Events / Import ban

EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)

Dates: 2023-02-05 → no end date recorded
Dated to: the day
Status: Ongoing
Scope: European Union

What the sources said

Second phase of the sixth sanctions package of 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014): an eight-month wind-down for refined petroleum products against six months for seaborne crude. Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Recorded as a separate marker because each event on this timeline has a single start date and the two phases have different in-force dates. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official

Retrieved 2026-09-25 14:07 UTCRevision 2

Source documents (2)

CountryGermany France Netherlands Poland Finland Estonia Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czechia Denmark Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden

FuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Latvia, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

273 published readings, 13 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-06	76.41	-2.440	-3.09%	-0.68
−14	2023-01-20	86.96	+8.110	+10.29%	+2.27
−7	2023-01-27	85.36	+6.510	+8.26%	+1.82
−3	2023-02-02	80.57	+1.720	+2.18%	+0.48
−1	2023-02-03same print as T0	78.85	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03same print as T0	78.85	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	80.48	+1.630	+2.07%	+0.46
+3	2023-02-08	84.17	+5.320	+6.75%	+1.49
+7	2023-02-10	85.46	+6.610	+8.38%	+1.85
+14	2023-02-17	81.97	+3.120	+3.96%	+0.87
+30	2023-03-06	85.86	+7.010	+8.89%	+1.96
+60	2023-04-06	86.56	+7.710	+9.78%	+2.16
+90	2023-05-05	75.85	-3.000	-3.80%	-0.84

One volatility unit for this series is 4.53%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (757 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-01	not published	not published
−14	2023-01-01	not published	not published
−7	2023-01-01	not published	not published
−3	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
−1	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
T0	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+1	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+3	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+7	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+14	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+30	2023-03-01	not published	not published
+60	2023-04-01	not published	not published
+90	2023-05-01	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.9421	-0.056	-5.65%	-0.03
−14	2023-01-16	0.9592	-0.039	-3.94%	-0.02
−7	2023-01-23	0.9833	-0.015	-1.53%	-0.01
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.9985	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.9985	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.9985	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.011	+0.012	+1.22%	+0.01
+3	2023-02-06	1.011	+0.012	+1.22%	+0.01
+7	2023-02-06	1.011	+0.012	+1.22%	+0.01
+14	2023-02-13	1.015	+0.016	+1.62%	+0.01
+30	2023-03-06	1.043	+0.045	+4.48%	+0.02
+60	2023-04-03	1.064	+0.066	+6.58%	+0.04
+90	2023-05-01	1.135	+0.137	+13.69%	+0.08

One volatility unit for this series is 181.24%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.8151	-0.010	-1.17%	-1.02
−14	2023-01-16	0.8281	+0.003	+0.41%	+0.36
−7	2023-01-23	0.8304	+0.006	+0.69%	+0.60
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8247	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8247	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8247	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.8314	+0.007	+0.81%	+0.70
+3	2023-02-06	0.8314	+0.007	+0.81%	+0.70
+7	2023-02-06	0.8314	+0.007	+0.81%	+0.70
+14	2023-02-13	0.8342	+0.010	+1.15%	+1.01
+30	2023-03-06	0.8357	+0.011	+1.33%	+1.17
+60	2023-04-03	0.8481	+0.023	+2.84%	+2.48
+90	2023-05-01	0.8330	+0.008	+1.00%	+0.88

One volatility unit for this series is 1.14%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-06	1.050	-0.044	-4.00%	-7.81
−14	2023-01-20	1.083	-0.011	-1.01%	-1.98
−7	2023-01-27	1.087	-0.007	-0.66%	-1.29
−3	2023-02-02	1.099	+0.005	+0.47%	+0.91
−1	2023-02-03same print as T0	1.094	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03same print as T0	1.094	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.078	-0.016	-1.47%	-2.88
+3	2023-02-08	1.074	-0.020	-1.85%	-3.61
+7	2023-02-10	1.069	-0.025	-2.26%	-4.41
+14	2023-02-17	1.063	-0.031	-2.85%	-5.57
+30	2023-03-07	1.067	-0.027	-2.49%	-4.86
+60	2023-04-06	1.092	-0.002	-0.20%	-0.39
+90	2023-05-05	1.101	+0.008	+0.70%	+1.38

