Teagmhais / Suaitheadh loingseoireachta
Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026)
- Dátaí
- 28/02/2026 → níl dáta deiridh ar taifead
- Beachtas an dáta
- lá
- Stádas
- Ar siúl
- Raon feidhme
- Caolas Hormuz / Murascaill na Peirse
An méid a dúirt na foinsí (i mBéarla)
Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.
IEA, EIA, an Coimisiún Eorpach, an Chomhairle Eorpach agus reachtais náisiúnta (foinse luaite i ngach ró)Fíoraithe
Bunús na sonraí
FíoraitheArd- Foilsitheoir
- IEA, EIA, an Coimisiún Eorpach, an Chomhairle Eorpach agus reachtais náisiúnta (foinse luaite i ngach ró)
- Aitheantas an tacair sonraí
- Fuel Origin: amlíne teagmhas (curtha le chéile againn) (data/reference/events.csv)events.csvreference_events_v1
- Tréimhse
- níor taifeadadh
- Aisghafa
- 03/10/2026, 16:51 UTC
- Cineál
- Fíoraithe
- Claochlú
- níor cuireadh aon cheann i bhfeidhm: stóráilte díreach mar a foilsíodh é
- Ceadúnas
- In aghaidh an ró: rianaítear gach ró go doiciméad na gníomhaireachta nó an reachtais a ainmnítear in source_urls.
- Déanann taifead teagmhais cur síos ar cad a tharla, ní ar cad ba thoradh air (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §5).
- Pointí fuinneoige a bhfuil luach breathnaithe acu: 6,933 as 10,179; is poill taifeadta an chuid eile, ní nialais.
- Cainéil gan foinse inúsáidte: NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE, NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE, NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK, NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES, NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES.
Doiciméid foinse (7)
- https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/mar26.pdf
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/aug26.pdf
- https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-oil-supplies-have-readjusted-to-help-fill-the-huge-gap-left-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-shock
- https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67865
- https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press590.php
Nuair a roghnaítear breosla, coinnítear sraitheanna an bhreosla sin agus na cainéil atá i gcoitinne ag gach breosla: tagarmharc na hamhola, an ráta malairte, allmhairí amhola agus nochtadh do Hormuz. Ní fhágtar ar lár ach sraitheanna an bhreosla eile.
Fuinneog an teagmhais
Luach gach sraithe idir -30 agus 90 lá timpeall ar dháta an teagmhais, an fad atá sé sin ó leibhéal na sraithe céanna ar dháta an teagmhais, agus méid na gluaiseachta sin i gcomparáid le gnáthathraitheacht na sraithe féin.
An Pholainn, Peitreal (Euro-super 95). Sraitheanna is féidir a tharraingt: 15; sraitheanna nach féidir a fheiceáil ar chor ar bith, a thaispeántar thíos mar phainéil fholmha lipéadaithe: 4.
Léamha foilsithe: 175; fritháirimh nach bhfuil aon rud foilsithe dóibh laistigh de thréimhse amháin: 20; fritháirimh ar shraitheanna nach féidir linn a fheiceáil ar chor ar bith: 52. Tá gach ceann acu ar an leathanach seo.
Europe Brent spot FOB
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 71.00 | -0.320 | -0.45% | -0.23 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 69.96 | -1.360 | -1.91% | -0.99 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 72.75 | +1.430 | +2.01% | +1.04 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 70.69 | -0.630 | -0.88% | -0.46 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 71.32 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 71.32 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 71.32 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 83.28 | +11.960 | +16.77% | +8.68 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 95.74 | +24.420 | +34.24% | +17.72 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 103.2 | +31.910 | +44.74% | +23.16 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 121.9 | +50.560 | +70.89% | +36.70 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 124.2 | +52.840 | +74.09% | +38.35 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 92.88 | +21.560 | +30.23% | +15.65 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 1.93%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó lá go lá; líon na n-athruithe: 756) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
reported crude oil imports, all origins
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh. Foilsíodh luach amháin ar a laghad a úsáideadh lasmuigh den fhuinneog (−30 – +90); síneadh an ais chun a thaispeáint cá bhfuil sé i ndáiríre.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 2,076,234 | +214,117 | +11.50% | +0.76 |
| −14 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1,862,117 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −7 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1,862,117 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −3 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1,862,117 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1,862,117 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1,862,117 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 1,662,721 | -199,396 | -10.71% | -0.70 |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 1,662,721 | -199,396 | -10.71% | -0.70 |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 1,662,721 | -199,396 | -10.71% | -0.70 |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 1,662,721 | -199,396 | -10.71% | -0.70 |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 1,662,721 | -199,396 | -10.71% | -0.70 |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 1,893,151 | +31,034 | +1.67% | +0.11 |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 1,487,466 | -374,651 | -20.12% | -1.32 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 15.21%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó mhí go mí; líon na n-athruithe: 35) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh. Foilsíodh luach amháin ar a laghad a úsáideadh lasmuigh den fhuinneog (−30 – +90); síneadh an ais chun a thaispeáint cá bhfuil sé i ndáiríre.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.6711 | -0.017 | -2.44% | -0.01 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.6805 | -0.007 | -1.07% | -0.01 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.6843 | -0.004 | -0.52% | -0.00 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6879 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6879 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6879 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6879 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.7210 | +0.033 | +4.81% | +0.02 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.7210 | +0.033 | +4.81% | +0.02 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.7725 | +0.085 | +12.30% | +0.06 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.9604 | +0.273 | +39.62% | +0.21 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 1.026 | +0.339 | +49.23% | +0.25 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 1.114 | +0.426 | +61.89% | +0.32 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 193.25%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó sheachtain go seachtain; líon na n-athruithe: 155) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
ráta tagartha malairte euro an BCE
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 1.197 | +0.016 | +1.38% | +3.12 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 1.186 | +0.006 | +0.48% | +1.09 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 1.177 | -0.004 | -0.32% | -0.73 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 1.178 | -0.002 | -0.18% | -0.40 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1.181 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1.181 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1.181 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 1.161 | -0.020 | -1.69% | -3.81 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 1.156 | -0.024 | -2.07% | -4.67 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 1.148 | -0.033 | -2.79% | -6.29 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 1.148 | -0.032 | -2.72% | -6.14 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 1.171 | -0.010 | -0.84% | -1.89 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 1.164 | -0.016 | -1.36% | -3.08 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 0.44%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó lá go lá; líon na n-athruithe: 765) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
nochtadh díreach amhola do Hormuz D1
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh. Foilsíodh luach amháin ar a laghad a úsáideadh lasmuigh den fhuinneog (−30 – +90); síneadh an ais chun a thaispeáint cá bhfuil sé i ndáiríre. Is é an banda scáthaithe an raon inghlactha. Ní tharraingítear aon lárphointe: ní fhoilsítear aon mheastachán pointe.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 0–35.34 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −14 | 2026-02-01 | 0–45.32 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −7 | 2026-02-01 | 0–45.32 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −3 | 2026-02-01 | 0–45.32 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −1 | 2026-02-01 | 0–45.32 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| T0 | 2026-02-01 | 0–45.32 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 0–34.94 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 0–34.94 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 0–34.94 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 0–34.94 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 0–34.94 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 0–39.74 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 0–33.35 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
Ní fhoilsítear aon ghnáthluaineacht don tsraith seo: ní chuirtear aon athrú in iúl in aonaid luaineachta. Ionchur atá ar iarraidh é sin, ní nialas.
