Avvenimenti / Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu

Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)

Dati: 28/02/2026 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Istrett ta’ Hormuz / il-Golf Persjan

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Ivverifikat

Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1

Dokumenti tas-sors (7)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Il-Greċja, Diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi). Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 16; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 4.

Qari ppubblikat: 184; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 24; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 52. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	71.00	-0.320	-0.45%	-0.23
−14	2026-02-13	69.96	-1.360	-1.91%	-0.99
−7	2026-02-20	72.75	+1.430	+2.01%	+1.04
−3	2026-02-25	70.69	-0.630	-0.88%	-0.46
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	83.28	+11.960	+16.77%	+8.68
+7	2026-03-06	95.74	+24.420	+34.24%	+17.72
+14	2026-03-13	103.2	+31.910	+44.74%	+23.16
+30	2026-03-30	121.9	+50.560	+70.89%	+36.70
+60	2026-04-29	124.2	+52.840	+74.09%	+38.35
+90	2026-05-29	92.88	+21.560	+30.23%	+15.65

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 756). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	1,951,828	+3,641	+0.19%	+0.01
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,948,187	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,948,187	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,948,187	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,948,187	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1,948,187	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	1,972,924	+24,737	+1.27%	+0.07
+3	2026-03-01	1,972,924	+24,737	+1.27%	+0.07
+7	2026-03-01	1,972,924	+24,737	+1.27%	+0.07
+14	2026-03-01	1,972,924	+24,737	+1.27%	+0.07
+30	2026-03-01	1,972,924	+24,737	+1.27%	+0.07
+60	2026-04-01	1,823,879	-124,308	-6.38%	-0.36
+90	2026-05-01	1,921,393	-26,794	-1.38%	-0.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 17.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.7992	-0.025	-3.02%	-1.15
−14	2026-02-09	0.8138	-0.010	-1.24%	-0.47
−7	2026-02-16	0.8176	-0.006	-0.79%	-0.30
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.8464	+0.022	+2.71%	+1.03
+7	2026-03-02	0.8464	+0.022	+2.71%	+1.03
+14	2026-03-09	0.9222	+0.098	+11.91%	+4.54
+30	2026-03-30	1.167	+0.343	+41.58%	+15.84
+60	2026-04-27	1.196	+0.372	+45.09%	+17.17
+90	2026-05-25	1.237	+0.413	+50.08%	+19.07

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.63%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	1.197	+0.016	+1.38%	+3.12
−14	2026-02-13	1.186	+0.006	+0.48%	+1.09
−7	2026-02-20	1.177	-0.004	-0.32%	-0.73
−3	2026-02-25	1.178	-0.002	-0.18%	-0.40
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	1.161	-0.020	-1.69%	-3.81
+7	2026-03-06	1.156	-0.024	-2.07%	-4.67
+14	2026-03-13	1.148	-0.033	-2.79%	-6.29
+30	2026-03-30	1.148	-0.032	-2.72%	-6.14
+60	2026-04-29	1.171	-0.010	-0.84%	-1.89
+90	2026-05-29	1.164	-0.016	-1.36%	-3.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.44%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 765). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	44.29–51.97	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01	33.60–41.02	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01	33.60–41.02	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01	33.60–41.02	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01	33.60–41.02	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01	33.60–41.02	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	29.29–48.80	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	29.29–48.80	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	29.29–48.80	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	29.29–48.80	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	29.29–48.80	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	15.14–28.73	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	15.00–18.78	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01	0–36.65	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01	0–36.65	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01	0–36.65	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01	0–36.65	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01	0–36.65	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	0–29.22	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	0–29.22	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	0–29.22	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	0–29.22	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	0–29.22	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	0–25.95	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	95.33	-6.880	-6.73%	-0.81
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	102.2	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	102.2	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	102.2	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	102.2	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	102.2	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	105.7	+3.521	+3.44%	+0.42
+3	2026-03-01	105.7	+3.521	+3.44%	+0.42
+7	2026-03-01	105.7	+3.521	+3.44%	+0.42
+14	2026-03-01	105.7	+3.521	+3.44%	+0.42
+30	2026-03-01	105.7	+3.521	+3.44%	+0.42
+60	2026-04-01	99.08	-3.131	-3.06%	-0.37
+90	2026-05-01	95.03	-7.184	-7.03%	-0.85

