Avvenimenti / Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu
Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)
- Dati
- 28/02/2026 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
- Preċiżjoni tad-data
- jum
- Status
- Għadu għaddej
- Ambitu
- L-Istrett ta’ Hormuz / il-Golf Persjan
X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)
Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.
L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Ivverifikat
Minn fejn ġejja d-data
IvverifikatGħolja- Identifikatur tas-sett tad-data
- Fuel Origin: kronoloġija tal-avvenimenti, magħżula u mħejjija minna (data/reference/events.csv)events.csvreference_events_v1
- Perjodu
- mhux irreġistrat
- Miġbur
- 03/10/2026 16:51 UTC
- Tip
- Ivverifikat
- Trasformazzjoni
- xejn – maħżun eżatt kif ippubblikat
- Liċenzja
- Għal kull ringiela: kull ringiela tista’ tiġi traċċata lura għad-dokument tal-aġenzija jew leġiżlattiv imsemmi f’source_urls.
- Rekord ta’ avveniment jiddeskrivi x’ġara, mhux x’kien fl-oriġini tiegħu (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §5).
- Punti tat-tieqa b’valur osservat: 6,933 minn 10,179; il-bqija huma toqob irreġistrati, mhux żeri.
- Kanali mingħajr sors li jista’ jintuża: NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE, NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE, NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK, NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES, NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES.
Dokumenti tas-sors (7)
- https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/mar26.pdf
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/aug26.pdf
- https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-oil-supplies-have-readjusted-to-help-fill-the-huge-gap-left-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-shock
- https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67865
- https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press590.php
Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.
It-tieqa tal-avveniment
Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.
Il-Latvja, Petrol (Euro-super 95). Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 15; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 4.
Qari ppubblikat: 182; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 13; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 52. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.
Europe Brent spot FOB
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 71.00 | -0.320 | -0.45% | -0.23 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 69.96 | -1.360 | -1.91% | -0.99 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 72.75 | +1.430 | +2.01% | +1.04 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 70.69 | -0.630 | -0.88% | -0.46 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 71.32 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 71.32 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 71.32 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 83.28 | +11.960 | +16.77% | +8.68 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 95.74 | +24.420 | +34.24% | +17.72 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 103.2 | +31.910 | +44.74% | +23.16 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 121.9 | +50.560 | +70.89% | +36.70 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 124.2 | +52.840 | +74.09% | +38.35 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 92.88 | +21.560 | +30.23% | +15.65 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.93%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 756). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
reported crude oil imports, all origins
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −14 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −7 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −3 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −1 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| T0 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.
crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.6447 | -0.004 | -0.61% | -0.68 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.6458 | -0.003 | -0.44% | -0.49 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.6489 | +0.000 | +0.04% | +0.04 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6821 | +0.033 | +5.15% | +5.71 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6821 | +0.033 | +5.15% | +5.71 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.7076 | +0.059 | +9.08% | +10.07 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.7713 | +0.123 | +18.91% | +20.98 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.7744 | +0.126 | +19.37% | +21.49 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.7526 | +0.104 | +16.02% | +17.77 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.90%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 1.197 | +0.016 | +1.38% | +3.12 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 1.186 | +0.006 | +0.48% | +1.09 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 1.177 | -0.004 | -0.32% | -0.73 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 1.178 | -0.002 | -0.18% | -0.40 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.181 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.181 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.181 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 1.161 | -0.020 | -1.69% | -3.81 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 1.156 | -0.024 | -2.07% | -4.67 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 1.148 | -0.033 | -2.79% | -6.29 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 1.148 | -0.032 | -2.72% | -6.14 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 1.171 | -0.010 | -0.84% | -1.89 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 1.164 | -0.016 | -1.36% | -3.08 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.44%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 765). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Il-linja tieqaf f’dawn il-punti tat-tieqa, fejn ma ġiet ippubblikata l-ebda ċifra fi żmien perjodu wieħed: −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +60, +90.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −14 | 2026-02-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −7 | 2026-02-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −3 | 2026-02-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −1 | 2026-02-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| T0 | 2026-02-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.
esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 3.124 | +2.676 | +598.01% | mhux ippubblikat |
| −14 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.4475 | 0.000 | 0.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
| −7 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.4475 | 0.000 | 0.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
| −3 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.4475 | 0.000 | 0.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
| −1 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.4475 | 0.000 | 0.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
| T0 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.4475 | 0.000 | 0.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | mhux ippubblikat |
Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.
esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 76.07 | -11.115 | -12.75% | -0.66 |
| −14 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 87.18 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −7 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 87.18 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −3 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 87.18 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 87.18 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 87.18 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 87.95 | +0.768 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 19.42%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.3714 | -0.009 | -2.40% | -0.66 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.3742 | -0.006 | -1.68% | -0.46 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.3817 | +0.001 | +0.29% | +0.08 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.4615 | +0.081 | +21.26% | +5.80 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.4615 | +0.081 | +21.26% | +5.80 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.5233 | +0.143 | +37.50% | +10.24 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.6763 | +0.296 | +77.69% | +21.21 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.6445 | +0.264 | +69.35% | +18.93 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.5248 | +0.144 | +37.88% | +10.34 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.66%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 443,358 | -85,543 | -16.17% | -1.41 |
| −14 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 528,901 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −7 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 528,901 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −3 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 528,901 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 528,901 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 528,901 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 600,755 | +71,854 | +13.59% | +1.18 |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 600,755 | +71,854 | +13.59% | +1.18 |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 600,755 | +71,854 | +13.59% | +1.18 |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 600,755 | +71,854 | +13.59% | +1.18 |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 600,755 | +71,854 | +13.59% | +1.18 |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 487,111 | -41,790 | -7.90% | -0.69 |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 487,449 | -41,452 | -7.84% | -0.68 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 11.48%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | -0.0288 | -0.029 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | -0.0041 | -0.004 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | -0.0031 | -0.003 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −3 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| −1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| T0 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0 | 0.000 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | -0.0184 | -0.018 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | -0.0184 | -0.018 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.0248 | +0.025 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.1563 | +0.156 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.0829 | +0.083 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.1832 | +0.183 | mhux ippubblikat | mhux ippubblikat |
Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.
Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 1.501 | -0.030 | -1.98% | -0.57 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 1.523 | -0.008 | -0.54% | -0.16 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 1.528 | -0.004 | -0.23% | -0.07 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.532 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.532 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.532 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 1.532 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 1.550 | +0.018 | +1.19% | +0.34 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 1.550 | +0.018 | +1.19% | +0.34 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 1.633 | +0.101 | +6.62% | +1.91 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 1.869 | +0.338 | +22.04% | +6.36 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 1.784 | +0.252 | +16.47% | +4.76 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 1.879 | +0.347 | +22.68% | +6.55 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 3.46%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.6160 | -0.033 | -5.04% | -0.77 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.6418 | -0.007 | -1.06% | -0.16 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.6458 | -0.003 | -0.45% | -0.07 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6637 | +0.015 | +2.31% | +0.35 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6637 | +0.015 | +2.31% | +0.35 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.7324 | +0.084 | +12.91% | +1.98 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.9276 | +0.279 | +43.00% | +6.59 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.8572 | +0.209 | +32.15% | +4.93 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.9357 | +0.287 | +44.25% | +6.78 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 6.52%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.8854 | +0.002 | +0.27% | +0.23 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.8815 | -0.001 | -0.16% | -0.14 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.8824 | -0.001 | -0.07% | -0.06 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.8830 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.8830 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.8830 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 0.8830 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.8861 | +0.003 | +0.36% | +0.30 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.8861 | +0.003 | +0.36% | +0.30 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.9006 | +0.018 | +1.99% | +1.68 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.9416 | +0.059 | +6.63% | +5.60 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.9268 | +0.044 | +4.96% | +4.19 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.9433 | +0.060 | +6.83% | +5.76 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.18%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 155). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 19.97 | +4.100 | +25.83% | +0.93 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 10.43 | -5.444 | -34.30% | -1.23 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 11.42 | -4.454 | -28.06% | -1.00 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 13.39 | -2.478 | -15.61% | -0.56 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 15.87 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 15.87 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 15.87 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 19.87 | +4.000 | +25.20% | +0.90 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 20.56 | +4.686 | +29.52% | +1.06 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 25.33 | +9.460 | +59.60% | +2.13 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 21.09 | +5.216 | +32.86% | +1.18 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 34.94 | +19.064 | +120.11% | +4.30 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 41.27 | +25.396 | +160.01% | +5.73 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 27.92%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.
| Punt tat-tieqa | Valur użat | Valur | Δ ass. | Δ % | Unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 23.42 | -7.240 | -23.62% | -2.64 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 21.47 | -9.182 | -29.95% | -3.35 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 27.04 | -3.614 | -11.79% | -1.32 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 33.05 | +2.394 | +7.81% | +0.87 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 30.66 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 30.66 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0 | 30.66 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 41.29 | +10.636 | +34.69% | +3.88 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 48.07 | +17.412 | +56.80% | +6.35 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 56.03 | +25.378 | +82.78% | +9.26 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 56.07 | +25.418 | +82.91% | +9.28 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 58.29 | +27.632 | +90.14% | +10.08 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 43.07 | +12.418 | +40.51% | +4.53 |
Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.94%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 733). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.
Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja
Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.
nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa
In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.
prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati
Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.
marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa
M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.
prezz bl-ingrossa / rack
Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.
T0: 28/02/2026. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.
L-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?
Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.
Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.
Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.
| Dimensjoni | Status | Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx |
|---|---|---|
| Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz. | Xejn ippubblikat fit-tieqa | mhux ippubblikat |
| Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz. | Osservat | 0 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)-100.00% mil-livell ta’ T0 |
| Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz. | Osservat | 87.95 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)+0.88% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +0.05 unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
| Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej. | Osservat | 121.9 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+70.89% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +36.70 unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
| Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa. | Mhux disponibbli | Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom. |
| Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott. | Mhux disponibbli | M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid. |
| NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar. | Mhux disponibbli | In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED). |
| StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista. | Osservat | 600,755 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-01)+13.59% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +1.18 unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
| Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol. | Mhux disponibbli | Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). |
| Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant. | Osservat | 0.9276 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+43.00% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +6.59 unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
| Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq. | Osservat | 1.869 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2026-03-30)+22.04% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +6.36 unitajiet ta’ volatilità |
L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data
Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.
Qsim tal-prezz (21/02/2026 – 30/03/2026) →
It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.
Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Latvja, petrol (Euro-super 95)
X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra.
Il-paragun maż-żejt mhux maħdum biss ma setax jinqara.
API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'latvia'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.
X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza
Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+2.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.6636912396694216
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 0.8688897602859436
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 2.3136516659820803
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.3547256176087153
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.015008264462809895
- change_pct_from_t0
- 2.3136516659820803
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.3547256176087153
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.6636912396694216
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 0.8688897602859436
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 2.3136516659820803
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.3547256176087153
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.015008264462809895
- change_pct_from_t0
- 2.3136516659820803
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.3547256176087153
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàa440d7ec52f43f72a8d69d5f4c9e8a217481b41dd4e7102dab68caa5bfced8c6· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+43.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’6.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.9276333884297522
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 10.273506463131826
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 43.00257967064607
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.593091283671246
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.2789504132231405
- change_pct_from_t0
- 43.00257967064607
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.593091283671246
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.9276333884297522
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 10.273506463131826
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 43.00257967064607
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.593091283671246
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.2789504132231405
- change_pct_from_t0
- 43.00257967064607
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.593091283671246
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità7920bb760da14558e7f36b28be866f4035d21dab80aa4180bd00faa0192dce77· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+44.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’6.8 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.9357325619834711
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 10.562091000464351
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 44.25113618642935
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.784518103746434
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.28704958677685943
- change_pct_from_t0
- 44.25113618642935
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.784518103746434
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.9357325619834711
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 10.562091000464351
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 44.25113618642935
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.784518103746434
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.28704958677685943
- change_pct_from_t0
- 44.25113618642935
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.784518103746434
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità1a483f14228f08eff299e7bccda2ecce05ee82c174b7f26fae24457532ab6c7c· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+1.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.3 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.54983
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 1.4669083097992408
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 1.1856339812100487
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.34233196895436907
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.018159999999999954
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.1856339812100487
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.34233196895436907
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.54983
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 1.4669083097992408
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 1.1856339812100487
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.34233196895436907
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.018159999999999954
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.1856339812100487
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.34233196895436907
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità4d05a9953ad2c9f42a2c9ab8e14ad57c49ac435929a11512f6eedc77b7589f22· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+22.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’6.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.8692000000000002
