Avvenimenti / Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu

Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)

Dati: 28/02/2026 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Istrett ta’ Hormuz / il-Golf Persjan

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Ivverifikat

Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1

Dokumenti tas-sors (7)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Id-Danimarka, Diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi). Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 14; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 6.

Qari ppubblikat: 170; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 12; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 78. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	71.00	-0.320	-0.45%	-0.23
−14	2026-02-13	69.96	-1.360	-1.91%	-0.99
−7	2026-02-20	72.75	+1.430	+2.01%	+1.04
−3	2026-02-25	70.69	-0.630	-0.88%	-0.46
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	83.28	+11.960	+16.77%	+8.68
+7	2026-03-06	95.74	+24.420	+34.24%	+17.72
+14	2026-03-13	103.2	+31.910	+44.74%	+23.16
+30	2026-03-30	121.9	+50.560	+70.89%	+36.70
+60	2026-04-29	124.2	+52.840	+74.09%	+38.35
+90	2026-05-29	92.88	+21.560	+30.23%	+15.65

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 756). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	371,073	-63,764	-14.66%	-0.36
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	434,837	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	434,837	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	434,837	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	434,837	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	434,837	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	289,471	-145,366	-33.43%	-0.83
+3	2026-03-01	289,471	-145,366	-33.43%	-0.83
+7	2026-03-01	289,471	-145,366	-33.43%	-0.83
+14	2026-03-01	289,471	-145,366	-33.43%	-0.83
+30	2026-03-01	289,471	-145,366	-33.43%	-0.83
+60	2026-04-01	545,311	+110,474	+25.41%	+0.63
+90	2026-05-01	464,000	+29,163	+6.71%	+0.17

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 40.36%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	1.197	+0.016	+1.38%	+3.12
−14	2026-02-13	1.186	+0.006	+0.48%	+1.09
−7	2026-02-20	1.177	-0.004	-0.32%	-0.73
−3	2026-02-25	1.178	-0.002	-0.18%	-0.40
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	1.161	-0.020	-1.69%	-3.81
+7	2026-03-06	1.156	-0.024	-2.07%	-4.67
+14	2026-03-13	1.148	-0.033	-2.79%	-6.29
+30	2026-03-30	1.148	-0.032	-2.72%	-6.14
+60	2026-04-29	1.171	-0.010	-0.84%	-1.89
+90	2026-05-29	1.164	-0.016	-1.36%	-3.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.44%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 765). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatBaxxa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	10.74–17.83	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01	0–20.24	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01	0–20.24	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01	0–20.24	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01	0–20.24	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01	0–20.24	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	0–34.91	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	0–34.91	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	0–34.91	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	0–34.91	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	0–34.91	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	0–8.040	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	73.79	+1.365	+1.88%	+1.47
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	72.42	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	72.42	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	72.42	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	72.42	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	72.42	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	72.66	+0.242	+0.33%	+0.26
+3	2026-03-01	72.66	+0.242	+0.33%	+0.26
+7	2026-03-01	72.66	+0.242	+0.33%	+0.26
+14	2026-03-01	72.66	+0.242	+0.33%	+0.26
+30	2026-03-01	72.66	+0.242	+0.33%	+0.26
+60	2026-04-01	70.32	-2.102	-2.90%	-2.27
+90	2026-05-01	70.04	-2.378	-3.28%	-2.56

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.28%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.3714	-0.009	-2.40%	-0.66
−14	2026-02-09	0.3742	-0.006	-1.68%	-0.46
−7	2026-02-16	0.3817	+0.001	+0.29%	+0.08
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+7	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+14	2026-03-09	0.5233	+0.143	+37.50%	+10.24
+30	2026-03-30	0.6763	+0.296	+77.69%	+21.21
+60	2026-04-27	0.6445	+0.264	+69.35%	+18.93
+90	2026-05-25	0.5248	+0.144	+37.88%	+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	2,740,902	+2,834	+0.10%	+0.02
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,738,068	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,738,068	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,738,068	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,738,068	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,738,068	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	2,207,827	-530,241	-19.37%	-3.51
+3	2026-03-01	2,207,827	-530,241	-19.37%	-3.51
+7	2026-03-01	2,207,827	-530,241	-19.37%	-3.51
+14	2026-03-01	2,207,827	-530,241	-19.37%	-3.51
+30	2026-03-01	2,207,827	-530,241	-19.37%	-3.51
+60	2026-04-01	2,301,551	-436,517	-15.94%	-2.89
+90	2026-05-01	2,292,053	-446,015	-16.29%	-2.95

