Avvenimenti / Projbizzjoni fuq l-importazzjoni
Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)
- Dati
- 05/02/2023 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
- Preċiżjoni tad-data
- jum
- Status
- Għadu għaddej
- Ambitu
- L-Unjoni Ewropea
X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)
Second phase of the sixth sanctions package of 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014): an eight-month wind-down for refined petroleum products against six months for seaborne crude. Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Recorded as a separate marker because each event on this timeline has a single start date and the two phases have different in-force dates. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.
L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Uffiċjali
Minn fejn ġejja d-data
UffiċjaliUffiċjali- Identifikatur tas-sett tad-data
- Fuel Origin: kronoloġija tal-avvenimenti, magħżula u mħejjija minna (data/reference/events.csv)events.csvreference_events_v1
- Perjodu
- mhux irreġistrat
- Miġbur
- 03/10/2026 19:34 UTC
- Tip
- Uffiċjali
- Trasformazzjoni
- xejn – maħżun eżatt kif ippubblikat
- Liċenzja
- Għal kull ringiela: kull ringiela tista’ tiġi traċċata lura għad-dokument tal-aġenzija jew leġiżlattiv imsemmi f’source_urls.
- Rekord ta’ avveniment jiddeskrivi x’ġara, mhux x’kien fl-oriġini tiegħu (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §5).
- Punti tat-tieqa b’valur osservat: 6,944 minn 10,179; il-bqija huma toqob irreġistrati, mhux żeri.
- Kanali mingħajr sors li jista’ jintuża: NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE, NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE, NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK, NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES, NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES.
Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.
It-tieqa tal-avveniment
Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.
Il-Finlandja, Diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi). Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 14; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 6.
Qari ppubblikat: 182; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 0; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 78. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.
Europe Brent spot FOB
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-06 | 76.41 | -2.440 | -3.09% | -0.68 |
| −14 | 2023-01-20 | 86.96 | +8.110 | +10.29% | +2.27 |
| −7 | 2023-01-27 | 85.36 | +6.510 | +8.26% | +1.82 |
| −3 | 2023-02-02 | 80.57 | +1.720 | +2.18% | +0.48 |
| −1 | 2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 78.85 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 78.85 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-06 | 80.48 | +1.630 | +2.07% | +0.46 |
| +3 | 2023-02-08 | 84.17 | +5.320 | +6.75% | +1.49 |
| +7 | 2023-02-10 | 85.46 | +6.610 | +8.38% | +1.85 |
| +14 | 2023-02-17 | 81.97 | +3.120 | +3.96% | +0.87 |
| +30 | 2023-03-06 | 85.86 | +7.010 | +8.89% | +1.96 |
| +60 | 2023-04-06 | 86.56 | +7.710 | +9.78% | +2.16 |
| +90 | 2023-05-05 | 75.85 | -3.000 | -3.80% | -0.84 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.53%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 757). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
reported crude oil imports, all origins
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-01 | 857,000 | +40,000 | +4.90% | +0.12 |
| −14 | 2023-01-01 | 857,000 | +40,000 | +4.90% | +0.12 |
| −7 | 2023-01-01 | 857,000 | +40,000 | +4.90% | +0.12 |
| −3 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 817,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 817,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 817,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 817,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 817,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 817,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +14 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 817,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +30 | 2023-03-01 | 882,000 | +65,000 | +7.96% | +0.19 |
| +60 | 2023-04-01 | 661,000 | -156,000 | -19.09% | -0.46 |
| +90 | 2023-05-01 | 939,000 | +122,000 | +14.93% | +0.36 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 41.71%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 34). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-06 | 1.050 | -0.044 | -4.00% | -7.81 |
| −14 | 2023-01-20 | 1.083 | -0.011 | -1.01% | -1.98 |
| −7 | 2023-01-27 | 1.087 | -0.007 | -0.66% | -1.29 |
| −3 | 2023-02-02 | 1.099 | +0.005 | +0.47% | +0.91 |
| −1 | 2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.094 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.094 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-06 | 1.078 | -0.016 | -1.47% | -2.88 |
| +3 | 2023-02-08 | 1.074 | -0.020 | -1.85% | -3.61 |
| +7 | 2023-02-10 | 1.069 | -0.025 | -2.26% | -4.41 |
| +14 | 2023-02-17 | 1.063 | -0.031 | -2.85% | -5.57 |
| +30 | 2023-03-07 | 1.067 | -0.027 | -2.49% | -4.86 |
| +60 | 2023-04-06 | 1.092 | -0.002 | -0.20% | -0.39 |
| +90 | 2023-05-05 | 1.101 | +0.008 | +0.70% | +1.38 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.51%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 772). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −14 | 2023-01-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −7 | 2023-01-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −3 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −1 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| T0 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +1 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +3 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +7 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +14 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +30 | 2023-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +60 | 2023-04-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +90 | 2023-05-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.
esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −14 | 2023-01-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −7 | 2023-01-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −3 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −1 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| T0 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +1 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +3 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +7 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +14 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +30 | 2023-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +60 | 2023-04-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +90 | 2023-05-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.
esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-01 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −14 | 2023-01-01 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −7 | 2023-01-01 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −3 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +14 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +30 | 2023-03-01 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +60 | 2023-04-01 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +90 | 2023-05-01 | 202.0 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 5.79%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-02 | 0.4598 | -0.012 | -2.58% | -0.32 |
| −14 | 2023-01-16 | 0.4913 | +0.019 | +4.09% | +0.51 |
| −7 | 2023-01-23 | 0.4969 | +0.025 | +5.28% | +0.65 |
| −3 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.4720 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.4720 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.4720 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-06 | 0.4881 | +0.016 | +3.41% | +0.42 |
| +3 | 2023-02-06 | 0.4881 | +0.016 | +3.41% | +0.42 |
| +7 | 2023-02-06 | 0.4881 | +0.016 | +3.41% | +0.42 |
| +14 | 2023-02-13 | 0.4951 | +0.023 | +4.89% | +0.61 |
| +30 | 2023-03-06 | 0.4922 | +0.020 | +4.28% | +0.53 |
| +60 | 2023-04-03 | 0.4959 | +0.024 | +5.07% | +0.63 |
| +90 | 2023-05-01 | 0.4258 | -0.046 | -9.79% | -1.21 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.07%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-01 | 5,091,000 | +133,000 | +2.68% | +0.75 |
| −14 | 2023-01-01 | 5,091,000 | +133,000 | +2.68% | +0.75 |
| −7 | 2023-01-01 | 5,091,000 | +133,000 | +2.68% | +0.75 |
| −3 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 4,958,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 4,958,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 4,958,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 4,958,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 4,958,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 4,958,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +14 | 2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 4,958,000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +30 | 2023-03-01 | 4,768,000 | -190,000 | -3.83% | -1.07 |
| +60 | 2023-04-01 | 4,688,000 | -270,000 | -5.45% | -1.52 |
| +90 | 2023-05-01 | 4,801,000 | -157,000 | -3.17% | -0.88 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.59%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-02 | 2.081 | -0.012 | -0.57% | -0.25 |
| −14 | 2023-01-16 | 2.061 | -0.032 | -1.53% | -0.66 |
| −7 | 2023-01-23 | 2.105 | +0.012 | +0.57% | +0.25 |
| −3 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 2.093 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 2.093 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 2.093 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-06 | 2.111 | +0.018 | +0.86% | +0.37 |
| +3 | 2023-02-06 | 2.111 | +0.018 | +0.86% | +0.37 |
| +7 | 2023-02-06 | 2.111 | +0.018 | +0.86% | +0.37 |
| +14 | 2023-02-13 | 2.018 | -0.075 | -3.58% | -1.55 |
| +30 | 2023-03-06 | 1.968 | -0.125 | -5.97% | -2.58 |
| +60 | 2023-04-03 | 1.937 | -0.156 | -7.45% | -3.22 |
| +90 | 2023-05-01 | 1.872 | -0.221 | -10.56% | -4.56 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.31%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-02 | 1.168 | -0.010 | -0.82% | -0.23 |
| −14 | 2023-01-16 | 1.152 | -0.026 | -2.19% | -0.61 |
| −7 | 2023-01-23 | 1.187 | +0.010 | +0.82% | +0.23 |