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 14.585696617531779
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 22.036731149660184
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.3627373062317485
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3375300000000001
- change_pct_from_t0
- 22.036731149660184
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.3627373062317485
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.8692000000000002
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 14.585696617531779
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 22.036731149660184
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.3627373062317485
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3375300000000001
- change_pct_from_t0
- 22.036731149660184
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.3627373062317485
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità437f6a9cb29149dea61fa24495a61711982bc89a1a11ef100eeb35b09a728aad· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+22.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’6.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.879
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 14.98825204044494
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 22.67655565493872
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.547475923839278
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3473299999999999
- change_pct_from_t0
- 22.67655565493872
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.547475923839278
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.879
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 14.98825204044494
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 22.67655565493872
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.547475923839278
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3473299999999999
- change_pct_from_t0
- 22.67655565493872
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.547475923839278
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità528c5fd415212c0f0b7fe7be10114a7c2fea2e2cfb2c2eb6f79135f18f623701· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+2.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.7447615702479339
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 1.2546212964987946
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 2.3080464311278583
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.38112208387859287
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.01680165289256197
- change_pct_from_t0
- 2.3080464311278583
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.38112208387859287
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.7447615702479339
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 1.2546212964987946
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 2.3080464311278583
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.38112208387859287
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.01680165289256197
- change_pct_from_t0
- 2.3080464311278583
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.38112208387859287
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàb6c924fa1c9a62c3a2e4086e3cb5aee53c0a2ce9092ea3db3a211ec286c810c4· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+59.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’9.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.1577119834710743
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 15.709735566569263
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 59.03512760386065
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 9.748326788827763
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.4297520661157024
- change_pct_from_t0
- 59.03512760386065
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- change_in_volatility_units
- 9.748326788827763
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.1577119834710743
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 15.709735566569263
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 59.03512760386065
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 9.748326788827763
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.4297520661157024
- change_pct_from_t0
- 59.03512760386065
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 9.748326788827763
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità89dacb9bee91c66f6c885d69e0f184740af79bd2f20838c932fd1096b3d705ad· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+51.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’8.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.1000590909090908
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 13.69162607134218
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 51.115338177619655
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 8.440551256541946
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3720991735537189
- change_pct_from_t0
- 51.115338177619655
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- change_in_volatility_units
- 8.440551256541946
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.1000590909090908
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 13.69162607134218
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 51.115338177619655
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 8.440551256541946
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3720991735537189
- change_pct_from_t0
- 51.115338177619655
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 8.440551256541946
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità2274f64bb416352b219532edcfcf5655b830853ba2f35639d9989fd664d067f0· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+1.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’0.4 — ġewwa dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.54833
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 2.137218688511324
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 1.33049738219895
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.36797623415429
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.02032999999999996
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.33049738219895
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.36797623415429
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.54833
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 2.137218688511324
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 1.33049738219895
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.36797623415429
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.02032999999999996
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.33049738219895
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.36797623415429
Mudell
event.price_move.within_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità9a5c4e210d6d1e2516741ecc4f846aed1a22ad813531fbfe230659709abb8812· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+34.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’9.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 2.048
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 23.04417428833747
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 34.031413612565444
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 9.412082723080728
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.52
- change_pct_from_t0
- 34.031413612565444
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- change_in_volatility_units
- 9.412082723080728
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 2.048
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 23.04417428833747
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 34.031413612565444
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 9.412082723080728
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.52
- change_pct_from_t0
- 34.031413612565444
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 9.412082723080728
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità322fcd9fdb9a759e5b6c9822293a9249b1a53e15dc8e6590bf6cc5002a8001f4· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Latvja) inbidel b’+23.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’6.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.89233
