Fuel Origin

Events / Import ban

EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)

Dates
2022-12-05 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
European Union

What the sources said

Sixth package of EU sanctions, adopted 3 June 2022 (Council Regulation (EU) 2022/879 amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014). European Commission, 3 June 2022: "a complete import ban on all Russian seaborne crude oil and petroleum products"; "For seaborne crude oil, spot market transactions and execution of existing contracts will be permitted for six months after entry into force, while for petroleum products, these will be permitted for eight months." Eurostat, 19 June 2023: "The ban on imports of seaborne crude oil entered into force on 5 December 2022, while the ban on petroleum products took effect on 5 February 2023." Temporary derogations apply to pipeline crude for certain member states and to Bulgaria and Croatia, so reported imports from Russia do not fall to zero. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-23 07:22 UTCRevision 1
Source documents (3)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Lithuania, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

273 published readings, 13 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90102.472.42022-11-04: 99.53 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 88.44 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 83.50 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-12-02: 86.54 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 83.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-12-06: 79.92 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12022-12-08: 76.02 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-12-12: 78.00 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 81.66 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-01-04: 75.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-02-03: 78.85 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-03-03: 85.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-0499.53+16.170+19.40%+4.30
−142022-11-2188.44+5.080+6.09%+1.35
−72022-11-2883.50+0.140+0.17%+0.04
−32022-12-0286.54+3.180+3.81%+0.85
−12022-12-0286.54+3.180+3.81%+0.85
T02022-12-05same print as T083.360.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-0679.92-3.440-4.13%-0.91
+32022-12-0876.02-7.340-8.81%-1.95
+72022-12-1278.00-5.360-6.43%-1.42
+142022-12-1981.66-1.700-2.04%-0.45
+302023-01-0475.31-8.050-9.66%-2.14
+602023-02-0378.85-4.510-5.41%-1.20
+902023-03-0385.74+2.380+2.86%+0.63

One volatility unit for this series is 4.51%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (760 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90899,892547,6082022-11-01: 712,800 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2022-12-01, 865,800 tonnes, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-01-01: 773,600 tonnes, used for offsets +302023-02-01: 581,700 tonnes, used for offsets +602023-03-01: 790,300 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-01712,800-153,000-17.67%-0.45
−142022-11-01712,800-153,000-17.67%-0.45
−72022-11-01712,800-153,000-17.67%-0.45
−32022-12-01same print as T0865,8000.0000.00%0.00
−12022-12-01same print as T0865,8000.0000.00%0.00
T02022-12-01same print as T0865,8000.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-01same print as T0865,8000.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-01same print as T0865,8000.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-01same print as T0865,8000.0000.00%0.00
+142022-12-01same print as T0865,8000.0000.00%0.00
+302023-01-01773,600-92,200-10.65%-0.27
+602023-02-01581,700-284,100-32.81%-0.84
+902023-03-01790,300-75,500-8.72%-0.22

One volatility unit for this series is 39.03%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1291.0352022-10-31: 1.119 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 1.120 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 1.095 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 1.074 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 1.052 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 1.044 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 1.044 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 1.071 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 1.080 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-311.119+0.045+4.18%+1.05
−142022-11-211.120+0.046+4.29%+1.08
−72022-11-281.095+0.021+1.96%+0.50
−32022-11-281.095+0.021+1.96%+0.50
−12022-11-281.095+0.021+1.96%+0.50
T02022-12-05same print as T01.0740.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T01.0740.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T01.0740.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-121.052-0.022-2.08%-0.52
+142022-12-191.044-0.030-2.76%-0.70
+302023-01-021.044-0.030-2.76%-0.70
+602023-01-301.071-0.003-0.29%-0.07
+902023-02-271.080+0.006+0.57%+0.14

One volatility unit for this series is 3.96%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9090.8082022-10-31: 0.8997 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.8914 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.8692 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.8483 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.8284 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.8209 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.8180 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.8337 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.8366 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.8997+0.051+6.06%+2.65
−142022-11-210.8914+0.043+5.08%+2.22
−72022-11-280.8692+0.021+2.46%+1.07
−32022-11-280.8692+0.021+2.46%+1.07
−12022-11-280.8692+0.021+2.46%+1.07
T02022-12-05same print as T00.84830.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.84830.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.84830.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.8284-0.020-2.35%-1.03
+142022-12-190.8209-0.027-3.23%-1.41
+302023-01-020.8180-0.030-3.58%-1.56
+602023-01-300.8337-0.015-1.72%-0.75
+902023-02-270.8366-0.012-1.38%-0.61

