Fuel Origin

Events / Import ban

EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)

Dates
2023-02-05 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
European Union

What the sources said

Second phase of the sixth sanctions package of 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014): an eight-month wind-down for refined petroleum products against six months for seaborne crude. Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Recorded as a separate marker because each event on this timeline has a single start date and the two phases have different in-force dates. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2
Source documents (2)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Hungary, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

265 published readings, 21 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9088.2974.522023-01-06: 76.41 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 86.96 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 85.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 80.57 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 78.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 80.48 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 84.17 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 85.46 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 81.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 85.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 86.56 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 75.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0676.41-2.440-3.09%-0.68
−142023-01-2086.96+8.110+10.29%+2.27
−72023-01-2785.36+6.510+8.26%+1.82
−32023-02-0280.57+1.720+2.18%+0.48
−12023-02-03same print as T078.850.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T078.850.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0680.48+1.630+2.07%+0.46
+32023-02-0884.17+5.320+6.75%+1.49
+72023-02-1085.46+6.610+8.38%+1.85
+142023-02-1781.97+3.120+3.96%+0.87
+302023-03-0685.86+7.010+8.89%+1.96
+602023-04-0686.56+7.710+9.78%+2.16
+902023-05-0575.85-3.000-3.80%-0.84

One volatility unit for this series is 4.53%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (757 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90616,720485,2802023-01-01: 498,000 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2023-02-01, 529,000 tonnes, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-03-01: 586,000 tonnes, used for offsets +302023-04-01: 593,000 tonnes, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 604,000 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-01498,000-31,000-5.86%-0.24
−142023-01-01498,000-31,000-5.86%-0.24
−72023-01-01498,000-31,000-5.86%-0.24
−32023-02-01same print as T0529,0000.0000.00%0.00
−12023-02-01same print as T0529,0000.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-01same print as T0529,0000.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-01same print as T0529,0000.0000.00%0.00
+32023-02-01same print as T0529,0000.0000.00%0.00
+72023-02-01same print as T0529,0000.0000.00%0.00
+142023-02-01same print as T0529,0000.0000.00%0.00
+302023-03-01586,000+57,000+10.78%+0.44
+602023-04-01593,000+64,000+12.10%+0.49
+902023-05-01604,000+75,000+14.18%+0.58

One volatility unit for this series is 24.53%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1331.0862023-01-02: 1.090 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 1.092 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 1.102 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 1.105 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 1.100 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 1.108 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 1.115 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 1.113 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 1.128 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-021.090-0.014-1.30%-1.29
−142023-01-161.092-0.013-1.13%-1.12
−72023-01-231.102-0.003-0.25%-0.24
−32023-01-30same print as T01.1050.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T01.1050.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T01.1050.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.100-0.005-0.45%-0.44
+32023-02-061.100-0.005-0.45%-0.44
+72023-02-061.100-0.005-0.45%-0.44
+142023-02-131.108+0.003+0.29%+0.29
+302023-03-061.115+0.010+0.92%+0.91
+602023-04-031.113+0.008+0.74%+0.74
+902023-05-011.128+0.024+2.15%+2.13

One volatility unit for this series is 1.01%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9790.9292023-01-02: 0.9343 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.9379 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.9442 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.9465 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.9452 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.9505 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.9561 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.9621 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.9746 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.9343-0.012-1.30%-1.79
−142023-01-160.9379-0.009-0.91%-1.25
−72023-01-230.9442-0.002-0.25%-0.34
−32023-01-30same print as T00.94650.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.94650.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.94650.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.9452-0.001-0.14%-0.20
+32023-02-060.9452-0.001-0.14%-0.20
+72023-02-060.9452-0.001-0.14%-0.20
+142023-02-130.9505+0.004+0.42%+0.58
+302023-03-060.9561+0.010+1.01%+1.40
+602023-04-030.9621+0.016+1.64%+2.27
+902023-05-010.9746+0.028+2.97%+4.10

