Fuel Origin

Events / Import ban

EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)

Dates
2023-02-05 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
European Union

What the sources said

Second phase of the sixth sanctions package of 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014): an eight-month wind-down for refined petroleum products against six months for seaborne crude. Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Recorded as a separate marker because each event on this timeline has a single start date and the two phases have different in-force dates. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2
Source documents (2)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Germany, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

260 published readings, 26 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9088.2974.522023-01-06: 76.41 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 86.96 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 85.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 80.57 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 78.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 80.48 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 84.17 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 85.46 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 81.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 85.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 86.56 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 75.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0676.41-2.440-3.09%-0.68
−142023-01-2086.96+8.110+10.29%+2.27
−72023-01-2785.36+6.510+8.26%+1.82
−32023-02-0280.57+1.720+2.18%+0.48
−12023-02-03same print as T078.850.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T078.850.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0680.48+1.630+2.07%+0.46
+32023-02-0884.17+5.320+6.75%+1.49
+72023-02-1085.46+6.610+8.38%+1.85
+142023-02-1781.97+3.120+3.96%+0.87
+302023-03-0685.86+7.010+8.89%+1.96
+602023-04-0686.56+7.710+9.78%+2.16
+902023-05-0575.85-3.000-3.80%-0.84

One volatility unit for this series is 4.53%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (757 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+906,576,9715,235,3352023-01-01: 6,447,135 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2023-02-01, 5,729,536 tonnes, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-03-01: 6,247,404 tonnes, used for offsets +302023-04-01: 5,365,171 tonnes, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 6,324,819 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-016,447,135+717,599+12.52%+1.39
−142023-01-016,447,135+717,599+12.52%+1.39
−72023-01-016,447,135+717,599+12.52%+1.39
−32023-02-01same print as T05,729,5360.0000.00%0.00
−12023-02-01same print as T05,729,5360.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-01same print as T05,729,5360.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-01same print as T05,729,5360.0000.00%0.00
+32023-02-01same print as T05,729,5360.0000.00%0.00
+72023-02-01same print as T05,729,5360.0000.00%0.00
+142023-02-01same print as T05,729,5360.0000.00%0.00
+302023-03-016,247,404+517,868+9.04%+1.01
+602023-04-015,365,171-364,365-6.36%-0.71
+902023-05-016,324,819+595,283+10.39%+1.16

One volatility unit for this series is 8.98%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0910.9552023-01-02: 0.9682 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.9812 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 1.006 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 1.010 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 1.002 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 1.024 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 1.042 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 1.049 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 1.078 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.9682-0.042-4.18%-0.09
−142023-01-160.9812-0.029-2.88%-0.06
−72023-01-231.006-0.004-0.44%-0.01
−32023-01-30same print as T01.0100.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T01.0100.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T01.0100.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.002-0.008-0.79%-0.02
+32023-02-061.002-0.008-0.79%-0.02
+72023-02-061.002-0.008-0.79%-0.02
+142023-02-131.024+0.013+1.31%+0.03
+302023-03-061.042+0.031+3.10%+0.06
+602023-04-031.049+0.039+3.83%+0.08
+902023-05-011.078+0.068+6.68%+0.14

One volatility unit for this series is 48.54%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.8420.8042023-01-02: 0.8073 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.8101 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.8270 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.8275 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.8158 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.8302 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.8383 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.8212 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.8247 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.8073-0.020-2.44%-0.57
−142023-01-160.8101-0.017-2.10%-0.49
−72023-01-230.8270-0.001-0.06%-0.01
−32023-01-30same print as T00.82750.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.82750.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.82750.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.8158-0.012-1.42%-0.33
+32023-02-060.8158-0.012-1.42%-0.33
+72023-02-060.8158-0.012-1.42%-0.33
+142023-02-130.8302+0.003+0.33%+0.08
+302023-03-060.8383+0.011+1.30%+0.30
+602023-04-030.8212-0.006-0.76%-0.18
+902023-05-010.8247-0.003-0.34%-0.08