One volatility unit for this series is 2.29%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1060.9742022-11-04: 0.9872 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 1.025 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 1.046 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72022-12-02: 1.054 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 1.059 US dollars per euro, used for offsets T02022-12-06: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +12022-12-08: 1.052 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32022-12-12: 1.056 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 1.060 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142023-01-04: 1.060 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302023-02-03: 1.094 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602023-03-03: 1.062 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-040.9872-0.072-6.75%-13.43
−142022-11-211.025-0.034-3.22%-6.40
−72022-11-281.046-0.012-1.17%-2.33
−32022-12-021.054-0.005-0.46%-0.92
−12022-12-021.054-0.005-0.46%-0.92
T02022-12-05same print as T01.0590.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-061.052-0.007-0.67%-1.33
+32022-12-081.052-0.007-0.64%-1.28
+72022-12-121.056-0.002-0.24%-0.47
+142022-12-191.060+0.001+0.10%+0.21
+302023-01-041.060+0.001+0.11%+0.23
+602023-02-031.094+0.035+3.31%+6.57
+902023-03-031.062+0.003+0.26%+0.53

One volatility unit for this series is 0.50%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9064.510.002022-11-01: 0 to 23.45 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-12-01: 0 to 37.98 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-01-01: 0 to 33.15 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-02-01: 0 to 57.60 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2023-03-01: 0 to 31.18 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-010–23.45not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-11-010–23.45not publishednot publishednot published
−72022-11-010–23.45not publishednot publishednot published
−32022-12-010–37.98not publishednot publishednot published
−12022-12-010–37.98not publishednot publishednot published
T02022-12-010–37.98not publishednot publishednot published
+12022-12-010–37.98not publishednot publishednot published
+32022-12-010–37.98not publishednot publishednot published
+72022-12-010–37.98not publishednot publishednot published
+142022-12-010–37.98not publishednot publishednot published
+302023-01-010–33.15not publishednot publishednot published
+602023-02-010–57.60not publishednot publishednot published
+902023-03-010–31.18not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0000.0002022-11-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2022-12-01, 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-01-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +302023-02-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +602023-03-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-0100.000not publishednot published
−142022-11-0100.000not publishednot published
−72022-11-0100.000not publishednot published
−32022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+142022-12-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+302023-01-0100.000not publishednot published
+602023-02-0100.000not publishednot published
+902023-03-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9086.2483.762022-11-01: 84.00 days of cover, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2022-12-01, 86.00 days of cover, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-01-01: 86.00 days of cover, used for offsets +302023-02-01: 86.00 days of cover, used for offsets +602023-03-01: 86.00 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-0184.00-2.000-2.33%-1.14
−142022-11-0184.00-2.000-2.33%-1.14
−72022-11-0184.00-2.000-2.33%-1.14
−32022-12-01same print as T086.000.0000.00%0.00
−12022-12-01same print as T086.000.0000.00%0.00
T02022-12-01same print as T086.000.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-01same print as T086.000.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-01same print as T086.000.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-01same print as T086.000.0000.00%0.00
+142022-12-01same print as T086.000.0000.00%0.00
+302023-01-0186.000.0000.00%0.00
+602023-02-0186.000.0000.00%0.00
+902023-03-0186.000.0000.00%0.00

One volatility unit for this series is 2.03%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6280.4422022-10-31: 0.6104 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.5263 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.5123 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.4687 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.4798 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.4779 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.4598 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.4720 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.4954 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.6104+0.142+30.24%+3.72
−142022-11-210.5263+0.058+12.30%+1.51
−72022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
−32022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
−12022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
T02022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.4798+0.011+2.38%+0.29
+142022-12-190.4779+0.009+1.98%+0.24
+302023-01-020.4598-0.009-1.89%-0.23
+602023-01-300.4720+0.003+0.71%+0.09
+902023-02-270.4954+0.027+5.69%+0.70

One volatility unit for this series is 8.13%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6280.4422022-10-31: 0.6104 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.5263 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.5123 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.4687 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.4798 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.4779 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.4598 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.4720 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.4954 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.6104+0.142+30.24%+3.72
−142022-11-210.5263+0.058+12.30%+1.51
−72022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
−32022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
−12022-11-280.5123+0.044+9.31%+1.15
T02022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.46870.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.4798+0.011+2.38%+0.29
+142022-12-190.4779+0.009+1.98%+0.24
+302023-01-020.4598-0.009-1.89%-0.23
+602023-01-300.4720+0.003+0.71%+0.09
+902023-02-270.4954+0.027+5.69%+0.70