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 5.52%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	1.741	-0.039	-2.22%	-1.01
−14	2026-02-09	1.740	-0.040	-2.24%	-1.02
−7	2026-02-16	1.727	-0.054	-3.01%	-1.37
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.780	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.780	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.780	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.780	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	1.794	+0.013	+0.75%	+0.34
+7	2026-03-02	1.794	+0.013	+0.75%	+0.34
+14	2026-03-09	2.115	+0.335	+18.80%	+8.58
+30	2026-03-30	2.355	+0.575	+32.30%	+14.74
+60	2026-04-27	2.235	+0.455	+25.53%	+11.65
+90	2026-05-25	2.222	+0.441	+24.79%	+11.31

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.19%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.8277	-0.026	-3.07%	-0.95
−14	2026-02-09	0.8219	-0.032	-3.74%	-1.15
−7	2026-02-16	0.8110	-0.043	-5.02%	-1.55
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8539	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8539	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8539	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8539	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.8645	+0.011	+1.25%	+0.38
+7	2026-03-02	0.8645	+0.011	+1.25%	+0.38
+14	2026-03-09	1.117	+0.263	+30.85%	+9.52
+30	2026-03-30	1.310	+0.456	+53.38%	+16.47
+60	2026-04-27	1.213	+0.359	+42.10%	+12.99
+90	2026-05-25	1.203	+0.349	+40.86%	+12.60

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.24%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.9131	-0.013	-1.44%	-0.94
−14	2026-02-09	0.9186	-0.008	-0.85%	-0.55
−7	2026-02-16	0.9157	-0.011	-1.16%	-0.75
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9264	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9264	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9264	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.9264	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.9290	+0.003	+0.28%	+0.18
+7	2026-03-02	0.9290	+0.003	+0.28%	+0.18
+14	2026-03-09	0.9976	+0.071	+7.69%	+5.01
+30	2026-03-30	1.046	+0.119	+12.86%	+8.38
+60	2026-04-27	1.021	+0.095	+10.26%	+6.69
+90	2026-05-25	1.019	+0.092	+9.98%	+6.51

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.53%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	32.03	-9.466	-22.81%	-3.77
−14	2026-02-13	32.27	-9.224	-22.23%	-3.68
−7	2026-02-20	37.84	-3.656	-8.81%	-1.46
−3	2026-02-25	43.84	+2.352	+5.67%	+0.94
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	52.13	+10.636	+25.63%	+4.24
+7	2026-03-06	58.90	+17.412	+41.96%	+6.94
+14	2026-03-13	66.83	+25.336	+61.06%	+10.10
+30	2026-03-30	66.87	+25.376	+61.16%	+10.12
+60	2026-04-29	54.93	+13.436	+32.38%	+5.36
+90	2026-05-29	55.17	+13.678	+32.97%	+5.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 6.05%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	19.97	+4.100	+25.83%	+0.93
−14	2026-02-13	10.43	-5.444	-34.30%	-1.23
−7	2026-02-20	11.42	-4.454	-28.06%	-1.00
−3	2026-02-25	13.39	-2.478	-15.61%	-0.56
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	19.87	+4.000	+25.20%	+0.90
+7	2026-03-06	20.56	+4.686	+29.52%	+1.06
+14	2026-03-13	25.33	+9.460	+59.60%	+2.13
+30	2026-03-30	21.09	+5.216	+32.86%	+1.18
+60	2026-04-29	34.94	+19.064	+120.11%	+4.30
+90	2026-05-29	41.27	+25.396	+160.01%	+5.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	23.42	-7.240	-23.62%	-2.64
−14	2026-02-13	21.47	-9.182	-29.95%	-3.35
−7	2026-02-20	27.04	-3.614	-11.79%	-1.32
−3	2026-02-25	33.05	+2.394	+7.81%	+0.87
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	41.29	+10.636	+34.69%	+3.88
+7	2026-03-06	48.07	+17.412	+56.80%	+6.35
+14	2026-03-13	56.03	+25.378	+82.78%	+9.26
+30	2026-03-30	56.07	+25.418	+82.91%	+9.28
+60	2026-04-29	58.29	+27.632	+90.14%	+10.08
+90	2026-05-29	43.07	+12.418	+40.51%	+4.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

