Avvenimenti / Projbizzjoni fuq l-importazzjoni

Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)

Dati: 05/02/2023 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Unjoni Ewropea

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Second phase of the sixth sanctions package of 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014): an eight-month wind-down for refined petroleum products against six months for seaborne crude. Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Recorded as a separate marker because each event on this timeline has a single start date and the two phases have different in-force dates. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Uffiċjali

Miġbur 25/09/2026 14:07 UTCReviżjoni 2

Dokumenti tas-sors (2)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

L-Ungerija, Diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi). Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 16; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 4.

Qari ppubblikat: 187; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 21; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 52. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	76.41	-2.440	-3.09%	-0.68
−14	2023-01-20	86.96	+8.110	+10.29%	+2.27
−7	2023-01-27	85.36	+6.510	+8.26%	+1.82
−3	2023-02-02	80.57	+1.720	+2.18%	+0.48
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	78.85	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	78.85	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	80.48	+1.630	+2.07%	+0.46
+3	2023-02-08	84.17	+5.320	+6.75%	+1.49
+7	2023-02-10	85.46	+6.610	+8.38%	+1.85
+14	2023-02-17	81.97	+3.120	+3.96%	+0.87
+30	2023-03-06	85.86	+7.010	+8.89%	+1.96
+60	2023-04-06	86.56	+7.710	+9.78%	+2.16
+90	2023-05-05	75.85	-3.000	-3.80%	-0.84

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.53%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 757). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	498,000	-31,000	-5.86%	-0.24
−14	2023-01-01	498,000	-31,000	-5.86%	-0.24
−7	2023-01-01	498,000	-31,000	-5.86%	-0.24
−3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	529,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	529,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	529,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	529,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	529,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	529,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	529,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	586,000	+57,000	+10.78%	+0.44
+60	2023-04-01	593,000	+64,000	+12.10%	+0.49
+90	2023-05-01	604,000	+75,000	+14.18%	+0.58

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 24.53%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	1.090	-0.015	-1.32%	-1.30
−14	2023-01-16	1.092	-0.013	-1.14%	-1.12
−7	2023-01-23	1.102	-0.003	-0.25%	-0.25
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.105	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.105	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.105	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.100	-0.005	-0.43%	-0.43
+3	2023-02-06	1.100	-0.005	-0.43%	-0.43
+7	2023-02-06	1.100	-0.005	-0.43%	-0.43
+14	2023-02-13	1.108	+0.003	+0.30%	+0.30
+30	2023-03-06	1.115	+0.010	+0.94%	+0.92
+60	2023-04-03	1.114	+0.009	+0.82%	+0.81
+90	2023-05-01	1.129	+0.025	+2.24%	+2.20

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.02%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	1.050	-0.044	-4.00%	-7.81
−14	2023-01-20	1.083	-0.011	-1.01%	-1.98
−7	2023-01-27	1.087	-0.007	-0.66%	-1.29
−3	2023-02-02	1.099	+0.005	+0.47%	+0.91
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.094	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.094	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.078	-0.016	-1.47%	-2.88
+3	2023-02-08	1.074	-0.020	-1.85%	-3.61
+7	2023-02-10	1.069	-0.025	-2.26%	-4.41
+14	2023-02-17	1.063	-0.031	-2.85%	-5.57
+30	2023-03-07	1.067	-0.027	-2.49%	-4.86
+60	2023-04-06	1.092	-0.002	-0.20%	-0.39
+90	2023-05-05	1.101	+0.008	+0.70%	+1.38

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.51%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 772). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	10.59–11.04	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2023-01-01	10.59–11.04	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2023-01-01	10.59–11.04	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2023-02-01	10.88–11.34	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2023-02-01	10.88–11.34	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2023-02-01	10.88–11.34	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2023-02-01	10.88–11.34	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2023-02-01	10.88–11.34	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2023-02-01	10.88–11.34	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2023-02-01	10.88–11.34	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-03-01	11.62–12.12	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-04-01	6.469–6.745	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-05-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2023-01-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2023-01-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2023-02-01	0–5.042	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2023-02-01	0–5.042	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2023-02-01	0–5.042	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2023-02-01	0–5.042	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2023-02-01	0–5.042	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2023-02-01	0–5.042	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2023-02-01	0–5.042	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-03-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-04-01	0–14.12	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-05-01	0–5.727	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	79.00	-5.000	-5.95%	-1.71
−14	2023-01-01	79.00	-5.000	-5.95%	-1.71
−7	2023-01-01	79.00	-5.000	-5.95%	-1.71
−3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	84.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	84.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	84.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	84.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	84.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	84.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	84.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	91.00	+7.000	+8.33%	+2.39
+60	2023-04-01	90.00	+6.000	+7.14%	+2.05
+90	2023-05-01	90.00	+6.000	+7.14%	+2.05