One volatility unit for this series is 8.13%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901,185,8961,023,7042022-11-01: 1,130,400 tonnes, used for offsets −30, −14, −7same print as T0 — 2022-12-01, 1,112,000 tonnes, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +142023-01-01: 1,156,600 tonnes, used for offsets +302023-02-01: 1,039,400 tonnes, used for offsets +602023-03-01: 1,170,200 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-011,130,400+18,400+1.65%+0.22
−142022-11-011,130,400+18,400+1.65%+0.22
−72022-11-011,130,400+18,400+1.65%+0.22
−32022-12-01same print as T01,112,0000.0000.00%0.00
−12022-12-01same print as T01,112,0000.0000.00%0.00
T02022-12-01same print as T01,112,0000.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-01same print as T01,112,0000.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-01same print as T01,112,0000.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-01same print as T01,112,0000.0000.00%0.00
+142022-12-01same print as T01,112,0000.0000.00%0.00
+302023-01-011,156,600+44,600+4.01%+0.54
+602023-02-011,039,400-72,600-6.53%-0.88
+902023-03-011,170,200+58,200+5.23%+0.71

One volatility unit for this series is 7.41%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.110-0.1652022-10-31: 0.0836 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.0209 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.0066 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: -0.0085 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: -0.0408 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: -0.0516 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: -0.0445 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: -0.1386 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.0836+0.084not publishednot published
−142022-11-210.0209+0.021not publishednot published
−72022-11-280.0066+0.007not publishednot published
−32022-11-280.0066+0.007not publishednot published
−12022-11-280.0066+0.007not publishednot published
T02022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-12-12-0.0085-0.009not publishednot published
+142022-12-19-0.0408-0.041not publishednot published
+302023-01-02-0.0516-0.052not publishednot published
+602023-01-30-0.0445-0.044not publishednot published
+902023-02-27-0.1386-0.139not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.056-0.0712022-10-31: 0.0437 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.0037 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: -0.0005 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: -0.0038 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: -0.0410 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: -0.0584 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: -0.0400 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: -0.0481 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.0437+0.044not publishednot published
−142022-11-210.0037+0.004not publishednot published
−72022-11-28-0.0005-0.000not publishednot published
−32022-11-28-0.0005-0.000not publishednot published
−12022-11-28-0.0005-0.000not publishednot published
T02022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-12-05same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-12-12-0.0038-0.004not publishednot published
+142022-12-19-0.0410-0.041not publishednot published
+302023-01-02-0.0584-0.058not publishednot published
+602023-01-30-0.0400-0.040not publishednot published
+902023-02-27-0.0481-0.048not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.9431.5522022-10-31: 1.905 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 1.831 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 1.783 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 1.750 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 1.712 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 1.664 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 1.651 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 1.692 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 1.589 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-311.905+0.155+8.88%+4.20
−142022-11-211.831+0.081+4.63%+2.19
−72022-11-281.783+0.033+1.91%+0.90
−32022-11-281.783+0.033+1.91%+0.90
−12022-11-281.783+0.033+1.91%+0.90
T02022-12-05same print as T01.7500.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T01.7500.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T01.7500.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-121.712-0.037-2.13%-1.01
+142022-12-191.664-0.085-4.87%-2.30
+302023-01-021.651-0.098-5.62%-2.66
+602023-01-301.692-0.058-3.29%-1.56
+902023-02-271.589-0.160-9.16%-4.33

One volatility unit for this series is 2.11%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.7321.4562022-10-31: 1.705 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 1.647 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 1.615 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 1.590 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 1.562 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 1.508 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 1.483 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 1.524 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 1.518 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-311.705+0.115+7.23%+4.29
−142022-11-211.647+0.057+3.55%+2.11
−72022-11-281.615+0.025+1.55%+0.92
−32022-11-281.615+0.025+1.55%+0.92
−12022-11-281.615+0.025+1.55%+0.92
T02022-12-05same print as T01.5900.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T01.5900.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T01.5900.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-121.562-0.029-1.81%-1.07
+142022-12-191.508-0.083-5.20%-3.09
+302023-01-021.483-0.107-6.75%-4.01
+602023-01-301.524-0.066-4.16%-2.47
+902023-02-271.518-0.072-4.55%-2.70