One volatility unit for this series is 0.51%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (772 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. The line stops at −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +60, +90 where no figure was published within one period of the offset.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
−14	2023-01-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
−7	2023-01-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
−3	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
−1	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
T0	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+1	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+3	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+7	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+14	2023-02-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+30	2023-03-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+60	2023-04-01	not published	not published	not published	not published
+90	2023-05-01	not published	not published	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedLow

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-01	not published	not published
−14	2023-01-01	not published	not published
−7	2023-01-01	not published	not published
−3	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
−1	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
T0	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+1	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+3	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+7	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+14	2023-02-01same print as T0	not published	not published
+30	2023-03-01	not published	not published
+60	2023-04-01	not published	not published
+90	2023-05-01	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-01	55.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−14	2023-01-01	55.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2023-01-01	55.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2023-02-01same print as T0	55.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01same print as T0	55.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01same print as T0	55.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01same print as T0	55.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01same print as T0	55.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01same print as T0	55.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01same print as T0	55.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	55.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+60	2023-04-01	53.00	-2.000	-3.64%	-0.23
+90	2023-05-01	53.00	-2.000	-3.64%	-0.23

One volatility unit for this series is 15.96%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.012	-2.58%	-0.32
−14	2023-01-16	0.4913	+0.019	+4.09%	+0.51
−7	2023-01-23	0.4969	+0.025	+5.28%	+0.65
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+3	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+7	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+14	2023-02-13	0.4951	+0.023	+4.89%	+0.61
+30	2023-03-06	0.4922	+0.020	+4.28%	+0.53
+60	2023-04-03	0.4959	+0.024	+5.07%	+0.63
+90	2023-05-01	0.4258	-0.046	-9.79%	-1.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.07%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.012	-2.58%	-0.32
−14	2023-01-16	0.4913	+0.019	+4.09%	+0.51
−7	2023-01-23	0.4969	+0.025	+5.28%	+0.65
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+3	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+7	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+14	2023-02-13	0.4951	+0.023	+4.89%	+0.61
+30	2023-03-06	0.4922	+0.020	+4.28%	+0.53
+60	2023-04-03	0.4959	+0.024	+5.07%	+0.63
+90	2023-05-01	0.4258	-0.046	-9.79%	-1.21

One volatility unit for this series is 8.07%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-01	325,706	-451.000	-0.14%	-0.01
−14	2023-01-01	325,706	-451.000	-0.14%	-0.01
−7	2023-01-01	325,706	-451.000	-0.14%	-0.01
−3	2023-02-01same print as T0	326,157	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01same print as T0	326,157	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01same print as T0	326,157	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01same print as T0	326,157	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01same print as T0	326,157	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01same print as T0	326,157	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01same print as T0	326,157	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	331,742	+5,585	+1.71%	+0.16
+60	2023-04-01	333,131	+6,974	+2.14%	+0.20
+90	2023-05-01	351,787	+25,630	+7.86%	+0.72

