Fuel Origin

Events / Import ban

EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)

Dates
2022-12-05 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
European Union

What the sources said

Sixth package of EU sanctions, adopted 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014). European Commission, 3 June 2022: "a complete import ban on all Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products"; "For seaborne crude oil, spot market transactions and execution of existing contracts will be permitted for six months after entry into force, while for petroleum products, these will be permitted for eight months." Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Temporary derogations apply to pipeline crude for certain member states and to Bulgaria and Croatia, so reported imports from Russia do not fall to zero. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-23 07:22 UTCRevision 1
Source documents (3)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Bulgaria, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

260 published readings, 26 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90102.472.42022-11-04: 99.53 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 88.44 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 83.50 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-12-02: 86.54 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 83.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-12-06: 79.92 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12022-12-08: 76.02 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-12-12: 78.00 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 81.66 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-01-04: 75.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-02-03: 78.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-03-03: 85.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-0499.53+16.170+19.40%+4.30
−142022-11-2188.44+5.080+6.09%+1.35
−72022-11-2883.50+0.140+0.17%+0.04
−32022-12-0286.54+3.180+3.81%+0.85
−12022-12-0286.54+3.180+3.81%+0.85
T02022-12-05same print as T083.360.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-0679.92-3.440-4.13%-0.91
+32022-12-0876.02-7.340-8.81%-1.95
+72022-12-1278.00-5.360-6.43%-1.42
+142022-12-1981.66-1.700-2.04%-0.45
+302023-01-0475.31-8.050-9.66%-2.14
+602023-02-0378.85-4.510-5.41%-1.20
+902023-03-0385.74+2.380+2.86%+0.63

One volatility unit for this series is 4.51%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (760 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0000.0002022-11-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2022-12-01, 0 tonnes, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-01-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +302023-02-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +602023-03-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-0100.000not publishednot published
−142022-11-0100.000not publishednot published
−72022-11-0100.000not publishednot published
−32022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+142022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+302023-01-0100.000not publishednot published
+602023-02-0100.000not publishednot published
+902023-03-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0460.9532022-10-31: 1.029 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 1.037 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 1.020 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 1.004 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.9861 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.9687 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.9624 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.9794 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.9946 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-311.029+0.025+2.47%+0.57
−142022-11-211.037+0.033+3.33%+0.77
−72022-11-281.020+0.016+1.57%+0.36
−32022-11-281.020+0.016+1.57%+0.36
−12022-11-281.020+0.016+1.57%+0.36
T02022-12-05same print as T01.0040.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T01.0040.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T01.0040.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.9861-0.018-1.78%-0.41
+142022-12-190.9687-0.035-3.52%-0.81
+302023-01-020.9624-0.042-4.14%-0.96
+602023-01-300.9794-0.025-2.46%-0.57
+902023-02-270.9946-0.009-0.93%-0.22

One volatility unit for this series is 4.32%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.8100.7142022-10-31: 0.8004 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.7976 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.7817 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.7645 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.7458 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.7312 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.7230 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.7326 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.7378 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.8004+0.036+4.70%+2.49
−142022-11-210.7976+0.033+4.33%+2.29
−72022-11-280.7817+0.017+2.25%+1.19
−32022-11-280.7817+0.017+2.25%+1.19
−12022-11-280.7817+0.017+2.25%+1.19
T02022-12-05same print as T00.76450.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.76450.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.76450.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.7458-0.019-2.44%-1.29
+142022-12-190.7312-0.033-4.35%-2.30
+302023-01-020.7230-0.042-5.43%-2.88
+602023-01-300.7326-0.032-4.17%-2.21
+902023-02-270.7378-0.027-3.49%-1.85

