Fuel Origin

Avvenimenti / Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu

Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)

Dati
28/02/2026 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data
jum
Status
Għadu għaddej
Ambitu
L-Istrett ta’ Hormuz / il-Golf Persjan

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Ivverifikat
Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1
Dokumenti tas-sors (7)
PajjiżPajjiżIl-ĠermanjaFranzaIn-NetherlandsIl-PolonjaIl-FinlandjaL-EstonjaL-AwstrijaIl-BelġjuIl-BulgarijaIl-KroazjaĊipruIċ-ĊekjaId-DanimarkaIl-GreċjaL-UngerijaL-IrlandaL-ItaljaIl-LatvjaIl-LitwanjaIl-LussemburguMaltaIl-PortugallIr-RumanijaIs-SlovakkjaIs-SlovenjaSpanjaL-Iżvezja
KarburantKarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Il-Finlandja, Petrol (Euro-super 95). Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 15; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 4.

Qari ppubblikat: 177; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 18; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 52. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+90130.763.52026-01-29: 71.00 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 69.96 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 72.75 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 70.69 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 71.32 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 83.28 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 95.74 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 103.2 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 121.9 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 124.2 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 92.88 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2971.00-0.320-0.45%-0.23
−142026-02-1369.96-1.360-1.91%-0.99
−72026-02-2072.75+1.430+2.01%+1.04
−32026-02-2570.69-0.630-0.88%-0.46
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0383.28+11.960+16.77%+8.68
+72026-03-0695.74+24.420+34.24%+17.72
+142026-03-13103.2+31.910+44.74%+23.16
+302026-03-30121.9+50.560+70.89%+36.70
+602026-04-29124.2+52.840+74.09%+38.35
+902026-05-2992.88+21.560+30.23%+15.65

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 756). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
T0−30T0+30+60+90903,000817,0002026-04-01: 860,000 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +60

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Il-linja tieqaf f’dawn il-punti tat-tieqa, fejn ma ġiet ippubblikata l-ebda ċifra fi żmien perjodu wieħed: −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +90.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-03-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-01860,000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 47.56%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 21). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2320.5672026-01-26: 0.6310 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.6339 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.6416 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6422 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7256 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7893 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.9524 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.057 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.168 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.6310-0.011-1.73%-0.02
−142026-02-090.6339-0.008-1.29%-0.01
−72026-02-160.6416-0.001-0.09%-0.00
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.64220.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.64220.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.64220.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.64220.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7256+0.083+12.99%+0.15
+72026-03-020.7256+0.083+12.99%+0.15
+142026-03-090.7893+0.147+22.92%+0.26
+302026-03-300.9524+0.310+48.31%+0.55
+602026-04-271.057+0.414+64.53%+0.74
+902026-05-251.168+0.525+81.81%+0.93

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 87.78%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.2031.1422026-01-29: 1.197 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 1.186 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 1.177 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 1.178 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 1.181 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 1.161 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 1.156 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 1.148 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.148 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 1.171 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 1.164 USD għal kull EUR, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-291.197+0.016+1.38%+3.12
−142026-02-131.186+0.006+0.48%+1.09
−72026-02-201.177-0.004-0.32%-0.73
−32026-02-251.178-0.002-0.18%-0.40
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-031.161-0.020-1.69%-3.81
+72026-03-061.156-0.024-2.07%-4.67
+142026-03-131.148-0.033-2.79%-6.29
+302026-03-301.148-0.032-2.72%-6.14
+602026-04-291.171-0.010-0.84%-1.89
+902026-05-291.164-0.016-1.36%-3.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.44%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 765). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharInferit · kunfidenza medjaBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0000.0002026-01-01: 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-0100.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-03-0100.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-0100.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-0100.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-0100.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-0100.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-0100.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-0100.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
T0−30T0+30+60+9014.630.002026-03-01: 0.8658 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 3.136 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 0 % tat-tunnellati importati, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +902026-02-01: 8.955 sa 13.06 % tat-tunnellati importati. Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs.

