UTC
- Type
- Inferred · medium
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Commission Decision 2011/833/EU - reuse authorised provided the source is acknowledged
- Supplier -> country links are published figures (OFFICIAL; the unattributed remainder and any 'Other suppliers' sum are CALCULATED).
- Crude -> supplier links are an estimate (INFERRED) from each supplier's crude-import mix; the published crude imports behind each one are in links[].evidence.
- Untraceable volumes are explicit UNKNOWN nodes with their cause. They are never spread over the traced origins.
Left: the crude oil behind the fuel (an estimate). Middle: the country’s own refineries and the countries the fuel was last shipped from, which may be a trading hub rather than where it was refined; the estimate treats each as the refiner. Right: Latvia’s supply of jet fuel in 2026-06, in tonnes of fuel. Only the middle-to-right flows are reported figures.
Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.
Month: 2026-06 (latest month that can be drawn, the month its country page shows). Crude mixes are pooled over 2026-04 to 2026-06.
Fuel that cannot be traced, and the reason
- United States: no crude data (4,302 t): We hold no crude import statistics for the supplying country, and we do not assume what its refineries run on.
- Romania: crude not from imports (268 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Lithuania: crude not from imports (105 t): The refineries used more crude than the country imported (its own production or stocks). That part is not traced rather than being filled with the import mix.
- Smaller flows: no refinery (3 t): The supplying country has no crude oil refinery (a cited confirmed zero), so the fuel was made elsewhere and passed through. We look back one step only.
- Only the supplier -> country links are reported figures. The crude -> supplier links are an estimate: each supplier's fuel is split by that supplier's own crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- Widths are tonnes of this fuel, not tonnes of crude oil: a refinery makes several products from each tonne of crude.