One volatility unit for this series is 1.68%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2340.9102022-10-31: 1.203 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 1.141 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 1.102 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 1.074 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 1.043 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 1.004 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.9927 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 1.026 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.9416 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-311.203+0.128+11.96%+3.79
−142022-11-211.141+0.067+6.23%+1.97
−72022-11-281.102+0.028+2.58%+0.82
−32022-11-281.102+0.028+2.58%+0.82
−12022-11-281.102+0.028+2.58%+0.82
T02022-12-05same print as T01.0740.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T01.0740.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T01.0740.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-121.043-0.031-2.87%-0.91
+142022-12-191.004-0.070-6.56%-2.08
+302023-01-020.9927-0.081-7.57%-2.40
+602023-01-301.026-0.048-4.43%-1.40
+902023-02-270.9416-0.132-12.33%-3.90

One volatility unit for this series is 3.16%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9650.7382022-10-31: 0.9434 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.8950 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.8687 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.8483 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.8245 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.7799 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.7596 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.7937 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.7885 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.9434+0.095+11.21%+3.99
−142022-11-210.8950+0.047+5.51%+1.96
−72022-11-280.8687+0.020+2.40%+0.86
−32022-11-280.8687+0.020+2.40%+0.86
−12022-11-280.8687+0.020+2.40%+0.86
T02022-12-05same print as T00.84830.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.84830.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.84830.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.8245-0.024-2.80%-1.00
+142022-12-190.7799-0.068-8.06%-2.87
+302023-01-020.7596-0.089-10.46%-3.73
+602023-01-300.7937-0.055-6.44%-2.29
+902023-02-270.7885-0.060-7.05%-2.51

One volatility unit for this series is 2.81%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7090.6412022-10-31: 0.7026 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.6897 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.6815 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.6757 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.6692 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.6609 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.6586 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.6657 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.6479 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.7026+0.027+3.99%+4.09
−142022-11-210.6897+0.014+2.08%+2.13
−72022-11-280.6815+0.006+0.86%+0.88
−32022-11-280.6815+0.006+0.86%+0.88
−12022-11-280.6815+0.006+0.86%+0.88
T02022-12-05same print as T00.67570.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.67570.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.67570.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.6692-0.006-0.96%-0.98
+142022-12-190.6609-0.015-2.19%-2.24
+302023-01-020.6586-0.017-2.53%-2.59
+602023-01-300.6657-0.010-1.48%-1.52
+902023-02-270.6479-0.028-4.12%-4.22

One volatility unit for this series is 0.98%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7670.7192022-10-31: 0.7620 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 0.7518 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 0.7463 € per litre, used for offsets −7, −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 0.7420 € per litre, used for offsets T0, +1, +32022-12-12: 0.7370 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 0.7276 € per litre, used for offsets +142023-01-02: 0.7234 € per litre, used for offsets +302023-01-30: 0.7305 € per litre, used for offsets +602023-02-27: 0.7295 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-10-310.7620+0.020+2.69%+3.50
−142022-11-210.7518+0.010+1.32%+1.72
−72022-11-280.7463+0.004+0.58%+0.75
−32022-11-280.7463+0.004+0.58%+0.75
−12022-11-280.7463+0.004+0.58%+0.75
T02022-12-05same print as T00.74200.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-05same print as T00.74200.0000.00%0.00
+32022-12-05same print as T00.74200.0000.00%0.00
+72022-12-120.7370-0.005-0.67%-0.88
+142022-12-190.7276-0.014-1.94%-2.52
+302023-01-020.7234-0.019-2.51%-3.27
+602023-01-300.7305-0.011-1.55%-2.01
+902023-02-270.7295-0.013-1.69%-2.20

One volatility unit for this series is 0.77%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90109.929.12022-11-04: 102.1 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 61.92 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 50.19 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-12-02: 47.86 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 43.40 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-12-06: 42.43 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12022-12-08: 43.18 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-12-12: 45.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 47.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-01-04: 52.92 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-02-03: 39.25 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-03-03: 36.90 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-04102.1+58.716+135.30%+13.75
−142022-11-2161.92+18.524+42.69%+4.34
−72022-11-2850.19+6.790+15.65%+1.59
−32022-12-0247.86+4.464+10.29%+1.05
−12022-12-0247.86+4.464+10.29%+1.05
T02022-12-05same print as T043.400.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-0642.43-0.970-2.24%-0.23
+32022-12-0843.18-0.220-0.51%-0.05
+72022-12-1245.31+1.916+4.42%+0.45
+142022-12-1947.36+3.968+9.14%+0.93
+302023-01-0452.92+9.520+21.94%+2.23
+602023-02-0339.25-4.142-9.54%-0.97
+902023-03-0336.90-6.496-14.97%-1.52