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.29%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.3714	-0.009	-2.40%	-0.66
−14	2026-02-09	0.3742	-0.006	-1.68%	-0.46
−7	2026-02-16	0.3817	+0.001	+0.29%	+0.08
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+7	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+14	2026-03-09	0.5233	+0.143	+37.50%	+10.24
+30	2026-03-30	0.6763	+0.296	+77.69%	+21.21
+60	2026-04-27	0.6445	+0.264	+69.35%	+18.93
+90	2026-05-25	0.5248	+0.144	+37.88%	+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	3,877,211	-325,752	-7.75%	-1.54
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	4,202,963	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	4,202,963	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	4,202,963	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	4,202,963	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	4,202,963	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	4,438,924	+235,961	+5.61%	+1.12
+3	2026-03-01	4,438,924	+235,961	+5.61%	+1.12
+7	2026-03-01	4,438,924	+235,961	+5.61%	+1.12
+14	2026-03-01	4,438,924	+235,961	+5.61%	+1.12
+30	2026-03-01	4,438,924	+235,961	+5.61%	+1.12
+60	2026-04-01	4,296,148	+93,185	+2.22%	+0.44
+90	2026-05-01	4,288,445	+85,482	+2.03%	+0.41

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 5.02%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.0096	+0.010	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-09	0.0070	+0.007	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-16	0.0049	+0.005	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-02	-0.0014	-0.001	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-02	-0.0014	-0.001	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-09	0.1164	+0.116	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-30	0.1170	+0.117	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-27	-0.1046	-0.105	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-25	-0.1973	-0.197	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	1.529	-0.019	-1.23%	-1.15
−14	2026-02-09	1.544	-0.004	-0.26%	-0.24
−7	2026-02-16	1.546	-0.002	-0.13%	-0.12
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.548	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.548	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.548	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.548	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	1.574	+0.026	+1.68%	+1.57
+7	2026-03-02	1.574	+0.026	+1.68%	+1.57
+14	2026-03-09	1.814	+0.266	+17.18%	+16.10
+30	2026-03-30	2.118	+0.570	+36.82%	+34.50
+60	2026-04-27	1.879	+0.331	+21.38%	+20.03
+90	2026-05-25	1.815	+0.267	+17.25%	+16.16

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.07%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.8087	-0.015	-1.86%	-1.17
−14	2026-02-09	0.8208	-0.003	-0.39%	-0.25
−7	2026-02-16	0.8224	-0.002	-0.20%	-0.12
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.8241	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.8450	+0.021	+2.54%	+1.61
+7	2026-03-02	0.8450	+0.021	+2.54%	+1.61
+14	2026-03-09	1.039	+0.215	+26.03%	+16.43
+30	2026-03-30	1.284	+0.460	+55.78%	+35.21
+60	2026-04-27	1.091	+0.267	+32.39%	+20.45
+90	2026-05-25	1.039	+0.215	+26.13%	+16.49

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.58%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.7203	-0.004	-0.51%	-1.12
−14	2026-02-09	0.7232	-0.001	-0.11%	-0.24
−7	2026-02-16	0.7236	-0.000	-0.05%	-0.12
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7239	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7239	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7239	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7239	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.7290	+0.005	+0.70%	+1.53
+7	2026-03-02	0.7290	+0.005	+0.70%	+1.53
+14	2026-03-09	0.7754	+0.051	+7.11%	+15.68
+30	2026-03-30	0.8343	+0.110	+15.24%	+33.59
+60	2026-04-27	0.7880	+0.064	+8.85%	+19.51
+90	2026-05-25	0.7756	+0.052	+7.14%	+15.74