One volatility unit for this series is 0.72%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1081.0442023-01-06: 1.050 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 1.083 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 1.087 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 1.099 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 1.094 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 1.078 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 1.074 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 1.069 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 1.063 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142023-03-07: 1.067 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 1.092 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 1.101 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-061.050-0.044-4.00%-7.81
−142023-01-201.083-0.011-1.01%-1.98
−72023-01-271.087-0.007-0.66%-1.29
−32023-02-021.099+0.005+0.47%+0.91
−12023-02-03same print as T01.0940.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T01.0940.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.078-0.016-1.47%-2.88
+32023-02-081.074-0.020-1.85%-3.61
+72023-02-101.069-0.025-2.26%-4.41
+142023-02-171.063-0.031-2.85%-5.57
+302023-03-071.067-0.027-2.49%-4.86
+602023-04-061.092-0.002-0.20%-0.39
+902023-05-051.101+0.008+0.70%+1.38

One volatility unit for this series is 0.51%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (772 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9013.570.002023-05-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +902023-01-01: 10.59 to 11.04 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-02-01: 10.88 to 11.34 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-03-01: 11.62 to 12.12 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-04-01: 6.469 to 6.745 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0110.59–11.04not publishednot publishednot published
−142023-01-0110.59–11.04not publishednot publishednot published
−72023-01-0110.59–11.04not publishednot publishednot published
−32023-02-0110.88–11.34not publishednot publishednot published
−12023-02-0110.88–11.34not publishednot publishednot published
T02023-02-0110.88–11.34not publishednot publishednot published
+12023-02-0110.88–11.34not publishednot publishednot published
+32023-02-0110.88–11.34not publishednot publishednot published
+72023-02-0110.88–11.34not publishednot publishednot published
+142023-02-0110.88–11.34not publishednot publishednot published
+302023-03-0111.62–12.12not publishednot publishednot published
+602023-04-016.469–6.745not publishednot publishednot published
+902023-05-010not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9015.820.002023-01-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −72023-03-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +302023-02-01: 0 to 5.042 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-04-01: 0 to 14.12 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-05-01: 0 to 5.727 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-010not publishednot publishednot published
−142023-01-010not publishednot publishednot published
−72023-01-010not publishednot publishednot published
−32023-02-010–5.042not publishednot publishednot published
−12023-02-010–5.042not publishednot publishednot published
T02023-02-010–5.042not publishednot publishednot published
+12023-02-010–5.042not publishednot publishednot published
+32023-02-010–5.042not publishednot publishednot published
+72023-02-010–5.042not publishednot publishednot published
+142023-02-010–5.042not publishednot publishednot published
+302023-03-010not publishednot publishednot published
+602023-04-010–14.12not publishednot publishednot published
+902023-05-010–5.727not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9092.4477.562023-01-01: 79.00 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2023-02-01, 84.00 days of cover, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-03-01: 91.00 days of cover, used for offsets +302023-04-01: 90.00 days of cover, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 90.00 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0179.00-5.000-5.95%-1.71
−142023-01-0179.00-5.000-5.95%-1.71
−72023-01-0179.00-5.000-5.95%-1.71
−32023-02-01same print as T084.000.0000.00%0.00
−12023-02-01same print as T084.000.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-01same print as T084.000.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-01same print as T084.000.0000.00%0.00
+32023-02-01same print as T084.000.0000.00%0.00
+72023-02-01same print as T084.000.0000.00%0.00
+142023-02-01same print as T084.000.0000.00%0.00
+302023-03-0191.00+7.000+8.33%+2.39
+602023-04-0190.00+6.000+7.14%+2.05
+902023-05-0190.00+6.000+7.14%+2.05

