Strait of Hormuz and Europe’s oil
Is Hormuz really the reason?
In June 2026, between 1% and 7% of the crude oil imported by EU countries may have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. A year earlier, in June 2025, it was between 6% and 12%. For refined products such as diesel and jet fuel the share was up to 8% (between 6% and 13% a year earlier).
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) - Comext — EU trade since 1988 by CN8 (international trade in goods, detailed data)
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- Eurostat — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)
- EIA, IEA and terminal operators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin Hormuz route classification and country bounds, methodology v1.0
- Period
- June 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
Crude oil: pooled over the 20 of 27 member states with a published figure. Reported no imports: Cyprus, Estonia, Luxembourg, Latvia, Malta, Slovenia. Not included: Bulgaria (origins not published). Tonnes for Finland are estimated from published euro values, because the tonnes were withheld.
Refined products: pooled over the 27 of 27 member states with a published figure.
A range, not a single figure: some Gulf producers can load oil both inside and outside the Gulf (Saudi Arabia also exports from the Red Sea), and how much went which way is not published. No midpoint is given.
Hormuz can reach a country's fuel in eight separate ways. Of these, four are measured from published data, one is estimated country by country, one is not modelled yet and two cannot be measured because the only data sources may not be published. A country that imports no Gulf oil can still see its prices move, because oil is priced on a world market.
Month by month, EU-wide
The same calculation for each month. A month in which not every member state had reported is marked; its figure covers only the countries that had.
| Month | Crude imports through Hormuz | Refined products |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 1–7% | Up to 8% |
| May 2026 | 1.2–5.7% | Up to 7% |
| April 2026 | 1–7% | 1.5–6.2% |
| March 2026 | 4–12% | 5–12% |
| February 2026 | 6–13% | 3–12% |
| January 2026 | 6–12% | 2–10% |
| December 2025 | 6–12% | 3–10% |
| November 2025 | 7–14% | 2–11% |
| October 2025 | 7–13% | 3–10% |
| September 2025 | 6–12% | 3–10% |
| August 2025 | 5–12% | 4–10% |
| July 2025 | 6–12% | 4–11% |
| June 2025 | 6–12% | 6–13% |
| May 2025 | 5–11% | 3–13% |
| April 2025 | 4–10% | 4–13% |
| March 2025 | 5–11% | 3–10% |
| February 2025 | 7–13% | 3–9% |
| January 2025 | 3–11% | 4–9% |
| December 2024 | 5–12% | 4.4–9.1% |
| November 2024 | 5–13% | 6–16% |
| October 2024 | 8–16% | 4–13% |
| September 2024 | 6–14% | 4–12% |
| August 2024 | 8–14% | 5–13% |
| July 2024 | 7–13% | 4–12% |
| June 2024 | 7–15% | 5–14% |
| May 2024 | 7–16% | 2–11% |
| April 2024 | 6–15% | 6–14% |
| March 2024 | 7–17% | 2–11% |
| February 2024 | 4–13% | 2–8% |
| January 2024 | 4–9% | 3–11% |
| December 2023 | 6–13% | 3–9% |
| November 2023 | 8–15% | 3.2–8.2% |
| October 2023 | 9–17% | 3–9% |
| September 2023 | 8–16% | 4–10% |
| August 2023 | 7–15% | 5–11% |
| July 2023 | 7–15% | 5–13% |
Eight ways Hormuz can reach Europe's fuel
EstimatedCrude oil imports
Measured1–7%
A year earlier: 6–12%
Share of the crude oil a country imported that was loaded at terminals inside the Persian Gulf, so had to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Pooled over the 20 member states that imported crude oil in June 2026 and published where it came from.
Per country: Crude origins on each country page
Refined-product imports
MeasuredUp to 8%
A year earlier: 6–13%
Share of imported diesel, petrol, jet fuel and other refined products that was loaded inside the Gulf.
Pooled over the 27 member states that published their refined-product imports for June 2026. Counts where a product was refined, not where its crude came from.
Per country: Product origins on each country page
Gulf crude refined elsewhere
Estimated26 of 27 countries
Gulf crude that reaches a country as fuel made in another country's refinery, for example diesel refined in India from Gulf crude.
Not published by anyone, so not measured. Each country page estimates the crude behind its road diesel one refining step back; the estimates are not added up into an EU figure.
Per country: The headline of each country page
Tanker freight
Unavailable: licenceHow much the cost of shipping oil to Europe changes when tanker routes near the Gulf are disrupted.
No freight-rate series by route and vessel class is licensed for use.
Per country: Not shown for any country
World crude price
Measured18 of 27 countries
How closely pre-tax pump prices follow the crude oil price — the way a Gulf event reaches a country that imports no Gulf oil at all.
How pre-tax diesel prices have followed the crude input cost since 2005, estimated country by country; not combined into an EU figure. Where no estimate is shown, the two series do not move together closely enough over the sample for one to be made.
Per country: The pump-price page of each country
Refining margins
Unavailable: licenceHow much of a price move comes through refiners' margins rather than the cost of crude.
No EU refined-product benchmark is licensed for use, and US crack spreads are not substituted for one.