One volatility unit for this series is 9.84%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (737 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9038.9011.122022-11-04: 36.21 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 25.46 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 21.75 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-12-02: 19.76 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 19.67 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-12-06: 20.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12022-12-08: 14.66 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-12-12: 13.81 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 13.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-01-04: 25.20 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-02-03: 24.34 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-03-03: 25.60 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-0436.21+16.548+84.15%+0.46
−142022-11-2125.46+5.798+29.48%+0.16
−72022-11-2821.75+2.086+10.61%+0.06
−32022-12-0219.76+0.096+0.49%+0.00
−12022-12-0219.76+0.096+0.49%+0.00
T02022-12-05same print as T019.670.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-0620.42+0.752+3.82%+0.02
+32022-12-0814.66-5.008-25.47%-0.14
+72022-12-1213.81-5.854-29.77%-0.16
+142022-12-1913.89-5.776-29.37%-0.16
+302023-01-0425.20+5.530+28.12%+0.15
+602023-02-0324.34+4.678+23.79%+0.13
+902023-03-0325.60+5.936+30.18%+0.17

One volatility unit for this series is 182.43%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (737 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9057.2023.782022-11-04: 51.50 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-11-21: 42.81 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-11-28: 30.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-12-02: 31.06 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3, −1same print as T0 — 2022-12-05, 27.02 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-12-06: 27.60 $ per barrel, used for offsets +12022-12-08: 35.20 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32022-12-12: 36.79 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-12-19: 36.02 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142023-01-04: 53.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302023-02-03: 29.38 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602023-03-03: 39.71 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-11-0451.50+24.486+90.64%+0.51
−142022-11-2142.81+15.794+58.46%+0.33
−72022-11-2830.74+3.724+13.78%+0.08
−32022-12-0231.06+4.044+14.97%+0.08
−12022-12-0231.06+4.044+14.97%+0.08
T02022-12-05same print as T027.020.0000.00%0.00
+12022-12-0627.60+0.584+2.16%+0.01
+32022-12-0835.20+8.180+30.28%+0.17
+72022-12-1236.79+9.770+36.16%+0.21
+142022-12-1936.02+9.008+33.34%+0.19
+302023-01-0453.97+26.950+99.76%+0.57
+602023-02-0329.38+2.368+8.77%+0.05
+902023-03-0339.71+12.698+47.00%+0.27

One volatility unit for this series is 176.40%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (737 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2022-10-31Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2022-12-05. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only0–33.15 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2023-01) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Observed0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2023-01-01)
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed86.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2023-01-01)0.00% from the level at T0 = 0.00 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed75.31 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2023-01-04)-9.66% from the level at T0 = -2.14 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed1,156,600 tonnes at +30 d (published 2023-01-01)+4.01% from the level at T0 = +0.54 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed0.9927 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-01-02)-7.57% from the level at T0 = -2.40 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed1.651 € per litre at +30 d (published 2023-01-02)-5.62% from the level at T0 = -2.66 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-11-28 to 2023-01-04 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Lithuania, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022' and country 'lithuania'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's pre-tax petrol price moved -2.8%, which is 1.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.8245399999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -4.781420049534999
    t0_value
    0.84831
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -2.802041706451659
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.9986468829277573
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.02377000000000007
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.802041706451659
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.805838334203623
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.9986468829277573
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.8245399999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -4.781420049534999
    t0_value
    0.84831
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -2.802041706451659
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.9986468829277573
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.02377000000000007
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.802041706451659
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.805838334203623
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.9986468829277573

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c69cb38d970524416e3d6aeed601444a8763f365ba3953cfea34aac36b7690b5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's pre-tax petrol price moved -10.5%, which is 3.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.7595700000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -7.796074737292077
    t0_value
    0.84831
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -10.460798528839685
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.7282256790495945
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.08873999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    -10.460798528839685
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.805838334203623
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.7282256790495945
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.7595700000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -7.796074737292077
    t0_value
    0.84831
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -10.460798528839685
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.7282256790495945
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.08873999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    -10.460798528839685
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.805838334203623
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.7282256790495945