One volatility unit for this series is 3.48%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.5050.4172023-01-02: 0.4598 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.4913 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.4969 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.4720 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.4881 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.4951 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.4922 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.4959 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.4258 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.4598-0.012-2.58%-0.32
−142023-01-160.4913+0.019+4.09%+0.51
−72023-01-230.4969+0.025+5.28%+0.65
−32023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+32023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+72023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+142023-02-130.4951+0.023+4.89%+0.61
+302023-03-060.4922+0.020+4.28%+0.53
+602023-04-030.4959+0.024+5.07%+0.63
+902023-05-010.4258-0.046-9.79%-1.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.07%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.5050.4172023-01-02: 0.4598 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.4913 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.4969 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.4720 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.4881 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.4951 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.4922 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.4959 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.4258 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.4598-0.012-2.58%-0.32
−142023-01-160.4913+0.019+4.09%+0.51
−72023-01-230.4969+0.025+5.28%+0.65
−32023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.47200.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+32023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+72023-02-060.4881+0.016+3.41%+0.42
+142023-02-130.4951+0.023+4.89%+0.61
+302023-03-060.4922+0.020+4.28%+0.53
+602023-04-030.4959+0.024+5.07%+0.63
+902023-05-010.4258-0.046-9.79%-1.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.07%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+903,539,1203,289,8802023-01-01: 3,314,000 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2023-02-01, 3,390,000 tonnes, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-03-01: 3,460,000 tonnes, used for offsets +302023-04-01: 3,515,000 tonnes, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 3,505,000 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-013,314,000-76,000-2.24%-0.96
−142023-01-013,314,000-76,000-2.24%-0.96
−72023-01-013,314,000-76,000-2.24%-0.96
−32023-02-01same print as T03,390,0000.0000.00%0.00
−12023-02-01same print as T03,390,0000.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-01same print as T03,390,0000.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-01same print as T03,390,0000.0000.00%0.00
+32023-02-01same print as T03,390,0000.0000.00%0.00
+72023-02-01same print as T03,390,0000.0000.00%0.00
+142023-02-01same print as T03,390,0000.0000.00%0.00
+302023-03-013,460,000+70,000+2.06%+0.88
+602023-04-013,515,000+125,000+3.69%+1.58
+902023-05-013,505,000+115,000+3.39%+1.45

One volatility unit for this series is 2.34%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.060-0.2712023-01-02: 0.0277 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: -0.0173 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: -0.0196 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: -0.0498 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: -0.0994 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: -0.1308 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: -0.1653 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: -0.2388 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.0277+0.028not publishednot published
−142023-01-16-0.0173-0.017not publishednot published
−72023-01-23-0.0196-0.020not publishednot published
−32023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12023-02-06-0.0498-0.050not publishednot published
+32023-02-06-0.0498-0.050not publishednot published
+72023-02-06-0.0498-0.050not publishednot published
+142023-02-13-0.0994-0.099not publishednot published
+302023-03-06-0.1308-0.131not publishednot published
+602023-04-03-0.1653-0.165not publishednot published
+902023-05-01-0.2388-0.239not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.027-0.0972023-01-02: 0.0153 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: -0.0140 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: -0.0137 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: -0.0085 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: -0.0115 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: -0.0233 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: -0.0155 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: -0.0850 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.0153+0.015not publishednot published
−142023-01-16-0.0140-0.014not publishednot published
−72023-01-23-0.0137-0.014not publishednot published
−32023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02023-01-30same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12023-02-06-0.0085-0.009not publishednot published
+32023-02-06-0.0085-0.009not publishednot published
+72023-02-06-0.0085-0.009not publishednot published
+142023-02-13-0.0115-0.012not publishednot published
+302023-03-06-0.0233-0.023not publishednot published
+602023-04-03-0.0155-0.016not publishednot published
+902023-05-01-0.0850-0.085not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.8141.4872023-01-02: 1.782 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 1.729 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 1.741 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 1.775 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 1.705 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 1.657 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 1.635 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 1.587 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 1.518 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-021.782+0.007+0.41%+0.13
−142023-01-161.729-0.046-2.58%-0.81
−72023-01-231.741-0.033-1.89%-0.60
−32023-01-30same print as T01.7750.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T01.7750.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T01.7750.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.705-0.070-3.93%-1.24
+32023-02-061.705-0.070-3.93%-1.24
+72023-02-061.705-0.070-3.93%-1.24
+142023-02-131.657-0.117-6.61%-2.09
+302023-03-061.635-0.140-7.88%-2.49
+602023-04-031.587-0.188-10.59%-3.34
+902023-05-011.518-0.256-14.45%-4.56

One volatility unit for this series is 3.17%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.6261.5432023-01-02: 1.599 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 1.568 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 1.579 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 1.605 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 1.592 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 1.601 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 1.602 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 1.618 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 1.551 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-021.599-0.007-0.41%-0.12
−142023-01-161.568-0.037-2.32%-0.69
−72023-01-231.579-0.026-1.61%-0.48
−32023-01-30same print as T01.6050.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T01.6050.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T01.6050.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.592-0.013-0.80%-0.24
+32023-02-061.592-0.013-0.80%-0.24
+72023-02-061.592-0.013-0.80%-0.24
+142023-02-131.601-0.004-0.27%-0.08
+302023-03-061.602-0.003-0.18%-0.05
+602023-04-031.618+0.012+0.78%+0.23
+902023-05-011.551-0.054-3.37%-1.00