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Il-linja tieqaf f’dawn il-punti tat-tieqa, fejn ma ġiet ippubblikata l-ebda ċifra fi żmien perjodu wieħed: −30. Il-faxxa mdella hija l-firxa ammissibbli. Ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs: ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-01mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-018.955–13.06mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-018.955–13.06mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-018.955–13.06mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-018.955–13.06mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-018.955–13.06mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-03-010.8658mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-010.8658mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-010.8658mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-010.8658mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-010.8658mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-013.136mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-010mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 88.43%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 18). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+90213.30.02026-01-01: 190.4 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 190.4 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 190.3 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 181.8 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 0 kopertura (jiem), użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-01190.40.0000.00%0.00
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0190.40.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0190.40.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0190.40.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0190.40.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0190.40.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-01190.3-0.125-0.07%-0.00
+32026-03-01190.3-0.125-0.07%-0.00
+72026-03-01190.3-0.125-0.07%-0.00
+142026-03-01190.3-0.125-0.07%-0.00
+302026-03-01190.3-0.125-0.07%-0.00
+602026-04-01181.8-8.604-4.52%-0.26
+902026-05-010-190.414-100.00%-5.69

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 17.58%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 33). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+904,308,8003,794,2002026-01-01: 3,985,000 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −30l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-01, 3,882,000 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 3,844,000 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 3,976,000 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-01: 4,259,000 t, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-013,985,000+103,000+2.65%+0.73
−142026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T03,882,0000.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T03,882,0000.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T03,882,0000.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T03,882,0000.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T03,882,0000.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-013,844,000-38,000-0.98%-0.27
+32026-03-013,844,000-38,000-0.98%-0.27
+72026-03-013,844,000-38,000-0.98%-0.27
+142026-03-013,844,000-38,000-0.98%-0.27
+302026-03-013,844,000-38,000-0.98%-0.27
+602026-04-013,976,000+94,000+2.42%+0.66
+902026-05-014,259,000+377,000+9.71%+2.66

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja
T0−30T0+30+60+900.167-0.1812026-01-26: 0.1020 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.0614 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.1330 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.0897 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.0229 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: -0.0422 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: -0.1156 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: -0.1477 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.1020+0.102mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−142026-02-090.0614+0.061mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−72026-02-160.1330+0.133mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T000.000mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+32026-03-020.0897+0.090mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+72026-03-020.0897+0.090mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+142026-03-090.0229+0.023mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+302026-03-30-0.0422-0.042mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+602026-04-27-0.1156-0.116mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat
+902026-05-25-0.1477-0.148mhux ippubblikatmhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+902.2431.6562026-01-26: 1.827 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 1.779 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 1.879 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.713 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.930 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 1.926 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 2.049 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 2.088 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 2.187 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-261.827+0.114+6.66%+1.81
−142026-02-091.779+0.067+3.89%+1.06
−72026-02-161.879+0.166+9.71%+2.63
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.7130.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.7130.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.7130.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.7130.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.930+0.217+12.69%+3.44
+72026-03-021.930+0.217+12.69%+3.44
+142026-03-091.926+0.213+12.46%+3.38
+302026-03-302.049+0.336+19.65%+5.33
+602026-04-272.088+0.375+21.90%+5.94
+902026-05-252.187+0.474+27.68%+7.51

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.69%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.0650.5972026-01-26: 0.7330 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 0.6953 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 0.7746 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6422 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8153 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8122 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 0.9103 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 0.9410 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.020 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-260.7330+0.091+14.15%+1.88
−142026-02-090.6953+0.053+8.27%+1.10
−72026-02-160.7746+0.132+20.62%+2.74
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.64220.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.64220.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.64220.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T00.64220.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8153+0.173+26.96%+3.58
+72026-03-020.8153+0.173+26.96%+3.58
+142026-03-090.8122+0.170+26.49%+3.52
+302026-03-300.9103+0.268+41.75%+5.54
+602026-04-270.9410+0.299+46.53%+6.18
+902026-05-251.020+0.378+58.81%+7.81