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.48%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.4598	-0.012	-2.58%	-0.32
−14	2023-01-16	0.4913	+0.019	+4.09%	+0.51
−7	2023-01-23	0.4969	+0.025	+5.28%	+0.65
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4720	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+3	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+7	2023-02-06	0.4881	+0.016	+3.41%	+0.42
+14	2023-02-13	0.4951	+0.023	+4.89%	+0.61
+30	2023-03-06	0.4922	+0.020	+4.28%	+0.53
+60	2023-04-03	0.4959	+0.024	+5.07%	+0.63
+90	2023-05-01	0.4258	-0.046	-9.79%	-1.21

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.07%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-01	3,314,000	-76,000	-2.24%	-0.96
−14	2023-01-01	3,314,000	-76,000	-2.24%	-0.96
−7	2023-01-01	3,314,000	-76,000	-2.24%	-0.96
−3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,390,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,390,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,390,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,390,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,390,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,390,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2023-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,390,000	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2023-03-01	3,460,000	+70,000	+2.06%	+0.88
+60	2023-04-01	3,515,000	+125,000	+3.69%	+1.58
+90	2023-05-01	3,505,000	+115,000	+3.39%	+1.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.34%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.0280	+0.028	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2023-01-16	-0.0173	-0.017	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2023-01-23	-0.0195	-0.020	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2023-02-06	-0.0499	-0.050	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2023-02-06	-0.0499	-0.050	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2023-02-06	-0.0499	-0.050	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2023-02-13	-0.0996	-0.100	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2023-03-06	-0.1311	-0.131	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2023-04-03	-0.1661	-0.166	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2023-05-01	-0.2398	-0.240	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	1.782	+0.007	+0.41%	+0.13
−14	2023-01-16	1.729	-0.046	-2.58%	-0.81
−7	2023-01-23	1.741	-0.033	-1.89%	-0.60
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.775	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.775	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.775	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.705	-0.070	-3.93%	-1.24
+3	2023-02-06	1.705	-0.070	-3.93%	-1.24
+7	2023-02-06	1.705	-0.070	-3.93%	-1.24
+14	2023-02-13	1.657	-0.117	-6.61%	-2.09
+30	2023-03-06	1.635	-0.140	-7.88%	-2.49
+60	2023-04-03	1.587	-0.188	-10.59%	-3.34
+90	2023-05-01	1.518	-0.256	-14.45%	-4.56

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.17%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	1.118	+0.013	+1.21%	+0.30
−14	2023-01-16	1.075	-0.030	-2.70%	-0.67
−7	2023-01-23	1.082	-0.022	-2.02%	-0.50
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.105	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.105	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.105	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	1.050	-0.055	-4.95%	-1.23
+3	2023-02-06	1.050	-0.055	-4.95%	-1.23
+7	2023-02-06	1.050	-0.055	-4.95%	-1.23
+14	2023-02-13	1.008	-0.096	-8.71%	-2.16
+30	2023-03-06	0.9840	-0.121	-10.92%	-2.71
+60	2023-04-03	0.9476	-0.157	-14.22%	-3.53
+90	2023-05-01	0.8896	-0.215	-19.47%	-4.83