One volatility unit for this series is 4.32%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1081.0442023-01-06: 1.050 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 1.083 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 1.087 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 1.099 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 1.094 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 1.078 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 1.074 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 1.069 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 1.063 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142023-03-07: 1.067 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 1.092 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 1.101 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-061.050-0.044-4.00%-7.81
−142023-01-201.083-0.011-1.01%-1.98
−72023-01-271.087-0.007-0.66%-1.29
−32023-02-021.099+0.005+0.47%+0.91
−12023-02-03same print as T01.0940.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T01.0940.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.078-0.016-1.47%-2.88
+32023-02-081.074-0.020-1.85%-3.61
+72023-02-101.069-0.025-2.26%-4.41
+142023-02-171.063-0.031-2.85%-5.57
+302023-03-071.067-0.027-2.49%-4.86
+602023-04-061.092-0.002-0.20%-0.39
+902023-05-051.101+0.008+0.70%+1.38

One volatility unit for this series is 0.51%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (772 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9013.200.002023-01-01: 1.111 to 9.289 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-02-01: 2.390 to 9.708 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-03-01: 7.253 to 11.90 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-04-01: 5.628 to 10.42 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-05-01: 5.592 to 8.985 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-011.111–9.289not publishednot publishednot published
−142023-01-011.111–9.289not publishednot publishednot published
−72023-01-011.111–9.289not publishednot publishednot published
−32023-02-012.390–9.708not publishednot publishednot published
−12023-02-012.390–9.708not publishednot publishednot published
T02023-02-012.390–9.708not publishednot publishednot published
+12023-02-012.390–9.708not publishednot publishednot published
+32023-02-012.390–9.708not publishednot publishednot published
+72023-02-012.390–9.708not publishednot publishednot published
+142023-02-012.390–9.708not publishednot publishednot published
+302023-03-017.253–11.90not publishednot publishednot published
+602023-04-015.628–10.42not publishednot publishednot published
+902023-05-015.592–8.985not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+906.8970.0002023-01-01: 1.264 to 2.783 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-02-01: 0 to 3.546 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-03-01: 2.247 to 3.110 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-04-01: 2.385 to 6.158 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-05-01: 1.322 to 5.920 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-011.264–2.783not publishednot publishednot published
−142023-01-011.264–2.783not publishednot publishednot published
−72023-01-011.264–2.783not publishednot publishednot published
−32023-02-010–3.546not publishednot publishednot published
−12023-02-010–3.546not publishednot publishednot published
T02023-02-010–3.546not publishednot publishednot published
+12023-02-010–3.546not publishednot publishednot published
+32023-02-010–3.546not publishednot publishednot published
+72023-02-010–3.546not publishednot publishednot published
+142023-02-010–3.546not publishednot publishednot published
+302023-03-012.247–3.110not publishednot publishednot published
+602023-04-012.385–6.158not publishednot publishednot published
+902023-05-011.322–5.920not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90106.0102.12023-01-01: 105.6 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2023-02-01, 105.5 days of cover, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-03-01: 103.7 days of cover, used for offsets +302023-04-01: 102.5 days of cover, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 102.6 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-01105.6+0.135+0.13%+0.05
−142023-01-01105.6+0.135+0.13%+0.05
−72023-01-01105.6+0.135+0.13%+0.05
−32023-02-01same print as T0105.50.0000.00%0.00
−12023-02-01same print as T0105.50.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-01same print as T0105.50.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-01same print as T0105.50.0000.00%0.00
+32023-02-01same print as T0105.50.0000.00%0.00
+72023-02-01same print as T0105.50.0000.00%0.00
+142023-02-01same print as T0105.50.0000.00%0.00
+302023-03-01103.7-1.725-1.64%-0.64
+602023-04-01102.5-2.937-2.79%-1.08
+902023-05-01102.6-2.842-2.69%-1.05