| −3 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.177 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.177 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.177 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-06 | 1.192 | +0.015 | +1.23% | +0.34 |
| +3 | 2023-02-06 | 1.192 | +0.015 | +1.23% | +0.34 |
| +7 | 2023-02-06 | 1.192 | +0.015 | +1.23% | +0.34 |
| +14 | 2023-02-13 | 1.117 | -0.060 | -5.14% | -1.42 |
| +30 | 2023-03-06 | 1.077 | -0.101 | -8.56% | -2.37 |
| +60 | 2023-04-03 | 1.052 | -0.126 | -10.68% | -2.95 |
| +90 | 2023-05-01 | 0.9992 | -0.178 | -15.14% | -4.19 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.62%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-02 | 0.9133 | -0.002 | -0.25% | -0.21 |
| −14 | 2023-01-16 | 0.9094 | -0.006 | -0.68% | -0.55 |
| −7 | 2023-01-23 | 0.9179 | +0.002 | +0.25% | +0.21 |
| −3 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.9156 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.9156 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.9156 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-06 | 0.9191 | +0.003 | +0.38% | +0.31 |
| +3 | 2023-02-06 | 0.9191 | +0.003 | +0.38% | +0.31 |
| +7 | 2023-02-06 | 0.9191 | +0.003 | +0.38% | +0.31 |
| +14 | 2023-02-13 | 0.9011 | -0.015 | -1.59% | -1.29 |
| +30 | 2023-03-06 | 0.8914 | -0.024 | -2.64% | -2.16 |
| +60 | 2023-04-03 | 0.8854 | -0.030 | -3.30% | -2.69 |
| +90 | 2023-05-01 | 0.8728 | -0.043 | -4.67% | -3.81 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.23%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-06 | 52.91 | +13.654 | +34.78% | +3.54 |
| −14 | 2023-01-20 | 60.21 | +20.954 | +53.38% | +5.43 |
| −7 | 2023-01-27 | 51.77 | +12.516 | +31.88% | +3.24 |
| −3 | 2023-02-02 | 42.91 | +3.656 | +9.31% | +0.95 |
| −1 | 2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 39.25 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 39.25 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-06 | 37.12 | -2.134 | -5.44% | -0.55 |
| +3 | 2023-02-08 | 38.01 | -1.246 | -3.17% | -0.32 |
| +7 | 2023-02-10 | 35.25 | -4.006 | -10.21% | -1.04 |
| +14 | 2023-02-17 | 32.10 | -7.152 | -18.22% | -1.85 |
| +30 | 2023-03-06 | 36.23 | -3.020 | -7.69% | -0.78 |
| +60 | 2023-04-06 | 26.92 | -12.330 | -31.41% | -3.19 |
| +90 | 2023-05-05 | 21.80 | -17.454 | -44.46% | -4.52 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 9.83%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 735). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-06 | 23.63 | -0.710 | -2.92% | -0.02 |
| −14 | 2023-01-20 | 27.78 | +3.440 | +14.13% | +0.08 |
| −7 | 2023-01-27 | 27.70 | +3.360 | +13.80% | +0.08 |
| −3 | 2023-02-02 | 26.70 | +2.354 | +9.67% | +0.05 |
| −1 | 2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 24.34 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 24.34 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-06 | 25.32 | +0.974 | +4.00% | +0.02 |
| +3 | 2023-02-08 | 25.07 | +0.728 | +2.99% | +0.02 |
| +7 | 2023-02-10 | 25.04 | +0.698 | +2.87% | +0.02 |
| +14 | 2023-02-17 | 22.90 | -1.440 | -5.92% | -0.03 |
| +30 | 2023-03-06 | 25.19 | +0.844 | +3.47% | +0.02 |
| +60 | 2023-04-06 | 33.98 | +9.636 | +39.58% | +0.22 |
| +90 | 2023-05-05 | 27.39 | +3.042 | +12.50% | +0.07 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 182.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 735). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2023-01-06 | 57.61 | +28.228 | +96.07% | +0.54 |
| −14 | 2023-01-20 | 77.51 | +48.128 | +163.79% | +0.93 |
| −7 | 2023-01-27 | 73.74 | +44.352 | +150.94% | +0.85 |
| −3 | 2023-02-02 | 35.06 | +5.672 | +19.30% | +0.11 |
| −1 | 2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 29.38 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 29.38 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2023-02-06 | 32.50 | +3.116 | +10.60% | +0.06 |
| +3 | 2023-02-08 | 37.04 | +7.658 | +26.06% | +0.15 |
| +7 | 2023-02-10 | 31.97 | +2.588 | +8.81% | +0.05 |
| +14 | 2023-02-17 | 24.75 | -4.632 | -15.76% | -0.09 |
| +30 | 2023-03-06 | 37.16 | +7.774 | +26.46% | +0.15 |
| +60 | 2023-04-06 | 19.15 | -10.230 | -34.81% | -0.20 |
| +90 | 2023-05-05 | 14.45 | -14.934 | -50.82% | -0.29 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 176.64%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 735). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja
Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.
nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa
In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.
prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati
Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.
marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa
M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.
prezz bl-ingrossa / rack
Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.
Mhux disponibbli: raġuni mhux ikklassifikata
L-API ta kodiċi ta’ raġuni li din il-paġna ma tagħrafx. Is-sentenza tiegħu tintwera hawn taħt kif inhi.
crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since
La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant: m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa.
Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.
not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed
La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant: m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa.
Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.
T0: 05/02/2023. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.
L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?
Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.
Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.
Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.
| Dimensjoni | Status | Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx |
|---|---|---|
| Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz. | Osservat | 0 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-01) |
| Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz. | Osservat | 0 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-01) |
| Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz. | Osservat | 202.0 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-01)0.00% mil-livell ta’ T0 = 0.00 unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
| Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej. | Osservat | 85.86 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)+8.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +1.96 unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
| Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa. | Mhux disponibbli | Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom. |
| Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott. | Mhux disponibbli | M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid. |
| NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar. | Mhux disponibbli | In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED). |
| StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista. | Osservat | 4,768,000 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-01)-3.83% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -1.07 unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
| Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol. | Mhux disponibbli | Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). |
| Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant. | Osservat | 1.077 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)-8.56% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -2.37 unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
| Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq. | Osservat | 1.968 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)-5.97% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -2.58 unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data
Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.
Qsim tal-prezz (29/01/2023 – 07/03/2023) →
It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.
Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Finlandja, diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)
X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra.
Il-Finlandja, diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi): dak li kien jagħmel iż-żejt mhux maħdum waħdu huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF.
La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant: m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut (bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa).
Ma tinġibed l-ebda linja: perkors mistenni mhux magħruf mhuwiex linja ċatta fuq iż-żero, u ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa.
- X’kienu jagħmlu l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom lill-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Finlandja) fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”) huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5): m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).
X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza
Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+3.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.7 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 0.87033
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.5290187225695557
- t0_value
- 0.84453
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 3.0549536428546107
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-02-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.6781900577946569
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.025800000000000045
- change_pct_from_t0
- 3.0549536428546107
- observation_gap_days
- 6
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.504568605427113
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.6781900577946569
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 0.87033
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.5290187225695557
- t0_value
- 0.84453
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 3.0549536428546107
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-02-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.6781900577946569
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.025800000000000045
- change_pct_from_t0
- 3.0549536428546107
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 6
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.504568605427113
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.6781900577946569
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàa1df548f9dfeb0f8f82ded59f12cc111d8a5daece2397cc595b68c2281e959eb· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’-0.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 0.83969
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.055452084245321505
- t0_value
- 0.84453
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- -0.5730998306750448
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -0.12722635192736836
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.0048399999999999554
- change_pct_from_t0
- -0.5730998306750448
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.504568605427113
- change_in_volatility_units
- -0.12722635192736836
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 0.83969
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.055452084245321505
- t0_value
- 0.84453
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- -0.5730998306750448
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -0.12722635192736836
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.0048399999999999554
- change_pct_from_t0
- -0.5730998306750448
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.504568605427113
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- -0.12722635192736836
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità04a86ed2576e1f141139e5ea7b4e5bc97fb74d7c0350ed32fc63946e9dd236a4· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+2.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 0.86549
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.45421250424418613
- t0_value
- 0.84453
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 2.481853812179553
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-05-01
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.5509637058672857
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.02095999999999998
- change_pct_from_t0
- 2.481853812179553
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.504568605427113
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.5509637058672857
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 0.86549
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.45421250424418613
- t0_value
- 0.84453
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 2.481853812179553
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-05-01
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.5509637058672857
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.02095999999999998
- change_pct_from_t0
- 2.481853812179553
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.504568605427113
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.5509637058672857
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità384d478d7696e552a57e06d90f2fc796776570fa4afa662049f48562d447a1e3· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+1.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.8 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.975
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.5290376682490907