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.03%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-02	0.6640	-0.006	-0.92%	-0.36
−14	2023-01-16	0.6542	-0.016	-2.38%	-0.95
−7	2023-01-23	0.6590	-0.011	-1.66%	-0.66
−3	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6701	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6701	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-01-30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.6701	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	0.6551	-0.015	-2.25%	-0.89
+3	2023-02-06	0.6551	-0.015	-2.25%	-0.89
+7	2023-02-06	0.6551	-0.015	-2.25%	-0.89
+14	2023-02-13	0.6490	-0.021	-3.15%	-1.25
+30	2023-03-06	0.6509	-0.019	-2.87%	-1.14
+60	2023-04-03	0.6392	-0.031	-4.62%	-1.83
+90	2023-05-01	0.6287	-0.041	-6.18%	-2.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.52%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 149). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	52.91	+13.654	+34.78%	+3.54
−14	2023-01-20	60.21	+20.954	+53.38%	+5.43
−7	2023-01-27	51.77	+12.516	+31.88%	+3.24
−3	2023-02-02	42.91	+3.656	+9.31%	+0.95
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	39.25	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	39.25	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	37.12	-2.134	-5.44%	-0.55
+3	2023-02-08	38.01	-1.246	-3.17%	-0.32
+7	2023-02-10	35.25	-4.006	-10.21%	-1.04
+14	2023-02-17	32.10	-7.152	-18.22%	-1.85
+30	2023-03-06	36.23	-3.020	-7.69%	-0.78
+60	2023-04-06	26.92	-12.330	-31.41%	-3.19
+90	2023-05-05	21.80	-17.454	-44.46%	-4.52

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 9.83%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 735). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	23.63	-0.710	-2.92%	-0.02
−14	2023-01-20	27.78	+3.440	+14.13%	+0.08
−7	2023-01-27	27.70	+3.360	+13.80%	+0.08
−3	2023-02-02	26.70	+2.354	+9.67%	+0.05
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	24.34	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	24.34	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	25.32	+0.974	+4.00%	+0.02
+3	2023-02-08	25.07	+0.728	+2.99%	+0.02
+7	2023-02-10	25.04	+0.698	+2.87%	+0.02
+14	2023-02-17	22.90	-1.440	-5.92%	-0.03
+30	2023-03-06	25.19	+0.844	+3.47%	+0.02
+60	2023-04-06	33.98	+9.636	+39.58%	+0.22
+90	2023-05-05	27.39	+3.042	+12.50%	+0.07

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 182.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 735). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2023-01-06	57.61	+28.228	+96.07%	+0.54
−14	2023-01-20	77.51	+48.128	+163.79%	+0.93
−7	2023-01-27	73.74	+44.352	+150.94%	+0.85
−3	2023-02-02	35.06	+5.672	+19.30%	+0.11
−1	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	29.38	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2023-02-03l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	29.38	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2023-02-06	32.50	+3.116	+10.60%	+0.06
+3	2023-02-08	37.04	+7.658	+26.06%	+0.15
+7	2023-02-10	31.97	+2.588	+8.81%	+0.05
+14	2023-02-17	24.75	-4.632	-15.76%	-0.09
+30	2023-03-06	37.16	+7.774	+26.46%	+0.15
+60	2023-04-06	19.15	-10.230	-34.81%	-0.20
+90	2023-05-05	14.45	-14.934	-50.82%	-0.29

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 176.64%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 735). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 05/02/2023. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	11.62–12.12 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2023-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Osservat	0 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-01)
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	91.00 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-01)+8.33% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +2.39 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	85.86 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)+8.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +1.96 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	3,460,000 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-01)+2.06% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +0.88 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	0.9840 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)-10.92% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -2.71 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	1.635 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2023-03-06)-7.88% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -2.49 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (29/01/2023 – 07/03/2023) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: l-Ungerija, diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra.

Il-paragun maż-żejt mhux maħdum biss ma setax jinqara.