One volatility unit for this series is 3.37%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1450.8622023-01-02: 1.118 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 1.075 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 1.082 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 1.105 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 1.050 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 1.008 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.9840 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.9476 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.8896 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-021.118+0.013+1.21%+0.30
−142023-01-161.075-0.030-2.70%-0.67
−72023-01-231.082-0.022-2.02%-0.50
−32023-01-30same print as T01.1050.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T01.1050.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T01.1050.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-061.050-0.055-4.95%-1.23
+32023-02-061.050-0.055-4.95%-1.23
+72023-02-061.050-0.055-4.95%-1.23
+142023-02-131.008-0.096-8.71%-2.16
+302023-03-060.9840-0.121-10.92%-2.71
+602023-04-030.9476-0.157-14.22%-3.53
+902023-05-010.8896-0.215-19.47%-4.83

One volatility unit for this series is 4.03%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9570.8822023-01-02: 0.9496 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.9240 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.9305 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.9465 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.9366 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.9390 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.9328 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.9466 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.8896 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.9496+0.003+0.32%+0.07
−142023-01-160.9240-0.023-2.38%-0.53
−72023-01-230.9305-0.016-1.69%-0.38
−32023-01-30same print as T00.94650.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.94650.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.94650.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.9366-0.010-1.04%-0.23
+32023-02-060.9366-0.010-1.04%-0.23
+72023-02-060.9366-0.010-1.04%-0.23
+142023-02-130.9390-0.008-0.80%-0.18
+302023-03-060.9328-0.014-1.45%-0.32
+602023-04-030.9466+0.000+0.00%+0.00
+902023-05-010.8896-0.057-6.01%-1.34

One volatility unit for this series is 4.49%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6750.6242023-01-02: 0.6640 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.6542 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.6590 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.6701 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.6551 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.6490 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.6509 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.6392 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.6287 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.6640-0.006-0.92%-0.36
−142023-01-160.6542-0.016-2.38%-0.95
−72023-01-230.6590-0.011-1.66%-0.66
−32023-01-30same print as T00.67010.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.67010.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.67010.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.6551-0.015-2.25%-0.89
+32023-02-060.6551-0.015-2.25%-0.89
+72023-02-060.6551-0.015-2.25%-0.89
+142023-02-130.6490-0.021-3.15%-1.25
+302023-03-060.6509-0.019-2.87%-1.14
+602023-04-030.6392-0.031-4.62%-1.83
+902023-05-010.6287-0.041-6.18%-2.45

One volatility unit for this series is 2.52%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6750.6412023-01-02: 0.6491 € per litre, used for offsets −302023-01-16: 0.6442 € per litre, used for offsets −142023-01-23: 0.6489 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2023-01-30, 0.6588 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T02023-02-06: 0.6558 € per litre, used for offsets +1, +3, +72023-02-13: 0.6621 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 0.6696 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-04-03: 0.6713 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-05-01: 0.6615 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-020.6491-0.010-1.48%-0.55
−142023-01-160.6442-0.015-2.22%-0.83
−72023-01-230.6489-0.010-1.50%-0.56
−32023-01-30same print as T00.65880.0000.00%0.00
−12023-01-30same print as T00.65880.0000.00%0.00
T02023-01-30same print as T00.65880.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-060.6558-0.003-0.45%-0.17
+32023-02-060.6558-0.003-0.45%-0.17
+72023-02-060.6558-0.003-0.45%-0.17
+142023-02-130.6621+0.003+0.49%+0.18
+302023-03-060.6696+0.011+1.64%+0.61
+602023-04-030.6713+0.012+1.89%+0.70
+902023-05-010.6615+0.003+0.41%+0.15