- t0_value
- 1.943
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 1.6469377251672686
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-02-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.7778914859945953
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.03200000000000003
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.6469377251672686
- observation_gap_days
- 6
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.117181836823332
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.7778914859945953
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.975
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.5290376682490907
- t0_value
- 1.943
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 1.6469377251672686
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-02-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.7778914859945953
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.03200000000000003
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.6469377251672686
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 6
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.117181836823332
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.7778914859945953
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàb2b4aa66e8cd13cbe45174be65c6ef53b95a08b7a2da2922046fa3072625fea2· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’-0.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.937
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.055396614476344856
- t0_value
- 1.943
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- -0.30880082346886284
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -0.1458546536239866
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.006000000000000005
- change_pct_from_t0
- -0.30880082346886284
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.117181836823332
- change_in_volatility_units
- -0.1458546536239866
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.937
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.055396614476344856
- t0_value
- 1.943
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- -0.30880082346886284
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -0.1458546536239866
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.006000000000000005
- change_pct_from_t0
- -0.30880082346886284
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.117181836823332
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- -0.1458546536239866
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità2871e9cdf708db125318569d468f920d6ae55b44f0db8725e0e6ea1768b05a2e· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+1.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.969
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.4542522387060256
- t0_value
- 1.943
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 1.3381369016984057
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-05-01
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.6320368323706087
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.026000000000000023
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.3381369016984057
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.117181836823332
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.6320368323706087
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.969
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.4542522387060256
- t0_value
- 1.943
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 1.3381369016984057
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-05-01
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.6320368323706087
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.026000000000000023
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.3381369016984057
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.117181836823332
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.6320368323706087
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità16e298647810dd1115295f6977ab5c490af3a221541b51c5812f85753750cc63· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+1.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.1919000000000002
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.18272102583963898
- t0_value
- 1.17738
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 1.233246700300675
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-02-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.3410367769734294
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.014520000000000088
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.233246700300675
- observation_gap_days
- 6
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6161692332576756
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.3410367769734294
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.1919000000000002
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.18272102583963898
- t0_value
- 1.17738
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 1.233246700300675
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-02-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.3410367769734294
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.014520000000000088
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.233246700300675
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 6
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6161692332576756
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.3410367769734294
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàec879868bbf7e90a07b71e5b58d1bb1a77d7a997533d0ebabe7c934cde4b274b· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’-8.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.0765799999999999
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- -1.1843673413636695
- t0_value
- 1.17738
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- -8.561382051674075
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -2.36752803849322
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.10080000000000022
- change_pct_from_t0
- -8.561382051674075
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6161692332576756
- change_in_volatility_units
- -2.36752803849322
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.0765799999999999
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- -1.1843673413636695
- t0_value
- 1.17738
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- -8.561382051674075
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -2.36752803849322
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.10080000000000022
- change_pct_from_t0
- -8.561382051674075
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6161692332576756
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- -2.36752803849322
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità06c86b8b8df3792b09fe69137aa87ab9b90b72ff97898482ad0bcf75d0df93f1· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’-15.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 0.9991599999999999
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- -2.1021611445971047
- t0_value
- 1.17738
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- -15.136999099695949
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-05-01
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -4.185921101391479
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.17822000000000016
- change_pct_from_t0
- -15.136999099695949
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6161692332576756
- change_in_volatility_units
- -4.185921101391479
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 0.9991599999999999
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- -2.1021611445971047
- t0_value
- 1.17738
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- -15.136999099695949
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-05-01
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -4.185921101391479
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.17822000000000016
- change_pct_from_t0
- -15.136999099695949
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6161692332576756
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- -4.185921101391479
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità858f7a8dce94d8965f0661c8213fa008561855185772fe9c3285a04a107c5c91· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+0.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 2.111
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.18270284074141005
- t0_value
- 2.093
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 0.860009555661741
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-02-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.3714960369580692
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.018000000000000238
- change_pct_from_t0
- 0.860009555661741
- observation_gap_days
- 6
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.3149898521227303
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.3714960369580692
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 2.111
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- 0.18270284074141005