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 7.53%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja
T0−30T0+30+60+901.1781.0592026-01-26: 1.094 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-09: 1.084 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-16: 1.104 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −7l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.070 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.115 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +3, +72026-03-09: 1.114 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 1.139 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-27: 1.147 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-25: 1.167 € għal kull litru, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-261.094+0.023+2.16%+1.83
−142026-02-091.084+0.014+1.26%+1.07
−72026-02-161.104+0.034+3.16%+2.67
−32026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.0700.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.0700.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.0700.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T01.0700.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.115+0.044+4.13%+3.49
+72026-03-021.115+0.044+4.13%+3.49
+142026-03-091.114+0.043+4.05%+3.43
+302026-03-301.139+0.068+6.39%+5.40
+602026-04-271.147+0.076+7.12%+6.02
+902026-05-251.167+0.096+9.00%+7.61

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.18%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+9044.976.732026-01-29: 19.97 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 10.43 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 11.42 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 13.39 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 15.87 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 19.87 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 20.56 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 25.33 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 21.09 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 34.94 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 41.27 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2919.97+4.100+25.83%+0.93
−142026-02-1310.43-5.444-34.30%-1.23
−72026-02-2011.42-4.454-28.06%-1.00
−32026-02-2513.39-2.478-15.61%-0.56
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0319.87+4.000+25.20%+0.90
+72026-03-0620.56+4.686+29.52%+1.06
+142026-03-1325.33+9.460+59.60%+2.13
+302026-03-3021.09+5.216+32.86%+1.18
+602026-04-2934.94+19.064+120.11%+4.30
+902026-05-2941.27+25.396+160.01%+5.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa
T0−30T0+30+60+9062.7117.062026-01-29: 23.42 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −302026-02-13: 21.47 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −142026-02-20: 27.04 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −72026-02-25: 33.05 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −3l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 — 2026-02-27, 30.66 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 41.29 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +32026-03-06: 48.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +72026-03-13: 56.03 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +142026-03-30: 56.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +302026-04-29: 58.29 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +602026-05-29: 43.07 $ għal kull barmil, użat għall-punti tat-tieqa: +90

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqaValur użatValurΔ ass.Δ %Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−302026-01-2923.42-7.240-23.62%-2.64
−142026-02-1321.47-9.182-29.95%-3.35
−72026-02-2027.04-3.614-11.79%-1.32
−32026-02-2533.05+2.394+7.81%+0.87
−12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0341.29+10.636+34.69%+3.88
+72026-03-0648.07+17.412+56.80%+6.35
+142026-03-1356.03+25.378+82.78%+9.26
+302026-03-3056.07+25.418+82.91%+9.28
+602026-04-2958.29+27.632+90.14%+10.08
+902026-05-2943.07+12.418+40.51%+4.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

Sors
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Mhux magħruf
Perjodu 2026-01Aġġornat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCKunfidenzaMhux magħrufaMetodoloġijaNiżżel is-CSV

T0: 28/02/2026. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
DimensjoniStatusĊifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.Osservat
0 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.Osservat
0.8658 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.Osservat
190.3 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-0.07% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.00 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.Osservat
121.9 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+70.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +36.70 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.Mhux disponibbliIl-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.Mhux disponibbliM’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.Mhux disponibbliIn-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.Osservat
3,844,000 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-0.98% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -0.27 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.Mhux disponibbliIs-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.Osservat
0.9103 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+41.75% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +5.54 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.Osservat
2.049 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+19.65% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +5.33 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Finlandja, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra.

2026-03-232026-05-25-250255075100c/l mill-ġimgħa ta’ referenza
  • Bidla attwali mingħajr taxxi(prezzijiet uffiċjali)
  • X’kien jagħmel iż-żejt mhux maħdum waħdu(ikkalkulat, bil-firxa)
  • Imdellel: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum(mhux attribwit lil ebda kawża)

Il-bidliet jitkejlu minn din il-ġimgħa tal-bullettin: 2026-02-23. Ir-reazzjoni għaż-żejt mhux maħdum hija meħuda mill-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet (tieqa: l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin (2023-09-25 – 2026-09-14)). Il-faxxa ċara hija firxa konservattiva, mhux intervall ta’ 90%. Iż-żona mdella: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Il-marġnijiet tar-raffinar, in-noli, il-marġnijiet tal-bejgħ bl-imnut u l-iżball tal-mudell huma kollha ġo fiha, u l-ebda wieħed minnhom ma jissemma bħala l-kawża tagħha.

  • Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) b’+23.7 c/l (firxa +11.5–+35.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+32.1 c/l, u jibqa’ +8.4 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.
  • Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) b’+52.5 c/l (firxa +16.9–+88.2); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+37.8 c/l, u jibqa’ -14.8 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

  1. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+27.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8153151936653386
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    1.9778651883897702
    t0_value
    0.6421641614306407
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    26.963671072665374
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.579262379859465
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.17315103223469785
    change_pct_from_t0
    26.963671072665374
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    7.533303851762906
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.579262379859465
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8153151936653386
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    1.9778651883897702
    t0_value
    0.6421641614306407
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    26.963671072665374
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.579262379859465
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.17315103223469785
    change_pct_from_t0
    26.963671072665374
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    7.533303851762906
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.579262379859465

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 05b46169d712ae15575f0629d72f80958445a16c8c10f30cf82b9cf3008c6e40 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  2. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+41.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’5.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9102554327091636
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    3.448909074460552
    t0_value
    0.6421641614306407
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    41.74808987802399
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.54180352996837
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.26809127127852295
    change_pct_from_t0
    41.74808987802399
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    7.533303851762906
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.54180352996837
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9102554327091636
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    3.448909074460552
    t0_value
    0.6421641614306407
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    41.74808987802399
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.54180352996837
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.26809127127852295
    change_pct_from_t0
    41.74808987802399
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    7.533303851762906
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.54180352996837

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 432dce0ab908ae5d6852de4dd81aa219741beb3ac7b632d3619b350ed82ff03a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  3. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+58.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’7.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0198171856972111
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.14650483052208
    t0_value
    0.6421641614306407
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    58.809420853574096
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.8065908412564315
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.37765302426657044
    change_pct_from_t0
    58.809420853574096
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    7.533303851762906
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.8065908412564315
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0198171856972111
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.14650483052208
    t0_value
    0.6421641614306407
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    58.809420853574096
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.8065908412564315
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.37765302426657044
    change_pct_from_t0
    58.809420853574096
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    7.533303851762906
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.8065908412564315

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6c80699a599620b2233964b6394bb2fb87e06d8a54680c791dfb8d0702a6e7c2 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  4. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+12.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.9298499999999998
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    2.0969326688790657
    t0_value
    1.7125454545454544
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    12.68897972183884
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.44244240942622
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21730454545454547
    change_pct_from_t0
    12.68897972183884
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.6860397975267265
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.44244240942622
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.9298499999999998
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    2.0969326688790657
    t0_value
    1.7125454545454544
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    12.68897972183884
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.44244240942622
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21730454545454547
    change_pct_from_t0
    12.68897972183884
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.6860397975267265
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.44244240942622

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 3f91bc9981b14a6a75b3b40a5db65be32b63e2d274e1555ced810226b2ae721c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  5. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+19.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’5.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.0490000000000004
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    3.5310272977915975
    t0_value
    1.7125454545454544
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    19.64645928442513
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.329963962301109
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.336454545454546
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.64645928442513
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.6860397975267265
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.329963962301109
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.0490000000000004
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    3.5310272977915975
    t0_value
    1.7125454545454544
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    19.64645928442513
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    5.329963962301109
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.336454545454546
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.64645928442513
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.6860397975267265
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    5.329963962301109

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 200931884eb2d7fba401826feb68a7d5b4c13ce994facd02527c065f2505f843 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  6. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+27.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’7.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.1865
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.185983331996145
    t0_value
    1.7125454545454544
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    27.675443252999276
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.508178091720294
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.47395454545454574
    change_pct_from_t0
    27.675443252999276
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.6860397975267265
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.508178091720294
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.1865
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.185983331996145
    t0_value
    1.7125454545454544
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    27.675443252999276
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.508178091720294
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.47395454545454574
    change_pct_from_t0
    27.675443252999276
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.6860397975267265
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.508178091720294

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 91423005cb620ff63b58882940f7e553c73e5749e0d96a34e1597458943f791b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  7. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+19.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0439844320318725
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    1.9042533927646383
    t0_value
    0.8742705602462872
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    19.412053831227702
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.021265042141774
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.16971387178558528
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.412053831227702
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    6.425140979179536
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.021265042141774
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0439844320318725
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    1.9042533927646383
    t0_value
    0.8742705602462872
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    19.412053831227702
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.021265042141774
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.16971387178558528
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.412053831227702
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    6.425140979179536
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.021265042141774