Per country: Not shown for any country
Emergency stocks
MeasuredFrom 70 days (Denmark) to 182 days (Finland)
A year earlier: from 76 days (Denmark) to 178 days (Finland)
How many days of oil a country holds in emergency stocks against an interruption.
Days of emergency stocks as published for June 2026, across the 27 member states with a figure. Monthly, about two and a half months behind.
Per country: Stocks on each country page
Pump prices and tax
Not modelled yetHow much of a crude price move reaches the pump, given each country's fuel taxes.
How much of a crude price move reaches the pump has not been computed yet. Taxes damp it: tax is between 25% (Sweden) and 54% (Malta) of the diesel pump price across 27 member states (week of 21 Sep 2026).
Per country: The pump-price page of each country
Source & method
- Source
- European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER) — Weekly Oil Bulletin - retail fuel prices with and without taxes
- European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER) — Oil Bulletin Duties and taxes - excise, VAT and other indirect taxes on fuels
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (petroleum spot prices)
- Eurostat (European Commission) - Comext — EU trade since 1988 by CN8 (international trade in goods, detailed data)
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Supply and transformation of oil and petroleum products - monthly data
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Emergency oil stocks in days equivalent - monthly data
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- Eurostat — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)
- EIA, IEA and terminal operators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin Hormuz route classification and country bounds, methodology v1.0
- Period
- June 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
Each way is measured on its own and never added into one score: combining them would need weights no source provides. A solid box is measured from published data, a dashed box is an estimate, a hatched box has no figure.
Every EU country, June 2026
EstimatedSlovenia: the eight dimensions
CloseSlovenia reported no crude oil imports in June 2026. For refined products: up to 37%.
| Dimension | Status | Slovenia | Shown on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude oil imports | Not loaded | Country page | |
| Refined-product imports | Measured | Up to 37% | Country page |
| Gulf crude refined elsewhere | Estimated | 2–74% of the crude behind road diesel, traced one refining step back | Country page |
| Tanker freight | Unavailable: licence | No freight-rate series by route and vessel class is licensed for use. | Not shown |
| World crude price | Measured | In Slovenia, a 1 c/L rise in the crude input cost was followed within 4 weeks by a 1.32 c/L rise in the pre-tax diesel price (90% CI 0.83 to 1.82 c/L); a 1 c/L fall by a 0.74 c/L fall (90% CI 0.43 to 1.04 c/L). The difference is not statistically distinguishable at the published 5% per-country threshold (p = 0.165): no asymmetry is detected at that level in this sample, which is not the same as finding the response symmetric. Estimated over 2005-01-03 to 2026-09-14, 1084 weekly observations. | Pump-price page |
| Refining margins | Unavailable: licence | No EU refined-product benchmark is licensed for use, and US crack spreads are not substituted for one. | Not shown |
| Emergency stocks | Measured | 103 days of emergency oil stocks, as published for June 2026 | Country page |
| Pump prices and tax | Not modelled yet | Not modelled yet. Tax is 36% of the diesel pump price (week of 21 Sep 2026), which damps how much of a crude price move shows at the pump. | Pump-price page |
Slovenia country page → · Slovenia around the 2026 disruption →
Sort byCountryCrude imports ▼Refined productsEmergency stocks
| Country | Crude importsthrough Hormuz | Refined productsthrough Hormuz | Emergency stocksdays of cover | What the figures say |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | Crude imports through Hormuz:Up to 37% | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 0.3% | Emergency stocks:92 days | Up to 37% of Poland's crude imports in June 2026 may have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. For refined products: up to 0.3%. |
| Lithuania | Crude imports through Hormuz:Up to 31% | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:87 days | Up to 31% of Lithuania's crude imports in June 2026 may have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| Czechia | Crude imports through Hormuz:Up to 31% | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:85 days | Up to 31% of Czechia's crude imports in June 2026 may have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| Greece | Crude imports through Hormuz:19–25% | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:102 days | 19–25% of Greece's crude imports in June 2026 may have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| Italy | Crude imports through Hormuz:Up to 8% | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 32% | Emergency stocks:90 days | Up to 8% of Italy's crude imports in June 2026 may have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. For refined products: up to 32%. |
| Spain | Crude imports through Hormuz:Up to 4.2% | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 7% | Emergency stocks:97 days | Up to 4.2% of Spain's crude imports in June 2026 may have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. For refined products: up to 7%. |
| Germany | Crude imports through Hormuz:0.3% | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 3.4% | Emergency stocks:92 days | 0.3% of Germany's crude imports in June 2026 may have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. For refined products: up to 3.4%. |
| Austria | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:89 days | None of Austria's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| Belgium | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:0.3–5.0% | Emergency stocks:111 days | None of Belgium's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. For refined products: 0.3–5.0%. |
| Croatia | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:85 days | None of Croatia's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| Denmark | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 28% | Emergency stocks:70 days | None of Denmark's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. For refined products: up to 28%. |
| Finland | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% estimated | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:182 days | None of Finland's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| France | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 15% | Emergency stocks:88 days | None of France's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. For refined products: up to 15%. |
| Hungary | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 28% | Emergency stocks:82 days | None of Hungary's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. For refined products: up to 28%. |