One volatility unit for this series is 2.68%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9064.8217.192023-01-06: 52.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 60.21 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 51.77 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 42.91 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 39.25 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 37.12 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 38.01 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 35.25 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 32.10 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 36.23 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 26.92 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 21.80 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0652.91+13.654+34.78%+3.54
−142023-01-2060.21+20.954+53.38%+5.43
−72023-01-2751.77+12.516+31.88%+3.24
−32023-02-0242.91+3.656+9.31%+0.95
−12023-02-03same print as T039.250.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T039.250.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0637.12-2.134-5.44%-0.55
+32023-02-0838.01-1.246-3.17%-0.32
+72023-02-1035.25-4.006-10.21%-1.04
+142023-02-1732.10-7.152-18.22%-1.85
+302023-03-0636.23-3.020-7.69%-0.78
+602023-04-0626.92-12.330-31.41%-3.19
+902023-05-0521.80-17.454-44.46%-4.52

One volatility unit for this series is 9.83%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9035.3121.572023-01-06: 23.63 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 27.78 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 27.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 26.70 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 24.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 25.32 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 25.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 25.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 22.90 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 25.19 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 33.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 27.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0623.63-0.710-2.92%-0.02
−142023-01-2027.78+3.440+14.13%+0.08
−72023-01-2727.70+3.360+13.80%+0.08
−32023-02-0226.70+2.354+9.67%+0.05
−12023-02-03same print as T024.340.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T024.340.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0625.32+0.974+4.00%+0.02
+32023-02-0825.07+0.728+2.99%+0.02
+72023-02-1025.04+0.698+2.87%+0.02
+142023-02-1722.90-1.440-5.92%-0.03
+302023-03-0625.19+0.844+3.47%+0.02
+602023-04-0633.98+9.636+39.58%+0.22
+902023-05-0527.39+3.042+12.50%+0.07

One volatility unit for this series is 182.66%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9085.086.882023-01-06: 57.61 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302023-01-20: 77.51 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142023-01-27: 73.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72023-02-02: 35.06 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2023-02-03, 29.38 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T02023-02-06: 32.50 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12023-02-08: 37.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32023-02-10: 31.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72023-02-17: 24.75 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-03-06: 37.16 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-04-06: 19.15 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-05-05: 14.45 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302023-01-0657.61+28.228+96.07%+0.54
−142023-01-2077.51+48.128+163.79%+0.93
−72023-01-2773.74+44.352+150.94%+0.85
−32023-02-0235.06+5.672+19.30%+0.11
−12023-02-03same print as T029.380.0000.00%0.00
T02023-02-03same print as T029.380.0000.00%0.00
+12023-02-0632.50+3.116+10.60%+0.06
+32023-02-0837.04+7.658+26.06%+0.15
+72023-02-1031.97+2.588+8.81%+0.05
+142023-02-1724.75-4.632-15.76%-0.09
+302023-03-0637.16+7.774+26.46%+0.15
+602023-04-0619.15-10.230-34.81%-0.20
+902023-05-0514.45-14.934-50.82%-0.29

One volatility unit for this series is 176.64%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2023-01Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2023-02-05. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only11.62–12.12 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2023-03) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Observed0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed91.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)+8.33% from the level at T0 = +2.39 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed85.86 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)+8.89% from the level at T0 = +1.96 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed3,460,000 tonnes at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)+2.06% from the level at T0 = +0.88 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed0.9840 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)-10.92% from the level at T0 = -2.71 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed1.635 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)-7.88% from the level at T0 = -2.49 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2023-01-29 to 2023-03-07 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Hungary, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/eu-russia-products-embargo-2023/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'eu-russia-products-embargo-2023' and country 'hungary'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's pre-tax petrol price moved -1.0%, which is 0.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.93663
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.9659199842168333
    t0_value
    0.94652
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -1.044880192705919
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.23287405265684585
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.009890000000000065
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.044880192705919
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.486889719077522
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.23287405265684585
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.93663
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.9659199842168333
    t0_value
    0.94652
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -1.044880192705919
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.23287405265684585
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.009890000000000065
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.044880192705919
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.486889719077522
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.23287405265684585