One volatility unit for this series is 1.89%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1060.9742022-11-04: 0.9872 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 1.025 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 1.046 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72022-12-02: 1.054 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 1.059 US dollars per euro, used for offsets T02022-12-06: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12022-12-08: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32022-12-12: 1.056 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 1.060 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142023-01-04: 1.060 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302023-02-03: 1.094 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602023-03-03: 1.062 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-040.9872-0.072-6.75%-13.43
−142022-11-211.025-0.034-3.22%-6.40
−72022-11-281.046-0.012-1.17%-2.33
−32022-12-021.054-0.005-0.46%-0.92
−12022-12-021.054-0.005-0.46%-0.92
T02022-12-05same print as T01.0590.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-061.052-0.007-0.67%-1.33
+32022-12-081.052-0.007-0.64%-1.28
+72022-12-121.056-0.002-0.24%-0.47
+142022-12-191.060+0.001+0.10%+0.21
+302023-01-041.060+0.001+0.11%+0.23
+602023-02-031.094+0.035+3.31%+6.57
+902023-03-031.062+0.003+0.26%+0.53

One volatility unit for this series is 0.50%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.120-0.120

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. The line stops at −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +60, +90 where no figure was published within one period of the offset.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−142022-11-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−72022-11-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−32022-12-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−12022-12-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
T02022-12-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+12022-12-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+32022-12-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+72022-12-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+142022-12-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+302023-01-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+602023-02-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+902023-03-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+903.4960.0002022-11-01: 0 to 3.121 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-12-01: 0 to 2.024 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-01-01: 0 to 1.322 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-02-01: 0 to 0.0189 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-03-01: 0 to 0.0426 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-010–3.121not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-11-010–3.121not publishednot publishednot published
−72022-11-010–3.121not publishednot publishednot published
−32022-12-010–2.024not publishednot publishednot published
−12022-12-010–2.024not publishednot publishednot published
T02022-12-010–2.024not publishednot publishednot published
+12022-12-010–2.024not publishednot publishednot published
+32022-12-010–2.024not publishednot publishednot published
+72022-12-010–2.024not publishednot publishednot published
+142022-12-010–2.024not publishednot publishednot published
+302023-01-010–1.322not publishednot publishednot published
+602023-02-010–0.0189not publishednot publishednot published
+902023-03-010–0.0426not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9081.2478.762022-11-01: 79.00 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2022-12-01, 80.00 days of cover, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-01-01: 80.00 days of cover, used for offsets +302023-02-01: 80.00 days of cover, used for offsets +602023-03-01: 81.00 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-0179.00-1.000-1.25%-0.47
−142022-11-0179.00-1.000-1.25%-0.47
−72022-11-0179.00-1.000-1.25%-0.47
−32022-12-01same print as T080.000.0000.00%0.00
−12022-12-01same print as T080.000.0000.00%0.00
T02022-12-01same print as T080.000.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-01same print as T080.000.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-01same print as T080.000.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-01same print as T080.000.0000.00%0.00
+142022-12-01same print as T080.000.0000.00%0.00
+302023-01-0180.000.0000.00%0.00
+602023-02-0180.000.0000.00%0.00
+902023-03-0181.00+1.000+1.25%+0.47

One volatility unit for this series is 2.66%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6280.4422022-10-31: 0.6104 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.5263 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.5123 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.4687 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.4798 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.4779 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.4598 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.4720 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.4954 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.6104+0.142+30.24%+3.72
−142022-11-210.5263+0.058+12.30%+1.51
−72022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
−32022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
−12022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
T02022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.4798+0.011+2.38%+0.29
+142022-12-190.4779+0.009+1.98%+0.24
+302023-01-020.4598-0.009-1.89%-0.23
+602023-01-300.4720+0.003+0.71%+0.09
+902023-02-270.4954+0.027+5.69%+0.70

One volatility unit for this series is 8.13%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6280.4422022-10-31: 0.6104 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.5263 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.5123 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.4687 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.4798 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.4779 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.4598 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.4720 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.4954 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.6104+0.142+30.24%+3.72
−142022-11-210.5263+0.058+12.30%+1.51
−72022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
−32022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
−12022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
T02022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.4798+0.011+2.38%+0.29
+142022-12-190.4779+0.009+1.98%+0.24
+302023-01-020.4598-0.009-1.89%-0.23
+602023-01-300.4720+0.003+0.71%+0.09
+902023-02-270.4954+0.027+5.69%+0.70