- t0_value
- 2.093
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 0.860009555661741
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-02-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.3714960369580692
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.018000000000000238
- change_pct_from_t0
- 0.860009555661741
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 6
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.3149898521227303
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.3714960369580692
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàa6b22f6c979d6b4e28a40623e0297d90fdf6bcaa6e84940e315376169b2667be· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’-6.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.968
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- -1.184381787364346
- t0_value
- 2.093
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- -5.972288580984233
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -2.579833589986557
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.125
- change_pct_from_t0
- -5.972288580984233
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.3149898521227303
- change_in_volatility_units
- -2.579833589986557
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.968
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- -1.184381787364346
- t0_value
- 2.093
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- -5.972288580984233
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -2.579833589986557
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.125
- change_pct_from_t0
- -5.972288580984233
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.3149898521227303
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- -2.579833589986557
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàde4f0650a1597a6651727d708831ee862dd0859ad412558481c35e9a26405b63· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’-10.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.872
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- -2.1021448943444314
- t0_value
- 2.093
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- -10.559006211180119
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-05-01
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -4.5611457870962315
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.22099999999999986
- change_pct_from_t0
- -10.559006211180119
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.3149898521227303
- change_in_volatility_units
- -4.5611457870962315
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 1.872
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- z_score
- -2.1021448943444314
- t0_value
- 2.093
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- -10.559006211180119
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2023-05-01
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -4.5611457870962315
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -0.22099999999999986
- change_pct_from_t0
- -10.559006211180119
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.3149898521227303
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- -4.5611457870962315
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità42485a330fdd986097672c4fccf1e55af3bb80e9696e5b4bbfeb1e3260061c53· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) b’+4.2 c/l (firxa +1.6–+6.7); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+0.5 c/l, u jibqa’ -3.7 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatMedjaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Finland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2023-02-27
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2023-01-30
- observation_date
- 2023-02-27
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.03680132736021602
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2023-01-30
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.004830000000000001
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.04163132736021602
- proxy_volatility_units
- -0.06928868336620317
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- -3.1020000000000003
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.01631557286913088
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.06694708185130338
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 182.6569381415496
Limiti
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Finland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2023-02-27
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2023-01-30
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2023-02-27
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.03680132736021602
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2023-01-30
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.004830000000000001
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.04163132736021602
- proxy_volatility_units
- -0.06928868336620317
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- -3.1020000000000003
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.01631557286913088
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.06694708185130338
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 182.6569381415496
Mudell
event.crude_only.computedv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàc836802974bb298936839373a5ff66c7ddc54063b3fc9722e61314579a00b454· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) b’+18.2 c/l (firxa +3.5–+32.9); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+2.1 c/l, u jibqa’ -16.1 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatMedjaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Finland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2023-04-28
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2023-01-30
- observation_date
- 2023-05-01
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.16082156748061271
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2023-01-30
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.02095999999999998
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.1817815674806127
- proxy_volatility_units
- 0.11373887030970548
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 5.091999999999999
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.03467583595368939
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.3288872990075351
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 182.6569381415496
Limiti
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Finland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2023-04-28
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2023-01-30
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2023-05-01
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.16082156748061271
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2023-01-30
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.02095999999999998
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.1817815674806127
- proxy_volatility_units
- 0.11373887030970548
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 5.091999999999999
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.03467583595368939
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.3288872990075351
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 182.6569381415496
Mudell
event.crude_only.computedv1.2 · Marka tal-identità72cb42279ef99cc5da1f426ed43f7e9f24c0ce7e4a1a1a9c4c962b8e98a6611d· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCX’kienu jagħmlu l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom lill-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Finlandja) fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”) huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5): m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- UNKNOWN
- country
- Finland
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- reason_code
- NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- proxy_product
- null
- gap_eur_per_litre
- null
- actual_eur_per_litre
- null
- expected_eur_per_litre
- null
- proxy_volatility_units
- null
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- null
- pass_through_window_label
- null
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- null
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- null
Limiti
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- UNKNOWN
- country
- Finland
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- proxy_product
- null
- statement_topic
- event
- gap_eur_per_litre
- null
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- null
- expected_eur_per_litre
- null
- proxy_volatility_units
- null
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- null
- pass_through_window_label
- null
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- null
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- null
Mudell
event.crude_only.unknownv1.2 · Marka tal-identità08ed66b76d10f2e6f51b37f1c985c0e817f1c2e7c2539781614dcfdf79cd3588· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCIl-Finlandja, Frar 2023: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (0%).
