Avvenimenti / Projbizzjoni fuq l-importazzjoni

Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)

Dati: 05/02/2023 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Unjoni Ewropea

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Second phase of the sixth sanctions package of 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014): an eight-month wind-down for refined petroleum products against six months for seaborne crude. Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Recorded as a separate marker because each event on this timeline has a single start date and the two phases have different in-force dates. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Uffiċjali

Miġbur 25/09/2026 14:07 UTCReviżjoni 2

Dokumenti tas-sors (2)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Il-Bulgarija, Petrol (Euro-super 95). Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 15; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 4.

Qari ppubblikat: 169; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 26; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 52. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	76.41	-2.440	-3.09%	-0.68
−14	2023-01-20	86.96	+8.110	+10.29%	+2.27
−7	2023-01-27	85.36	+6.510	+8.26%	+1.82
−3	2023-02-02	80.57	+1.720	+2.18%	+0.48
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	78.85	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	78.85	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	80.48	+1.630	+2.07%	+0.46
+3	2023-02-08	84.17	+5.320	+6.75%	+1.49
+7	2023-02-10	85.46	+6.610	+8.38%	+1.85
+14	2023-02-17	81.97	+3.120	+3.96%	+0.87
+30	2023-03-06	85.86	+7.010	+8.89%	+1.96
+60	2023-04-06	86.56	+7.710	+9.78%	+2.16
+90	2023-05-05	75.85	-3.000	-3.80%	-0.84

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.53%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 757). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	637,226	+240,081	+60.45%	+1.56
−14	2023-01-01	637,226	+240,081	+60.45%	+1.56
−7	2023-01-01	637,226	+240,081	+60.45%	+1.56
−3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	397,145	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	397,145	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	397,145	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	397,145	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	397,145	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	397,145	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	397,145	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	397,242	+97.000	+0.02%	+0.00
+60	2023-04-01	360,079	-37,066	-9.33%	-0.24
+90	2023-05-01	427,581	+30,436	+7.66%	+0.20

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 38.77%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 34). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.7157	-0.010	-1.34%	-0.70
−14	2023-01-16	0.7151	-0.010	-1.43%	-0.75
−7	2023-01-23	0.7211	-0.004	-0.61%	-0.32
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7255	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7255	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7255	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.7279	+0.002	+0.33%	+0.17
+3	2023-02-06	0.7279	+0.002	+0.33%	+0.17
+7	2023-02-06	0.7279	+0.002	+0.33%	+0.17
+14	2023-02-13	0.7279	+0.002	+0.33%	+0.17
+30	2023-03-06	0.7321	+0.007	+0.92%	+0.48
+60	2023-04-03	0.7145	-0.011	-1.52%	-0.79
+90	2023-05-01	0.7356	+0.010	+1.40%	+0.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	1.050	-0.044	-4.00%	-7.81
−14	2023-01-20	1.083	-0.011	-1.01%	-1.98
−7	2023-01-27	1.087	-0.007	-0.66%	-1.29
−3	2023-02-02	1.099	+0.005	+0.47%	+0.91
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.094	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.094	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.078	-0.016	-1.47%	-2.88
+3	2023-02-08	1.074	-0.020	-1.85%	-3.61
+7	2023-02-10	1.069	-0.025	-2.26%	-4.41
+14	2023-02-17	1.063	-0.031	-2.85%	-5.57
+30	2023-03-07	1.067	-0.027	-2.49%	-4.86
+60	2023-04-06	1.092	-0.002	-0.20%	-0.39
+90	2023-05-05	1.101	+0.008	+0.70%	+1.38

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.51%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 772). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Il-linja tieqaf f’dawn il-punti tat-tieqa, fejn ma ġiet ippubblikata l-ebda ċifra fi żmien perjodu wieħed: −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +60, +90.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2023-01-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2023-01-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2023-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2023-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2023-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2023-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2023-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2023-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2023-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-04-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-05-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	0–1.322	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2023-01-01	0–1.322	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2023-01-01	0–1.322	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2023-02-01	0–0.0189	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2023-02-01	0–0.0189	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2023-02-01	0–0.0189	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2023-02-01	0–0.0189	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2023-02-01	0–0.0189	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2023-02-01	0–0.0189	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2023-02-01	0–0.0189	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-03-01	0–0.0426	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-04-01	0–9.644	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-05-01	0–0.0945	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	80.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−14	2023-01-01	80.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2023-01-01	80.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	80.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	80.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	80.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	80.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	80.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	80.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	80.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	81.00	+1.000	+1.25%	+0.47
+60	2023-04-01	82.00	+2.000	+2.50%	+0.95
+90	2023-05-01	82.00	+2.000	+2.50%	+0.95