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 16.530703841392615
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 23.84358638743456
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.59443095865385
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.36433000000000004
- change_pct_from_t0
- 23.84358638743456
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.59443095865385
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.89233
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 16.530703841392615
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 23.84358638743456
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.59443095865385
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.36433000000000004
- change_pct_from_t0
- 23.84358638743456
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.59443095865385
Mudell
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàac306fb4b13169532b4193fb0f65e51209de79904a9916948908c816a711b017· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Latvja) b’+9.3 c/l (firxa +0.8–+17.9); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+21.5 c/l, u jibqa’ +12.1 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’9.9 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatMedjaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.12134103987676825
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.2146528925619835
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.09331185268521525
- proxy_volatility_units
- 2.8999750350600633
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 9.9
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.007723495382637502
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.178900209987793
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Limiti
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.12134103987676825
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.2146528925619835
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.09331185268521525
- proxy_volatility_units
- 2.8999750350600633
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 9.9
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.007723495382637502
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.178900209987793
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Mudell
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàf21fdb59e7e2c5f88cdcc33a30922e400369439a4178f30a23b9273d2cdb223b· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Latvja) b’+10.4 c/l (firxa -14.6–+35.3); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+28.7 c/l, u jibqa’ +18.3 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (petrol), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’27.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatMedjaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.18315954672247226
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.28704958677685943
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.10389004005438718
- proxy_volatility_units
- 7.918982333112501
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 27.034
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- -0.14562483965157513
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.35340491976034905
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Limiti
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.18315954672247226
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.28704958677685943
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.10389004005438718
- proxy_volatility_units
- 7.918982333112501
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 27.034
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- -0.14562483965157513
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.35340491976034905
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Mudell
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàedc8457dc122fd38fc83bd090ee1b056ce1ec4a07d95e22558b8e8b87cf6abbb· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Latvja) b’+36.0 c/l (firxa +23.9–+48.1); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+40.9 c/l, u jibqa’ +4.9 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’28.8 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatMedjaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.04927436724690992
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.40909090909090917
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.35981654184399925
- proxy_volatility_units
- 10.98407307729496
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 28.757999999999996
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.23909139938083623
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.48054168430716376
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Limiti
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.04927436724690992
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.40909090909090917
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.35981654184399925
- proxy_volatility_units
- 10.98407307729496
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 28.757999999999996
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.23909139938083623
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.48054168430716376
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Mudell
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàe3e94b1273010a63fb53a25703bde46555481fc84edf3134fdfb8e08c941114a· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Latvja) b’+62.5 c/l (firxa +25.6–+99.5); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+37.2 c/l, u jibqa’ -25.3 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’16.0 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatMedjaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.2533814971351436
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.3720991735537189
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.6254806706888625
- proxy_volatility_units
- 6.106591569642946
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 15.988
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.25580179814200765
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.9951595432357158
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Limiti
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.2533814971351436
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.3720991735537189
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.6254806706888625
- proxy_volatility_units
- 6.106591569642946
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 15.988
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.25580179814200765
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.9951595432357158
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Mudell
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàda937c2317737d42c3e9b6605651e6213e0dcdd47abae3350cdaa112ca0cd504· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCIl-Latvja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) hija MHUX MAGĦRUFA: is-sors jirrapporta żero importazzjonijiet għal dan il-perjodu: m’hemm l-ebda volum li minnu jittieħed sehem – dan huwa żero rrappurtat, mhux data nieqsa.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- NO_OBSERVATION
- country
- Latvia
- commodity
- crude
- dimension
- DIRECT_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- value_max_pct
- null
- value_min_pct
- null
- exposure_status
- UNKNOWN
- value_point_pct
- null
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
- band_applied_to
- upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
- dependence_limited_max_pct
- 10
- dependence_moderate_max_pct
- 33
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- NO_OBSERVATION
- country
- Latvia
- commodity
- crude
- dimension
- DIRECT_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- value_max_pct
- null
- value_min_pct
- null
- exposure_status
- UNKNOWN
- statement_topic
- hormuz
- value_point_pct
- null
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.dependence.unknownv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàe949e8876739424dbe474f31815ae9bbc02464e041a3b9ee96a6cb18d55c4dfb· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCIl-Latvja, Frar 2026: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%).