One volatility unit for this series is 10.85%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	-0.0237	-0.024	not published	not published
−14	2023-01-16	-0.0085	-0.009	not published	not published
−7	2023-01-23	-0.0089	-0.009	not published	not published
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+1	2023-02-06	-0.0452	-0.045	not published	not published
+3	2023-02-06	-0.0452	-0.045	not published	not published
+7	2023-02-06	-0.0452	-0.045	not published	not published
+14	2023-02-13	-0.0782	-0.078	not published	not published
+30	2023-03-06	-0.1620	-0.162	not published	not published
+60	2023-04-03	-0.2053	-0.205	not published	not published
+90	2023-05-01	-0.3425	-0.343	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	-0.0272	-0.027	not published	not published
−14	2023-01-16	-0.0324	-0.032	not published	not published
−7	2023-01-23	-0.0196	-0.020	not published	not published
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0	0.000	not published	not published
+1	2023-02-06	-0.0054	-0.005	not published	not published
+3	2023-02-06	-0.0054	-0.005	not published	not published
+7	2023-02-06	-0.0054	-0.005	not published	not published
+14	2023-02-13	-0.0525	-0.052	not published	not published
+30	2023-03-06	-0.0355	-0.035	not published	not published
+60	2023-04-03	-0.0316	-0.032	not published	not published
+90	2023-05-01	-0.0313	-0.031	not published	not published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	1.658	-0.097	-5.52%	-2.25
−14	2023-01-16	1.697	-0.058	-3.30%	-1.35
−7	2023-01-23	1.726	-0.029	-1.66%	-0.68
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	1.755	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	1.755	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	1.755	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.715	-0.040	-2.28%	-0.93
+3	2023-02-06	1.715	-0.040	-2.28%	-0.93
+7	2023-02-06	1.715	-0.040	-2.28%	-0.93
+14	2023-02-13	1.680	-0.075	-4.27%	-1.74
+30	2023-03-06	1.613	-0.142	-8.08%	-3.30
+60	2023-04-03	1.586	-0.169	-9.62%	-3.92
+90	2023-05-01	1.506	-0.249	-14.19%	-5.79

One volatility unit for this series is 2.45%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	1.611	-0.045	-2.69%	-1.31
−14	2023-01-16	1.621	-0.035	-2.12%	-1.04
−7	2023-01-23	1.639	-0.017	-1.02%	-0.50
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	1.656	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	1.656	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	1.656	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.657	+0.001	+0.09%	+0.04
+3	2023-02-06	1.657	+0.001	+0.09%	+0.04
+7	2023-02-06	1.657	+0.001	+0.09%	+0.04
+14	2023-02-13	1.604	-0.052	-3.14%	-1.53
+30	2023-03-06	1.626	-0.030	-1.79%	-0.87
+60	2023-04-03	1.646	-0.010	-0.60%	-0.29
+90	2023-05-01	1.628	-0.028	-1.68%	-0.82

One volatility unit for this series is 2.05%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.9184	-0.080	-8.02%	-1.98
−14	2023-01-16	0.9506	-0.048	-4.79%	-1.18
−7	2023-01-23	0.9744	-0.024	-2.41%	-0.60
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.9985	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.9985	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.9985	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.9655	-0.033	-3.31%	-0.82
+3	2023-02-06	0.9655	-0.033	-3.31%	-0.82
+7	2023-02-06	0.9655	-0.033	-3.31%	-0.82
+14	2023-02-13	0.9365	-0.062	-6.21%	-1.53
+30	2023-03-06	0.8813	-0.117	-11.74%	-2.90
+60	2023-04-03	0.8589	-0.140	-13.98%	-3.45
+90	2023-05-01	0.7927	-0.206	-20.61%	-5.09

One volatility unit for this series is 4.05%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.7880	-0.037	-4.46%	-1.13
−14	2023-01-16	0.7957	-0.029	-3.52%	-0.89
−7	2023-01-23	0.8108	-0.014	-1.69%	-0.43
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8247	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8247	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8247	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.8260	+0.001	+0.15%	+0.04
+3	2023-02-06	0.8260	+0.001	+0.15%	+0.04
+7	2023-02-06	0.8260	+0.001	+0.15%	+0.04
+14	2023-02-13	0.7818	-0.043	-5.21%	-1.32
+30	2023-03-06	0.8003	-0.024	-2.97%	-0.75
+60	2023-04-03	0.8166	-0.008	-0.99%	-0.25
+90	2023-05-01	0.8017	-0.023	-2.79%	-0.71