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 6b8099ed6828af97b139218820fa79582884ef6675758728513c4b276cdc110e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's pre-tax petrol price moved -7.0%, which is 2.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.78851
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -6.453237940867728
    t0_value
    0.84831
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -7.049309804198933
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.512372048762292
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.059799999999999964
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.049309804198933
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.805838334203623
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.512372048762292
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.78851
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -6.453237940867728
    t0_value
    0.84831
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -7.049309804198933
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.512372048762292
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.059799999999999964
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.049309804198933
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.805838334203623
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.512372048762292

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 7ec29f347dd1c5b78e909d5d4073a8cbe60a57cc92937d9a485ae331ed096f4d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -1.8%, which is 1.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.56155
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -4.781452753845595
    t0_value
    1.59032
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -1.8090698727300143
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.0742001261652527
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.028769999999999962
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.8090698727300143
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6841087881716656
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.0742001261652527
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.56155
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -4.781452753845595
    t0_value
    1.59032
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -1.8090698727300143
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.0742001261652527
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.028769999999999962
    change_pct_from_t0
    -1.8090698727300143
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6841087881716656
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.0742001261652527

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3a8cee6864f330229e557b69476c7b726bd838c7359f82ec0fe368c01a0197e5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -6.8%, which is 4.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.4829400000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -7.795949002305154
    t0_value
    1.59032
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -6.752100206247788
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.009301687439166
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.10737999999999981
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.752100206247788
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6841087881716656
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.009301687439166
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.4829400000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -7.795949002305154
    t0_value
    1.59032
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -6.752100206247788
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.009301687439166
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.10737999999999981
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.752100206247788
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6841087881716656
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.009301687439166

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a296a5fa94777be8b55c0071e84d7a2125f7917439132dff102a07ce48bdfbe3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's tax-inclusive petrol price moved -4.6%, which is 2.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.51796
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -6.453019875971946
    t0_value
    1.59032
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -4.5500276673876945
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.7017421317107324
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.07235999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -4.5500276673876945
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6841087881716656
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.7017421317107324
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.51796
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -6.453019875971946
    t0_value
    1.59032
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    -4.5500276673876945
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.7017421317107324
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.07235999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -4.5500276673876945
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6841087881716656
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.7017421317107324

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d82916a0d77ceb23b470d85c152d2760f3d178f87fdad1869eab89dd01df5f9c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's pre-tax diesel price moved -2.9%, which is 0.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.04316
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -2.112157571740063
    t0_value
    1.07402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -2.873317070445605
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.909500054744932
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.030859999999999888
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.873317070445605
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1592269351225304
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.909500054744932
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.04316
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -2.112157571740063
    t0_value
    1.07402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -2.873317070445605
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -0.909500054744932
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.030859999999999888
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.873317070445605
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1592269351225304
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -0.909500054744932

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 47361f15eb95d865dd2d17b75488db5460f5981fa0c9e3d239689bfe9dd76988 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's pre-tax diesel price moved -7.6%, which is 2.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.9927400000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -3.087319394573972
    t0_value
    1.07402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -7.567829276922209
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.395468711914072
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.08127999999999991
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.567829276922209
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1592269351225304
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.395468711914072
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.9927400000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -3.087319394573972
    t0_value
    1.07402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -7.567829276922209
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.395468711914072
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.08127999999999991
    change_pct_from_t0
    -7.567829276922209
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1592269351225304
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.395468711914072

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f5e16f3b6fd0eb46e72508f29a29e802f6e43ca10613657c8b3616bb83b0748d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's pre-tax diesel price moved -12.3%, which is 3.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.9416
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -4.076406574655808
    t0_value
    1.07402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -12.32937934116683
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.9026570722399323
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.13241999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -12.32937934116683
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1592269351225304
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.9026570722399323
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    0.9416
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -4.076406574655808
    t0_value
    1.07402
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -12.32937934116683
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -3.9026570722399323
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.13241999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    -12.32937934116683
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    3.1592269351225304
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -3.9026570722399323

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 74a5751b98d57c9affb263217f1a2cf434ab783c5c2d1d16d968f53e4284420a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -2.1%, which is 1.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.71234
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -2.1122682407666558
    t0_value
    1.7496900000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -2.1346638547399945
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.009433054211439
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.037350000000000216
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.1346638547399945
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.114715627583225
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.009433054211439
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.71234
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -2.1122682407666558
    t0_value
    1.7496900000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -2.1346638547399945
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.009433054211439
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.037350000000000216
    change_pct_from_t0
    -2.1346638547399945
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.114715627583225
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.009433054211439