One volatility unit for this series is 2.57%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.5050.4172023-01-02: 0.4598 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.4913 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.4969 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.4720 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.4881 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.4951 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.4922 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.4959 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.4258 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.4598-0.012-2.58%-0.32
−142023-01-160.4913+0.019+4.09%+0.51
−72023-01-230.4969+0.025+5.28%+0.65
−32023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+32023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+72023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+142023-02-130.4951+0.023+4.89%+0.61
+302023-03-060.4922+0.020+4.28%+0.53
+602023-04-030.4959+0.024+5.07%+0.63
+902023-05-010.4258-0.046-9.79%-1.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.07%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.5050.4172023-01-02: 0.4598 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.4913 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.4969 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.4720 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.4881 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.4951 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.4922 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.4959 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.4258 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.4598-0.012-2.58%-0.32
−142023-01-160.4913+0.019+4.09%+0.51
−72023-01-230.4969+0.025+5.28%+0.65
−32023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+32023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+72023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+142023-02-130.4951+0.023+4.89%+0.61
+302023-03-060.4922+0.020+4.28%+0.53
+602023-04-030.4959+0.024+5.07%+0.63
+902023-05-010.4258-0.046-9.79%-1.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.07%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9034,293,61831,582,5772023-01-01: 34,031,259 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2023-02-01, 33,356,929 tonnes, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-03-01: 31,962,399 tonnes, used for offsets +302023-04-01: 31,844,936 tonnes, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 32,214,649 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0134,031,259+674,330+2.02%+1.28
−142023-01-0134,031,259+674,330+2.02%+1.28
−72023-01-0134,031,259+674,330+2.02%+1.28
−32023-02-01same print as T033,356,9290.0000.00%0.00
−12023-02-01same print as T033,356,9290.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-01same print as T033,356,9290.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-01same print as T033,356,9290.0000.00%0.00
+32023-02-01same print as T033,356,9290.0000.00%0.00
+72023-02-01same print as T033,356,9290.0000.00%0.00
+142023-02-01same print as T033,356,9290.0000.00%0.00
+302023-03-0131,962,399-1,394,530-4.18%-2.64
+602023-04-0131,844,936-1,511,993-4.53%-2.87
+902023-05-0132,214,649-1,142,280-3.42%-2.16

One volatility unit for this series is 1.58%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.134-0.3032023-01-02: 0.0414 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.0921 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.0061 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: -0.0533 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: -0.0729 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: -0.1044 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: -0.1824 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: -0.2608 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.0414+0.041not publishednot published
−142023-01-160.0921+0.092not publishednot published
−72023-01-230.0061+0.006not publishednot published
−32023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12023-02-06-0.0533-0.053not publishednot published
+32023-02-06-0.0533-0.053not publishednot published
+72023-02-06-0.0533-0.053not publishednot published
+142023-02-13-0.0729-0.073not publishednot published
+302023-03-06-0.1044-0.104not publishednot published
+602023-04-03-0.1824-0.182not publishednot published
+902023-05-01-0.2608-0.261not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.015-0.0852023-01-02: -0.0756 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: -0.0196 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: -0.0146 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: -0.0244 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: -0.0170 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: -0.0150 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.0030 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.0053 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-02-0.0756-0.076not publishednot published
−142023-01-16-0.0196-0.020not publishednot published
−72023-01-23-0.0146-0.015not publishednot published
−32023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12023-02-06-0.0244-0.024not publishednot published
+32023-02-06-0.0244-0.024not publishednot published
+72023-02-06-0.0244-0.024not publishednot published
+142023-02-13-0.0170-0.017not publishednot published
+302023-03-06-0.0150-0.015not publishednot published
+602023-04-030.0030+0.003not publishednot published
+902023-05-010.0053+0.005not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.8811.5932023-01-02: 1.850 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 1.837 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 1.853 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 1.851 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 1.778 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 1.780 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 1.764 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 1.680 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 1.621 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-021.850-0.001-0.05%-0.02
−142023-01-161.837-0.014-0.76%-0.28
−72023-01-231.853+0.002+0.11%+0.04
−32023-01-30same print as T01.8510.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T01.8510.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T01.8510.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.778-0.073-3.94%-1.48
+32023-02-061.778-0.073-3.94%-1.48
+72023-02-061.778-0.073-3.94%-1.48
+142023-02-131.780-0.071-3.84%-1.44
+302023-03-061.764-0.087-4.70%-1.76
+602023-04-031.680-0.171-9.24%-3.46
+902023-05-011.621-0.230-12.43%-4.65