API 404 for /api/events/eu-russia-products-embargo-2023/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'eu-russia-products-embargo-2023' and country 'hungary'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-1.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.2 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.93663
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.9659199842168333
t0_value
0.94652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.044880192705919
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.23287405265684585
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.009890000000000065
change_pct_from_t0
-1.044880192705919
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.486889719077522
change_in_volatility_units
-0.23287405265684585
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.93663
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.9659199842168333
t0_value
0.94652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.044880192705919
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.23287405265684585
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.009890000000000065
change_pct_from_t0
-1.044880192705919
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.486889719077522
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.23287405265684585
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5fab87336d9cbb82b8a19b428943b141412f7dd861dc4ed24d5ec7d03a269e2e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-1.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.93283
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.9302890980841281
t0_value
0.94652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.4463508430883636
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.32235043284855347
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.01368999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-1.4463508430883636
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.486889719077522
change_in_volatility_units
-0.32235043284855347
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.93283
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.9302890980841281
t0_value
0.94652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-1.4463508430883636
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.32235043284855347
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.01368999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-1.4463508430883636
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.486889719077522
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.32235043284855347
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e98c0c6659993b83e3d9513a02c4015691d19428f1684a9ebb4c8eed656dfdd3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-6.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.88964
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.525315947538977
t0_value
0.94652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-6.009381735198415
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.3393201329748547
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.05688000000000004
change_pct_from_t0
-6.009381735198415
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.486889719077522
change_in_volatility_units
-1.3393201329748547
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.88964
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.525315947538977
t0_value
0.94652
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-6.009381735198415
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.3393201329748547
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.05688000000000004
change_pct_from_t0
-6.009381735198415
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.486889719077522
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.3393201329748547
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 82719371d4f0efa4db17a12c4cce67bfc9b8b3f4516fb171493b65d93ca7e3f9 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-0.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.2 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.5924500000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
1.0960091757046158
t0_value
1.60533
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.8023272473572276
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.23819294947414024
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.01287999999999978
change_pct_from_t0
-0.8023272473572276
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.368392091909225
change_in_volatility_units
-0.23819294947414024
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.5924500000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
1.0960091757046158
t0_value
1.60533
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.8023272473572276
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.23819294947414024
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.01287999999999978
change_pct_from_t0
-0.8023272473572276
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.368392091909225
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.23819294947414024
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a2d899395901abd43fb53463867faed4170e97003c83f462e27c0ea9f884cea8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-0.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.6024200000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
1.1541096343504094
t0_value
1.60533
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.18127114051314971
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.053815332528703366
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.002909999999999746
change_pct_from_t0
-0.18127114051314971
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
3.368392091909225
change_in_volatility_units
-0.053815332528703366
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.6024200000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
1.1541096343504094
t0_value
1.60533
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-0.18127114051314971
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.053815332528703366
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.002909999999999746
change_pct_from_t0
-0.18127114051314971
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
3.368392091909225
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.053815332528703366
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità bc97911afff21ccdd3b40c6288be957895d0813ac445d9f32ab1e2be6d2c55af · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-3.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.55116
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.8553905260070417
t0_value
1.60533
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-3.3743840830234175
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.001778887656394
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.05416999999999983
change_pct_from_t0
-3.3743840830234175
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.368392091909225
change_in_volatility_units
-1.001778887656394
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.55116
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.8553905260070417
t0_value
1.60533
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
-3.3743840830234175
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.001778887656394
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.05416999999999983
change_pct_from_t0
-3.3743840830234175
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.368392091909225
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.001778887656394
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 45e05eea23486f921f63d2bffd9b9145a1766b4ad8b8d17d218874067667473e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-5.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.2 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.0499500000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.1506959722264557
t0_value
1.10467
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-4.953515529524643
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.229487396432435
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.05471999999999988
change_pct_from_t0
-4.953515529524643
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.028927457002084
change_in_volatility_units
-1.229487396432435
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.0499500000000002
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.1506959722264557
t0_value
1.10467
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-4.953515529524643
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.229487396432435
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.05471999999999988
change_pct_from_t0
-4.953515529524643
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
4.028927457002084
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.229487396432435
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 23b6c426e9114f7d0704172eb5c7d80c1a66f0a5efa04ca86e4bfa7d85602164 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-10.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.984
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
-0.6527316242436015
t0_value
1.10467
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-10.923624249775957
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.711298321043537
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.12067000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
-10.923624249775957
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.028927457002084
change_in_volatility_units
-2.711298321043537
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.984