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 5fab87336d9cbb82b8a19b428943b141412f7dd861dc4ed24d5ec7d03a269e2e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's pre-tax petrol price moved -1.4%, which is 0.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.93283
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.9302890980841281
    t0_value
    0.94652
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -1.4463508430883636
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.32235043284855347
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.01368999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.4463508430883636
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.486889719077522
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.32235043284855347
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.93283
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.9302890980841281
    t0_value
    0.94652
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -1.4463508430883636
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.32235043284855347
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.01368999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.4463508430883636
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.486889719077522
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.32235043284855347

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e98c0c6659993b83e3d9513a02c4015691d19428f1684a9ebb4c8eed656dfdd3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's pre-tax petrol price moved -6.0%, which is 1.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.88964
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.525315947538977
    t0_value
    0.94652
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -6.009381735198415
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.3393201329748547
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.05688000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.009381735198415
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.486889719077522
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.3393201329748547
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.88964
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.525315947538977
    t0_value
    0.94652
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -6.009381735198415
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.3393201329748547
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.05688000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.009381735198415
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.486889719077522
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.3393201329748547

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 82719371d4f0efa4db17a12c4cce67bfc9b8b3f4516fb171493b65d93ca7e3f9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -0.8%, which is 0.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.5924500000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    1.0960091757046158
    t0_value
    1.60533
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.8023272473572276
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.23819294947414024
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.01287999999999978
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.8023272473572276
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.368392091909225
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.23819294947414024
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.5924500000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    1.0960091757046158
    t0_value
    1.60533
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.8023272473572276
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.23819294947414024
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.01287999999999978
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.8023272473572276
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.368392091909225
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.23819294947414024

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a2d899395901abd43fb53463867faed4170e97003c83f462e27c0ea9f884cea8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -0.2%, which is 0.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.6024200000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    1.1541096343504094
    t0_value
    1.60533
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.18127114051314971
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.053815332528703366
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.002909999999999746
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.18127114051314971
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.368392091909225
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.053815332528703366
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.6024200000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    1.1541096343504094
    t0_value
    1.60533
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -0.18127114051314971
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.053815332528703366
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.002909999999999746
    change_pct_from_t0
    -0.18127114051314971
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.368392091909225
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.053815332528703366

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint bc97911afff21ccdd3b40c6288be957895d0813ac445d9f32ab1e2be6d2c55af · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -3.4%, which is 1.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.55116
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.8553905260070417
    t0_value
    1.60533
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.3743840830234175
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.001778887656394
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.05416999999999983
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.3743840830234175
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.368392091909225
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.001778887656394
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.55116
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.8553905260070417
    t0_value
    1.60533
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.3743840830234175
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.001778887656394
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.05416999999999983
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.3743840830234175
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.368392091909225
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.001778887656394

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 45e05eea23486f921f63d2bffd9b9145a1766b4ad8b8d17d218874067667473e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's pre-tax diesel price moved -5.0%, which is 1.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.0499500000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.1506959722264557
    t0_value
    1.10467
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -4.953515529524643
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.229487396432435
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.05471999999999988
    change_pct_from_t0
    -4.953515529524643
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.028927457002084
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.229487396432435
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.0499500000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.1506959722264557
    t0_value
    1.10467
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -4.953515529524643
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.229487396432435
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.05471999999999988
    change_pct_from_t0
    -4.953515529524643
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.028927457002084
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.229487396432435

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 23b6c426e9114f7d0704172eb5c7d80c1a66f0a5efa04ca86e4bfa7d85602164 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's pre-tax diesel price moved -10.9%, which is 2.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.984
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    -0.6527316242436015
    t0_value
    1.10467
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -10.923624249775957
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.711298321043537
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.12067000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    -10.923624249775957
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.028927457002084
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.711298321043537
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.984
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    -0.6527316242436015
    t0_value
    1.10467
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -10.923624249775957
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.711298321043537
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.12067000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    -10.923624249775957
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.028927457002084
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.711298321043537

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8d6c25c9309cd0264f8b2b26d3ed856c2d984c6b27be287064df1c46f3052c5c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's pre-tax diesel price moved -19.5%, which is 4.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.8896200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    -1.8025041269705724
    t0_value
    1.10467
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -19.467352240940727
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.831894455460447
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.21504999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    -19.467352240940727
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.028927457002084
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.831894455460447
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    0.8896200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    -1.8025041269705724
    t0_value
    1.10467
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -19.467352240940727
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.831894455460447
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.21504999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    -19.467352240940727
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.028927457002084
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.831894455460447