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5f582a29072c2b094f5d30380d4b687b7029cfd742955ae3f7f67a31c38ad0c3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  8. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+48.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’7.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.2985262647011948
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.32484328006132
    t0_value
    0.8742705602462872
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    48.526820385601475
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.552646789051179
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.42425570445490757
    change_pct_from_t0
    48.526820385601475
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    6.425140979179536
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.552646789051179
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.2985262647011948
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.32484328006132
    t0_value
    0.8742705602462872
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    48.526820385601475
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.552646789051179
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.42425570445490757
    change_pct_from_t0
    48.526820385601475
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    6.425140979179536
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.552646789051179

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 162497ab0af00d22f44f4e8e140f1294ac33eeb285312bd402fbea87feed36c4 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  9. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+52.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’8.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.336892798565737
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.8404213144120405
    t0_value
    0.8742705602462872
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    52.915225486847724
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.235652051576427
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.4626222383194498
    change_pct_from_t0
    52.915225486847724
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    6.425140979179536
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.235652051576427
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.336892798565737
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.8404213144120405
    t0_value
    0.8742705602462872
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    52.915225486847724
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.235652051576427
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.4626222383194498
    change_pct_from_t0
    52.915225486847724
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    6.425140979179536
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.235652051576427

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 58970a04f1497f263cc7b24af9717efc63f1689514828140ba80d7d24a0f7a43 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  10. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+12.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.9509
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    1.9938963012057103
    t0_value
    1.7379090909090906
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    12.255584035151982
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.0176196318205806
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21299090909090945
    change_pct_from_t0
    12.255584035151982
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.0613415640320385
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.0176196318205806
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.9509
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    1.9938963012057103
    t0_value
    1.7379090909090906
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    12.255584035151982
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.0176196318205806
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21299090909090945
    change_pct_from_t0
    12.255584035151982
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.0613415640320385
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.0176196318205806

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d9a462f09e1a1e7892d9a18345b8261e6b1daf9f21b4af139b1a4be3b69fd605 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  11. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+30.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’7.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.2703499999999996
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.314272087831578
    t0_value
    1.7379090909090906
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    30.636867709368623
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.543533885623942
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.532440909090909
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.636867709368623
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.0613415640320385
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.543533885623942
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.2703499999999996
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.314272087831578
    t0_value
    1.7379090909090906
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    30.636867709368623
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.543533885623942
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.532440909090909
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.636867709368623
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.0613415640320385
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.543533885623942

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f8ba0d98888c33f755fcb84940b5aa7540cc34541a6b2b4de21e44aa2be4da63 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  12. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Finlandja) inbidel b’+33.4%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’8.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.3185000000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.8147450699134
    t0_value
    1.7379090909090906
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    33.40743840560761
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.225715044868378
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.5805909090909096
    change_pct_from_t0
    33.40743840560761
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.0613415640320385
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.225715044868378
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.3185000000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    z_score
    5.8147450699134
    t0_value
    1.7379090909090906
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    33.40743840560761
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_FI_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.225715044868378
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.5805909090909096
    change_pct_from_t0
    33.40743840560761
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.0613415640320385
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.225715044868378

    Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e634c693dc399a8b171167c576409ac815fe82f13747ab3d715d0c61e023ad38 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  13. Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) b’+23.7 c/l (firxa +11.5–+35.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+32.1 c/l, u jibqa’ +8.4 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Finland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    0
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.08371371140777029
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.32068091271278554
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.23696720130501525
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1154666675695677
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.3584677350404597
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Finland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    0
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.08371371140777029
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.32068091271278554
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.23696720130501525
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1154666675695677
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.3584677350404597
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 710a03d18082190b1c5d8418b4d937ac74f63d955472e8a6ec50f25beb310c49 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  14. Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Finlandja) b’+52.5 c/l (firxa +16.9–+88.2); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+37.8 c/l, u jibqa’ -14.8 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Finland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    0
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.1476935508416385
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.37765302426657044
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.5253465751082089
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.16872408077814738
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.8819690694382594
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Finland
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    0
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.1476935508416385
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.37765302426657044
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.5253465751082089
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.16872408077814738
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.8819690694382594
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4061673ad0df3d7904c4525c066c8826ff4b681db36bab2a123c713f4e025bf5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  15. X’kienu jagħmlu l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom lill-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Finlandja) fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”) huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: La l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet u lanqas il-kampjun kollu m’għandhom stima IKKALKULATA għal dan il-pajjiż u karburant (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5): m’hemm l-ebda reazzjoni mkejla għaż-żejt mhux maħdum x’tiġi proġettata. Ma jintuża l-ebda sostitut bħal trażmissjoni sħiħa (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    UNKNOWN
    country
    Finland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    proxy_product
    null
    gap_eur_per_litre
    null
    actual_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_eur_per_litre
    null
    proxy_volatility_units
    null
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    null
    pass_through_window_label
    null
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    null
    Limiti
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    UNKNOWN
    country
    Finland
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_FI_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    proxy_product
    null
    statement_topic
    event
    gap_eur_per_litre
    null
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_eur_per_litre
    null
    proxy_volatility_units
    null
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    null
    pass_through_window_label
    null
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    null

    Mudell event.crude_only.unknown v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d4657c94b4114259a30e46efb2bdc6b12f4aaff524dfd295e7b7fa48ed301324 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  16. Il-Finlandja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (0%).

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaInferit · kunfidenza medjaBaxxa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.dependence.point v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f6fe7e45d4a731f42d520dc6000d7146784051ed847bf576c9e6979b620ef569 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  17. Il-Finlandja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet moderata (9%–13%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatMedja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Finland
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    value_max_pct
    13.0597014925373
    value_min_pct
    8.95522388059701
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Finland
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    value_max_pct
    13.0597014925373
    value_min_pct
    8.95522388059701
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6706da7abcbea6e0a865446edffcea90585bd6a24c83a7163aef83dcaf875071 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  18. Jekk il-provvista taż-żejt mhux maħdum (il-Finlandja, Frar 2026) naqset fiżikament huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: iż-żero rrappurtat għal dak ix-xahar mhuwiex ippubblikat (rekords oħra jikkontradixxuh).

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Finland
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    value_tonnes
    null
    missing_reason
    zero_contradicted
    baseline_months
    1
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    crude_imports_rule
    crude_imports_total-1.1
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    607000
    baseline_window_months
    12
    value_not_published_code
    REPORTED_ZERO_CONTRADICTED
    baseline_not_published_months
    11
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    1
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Finland
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    value_tonnes
    null
    missing_reason
    zero_contradicted
    baseline_months
    1
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    crude_imports_rule
    crude_imports_total-1.1
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    607000
    baseline_window_months
    12
    value_not_published_code
    REPORTED_ZERO_CONTRADICTED
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    baseline_not_published_months
    11

    Mudell event.supply.unknown v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e75190d9955a9a564761f8b64795d4e8e237e9be7140e32525b387955b3a9527 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  19. Frar 2026: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (il-Finlandja) kienu 3.3% aktar baxxi meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 190.4 (kif ippubblikati).

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_FI
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    days_of_cover
    190.414
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -2.584692597239649
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    3882000
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    4015250
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -3.3185978457132186
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    -3.3185978457132186
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    -3.3
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Finland
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_FI
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    days_of_cover
    190.414
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -2.584692597239649
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    3882000
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    4015250
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -3.3185978457132186
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 7545ad456fed6df356a821e950d73a9536b3fb86230347a0c9688f3a95bda0c1 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  20. Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn

    Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (il-Finlandja) madwar l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet limitata (0–0%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

    pajjiż: il-FinlandjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Finland
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    dependence_band
    limited
    dependence_range
    0–0%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Finland
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    FI
    country_name
    Finland
    country_slug
    finland
    dependence_band
    limited
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    0–0%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 02e1e09d291e0a145550a7b091058ccdc147fe2d4b87d97fb713807c1f439957 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  21. Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+34.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  22. Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+70.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’36.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  23. Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+30.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    Limiti
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224

    Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  24. Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  25. Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  26. Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

  27. Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

    dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
    Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
    Varjabbli
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Limiti
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

  • Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
  • Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
  • Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
  • Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Il-Finlandja: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

  • UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
  • IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
  • IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
  • Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
  • Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.