One volatility unit for this series is 3.96%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.7397	-0.017	-2.22%	-2.33
−14	2023-01-16	0.7465	-0.010	-1.33%	-1.39
−7	2023-01-23	0.7515	-0.005	-0.67%	-0.70
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.7566	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.7566	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.7566	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.7496	-0.007	-0.92%	-0.96
+3	2023-02-06	0.7496	-0.007	-0.92%	-0.96
+7	2023-02-06	0.7496	-0.007	-0.92%	-0.96
+14	2023-02-13	0.7435	-0.013	-1.72%	-1.80
+30	2023-03-06	0.7319	-0.025	-3.26%	-3.40
+60	2023-04-03	0.7272	-0.029	-3.87%	-4.05
+90	2023-05-01	0.7133	-0.043	-5.71%	-5.97

One volatility unit for this series is 0.96%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-02	0.8234	-0.008	-0.93%	-1.31
−14	2023-01-16	0.8251	-0.006	-0.73%	-1.03
−7	2023-01-23	0.8282	-0.003	-0.35%	-0.49
−3	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8312	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8312	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30same print as T0	0.8312	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.8314	+0.000	+0.03%	+0.04
+3	2023-02-06	0.8314	+0.000	+0.03%	+0.04
+7	2023-02-06	0.8314	+0.000	+0.03%	+0.04
+14	2023-02-13	0.8221	-0.009	-1.09%	-1.53
+30	2023-03-06	0.8260	-0.005	-0.62%	-0.87
+60	2023-04-03	0.8294	-0.002	-0.21%	-0.29
+90	2023-05-01	0.8263	-0.005	-0.58%	-0.82

One volatility unit for this series is 0.71%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (149 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-06	52.91	+13.654	+34.78%	+3.54
−14	2023-01-20	60.21	+20.954	+53.38%	+5.43
−7	2023-01-27	51.77	+12.516	+31.88%	+3.24
−3	2023-02-02	42.91	+3.656	+9.31%	+0.95
−1	2023-02-03same print as T0	39.25	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03same print as T0	39.25	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	37.12	-2.134	-5.44%	-0.55
+3	2023-02-08	38.01	-1.246	-3.17%	-0.32
+7	2023-02-10	35.25	-4.006	-10.21%	-1.04
+14	2023-02-17	32.10	-7.152	-18.22%	-1.85
+30	2023-03-06	36.23	-3.020	-7.69%	-0.78
+60	2023-04-06	26.92	-12.330	-31.41%	-3.19
+90	2023-05-05	21.80	-17.454	-44.46%	-4.52

One volatility unit for this series is 9.83%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-06	23.63	-0.710	-2.92%	-0.02
−14	2023-01-20	27.78	+3.440	+14.13%	+0.08
−7	2023-01-27	27.70	+3.360	+13.80%	+0.08
−3	2023-02-02	26.70	+2.354	+9.67%	+0.05
−1	2023-02-03same print as T0	24.34	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03same print as T0	24.34	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	25.32	+0.974	+4.00%	+0.02
+3	2023-02-08	25.07	+0.728	+2.99%	+0.02
+7	2023-02-10	25.04	+0.698	+2.87%	+0.02
+14	2023-02-17	22.90	-1.440	-5.92%	-0.03
+30	2023-03-06	25.19	+0.844	+3.47%	+0.02
+60	2023-04-06	33.98	+9.636	+39.58%	+0.22
+90	2023-05-05	27.39	+3.042	+12.50%	+0.07

One volatility unit for this series is 182.66%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
Offset	Print used	Value	Δ abs	Δ %	Volatility units
−30	2023-01-06	57.61	+28.228	+96.07%	+0.54
−14	2023-01-20	77.51	+48.128	+163.79%	+0.93
−7	2023-01-27	73.74	+44.352	+150.94%	+0.85
−3	2023-02-02	35.06	+5.672	+19.30%	+0.11
−1	2023-02-03same print as T0	29.38	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03same print as T0	29.38	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	32.50	+3.116	+10.60%	+0.06
+3	2023-02-08	37.04	+7.658	+26.06%	+0.15
+7	2023-02-10	31.97	+2.588	+8.81%	+0.05
+14	2023-02-17	24.75	-4.632	-15.76%	-0.09
+30	2023-03-06	37.16	+7.774	+26.46%	+0.15
+60	2023-04-06	19.15	-10.230	-34.81%	-0.20
+90	2023-05-05	14.45	-14.934	-50.82%	-0.29