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 207204b2d7dd56b64fdfa52e48342974ca45f17e00191356e9ca5846bfe3bdcd · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -3.9%, which is 1.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.7050100000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.44506543780742336
    t0_value
    1.7748
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -3.9322740590488956
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.2412342909563332
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0697899999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.9322740590488956
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1680353078379735
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.2412342909563332
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.7050100000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    0.44506543780742336
    t0_value
    1.7748
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -3.9322740590488956
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.2412342909563332
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.0697899999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.9322740590488956
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1680353078379735
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.2412342909563332

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a656bd206af0402e32f747564e9df8804c31cff91c0412b376bac7c65dbce2f8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -7.9%, which is 2.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.6349
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    -0.12344308602371576
    t0_value
    1.7748
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -7.882578318683791
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.488159869677481
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1398999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.882578318683791
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1680353078379735
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.488159869677481
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.6349
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    -0.12344308602371576
    t0_value
    1.7748
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -7.882578318683791
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.488159869677481
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1398999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.882578318683791
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1680353078379735
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.488159869677481

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f59775324a708ba4b2779d9286303b968d83bc16758caba4f76da752a8eaf2d6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Hungary's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -14.5%, which is 4.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.51834
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    -1.06860573810983
    t0_value
    1.7748
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -14.450078882127558
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.561211438009199
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.2564599999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -14.450078882127558
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1680353078379735
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.561211438009199
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    1.51834
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    z_score
    -1.06860573810983
    t0_value
    1.7748
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -14.450078882127558
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.561211438009199
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.2564599999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -14.450078882127558
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1680353078379735
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.561211438009199

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 32af4b53cea3cbec0d53fd89ab1f01253e308cc7a88d31e2196b99a2a656e3e6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Hungary's pre-tax petrol price by +0.6 c/L (range -0.5–+1.7); it actually moved -0.9 c/L, leaving -1.5 c/L not explained by crude.

    about HungaryCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Hungary
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.015216131788207812
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.009110000000000062
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.00610613178820775
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.06928868336620317
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -3.1020000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.005118304133553303
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.017330567709968603
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Hungary
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.015216131788207812
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.009110000000000062
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.00610613178820775
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.06928868336620317
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -3.1020000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.005118304133553303
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.017330567709968603
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint aa62fb37f63b6d37fe079d046b184c5d6b655915f6fcf857a0bcd14c624035c7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Hungary's pre-tax petrol price by +2.8 c/L (range -2.7–+8.3); it actually moved -5.7 c/L, leaving -8.5 c/L not explained by crude.

    about HungaryCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Hungary
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.08495736579342253
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.05688000000000004
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.028077365793422494
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.11373887030970548
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    5.091999999999999
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.02671084847540281
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.08286558006224803
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Hungary
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.08495736579342253
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.05688000000000004
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.028077365793422494
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.11373887030970548
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    5.091999999999999
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.02671084847540281
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.08286558006224803
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.6569381415496

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint be25ab72476a49c58442cb05cf1dbed9cc98630a263f793409888575e736b884 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Hungary's pre-tax diesel price by +0.5 c/L (range -0.9–+1.8); it actually moved -12.1 c/L, leaving -12.6 c/L not explained by crude.

    about HungaryCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Hungary
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.12553592534218627
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.12103000000000008
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.0045059253421861995
    proxy_volatility_units
    -1.9939207000691863
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -8.939999999999998
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.009352879831430492
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.018364730515802785
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Hungary
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-02-27
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.12553592534218627
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.12103000000000008
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.0045059253421861995
    proxy_volatility_units
    -1.9939207000691863
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -8.939999999999998
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.009352879831430492
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.018364730515802785
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 3cd16ed725b15ad28aae373e1a1f65169383885607011fa16e49c8086acbdc7a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Hungary's pre-tax diesel price by +2.4 c/L (range -4.1–+8.9); it actually moved -21.5 c/L, leaving -23.9 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, narrowed by 27.3 $/bbl.