nochtadh díreach táirgí peitriliam do Hormuz D2
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh. Foilsíodh luach amháin ar a laghad a úsáideadh lasmuigh den fhuinneog (−30 – +90); síneadh an ais chun a thaispeáint cá bhfuil sé i ndáiríre. Is é an banda scáthaithe an raon inghlactha. Ní tharraingítear aon lárphointe: ní fhoilsítear aon mheastachán pointe.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 0–3.639 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −14 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0 | 0.000 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −7 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0 | 0.000 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −3 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0 | 0.000 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −1 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0 | 0.000 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| T0 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0 | 0.000 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 5.845–7.257 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 5.845–7.257 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 5.845–7.257 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 5.845–7.257 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 5.845–7.257 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 0–0.0016 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 0 | 0.000 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
Ní fhoilsítear aon ghnáthluaineacht don tsraith seo: ní chuirtear aon athrú in iúl in aonaid luaineachta. Ionchur atá ar iarraidh é sin, ní nialas.
nochtadh stoc D7: laethanta cumhdaigh na gcúlstoc ola mar a foilsíodh iad, tugtha ar aghaidh gan athrú
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh. Foilsíodh luach amháin ar a laghad a úsáideadh lasmuigh den fhuinneog (−30 – +90); síneadh an ais chun a thaispeáint cá bhfuil sé i ndáiríre.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 91.55 | +0.003 | +0.00% | +0.00 |
| −14 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 91.55 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −7 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 91.55 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −3 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 91.55 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 91.55 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 91.55 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 91.48 | -0.072 | -0.08% | -0.03 |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 91.48 | -0.072 | -0.08% | -0.03 |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 91.48 | -0.072 | -0.08% | -0.03 |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 91.48 | -0.072 | -0.08% | -0.03 |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 91.48 | -0.072 | -0.08% | -0.03 |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 91.46 | -0.090 | -0.10% | -0.03 |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 91.49 | -0.063 | -0.07% | -0.02 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 3.04%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó mhí go mí; líon na n-athruithe: 35) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh. Foilsíodh luach amháin ar a laghad a úsáideadh lasmuigh den fhuinneog (−30 – +90); síneadh an ais chun a thaispeáint cá bhfuil sé i ndáiríre.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.3714 | -0.009 | -2.40% | -0.66 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.3742 | -0.006 | -1.68% | -0.46 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.3817 | +0.001 | +0.29% | +0.08 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.4615 | +0.081 | +21.26% | +5.80 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.4615 | +0.081 | +21.26% | +5.80 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.5233 | +0.143 | +37.50% | +10.24 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.6763 | +0.296 | +77.69% | +21.21 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.6445 | +0.264 | +69.35% | +18.93 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.5248 | +0.144 | +37.88% | +10.34 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 3.66%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó sheachtain go seachtain; líon na n-athruithe: 155) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
stoic ola náisiúnta iomlána (Eurostat, sealbhóirí tráchtála), leis na laethanta cumhdaigh foilsithe in éineacht leo
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh. Foilsíodh luach amháin ar a laghad a úsáideadh lasmuigh den fhuinneog (−30 – +90); síneadh an ais chun a thaispeáint cá bhfuil sé i ndáiríre.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 11,235,507 | -77,382 | -0.68% | -0.31 |
| −14 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 11,312,889 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −7 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 11,312,889 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −3 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 11,312,889 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 11,312,889 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-01an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 11,312,889 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 11,409,303 | +96,414 | +0.85% | +0.38 |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 11,409,303 | +96,414 | +0.85% | +0.38 |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 11,409,303 | +96,414 | +0.85% | +0.38 |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 11,409,303 | +96,414 | +0.85% | +0.38 |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 11,409,303 | +96,414 | +0.85% | +0.38 |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 11,325,027 | +12,138 | +0.11% | +0.05 |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 10,878,408 | -434,481 | -3.84% | -1.72 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 2.23%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó mhí go mí; líon na n-athruithe: 35) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh. Foilsíodh luach amháin ar a laghad a úsáideadh lasmuigh den fhuinneog (−30 – +90); síneadh an ais chun a thaispeáint cá bhfuil sé i ndáiríre.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | -0.0120 | -0.012 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | -0.0149 | -0.015 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | -0.0083 | -0.008 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −3 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0 | 0.000 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| −1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0 | 0.000 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| T0 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0 | 0.000 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0 | 0.000 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | -0.0319 | -0.032 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | -0.0319 | -0.032 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.0219 | +0.022 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.0502 | +0.050 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | -0.0511 | -0.051 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | -0.0743 | -0.074 | neamhfhoilsithe | neamhfhoilsithe |
Ní fhoilsítear aon ghnáthluaineacht don tsraith seo: ní chuirtear aon athrú in iúl in aonaid luaineachta. Ionchur atá ar iarraidh é sin, ní nialas.