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatBaxxaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- commodity
- refined product
- dimension
- DIRECT_PRODUCT
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- value_max_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- value_min_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- value_point_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
- band_applied_to
- upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
- dependence_limited_max_pct
- 10
- dependence_moderate_max_pct
- 33
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- commodity
- refined product
- dimension
- DIRECT_PRODUCT
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- value_max_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- value_min_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- statement_topic
- hormuz
- value_point_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.dependence.pointv1.2 · Marka tal-identità7a28220d3f0ffaaff478745a88d0171f9df483fa437934eeed5d04de2b5edd51· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCJekk il-provvista taż-żejt mhux maħdum (il-Latvja, Frar 2026) naqset fiżikament huwa MHUX MAGĦRUF: importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum fix-xhur ta’ qabel (12) ugwali għal żero; ma tistax tiġi kkalkulata bidla perċentwali.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- country
- Latvia
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- value_tonnes
- 0
- missing_reason
- zero_baseline
- baseline_months
- 12
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
- crude_imports_rule
- crude_imports_total-1.1
- baseline_mean_tonnes
- 0
- baseline_window_months
- 12
- value_not_published_code
- null
- baseline_not_published_months
- 0
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
- min_baseline_months
- 6
- baseline_months_used
- 12
- supply_reduction_pct
- -10
- supply_baseline_months
- 12
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- country
- Latvia
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- value_tonnes
- 0
- missing_reason
- zero_baseline
- baseline_months
- 12
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
- crude_imports_rule
- crude_imports_total-1.1
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- baseline_mean_tonnes
- 0
- baseline_window_months
- 12
- value_not_published_code
- null
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- baseline_not_published_months
- 0
Mudell
event.supply.unknownv1.2 · Marka tal-identità6d440f22c27cffe339cc2690eb959d22bbac1662bc5d4d5e3c6c4569d79f1518· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFrar 2026: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (il-Latvja) kienu 3.1% ogħla meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 87.2 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: il-LatvjaIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- direction
- above
- siec_code
- O4000
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- holder_type
- STK_CL
- series_code
- INVENTORY_LV
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- days_of_cover
- 87.184
- metric_status
- COMPUTED
- mom_change_pct
- 19.294340014164625
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
- total_stock_tonnes
- 528901
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- observation_gap_days
- 27
- trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
- 512975.75
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
- 3.104483983892027
- trailing_12m_observations
- 12
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
- band_applied_to
- the rounded figure printed in the sentence
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- trailing_window_months
- 12
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
- 3.104483983892027
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
- 3.1
- inventory_material_deviation_pct
- 5
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- direction
- above
- siec_code
- O4000
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- holder_type
- STK_CL
- series_code
- INVENTORY_LV
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- days_of_cover
- 87.184
- metric_status
- COMPUTED
- mom_change_pct
- 19.294340014164625
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
- total_stock_tonnes
- 528901
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 27
- trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
- 512975.75
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
- 3.104483983892027
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- trailing_12m_observations
- 12
Mudell
event.inventory_level.in_linev1.2 · Marka tal-identitàae1392a141925af8adf818eb96bf12c2279e5808eb614da24dd4fc1c85333d92· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCSommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (il-Latvja) madwar l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: il-LatvjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- country
- Latvia
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- dependence_band
- null
- dependence_range
- null
- channels_available
- ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
- supply_template_id
- event.supply.unknown
- channels_unavailable
- ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
- channels_total
- 8
- channels_available
- 4
- verdict_partial_min_channels
- 3
- verdict_assessable_min_channels
- 8
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- country
- Latvia
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- dependence_band
- null
- statement_topic
- event
- dependence_range
- null
- channels_available
- ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
- supply_template_id
- event.supply.unknown
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- channels_unavailable
- ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.verdict.partialv1.2 · Marka tal-identità09c1babb1f7cbc4a6da33c57d8d08b883a4a3ee5f784d1e4fd72578abb846690· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+34.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 95.74
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 11.429511613277612
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 34.24004486819967
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 24.42
- change_pct_from_t0
- 34.24004486819967
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- change_in_volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 95.74
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 11.429511613277612
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 34.24004486819967
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 24.42
- change_pct_from_t0
- 34.24004486819967
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
Mudell
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+70.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’36.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 121.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 20.908399390463835
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 70.89175546831184
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 50.56
- change_pct_from_t0
- 70.89175546831184
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- change_in_volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 121.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 20.908399390463835
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 70.89175546831184
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 50.56
- change_pct_from_t0
- 70.89175546831184
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
Mudell
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identità29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCFil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “Tfixkil fit-trasport marittimu fl-Istrett ta’ Hormuz (2026)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+30.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’15.6 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatGħoljaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 92.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 10.392418306362824
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 30.22994952327538
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-05-29
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 21.560000000000002
- change_pct_from_t0
- 30.22994952327538
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- change_in_volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
Limiti
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 92.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 10.392418306362824
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 30.22994952327538
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-05-29
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 21.560000000000002
- change_pct_from_t0
- 30.22994952327538
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
Mudell
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.2 · Marka tal-identitàda6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCNoli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["freight rates"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["freight rates"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Marka tal-identitàcbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCPrezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refined-product benchmark"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refined-product benchmark"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Marka tal-identità8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCPrezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["wholesale prices"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["wholesale prices"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Marka tal-identitàcb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTCMarġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufaGħaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refining margin"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refining margin"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Mudell
event.channel.unavailablev1.2 · Marka tal-identitàc3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8· kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
X’ma jurix dan
- Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
- Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
- Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
- Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.
Kif jinqraw it-tikketti
- UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
- IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
- IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
- Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
- Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
- Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
- Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.