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.64%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.012	-2.58%	-0.32
−14	2023-01-16	0.4913	+0.019	+4.09%	+0.51
−7	2023-01-23	0.4969	+0.025	+5.28%	+0.65
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+3	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+7	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+14	2023-02-13	0.4951	+0.023	+4.89%	+0.61
+30	2023-03-06	0.4922	+0.020	+4.28%	+0.53
+60	2023-04-03	0.4959	+0.024	+5.07%	+0.63
+90	2023-05-01	0.4258	-0.046	-9.79%	-1.21

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.07%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	1,792,871	+81,612	+4.77%	+0.93
−14	2023-01-01	1,792,871	+81,612	+4.77%	+0.93
−7	2023-01-01	1,792,871	+81,612	+4.77%	+0.93
−3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,711,259	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,711,259	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,711,259	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,711,259	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,711,259	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,711,259	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,711,259	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	1,809,250	+97,991	+5.73%	+1.12
+60	2023-04-01	1,824,833	+113,574	+6.64%	+1.30
+90	2023-05-01	1,841,158	+129,899	+7.59%	+1.49

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 5.10%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	-0.0505	-0.051	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2023-01-16	0.0059	+0.006	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2023-01-23	-0.0030	-0.003	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2023-02-06	-0.0014	-0.001	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2023-02-06	-0.0014	-0.001	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2023-02-06	-0.0014	-0.001	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2023-02-13	-0.0014	-0.001	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-03-06	-0.0123	-0.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-04-03	-0.0004	-0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-05-01	-0.0126	-0.013	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	1.234	-0.072	-5.54%	-3.30
−14	2023-01-16	1.301	-0.005	-0.41%	-0.25
−7	2023-01-23	1.297	-0.009	-0.68%	-0.41
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.306	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.306	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.306	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.307	+0.001	+0.09%	+0.05
+3	2023-02-06	1.307	+0.001	+0.09%	+0.05
+7	2023-02-06	1.307	+0.001	+0.09%	+0.05
+14	2023-02-13	1.307	+0.001	+0.09%	+0.05
+30	2023-03-06	1.299	-0.007	-0.52%	-0.31
+60	2023-04-03	1.293	-0.014	-1.05%	-0.62
+90	2023-05-01	1.303	-0.003	-0.22%	-0.13

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.68%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.6652	-0.060	-8.30%	-3.00
−14	2023-01-16	0.7210	-0.005	-0.62%	-0.23
−7	2023-01-23	0.7181	-0.007	-1.02%	-0.37
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7255	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7255	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7255	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.7265	+0.001	+0.14%	+0.05
+3	2023-02-06	0.7265	+0.001	+0.14%	+0.05
+7	2023-02-06	0.7265	+0.001	+0.14%	+0.05
+14	2023-02-13	0.7265	+0.001	+0.14%	+0.05
+30	2023-03-06	0.7199	-0.006	-0.77%	-0.28
+60	2023-04-03	0.7141	-0.011	-1.57%	-0.57
+90	2023-05-01	0.7231	-0.002	-0.33%	-0.12

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.76%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.5687	-0.012	-2.07%	-3.50
−14	2023-01-16	0.5798	-0.001	-0.15%	-0.26
−7	2023-01-23	0.5792	-0.001	-0.26%	-0.43
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5807	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5807	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5807	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.5809	+0.000	+0.03%	+0.06
+3	2023-02-06	0.5809	+0.000	+0.03%	+0.06
+7	2023-02-06	0.5809	+0.000	+0.03%	+0.06
+14	2023-02-13	0.5809	+0.000	+0.03%	+0.06
+30	2023-03-06	0.5796	-0.001	-0.19%	-0.33
+60	2023-04-03	0.5785	-0.002	-0.39%	-0.66
+90	2023-05-01	0.5802	-0.000	-0.08%	-0.14