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatBaxxaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2023-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- commodity
- crude
- dimension
- DIRECT_CRUDE
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- value_max_pct
- 0
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- value_point_pct
- 0
- observation_date
- 2023-02-01
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
- band_applied_to
- upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
- dependence_limited_max_pct
- 10
- dependence_moderate_max_pct
- 33
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2023-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- commodity
- crude
- dimension
- DIRECT_CRUDE
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- value_max_pct
- 0
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- statement_topic
- hormuz
- value_point_pct
- 0
- observation_date
- 2023-02-01
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.dependence.pointv1.2 · Marka tal-identità7988fa5ff665e557015d71239d8feda596aa38671c5f1ef8a0ac7af742f93c93· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCIl-Finlandja, Frar 2023: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%).
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatBaxxaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2023-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- commodity
- refined product
- dimension
- DIRECT_PRODUCT
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- value_max_pct
- 0
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- value_point_pct
- 0
- observation_date
- 2023-02-01
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
- band_applied_to
- upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
- dependence_limited_max_pct
- 10
- dependence_moderate_max_pct
- 33
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2023-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- commodity
- refined product
- dimension
- DIRECT_PRODUCT
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- value_max_pct
- 0
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- statement_topic
- hormuz
- value_point_pct
- 0
- observation_date
- 2023-02-01
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.dependence.pointv1.2 · Marka tal-identità38e359284fcc36ec61b0d0793b087a6c8685132239c4f07ee145d79a627ca1ee· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCL-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (il-Finlandja, Frar 2023) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): +5.2%.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2023-02
- country
- Finland
- change_pct
- 5.227004400558124
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- value_tonnes
- 817000
- baseline_months
- 12
- observation_date
- 2023-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
- crude_imports_rule
- crude_imports_total-1.1
- baseline_mean_tonnes
- 776416.6666666666
- baseline_window_months
- 12
- value_not_published_code
- null
- baseline_not_published_months
- 0
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
- min_baseline_months
- 6
- baseline_months_used
- 12
- supply_reduction_pct
- -10
- supply_baseline_months
- 12
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2023-02
- country
- Finland
- change_pct
- 5.227004400558124
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- value_tonnes
- 817000
- baseline_months
- 12
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2023-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
- crude_imports_rule
- crude_imports_total-1.1
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- baseline_mean_tonnes
- 776416.6666666666
- baseline_window_months
- 12
- value_not_published_code
- null
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- baseline_not_published_months
- 0
Mudell
event.supply.no_reductionv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàc57081fc286d747799ea23e25a29c7cda4e0e8c97e23176e1c1f27d92d6d1494· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFrar 2023: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (il-Finlandja) kienu 5.9% aktar baxxi meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12), jiem ta’ kopertura: 202.0 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2023-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- direction
- below
- siec_code
- O4000
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- holder_type
- STK_CL
- series_code
- INVENTORY_FI
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- days_of_cover
- 202
- metric_status
- COMPUTED
- mom_change_pct
- -2.6124533490473385
- observation_date
- 2023-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
- total_stock_tonnes
- 4958000
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
- 5267916.666666667
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
- -5.883097366131456
- trailing_12m_observations
- 12
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
- band_applied_to
- the rounded figure printed in the sentence
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- trailing_window_months
- 12
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
- -5.883097366131456
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
- -5.9
- inventory_material_deviation_pct
- 5
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2023-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Finland
- direction
- below
- siec_code
- O4000
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- holder_type
- STK_CL
- series_code
- INVENTORY_FI
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- days_of_cover
- 202
- metric_status
- COMPUTED
- mom_change_pct
- -2.6124533490473385
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2023-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
- total_stock_tonnes
- 4958000
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
- 5267916.666666667
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
- -5.883097366131456
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- trailing_12m_observations
- 12
Mudell
event.inventory_level.belowv1.2 · Marka tal-identità696de7ab0f685f2fc9aa8264a2d3a020e5914d43c0af0e0ba0cf1f3e30afe7f7· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCSommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (il-Finlandja) madwar l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (0–0%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: il-FinlandjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- country
- Finland
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- dependence_band
- limited
- dependence_range
- 0–0%
- channels_available
- ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
- supply_template_id
- event.supply.no_reduction
- channels_unavailable
- ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
- channels_total
- 8
- channels_available
- 4
- verdict_partial_min_channels
- 3
- verdict_assessable_min_channels
- 8
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- country
- Finland
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- FI
- country_name
- Finland
- country_slug
- finland
- dependence_band
- limited
- statement_topic
- event