One volatility unit for this series is 8.13%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901,821,0091,699,5002022-11-01: 1,728,052 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2022-12-01, 1,764,763 tonnes, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-01-01: 1,792,871 tonnes, used for offsets +302023-02-01: 1,711,259 tonnes, used for offsets +602023-03-01: 1,809,250 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-011,728,052-36,711-2.08%-0.40
−142022-11-011,728,052-36,711-2.08%-0.40
−72022-11-011,728,052-36,711-2.08%-0.40
−32022-12-01same print as T01,764,7630.0000.00%0.00
−12022-12-01same print as T01,764,7630.0000.00%0.00
T02022-12-01same print as T01,764,7630.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-01same print as T01,764,7630.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-01same print as T01,764,7630.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-01same print as T01,764,7630.0000.00%0.00
+142022-12-01same print as T01,764,7630.0000.00%0.00
+302023-01-011,792,871+28,108+1.59%+0.30
+602023-02-011,711,259-53,504-3.03%-0.58
+902023-03-011,809,250+44,487+2.52%+0.48

One volatility unit for this series is 5.26%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.049-0.1532022-10-31: 0.0294 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.0109 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.0094 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: -0.0160 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: -0.0337 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: -0.0770 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: -0.0772 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: -0.1336 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.0294+0.029not publishednot published
−142022-11-210.0109+0.011not publishednot published
−72022-11-280.0094+0.009not publishednot published
−32022-11-280.0094+0.009not publishednot published
−12022-11-280.0094+0.009not publishednot published
T02022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-12-12-0.0160-0.016not publishednot published
+142022-12-19-0.0337-0.034not publishednot published
+302023-01-02-0.0770-0.077not publishednot published
+602023-01-30-0.0772-0.077not publishednot published
+902023-02-27-0.1336-0.134not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.032-0.0672022-10-31: 0.0224 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.0124 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.0061 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: -0.0104 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: -0.0259 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: -0.0577 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: -0.0071 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: -0.0161 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.0224+0.022not publishednot published
−142022-11-210.0124+0.012not publishednot published
−72022-11-280.0061+0.006not publishednot published
−32022-11-280.0061+0.006not publishednot published
−12022-11-280.0061+0.006not publishednot published
T02022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-12-12-0.0104-0.010not publishednot published
+142022-12-19-0.0259-0.026not publishednot published
+302023-01-02-0.0577-0.058not publishednot published
+602023-01-30-0.0071-0.007not publishednot published
+902023-02-27-0.0161-0.016not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.6951.4012022-10-31: 1.666 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 1.654 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 1.631 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 1.601 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 1.560 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 1.518 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 1.459 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 1.479 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 1.430 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-311.666+0.065+4.06%+2.64
−142022-11-211.654+0.053+3.32%+2.16
−72022-11-281.631+0.030+1.88%+1.22
−32022-11-281.631+0.030+1.88%+1.22
−12022-11-281.631+0.030+1.88%+1.22
T02022-12-05same print as T01.6010.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T01.6010.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T01.6010.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-121.560-0.041-2.54%-1.65
+142022-12-191.518-0.083-5.17%-3.37
+302023-01-021.459-0.142-8.89%-5.78
+602023-01-301.479-0.122-7.64%-4.97
+902023-02-271.430-0.172-10.72%-6.98

One volatility unit for this series is 1.54%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.4461.2112022-10-31: 1.423 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 1.408 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 1.381 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 1.353 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 1.318 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 1.282 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 1.234 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 1.306 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 1.302 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-311.423+0.070+5.17%+3.41
−142022-11-211.408+0.055+4.04%+2.67
−72022-11-281.381+0.028+2.07%+1.36
−32022-11-281.381+0.028+2.07%+1.36
−12022-11-281.381+0.028+2.07%+1.36
T02022-12-05same print as T01.3530.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T01.3530.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T01.3530.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-121.318-0.035-2.57%-1.70
+142022-12-191.282-0.071-5.25%-3.46
+302023-01-021.234-0.119-8.80%-5.81
+602023-01-301.306-0.047-3.46%-2.28
+902023-02-271.302-0.051-3.79%-2.51