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.59%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	23.63	-0.710	-2.92%	-0.02
−14	2023-01-20	27.78	+3.440	+14.13%	+0.08
−7	2023-01-27	27.70	+3.360	+13.80%	+0.08
−3	2023-02-02	26.70	+2.354	+9.67%	+0.05
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	24.34	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	24.34	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	25.32	+0.974	+4.00%	+0.02
+3	2023-02-08	25.07	+0.728	+2.99%	+0.02
+7	2023-02-10	25.04	+0.698	+2.87%	+0.02
+14	2023-02-17	22.90	-1.440	-5.92%	-0.03
+30	2023-03-06	25.19	+0.844	+3.47%	+0.02
+60	2023-04-06	33.98	+9.636	+39.58%	+0.22
+90	2023-05-05	27.39	+3.042	+12.50%	+0.07

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 182.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 735). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	57.61	+28.228	+96.07%	+0.54
−14	2023-01-20	77.51	+48.128	+163.79%	+0.93
−7	2023-01-27	73.74	+44.352	+150.94%	+0.85
−3	2023-02-02	35.06	+5.672	+19.30%	+0.11
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	29.38	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	29.38	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	32.50	+3.116	+10.60%	+0.06
+3	2023-02-08	37.04	+7.658	+26.06%	+0.15
+7	2023-02-10	31.97	+2.588	+8.81%	+0.05
+14	2023-02-17	24.75	-4.632	-15.76%	-0.09
+30	2023-03-06	37.16	+7.774	+26.46%	+0.15
+60	2023-04-06	19.15	-10.230	-34.81%	-0.20
+90	2023-05-05	14.45	-14.934	-50.82%	-0.29

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 176.64%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 735). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 05/02/2023. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Xejn ippubblikat fit-tieqa	mhux ippubblikat
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	0–0.0426 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2023-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	81.00 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-01)+1.25% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +0.47 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	85.86 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)+8.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +1.96 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	1,809,250 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-01)+5.73% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +1.12 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	0.7199 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)-0.77% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.28 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	1.299 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)-0.52% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.31 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (29/01/2023 – 07/03/2023) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Bulgarija, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra.

Il-paragun maż-żejt mhux maħdum biss ma setax jinqara.