praghas le cánacha an Fheasacháin Ola Sheachtainiúil
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh. Foilsíodh luach amháin ar a laghad a úsáideadh lasmuigh den fhuinneog (−30 – +90); síneadh an ais chun a thaispeáint cá bhfuil sé i ndáiríre.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 1.342 | -0.034 | -2.49% | -1.98 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 1.350 | -0.027 | -1.94% | -1.54 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 1.363 | -0.014 | -1.00% | -0.80 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1.377 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1.377 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1.377 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 1.377 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 1.375 | -0.002 | -0.14% | -0.11 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 1.375 | -0.002 | -0.14% | -0.11 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 1.500 | +0.123 | +8.96% | +7.14 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 1.681 | +0.304 | +22.07% | +17.60 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 1.443 | +0.066 | +4.78% | +3.81 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 1.512 | +0.136 | +9.86% | +7.86 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 1.25%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó sheachtain go seachtain; líon na n-athruithe: 155) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
praghas gan chánacha an Fheasacháin Ola Sheachtainiúil
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh. Foilsíodh luach amháin ar a laghad a úsáideadh lasmuigh den fhuinneog (−30 – +90); síneadh an ais chun a thaispeáint cá bhfuil sé i ndáiríre.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.6591 | -0.029 | -4.18% | -2.37 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.6656 | -0.022 | -3.23% | -1.83 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.6760 | -0.012 | -1.73% | -0.98 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6879 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6879 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6879 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6879 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6891 | +0.001 | +0.17% | +0.10 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6891 | +0.001 | +0.17% | +0.10 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.7943 | +0.106 | +15.48% | +8.77 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 1.011 | +0.323 | +46.92% | +26.60 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.9754 | +0.287 | +41.79% | +23.69 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 1.039 | +0.351 | +51.09% | +28.96 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 1.76%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó sheachtain go seachtain; líon na n-athruithe: 155) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh. Foilsíodh luach amháin ar a laghad a úsáideadh lasmuigh den fhuinneog (−30 – +90); síneadh an ais chun a thaispeáint cá bhfuil sé i ndáiríre.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.6833 | -0.005 | -0.80% | -0.97 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.6844 | -0.004 | -0.64% | -0.78 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.6869 | -0.002 | -0.27% | -0.33 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6888 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6888 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6888 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 0.6888 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6858 | -0.003 | -0.44% | -0.54 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6858 | -0.003 | -0.44% | -0.54 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.7057 | +0.017 | +2.45% | +2.98 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.6699 | -0.019 | -2.74% | -3.33 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.4672 | -0.222 | -32.18% | -39.10 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.4732 | -0.216 | -31.30% | -38.04 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 0.82%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó sheachtain go seachtain; líon na n-athruithe: 155) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 19.97 | +4.100 | +25.83% | +0.93 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 10.43 | -5.444 | -34.30% | -1.23 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 11.42 | -4.454 | -28.06% | -1.00 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 13.39 | -2.478 | -15.61% | -0.56 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 15.87 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 15.87 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 15.87 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 19.87 | +4.000 | +25.20% | +0.90 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 20.56 | +4.686 | +29.52% | +1.06 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 25.33 | +9.460 | +59.60% | +2.13 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 21.09 | +5.216 | +32.86% | +1.18 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 34.94 | +19.064 | +120.11% | +4.30 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 41.27 | +25.396 | +160.01% | +5.73 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 27.92%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó lá go lá; líon na n-athruithe: 733) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: laethanta ó dháta an teagmhais. Tá gach marc ag an dáta a raibh an figiúr foilsithe; sin mar a fhreagraíonn riail an luacha is déanaí ar eolas fritháireamh.
| Fritháireamh | Luach a úsáideadh | Luach | Δ abs. | Δ % | Aonaid luaineachta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 23.42 | -7.240 | -23.62% | -2.64 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 21.47 | -9.182 | -29.95% | -3.35 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 27.04 | -3.614 | -11.79% | -1.32 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 33.05 | +2.394 | +7.81% | +0.87 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 30.66 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 30.66 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27an luach céanna agus ag T0 | 30.66 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 41.29 | +10.636 | +34.69% | +3.88 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 48.07 | +17.412 | +56.80% | +6.35 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 56.03 | +25.378 | +82.78% | +9.26 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 56.07 | +25.418 | +82.91% | +9.28 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 58.29 | +27.632 | +90.14% | +10.08 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 43.07 | +12.418 | +40.51% | +4.53 |
Is ionann aonad luaineachta amháin don tsraith seo agus 8.94%: diall caighdeánach a hathruithe céatadáin féin (ó lá go lá; líon na n-athruithe: 733) sna trí bliana roimh an teagmhas. Ní tástáil suntasachta é.
Níl sé ar fáil: bac ceadúnais
Tá foinse ann agus ní cheadaíonn a ceadúnas dúinn í a athfhoilsiú. Níl na cainéil seo ar iarraidh ón domhan, ach ón leathanach seo amháin.
ráta tancaer (dirty) ó Mhurascaill na Peirse go dtí iarthuaisceart na hEorpa
Tá ceadúnais rátaí lastais tancaer den chineál a thoirmisceann go sainráite taispeáint phoiblí, iad a chur ar aghaidh agus sonraí díorthaithe (fíoraithe focal ar fhocal), agus ní fhoilsíonn aon institiúid oscailte ráta tancaer (ró 17: BLOCKED).
Fritháirimh san fhuinneog lena mbaineann sé seo: 13.
tagarmharc táirgí peitriliam AE
Is le dílseánaigh iad tagarmharcanna táirgí peitriliam an AE (Platts / Argus) agus níl cead athdháilte leo (ró 16: BLOCKED). Ní athróga ionadacha bailí don AE iad crack spreads SAM agus ní chuirtear ina n-áit iad.
Fritháirimh san fhuinneog lena mbaineann sé seo: 13.
corrlach scaglainne iarthuaisceart na hEorpa / crack spread
Níl aon sraith foilsithe de chorrlaigh scaglainne againn, agus theastódh tagarmharcanna táirgí ceadúnaithe an AE, nach bhféadfar a athfhoilsiú, chun corrlach a ríomh muid féin.
Fritháirimh san fhuinneog lena mbaineann sé seo: 13.
praghas mórdhíola (rack)
Is le dílseánaigh iad sraitheanna praghsanna mórdhíola (rack) agus níl cead athdháilte leo (ró 16: BLOCKED).
Fritháirimh san fhuinneog lena mbaineann sé seo: 13.
T0: 28/02/2026. Fuinneog bhunlíne: -90 go -31 lá. Fritháirimh a ríomhadh: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Modh 1.0, ríomh event_study-1.0, ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTC.
Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026): an é an chúis i ndáiríre?
Roinntear an cheist i ngnéithe a thomhaistear ar leithligh agus nach suimítear riamh in aon uimhir amháin. Insíonn gach ró an féidir linn an ghné sin a fheiceáil ar chor ar bith, agus tugann sé figiúr foilsithe amháin nuair is féidir.
Cainéil tarchuir praghsanna a bhfuil sonraí acu sa ríomh seo (as an ocht gcinn a thuairiscíonn an suíomh seo): 4 Ríofa. Líon na rónna thíos atá ann, ní tomhas.
Foilsíonn Modheolaíocht §11.1 na tairseacha a úsáideann na habairtí thíos: na hocht gcainéal go léir don chomparáid iomlán, trí cinn ar a laghad chun gur féidir an t-éileamh a thástáil anseo ar chor ar bith, agus tairseach (aonaid luaineachta) de 2.0 chun cur síos ar ghluaiseacht mar ghluaiseacht lasmuigh de ghnáthathraitheacht sraithe. Roghanna foclaíochta foilsithe iad sin, ní tástálacha staitistiúla.