One volatility unit for this series is 2.67%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.8621.7172023-01-02: 1.731 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 1.801 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 1.827 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 1.845 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 1.802 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 1.828 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 1.840 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 1.841 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 1.848 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-021.731-0.114-6.18%-2.57
−142023-01-161.801-0.044-2.38%-0.99
−72023-01-231.827-0.018-0.98%-0.41
−32023-01-30same print as T01.8450.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T01.8450.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T01.8450.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.802-0.043-2.33%-0.97
+32023-02-061.802-0.043-2.33%-0.97
+72023-02-061.802-0.043-2.33%-0.97
+142023-02-131.828-0.017-0.92%-0.38
+302023-03-061.840-0.005-0.27%-0.11
+602023-04-031.841-0.004-0.22%-0.09
+902023-05-011.848+0.003+0.16%+0.07

One volatility unit for this series is 2.41%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1040.7862023-01-02: 1.010 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 1.073 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 1.012 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 1.010 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.9490 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.9507 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.9373 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.8667 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.8171 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-021.010-0.001-0.08%-0.02
−142023-01-161.073+0.063+6.23%+1.53
−72023-01-231.012+0.002+0.17%+0.04
−32023-01-30same print as T01.0100.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T01.0100.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T01.0100.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.9490-0.061-6.07%-1.49
+32023-02-060.9490-0.061-6.07%-1.49
+72023-02-060.9490-0.061-6.07%-1.49
+142023-02-130.9507-0.060-5.90%-1.45
+302023-03-060.9373-0.073-7.24%-1.77
+602023-04-030.8667-0.144-14.22%-3.48
+902023-05-010.8171-0.193-19.13%-4.69

One volatility unit for this series is 4.08%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.8420.7202023-01-02: 0.7317 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.7906 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.8124 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.8275 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.7914 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.8132 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.8233 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.8242 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.8300 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.7317-0.096-11.58%-2.87
−142023-01-160.7906-0.037-4.47%-1.11
−72023-01-230.8124-0.015-1.83%-0.45
−32023-01-30same print as T00.82750.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.82750.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.82750.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.7914-0.036-4.37%-1.08
+32023-02-060.7914-0.036-4.37%-1.08
+72023-02-060.7914-0.036-4.37%-1.08
+142023-02-130.8132-0.014-1.73%-0.43
+302023-03-060.8233-0.004-0.51%-0.13
+602023-04-030.8242-0.003-0.41%-0.10
+902023-05-010.8300+0.003+0.30%+0.08

One volatility unit for this series is 4.04%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.8500.7542023-01-02: 0.8405 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.7637 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.8410 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.8406 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.8290 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.8293 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.8268 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.8133 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.8039 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.8405-0.000-0.02%-0.01
−142023-01-160.7637-0.077-9.15%-3.00
−72023-01-230.8410+0.000+0.04%+0.01
−32023-01-30same print as T00.84060.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.84060.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.84060.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.8290-0.012-1.39%-0.46
+32023-02-060.8290-0.012-1.39%-0.46
+72023-02-060.8290-0.012-1.39%-0.46
+142023-02-130.8293-0.011-1.35%-0.44
+302023-03-060.8268-0.014-1.65%-0.54
+602023-04-030.8133-0.027-3.25%-1.07
+902023-05-010.8039-0.037-4.37%-1.43

One volatility unit for this series is 3.05%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0200.9972023-01-02: 0.9993 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 1.010 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 1.015 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 1.017 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 1.011 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 1.015 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 1.017 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 1.017 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 1.018 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.9993-0.018-1.79%-0.35
−142023-01-161.010-0.007-0.69%-0.14
−72023-01-231.015-0.003-0.28%-0.06
−32023-01-30same print as T01.0170.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T01.0170.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T01.0170.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.011-0.007-0.68%-0.13
+32023-02-061.011-0.007-0.68%-0.13
+72023-02-061.011-0.007-0.68%-0.13
+142023-02-131.015-0.003-0.27%-0.05
+302023-03-061.017-0.001-0.08%-0.02
+602023-04-031.017-0.001-0.06%-0.01
+902023-05-011.018+0.000+0.05%+0.01