API 404 for /api/events/eu-russia-products-embargo-2023/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'eu-russia-products-embargo-2023' and country 'bulgaria'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’+0.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.7264700000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.5477585770801268
t0_value
0.7254900000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.1350811175894886
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.048860794721676884
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0009799999999999809
change_pct_from_t0
0.1350811175894886
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.764611553269731
change_in_volatility_units
0.048860794721676884
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.7264700000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.5477585770801268
t0_value
0.7254900000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.1350811175894886
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.048860794721676884
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0009799999999999809
change_pct_from_t0
0.1350811175894886
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.764611553269731
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.048860794721676884
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c87c1672aa87659bf02259922b1e02887e0eeac8e254366d56e1f39366c849a6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’-0.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.71988
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.6657235778303913
t0_value
0.7254900000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.7732704792623074
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.2797031208047125
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.005610000000000115
change_pct_from_t0
-0.7732704792623074
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.764611553269731
change_in_volatility_units
-0.2797031208047125
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.71988
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.6657235778303913
t0_value
0.7254900000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.7732704792623074
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.2797031208047125
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.005610000000000115
change_pct_from_t0
-0.7732704792623074
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.764611553269731
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.2797031208047125
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5dc5c4e9e7be8f51f876a6f11d11cbe57f42e48843ae98852f9ba4077a95e3ba · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’-0.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.7230599999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.6087996472710846
t0_value
0.7254900000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.33494603647192295
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.12115482772824966
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0024300000000001543
change_pct_from_t0
-0.33494603647192295
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.764611553269731
change_in_volatility_units
-0.12115482772824966
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.7230599999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.6087996472710846
t0_value
0.7254900000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.33494603647192295
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.12115482772824966
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0024300000000001543
change_pct_from_t0
-0.33494603647192295
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.764611553269731
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.12115482772824966
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b1a9067a960bb171196d5a2edd8f87cd0eb1f009010b1653d8110b592a61e7f3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’+0.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.30739
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.54776779535906
t0_value
1.3062200000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.0895714351334303
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.05336121890140688
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0011699999999998933
change_pct_from_t0
0.0895714351334303
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
1.6785867522802917
change_in_volatility_units
0.05336121890140688
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.30739
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.54776779535906
t0_value
1.3062200000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.0895714351334303
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.05336121890140688
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0011699999999998933
change_pct_from_t0
0.0895714351334303
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
1.6785867522802917
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.05336121890140688
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6b3f7d7d4703a0e51761fc4a7f969702910ab7854fea6968b0b7165bbeea8ad7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’-0.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.29948
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.6657681867761683
t0_value
1.3062200000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.5159927117943524
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.30739710717566265
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.00674000000000019
change_pct_from_t0
-0.5159927117943524
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.6785867522802917
change_in_volatility_units
-0.30739710717566265
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.29948
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.6657681867761683
t0_value
1.3062200000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.5159927117943524
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.30739710717566265
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.00674000000000019
change_pct_from_t0
-0.5159927117943524
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.6785867522802917
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.30739710717566265
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 644bb165126cae803274b798a066fbe1cdafe7242b74496e925be247f25c26e6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’-0.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.3033
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.6087819041954678
t0_value
1.3062200000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.22354580392278905
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.13317500785652645
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0029200000000002557
change_pct_from_t0
-0.22354580392278905
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.6785867522802917
change_in_volatility_units
-0.13317500785652645
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.3033
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-0.6087819041954678
t0_value
1.3062200000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.22354580392278905
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.13317500785652645
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0029200000000002557
change_pct_from_t0
-0.22354580392278905
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.6785867522802917
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.13317500785652645
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8b2eb57a4d48cc7c1f5cd9adb818d7433211fd4b806238d353d34eac403bd9b1 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’+0.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.2 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.90577
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-1.3826388369257347
t0_value
0.90215
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.40126364795210956
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.15971558864399701
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0036199999999999566
change_pct_from_t0
0.40126364795210956
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.5123637045004954
change_in_volatility_units
0.15971558864399701
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.90577
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-1.3826388369257347
t0_value
0.90215
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.40126364795210956
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.15971558864399701
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0036199999999999566
change_pct_from_t0
0.40126364795210956
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.5123637045004954
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.15971558864399701
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 957da0c7fb8ce56cf9659a15e33707f55cc1e59921b96f1148278d64b149f4dc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’-5.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.8545499999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-2.2044988160958723
t0_value
0.90215
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-5.276284431635547
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.100127629683526
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.04760000000000009
change_pct_from_t0
-5.276284431635547
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.5123637045004954
change_in_volatility_units
-2.100127629683526
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.8545499999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-2.2044988160958723