One volatility unit for this series is 1.51%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0820.8372022-10-31: 1.058 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 1.048 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 1.029 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 1.004 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.9701 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.9350 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.8854 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.9022 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.8610 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-311.058+0.054+5.39%+2.23
−142022-11-211.048+0.044+4.41%+1.83
−72022-11-281.029+0.025+2.50%+1.03
−32022-11-281.029+0.025+2.50%+1.03
−12022-11-281.029+0.025+2.50%+1.03
T02022-12-05same print as T01.0040.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T01.0040.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T01.0040.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.9701-0.034-3.38%-1.40
+142022-12-190.9350-0.069-6.87%-2.84
+302023-01-020.8854-0.119-11.81%-4.89
+602023-01-300.9022-0.102-10.15%-4.20
+902023-02-270.8610-0.143-14.24%-5.89

One volatility unit for this series is 2.42%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.8420.6462022-10-31: 0.8228 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.8100 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.7878 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.7645 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.7355 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.7053 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.6652 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.7255 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.7217 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.8228+0.058+7.62%+3.01
−142022-11-210.8100+0.046+5.95%+2.35
−72022-11-280.7878+0.023+3.05%+1.20
−32022-11-280.7878+0.023+3.05%+1.20
−12022-11-280.7878+0.023+3.05%+1.20
T02022-12-05same print as T00.76450.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.76450.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.76450.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.7355-0.029-3.80%-1.50
+142022-12-190.7053-0.059-7.74%-3.05
+302023-01-020.6652-0.099-12.98%-5.12
+602023-01-300.7255-0.039-5.10%-2.01
+902023-02-270.7217-0.043-5.60%-2.21

One volatility unit for this series is 2.54%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6130.5642022-10-31: 0.6080 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.6060 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.6022 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.5972 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.5904 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.5834 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.5735 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.5768 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.5686 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.6080+0.011+1.81%+3.15
−142022-11-210.6060+0.009+1.48%+2.58
−72022-11-280.6022+0.005+0.84%+1.46
−32022-11-280.6022+0.005+0.84%+1.46
−12022-11-280.6022+0.005+0.84%+1.46
T02022-12-05same print as T00.59720.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.59720.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.59720.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.5904-0.007-1.14%-1.97
+142022-12-190.5834-0.014-2.31%-4.02
+302023-01-020.5735-0.024-3.97%-6.90
+602023-01-300.5768-0.020-3.41%-5.93
+902023-02-270.5686-0.029-4.79%-8.32

One volatility unit for this series is 0.58%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6040.5652022-10-31: 0.6002 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.5976 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.5932 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.5885 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.5827 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.5767 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.5687 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.5807 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.5800 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.6002+0.012+1.98%+3.75
−142022-11-210.5976+0.009+1.55%+2.92
−72022-11-280.5932+0.005+0.79%+1.50
−32022-11-280.5932+0.005+0.79%+1.50
−12022-11-280.5932+0.005+0.79%+1.50
T02022-12-05same print as T00.58850.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.58850.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.58850.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.5827-0.006-0.99%-1.86
+142022-12-190.5767-0.012-2.01%-3.80
+302023-01-020.5687-0.020-3.37%-6.37
+602023-01-300.5807-0.008-1.32%-2.50
+902023-02-270.5800-0.009-1.45%-2.75

One volatility unit for this series is 0.53%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90109.929.12022-11-04: 102.1 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 61.92 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 50.19 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-12-02: 47.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 43.40 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-12-06: 42.43 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12022-12-08: 43.18 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-12-12: 45.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 47.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-01-04: 52.92 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-02-03: 39.25 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-03-03: 36.90 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-04102.1+58.716+135.30%+13.75
−142022-11-2161.92+18.524+42.69%+4.34
−72022-11-2850.19+6.790+15.65%+1.59
−32022-12-0247.86+4.464+10.29%+1.05
−12022-12-0247.86+4.464+10.29%+1.05
T02022-12-05same print as T043.400.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-0642.43-0.970-2.24%-0.23
+32022-12-0843.18-0.220-0.51%-0.05
+72022-12-1245.31+1.916+4.42%+0.45
+142022-12-1947.36+3.968+9.14%+0.93
+302023-01-0452.92+9.520+21.94%+2.23
+602023-02-0339.25-4.142-9.54%-0.97
+902023-03-0336.90-6.496-14.97%-1.52