| Gné | Stádas | Figiúr foilsithe, nó an fáth nach bhfuil ceann ann |
|---|---|---|
| Nochtadh díreach amhola (D1)An sciar den amhola allmhairithe a gcaithfidh a bealach dul trí Chaolas Hormuz. | Raon amháin | 0–34.94 % de na tonnaí allmhairithe fritháireamh: +30 d (2026-03) · gan lárphointe |
| Nochtadh díreach táirgí (D2)An sciar de na táirgí peitriliam allmhairithe a gcaithfidh a mbealach dul trí Chaolas Hormuz. | Raon amháin | 5.845–7.257 % de na tonnaí allmhairithe fritháireamh: +30 d (2026-03) · gan lárphointe |
| Laethanta cumhdaigh na gcúlstoc ola (D7)Líon na laethanta cumhdaigh atá sna cúlstoic ola foilsithe. Maolán i gcoinne suaitheadh soláthair, ní sciar d’allmhairí, agus ní cainéal praghais. | Breathnaithe | 91.48 lá cumhdaigh fritháireamh: +30 d (foilsithe: 2026-03-01)-0.08% i gcomparáid leis an leibhéal ag T0 = -0.03 aonaid luaineachta |
| Tagarmharc amholaAn praghas amhola luaite a mbunaítear praghas lastas Eorpach air. | Breathnaithe | 121.9 $ an bairille fritháireamh: +30 d (foilsithe: 2026-03-30)+70.89% i gcomparáid leis an leibhéal ag T0 = +36.70 aonaid luaineachta |
| Tagarmharc táirgí peitriliamAn praghas táirge luaite a mbunaíonn scaglanna agus mórdhíoltóirí a bpraghsanna air. | Níl sé ar fáil | Is le dílseánaigh iad tagarmharcanna táirgí peitriliam an AE (Platts / Argus) agus níl cead athdháilte leo (ró 16: BLOCKED). Ní athróga ionadacha bailí don AE iad crack spreads SAM agus ní chuirtear ina n-áit iad. |
| Corrlach scaglainneAn méid a tuilleadh as bairille a scagadh chun an táirge seo a dhéanamh. | Níl sé ar fáil | Níl aon sraith foilsithe de chorrlaigh scaglainne againn, agus theastódh tagarmharcanna táirgí ceadúnaithe an AE, nach bhféadfar a athfhoilsiú, chun corrlach a ríomh muid féin. |
| Rátaí lastaisCé mhéad a chosain sé an lasta a sheoladh. | Níl sé ar fáil | Tá ceadúnais rátaí lastais tancaer den chineál a thoirmisceann go sainráite taispeáint phoiblí, iad a chur ar aghaidh agus sonraí díorthaithe (fíoraithe focal ar fhocal), agus ní fhoilsíonn aon institiúid oscailte ráta tancaer (ró 17: BLOCKED). |
| StoicStoic a choinnítear, a mhaolaíonn nó a mhéadaíonn athrú soláthair. | Breathnaithe | 11,409,303 t fritháireamh: +30 d (foilsithe: 2026-03-01)+0.85% i gcomparáid leis an leibhéal ag T0 = +0.38 aonaid luaineachta |
| Praghsanna mórdhíolaAn praghas idir geata na scaglainne agus an stáisiún peitril. | Níl sé ar fáil | Is le dílseánaigh iad sraitheanna praghsanna mórdhíola (rack) agus níl cead athdháilte leo (ró 16: BLOCKED). |
| Praghas ag an gcaidéal gan chánachaAn praghas ag an gcaidéal agus an dleacht mháil, an CBL agus cánacha eile ar bhreosla bainte de. | Breathnaithe | 1.011 € an lítear fritháireamh: +30 d (foilsithe: 2026-03-30)+46.92% i gcomparáid leis an leibhéal ag T0 = +26.60 aonaid luaineachta |
| Praghas ag an gcaidéal le cáinAn méid a d’íoc tiománaí i ndáiríre. | Breathnaithe | 1.681 € an lítear fritháireamh: +30 d (foilsithe: 2026-03-30)+22.07% i gcomparáid leis an leibhéal ag T0 = +17.60 aonaid luaineachta |
Is ceisteanna éagsúla iad nochtadh fisiceach (Caolas Hormuz) agus nochtadh praghais. Is féidir le praghas ag an gcaidéal bogadh fiú i dtír nach bhfuil mórán nochta fhisicigh dhírigh aici: praghsáiltear amhola go domhanda, agus d’fhéadfadh sraith a bhog san fhuinneog seo bogadh ar chúiseanna eile.
Cad a rinne an praghas ag an gcaidéal thart ar an dáta seo
Is féidir leathanach an mhiondealaithe a shocrú ar na seachtainí thart ar dháta an teagmhais, ionas gur féidir an ghluaiseacht ag an gcaidéal a roinnt ina cáin, ina costas ionchuir agus sa chuid nach gclúdaíonn an costas ionchuir.
Miondealú an phraghais, 21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026 →
Is í an fhuinneog dáta foilsithe an teagmhais lúide 7 lá go dtí móide 30 lá. Fuinneog le breathnú tríthi atá ann, ní éileamh gurbh é an teagmhas bunús an ruda atá inti.
An t-athrú iarbhír agus an t-athrú ón amhola amháin: an Pholainn, peitreal (Euro-super 95)
Cad a rinne an praghas gan chánacha ó cheithre seachtaine roimh sheachtain an teagmhais go dtí trí seachtaine déag ina diaidh, taobh leis an méid a dhéanfadh sé dá leanfadh sé costas ionchuir na hamhola amháin ar an luas a thomhaiseann an meastachán stóráilte ar an tarchur praghsanna. Níl an difríocht scáthaithe mínithe ag an amhola; ní shanntar don teagmhas ná d’aon rud eile í.
- An t-athrú iarbhír gan chánacha(praghsanna oifigiúla)
- An méid a dhéanfadh an amhola amháin(ríofa, le raon)
- Scáthaithe: gan mhíniú ag an amhola(gan sannadh d’aon chúis)
Tomhaistear na hathruithe ón tseachtain feasacháin seo: 2026-02-23. Freagra na hamhola tógtha ón meastachán tarchuir praghsanna atá stóráilte; bunús an mheastacháin: an fhuinneog trí bliana is déanaí (2023-09-25 – 2026-09-14). Is raon coimeádach é an banda éadrom, ní eatramh 90%. An limistéar scáthaithe: gan mhíniú ag an amhola. Tá corrlaigh scaglainne, lastas, corrlaigh mhiondíola agus earráid na samhla ar fad ann, agus ní ainmnítear aon cheann acu mar an chúis.
- Pointe tagartha: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026). Laistigh den fhad ón bpointe sin (4 seachtaine), d’athródh costais na hamhola amháin an praghas gan chánacha (peitreal, an Pholainn) +21.7 c/l (raon +16.2–+27.3); d’athraigh sé +25.2 c/l i ndáiríre, agus tá +3.5 c/l fágtha gan mhíniú ag an amhola. Thar an tréimhse chéanna, leathnaigh crack spread SAM (gásailín), athróg ionadach do mhargadh táirgí an Atlantaigh agus ní corrlach Eorpach, 9.9 $/bbl.
- Pointe tagartha: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026). Laistigh den fhad ón bpointe sin (seachtainí: 13), d’athródh costais na hamhola amháin an praghas gan chánacha (peitreal, an Pholainn) +42.6 c/l (raon +25.5–+59.7); d’athraigh sé +35.1 c/l i ndáiríre, agus tá -7.4 c/l fágtha gan mhíniú ag an amhola. Thar an tréimhse chéanna, leathnaigh crack spread SAM (gásailín), athróg ionadach do mhargadh táirgí an Atlantaigh agus ní corrlach Eorpach, 27.0 $/bbl.