t0_value
0.90215
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-5.276284431635547
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.100127629683526
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.04760000000000009
change_pct_from_t0
-5.276284431635547
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.5123637045004954
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.100127629683526
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9ce4415ed5c601b69cc43f73630100e0c7f117b61d67f19d282fbdadb0c57437 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’-16.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’6.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.75536
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-3.796070298600476
t0_value
0.90215
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-16.271130078146648
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-6.476422999185801
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.14678999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-16.271130078146648
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.5123637045004954
change_in_volatility_units
-6.476422999185801
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.75536
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-3.796070298600476
t0_value
0.90215
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-16.271130078146648
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-6.476422999185801
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.14678999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-16.271130078146648
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.5123637045004954
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-6.476422999185801
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità eb86403dc43e1be6501b15788be145bf111d8a75a0e6f43e5254c79929297d31 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’+0.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.2 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.48328
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-1.3827461007168287
t0_value
1.47893
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.29413156809313856
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.18149589615603204
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.004349999999999854
change_pct_from_t0
0.29413156809313856
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
1.6205962466516248
change_in_volatility_units
0.18149589615603204
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.48328
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-1.3827461007168287
t0_value
1.47893
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.29413156809313856
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.18149589615603204
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.004349999999999854
change_pct_from_t0
0.29413156809313856
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
1.6205962466516248
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.18149589615603204
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 29d6db8fbfaff3e722f0696190b97f154961b1084fbf76852bf5d93054e1483e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’-3.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.4218199999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-2.2045668964258867
t0_value
1.47893
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-3.8615755985746594
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.3828116389589367
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.057110000000000216
change_pct_from_t0
-3.8615755985746594
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.6205962466516248
change_in_volatility_units
-2.3828116389589367
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.4218199999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-2.2045668964258867
t0_value
1.47893
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-3.8615755985746594
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.3828116389589367
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.057110000000000216
change_pct_from_t0
-3.8615755985746594
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.6205962466516248
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.3828116389589367
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cc13953174897289186e293e99449405340eb804d9604182146c596d05c465cd · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Bulgarija) inbidel b’-11.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’7.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.30279
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-3.796192820819785
t0_value
1.47893
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-11.909961931937291
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-7.3491234825113985
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.17614000000000019
change_pct_from_t0
-11.909961931937291
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.6205962466516248
change_in_volatility_units
-7.3491234825113985
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.30279
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
z_score
-3.796192820819785
t0_value
1.47893
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-11.909961931937291
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-7.3491234825113985
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.17614000000000019
change_pct_from_t0
-11.909961931937291
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.6205962466516248
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-7.3491234825113985
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 61016656fa1295020e1aa450db356780cbb13bb69e8a5c640f6b2ba0fc2c35d0 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Bulgarija) b’+0.5 c/l (firxa -0.4–+1.4); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-0.4 c/l, u jibqa’ -0.9 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Bulgaria
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.009002539572774963
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.003790000000000071
expected_eur_per_litre
0.005212539572774892
proxy_volatility_units
-0.06928868336620317
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-3.1020000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.003867112949721401
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.014292192095271203
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Bulgaria
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.009002539572774963
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.003790000000000071
expected_eur_per_litre
0.005212539572774892
proxy_volatility_units
-0.06928868336620317
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-3.1020000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.003867112949721401
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.014292192095271203
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e32884dc8d4cd6320e73c4389691fa32891c37ded3d872969b5fd3ab41b2507c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Bulgarija) b’+1.0 c/l (firxa -2.9–+4.9); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-0.2 c/l, u jibqa’ -1.3 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Bulgaria
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.012583308461466505
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.0024300000000001543
expected_eur_per_litre
0.010153308461466351
proxy_volatility_units
0.11373887030970548
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.091999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.029022552416667007
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.04932916933959981
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Bulgaria
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
4
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.012583308461466505
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.0024300000000001543
expected_eur_per_litre
0.010153308461466351
proxy_volatility_units
0.11373887030970548
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.091999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.029022552416667007
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.04932916933959981
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 38acf45736b0741c302555e2c4ac7a4100f7e6645630777cfba02ae8e3b0372b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Bulgarija) b’+1.5 c/l (firxa +0.3–+2.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-4.1 c/l, u jibqa’ -5.6 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Bulgaria
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
5
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.05643260838305736
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.041120000000000045
expected_eur_per_litre
0.015312608383057317
proxy_volatility_units
-1.9939207000691863
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-8.939999999999998
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.0026989741000317848
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.02792624266608279
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Bulgaria
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
5
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.05643260838305736
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.041120000000000045
expected_eur_per_litre
0.015312608383057317
proxy_volatility_units
-1.9939207000691863
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-8.939999999999998
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.0026989741000317848
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.02792624266608279