One volatility unit for this series is 9.84%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (737 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9038.9011.122022-11-04: 36.21 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 25.46 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 21.75 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-12-02: 19.76 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 19.67 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-12-06: 20.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12022-12-08: 14.66 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-12-12: 13.81 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 13.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-01-04: 25.20 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-02-03: 24.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-03-03: 25.60 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-0436.21+16.548+84.15%+0.46
−142022-11-2125.46+5.798+29.48%+0.16
−72022-11-2821.75+2.086+10.61%+0.06
−32022-12-0219.76+0.096+0.49%+0.00
−12022-12-0219.76+0.096+0.49%+0.00
T02022-12-05same print as T019.670.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-0620.42+0.752+3.82%+0.02
+32022-12-0814.66-5.008-25.47%-0.14
+72022-12-1213.81-5.854-29.77%-0.16
+142022-12-1913.89-5.776-29.37%-0.16
+302023-01-0425.20+5.530+28.12%+0.15
+602023-02-0324.34+4.678+23.79%+0.13
+902023-03-0325.60+5.936+30.18%+0.17

One volatility unit for this series is 182.43%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (737 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9057.2023.782022-11-04: 51.50 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 42.81 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 30.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-12-02: 31.06 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 27.02 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-12-06: 27.60 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12022-12-08: 35.20 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-12-12: 36.79 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 36.02 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-01-04: 53.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-02-03: 29.38 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-03-03: 39.71 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-0451.50+24.486+90.64%+0.51
−142022-11-2142.81+15.794+58.46%+0.33
−72022-11-2830.74+3.724+13.78%+0.08
−32022-12-0231.06+4.044+14.97%+0.08
−12022-12-0231.06+4.044+14.97%+0.08
T02022-12-05same print as T027.020.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-0627.60+0.584+2.16%+0.01
+32022-12-0835.20+8.180+30.28%+0.17
+72022-12-1236.79+9.770+36.16%+0.21
+142022-12-1936.02+9.008+33.34%+0.19
+302023-01-0453.97+26.950+99.76%+0.57
+602023-02-0329.38+2.368+8.77%+0.05
+902023-03-0339.71+12.698+47.00%+0.27

One volatility unit for this series is 176.40%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (737 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2022-10-31Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2022-12-05. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Nothing published in the windownot published
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only0–1.322 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2023-01) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed80.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2023-01-01)0.00% from the level at T0 = 0.00 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed75.31 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2023-01-04)-9.66% from the level at T0 = -2.14 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed1,792,871 tonnes at +30 d (published 2023-01-01)+1.59% from the level at T0 = +0.30 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed0.8854 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-01-02)-11.81% from the level at T0 = -4.89 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed1.459 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-01-02)-8.89% from the level at T0 = -5.78 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-11-28 to 2023-01-04 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Bulgaria, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022' and country 'bulgaria'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's pre-tax petrol price moved -3.8%, which is 1.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.73546
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -4.509034950032854
    t0_value
    0.76448
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.7960443700293065
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.4970023095681104
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.029020000000000046
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.7960443700293065
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.535763870080118
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.4970023095681104
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.73546
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -4.509034950032854
    t0_value
    0.76448
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.7960443700293065
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.4970023095681104
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.029020000000000046
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.7960443700293065
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.535763870080118
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.4970023095681104

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b3225063e00166e6b6577e47df53feca4d4c36d2f7f279e6d732e9259048fc9c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's pre-tax petrol price moved -13.0%, which is 5.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.66524
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -7.336007275710528
    t0_value
    0.76448
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -12.981372959397236
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.119314583099209
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.09924
    change_pct_from_t0
    -12.981372959397236
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.535763870080118
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.119314583099209
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.66524
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -7.336007275710528
    t0_value
    0.76448
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -12.981372959397236
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.119314583099209
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.09924
    change_pct_from_t0
    -12.981372959397236
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.535763870080118
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.119314583099209