An méid a dtacaíonn na huimhreacha leis, abairt ar abairt
Tagann gach abairt ó theimpléad seasta, arna roghnú de réir tairseach foilsithe. Oscail “Cén fáth an abairt seo” chun na huimhreacha a roghnaigh í a fheiceáil. Níor scríobh múnla teanga aon chuid den téacs seo, agus ní shanntar cúis in aon áit ann.
Teagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 7 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (gan chánacha, peitreal, an Pholainn) +0.2%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 0.1, laistigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.6890676317661082
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 0.4098357314012842
- t0_value
- 0.6878650944071915
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 0.1748216865042543
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.09911256157500328
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.0012025373589167332
- change_pct_from_t0
- 0.1748216865042543
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7638701263104604
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.09911256157500328
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.6890676317661082
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 0.4098357314012842
- t0_value
- 0.6878650944071915
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 0.1748216865042543
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.09911256157500328
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.0012025373589167332
- change_pct_from_t0
- 0.1748216865042543
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7638701263104604
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.09911256157500328
Teimpléad
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Méarlorg10e741ec052392dc8cd8a7fd3df03442afdf3e44defcbfcb95526f96946e7c09· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 30 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (gan chánacha, peitreal, an Pholainn) +46.9%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 26.6, lasmuigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.0106180207243636
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 16.961075657019823
- t0_value
- 0.6878650944071915
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 46.92096298262141
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 26.601143861292886
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3227529263171721
- change_pct_from_t0
- 46.92096298262141
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7638701263104604
- change_in_volatility_units
- 26.601143861292886
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.0106180207243636
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 16.961075657019823
- t0_value
- 0.6878650944071915
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 46.92096298262141
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 26.601143861292886
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3227529263171721
- change_pct_from_t0
- 46.92096298262141
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7638701263104604
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 26.601143861292886
Teimpléad
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Méarlorg5bda2ee092635172d98b4e099248c7613b5bc44ea26751390cda5aff42b709b2· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 90 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (gan chánacha, peitreal, an Pholainn) +51.1%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 29.0, lasmuigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.0392610029225045
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 18.435422716846254
- t0_value
- 0.6878650944071915
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 51.08500363987059
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 28.96188493578414
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.351395908515313
- change_pct_from_t0
- 51.08500363987059
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7638701263104604
- change_in_volatility_units
- 28.96188493578414
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.0392610029225045
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 18.435422716846254
- t0_value
- 0.6878650944071915
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 51.08500363987059
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 28.96188493578414
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.351395908515313
- change_pct_from_t0
- 51.08500363987059
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7638701263104604
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 28.96188493578414
Teimpléad
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Méarlorgddac92820b104884b6f8e02d5f0df8c448d9482ee2d85a16662236ac1e74c3ce· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 7 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (le cáin, peitreal, an Pholainn) -0.1%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 0.1, laistigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.3748214952721247
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 0.36512288860943637
- t0_value
- 1.376680544199237
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- -0.13503851238004771
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -0.10765608594719868
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.0018590489271121946
- change_pct_from_t0
- -0.13503851238004771
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.254350937914268
- change_in_volatility_units
- -0.10765608594719868
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.3748214952721247
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 0.36512288860943637
- t0_value
- 1.376680544199237
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- -0.13503851238004771
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -0.10765608594719868
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.0018590489271121946
- change_pct_from_t0
- -0.13503851238004771
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.254350937914268
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- -0.10765608594719868
Teimpléad
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Méarlorg8a14a184e491b4fc9bcc62edc073af086dda145b2d0d5cea4b6536522c9759bb· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 30 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (le cáin, peitreal, an Pholainn) +22.1%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 17.6, lasmuigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.6805544406116442
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 14.038370871256584
- t0_value
- 1.376680544199237
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 22.07294188131054
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 17.5971023850896
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.30387389641240725
- change_pct_from_t0
- 22.07294188131054
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.254350937914268
- change_in_volatility_units
- 17.5971023850896
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.6805544406116442
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 14.038370871256584
- t0_value
- 1.376680544199237
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 22.07294188131054
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 17.5971023850896
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.30387389641240725
- change_pct_from_t0
- 22.07294188131054
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.254350937914268
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 17.5971023850896
Teimpléad
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Méarlorg183a419d899029213d9f30e5db90536a4d5e9d4bf90a0291e8f1f4d57c07bfea· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 90 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (le cáin, peitreal, an Pholainn) +9.9%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 7.9, lasmuigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.512443966046847
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 6.519991703279341
- t0_value
- 1.376680544199237
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 9.86165036032949
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 7.861954786534795
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.13576342184761003
- change_pct_from_t0
- 9.86165036032949
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.254350937914268
- change_in_volatility_units
- 7.861954786534795
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.512443966046847
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 6.519991703279341
- t0_value
- 1.376680544199237
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 9.86165036032949
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 7.861954786534795
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.13576342184761003
- change_pct_from_t0
- 9.86165036032949
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.254350937914268
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 7.861954786534795
Teimpléad
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Méarlorg1b977954b2ec36e422403773274c57d8960307584236b8b91a82b16ff48f97a8· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 7 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (gan chánacha, díosal, an Pholainn) +0.6%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 0.3, laistigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.7606779233538215
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- -0.22353821451800696
- t0_value
- 0.7559494265037078
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 0.6255043901525442
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.3346792792156067
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.004728496850113673
- change_pct_from_t0
- 0.6255043901525442
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.8689665868127514
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.3346792792156067
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.7606779233538215
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- -0.22353821451800696
- t0_value
- 0.7559494265037078
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 0.6255043901525442
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.3346792792156067
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.004728496850113673
- change_pct_from_t0
- 0.6255043901525442
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.8689665868127514
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.3346792792156067
Teimpléad
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Méarlorg9f2bd4dd27d0584f93fcea23943eed310350c237c802b6dc1a1121cb223b1c74· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 30 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (gan chánacha, díosal, an Pholainn) +73.4%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 39.3, lasmuigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.3105366344144678
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 21.697418406063733
- t0_value
- 0.7559494265037078
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 73.3630039876801
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 39.25324535244365
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.55458720791076
- change_pct_from_t0
- 73.3630039876801
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.8689665868127514
- change_in_volatility_units
- 39.25324535244365
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.3105366344144678
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 21.697418406063733
- t0_value
- 0.7559494265037078
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 73.3630039876801
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 39.25324535244365
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.55458720791076
- change_pct_from_t0
- 73.3630039876801
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.8689665868127514
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 39.25324535244365