    about HungaryCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Hungary
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.2387588538635811
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.21504999999999996
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.02370885386358111
    proxy_volatility_units
    -6.086587908824174
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -27.290000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.04138314728500435
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.08880085501216692
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Hungary
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-04-28
    pass_through_k
    1
    proxy_from_date
    2023-01-30
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-05-01
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.2387588538635811
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2023-01-30
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.21504999999999996
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.02370885386358111
    proxy_volatility_units
    -6.086587908824174
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -27.290000000000003
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.04138314728500435
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.08880085501216692
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.833812917722621

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 2936967bcdd1dd19afbd38e7afea4f3905f3c540421d630f19ca460456ff4104 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (11%–11%) for Hungary in 2023-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about HungaryCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Hungary
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    value_max_pct
    11.3421550094518
    value_min_pct
    10.8771266540643
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Hungary
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    value_max_pct
    11.3421550094518
    value_min_pct
    10.8771266540643
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 1b4c5e884d143cee9fda6dba3dabf0c0b3d3a9dd3ea9eb981e553144a06d428f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%–5%) for Hungary in 2023-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about HungaryCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Hungary
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    value_max_pct
    5.04201680672269
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2023-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Hungary
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    value_max_pct
    5.04201680672269
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 444057cfb16db2a7d0939833ab096f4efe4fc2eb3f34c0d7c040eb2999bff166 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Available evidence does not show a physical supply reduction: Hungary's reported crude imports in 2023-02 were +6.9% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    country
    Hungary
    change_pct
    6.922688226376958
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    529000
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    494750
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    country
    Hungary
    change_pct
    6.922688226376958
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    529000
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    494750
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.no_reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint d68243c7db16caf153d6921589b31d82d17443ba00b2eff822d6ac82a6c4640a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In 2023-02, Hungary's oil stocks stood 4.1% above their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 84.0 days of cover (as published).

    about HungaryCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_HU
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    days_of_cover
    84
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    2.2933011466505735
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    3390000
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    4
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    3255500
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    4.131469820304101
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    4.131469820304101
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    4.1
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2023-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Hungary
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_HU
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    days_of_cover
    84
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    2.2933011466505735
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    3390000
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    3255500
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    4.131469820304101
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint b6f3791a5320af1abe16b9726b1c3e5badb39730a7d86a371c734d862b4334bc · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Hungary around EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (11–11%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about HungaryUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    country
    Hungary
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    dependence_band
    moderate
    dependence_range
    11–11%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    country
    Hungary
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    HU
    country_name
    Hungary
    country_slug
    hungary
    dependence_band
    moderate
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    11–11%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint ad151ab48bf4b226746286c6174921540e5bdc2a8333e17f55065d2a5b5a1c98 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved +8.4%, which is 1.8 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.46
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.08812991325524933
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.383005707038683
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-02-10
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.609999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.383005707038683
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.46
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.08812991325524933
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.383005707038683
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-02-10
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    6.609999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.383005707038683
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.8495435613044966

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 38adc5dea4321bbd49653a24f7c0174373d8aa5326085a6d6dbe425d5975e73b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved +8.9%, which is 2.0 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.86
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.1507166248435324
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.890298034242239
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    7.010000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.890298034242239
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    85.86
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    0.1507166248435324
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    8.890298034242239
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    7.010000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.890298034242239
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9614675287056775

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0da9031a475f48ba9492ce0f26d02ef4b075756fb5a3ed508e2b5f1ea86c489b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved -3.8%, which is 0.8 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    75.85
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.4155158326532304
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -3.804692454026633
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-05-05
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -3
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.804692454026633
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    value
    75.85
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.4155158326532304
    t0_value
    78.85
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -3.804692454026633
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-05-05
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -3
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.804692454026633
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.532472704306617
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.8394297555088486

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 956c15054a5318a99cfc9c833555e8d3f8ac980a1c014dbf655e5357d300335e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 298ab38a71e7fa1e827846158174e16f115ed958766d0a18618b16aa877096e8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 0a3ee8f8627510915169cd9a2eaa4452fa0806bd90c55f8208323cb6b271bea9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint b5b761de3451d820e679168f99a9b0a6cadccd3d87b852d57da6f18bc2de3e6c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint e9796ff5d8838330a75be8298f9f4cd8c4fea863574dbd933141d0a1f568d3c6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Hungary: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.