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 94ca395c1727216c0bf13f8fc9c1b8ed25f7044b5215bae76ec1f6fdef50ca1d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's pre-tax petrol price moved -5.6%, which is 2.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.7217
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -5.062995918436796
    t0_value
    0.76448
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -5.595960652992889
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.20681456937711
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.04278000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    -5.595960652992889
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.535763870080118
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.20681456937711
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.7217
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -5.062995918436796
    t0_value
    0.76448
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -5.595960652992889
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.20681456937711
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.04278000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    -5.595960652992889
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.535763870080118
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.20681456937711

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a57dadd1a05368a3d45d460c73ae7979b7d2b3fe17b0e4b8c01dcf0b27f7a308 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -2.6%, which is 1.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.3181800000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -4.509021301419925
    t0_value
    1.353
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -2.573540280857343
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.6992844978197392
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.03481999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.573540280857343
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5144846458373007
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.6992844978197392
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.3181800000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -4.509021301419925
    t0_value
    1.353
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -2.573540280857343
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.6992844978197392
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.03481999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.573540280857343
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5144846458373007
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.6992844978197392

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b3a76f8a3bb11440b98b1a8d8a440adf70aec360a4de1b36e997bf28dfc4b755 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -8.8%, which is 5.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.2339200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -7.335935007832939
    t0_value
    1.353
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -8.801182557280107
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.811338253887856
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.11907999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    -8.801182557280107
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5144846458373007
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.811338253887856
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.2339200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -7.335935007832939
    t0_value
    1.353
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -8.801182557280107
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.811338253887856
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.11907999999999985
    change_pct_from_t0
    -8.801182557280107
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5144846458373007
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.811338253887856

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f944888781feb7c35ed99b99231d7a99c99fcb77b7e471159c2d9b16a297937c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -3.8%, which is 2.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.30167
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -5.062929980423948
    t0_value
    1.353
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.79379157427937
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.5050049762517914
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.051329999999999876
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.79379157427937
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5144846458373007
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.5050049762517914
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.30167
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -5.062929980423948
    t0_value
    1.353
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -3.79379157427937
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.5050049762517914
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.051329999999999876
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.79379157427937
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5144846458373007
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.5050049762517914

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0d85be883257fc824fd6667aa829647ab0a13217450a30840d0d088bc32a7aa0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's pre-tax diesel price moved -3.4%, which is 1.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.9701000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -2.581709757545736
    t0_value
    1.00402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -3.3784187565984585
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.3980397619291773
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.03391999999999984
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.3784187565984585
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.416539821397157
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.3980397619291773
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.9701000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -2.581709757545736
    t0_value
    1.00402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -3.3784187565984585
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.3980397619291773
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.03391999999999984
    change_pct_from_t0
    -3.3784187565984585
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.416539821397157
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.3980397619291773

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 38df84042c90690cfecddb9237c632d460e998076a034abe2d5fca4022aa2997 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's pre-tax diesel price moved -11.8%, which is 4.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.8854400000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -6.313760437539288
    t0_value
    1.00402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -11.810521702754906
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.887368955470588
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1185799999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -11.810521702754906
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.416539821397157
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.887368955470588
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.8854400000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -6.313760437539288
    t0_value
    1.00402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -11.810521702754906
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.887368955470588
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1185799999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -11.810521702754906
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.416539821397157
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.887368955470588

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 075212f6c9099388bef0e9971cb25f77700c7b8264397d49f29f29782edac3e1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's pre-tax diesel price moved -14.2%, which is 5.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.86103
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -7.389821825427822
    t0_value
    1.00402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -14.241748172347162
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.893446508203242
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.14298999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -14.241748172347162
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.416539821397157
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.893446508203242
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.86103
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -7.389821825427822
    t0_value
    1.00402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -14.241748172347162
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.893446508203242
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.14298999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    -14.241748172347162
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.416539821397157
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.893446508203242

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b7fbb8ce6f325ae6e186f886ba958fc39782783a9ecb48b39c1c017108693a26 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -2.5%, which is 1.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.56049
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -2.58151771121338
    t0_value
    1.6011900000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -2.541859492002834
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.6545752116077055
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.04070000000000018
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.541859492002834
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.536261074244536
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.6545752116077055
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.56049
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -2.58151771121338
    t0_value
    1.6011900000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -2.541859492002834
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.6545752116077055
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.04070000000000018
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.541859492002834
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.536261074244536
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.6545752116077055