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 37db6151467dcd7b21df796549fde7a4dd051038d9cb2eb4f74f9674f701205e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -5.6%, which is 2.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.65133
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -3.0874901893580455
    t0_value
    1.7496900000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -5.62156724905556
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.658308841023743
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.09836000000000023
    change_pct_from_t0
    -5.62156724905556
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.114715627583225
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.658308841023743
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.65133
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -3.0874901893580455
    t0_value
    1.7496900000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -5.62156724905556
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.658308841023743
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.09836000000000023
    change_pct_from_t0
    -5.62156724905556
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.114715627583225
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.658308841023743

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint dede48786a519bc845f12ecd5108c860cdb5b09c20150fb08dbda27a28bbf18c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), Lithuania's tax-inclusive diesel price moved -9.2%, which is 4.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.58946
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -4.076458915130036
    t0_value
    1.7496900000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -9.157622207362452
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.330427263086962
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1602300000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.157622207362452
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.114715627583225
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.330427263086962
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    1.58946
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    z_score
    -4.076458915130036
    t0_value
    1.7496900000000002
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    -9.157622207362452
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_LT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2023-02-27
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -4.330427263086962
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -0.1602300000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.157622207362452
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    6
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.114715627583225
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -4.330427263086962

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint bd6bc5a965ace2c4de4992cf667bf72f76d8f8eb3b28a417a1f9d6b23b5f79ac · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Lithuania's pre-tax petrol price by -3.0 c/L (range -4.1–-2.0); it actually moved -8.9 c/L, leaving -5.8 c/L not explained by crude.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Lithuania
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-12-30
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.058384772001350956
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.08873999999999993
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.030355227998648975
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.2070376188168671
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    7.428000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.040785796072671875
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    -0.019924659924625904
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.43434263983826
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Lithuania
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-12-30
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.058384772001350956
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.08873999999999993
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.030355227998648975
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.2070376188168671
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    7.428000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.040785796072671875
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    -0.019924659924625904
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.43434263983826

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint efa8a957f7821ca2b5b91b18c3090d72589c55641f9e21e5c8a79ef50c5d91b3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Lithuania's pre-tax petrol price by -0.9 c/L (range -3.9–+2.2); it actually moved -5.1 c/L, leaving -4.2 c/L not explained by crude.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Lithuania
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-03-06
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.04243661452791069
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.050960000000000005
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.008523385472089313
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.15391245706875872
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    5.5219999999999985
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.038627360881718004
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.02158058993753899
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.43434263983826
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Lithuania
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2023-03-06
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.04243661452791069
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.050960000000000005
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.008523385472089313
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.15391245706875872
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    5.5219999999999985
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.038627360881718004
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.02158058993753899
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    182.43434263983826

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint e2d706fdd480abf3799aebbc24028d8878df05d54cdcabc66d919e25c6e39b48 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Over the 4 weeks after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Lithuania's pre-tax diesel price by -3.0 c/L (range -3.9–-2.1); it actually moved -8.1 c/L, leaving -5.2 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 12.6 $/bbl.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Lithuania
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-12-30
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.05163240065148664
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.08127999999999991
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.029647599348513267
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.948513147105371
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    12.594000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.038587637566013175
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    -0.020707561131012714
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.842624566455152
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Lithuania
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-12-30
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-01-02
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.05163240065148664
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.08127999999999991
    expected_eur_per_litre
    -0.029647599348513267
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.948513147105371
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    12.594000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.038587637566013175
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    -0.020707561131012714
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.842624566455152

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 8d138adeffca3f71a81cfe3c03a21f571a02abdf7f5e7608e58a1300da7317ad · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Over the 13 weeks after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Lithuania's pre-tax diesel price by +1.2 c/L (range -2.2–+4.5); it actually moved -13.0 c/L, leaving -14.2 c/L not explained by crude.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Lithuania
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-03-06
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.14188294230080334
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.13007999999999986
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.01180294230080347
    proxy_volatility_units
    -1.6767707765260176
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -7.161999999999999
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.021553910981536813
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.0451597955831454
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.842624566455152
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Lithuania
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2023-03-06
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2022-12-05
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2023-03-06
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.14188294230080334
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-12-05
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    -0.13007999999999986
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.01180294230080347
    proxy_volatility_units
    -1.6767707765260176
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -7.161999999999999
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.021553910981536813
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.0451597955831454
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    9.842624566455152