Mhux disponibbli: raġuni mhux ikklassifikata

L-API ta kodiċi ta’ raġuni li din il-paġna ma tagħrafx. Is-sentenza tiegħu tintwera hawn taħt kif inhi.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant: m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 28/02/2026. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Osservat	0 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	0–34.91 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	72.66 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)+0.33% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +0.26 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	121.9 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+70.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +36.70 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	2,207,827 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-19.37% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -3.51 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	1.310 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+53.38% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +16.47 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	2.355 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+32.30% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +14.74 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: id-Danimarka, diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra.

Il-paragun maż-żejt mhux maħdum biss ma setax jinqara.

API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'denmark'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+1.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.5 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8433718813577472
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
2.688300587520852
t0_value
0.8327198254514302
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.27918845940078
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.5006214151572889
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.010652055906317015
change_pct_from_t0
1.27918845940078
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.555201237244067
change_in_volatility_units
0.5006214151572889
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8433718813577472
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
2.688300587520852
t0_value
0.8327198254514302
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.27918845940078
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.5006214151572889
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.010652055906317015
change_pct_from_t0
1.27918845940078
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.555201237244067
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.5006214151572889
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 20a01b8842aff003c7069c649a2463c0022b5d252df7c4d9ac82285c13458fdc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+28.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’11.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0712326200703897
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
16.67418760435162
t0_value
0.8327198254514302
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
28.64262232373992
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
11.209536809176194
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.23851279461895947
change_pct_from_t0
28.64262232373992
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.555201237244067
change_in_volatility_units
11.209536809176194
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0712326200703897
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
16.67418760435162
t0_value
0.8327198254514302
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
28.64262232373992
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
11.209536809176194
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.23851279461895947
change_pct_from_t0
28.64262232373992
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.555201237244067
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
11.209536809176194
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 95ba65965eb853d41b1d3dfc2b46ef3d699819160816cd8dc40568b4a36a4bfd · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+54.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’21.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.28548294275887
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
29.824679538021307
t0_value
0.8327198254514302
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
54.371602965257864
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.278794864666235
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.4527631173074399
change_pct_from_t0
54.371602965257864
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.555201237244067
change_in_volatility_units
21.278794864666235
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.28548294275887
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
29.824679538021307
t0_value
0.8327198254514302
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
54.371602965257864
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.278794864666235
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.4527631173074399
change_pct_from_t0
54.371602965257864
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.555201237244067
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
21.278794864666235
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9bb31373cb409d50fbacec3eda9c221e089dbf44661d420242bbcef5ea79df81 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+0.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.5 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.951493735946033
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
3.348571364623529
t0_value
1.938238719263255
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.6838691514642847
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.4528952936435433
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.013255016682777843
change_pct_from_t0
0.6838691514642847
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.5099939457585358
change_in_volatility_units
0.4528952936435433
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.951493735946033
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
3.348571364623529
t0_value
1.938238719263255
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.6838691514642847
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.4528952936435433
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.013255016682777843
change_pct_from_t0
0.6838691514642847
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.5099939457585358
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.4528952936435433
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b41fde70074906c2445e2ef19eb45e0b405f4a5d0df11db46241f1991dca584c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+15.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’10.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.2321249347625356
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
18.845820808824918
t0_value
1.938238719263255
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
15.16253971084582
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
10.041457287584697
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2938862154992805
change_pct_from_t0
15.16253971084582
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.5099939457585358
change_in_volatility_units
10.041457287584697
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.2321249347625356
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
18.845820808824918
t0_value
1.938238719263255
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
15.16253971084582
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
10.041457287584697
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2938862154992805
change_pct_from_t0
15.16253971084582
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.5099939457585358
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
10.041457287584697
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f63a1d6d738bb86abc85674b68fde048bc959636b3d54379ca3eba3f44b76b5c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+29.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’19.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.5000334586918993
