Avvenimenti / Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu

Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)

Dati: 28/02/2026 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Istrett ta’ Hormuz / il-Golf Persjan

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Ivverifikat

Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1

Dokumenti tas-sors (7)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

L-Ungerija, Diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi). Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 16; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 4.

Qari ppubblikat: 185; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 23; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 52. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	71.00	-0.320	-0.45%	-0.23
−14	2026-02-13	69.96	-1.360	-1.91%	-0.99
−7	2026-02-20	72.75	+1.430	+2.01%	+1.04
−3	2026-02-25	70.69	-0.630	-0.88%	-0.46
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	71.32	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	83.28	+11.960	+16.77%	+8.68
+7	2026-03-06	95.74	+24.420	+34.24%	+17.72
+14	2026-03-13	103.2	+31.910	+44.74%	+23.16
+30	2026-03-30	121.9	+50.560	+70.89%	+36.70
+60	2026-04-29	124.2	+52.840	+74.09%	+38.35
+90	2026-05-29	92.88	+21.560	+30.23%	+15.65

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 756). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	192,800	+192,800	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	141,900	+141,900	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	141,900	+141,900	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	141,900	+141,900	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	141,900	+141,900	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	141,900	+141,900	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	333,500	+333,500	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	321,800	+321,800	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 30.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 34). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.7866	-0.011	-1.39%	-1.55
−14	2026-02-09	0.7926	-0.005	-0.64%	-0.71
−7	2026-02-16	0.7941	-0.004	-0.45%	-0.51
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7977	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7977	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7977	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7977	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.8016	+0.004	+0.49%	+0.54
+7	2026-03-02	0.8016	+0.004	+0.49%	+0.54
+14	2026-03-09	0.8438	+0.046	+5.78%	+6.46
+30	2026-03-30	0.9220	+0.124	+15.59%	+17.44
+60	2026-04-27	0.9395	+0.142	+17.78%	+19.90
+90	2026-05-25	0.9671	+0.169	+21.24%	+23.76

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.89%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatGħolja

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	1.197	+0.016	+1.38%	+3.12
−14	2026-02-13	1.186	+0.006	+0.48%	+1.09
−7	2026-02-20	1.177	-0.004	-0.32%	-0.73
−3	2026-02-25	1.178	-0.002	-0.18%	-0.40
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.181	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	1.161	-0.020	-1.69%	-3.81
+7	2026-03-06	1.156	-0.024	-2.07%	-4.67
+14	2026-03-13	1.148	-0.033	-2.79%	-6.29
+30	2026-03-30	1.148	-0.032	-2.72%	-6.14
+60	2026-04-29	1.171	-0.010	-0.84%	-1.89
+90	2026-05-29	1.164	-0.016	-1.36%	-3.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.44%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 765). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Il-linja tieqaf f’dawn il-punti tat-tieqa, fejn ma ġiet ippubblikata l-ebda ċifra fi żmien perjodu wieħed: −14, −7, −3, −1, T0. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab. Il-faxxa mdella hija l-firxa ammissibbli. Ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs: ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	0–37.50	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	0–37.50	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	0–37.50	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	0–37.50	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	0–37.50	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	0	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab. Il-faxxa mdella hija l-firxa ammissibbli. Ma jitpinġa l-ebda punt tan-nofs: ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu.

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	0–1.974	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-01	0–22.33	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-01	0–22.33	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-01	0–22.33	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-01	0–22.33	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-01	0–22.33	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-03-01	0–1.495	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-01	0–1.495	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-01	0–1.495	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-01	0–1.495	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-01	0–1.495	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-01	0–33.15	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-01	0–25.16	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	96.30	+4.787	+5.23%	+3.82
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.52	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.52	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.52	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.52	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	91.52	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	44.37	-47.149	-51.52%	-37.59
+3	2026-03-01	44.37	-47.149	-51.52%	-37.59
+7	2026-03-01	44.37	-47.149	-51.52%	-37.59
+14	2026-03-01	44.37	-47.149	-51.52%	-37.59
+30	2026-03-01	44.37	-47.149	-51.52%	-37.59
+60	2026-04-01	70.04	-21.473	-23.46%	-17.12
+90	2026-05-01	62.41	-29.106	-31.80%	-23.21