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint cad933de8d135281b7cd08238eedbbcc71c55407bfaee2ed57db6a384e7722a2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was significant (0%–38%) for Lithuania in 2022-12. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-12
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Lithuania
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    value_max_pct
    37.978747978748
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-12
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Lithuania
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    value_max_pct
    37.978747978748
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 3efe79dec85ca3aec6fcec0e2c92496db118721df7ea1f1c2d8de7a10ab44723 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%) for Lithuania in 2022-12.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedLow
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-12
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-12
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint 8348cf903c0bdd5c90ff594324b5b46a15c001e510d56f63bc31d3bd110948ad · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Available evidence does not show a physical supply reduction: Lithuania's reported crude imports in 2022-12 were +28.1% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-12
    country
    Lithuania
    change_pct
    28.070607958187463
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    865800
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    676033.3333333334
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-12
    country
    Lithuania
    change_pct
    28.070607958187463
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    865800
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    676033.3333333334
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.no_reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint 251e38b0e329a06b57ef450f45fee9d41fe6553589b506de0210438b4b7c548e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In 2022-12, Lithuania's oil stocks stood 0.5% below their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 86.0 days of cover (as published).

    about LithuaniaCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-12
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_LT
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    days_of_cover
    86
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -1.6277423920736023
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    1112000
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    4
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    1118000
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -0.5366726296958862
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    -0.5366726296958862
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    -0.5
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-12
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Lithuania
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_LT
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    days_of_cover
    86
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -1.6277423920736023
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-12-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    1112000
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    1118000
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -0.5366726296958862
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint ecc41eea4b0d7af2f7635179fe06b6c4bd468ec066f618a4defdedf9e2a35e84 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Lithuania around EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was significant (0–38%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about LithuaniaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    country
    Lithuania
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    dependence_band
    significant
    dependence_range
    0–38%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    country
    Lithuania
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    LT
    country_name
    Lithuania
    country_slug
    lithuania
    dependence_band
    significant
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    0–38%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 503203b656def592e0db3353f352a610f70dead60e4dc2d45d501350ac9c4e75 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 7 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved -6.4%, which is 1.4 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    78
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -3.919330167431879
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -6.429942418426104
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.424724765497578
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -5.359999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.429942418426104
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.424724765497578
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    78
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -3.919330167431879
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -6.429942418426104
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-12-12
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -1.424724765497578
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -5.359999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    -6.429942418426104
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -1.424724765497578

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b54773c6d8ea729448e355679535649a28ea7e4cedc8813dfcf6f2802aab32bd · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. In the 30 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved -9.7%, which is 2.1 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    75.31
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -4.677910199838048
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -9.65690978886756
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-01-04
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.1397452168387128
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -8.049999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.65690978886756
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.1397452168387128
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    75.31
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -4.677910199838048
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    -9.65690978886756
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-01-04
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    -2.1397452168387128
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    -8.049999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    -9.65690978886756
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    -2.1397452168387128

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a66bdad4120941189e2864b65cefe96af6989d6c7dc9d9e481dad3f463e1452c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. In the 90 days after EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +2.9%, which is 0.6 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    85.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.7366500741888493
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    2.855086372360839
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-03-03
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6326203249784009
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    2.3799999999999955
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.855086372360839
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6326203249784009
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    value
    85.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    -1.7366500741888493
    t0_value
    83.36
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    2.855086372360839
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2023-03-03
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.6326203249784009
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    2.3799999999999955
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.855086372360839
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.513111987760301
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.6326203249784009

    Template event.benchmark_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 95c15aae3aef102cb53ce9861989a6b3fd3d482e297b83dd1613ec9cd40b15cc · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 81f14ddf9bdd5a846c68ffa6a0c2ac90cc0051c094198d9fc185147f886c0b88 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 91941020696deeb37b6bfcb5c4e321ba5865cedc68042d4a64d30524b6fb2549 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint e638c4d7da43b662509013a365f2d13fca0fa20208646d67ade6d6d3b40790a0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-12-05T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)
    event_slug
    eu-russia-crude-embargo-2022
    event_type
    EMBARGO
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint e1f282615a660e84b280ecac2938abde9502c7d8209f04d500d682817c457aef · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Lithuania: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.