One volatility unit for this series is 5.06%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9064.8217.192023-01-06: 52.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 60.21 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 51.77 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 42.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 39.25 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 37.12 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 38.01 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 35.25 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 32.10 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 36.23 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 26.92 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 21.80 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0652.91+13.654+34.78%+3.54
−142023-01-2060.21+20.954+53.38%+5.43
−72023-01-2751.77+12.516+31.88%+3.24
−32023-02-0242.91+3.656+9.31%+0.95
−12023-02-03same print as T039.250.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T039.250.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0637.12-2.134-5.44%-0.55
+32023-02-0838.01-1.246-3.17%-0.32
+72023-02-1035.25-4.006-10.21%-1.04
+142023-02-1732.10-7.152-18.22%-1.85
+302023-03-0636.23-3.020-7.69%-0.78
+602023-04-0626.92-12.330-31.41%-3.19
+902023-05-0521.80-17.454-44.46%-4.52

One volatility unit for this series is 9.83%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9035.3121.572023-01-06: 23.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 27.78 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 27.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 26.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 24.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 25.32 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 25.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 25.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 22.90 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 25.19 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 33.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 27.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0623.63-0.710-2.92%-0.02
−142023-01-2027.78+3.440+14.13%+0.08
−72023-01-2727.70+3.360+13.80%+0.08
−32023-02-0226.70+2.354+9.67%+0.05
−12023-02-03same print as T024.340.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T024.340.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0625.32+0.974+4.00%+0.02
+32023-02-0825.07+0.728+2.99%+0.02
+72023-02-1025.04+0.698+2.87%+0.02
+142023-02-1722.90-1.440-5.92%-0.03
+302023-03-0625.19+0.844+3.47%+0.02
+602023-04-0633.98+9.636+39.58%+0.22
+902023-05-0527.39+3.042+12.50%+0.07

One volatility unit for this series is 182.66%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9085.086.882023-01-06: 57.61 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 77.51 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 73.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 35.06 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 29.38 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 32.50 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 37.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 31.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 24.75 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 37.16 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 19.15 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 14.45 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0657.61+28.228+96.07%+0.54
−142023-01-2077.51+48.128+163.79%+0.93
−72023-01-2773.74+44.352+150.94%+0.85
−32023-02-0235.06+5.672+19.30%+0.11
−12023-02-03same print as T029.380.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T029.380.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0632.50+3.116+10.60%+0.06
+32023-02-0837.04+7.658+26.06%+0.15
+72023-02-1031.97+2.588+8.81%+0.05
+142023-02-1724.75-4.632-15.76%-0.09
+302023-03-0637.16+7.774+26.46%+0.15
+602023-04-0619.15-10.230-34.81%-0.20
+902023-05-0514.45-14.934-50.82%-0.29

One volatility unit for this series is 176.64%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2023-01Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2023-02-05. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only7.253–11.90 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2023-03) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only2.247–3.110 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2023-03) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed103.7 days of cover at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)-1.64% from the level at T0 = -0.64 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed85.86 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)+8.89% from the level at T0 = +1.96 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed31,962,399 tonnes at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)-4.18% from the level at T0 = -2.64 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed0.9373 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)-7.24% from the level at T0 = -1.77 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed1.764 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)-4.70% from the level at T0 = -1.76 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2023-01-29 to 2023-03-07 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Germany, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

2023-02-272023-05-01-10-50510c/L since the anchor week
  • Actual pre-tax change(official prices)
  • What crude alone would have done(calculated, with range)
  • Shaded: not explained by crude(not attributed to any cause)

Changes are measured from the bulletin week of 2023-01-30. Crude response taken from the stored pass-through estimate over the full sample (2005-01-03 to 2026-09-14). The light band is a conservative range, not a 90% interval. The shaded area is not explained by crude: refining margins, freight, retail margins and model error are all inside it, and none is named as its cause.

  • Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Germany's pre-tax petrol price by +0.2 c/L (range -0.7–+1.2); it actually moved -2.3 c/L, leaving -2.5 c/L not explained by crude.
  • Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Germany's pre-tax petrol price by -0.3 c/L (range -5.2–+4.7); it actually moved +0.3 c/L, leaving +0.5 c/L not explained by crude.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's pre-tax petrol price moved -4.4%, which is 1.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.79139
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -0.7831900273994664
    t0_value
    0.82752
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -4.366057617942768
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.08058127919341
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.036129999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -4.366057617942768
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.040471274129209
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.08058127919341
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.79139
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -0.7831900273994664
    t0_value
    0.82752
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -4.366057617942768
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.08058127919341
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.036129999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -4.366057617942768
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.040471274129209
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.08058127919341

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 7fa8bba7b1acdbe31b35b420460989a9d3fc5d3cb49b5657c1b3365506949f0c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's pre-tax petrol price moved -0.5%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.82332
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -0.4163652891160586
    t0_value
    0.82752
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.5075406032482576
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.1256142090399198
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0041999999999999815
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.5075406032482576
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.040471274129209
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.1256142090399198
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.82332
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -0.4163652891160586
    t0_value
    0.82752
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.5075406032482576
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.1256142090399198
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0041999999999999815
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.5075406032482576
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.040471274129209
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.1256142090399198

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 41fd4a4f0de0ac3118e6ce2be350200f19ce10a8b0b9d09f7cfa937de2aa2aac · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's pre-tax petrol price moved +0.3%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.83004
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -0.3391632145384049
    t0_value
    0.82752
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.3045243619489519
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.07536852542395121
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0025199999999999667
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.3045243619489519
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.040471274129209
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.07536852542395121
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.83004
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -0.3391632145384049
    t0_value
    0.82752
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.3045243619489519
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.07536852542395121
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0025199999999999667
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.3045243619489519
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.040471274129209
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.07536852542395121

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 2ddf82041da71ec5663962877a76b7e3d87542d24e5a99d0558cb05271e07d35 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -2.3%, which is 1.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.802
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -0.09594520920747585
    t0_value
    1.845
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -2.3306233062330586
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.9683142671261795
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.04299999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.3306233062330586
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4068872940910193
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.9683142671261795
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.802
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -0.09594520920747585
    t0_value
    1.845
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -2.3306233062330586
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.9683142671261795
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.04299999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.3306233062330586
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4068872940910193
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.9683142671261795

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 2bdd98e9178ef0820e1cb5097c3e7acd5f14e0a7cd6bc87941be3ee08d8120d9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -0.3%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.84
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    0.3194125319185594
    t0_value
    1.845
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.2710027100270945
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.11259468222397213
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.004999999999999893
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.2710027100270945
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4068872940910193
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.11259468222397213
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.84
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    0.3194125319185594
    t0_value
    1.845
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.2710027100270945
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.11259468222397213
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.004999999999999893
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.2710027100270945
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4068872940910193
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.11259468222397213

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fc9afb64ebdbef0a3ae41418a747863c2d8418ffb2b5a75a3d5b3d0d558ffe97 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +0.2%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.848
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    0.40685626689246157
    t0_value
    1.845
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.16260162601626632
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.06755680933438728
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0030000000000001137
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.16260162601626632
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4068872940910193
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.06755680933438728
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.848
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    0.40685626689246157
    t0_value
    1.845
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.16260162601626632
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.06755680933438728
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0030000000000001137
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.16260162601626632
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.4068872940910193
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.06755680933438728

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 6676223b6e6c67e8186e61f1dd05229f7b15c661e11abbffbace307d17500a38 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's pre-tax diesel price moved -6.1%, which is 1.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.94902
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -1.7839624490378057
    t0_value
    1.01036
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -6.071103369096159
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.4871724044212105
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.06133999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.071103369096159
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.082313086934234
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.4871724044212105
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.94902
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -1.7839624490378057
    t0_value
    1.01036
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -6.071103369096159
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.4871724044212105
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.06133999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.071103369096159
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.082313086934234
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.4871724044212105

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 2390afc2b865e576005df2e909032dd6827af79f179ef9ca7b8a42f3389b4dc8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's pre-tax diesel price moved -7.2%, which is 1.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.93725
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -1.9174138156653313
    t0_value
    1.01036
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -7.236034680707856
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.7725330043566128
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0731099999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.236034680707856
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.082313086934234
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.7725330043566128
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.93725
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -1.9174138156653313
    t0_value
    1.01036
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -7.236034680707856
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.7725330043566128
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0731099999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.236034680707856
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.082313086934234
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.7725330043566128

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e74105e8a1670b80034f88804edd3e25f996837f0ea27e65bb62f193c4ea6e80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's pre-tax diesel price moved -19.1%, which is 4.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.81708
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -3.2799329938836674
    t0_value
    1.01036
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -19.1298151154044
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.686023513637621
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1932799999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -19.1298151154044
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.082313086934234
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.686023513637621
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.81708
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -3.2799329938836674
    t0_value
    1.01036
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -19.1298151154044
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.686023513637621
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1932799999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -19.1298151154044
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.082313086934234
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.686023513637621

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3d84aa5968adaf661ea0c32964aa4cd0441d6119f56eda888b765f4e108a1636 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -3.9%, which is 1.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.778
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -1.12025977163936
    t0_value
    1.851
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -3.9438141545110725
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.4765429952631581
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.07299999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.9438141545110725
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6709782018966424
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.4765429952631581
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.778
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -1.12025977163936
    t0_value
    1.851
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -3.9438141545110725
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.4765429952631581
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.07299999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.9438141545110725
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6709782018966424
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.4765429952631581

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3e5d8a20775be8c54085578ba94e2091a1b4920438aca5f0a7f6d69f3c9207b8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -4.7%, which is 1.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.764
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -1.265180440249791
    t0_value
    1.851
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -4.700162074554293
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.7597156244917094
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.08699999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    -4.700162074554293
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6709782018966424
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.7597156244917094
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.764
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -1.265180440249791
    t0_value
    1.851
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -4.700162074554293
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.7597156244917094
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.08699999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    -4.700162074554293
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6709782018966424
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.7597156244917094

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3667773ae59685e7928c37019082f1149df4055d6ae6c26ddc646d036be69744 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Germany's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -12.4%, which is 4.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.621
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -2.7454415553420493
    t0_value
    1.851
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -12.42571582928147
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.652121765897625
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.22999999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -12.42571582928147
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6709782018966424
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.652121765897625
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.621
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    z_score
    -2.7454415553420493
    t0_value
    1.851
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -12.42571582928147
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_DE_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.652121765897625
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.22999999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -12.42571582928147
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.6709782018966424
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.652121765897625

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 36c5b2f5b00fbb666e2d26c18b8e903c8c8a09e04cfd00822f43cfe95a211695 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Germany's pre-tax petrol price by +0.2 c/L (range -0.7–+1.2); it actually moved -2.3 c/L, leaving -2.5 c/L not explained by crude.

    about GermanyCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.024910164401170262
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.022689999999999988
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.0022201644011702742
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.06928868336620317
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -3.1020000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.007371093665455112
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.011811422467795894
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.024910164401170262
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.022689999999999988
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.0022201644011702742
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.06928868336620317
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -3.1020000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.007371093665455112
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.011811422467795894
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint f716f2e86cd2ffc64e66b1a498f3d0f7293c40023637f796e72b3ae68b10a4fc · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Germany's pre-tax petrol price by -0.3 c/L (range -5.2–+4.7); it actually moved +0.3 c/L, leaving +0.5 c/L not explained by crude.

    about GermanyCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.005308631142603593
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.0025199999999999667
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.0027886311426036266
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.11373887030970548
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    5.091999999999999
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.05247434272659085
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.04689708044138448
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.005308631142603593
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.0025199999999999667
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.0027886311426036266
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.11373887030970548
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    5.091999999999999
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.05247434272659085
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.04689708044138448
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 6deeb48937f40f392dce770fe8e81aa4908cb92ef653a677273fccf59ecd9c43 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Germany's pre-tax diesel price by +1.8 c/L (range +0.4–+3.3); it actually moved -9.5 c/L, leaving -11.3 c/L not explained by crude.

    about GermanyCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.11343079002141801
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.09495999999999993
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.018470790021418083
    proxy_volatility_units
    -1.9939207000691863
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -8.939999999999998
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.003936327538432784
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.03300525250440517
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.11343079002141801
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.09495999999999993
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.018470790021418083
    proxy_volatility_units
    -1.9939207000691863
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -8.939999999999998
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.003936327538432784
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.03300525250440517
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint f2488b1fee95887296f04056e20e90c6d233d6068d6684a20e6f8ee830627108 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Germany's pre-tax diesel price by +6.8 c/L (range -0.7–+14.2); it actually moved -19.3 c/L, leaving -26.1 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, narrowed by 27.3 $/bbl.