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.37%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 34). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.3714	-0.009	-2.40%	-0.66
−14	2026-02-09	0.3742	-0.006	-1.68%	-0.46
−7	2026-02-16	0.3817	+0.001	+0.29%	+0.08
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.3806	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+7	2026-03-02	0.4615	+0.081	+21.26%	+5.80
+14	2026-03-09	0.5233	+0.143	+37.50%	+10.24
+30	2026-03-30	0.6763	+0.296	+77.69%	+21.21
+60	2026-04-27	0.6445	+0.264	+69.35%	+18.93
+90	2026-05-25	0.5248	+0.144	+37.88%	+10.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-01	3,519,800	+144,500	+4.28%	+2.57
−14	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,375,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,375,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,375,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,375,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	3,375,300	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-03-01	3,186,300	-189,000	-5.60%	-3.36
+3	2026-03-01	3,186,300	-189,000	-5.60%	-3.36
+7	2026-03-01	3,186,300	-189,000	-5.60%	-3.36
+14	2026-03-01	3,186,300	-189,000	-5.60%	-3.36
+30	2026-03-01	3,186,300	-189,000	-5.60%	-3.36
+60	2026-04-01	3,232,400	-142,900	-4.23%	-2.54
+90	2026-05-01	3,314,600	-60,700	-1.80%	-1.08

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.67%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 34). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.0004	+0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2026-02-09	0.0027	+0.003	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2026-02-16	0.0040	+0.004	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2026-03-02	0.0052	+0.005	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2026-03-02	0.0052	+0.005	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2026-03-09	0.0269	+0.027	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2026-03-30	0.0119	+0.012	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2026-04-27	0.0385	+0.039	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2026-05-25	0.0398	+0.040	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	1.504	-0.016	-1.08%	-0.66
−14	2026-02-09	1.521	+0.000	+0.03%	+0.02
−7	2026-02-16	1.525	+0.004	+0.26%	+0.16
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.521	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.521	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.521	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.521	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	1.530	+0.009	+0.58%	+0.35
+7	2026-03-02	1.530	+0.009	+0.58%	+0.35
+14	2026-03-09	1.592	+0.071	+4.69%	+2.86
+30	2026-03-30	1.620	+0.099	+6.52%	+3.98
+60	2026-04-27	1.705	+0.184	+12.12%	+7.39
+90	2026-05-25	1.754	+0.233	+15.32%	+9.34

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.64%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatGħolja

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.7870	-0.011	-1.33%	-0.63
−14	2026-02-09	0.7953	-0.002	-0.30%	-0.14
−7	2026-02-16	0.7981	+0.000	+0.05%	+0.03
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7977	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7977	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7977	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7977	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.8068	+0.009	+1.14%	+0.54
+7	2026-03-02	0.8068	+0.009	+1.14%	+0.54
+14	2026-03-09	0.8707	+0.073	+9.16%	+4.31
+30	2026-03-30	0.9339	+0.136	+17.08%	+8.05
+60	2026-04-27	0.9780	+0.180	+22.61%	+10.65
+90	2026-05-25	1.007	+0.209	+26.22%	+12.36

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.12%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-26	0.7172	-0.006	-0.80%	-0.49
−14	2026-02-09	0.7259	+0.003	+0.39%	+0.24
−7	2026-02-16	0.7265	+0.004	+0.49%	+0.29
−3	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7230	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7230	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7230	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7230	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-02	0.7228	-0.000	-0.04%	-0.02
+7	2026-03-02	0.7228	-0.000	-0.04%	-0.02
+14	2026-03-09	0.7213	-0.002	-0.24%	-0.14
+30	2026-03-30	0.6859	-0.037	-5.13%	-3.12
+60	2026-04-27	0.7270	+0.004	+0.55%	+0.34
+90	2026-05-25	0.7468	+0.024	+3.29%	+2.00