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.45%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	32.03	-9.466	-22.81%	-3.77
−14	2026-02-13	32.27	-9.224	-22.23%	-3.68
−7	2026-02-20	37.84	-3.656	-8.81%	-1.46
−3	2026-02-25	43.84	+2.352	+5.67%	+0.94
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	52.13	+10.636	+25.63%	+4.24
+7	2026-03-06	58.90	+17.412	+41.96%	+6.94
+14	2026-03-13	66.83	+25.336	+61.06%	+10.10
+30	2026-03-30	66.87	+25.376	+61.16%	+10.12
+60	2026-04-29	54.93	+13.436	+32.38%	+5.36
+90	2026-05-29	55.17	+13.678	+32.97%	+5.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 6.05%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	19.97	+4.100	+25.83%	+0.93
−14	2026-02-13	10.43	-5.444	-34.30%	-1.23
−7	2026-02-20	11.42	-4.454	-28.06%	-1.00
−3	2026-02-25	13.39	-2.478	-15.61%	-0.56
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	19.87	+4.000	+25.20%	+0.90
+7	2026-03-06	20.56	+4.686	+29.52%	+1.06
+14	2026-03-13	25.33	+9.460	+59.60%	+2.13
+30	2026-03-30	21.09	+5.216	+32.86%	+1.18
+60	2026-04-29	34.94	+19.064	+120.11%	+4.30
+90	2026-05-29	41.27	+25.396	+160.01%	+5.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	23.42	-7.240	-23.62%	-2.64
−14	2026-02-13	21.47	-9.182	-29.95%	-3.35
−7	2026-02-20	27.04	-3.614	-11.79%	-1.32
−3	2026-02-25	33.05	+2.394	+7.81%	+0.87
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	41.29	+10.636	+34.69%	+3.88
+7	2026-03-06	48.07	+17.412	+56.80%	+6.35
+14	2026-03-13	56.03	+25.378	+82.78%	+9.26
+30	2026-03-30	56.07	+25.418	+82.91%	+9.28
+60	2026-04-29	58.29	+27.632	+90.14%	+10.08
+90	2026-05-29	43.07	+12.418	+40.51%	+4.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 28/02/2026. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	29.29–48.80 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	0–29.22 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	105.7 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)+3.44% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +0.42 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	121.9 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+70.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +36.70 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	4,438,924 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)+5.61% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +1.12 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	1.284 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+55.78% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +35.21 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	2.118 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+36.82% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +34.50 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Greċja, diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra.

Il-paragun maż-żejt mhux maħdum biss ma setax jinqara.

API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'greece'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+2.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.7015954838709678
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
1.1802399073958523
t0_value
0.6862729032258064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.232724120847275
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.3143411309834614
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.015322580645161454
change_pct_from_t0
2.232724120847275
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.698740203904773
change_in_volatility_units
1.3143411309834614
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.7015954838709678
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
1.1802399073958523
t0_value
0.6862729032258064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
2.232724120847275
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.3143411309834614
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.015322580645161454
change_pct_from_t0
2.232724120847275
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.698740203904773
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.3143411309834614
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0cc7ac3c2402ac4d13ffe735b8ef3d41acb72a59cb9e3153f44d1783dd4b5c8d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+36.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’21.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.9346599999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
14.585497545546872
t0_value
0.6862729032258064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
36.19363311689228
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.30616149173167
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.24838709677419357
change_pct_from_t0
36.19363311689228
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.698740203904773
change_in_volatility_units
21.30616149173167
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.9346599999999999
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
14.585497545546872
t0_value
0.6862729032258064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
36.19363311689228
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.30616149173167
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.24838709677419357
change_pct_from_t0
36.19363311689228
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.698740203904773
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
21.30616149173167
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ef8fabd8ad90a17510ce52a89cbab0883386f4f0f1d31e21d166ad5b97f7dc36 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+46.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’27.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0072406451612903
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
18.760145252929547
t0_value
0.6862729032258064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
46.76969474195821
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
27.531987901653267
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.32096774193548394
change_pct_from_t0
46.76969474195821
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.698740203904773
change_in_volatility_units
27.531987901653267
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0072406451612903
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
18.760145252929547
t0_value
0.6862729032258064
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
46.76969474195821
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
27.531987901653267
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.32096774193548394
change_pct_from_t0
46.76969474195821
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.698740203904773
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
27.531987901653267
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b601a1ca17b791dc23117af11f6590e76310b8d581bea8bbfa009ce88fb6f7c9 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+1.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.2 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.7570000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
1.1802399073958496
t0_value
1.738
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.0932105868814803
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2291124560024265
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.019000000000000128
change_pct_from_t0
1.0932105868814803
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
0.8894308910000357
change_in_volatility_units
1.2291124560024265
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.7570000000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
1.1802399073958496
t0_value
1.738
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
1.0932105868814803
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.2291124560024265
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.019000000000000128
change_pct_from_t0
1.0932105868814803
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
0.8894308910000357
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.2291124560024265
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 3e9961a1d8ee7e0ce82a139d0480cb84c0c4d5a0b547f55fe859b62944acdaee · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+17.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’19.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.0460000000000003
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
14.585497545546884
t0_value
1.738
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
17.72151898734179
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.92455981309185
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.3080000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
17.72151898734179
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
0.8894308910000357
change_in_volatility_units
19.92455981309185
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.0460000000000003
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
14.585497545546884
t0_value
1.738
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
17.72151898734179
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.92455981309185
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.3080000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
17.72151898734179
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
0.8894308910000357
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
19.92455981309185
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9dca48b5d64ec5137d2760992254e150a03ed7c2119f18b286614306aea70889 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+22.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’25.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.136
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
18.76014525292955
t0_value
1.738
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
22.899884925201388
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
25.746671446787502
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.39800000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
22.899884925201388
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
0.8894308910000357
change_in_volatility_units
25.746671446787502
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.136
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
18.76014525292955
t0_value
1.738
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
22.899884925201388
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
25.746671446787502
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.39800000000000013
change_pct_from_t0
22.899884925201388
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
0.8894308910000357
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
25.746671446787502
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c99da52a7945d5435d3a60b6171fb457658442895db87f38b2cb6ce536f4b7d2 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+2.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8450248387096774
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
1.1863217033128732
t0_value
0.8240570967741937
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.5444525649451704
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.6061679039888994
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.020967741935483675
change_pct_from_t0
2.5444525649451704
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.5841759498655477
change_in_volatility_units
1.6061679039888994
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8450248387096774
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
1.1863217033128732
t0_value
0.8240570967741937
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
2.5444525649451704
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.6061679039888994
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.020967741935483675
change_pct_from_t0
2.5444525649451704
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.5841759498655477
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.6061679039888994
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f2aedbf0bdc8d75ad1a5baf44770e0b1272d6b123b0e6e777d2a08d04313b027 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+55.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’35.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.2837345161290323
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
20.292344925088667
t0_value
0.8240570967741937
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
55.78222930841386
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
35.21214251052619
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.45967741935483863
change_pct_from_t0
55.78222930841386
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.5841759498655477
change_in_volatility_units
35.21214251052619
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.2837345161290323
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
20.292344925088667
t0_value
0.8240570967741937
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
55.78222930841386
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
35.21214251052619
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.45967741935483863
change_pct_from_t0
55.78222930841386
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.5841759498655477
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
35.21214251052619
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 26c05287ad2681df2e361d9b001f7afef46c8edf838f058f4ad28827b29b4edd · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+26.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’16.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0393796774193549
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
9.650570961489283
t0_value
0.8240570967741937
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
26.129570570783326
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
16.494108860193844
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2153225806451612
change_pct_from_t0
26.129570570783326
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.5841759498655477
change_in_volatility_units
16.494108860193844
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.0393796774193549
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
9.650570961489283
t0_value
0.8240570967741937
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
26.129570570783326
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
16.494108860193844
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2153225806451612
change_pct_from_t0
26.129570570783326
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.5841759498655477
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
16.494108860193844
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 962eaa8e9563b19e0048835b16d9050e1741520bfbf2a6a52171178036f5588e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+1.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’1.6 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.574
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
1.1863217033128837
t0_value
1.548
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.679586563307495
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.5736956668870277
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.026000000000000023
change_pct_from_t0
1.679586563307495
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.0672880396436073
change_in_volatility_units
1.5736956668870277
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.574
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
1.1863217033128837
t0_value
1.548
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.679586563307495
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
1.5736956668870277
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.026000000000000023
change_pct_from_t0
1.679586563307495
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.0672880396436073
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
1.5736956668870277
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 842b3c431457fcca786ba2ef7a5f4ae0dd2c009da98c12562725f484b048418d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+36.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’34.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.118
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
20.292344925088724
t0_value
1.548
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
36.82170542635658
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
34.50025115867711
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.5699999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
36.82170542635658
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.0672880396436073
change_in_volatility_units
34.50025115867711
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
2.118
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
20.292344925088724
t0_value
1.548
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
36.82170542635658
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
34.50025115867711
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.5699999999999998
change_pct_from_t0
36.82170542635658
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.0672880396436073
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
34.50025115867711
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d0c6d1db3372102e064ab203dd57232e232642ab93a7cb42b1ab18996e6efe5d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Greċja) inbidel b’+17.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’16.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.815
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
9.650570961489311
t0_value
1.548
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
17.24806201550387
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
16.16064396380138
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2669999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
17.24806201550387
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.0672880396436073
change_in_volatility_units
16.16064396380138
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.815
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
z_score
9.650570961489311
t0_value
1.548
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
17.24806201550387
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
16.16064396380138
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2669999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
17.24806201550387
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.0672880396436073
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
16.16064396380138
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e4ef76509a1d175536f27b3bb4f0cfc5be9d7b2166aad36e8b55984b164c3dc5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Greċja) b’+17.2 c/l (firxa +12.4–+21.9); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+24.1 c/l, u jibqa’ +7.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Greece
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.06957307051704384
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.2411290322580646
expected_eur_per_litre
0.17155596174102075
proxy_volatility_units
2.8999750350600633
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
9.9
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.12394061628240238
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.2191713071996393
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Greece
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.06957307051704384
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.2411290322580646
expected_eur_per_litre
0.17155596174102075
proxy_volatility_units
2.8999750350600633
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
9.9
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.12394061628240238
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.2191713071996393
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 9a0463a9563298758cc244e35219880b6e57ff1c58710784b37d27fc7c2e748c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Greċja) b’+22.7 c/l (firxa +8.5–+36.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+32.1 c/l, u jibqa’ +9.4 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Greece
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
0.09446012515545424
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.32096774193548394
expected_eur_per_litre
0.2265076167800297
proxy_volatility_units
7.918982333112501
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.034
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.08497241419909017
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3680428193609684
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Greece
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
0.09446012515545424
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.32096774193548394
expected_eur_per_litre
0.2265076167800297
proxy_volatility_units
7.918982333112501
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.034
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.08497241419909017
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3680428193609684
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d57bf5e48e1e377078ac5416206bf2593718b6cbef9173be9e5bf7311b270519 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Greċja) b’+29.1 c/l (firxa +18.3–+39.9); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+40.9 c/l, u jibqa’ +11.8 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’28.8 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Greece
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.11810921933314578
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.40887096774193543
expected_eur_per_litre
0.29076174840878966
proxy_volatility_units
10.98407307729496
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
28.757999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.18274970394063797
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.39877379287694037
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Greece
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.11810921933314578
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.40887096774193543
expected_eur_per_litre
0.29076174840878966
proxy_volatility_units
10.98407307729496
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
28.757999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.18274970394063797
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.39877379287694037
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a500e0087ff783dcc4dcf1fd0334e26e3ded2da4f02462a3b5bd7abe4749b2b7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Greċja) b’+41.3 c/l (firxa +11.3–+71.2); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+21.5 c/l, u jibqa’ -19.7 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’16.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Greece
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.19732976895554094
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.2153225806451612
expected_eur_per_litre
0.41265234960070213
proxy_volatility_units
6.106591569642946
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
15.988
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.11331982308685998
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.711984876114543
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Greece
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.19732976895554094
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.2153225806451612
expected_eur_per_litre
0.41265234960070213
proxy_volatility_units
6.106591569642946
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
15.988
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.11331982308685998
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.711984876114543
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8cecbed9bd7e22bf916c48641f419763575a63b392197ef55eeb2048c1fb07d0 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Il-Greċja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet konsiderevoli (34%–41%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
significant
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Greece
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
value_max_pct
41.0198271521163
value_min_pct
33.5994847517204
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
significant
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Greece
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
value_max_pct
41.0198271521163
value_min_pct
33.5994847517204
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f87a089a1f617bd8f7d11bf751c54f6784cd27f9becfbb32a0ba81ad6eedd6ed · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Il-Greċja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet konsiderevoli (0%–37%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
significant
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Greece
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
value_max_pct
36.6486799969742
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
significant
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Greece
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
value_max_pct
36.6486799969742
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
PARTIAL
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c309f21384182ebc68453e271f9e5f327bd6ab2bcc4f1505e79e9b26ee8673ce · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (il-Greċja, Frar 2026) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): +10.1%.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Greece
change_pct
10.077779700961463
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
value_tonnes
1948187
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
1769827.6666666667
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
0
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Greece
change_pct
10.077779700961463
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
value_tonnes
1948187
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
1769827.6666666667
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
0
Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ae564d43fdb8d54fbed1754e8dc4d2e75ab4f5cb879f76976bc9db40c462e97f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Frar 2026: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (il-Greċja) kienu 1.8% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 102.2 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: il-GreċjaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_GR
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
days_of_cover
102.212
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
8.401709373051919
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
4202963
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
4128319.75
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
1.808078213902884
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
1.808078213902884
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
1.8
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Greece
direction
above
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_GR
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
days_of_cover
102.212
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
8.401709373051919
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
4202963
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
4128319.75
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
1.808078213902884
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0d65819cc6e69f06948bf3d015cf17fb91dea50fa22ff9ec944c1f60ca4a3f87 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (il-Greċja) madwar l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet konsiderevoli (34–41%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: il-GreċjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Greece
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
dependence_band
significant
dependence_range
34–41%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Greece
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
GR
country_name
Greece
country_slug
greece
dependence_band
significant
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
34–41%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 1f8d66591bab12a716633befd8014e4d75950c43c0e26dad7682bf26b5135bbe · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+34.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+70.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’36.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+30.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Il-Greċja: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Greċja, diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

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Limiti

Inputs

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