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
-0.6527316242436015
t0_value
1.10467
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-10.923624249775957
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.711298321043537
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.12067000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
-10.923624249775957
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.028927457002084
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.711298321043537
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8d6c25c9309cd0264f8b2b26d3ed856c2d984c6b27be287064df1c46f3052c5c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-19.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.8896200000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
-1.8025041269705724
t0_value
1.10467
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-19.467352240940727
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.831894455460447
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.21504999999999996
change_pct_from_t0
-19.467352240940727
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.028927457002084
change_in_volatility_units
-4.831894455460447
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
0.8896200000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
-1.8025041269705724
t0_value
1.10467
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-19.467352240940727
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.831894455460447
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.21504999999999996
change_pct_from_t0
-19.467352240940727
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
4.028927457002084
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-4.831894455460447
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 207204b2d7dd56b64fdfa52e48342974ca45f17e00191356e9ca5846bfe3bdcd · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-3.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.2 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.7050100000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.44506543780742336
t0_value
1.7748
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-3.9322740590488956
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.2412342909563332
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0697899999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-3.9322740590488956
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.1680353078379735
change_in_volatility_units
-1.2412342909563332
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.7050100000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.44506543780742336
t0_value
1.7748
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-3.9322740590488956
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-02-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-1.2412342909563332
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.0697899999999998
change_pct_from_t0
-3.9322740590488956
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
6
normal_volatility_pct
3.1680353078379735
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-1.2412342909563332
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a656bd206af0402e32f747564e9df8804c31cff91c0412b376bac7c65dbce2f8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-7.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.6349
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
-0.12344308602371576
t0_value
1.7748
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-7.882578318683791
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.488159869677481
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.1398999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-7.882578318683791
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
3.1680353078379735
change_in_volatility_units
-2.488159869677481
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.6349
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
-0.12344308602371576
t0_value
1.7748
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-7.882578318683791
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-2.488159869677481
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.1398999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-7.882578318683791
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
3.1680353078379735
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-2.488159869677481
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f59775324a708ba4b2779d9286303b968d83bc16758caba4f76da752a8eaf2d6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’-14.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.51834
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
-1.06860573810983
t0_value
1.7748
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-14.450078882127558
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.561211438009199
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.2564599999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-14.450078882127558
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.1680353078379735
change_in_volatility_units
-4.561211438009199
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
1.51834
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
-1.06860573810983
t0_value
1.7748
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
-14.450078882127558
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2023-05-01
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-4.561211438009199
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
-0.2564599999999999
change_pct_from_t0
-14.450078882127558
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.1680353078379735
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-4.561211438009199
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 32af4b53cea3cbec0d53fd89ab1f01253e308cc7a88d31e2196b99a2a656e3e6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Ungerija) b’+0.6 c/l (firxa -0.5–+1.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-0.9 c/l, u jibqa’ -1.5 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.015293604723373499
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.009110000000000062
expected_eur_per_litre
0.006183604723373436
proxy_volatility_units
-0.06928868336620317
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-3.1020000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.005164728422982911
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.017531937869729546
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.015293604723373499
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.009110000000000062
expected_eur_per_litre
0.006183604723373436
proxy_volatility_units
-0.06928868336620317
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-3.1020000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.005164728422982911
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.017531937869729546
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 41a1ebf0b830663813c769633c8639e1670d225f52579d04e92724c44a06fb96 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Ungerija) b’+2.8 c/l (firxa -2.7–+8.4); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-5.7 c/l, u jibqa’ -8.5 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.08522603644292026
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.05688000000000004
expected_eur_per_litre
0.028346036442920226
proxy_volatility_units
0.11373887030970548
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.091999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.02688033298656356
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.08357240587240346
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.08522603644292026
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.05688000000000004
expected_eur_per_litre
0.028346036442920226
proxy_volatility_units
0.11373887030970548
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
5.091999999999999
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.02688033298656356
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.08357240587240346
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
182.6569381415496
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6efcc7d3fcc4240ae7f499dbc6f0dbd0501398dc4d4da893611b6de2939bc6d8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Ungerija) b’+0.5 c/l (firxa -0.9–+1.9); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-12.1 c/l, u jibqa’ -12.6 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.12578493714937994
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.12103000000000008
expected_eur_per_litre
0.004754937149379865
proxy_volatility_units
-1.9939207000691863
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-8.939999999999998
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.0090318263956824
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.018541700694442033
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-02-27
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-27
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.12578493714937994
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.12103000000000008
expected_eur_per_litre
0.004754937149379865
proxy_volatility_units
-1.9939207000691863
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-8.939999999999998
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.0090318263956824
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.018541700694442033