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.65%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	32.03	-9.466	-22.81%	-3.77
−14	2026-02-13	32.27	-9.224	-22.23%	-3.68
−7	2026-02-20	37.84	-3.656	-8.81%	-1.46
−3	2026-02-25	43.84	+2.352	+5.67%	+0.94
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	41.49	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	52.13	+10.636	+25.63%	+4.24
+7	2026-03-06	58.90	+17.412	+41.96%	+6.94
+14	2026-03-13	66.83	+25.336	+61.06%	+10.10
+30	2026-03-30	66.87	+25.376	+61.16%	+10.12
+60	2026-04-29	54.93	+13.436	+32.38%	+5.36
+90	2026-05-29	55.17	+13.678	+32.97%	+5.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 6.05%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	19.97	+4.100	+25.83%	+0.93
−14	2026-02-13	10.43	-5.444	-34.30%	-1.23
−7	2026-02-20	11.42	-4.454	-28.06%	-1.00
−3	2026-02-25	13.39	-2.478	-15.61%	-0.56
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	15.87	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	19.87	+4.000	+25.20%	+0.90
+7	2026-03-06	20.56	+4.686	+29.52%	+1.06
+14	2026-03-13	25.33	+9.460	+59.60%	+2.13
+30	2026-03-30	21.09	+5.216	+32.86%	+1.18
+60	2026-04-29	34.94	+19.064	+120.11%	+4.30
+90	2026-05-29	41.27	+25.396	+160.01%	+5.73

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2026-01-29	23.42	-7.240	-23.62%	-2.64
−14	2026-02-13	21.47	-9.182	-29.95%	-3.35
−7	2026-02-20	27.04	-3.614	-11.79%	-1.32
−3	2026-02-25	33.05	+2.394	+7.81%	+0.87
−1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	30.66	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2026-03-03	41.29	+10.636	+34.69%	+3.88
+7	2026-03-06	48.07	+17.412	+56.80%	+6.35
+14	2026-03-13	56.03	+25.378	+82.78%	+9.26
+30	2026-03-30	56.07	+25.418	+82.91%	+9.28
+60	2026-04-29	58.29	+27.632	+90.14%	+10.08
+90	2026-05-29	43.07	+12.418	+40.51%	+4.53

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 28/02/2026. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	0–37.50 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	0–1.495 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2026-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	44.37 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-51.52% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -37.59 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	121.9 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+70.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +36.70 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	3,186,300 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-5.60% mil-livell ta’ T0 = -3.36 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	0.9339 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+17.08% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +8.05 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	1.620 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+6.52% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +3.98 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: l-Ungerija, diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra.

Il-paragun maż-żejt mhux maħdum biss ma setax jinqara.