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ef33f6454f6c2296b69ef03f9773d792e2abe3fa4c6a1d607bdd330188223107 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Bulgarija) b’+4.2 c/l (firxa -1.3–+9.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-14.7 c/l, u jibqa’ -18.9 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, naqas b’27.3 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Bulgaria
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
5
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.18925159352521112
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.14678999999999998
expected_eur_per_litre
0.042461593525211144
proxy_volatility_units
-6.086587908824174
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-27.290000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.012626798785462726
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.09754998583588632
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Bulgaria
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
5
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.18925159352521112
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.14678999999999998
expected_eur_per_litre
0.042461593525211144
proxy_volatility_units
-6.086587908824174
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-27.290000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2008-01-07
pass_through_window_label
FULL_SAMPLE
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.012626798785462726
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.09754998583588632
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità db0bae8b7853a797e7142158d5617e4965cd519e68525f8e3dd1a3ec380d22f4 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Il-Bulgarija, Frar 2023: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) hija MHUX MAGĦRUFA: is-sors jirrapporta żero importazzjonijiet għal dan il-perjodu: m’hemm l-ebda volum li minnu jittieħed sehem – dan huwa żero rrappurtat, mhux data nieqsa.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Bulgaria
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
value_max_pct
null
value_min_pct
null
exposure_status
UNKNOWN
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Bulgaria
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
value_max_pct
null
value_min_pct
null
exposure_status
UNKNOWN
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.unknown v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb8fe9bedc08242507d359d89b8f31ae07c5701fe132d5ed3d569c2ed2cb8764 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Il-Bulgarija, Frar 2023: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%–0%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Bulgaria
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
value_max_pct
0.0188704168475082
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Bulgaria
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
value_max_pct
0.0188704168475082
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f170214331fd228212cbf4f93c6632e241ffa07acfb25d37f0b714a77a334360 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli turi tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (il-Bulgarija, Frar 2023) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): -34.2%.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
country
Bulgaria
change_pct
-34.244368487288234
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
value_tonnes
397145
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
603971.0833333334
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
0
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
country
Bulgaria
change_pct
-34.244368487288234
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
value_tonnes
397145
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
603971.0833333334
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
0
Mudell event.supply.reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb2c9d1b83182cdbf43c5a244c0fe95a05f7aa14c0d2f635ff21c3bcf4f7faff · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Frar 2023: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (il-Bulgarija) kienu 5.3% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12), jiem ta’ kopertura: 80.0 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_BG
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
days_of_cover
80
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-4.552028562010317
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
1711259
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
1624496.6666666667
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
5.340874814557945
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
5.340874814557945
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
5.3
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Bulgaria
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_BG
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
days_of_cover
80
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-4.552028562010317
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
1711259
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
1624496.6666666667
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
5.340874814557945
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.above v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ded843a76d89cc221cf7010cd22d4f1061931acf83b9a89d93641c03ece49dec · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (il-Bulgarija) madwar l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: il-BulgarijaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
country
Bulgaria
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
dependence_band
null
dependence_range
null
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
country
Bulgaria
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
BG
country_name
Bulgaria
country_slug
bulgaria
dependence_band
null
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
null
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b161a896f184148a90dd8b4e82d224502bbff164dce6a2b1e7fc9e7cb22c70fa · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+8.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.8 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.46
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.08812991325524933
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.383005707038683
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-02-10
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.609999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.383005707038683
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.46
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.08812991325524933
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.383005707038683
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-02-10
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.609999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.383005707038683
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 38adc5dea4321bbd49653a24f7c0174373d8aa5326085a6d6dbe425d5975e73b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+8.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.86
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.1507166248435324
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.890298034242239
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
7.010000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
8.890298034242239
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.86
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.1507166248435324
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.890298034242239
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
7.010000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
8.890298034242239
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0da9031a475f48ba9492ce0f26d02ef4b075756fb5a3ed508e2b5f1ea86c489b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’-3.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.8 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
75.85
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.4155158326532304
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-3.804692454026633
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-05-05
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-3
change_pct_from_t0
-3.804692454026633
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
75.85
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.4155158326532304
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-3.804692454026633
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-05-05
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-3
change_pct_from_t0
-3.804692454026633
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 956c15054a5318a99cfc9c833555e8d3f8ac980a1c014dbf655e5357d300335e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 298ab38a71e7fa1e827846158174e16f115ed958766d0a18618b16aa877096e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0a3ee8f8627510915169cd9a2eaa4452fa0806bd90c55f8208323cb6b271bea9 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b5b761de3451d820e679168f99a9b0a6cadccd3d87b852d57da6f18bc2de3e6c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e9796ff5d8838330a75be8298f9f4cd8c4fea863574dbd933141d0a1f568d3c6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Il-Bulgarija: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Bulgarija, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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Inputs

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