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
33.64048811976752
t0_value
1.938238719263255
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
28.984806352552294
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.195312957358887
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.5617947394286442
change_pct_from_t0
28.984806352552294
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.5099939457585358
change_in_volatility_units
19.195312957358887
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.5000334586918993
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
33.64048811976752
t0_value
1.938238719263255
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
28.984806352552294
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.195312957358887
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.5617947394286442
change_pct_from_t0
28.984806352552294
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.5099939457585358
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
19.195312957358887
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 24d2069494e4ffa665d5c7821d45a43b922b60da881d3f2134c266b305f2757a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+1.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8645197558625122
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
3.6741359933189948
t0_value
0.8538691153439437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.2473387697455613
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3847353160002431
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.010650640518568455
change_pct_from_t0
1.2473387697455613
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.242069853927247
change_in_volatility_units
0.3847353160002431
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8645197558625122
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
3.6741359933189948
t0_value
0.8538691153439437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.2473387697455613
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3847353160002431
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.010650640518568455
change_pct_from_t0
1.2473387697455613
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
3.242069853927247
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.3847353160002431
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f6a6455ed680e26ce166600c10da5135507200956c2e8a645099013997bf1c9b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+53.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’16.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.3097006436763154
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
31.329574612656018
t0_value
0.8538691153439437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
53.38423888873882
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
16.46609767648047
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.4558315283323717
change_pct_from_t0
53.38423888873882
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.242069853927247
change_in_volatility_units
16.46609767648047
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.3097006436763154
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
31.329574612656018
t0_value
0.8538691153439437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
53.38423888873882
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
16.46609767648047
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.4558315283323717
change_pct_from_t0
53.38423888873882
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
3.242069853927247
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
16.46609767648047
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e15cae10c400088075ccda6fe20009494c70a702cbb0aa6918e8c2a8d284ab4e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+40.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’12.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.2027730563845878
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
24.687040290075227
t0_value
0.8538691153439437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
40.8615248837175
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
12.603530067132985
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.34890394104064404
change_pct_from_t0
40.8615248837175
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
3.242069853927247
change_in_volatility_units
12.603530067132985
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.2027730563845878
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
24.687040290075227
t0_value
0.8538691153439437
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
40.8615248837175
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
12.603530067132985
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.34890394104064404
change_pct_from_t0
40.8615248837175
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
3.242069853927247
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
12.603530067132985
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c9c3d89402c32b7e6e049efd7a87b98eb9dc870bf9feb817ac47d6073d6aa759 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+0.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.7935539136952567
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
3.9984061839146774
t0_value
1.780288326395117
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.7451370153620583
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.34003306193467553
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.013265587300139714
change_pct_from_t0
0.7451370153620583
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.19136636632472
change_in_volatility_units
0.34003306193467553
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.7935539136952567
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
3.9984061839146774
t0_value
1.780288326395117
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.7451370153620583
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.34003306193467553
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.013265587300139714
change_pct_from_t0
0.7451370153620583
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.19136636632472
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.34003306193467553
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cc59ac710aa888774b0faa901fca000e22cac29955fa31020be30f7ee1b76480 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+32.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’14.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.355239739317784
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
32.602354317990354
t0_value
1.780288326395117
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
32.29540992873209
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
14.737567585696217
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.5749514129226669
change_pct_from_t0
32.29540992873209
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.19136636632472
change_in_volatility_units
14.737567585696217
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.355239739317784
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
32.602354317990354
t0_value
1.780288326395117
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
32.29540992873209
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
14.737567585696217
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.5749514129226669
change_pct_from_t0
32.29540992873209
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.19136636632472
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
14.737567585696217
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità deed45edfe9990d7785c48dec27793a9163074b9a10a08cd1b677c215faff69b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, id-Danimarka) inbidel b’+24.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’11.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.221657142092373
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
25.799637374909405
t0_value
1.780288326395117
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
24.791985048342028
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
11.313482505402439
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.44136881569725595
change_pct_from_t0
24.791985048342028
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.19136636632472
change_in_volatility_units
11.313482505402439
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.221657142092373
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
z_score
25.799637374909405
t0_value
1.780288326395117
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
24.791985048342028
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_DK_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
11.313482505402439
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.44136881569725595
change_pct_from_t0
24.791985048342028
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.19136636632472
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
11.313482505402439
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e81235061805cdeb6251229aba83a83282f6d9b2a33c6562ae05675ded0e0663 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
X’kienu jagħmlu l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom lill-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, id-Danimarka) fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”) huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5): m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
UNKNOWN
country
Denmark
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
proxy_product
null
gap_eur_per_litre
null
actual_eur_per_litre
null
expected_eur_per_litre
null
proxy_volatility_units
null
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
null
pass_through_window_label
null
expected_low_eur_per_litre
null
expected_high_eur_per_litre
null
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
UNKNOWN
country
Denmark
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DK_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
proxy_product
null
statement_topic
event
gap_eur_per_litre
null
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
null
expected_eur_per_litre
null
proxy_volatility_units
null
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
null
pass_through_window_label
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
null
expected_high_eur_per_litre
null
Mudell event.crude_only.unknown v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d055c65665922339510da2f5d302f60d72420f9f032f72e4de8561b061726f6f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
X’kienu jagħmlu l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom lill-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, id-Danimarka) fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”) huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5): m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
UNKNOWN
country
Denmark
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DK_DIESEL
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
proxy_product
null
gap_eur_per_litre
null
actual_eur_per_litre
null
expected_eur_per_litre
null
proxy_volatility_units
null
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
null
pass_through_window_label
null
expected_low_eur_per_litre
null
expected_high_eur_per_litre
null
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
UNKNOWN
country
Denmark
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_DK_DIESEL
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
proxy_product
null
statement_topic
event
gap_eur_per_litre
null
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
null
expected_eur_per_litre
null
proxy_volatility_units
null
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
null
pass_through_window_label
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
null
expected_high_eur_per_litre
null
Mudell event.crude_only.unknown v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4d915cb11d5437e35bb943e8f16261e4c53592ddb373b6c14ecfb78acb320cfc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Id-Danimarka, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (0%).
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatBaxxa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.point v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ca1cc2d919088b57fb25b11d3dcc288aebe60bc253b57bb7715f9126085a7364 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Id-Danimarka, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet moderata (0%–20%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Denmark
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
value_max_pct
20.2399457175529
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Denmark
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
value_max_pct
20.2399457175529
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4247d6cce2d54ee3f086b61791208f94a84e479fccd68e8ca6f53897812b6a80 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (id-Danimarka, Frar 2026) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): -0.4%.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Denmark
change_pct
-0.3633518188499568
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
value_tonnes
434837
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
436422.75
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
0
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Denmark
change_pct
-0.3633518188499568
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
value_tonnes
434837
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
436422.75
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
0
Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c8e2f91e2f836b33f47142b91576400b2761d05ca87ffabd2ec99503ce9ff10d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Frar 2026: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (id-Danimarka) kienu 9.2% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12), jiem ta’ kopertura: 72.4 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_DK
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
days_of_cover
72.42
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-0.10339661906919694
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
2738068
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
2507575.1666666665
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
9.19186138055948
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
9.19186138055948
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
9.2
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Denmark
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_DK
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
days_of_cover
72.42
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-0.10339661906919694
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
2738068
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
2507575.1666666665
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
9.19186138055948
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.above v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 51f30b1b61daac008ab98e369b0779d206cfd01f0e681f604a09900a68b51035 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (id-Danimarka) madwar l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (0–0%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: id-DanimarkaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Denmark
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
dependence_band
limited
dependence_range
0–0%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Denmark
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
DK
country_name
Denmark
country_slug
denmark
dependence_band
limited
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
0–0%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 06971daadccf0d8ff25967c83bc323d26d2325f3e4f0d2411bd4a54b151980eb · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+34.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+70.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’36.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+30.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Id-Danimarka: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Mhux disponibbli: raġuni mhux ikklassifikata

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: id-Danimarka, diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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