API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'hungary'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+0.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.2 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.7280150305838874
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.5516184455969222
t0_value
0.7247263154342058
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.4537871855406785
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.2190230703318165
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0032887151496815425
change_pct_from_t0
0.4537871855406785
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.071869346243745
change_in_volatility_units
0.2190230703318165
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.7280150305838874
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.5516184455969222
t0_value
0.7247263154342058
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.4537871855406785
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.2190230703318165
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0032887151496815425
change_pct_from_t0
0.4537871855406785
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.071869346243745
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.2190230703318165
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 67bd46dca8d12032b47d07dba95125cb139d086e2ca1a2c1af61deef12a506e5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+16.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’7.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8429460621136303
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
7.780965775792415
t0_value
0.7247263154342058
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
16.312329794261075
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
7.873242501432332
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.11821974667942448
change_pct_from_t0
16.312329794261075
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.071869346243745
change_in_volatility_units
7.873242501432332
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.8429460621136303
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
7.780965775792415
t0_value
0.7247263154342058
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
16.312329794261075
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
7.873242501432332
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.11821974667942448
change_pct_from_t0
16.312329794261075
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.071869346243745
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
7.873242501432332
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d19a6013ee82b050b7e27cd4534a62a4143a7e472fc92d141dfae21592947f51 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+27.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’13.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.924100250148045
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
12.88569514950337
t0_value
0.7247263154342058
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
27.5102380675094
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
13.27797919177909
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.19937393471383913
change_pct_from_t0
27.5102380675094
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.071869346243745
change_in_volatility_units
13.27797919177909
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.924100250148045
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
12.88569514950337
t0_value
0.7247263154342058
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
27.5102380675094
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
13.27797919177909
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.19937393471383913
change_pct_from_t0
27.5102380675094
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.071869346243745
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
13.27797919177909
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ceb469fa72e9ed895d2befe21de546e257b85a194d6cacb28fa7ba206019bf6f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+0.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.1 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.4629233382520688
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.663741138542461
t0_value
1.461653572978631
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.08687183453806388
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.055364282283633985
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0012697652734376952
change_pct_from_t0
0.08687183453806388
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.5690952895047954
change_in_volatility_units
0.055364282283633985
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.4629233382520688
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
0.663741138542461
t0_value
1.461653572978631
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
0.08687183453806388
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.055364282283633985
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.0012697652734376952
change_pct_from_t0
0.08687183453806388
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.5690952895047954
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.055364282283633985
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ba4fa3fbd0307c6f29dfb40b37f4215507cd633579e26ad65065c3651d98cb3b · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+5.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.5377151517892462
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
3.8585507467607227
t0_value
1.461653572978631
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
5.203803433094823
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.316435571441386
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.07606157881061515
change_pct_from_t0
5.203803433094823
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.5690952895047954
change_in_volatility_units
3.316435571441386
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.5377151517892462
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
3.8585507467607227
t0_value
1.461653572978631
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
5.203803433094823
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.316435571441386
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.07606157881061515
change_pct_from_t0
5.203803433094823
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.5690952895047954
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.316435571441386
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 871e7dab739057815b62d38ee851abec7aa722c6fb2c183ffa6202db8561828d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+15.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’9.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.6848999392767652
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
10.145701051184727
t0_value
1.461653572978631
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
15.27354842660778
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
9.733983989862141
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2232463662981341
change_pct_from_t0
15.27354842660778
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.5690952895047954
change_in_volatility_units
9.733983989862141
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.6848999392767652
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
10.145701051184727
t0_value
1.461653572978631
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
15.27354842660778
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
9.733983989862141
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.2232463662981341
change_pct_from_t0
15.27354842660778
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.5690952895047954
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
9.733983989862141
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 2afea8621474a0963fbedba43bf2c9b8eb36972e4b0025bb66486e8d7abe456a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+1.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.5 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.80678821654971
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
1.813488709611505
t0_value
0.7976776624898618
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.1421347855486634
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.5382353747088172
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.009110554059848175
change_pct_from_t0
1.1421347855486634
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.121998737386135
change_in_volatility_units
0.5382353747088172
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.80678821654971
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
1.813488709611505
t0_value
0.7976776624898618
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
1.1421347855486634
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.5382353747088172
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.009110554059848175
change_pct_from_t0
1.1421347855486634
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.121998737386135
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.5382353747088172
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 866058ff9d37a806681c80689a2ca4fe38ac411a2763f0e2f57a8c6180dc9a41 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+17.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’8.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.9339381317518918