One volatility unit for this series is 176.64%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (735 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

T0 is 2023-02-05. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), each with its status and one published figure.
Dimension	Status	Published figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.	Nothing published in the window	not published
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.	Observed	0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.	Observed	55.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)0.00% from the level at T0 = 0.00 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.	Observed	85.86 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)+8.89% from the level at T0 = +1.96 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.	Unavailable	EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.	Unavailable	No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.	Unavailable	Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.	Observed	331,742 tonnes at +30 d (published 2023-03-01)+1.71% from the level at T0 = +0.16 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.	Unavailable	Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.	Observed	0.8813 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)-11.74% from the level at T0 = -2.90 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.	Observed	1.613 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-03-06)-8.08% from the level at T0 = -3.30 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2023-01-29 to 2023-03-07 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Latvia, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/eu-russia-products-embargo-2023/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'eu-russia-products-embargo-2023' and country 'latvia'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's pre-tax petrol price moved +0.2%, which is 0.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.8259700000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.6571242559743923
t0_value
0.8247300000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.15035223648952006
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.037968091103143614
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0012400000000000189
change_pct_from_t0
0.15035223648952006
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.9599630142341145
change_in_volatility_units
0.037968091103143614
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.8259700000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.6571242559743923
t0_value
0.8247300000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.15035223648952006
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.037968091103143614
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0012400000000000189
change_pct_from_t0
0.15035223648952006
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.9599630142341145
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.037968091103143614
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint bc351abbf0474d3d5b0ace1e9680de385a4baf816d58dd4a4bb05b9c862a1278 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's pre-tax petrol price moved -3.0%, which is 0.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.80026
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-1.0353347914814823
t0_value
0.8247300000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-2.967031634595577
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.7492574107208985
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.024470000000000103
change_pct_from_t0
-2.967031634595577
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
3.9599630142341145
change_in_volatility_units
-0.7492574107208985
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.80026
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-1.0353347914814823
t0_value
0.8247300000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-2.967031634595577
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.7492574107208985
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.024470000000000103
change_pct_from_t0
-2.967031634595577
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
3.9599630142341145
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.7492574107208985
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 73cc43dd2aea786c096d9662d3718a7c697914c6deff49f91f0fa94e13e5cac7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's pre-tax petrol price moved -2.8%, which is 0.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.80168
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-1.0144456837249651
t0_value
0.8247300000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-2.7948540734543577
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.7057778225221385
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.023050000000000126
change_pct_from_t0
-2.7948540734543577
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.9599630142341145
change_in_volatility_units
-0.7057778225221385
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.80168
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-1.0144456837249651
t0_value
0.8247300000000001
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-2.7948540734543577
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.7057778225221385
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.023050000000000126
change_pct_from_t0
-2.7948540734543577
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.9599630142341145
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.7057778225221385
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 6d409eddb9003a684d2afaa3bee2600516ad2573bf88f676871a1440d7d37246 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +0.1%, which is 0.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.65738
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.4123449356298911
t0_value
1.6558800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.09058627436769781
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.04422552618582833
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0014999999999998348
change_pct_from_t0
0.09058627436769781
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.048280307329059
change_in_volatility_units
0.04422552618582833
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.65738
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.4123449356298911
t0_value
1.6558800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.09058627436769781
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.04422552618582833
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0014999999999998348
change_pct_from_t0
0.09058627436769781
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.048280307329059
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.04422552618582833
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e48441ce3d82d6675da7f63488e4090a7899d4cbb9530f994d7f31df285fb150 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -1.8%, which is 0.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.62628
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.8065230349564181
t0_value
1.6558800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.7875691475227848
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8727170500671172
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.029600000000000293
change_pct_from_t0
-1.7875691475227848
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.048280307329059
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8727170500671172
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.62628
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.8065230349564181
t0_value