- dependence_range
- 0–0%
- channels_available
- ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
- supply_template_id
- event.supply.no_reduction
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- channels_unavailable
- ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.verdict.partialv1.2 · Marka tal-identità294a1a0aa1301b1dc535f29920da1b8eca61558e4f2e9c1fac98774acacd85cc· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+8.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.8 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 85.46
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 0.08812991325524933
- t0_value
- 78.85
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 8.383005707038683
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2023-02-10
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 1.8495435613044966
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 6.609999999999999
- change_pct_from_t0
- 8.383005707038683
- observation_gap_days
- 2
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.532472704306617
- change_in_volatility_units
- 1.8495435613044966
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 85.46
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 0.08812991325524933
- t0_value
- 78.85
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 8.383005707038683
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2023-02-10
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 1.8495435613044966
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 6.609999999999999
- change_pct_from_t0
- 8.383005707038683
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 2
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.532472704306617
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 1.8495435613044966
Mudell
event.benchmark_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità38adc5dea4321bbd49653a24f7c0174373d8aa5326085a6d6dbe425d5975e73b· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+8.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 85.86
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 0.1507166248435324
- t0_value
- 78.85
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 8.890298034242239
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2023-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 1.9614675287056775
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 7.010000000000005
- change_pct_from_t0
- 8.890298034242239
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.532472704306617
- change_in_volatility_units
- 1.9614675287056775
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 85.86
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 0.1507166248435324
- t0_value
- 78.85
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 8.890298034242239
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2023-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 1.9614675287056775
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 7.010000000000005
- change_pct_from_t0
- 8.890298034242239
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.532472704306617
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 1.9614675287056775
Mudell
event.benchmark_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità0da9031a475f48ba9492ce0f26d02ef4b075756fb5a3ed508e2b5f1ea86c489b· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’-3.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.8 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjaliGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 75.85
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- -1.4155158326532304
- t0_value
- 78.85
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- -3.804692454026633
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2023-05-05
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -0.8394297555088486
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -3
- change_pct_from_t0
- -3.804692454026633
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.532472704306617
- change_in_volatility_units
- -0.8394297555088486
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- value
- 75.85
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- -1.4155158326532304
- t0_value
- 78.85
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- -3.804692454026633
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2023-05-05
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- -0.8394297555088486
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- -3
- change_pct_from_t0
- -3.804692454026633
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.532472704306617
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- -0.8394297555088486
Mudell
event.benchmark_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità956c15054a5318a99cfc9c833555e8d3f8ac980a1c014dbf655e5357d300335e· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCNoli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["freight rates"]
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["freight rates"]
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Marka tal-identità298ab38a71e7fa1e827846158174e16f115ed958766d0a18618b16aa877096e8· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCPrezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refined-product benchmark"]
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refined-product benchmark"]
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Marka tal-identità0a3ee8f8627510915169cd9a2eaa4452fa0806bd90c55f8208323cb6b271bea9· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCPrezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["wholesale prices"]
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["wholesale prices"]
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Marka tal-identitàb5b761de3451d820e679168f99a9b0a6cadccd3d87b852d57da6f18bc2de3e6c· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCMarġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refining margin"]
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- reason_code
- NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refining margin"]
- event_name
- EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
- event_slug
- eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
- event_type
- EMBARGO
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Marka tal-identitàe9796ff5d8838330a75be8298f9f4cd8c4fea863574dbd933141d0a1f568d3c6· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
X’ma jurix dan
- Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
- Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
- Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
- Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.
Il-Finlandja: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →
Kif jinqraw it-tikketti
- UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
- IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
- IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
- Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
- Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
- Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
- Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.