Teimpléad
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Méarlorgf29c850fd813f1f0fdfdff90cbbe1b11ff4ff48356235fc66e16a536d8601469· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 90 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (gan chánacha, díosal, an Pholainn) +50.1%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 26.8, lasmuigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.1345238736434997
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 14.680401096132154
- t0_value
- 0.7559494265037078
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 50.079335186576145
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 26.795200909385496
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.37857444713979194
- change_pct_from_t0
- 50.079335186576145
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.8689665868127514
- change_in_volatility_units
- 26.795200909385496
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.1345238736434997
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 14.680401096132154
- t0_value
- 0.7559494265037078
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 50.079335186576145
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 26.795200909385496
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.37857444713979194
- change_pct_from_t0
- 50.079335186576145
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.8689665868127514
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 26.795200909385496
Teimpléad
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Méarlorg9f7dde8b0ee8c20c38fb89bdc98718311a1b6907c1d14ecb8e5e7ee19ff10c47· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 7 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (le cáin, díosal, an Pholainn) +0.2%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 0.1, laistigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.42645137635668
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- -0.24270033100231916
- t0_value
- 1.4237427228712034
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 0.19024880281839987
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.14059059964322015
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.002708653485476553
- change_pct_from_t0
- 0.19024880281839987
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.353211404611677
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.14059059964322015
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.42645137635668
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- -0.24270033100231916
- t0_value
- 1.4237427228712034
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 0.19024880281839987
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.14059059964322015
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.002708653485476553
- change_pct_from_t0
- 0.19024880281839987
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.353211404611677
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.14059059964322015
Teimpléad
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Méarlorgfaa806b68b099886deac36fc273ec75565a884c75a6667cba706ee4719d60c85· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 30 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (le cáin, díosal, an Pholainn) +41.7%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 30.8, lasmuigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 2.0173956875014016
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 20.820812446880083
- t0_value
- 1.4237427228712034
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 41.69664610702998
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 30.813105746027478
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.5936529646301982
- change_pct_from_t0
- 41.69664610702998
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.353211404611677
- change_in_volatility_units
- 30.813105746027478
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 2.0173956875014016
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 20.820812446880083
- t0_value
- 1.4237427228712034
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 41.69664610702998
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 30.813105746027478
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.5936529646301982
- change_pct_from_t0
- 41.69664610702998
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.353211404611677
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 30.813105746027478
Teimpléad
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Méarlorg5cfe032aee15f507573b66a328081bdc6c5fb8a7e028e89d3b604a98cc1a8420· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 90 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an praghas (le cáin, díosal, an Pholainn) +11.4%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó sheachtain go seachtain sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 8.4, lasmuigh den raon sin.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.585800980134342
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 5.4371282958600995
- t0_value
- 1.4237427228712034
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 11.382552104380375
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 8.411510622500819
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.1620582572631386
- change_pct_from_t0
- 11.382552104380375
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.353211404611677
- change_in_volatility_units
- 8.411510622500819
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.585800980134342
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 5.4371282958600995
- t0_value
- 1.4237427228712034
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 11.382552104380375
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 8.411510622500819
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.1620582572631386
- change_pct_from_t0
- 11.382552104380375
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.353211404611677
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 8.411510622500819
Teimpléad
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Méarlorg27e124b5deb580a536ff57a907b0b672a8c5529a4d67b2bb0b8df1ff5d5b19bc· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCPointe tagartha: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026). Laistigh den fhad ón bpointe sin (4 seachtaine), d’athródh costais na hamhola amháin an praghas gan chánacha (peitreal, an Pholainn) +21.7 c/l (raon +16.2–+27.3); d’athraigh sé +25.2 c/l i ndáiríre, agus tá +3.5 c/l fágtha gan mhíniú ag an amhola. Thar an tréimhse chéanna, leathnaigh crack spread SAM (gásailín), athróg ionadach do mhargadh táirgí an Atlantaigh agus ní corrlach Eorpach, 9.9 $/bbl.
tír: an PholainnRíofaMeánachCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.034980539795025606
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.2522623289986422
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.2172817892036166
- proxy_volatility_units
- 2.8999750350600633
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 9.9
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.16165897601280885
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.2729046023944239
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Tairseacha
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.034980539795025606
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.2522623289986422
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.2172817892036166
- proxy_volatility_units
- 2.8999750350600633
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 9.9
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.16165897601280885
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.2729046023944239
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Teimpléad
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.2 · Méarlorg48dd4f2fefcf59dea1c1a2975104728119aa7cc0e72bbfcfcaf28db38ec977c6· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCPointe tagartha: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026). Laistigh den fhad ón bpointe sin (seachtainí: 13), d’athródh costais na hamhola amháin an praghas gan chánacha (peitreal, an Pholainn) +42.6 c/l (raon +25.5–+59.7); d’athraigh sé +35.1 c/l i ndáiríre, agus tá -7.4 c/l fágtha gan mhíniú ag an amhola. Thar an tréimhse chéanna, leathnaigh crack spread SAM (gásailín), athróg ionadach do mhargadh táirgí an Atlantaigh agus ní corrlach Eorpach, 27.0 $/bbl.
tír: an PholainnRíofaMeánachCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.07429860165461383
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.351395908515313
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.4256945101699268
- proxy_volatility_units
- 7.918982333112501
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 27.034
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.25468338869050183
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.5967056316493498
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Tairseacha
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.07429860165461383
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.351395908515313
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.4256945101699268
- proxy_volatility_units
- 7.918982333112501
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 27.034
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.25468338869050183
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.5967056316493498
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Teimpléad
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.2 · Méarlorg28c6cc0064fcc7f70d17a1a6c85fca06d8c511fccabefd7579be467c7ab1d7b4· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCPointe tagartha: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026). Laistigh den fhad ón bpointe sin (4 seachtaine), d’athródh costais na hamhola amháin an praghas gan chánacha (díosal, an Pholainn) +32.4 c/l (raon +19.1–+45.6); d’athraigh sé +46.2 c/l i ndáiríre, agus tá +13.9 c/l fágtha gan mhíniú ag an amhola. Thar an tréimhse chéanna, leathnaigh crack spread SAM (díosal), athróg ionadach do mhargadh táirgí an Atlantaigh agus ní corrlach Eorpach, 28.8 $/bbl.
tír: an PholainnRíofaMeánachCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 1
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.13861054678796125
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.46213260642908616
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.3235220596411249
- proxy_volatility_units
- 10.98407307729496
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 28.757999999999996
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.1906360009812883
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.45640811830096134
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Tairseacha
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 1
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.13861054678796125
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.46213260642908616
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.3235220596411249
- proxy_volatility_units
- 10.98407307729496
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 28.757999999999996
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.1906360009812883
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.45640811830096134
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Teimpléad
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.2 · Méarlorg148edd2cdfc75b0c15798e0a18f47a0987517061d214f81848823e6aae6fede5· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCPointe tagartha: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026). Laistigh den fhad ón bpointe sin (seachtainí: 13), d’athródh costais na hamhola amháin an praghas gan chánacha (díosal, an Pholainn) +45.8 c/l (raon +14.1–+77.5); d’athraigh sé +37.9 c/l i ndáiríre, agus tá -8.0 c/l fágtha gan mhíniú ag an amhola. Thar an tréimhse chéanna, leathnaigh crack spread SAM (díosal), athróg ionadach do mhargadh táirgí an Atlantaigh agus ní corrlach Eorpach, 16.0 $/bbl.
tír: an PholainnRíofaMeánachCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 1
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.07961215525715815
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.37857444713979194
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.4581866023969501
- proxy_volatility_units
- 6.106591569642946
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 15.988
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.1409528887037786
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.7754203160901194
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Tairseacha
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 1
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.07961215525715815
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.37857444713979194
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.4581866023969501
- proxy_volatility_units
- 6.106591569642946
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 15.988
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.1409528887037786
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.7754203160901194
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Teimpléad
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.2 · Méarlorg65b1a453475f056abf7d69217a2c4fd953ace91b57db34ebb126a8ab3f94735d· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCSpleáchas fisiceach díreach ar Hormuz (amhola, an Pholainn, Feabhra 2026): suntasach (0%–45%). Ní fhoilsítear aon mheastachán pointe: onnmhairíonn na tíortha comhpháirtíochta i gceist ó laistigh agus ó lasmuigh de Mhurascaill na Peirse araon, agus níl an roinnt in aghaidh na tréimhse poiblí.
tír: an PholainnRíofaMeánachCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- significant
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- NO_OBSERVATION
- country
- Poland
- commodity
- crude
- dimension
- DIRECT_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- value_max_pct
- 45.3198558414965
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- RANGE_ONLY
- value_point_pct
- null
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
- band_applied_to
- upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
- dependence_limited_max_pct
- 10
- dependence_moderate_max_pct
- 33
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- significant
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- NO_OBSERVATION
- country
- Poland
- commodity
- crude
- dimension
- DIRECT_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- value_max_pct
- 45.3198558414965
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- RANGE_ONLY
- statement_topic
- hormuz
- value_point_pct
- null
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Teimpléad
event.dependence.rangev1.2 · Méarlorgb8cc13f9c93659c2e424c9c531b3e080d12db057b47e14f50897fb823ad5327e· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCSpleáchas fisiceach díreach ar Hormuz (táirgí peitriliam, an Pholainn, Feabhra 2026): teoranta (0%).
tír: an PholainnRíofaÍsealCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- commodity
- refined product
- dimension
- DIRECT_PRODUCT
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- value_max_pct
- 0
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- value_point_pct
- 0
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
- band_applied_to
- upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
- dependence_limited_max_pct
- 10
- dependence_moderate_max_pct
- 33
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- commodity
- refined product
- dimension
- DIRECT_PRODUCT
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- value_max_pct
- 0
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- statement_topic
- hormuz
- value_point_pct
- 0
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Teimpléad
event.dependence.pointv1.2 · Méarlorg6b91e3ff4390567aee518883851be529573c02dbf8ec065b14af808c13b53e55· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCLéiríonn an fhianaise atá ar fáil laghdú fisiceach soláthair: allmhairí amhola tuairiscithe (an Pholainn, Feabhra 2026) i gcomparáid le meán na míonna roimhe sin (12): -11.6%.
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- country
- Poland
- change_pct
- -11.590611436901764
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- value_tonnes
- 1862117
- baseline_months
- 12
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
- crude_imports_rule
- crude_imports_total-1.1
- baseline_mean_tonnes
- 2106243.5
- baseline_window_months
- 12
- value_not_published_code
- null
- baseline_not_published_months
- 0
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
- min_baseline_months
- 6
- baseline_months_used
- 12
- supply_reduction_pct
- -10
- supply_baseline_months
- 12
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- country
- Poland
- change_pct
- -11.590611436901764
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- value_tonnes
- 1862117
- baseline_months
- 12
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
- crude_imports_rule
- crude_imports_total-1.1
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- baseline_mean_tonnes
- 2106243.5
- baseline_window_months
- 12
- value_not_published_code
- null
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- baseline_not_published_months
- 0
Teimpléad
event.supply.reductionv1.2 · Méarlorg356d4bb7554ccf71e9ec12f9604cbef145c4a210f17ebcb7e7a4d2fc1f3321dc· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCStoic ola (an Pholainn, Feabhra 2026): 0.2% faoi bhun a meáin thar na míonna roimhe sin (12), laistigh den bhanda ±5% a mheasann an suíomh seo a bheith ag teacht leis an meán, le 91.6 lá cumhdaigh (mar a foilsíodh).
tír: an PholainnRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- direction
- below
- siec_code
- O4000
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- holder_type
- STK_CL
- series_code
- INVENTORY_PL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- days_of_cover
- 91.551
- metric_status
- COMPUTED
- mom_change_pct
- 0.6887272643771216
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
- total_stock_tonnes
- 11312889
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- observation_gap_days
- 27
- trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
- 11336444.75
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
- -0.2077878075487467
- trailing_12m_observations
- 12
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
- band_applied_to
- the rounded figure printed in the sentence
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- trailing_window_months
- 12
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
- -0.2077878075487467
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
- -0.2
- inventory_material_deviation_pct
- 5
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- direction
- below
- siec_code
- O4000
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- holder_type
- STK_CL
- series_code
- INVENTORY_PL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- days_of_cover
- 91.551
- metric_status
- COMPUTED
- mom_change_pct
- 0.6887272643771216
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
- total_stock_tonnes
- 11312889
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 27
- trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
- 11336444.75
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
- -0.2077878075487467
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- trailing_12m_observations
- 12
Teimpléad
event.inventory_level.in_linev1.2 · Méarlorg4dfa9d0c3ac5415cb6d99ed8d0c4bb30a573765e6fe77ab35304d5badf0ff58d· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCAchoimre ar a bhféadfar a sheiceáil anseo
An Pholainn, teagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026). Ní féidir ach cuid den slabhra a sheiceáil. Sraitheanna a chuireann an modh i gcomparáid atá ar fáil: 4 as 8 (tagarmharc amhola, stoic, praghas ag an gcaidéal gan chánacha agus praghas ag an gcaidéal le cáin); nach bhfuil ar fáil: tagarmharc táirgí peitriliam, corrlach scaglainne, rátaí lastais agus praghsanna mórdhíola. Ní féidir aon éileamh atá bunaithe ar na naisc atá ar iarraidh a thástáil anseo. Spleáchas fisiceach díreach ar amhola a bhaineann le Hormuz sa tréimhse a chlúdaítear: suntasach (0–45%). Déanann an leathanach seo cur síos ar cad a rinne gach sraith thart ar dháta an teagmhais. Ní fionnachtain faoi chúis é: níl aon dearadh cúiseach foilsithe don suíomh seo, agus d’fhéadfadh sraith a bhog san fhuinneog chéanna bogadh ar chúiseanna eile.
tír: an PholainnAnaithnidAnaithnidCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- country
- Poland
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- dependence_band
- significant
- dependence_range
- 0–45%
- channels_available
- ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
- supply_template_id
- event.supply.reduction
- channels_unavailable
- ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
- channels_total
- 8
- channels_available
- 4
- verdict_partial_min_channels
- 3
- verdict_assessable_min_channels
- 8
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- country
- Poland
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- dependence_band
- significant
- statement_topic
- event
- dependence_range
- 0–45%
- channels_available
- ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
- supply_template_id
- event.supply.reduction
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- channels_unavailable
- ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Teimpléad
event.verdict.partialv1.2 · Méarlorgf18740191a11b26828ac49b4f68f2d171216fff325fd6ffb7583e5c3b632ff08· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 7 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an tagarmharc (amhola Brent) +34.2%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó lá go lá sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 17.7, lasmuigh den raon sin.
faoin teagmhas ina iomláineRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 95.74
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 11.429511613277612
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 34.24004486819967
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 24.42
- change_pct_from_t0
- 34.24004486819967
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- change_in_volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 95.74
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 11.429511613277612
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 34.24004486819967
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 24.42
- change_pct_from_t0
- 34.24004486819967
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
Teimpléad
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Méarlorg4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 30 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an tagarmharc (amhola Brent) +70.9%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó lá go lá sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 36.7, lasmuigh den raon sin.
faoin teagmhas ina iomláineRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 121.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 20.908399390463835
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 70.89175546831184
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 50.56
- change_pct_from_t0
- 70.89175546831184
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- change_in_volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 121.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 20.908399390463835
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 70.89175546831184
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 50.56
- change_pct_from_t0
- 70.89175546831184
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
Teimpléad
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Méarlorg29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTeagmhas: Suaitheadh loingseoireachta i gCaolas Hormuz (2026); 90 lá ina dhiaidh: bhog an tagarmharc (amhola Brent) +30.2%; i gcomparáid lena ghnáthathrú ó lá go lá sna trí bliana roimhe sin, aonaid luaineachta: 15.6, lasmuigh den raon sin.
faoin teagmhas ina iomláineRíofaArdCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 92.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 10.392418306362824
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 30.22994952327538
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-05-29
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 21.560000000000002
- change_pct_from_t0
- 30.22994952327538
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- change_in_volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
Tairseacha
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 92.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 10.392418306362824
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 30.22994952327538
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-05-29
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 21.560000000000002
- change_pct_from_t0
- 30.22994952327538
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
Teimpléad
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Méarlorgda6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCRátaí lastais – freagra: ní féidir a mheas. Fáth: tá ceadúnais rátaí lastais tancaer den chineál a thoirmisceann go sainráite taispeáint phoiblí, iad a chur ar aghaidh agus sonraí díorthaithe (fíoraithe focal ar fhocal), agus ní fhoilsíonn aon institiúid oscailte ráta tancaer.
faoin teagmhas ina iomláineAnaithnidAnaithnidCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["freight rates"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Tairseacha
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["freight rates"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Teimpléad
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Méarlorgcbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCTagarmharc táirgí peitriliam – freagra: ní féidir a mheas. Fáth: is le dílseánaigh iad tagarmharcanna táirgí peitriliam an AE (Platts / Argus) agus níl cead athdháilte leo. Ní athróga ionadacha bailí don AE iad crack spreads SAM agus ní chuirtear ina n-áit iad.
faoin teagmhas ina iomláineAnaithnidAnaithnidCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refined-product benchmark"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Tairseacha
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refined-product benchmark"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Teimpléad
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Méarlorg8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCPraghsanna mórdhíola – freagra: ní féidir a mheas. Fáth: is le dílseánaigh iad sraitheanna praghsanna mórdhíola (rack) agus níl cead athdháilte leo.
faoin teagmhas ina iomláineAnaithnidAnaithnidCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["wholesale prices"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Tairseacha
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["wholesale prices"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Teimpléad
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Méarlorgcb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTCCorrlach scaglainne – freagra: ní féidir a mheas. Fáth: níl aon sraith foilsithe de chorrlaigh scaglainne againn, agus theastódh tagarmharcanna táirgí ceadúnaithe an AE, nach bhféadfar a athfhoilsiú, chun corrlach a ríomh muid féin.
faoin teagmhas ina iomláineAnaithnidAnaithnidCén fáth an abairt seo (i mBéarla)
Athróga
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refining margin"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Tairseacha
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Ionchuir
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refining margin"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Teimpléad
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Méarlorgc3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8· ríomh event_statements-1.0 · ríofa 03/10/2026, 17:47 UTC
An méid nach dtaispeánann sé seo
- Ní thaispeánann sé gurbh é an teagmhas bunús aon ruda. Níl aon dearadh cúiseach foilsithe don suíomh seo, agus d’fhéadfadh sraith a bhog san fhuinneog seo bogadh ar chúiseanna eile.
- Ní tástáil suntasachta é athrú in aonaid luaineachta, agus ní tástáil suntasachta é scór z ach an oiread. Tomhaiseann siad rudaí éagsúla agus ní féidir ceann a chur in áit an chinn eile.
- Taispeántar cainéil nach bhfuil foinse acu a bhfuil ceadúnas againn chun í a úsáid, nó foinse lódáilte, mar phainéil fholmha, ní mar línte cothroma. Ní hionann “Ní féidir linn é seo a fheiceáil” agus “Níor bhog sé seo”.
- Ní idirshuitear aon rud. Nuair a thagann roinnt fritháireamh ar an bhfigiúr foilsithe céanna, is é sin a phriontáil an foilsitheoir, agus is nialas an t-athrú i gcoinne dháta an teagmhais: is í an uimhir chéanna í.
An Pholainn: soláthar, scaglanna agus praghsanna ag an gcaidéal →
Conas na lipéid a léamh
- OifigiúilTuairiscithe go díreach ag údarás oifigiúil.
- FíoraitheTuairiscithe ag tríú páirtí agus fíoraithe againn i gcoinne taifid phríomhúil.
- RíofaRíofa againn ó ionchuir thuairiscithe. Tá an modh foilsithe ar leathanach na modheolaíochta.
- Infeirithe · muinín ardNíor tuairiscíodh. Infeirithe ó dhá thaifead fhisiceacha neamhspleácha ar a laghad.
- Infeirithe · muinín mheánachNíor tuairiscíodh. Infeirithe ó fhianaise láidir indíreach, gan deimhniú follasach.
- Infeirithe · muinín ísealNíor tuairiscíodh. Sochreidte ó shonraí bonneagair nó gluaiseachta amháin. Ná léigh mar fhíric é.
- AnaithnidNí chruthaíonn aon fhianaise phoiblí inchosanta é seo. Ní thugaimid buille faoi thuairim, agus ní tomhas nialais é seo.