1.6558800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.7875691475227848
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8727170500671172
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.029600000000000293
change_pct_from_t0
-1.7875691475227848
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.048280307329059
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8727170500671172
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 7fe58da52ef4a99fa16e9e6ed34602c2f7ffa3331db43777a1463188b8713190 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -1.7%, which is 0.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.6280000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.7847228313923766
t0_value
1.6558800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.6836968862478032
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8220051133740236
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.027880000000000127
change_pct_from_t0
-1.6836968862478032
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.048280307329059
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8220051133740236
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.6280000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.7847228313923766
t0_value
1.6558800000000002
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.6836968862478032
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8220051133740236
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.027880000000000127
change_pct_from_t0
-1.6836968862478032
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.048280307329059
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8220051133740236
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 81d846b6b2ec5e0de0abb0c401f8f29119c5b338bd9c0aa6a91853898dde6ea5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's pre-tax diesel price moved -3.3%, which is 0.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.96545
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.6700776271753222
t0_value
0.9985
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-3.309964947421134
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8167361474437235
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.033050000000000024
change_pct_from_t0
-3.309964947421134
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.052673507571433
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8167361474437235
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.96545
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.6700776271753222
t0_value
0.9985
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-3.309964947421134
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8167361474437235
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.033050000000000024
change_pct_from_t0
-3.309964947421134
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.052673507571433
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8167361474437235
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 9b5ab60aad8cb975ac10d69b24cb3f870c93bf7a532264ff84a20c8e1970f3de · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's pre-tax diesel price moved -11.7%, which is 2.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.88126
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-1.4718154349175727
t0_value
0.9985
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-11.741612418627941
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.8972510113858414
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.11724000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
-11.741612418627941
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.052673507571433
change_in_volatility_units
-2.8972510113858414
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.88126
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-1.4718154349175727
t0_value
0.9985
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-11.741612418627941
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.8972510113858414
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.11724000000000001
change_pct_from_t0
-11.741612418627941
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.052673507571433
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.8972510113858414
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 92c23552751dd1ff23afeeac71c2afb4c336aaf4560747da91291e6f239fe453 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's pre-tax diesel price moved -20.6%, which is 5.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.7926799999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-2.3153590269095985
t0_value
0.9985
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-20.612919379068614
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-5.086252159360579
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.20582000000000011
change_pct_from_t0
-20.612919379068614
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.052673507571433
change_in_volatility_units
-5.086252159360579
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.7926799999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-2.3153590269095985
t0_value
0.9985
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-20.612919379068614
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-5.086252159360579
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.20582000000000011
change_pct_from_t0
-20.612919379068614
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.052673507571433
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-5.086252159360579
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d5aacc61b6fe232ad93e49906054555dbf7de4f82ac77e1b48deef7c8d28ce00 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -2.3%, which is 0.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.71505
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.49881007886891754
t0_value
1.75505
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-2.2791373465143465
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.9296425269687189
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.040000000000000036
change_pct_from_t0
-2.2791373465143465
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.451627674506156
change_in_volatility_units
-0.9296425269687189
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.71505
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-0.49881007886891754
t0_value
1.75505
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-2.2791373465143465
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.9296425269687189
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.040000000000000036
change_pct_from_t0
-2.2791373465143465
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
2.451627674506156
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.9296425269687189
Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 35b742bf7f6986d8f7df52df2d2e982ead19aea8994869e3161724a34244ca9a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -8.1%, which is 3.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.61318
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-1.3228173664534044
t0_value
1.75505
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-8.083530383749748
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.297209632526299
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.14186999999999994
change_pct_from_t0
-8.083530383749748
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.451627674506156
change_in_volatility_units
-3.297209632526299
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.61318
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-1.3228173664534044
t0_value
1.75505
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-8.083530383749748
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-3.297209632526299