    about GermanyCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.2607876508242891
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.1932799999999999
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.06750765082428922
    proxy_volatility_units
    -6.086587908824174
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -27.290000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.006976277676739362
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.14199157932531797
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Germany
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DE_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.2607876508242891
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.1932799999999999
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.06750765082428922
    proxy_volatility_units
    -6.086587908824174
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -27.290000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.006976277676739362
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.14199157932531797
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 75608d6d3ab01b2f616b87ff3db2a24dd1d3f78463a85fa606d457a02ca6e2c5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (2%–10%) for Germany in 2023-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about GermanyCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Germany
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    value_max_pct
    9.70758469795809
    value_min_pct
    2.39011192180309
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Germany
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    value_max_pct
    9.70758469795809
    value_min_pct
    2.39011192180309
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint bc5251a579f0652827ed63813fbc97dbad1dbdbf2d18e58cecb461ccf0cce888 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%–4%) for Germany in 2023-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about GermanyCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Germany
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    value_max_pct
    3.54585263951643
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Germany
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    value_max_pct
    3.54585263951643
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 8c7d66cd7142c230bf1e56361de241c1c06446bb598109d49ab213ccfeee1855 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Available evidence does show a physical supply reduction: Germany's reported crude imports in 2023-02 were -18.7% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    country
    Germany
    change_pct
    -18.6598150032906
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    5729536
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    7043918.083333333
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    country
    Germany
    change_pct
    -18.6598150032906
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    5729536
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    7043918.083333333
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint c2237ba2c01a5eb14443b14c6abb6330f6ae2210ca335a63e82fc31c257c4567 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In 2023-02, Germany's oil stocks stood 2.6% above their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 105.5 days of cover (as published).

    about GermanyCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_DE
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    days_of_cover
    105.455
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -1.9815017716505992
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    33356928.999999996
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    4
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    32518647.666666668
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    2.5778480763596208
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    2.5778480763596208
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    2.6
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Germany
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_DE
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    days_of_cover
    105.455
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -1.9815017716505992
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    33356928.999999996
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    32518647.666666668
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    2.5778480763596208
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint 9831adaf74b1fd77852be230d286801c3608a99c1acd79650dc511566bff0250 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Germany around EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (2–10%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about GermanyUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    country
    Germany
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    dependence_band
    limited
    dependence_range
    2–10%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    country
    Germany
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    DE
    country_name
    Germany
    country_slug
    germany
    dependence_band
    limited
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    2–10%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 726673f4adb11c5af680f8f979d1a271e43584ab484c3a9a436e7f86536c977c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved +8.4%, which is 1.8 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.46
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.08812991325524933
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.383005707038683
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-02-10
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.609999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.383005707038683
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.46
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.08812991325524933
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.383005707038683
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-02-10
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.609999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.383005707038683
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 38adc5dea4321bbd49653a24f7c0174373d8aa5326085a6d6dbe425d5975e73b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved +8.9%, which is 2.0 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.86
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.1507166248435324
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.890298034242239
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    7.010000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.890298034242239
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.86
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.1507166248435324
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.890298034242239
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    7.010000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.890298034242239
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0da9031a475f48ba9492ce0f26d02ef4b075756fb5a3ed508e2b5f1ea86c489b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved -3.8%, which is 0.8 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    75.85
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.4155158326532304
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -3.804692454026633
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-05-05
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -3
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.804692454026633
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    75.85
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.4155158326532304
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -3.804692454026633
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-05-05
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -3
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.804692454026633
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 956c15054a5318a99cfc9c833555e8d3f8ac980a1c014dbf655e5357d300335e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 298ab38a71e7fa1e827846158174e16f115ed958766d0a18618b16aa877096e8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 0a3ee8f8627510915169cd9a2eaa4452fa0806bd90c55f8208323cb6b271bea9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint b5b761de3451d820e679168f99a9b0a6cadccd3d87b852d57da6f18bc2de3e6c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint e9796ff5d8838330a75be8298f9f4cd8c4fea863574dbd933141d0a1f568d3c6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Germany: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.