| Ireland | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:81 days | None of Ireland's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| Netherlands | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 0.5% | Emergency stocks:94 days | None of the Netherlands' crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. For refined products: up to 0.5%. |
| Portugal | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 0.6% | Emergency stocks:88 days | None of Portugal's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. For refined products: up to 0.6%. |
| Romania | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:5–53% | Emergency stocks:90 days | None of Romania's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. For refined products: 5–53%. |
| Slovakia | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:90 days | None of Slovakia's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| Sweden | Crude imports through Hormuz:0% | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:104 days | None of Sweden's crude imports in June 2026 came from terminals inside the Gulf. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| Bulgaria | Crude imports through Hormuz:origins not published | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 29% | Emergency stocks:85 days | Bulgaria's crude exposure in June 2026 is not known: its crude imports are published without their countries of origin. For refined products: up to 29%. |
| Cyprus | Crude imports through Hormuz:no imports | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 33% | Emergency stocks:89 days | Cyprus reported no crude oil imports in June 2026. For refined products: up to 33%. |
| Estonia | Crude imports through Hormuz:no imports | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:75 days | Estonia reported no crude oil imports in June 2026. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| Latvia | Crude imports through Hormuz:no imports | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:88 days | Latvia reported no crude oil imports in June 2026. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| Luxembourg | Crude imports through Hormuz:no imports | Refined products through Hormuz:0% | Emergency stocks:96 days | Luxembourg reported no crude oil imports in June 2026. None of its refined-product imports came from inside the Gulf. |
| Malta | Crude imports through Hormuz:no imports | Refined products through Hormuz:3–12% | Emergency stocks:103 days | Malta reported no crude oil imports in June 2026. For refined products: 3–12%. |
| Slovenia | Crude imports through Hormuz:no imports | Refined products through Hormuz:Up to 37% | Emergency stocks:103 days | Slovenia reported no crude oil imports in June 2026. For refined products: up to 37%. |
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) - Comext — EU trade since 1988 by CN8 (international trade in goods, detailed data)
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- Eurostat — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country, monthly data (refined products)
- EIA, IEA and terminal operators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin Hormuz route classification and country bounds, methodology v1.0
- Period
- June 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
All figures are for June 2026, the latest month every member state has reported, so a country page showing a later month may differ. The band under a share runs from its low to its high end; the hatched part is the range that cannot be narrowed without terminal-level data.
The 2026 disruption: what the evidence shows
CalculatedStrait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), dated 28 Feb 2026. What each series did in the weeks after that date, and what cannot be checked.
What the evidence shows
- The world crude price (Brent) moved +34.2%, +70.9% and +30.2% in the 7, 30 and 90 days after the event date — outside its normal day-to-day variation at every one of these horizons.
- Pump prices before tax: within 30 days of the event date the price moved by more than its normal week-to-week variation for diesel in 26 of 26 countries and petrol in 26 of 26 countries.
- Pump prices including tax: within 30 days of the event date the price moved by more than its normal week-to-week variation for diesel in 26 of 26 countries and petrol in 26 of 26 countries.
- Crude costs alone: over the 4 weeks after the event, each country's pre-tax price was compared with the range that its own past response to crude costs predicts (diesel: above that range in 14 of 19 countries, inside it in 3, below it in 2; petrol: above that range in 10 of 22 countries, inside it in 10, below it in 2). A move above the range is not explained by crude; this data cannot say what explains it.
- Physical dependence in February 2026: the share of crude imports that may have passed through the strait was under 10% (upper end of the range) in 11 of 18 countries, 10%–33% in 4 and above 33% in 3 (Greece, Lithuania and Poland).
- Reported crude imports in February 2026, the month of the event date: at least 10% below the average of the previous 12 months in 5 of 17 countries (Belgium, Romania, Slovakia, Spain and Sweden); 10 could not be assessed, because their figure is a reported zero or is not published.
- Oil stocks in February 2026: more than 5% below their average of the previous 12 months in 5 of 27 countries, within 5% of it in 15, and more than 5% above it in 7.
What it does not show
- What happened to refining margins, wholesale prices, refined-product benchmarks and freight rates. These cannot be checked: the only series are sold under licences that do not allow them to be published, and no public body publishes an equivalent.
- Whether the disruption caused any of these moves. The figures above describe what each series did in the weeks after the event date. No causal method is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same weeks may have moved for other reasons.
- How much Gulf crude reached Europe inside fuel refined elsewhere, for example in India or Turkey. Those refineries do not publish where their crude came from.
Source & method
- Source
- European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER) — Weekly Oil Bulletin - retail fuel prices with and without taxes
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (petroleum spot prices)
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Emergency oil stocks in days equivalent - monthly data
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Stock levels for oil products - monthly data
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin curated event timeline
- Period
- Event dated 28 Feb 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
Each line counts the event study’s own country-by-country statements. A move is “outside normal variation” when it is at least twice the series’ usual week-to-week (for Brent, day-to-day) change over the three years before the event.