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.14186999999999994
change_pct_from_t0
-8.083530383749748
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
2.451627674506156
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-3.297209632526299
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 7b0af31de8dd8e6870e21ae8704e654e926211431af74528ccb6383e90059805 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), Latvia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -14.2%, which is 5.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.506
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-2.189776246234551
t0_value
1.75505
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-14.190478903734936
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-5.78818678353898
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.24905
change_pct_from_t0
-14.190478903734936
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.451627674506156
change_in_volatility_units
-5.78818678353898
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.506
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
z_score
-2.189776246234551
t0_value
1.75505
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-14.190478903734936
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-5.78818678353898
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.24905
change_pct_from_t0
-14.190478903734936
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.451627674506156
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-5.78818678353898
Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 57069236b7dc8c7d365dc6d6eb6e3c945e10d06c2bb0eb85b0b3a156eea71b23 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax petrol price by +1.2 c/L (range -0.6–+2.9); it actually moved -4.2 c/L, leaving -5.4 c/L not explained by crude.
about LatviaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Latvia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
0
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.053599385635731744
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.041870000000000074
expected_eur_per_litre
0.01172938563573167
proxy_volatility_units
-0.06928868336620317
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-3.1020000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.00570377220665641
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.02916254347812064
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Latvia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
0
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.053599385635731744
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.041870000000000074
expected_eur_per_litre
0.01172938563573167
proxy_volatility_units
-0.06928868336620317
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-3.1020000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.00570377220665641
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.02916254347812064
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 7ce774d1a2b1c6d535ceb69b18ee0538379f7145c2eb43344c3bdeb5b469f711 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax petrol price by +0.8 c/L (range -9.3–+11.0); it actually moved -2.3 c/L, leaving -3.1 c/L not explained by crude.
about LatviaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Latvia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
0
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.03132786749330274
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.023050000000000126
expected_eur_per_litre
0.008277867493302615
proxy_volatility_units
0.11373887030970548
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.091999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.09314869091639189
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.10970442590299889
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Latvia
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
0
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.03132786749330274
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.023050000000000126
expected_eur_per_litre
0.008277867493302615
proxy_volatility_units
0.11373887030970548
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.091999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.09314869091639189
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.10970442590299889
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 0a65c2756460adf622a0fe7949ee5aea6f0b5c674eae3831a5ce2fae8a1d1f60 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax diesel price by +4.2 c/L (range +1.0–+7.4); it actually moved -11.4 c/L, leaving -15.6 c/L not explained by crude.
about LatviaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Latvia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.15560805475684972
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.11402999999999996
expected_eur_per_litre
0.041578054756849746
proxy_volatility_units
-1.9939207000691863
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-8.939999999999998
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.009522513608526437
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.07363359590517453
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Latvia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.15560805475684972
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.11402999999999996
expected_eur_per_litre
0.041578054756849746
proxy_volatility_units
-1.9939207000691863
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-8.939999999999998
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.009522513608526437
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.07363359590517453
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint aac682490ed5b9246362f2c03d16235335b32e3a55287a35630d8087d8a5a184 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax diesel price by +13.7 c/L (range -3.2–+30.5); it actually moved -20.6 c/L, leaving -34.3 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, narrowed by 27.3 $/bbl.
about LatviaCalculatedMedium
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Latvia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.342537158114398
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.20582000000000011
expected_eur_per_litre
0.13671715811439786
proxy_volatility_units
-6.086587908824174
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-27.290000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.03165411476735138
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3050884309961506
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Thresholds
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Latvia
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.342537158114398
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.20582000000000011
expected_eur_per_litre
0.13671715811439786
proxy_volatility_units
-6.086587908824174
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-27.290000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.03165411476735138
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3050884309961506
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 52a9920a1ab526e9fa27a6d7b13a73475659b671b9cfdb76db4d311793f64030 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude for Latvia in 2023-02 is UNKNOWN: the source reports zero imports for this period, so there is no volume to take a share of - this is a reported zero, not missing data.
about LatviaUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Latvia
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
value_max_pct
null
value_min_pct
null
exposure_status
UNKNOWN
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Latvia
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
value_max_pct
null
value_min_pct
null
exposure_status
UNKNOWN
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.dependence.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 9f3f084f4d852aebca0789d2fa09a4325dccaa5907713022647ce8d92ec8ecbf · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%) for Latvia in 2023-02.
about LatviaCalculatedLow
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2023-02-01
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2023-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint 34ae68ff13539cf032cd8b31c2d25d555d62974cc2d4097b6003e229a222a6e0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Whether Latvia's crude supply was physically reduced in 2023-02 is UNKNOWN: only 12 month(s) of comparison data, fewer than the 6 required.
about LatviaUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
country
Latvia
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
0
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
baseline_mean_tonnes
0
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
country
Latvia
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
partner_role
ORIGIN
value_tonnes
0
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.supply.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint a7f2b7859716ee947e395876c7c2dc5180462e89f05af0c0ed38d0b2212f9ca8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In 2023-02, Latvia's oil stocks stood 20.4% below their trailing 12-month mean, with 55.0 days of cover (as published).
about LatviaCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_LV
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
days_of_cover
55
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
0.13846843472333945
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
326157
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
409793.0833333333
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-20.409344797384534
trailing_12m_observations
12
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
-20.409344797384534
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
-20.4
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Latvia
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_LV
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
days_of_cover
55
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
0.13846843472333945
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
326157
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
409793.0833333333
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-20.409344797384534
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Template event.inventory_level.below v1.1 · Fingerprint 2592f2ec222bba372e0ac17df7f58c1e6c3667aaaa5495c3a6145bed38ca3bd0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Summary of what can be checked here
Only part of the chain can be checked for Latvia around EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.
about LatviaUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
country
Latvia
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
dependence_band
null
dependence_range
null
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.unknown
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
country
Latvia
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
LV
country_name
Latvia
country_slug
latvia
dependence_band
null
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
null
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.unknown
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint cec9561b9b1ea7b5af91812cd759feb4fd428027260426597b56c00949e0cf92 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 7 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved +8.4%, which is 1.8 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.46
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.08812991325524933
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.383005707038683
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-02-10
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.609999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.383005707038683
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.46
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.08812991325524933
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.383005707038683
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-02-10
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.609999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.383005707038683
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 38adc5dea4321bbd49653a24f7c0174373d8aa5326085a6d6dbe425d5975e73b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 30 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved +8.9%, which is 2.0 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.86
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.1507166248435324
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.890298034242239
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
7.010000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
8.890298034242239
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.86
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.1507166248435324
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.890298034242239
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
7.010000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
8.890298034242239
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0da9031a475f48ba9492ce0f26d02ef4b075756fb5a3ed508e2b5f1ea86c489b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
In the 90 days after EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023), the Brent crude benchmark moved -3.8%, which is 0.8 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
75.85
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.4155158326532304
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-3.804692454026633
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-05-05
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-3
change_pct_from_t0
-3.804692454026633
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
Thresholds
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
75.85
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.4155158326532304
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-3.804692454026633
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-05-05
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-3
change_pct_from_t0
-3.804692454026633
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 956c15054a5318a99cfc9c833555e8d3f8ac980a1c014dbf655e5357d300335e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 298ab38a71e7fa1e827846158174e16f115ed958766d0a18618b16aa877096e8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 0a3ee8f8627510915169cd9a2eaa4452fa0806bd90c55f8208323cb6b271bea9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint b5b761de3451d820e679168f99a9b0a6cadccd3d87b852d57da6f18bc2de3e6c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
Why this sentence
Variables
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Thresholds
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint e9796ff5d8838330a75be8298f9f4cd8c4fea863574dbd933141d0a1f568d3c6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Latvia: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Not available: licence-blocked

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmark

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

wholesale / rack price

wholesale / rack price

Is EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023) really the reason?

What the pump price did around this date

Actual vs crude-only: Latvia, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

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