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 44a835d05c7a5cb76f38573cf81d30c88638b424a5cdadc7e800a4e714a12c2b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -8.9%, which is 5.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.45889
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -6.314142316603904
    t0_value
    1.6011900000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -8.887140189484077
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.7849152975866245
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1423000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -8.887140189484077
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.536261074244536
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.7849152975866245
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.45889
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -6.314142316603904
    t0_value
    1.6011900000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -8.887140189484077
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -5.7849152975866245
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1423000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -8.887140189484077
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.536261074244536
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -5.7849152975866245

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 2ae5b09b3ee6c95d46831a00c1b32ae81365811a64f98e1c7d4fd43bf63fa334 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -10.7%, which is 7.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.42959
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -7.390578349457672
    t0_value
    1.6011900000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -10.717029209525426
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -6.976046838129762
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1716000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    -10.717029209525426
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.536261074244536
    change_in_volatility_units
    -6.976046838129762
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.42959
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    -7.390578349457672
    t0_value
    1.6011900000000001
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -10.717029209525426
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -6.976046838129762
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1716000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    -10.717029209525426
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.536261074244536
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -6.976046838129762

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a2a68fe1a618a3658d97f307a11eae7ae06577fd430415d10f0747198520a0a0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Bulgaria's pre-tax petrol price by -4.2 c/L (range -5.7–-2.6); it actually moved -9.9 c/L, leaving -5.8 c/L not explained by crude.

    about BulgariaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-12-30
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.057710954177595364
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.09924
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.04152904582240463
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.2070376188168671
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    7.428000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.05683092167547153
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    -0.026227169969337834
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.43434263983826
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-12-30
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.057710954177595364
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.09924
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.04152904582240463
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.2070376188168671
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    7.428000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.05683092167547153
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    -0.026227169969337834
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.43434263983826

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint ca0d3dc43869bdbf0bb0c68fb4e8a4df9a4def5f50223e4579890130c2e60355 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Bulgaria's pre-tax petrol price by -2.5 c/L (range -6.0–+0.9); it actually moved -4.5 c/L, leaving -1.9 c/L not explained by crude.

    about BulgariaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-03-06
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.019373373080111268
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.044600000000000084
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.025226626919888816
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.15391245706875872
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    5.5219999999999985
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.05972843619990738
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.009275182360130092
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.43434263983826
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-03-06
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.019373373080111268
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.044600000000000084
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.025226626919888816
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.15391245706875872
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    5.5219999999999985
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.05972843619990738
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.009275182360130092
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.43434263983826

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c7912e9beea1fc43cd694adacc23685ec394de226428274c32d63f469e67b22 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Bulgaria's pre-tax diesel price by -4.2 c/L (range -5.7–-2.6); it actually moved -11.9 c/L, leaving -7.7 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 12.6 $/bbl.

    about BulgariaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-12-30
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.07697427601323806
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.1185799999999998
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.04160572398676173
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.948513147105371
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    12.594000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.0574710430868563
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    -0.025740404886667075
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.842624566455152
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-12-30
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.07697427601323806
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.1185799999999998
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.04160572398676173
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.948513147105371
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    12.594000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.0574710430868563
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    -0.025740404886667075
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.842624566455152

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 7dcf5c5017eab70a92c2580b05f103d58154ad29f6b204a8caa4b8b5c269f840 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Bulgaria's pre-tax diesel price by -0.9 c/L (range -5.5–+3.6); it actually moved -14.9 c/L, leaving -14.0 c/L not explained by crude.

    about BulgariaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-03-06
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.14000139105673365
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.14947
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.00946860894326633
    proxy_volatility_units
    -1.6767707765260176
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -7.161999999999999
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.055220187128723466
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.036282969242190974
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.842624566455152
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-03-06
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.14000139105673365
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.14947
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.00946860894326633
    proxy_volatility_units
    -1.6767707765260176
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -7.161999999999999
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.055220187128723466
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.036282969242190974
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.842624566455152

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint c7f5f16b7b1e5d5659142413ce5100616da98863f2212188eddfb01ba91bee86 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude for Bulgaria in 2022-12 is UNKNOWN: the source reports zero imports for this period, so there is no volume to take a share of - this is a reported zero, not missing data.

    about BulgariaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-12
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Bulgaria
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    value_max_pct
    null
    value_min_pct
    null
    exposure_status
    UNKNOWN
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-12
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Bulgaria
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    value_max_pct
    null
    value_min_pct
    null
    exposure_status
    UNKNOWN
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint ea7c4d10569bd546f1c9d36ca1e341edd9f7e31f0be1ce4c698568f5117525a5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%–2%) for Bulgaria in 2022-12. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about BulgariaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-12
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Bulgaria
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    value_max_pct
    2.02428068363436
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-12
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Bulgaria
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    value_max_pct
    2.02428068363436
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint c10107f27ab0b4dec1610bd32825ae9d842056624c3b414e5eab87fa2021b142 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Whether Bulgaria's crude supply was physically reduced in 2022-12 is UNKNOWN: only 12 month(s) of comparison data, fewer than the 6 required.

    about BulgariaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-12
    country
    Bulgaria
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    0
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    0
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-12
    country
    Bulgaria
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    0
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 43ca304f7232a207cb7b7c908fef45562a92802b33c394e65b6ae6d1aeec4e84 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In 2022-12, Bulgaria's oil stocks stood 11.3% above their trailing 12-month mean, with 80.0 days of cover (as published).

    about BulgariaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-12
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_BG
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    days_of_cover
    80
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    2.124415237504427
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    1764763
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    4
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    1586273.0833333333
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    11.252155668656673
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    11.252155668656673
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    11.3
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-12
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_BG
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    days_of_cover
    80
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    2.124415237504427
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    1764763
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    1586273.0833333333
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    11.252155668656673
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.above v1.1 · Fingerprint 38612148074c48e36c0e3046e0f9d526a6122386baadcf86a39941b298d2378f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Bulgaria around EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about BulgariaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    country
    Bulgaria
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    dependence_band
    null
    dependence_range
    null
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    country
    Bulgaria
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    dependence_band
    null
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    null
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 29ea447d88b0a5f91b78cbc2bf967607666a6bf6083c3a625a945dc3d5ccbcd6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 7 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved -6.4%, which is 1.4 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    78
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -3.919330167431879
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -6.429942418426104
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.424724765497578
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -5.359999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.429942418426104
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.424724765497578
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    78
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -3.919330167431879
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -6.429942418426104
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.424724765497578
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -5.359999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.429942418426104
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.424724765497578

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b54773c6d8ea729448e355679535649a28ea7e4cedc8813dfcf6f2802aab32bd · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. In the 30 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved -9.7%, which is 2.1 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    75.31
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -4.677910199838048
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -9.65690978886756
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-01-04
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.1397452168387128
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -8.049999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.65690978886756
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.1397452168387128
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    75.31
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -4.677910199838048
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -9.65690978886756
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-01-04
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.1397452168387128
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -8.049999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.65690978886756
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.1397452168387128

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a66bdad4120941189e2864b65cefe96af6989d6c7dc9d9e481dad3f463e1452c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. In the 90 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +2.9%, which is 0.6 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    85.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.7366500741888493
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    2.855086372360839
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-03-03
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6326203249784009
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    2.3799999999999955
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.855086372360839
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6326203249784009
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    85.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.7366500741888493
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    2.855086372360839
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-03-03
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6326203249784009
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    2.3799999999999955
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.855086372360839
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6326203249784009

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 95c15aae3aef102cb53ce9861989a6b3fd3d482e297b83dd1613ec9cd40b15cc · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 81f14ddf9bdd5a846c68ffa6a0c2ac90cc0051c094198d9fc185147f886c0b88 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 91941020696deeb37b6bfcb5c4e321ba5865cedc68042d4a64d30524b6fb2549 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint e638c4d7da43b662509013a365f2d13fca0fa20208646d67ade6d6d3b40790a0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint e1f282615a660e84b280ecac2938abde9502c7d8209f04d500d682817c457aef · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Bulgaria: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.