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 7a0336198325f1f4a6458f51f05974002a477a4e810cf7efd106a418d3634cd4 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Ungerija) b’+2.5 c/l (firxa -4.0–+9.0); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’-21.5 c/l, u jibqa’ -24.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, naqas b’27.3 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.23980316249928668
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.21504999999999996
expected_eur_per_litre
0.024753162499286732
proxy_volatility_units
-6.086587908824174
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-27.290000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.04004115447290489
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.08954747947147922
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2023-04-28
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2023-01-30
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-05-01
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.23980316249928668
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2023-01-30
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
-0.21504999999999996
expected_eur_per_litre
0.024753162499286732
proxy_volatility_units
-6.086587908824174
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-27.290000000000003
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
-0.04004115447290489
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.08954747947147922
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
9.833812917722621
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità dc525ef20f1ae6ce7f31cb5fefb699a8e66bcaaf59dd0bed01d3a8cd10b48202 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-Ungerija, Frar 2023: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (11%–11%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Hungary
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_max_pct
11.3421550094518
value_min_pct
10.8771266540643
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Hungary
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_max_pct
11.3421550094518
value_min_pct
10.8771266540643
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 1b4c5e884d143cee9fda6dba3dabf0c0b3d3a9dd3ea9eb981e553144a06d428f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-Ungerija, Frar 2023: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%–5%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Hungary
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_max_pct
5.04201680672269
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2023-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Hungary
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_max_pct
5.04201680672269
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2023-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 444057cfb16db2a7d0939833ab096f4efe4fc2eb3f34c0d7c040eb2999bff166 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (l-Ungerija, Frar 2023) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): +6.9%.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
country
Hungary
change_pct
6.922688226376958
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_tonnes
529000
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
494750
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
0
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
country
Hungary
change_pct
6.922688226376958
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_tonnes
529000
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
494750
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
0
Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9f4dbb202af5768916668ad63bdfbe616b5c7c2ad08fbc4e8133a0b0ed9322bc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Frar 2023: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (l-Ungerija) kienu 4.1% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 84.0 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_HU
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
days_of_cover
84
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
2.2933011466505735
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
3390000
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
3255500
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
4.131469820304101
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
4.131469820304101
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
4.1
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2023-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_HU
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
days_of_cover
84
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
2.2933011466505735
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2023-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
3390000
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
3255500
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
4.131469820304101
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b6f3791a5320af1abe16b9726b1c3e5badb39730a7d86a371c734d862b4334bc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (l-Ungerija) madwar l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (11–11%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
country
Hungary
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
dependence_band
moderate
dependence_range
11–11%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
country
Hungary
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
dependence_band
moderate
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
11–11%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ad151ab48bf4b226746286c6174921540e5bdc2a8333e17f55065d2a5b5a1c98 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+8.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.8 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.46
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.08812991325524933
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.383005707038683
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-02-10
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.609999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.383005707038683
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.46
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.08812991325524933
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.383005707038683
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-02-10
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
6.609999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
8.383005707038683
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.8495435613044966
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 38adc5dea4321bbd49653a24f7c0174373d8aa5326085a6d6dbe425d5975e73b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+8.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.0 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.86
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.1507166248435324
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.890298034242239
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
7.010000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
8.890298034242239
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
85.86
status
OBSERVED
z_score
0.1507166248435324
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
8.890298034242239
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
7.010000000000005
change_pct_from_t0
8.890298034242239
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.9614675287056775
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0da9031a475f48ba9492ce0f26d02ef4b075756fb5a3ed508e2b5f1ea86c489b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’-3.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.8 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
75.85
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.4155158326532304
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-3.804692454026633
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-05-05
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-3
change_pct_from_t0
-3.804692454026633
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
value
75.85
status
OBSERVED
z_score
-1.4155158326532304
t0_value
78.85
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
-3.804692454026633
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2023-05-05
same_observation
false
volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
-3
change_pct_from_t0
-3.804692454026633
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.532472704306617
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
-0.8394297555088486
Mudell event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 956c15054a5318a99cfc9c833555e8d3f8ac980a1c014dbf655e5357d300335e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 298ab38a71e7fa1e827846158174e16f115ed958766d0a18618b16aa877096e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0a3ee8f8627510915169cd9a2eaa4452fa0806bd90c55f8208323cb6b271bea9 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b5b761de3451d820e679168f99a9b0a6cadccd3d87b852d57da6f18bc2de3e6c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2023-02-05T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)
event_slug
eu-russia-products-embargo-2023
event_type
EMBARGO
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e9796ff5d8838330a75be8298f9f4cd8c4fea863574dbd933141d0a1f568d3c6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

L-Ungerija: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “Projbizzjoni tal-UE fuq l-importazzjoni ta’ prodotti petroliferi raffinati Russi (fis-seħħ: 5 ta’ Frar 2023)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: l-Ungerija, diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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