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
8.728256565276789
t0_value
0.7976776624898618
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
17.082146795575056
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
8.050026842436646
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.13626046926202995
change_pct_from_t0
17.082146795575056
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.121998737386135
change_in_volatility_units
8.050026842436646
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
0.9339381317518918
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
8.728256565276789
t0_value
0.7976776624898618
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
17.082146795575056
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
8.050026842436646
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.13626046926202995
change_pct_from_t0
17.082146795575056
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
2.121998737386135
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
8.050026842436646
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 55b9aa1db99e7c75691cf7af51787c789911f4827236afa50309777bd0a12ca8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+26.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’12.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.006844681442345
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
12.693118558817151
t0_value
0.7976776624898618
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
26.221997780355505
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
12.357216485743814
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.20916701895248324
change_pct_from_t0
26.221997780355505
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.121998737386135
change_in_volatility_units
12.357216485743814
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.006844681442345
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
12.693118558817151
t0_value
0.7976776624898618
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
26.221997780355505
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
12.357216485743814
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.20916701895248324
change_pct_from_t0
26.221997780355505
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
2.121998737386135
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
12.357216485743814
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 89b7e0b6b60a238d3a2f544609e6bb852611afb81c6db38d20fa27ae30bf35f0 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+0.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.5295599923144378
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
1.7591761697526118
t0_value
1.5207161127265392
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.5815601948244111
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3546994302773065
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.008843879587898673
change_pct_from_t0
0.5815601948244111
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.6395859287671912
change_in_volatility_units
0.3546994302773065
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.5295599923144378
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
1.7591761697526118
t0_value
1.5207161127265392
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
0.5815601948244111
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-02
same_observation
false
volatility_units
0.3546994302773065
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.008843879587898673
change_pct_from_t0
0.5815601948244111
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.6395859287671912
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
0.3546994302773065
Mudell event.price_move.within_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 6426304b5ebff6f3272328bb8da64eb7e88758adb094cc8a5df90ea1b6e8aecf · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+6.5%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.6198578504754702
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
5.1769223476155295
t0_value
1.5207161127265392
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
6.519411277307812
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.976254713413998
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.09914173774893098
change_pct_from_t0
6.519411277307812
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.6395859287671912
change_in_volatility_units
3.976254713413998
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.6198578504754702
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
5.1769223476155295
t0_value
1.5207161127265392
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
6.519411277307812
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.976254713413998
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.09914173774893098
change_pct_from_t0
6.519411277307812
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.6395859287671912
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.976254713413998
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità af6e17a2c9fc12605db2de0792f306ddb2a9385998aa5df24d2933c4ab6d0b02 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, l-Ungerija) inbidel b’+15.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’9.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.7536409985319892
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
10.240573382584989
t0_value
1.5207161127265392
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
15.316789495169598
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
9.341864446644971
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.23292488580545
change_pct_from_t0
15.316789495169598
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.6395859287671912
change_in_volatility_units
9.341864446644971
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
1.7536409985319892
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
z_score
10.240573382584989
t0_value
1.5207161127265392
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
15.316789495169598
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_HU_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2026-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
9.341864446644971
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.23292488580545
change_pct_from_t0
15.316789495169598
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
4
normal_volatility_pct
1.6395859287671912
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
9.341864446644971
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 76bda6f4b724718e66cd9ffc73f62eab5d928f8ece6eebce87adf79fb2d542af · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Ungerija) b’+8.8 c/l (firxa +5.1–+12.5); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+14.2 c/l, u jibqa’ +5.4 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.05403808222499537
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.14193998186559542
expected_eur_per_litre
0.08790189964060005
proxy_volatility_units
2.8999750350600633
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
9.9
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.050955535017049476
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.12484826426415095
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.05403808222499537
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.14193998186559542
expected_eur_per_litre
0.08790189964060005
proxy_volatility_units
2.8999750350600633
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
9.9
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.050955535017049476
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.12484826426415095
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità f1821fc6aca1a082e5d52ccc3bfb08c64c122f558b344e396a3d2b550ab287a6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, l-Ungerija) b’+13.7 c/l (firxa +1.8–+25.6); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+19.9 c/l, u jibqa’ +6.2 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
0.062315942153298526
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.19937393471383913
expected_eur_per_litre
0.1370579925605406
proxy_volatility_units
7.918982333112501
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.034
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.01797031443152892
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.25614567068955196
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
0.062315942153298526
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.19937393471383913
expected_eur_per_litre
0.1370579925605406
proxy_volatility_units
7.918982333112501
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.034
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.01797031443152892
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.25614567068955196
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
27.922644296421584
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 512823f28cfa8a2c5c325fb3068134e0a850784fc3b69fced82674f62cfeb87d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Ungerija) b’+12.1 c/l (firxa +7.5–+16.8); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+16.7 c/l, u jibqa’ +4.6 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’28.8 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.045881836111780164
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.16737011912480926
expected_eur_per_litre
0.1214882830130291
proxy_volatility_units
10.98407307729496
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
28.757999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.07450861396337274
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.1684679520626859
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-03-23
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-03-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.045881836111780164
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.16737011912480926
expected_eur_per_litre
0.1214882830130291
proxy_volatility_units
10.98407307729496
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
28.757999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.07450861396337274
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.1684679520626859
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 76c2e2a7f135ee733d03b72ed8ca7a4678da45ad61f7e1c4b279754563c5d711 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, l-Ungerija) b’+16.9 c/l (firxa +2.6–+31.3); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+20.9 c/l, u jibqa’ +4.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’16.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
0.03976081345883009
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
actual_eur_per_litre
0.20916701895248324
expected_eur_per_litre
0.16940620549365315
proxy_volatility_units
6.106591569642946
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
15.988
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.026228912207021542
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3125834987802834
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Hungary
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_HU_DIESEL
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2026-05-22
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2026-02-23
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-05-25
gap_eur_per_litre
0.03976081345883009
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2026-02-23
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.20916701895248324
expected_eur_per_litre
0.16940620549365315
proxy_volatility_units
6.106591569642946
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
15.988
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.026228912207021542
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3125834987802834
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
6.045708372099533
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 17059b7a39f7f52b07c7930c80379c90b85707eb8fecca4117484325f8efbc3d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-Ungerija, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) hija MHUX MAGĦRUFA: is-sors jirrapporta żero importazzjonijiet għal dan il-perjodu: m’hemm l-ebda volum li minnu jittieħed sehem – dan huwa żero rrappurtat, mhux data nieqsa.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Hungary
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_max_pct
null
value_min_pct
null
exposure_status
UNKNOWN
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Hungary
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_max_pct
null
value_min_pct
null
exposure_status
UNKNOWN
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.unknown v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ebf6074a83536554659a61420aee4c889912257531a9c1fbf0d7e813fdd5c894 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-Ungerija, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet moderata (0%–22%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Hungary
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_max_pct
22.3294117647059
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2026-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Hungary
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_max_pct
22.3294117647059
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2026-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 2e7c4113fa02603371308a28156691170519ce987c5217d4a28f8a83899ca004 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli turi tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (l-Ungerija, Frar 2026) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): -100.0%. Xhur mhux ippubblikati fosthom: 1; il-medja hija kkalkulata fuq ix-xhur ippubblikati (11).
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Hungary
change_pct
-100
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_tonnes
0
baseline_months
11
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
357463.63636363635
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
1
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
11
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
country
Hungary
change_pct
-100
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
value_tonnes
0
baseline_months
11
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
357463.63636363635
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
1
Mudell event.supply.reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità bb466f5708419e7c7ff54b56d15e822bfa618e85f7d1be5d9babe52482f52280 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Frar 2026: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (l-Ungerija) kienu 4.0% aktar baxxi meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 91.5 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: l-UngerijaIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_HU
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
days_of_cover
91.517
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-4.1053468947099265
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
3375300
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
3515308.3333333335
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-3.9828180079035267
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
-3.9828180079035267
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
-4
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2026-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Hungary
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_HU
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
days_of_cover
91.517
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
-4.1053468947099265
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2026-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
3375300
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
27
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
3515308.3333333335
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-3.9828180079035267
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c70d46992bd0fde3fb6100f6ca598be8ada0678031f3210d46f8ed91b7d93047 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (l-Ungerija) madwar l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: l-UngerijaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Hungary
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
dependence_band
null
dependence_range
null
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
country
Hungary
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
HU
country_name
Hungary
country_slug
hungary
dependence_band
null
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
null
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a6a1600fc5cfb1b7e8deaaf1027a4c5b3a530a3fc64df4eaa3ac72a4d099ade7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+34.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
95.74
status
OBSERVED
z_score
11.429511613277612
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
34.24004486819967
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-06
same_observation
false
volatility_units
17.72499106459417
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
24.42
change_pct_from_t0
34.24004486819967
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
17.72499106459417
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+70.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’36.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
121.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
20.908399390463835
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
70.89175546831184
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-03-30
same_observation
false
volatility_units
36.69842539827523
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
50.56
change_pct_from_t0
70.89175546831184
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
36.69842539827523
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+30.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħolja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
value
92.88
status
OBSERVED
z_score
10.392418306362824
t0_value
71.32
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
30.22994952327538
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2026-05-29
same_observation
false
volatility_units
15.64909121018224
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.560000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
30.22994952327538
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
1.9317383429656259
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
15.64909121018224
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
event_slug
hormuz-2026
event_type
HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

L-Ungerija: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: l-Ungerija, diżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli