L-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)

Dati: 24/02/2022 → l-ebda data tat-tmiem irreġistrata
Preċiżjoni tad-data: jum
Status: Għadu għaddej
Ambitu: L-Ukrajna

X’qalu s-sorsi (bl-Ingliż)

European Council, special meeting of 24 February 2022, document EUCO 18/22: "European Council conclusions on Russia's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine"; "The European Council condemns in the strongest possible terms the Russian Federation's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine." The conclusions are dated and headed 24 February 2022, which is the date recorded here. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

L-AIE, l-EIA, il-Kummissjoni Ewropea, il-Kunsill Ewropew u leġiżlaturi nazzjonali (iċċitati għal kull ringiela)Uffiċjali

Miġbur 23/09/2026 07:22 UTCReviżjoni 1

Dokumenti tas-sors (2)

PajjiżIl-Ġermanja Franza In-Netherlands Il-Polonja Il-Finlandja L-Estonja L-Awstrija Il-Belġju Il-Bulgarija Il-Kroazja Ċipru Iċ-Ċekja Id-Danimarka Il-Greċja L-Ungerija L-Irlanda L-Italja Il-Latvja Il-Litwanja Il-Lussemburgu Malta Il-Portugall Ir-Rumanija Is-Slovakkja Is-Slovenja Spanja L-Iżvezja

KarburantDiżil (żejt tal-gass għall-vetturi)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Iż-żewġ karburanti

Jekk tagħżel karburant, jinżammu s-serje ta’ dak il-karburant u l-kanali komuni għall-karburanti kollha – il-prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, ir-rata tal-kambju, l-importazzjonijiet taż-żejt mhux maħdum u l-esponiment għal Hormuz. Jitneħħew biss is-serje tal-karburant l-ieħor.

It-tieqa tal-avveniment

Kemm kienet tiswa kull serje fil-jiem madwar id-data tal-avveniment (minn -30 sa 90), kemm dan hu ’l bogħod mil-livell tal-istess serje fid-data tal-avveniment, u kemm hu kbir dak iċ-ċaqliq meta mqabbel mal-varjazzjoni normali tas-serje stess.

Il-Polonja, il-karburanti kollha f’dan il-kalkolu. Serje li jistgħu jitpinġew: 22; serje li ma jistgħu jidhru bl-ebda mod, murija hawn taħt bħala pannelli vojta b’tikketta: 7.

Qari ppubblikat: 271; punti tat-tieqa mingħajr xejn ippubblikat fi żmien perjodu wieħed: 15; punti tat-tieqa fuq serje li ma nistgħu naraw xejn minnhom: 91. Kollha jidhru f’din il-paġna.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (Europe Brent spot FOB): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-25	89.49	-11.800	-11.65%	-2.69
−14	2022-02-10	96.37	-4.920	-4.86%	-1.12
−7	2022-02-17	95.28	-6.010	-5.93%	-1.37
−3	2022-02-21	98.95	-2.340	-2.31%	-0.53
−1	2022-02-23	99.29	-2.000	-1.97%	-0.46
T0	2022-02-24l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	101.3	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	98.56	-2.730	-2.70%	-0.62
+3	2022-02-25	98.56	-2.730	-2.70%	-0.62
+7	2022-03-03	115.4	+14.070	+13.89%	+3.20
+14	2022-03-10	114.5	+13.250	+13.08%	+3.02
+30	2022-03-25	122.7	+21.380	+21.11%	+4.87
+60	2022-04-25	99.27	-2.020	-1.99%	-0.46
+90	2022-05-25	116.4	+15.120	+14.93%	+3.44

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 4.34%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 767). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa. Mill-inqas valur wieħed użat ġie ppubblikat barra mit-tieqa (−30 sa +90); l-assi huwa estiż biex juri fejn fil-fatt jinsab.

Tabella tat-tieqa (reported crude oil imports, all origins): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-01	2,001,564	-150,095	-6.98%	-0.36
−14	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,151,659	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,151,659	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,151,659	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,151,659	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,151,659	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,151,659	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	2,151,659	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-03-01	1,923,957	-227,702	-10.58%	-0.55
+14	2022-03-01	1,923,957	-227,702	-10.58%	-0.55
+30	2022-03-01	1,923,957	-227,702	-10.58%	-0.55
+60	2022-04-01	2,098,750	-52,909	-2.46%	-0.13
+90	2022-05-01	2,394,852	+243,193	+11.30%	+0.59

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 19.16%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.7243	-0.069	-8.68%	-0.09
−14	2022-02-07	0.7576	-0.036	-4.49%	-0.05
−7	2022-02-14	0.7770	-0.016	-2.04%	-0.02
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7932	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7932	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7932	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7932	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7932	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.8339	+0.041	+5.13%	+0.05
+14	2022-03-07	0.9568	+0.164	+20.63%	+0.22
+30	2022-03-21	0.9976	+0.204	+25.77%	+0.27
+60	2022-04-25	1.051	+0.258	+32.51%	+0.35
+90	2022-05-23	1.158	+0.365	+46.02%	+0.49

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 93.88%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.6988	-0.056	-7.45%	-0.05
−14	2022-02-07	0.7285	-0.027	-3.51%	-0.02
−7	2022-02-14	0.7417	-0.013	-1.77%	-0.01
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7551	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7551	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7551	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7551	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7551	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.7994	+0.044	+5.87%	+0.04
+14	2022-03-07	0.8561	+0.101	+13.38%	+0.08
+30	2022-03-21	0.9446	+0.190	+25.10%	+0.16
+60	2022-04-25	1.020	+0.265	+35.04%	+0.22
+90	2022-05-23	1.102	+0.347	+45.95%	+0.29

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 157.47%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

Unità: USD għal kull EURIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatUffiċjali

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-25	1.127	+0.011	+0.94%	+2.37
−14	2022-02-10	1.144	+0.028	+2.47%	+6.23
−7	2022-02-17	1.137	+0.021	+1.85%	+4.67
−3	2022-02-21	1.134	+0.017	+1.57%	+3.95
−1	2022-02-23	1.134	+0.018	+1.62%	+4.09
T0	2022-02-24l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.116	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	1.122	+0.005	+0.47%	+1.20
+3	2022-02-25	1.122	+0.005	+0.47%	+1.20
+7	2022-03-03	1.108	-0.009	-0.78%	-1.96
+14	2022-03-10	1.108	-0.008	-0.71%	-1.78
+30	2022-03-25	1.100	-0.016	-1.44%	-3.64
+60	2022-04-25	1.075	-0.042	-3.74%	-9.42
+90	2022-05-25	1.066	-0.051	-4.54%	-11.45

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 0.40%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 770). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-01	0–21.06	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-02-01	0–15.63	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-02-01	0–15.63	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-02-01	0–15.63	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-02-01	0–15.63	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-02-01	0–15.63	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-02-01	0–15.63	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-02-01	0–15.63	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-03-01	0–17.66	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-03-01	0–17.66	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2022-03-01	0–17.66	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2022-04-01	0–28.21	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2022-05-01	0–35.00	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

Unità: % tat-tunnellati importatiIppubblikat: kull xaharMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-01	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-03-01	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-03-01	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2022-03-01	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2022-04-01	0–1.873	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2022-05-01	0–6.522	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

Unità: kopertura (jiem)Ippubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-01	98.00	+1.000	+1.03%	+0.42
−14	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	97.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	97.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	97.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	97.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	97.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	97.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	97.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-03-01	97.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+14	2022-03-01	97.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+30	2022-03-01	97.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+60	2022-04-01	97.00	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+90	2022-05-01	96.00	-1.000	-1.03%	-0.42

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.43%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.5049	-0.049	-8.88%	-1.15
−14	2022-02-07	0.5307	-0.023	-4.22%	-0.55
−7	2022-02-14	0.5419	-0.012	-2.19%	-0.29
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.6491	+0.095	+17.15%	+2.23
+14	2022-03-07	0.7014	+0.147	+26.58%	+3.45
+30	2022-03-21	0.7064	+0.152	+27.49%	+3.57
+60	2022-04-25	0.6165	+0.062	+11.26%	+1.46
+90	2022-05-23	0.6922	+0.138	+24.93%	+3.24

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 7.69%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.5049	-0.049	-8.88%	-1.15
−14	2022-02-07	0.5307	-0.023	-4.22%	-0.55
−7	2022-02-14	0.5419	-0.012	-2.19%	-0.29
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.5541	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.6491	+0.095	+17.15%	+2.23
+14	2022-03-07	0.7014	+0.147	+26.58%	+3.45
+30	2022-03-21	0.7064	+0.152	+27.49%	+3.57
+60	2022-04-25	0.6165	+0.062	+11.26%	+1.46
+90	2022-05-23	0.6922	+0.138	+24.93%	+3.24

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

Unità: tIppubblikat: kull xaharIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-01	10,414,656	-4,163	-0.04%	-0.02
−14	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	10,418,819	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−7	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	10,418,819	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	10,418,819	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	10,418,819	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	10,418,819	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	10,418,819	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-01l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	10,418,819	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-03-01	10,662,475	+243,656	+2.34%	+0.91
+14	2022-03-01	10,662,475	+243,656	+2.34%	+0.91
+30	2022-03-01	10,662,475	+243,656	+2.34%	+0.91
+60	2022-04-01	10,855,471	+436,652	+4.19%	+1.62
+90	2022-05-01	10,842,052	+423,233	+4.06%	+1.57

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.58%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn xahar għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 35). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.0040	+0.004	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-02-07	0.0004	+0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-02-14	-0.0037	-0.004	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-02-28	0.0176	+0.018	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-03-07	0.0570	+0.057	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2022-03-21	0.1263	+0.126	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2022-04-25	0.0799	+0.080	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2022-05-23	-0.0306	-0.031	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	-0.0094	-0.009	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−14	2022-02-07	-0.0093	-0.009	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−7	2022-02-14	-0.0071	-0.007	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0	0.000	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+7	2022-02-28	0.0145	+0.014	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+14	2022-03-07	0.0408	+0.041	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+30	2022-03-21	0.0204	+0.020	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+60	2022-04-25	-0.0637	-0.064	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat
+90	2022-05-23	0.0241	+0.024	mhux ippubblikat	mhux ippubblikat

Għal din is-serje ma hija ppubblikata l-ebda volatilità normali: l-ebda bidla ma tingħata f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità. Dan huwa input nieqes, mhux żero.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	1.285	+0.085	+7.08%	+4.07
−14	2022-02-07	1.162	-0.039	-3.22%	-1.85
−7	2022-02-14	1.178	-0.022	-1.82%	-1.05
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.200	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.200	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.200	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.200	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.200	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	1.252	+0.052	+4.34%	+2.49
+14	2022-03-07	1.409	+0.209	+17.44%	+10.02
+30	2022-03-21	1.546	+0.345	+28.78%	+16.53
+60	2022-04-25	1.557	+0.357	+29.75%	+17.09
+90	2022-05-23	1.555	+0.355	+29.56%	+16.98

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.74%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	1.274	+0.083	+6.94%	+4.00
−14	2022-02-07	1.152	-0.039	-3.30%	-1.90
−7	2022-02-14	1.169	-0.022	-1.89%	-1.09
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.191	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.191	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.191	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.191	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	1.191	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	1.243	+0.052	+4.33%	+2.50
+14	2022-03-07	1.313	+0.122	+10.20%	+5.88
+30	2022-03-21	1.405	+0.214	+17.95%	+10.35
+60	2022-04-25	1.400	+0.208	+17.50%	+10.09
+90	2022-05-23	1.585	+0.394	+33.05%	+19.06

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 1.73%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.7283	-0.065	-8.18%	-3.90
−14	2022-02-07	0.7580	-0.035	-4.44%	-2.12
−7	2022-02-14	0.7733	-0.020	-2.51%	-1.20
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7932	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7932	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7932	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7932	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7932	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.8515	+0.058	+7.35%	+3.50
+14	2022-03-07	1.014	+0.221	+27.81%	+13.26
+30	2022-03-21	1.124	+0.331	+41.70%	+19.88
+60	2022-04-25	1.131	+0.338	+42.58%	+20.30
+90	2022-05-23	1.128	+0.334	+42.16%	+20.10

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.10%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatUffiċjali

Tabella tat-tieqa (Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.6895	-0.066	-8.69%	-3.83
−14	2022-02-07	0.7192	-0.036	-4.74%	-2.09
−7	2022-02-14	0.7346	-0.020	-2.71%	-1.19
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7551	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7551	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7551	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7551	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.7551	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.8139	+0.059	+7.79%	+3.43
+14	2022-03-07	0.8969	+0.142	+18.79%	+8.28
+30	2022-03-21	0.9650	+0.210	+27.80%	+12.26
+60	2022-04-25	0.9559	+0.201	+26.60%	+11.73
+90	2022-05-23	1.126	+0.371	+49.14%	+21.66

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.27%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.5569	+0.150	+36.82%	+14.68
−14	2022-02-07	0.4036	-0.003	-0.85%	-0.34
−7	2022-02-14	0.4050	-0.002	-0.48%	-0.19
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4070	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4070	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4070	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4070	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4070	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.4008	-0.006	-1.53%	-0.61
+14	2022-03-07	0.3957	-0.011	-2.78%	-1.11
+30	2022-03-21	0.4217	+0.015	+3.61%	+1.44
+60	2022-04-25	0.4263	+0.019	+4.73%	+1.89
+90	2022-05-23	0.4273	+0.020	+5.00%	+1.99

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.51%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unità: € għal kull litruIppubblikat: kull ġimgħaIkkalkulatMedja

Tabella tat-tieqa (total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-24	0.5845	+0.148	+34.00%	+14.09
−14	2022-02-07	0.4327	-0.004	-0.81%	-0.33
−7	2022-02-14	0.4342	-0.002	-0.47%	-0.19
−3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4362	0.000	0.00%	0.00
−1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4362	0.000	0.00%	0.00
T0	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4362	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4362	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+3	2022-02-21l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	0.4362	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+7	2022-02-28	0.4290	-0.007	-1.65%	-0.68
+14	2022-03-07	0.4159	-0.020	-4.66%	-1.93
+30	2022-03-21	0.4402	+0.004	+0.90%	+0.37
+60	2022-04-25	0.4438	+0.008	+1.74%	+0.72
+90	2022-05-23	0.4589	+0.023	+5.21%	+2.16

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 2.41%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn ġimgħa għal oħra) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 148). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-25	22.61	+1.846	+8.89%	+1.05
−14	2022-02-10	25.09	+4.332	+20.87%	+2.47
−7	2022-02-17	23.41	+2.650	+12.76%	+1.51
−3	2022-02-18	21.50	+0.742	+3.57%	+0.42
−1	2022-02-23	20.03	-0.730	-3.52%	-0.42
T0	2022-02-24l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	20.76	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	22.06	+1.302	+6.27%	+0.74
+3	2022-02-25	22.06	+1.302	+6.27%	+0.74
+7	2022-03-03	37.39	+16.632	+80.11%	+9.48
+14	2022-03-10	30.44	+9.682	+46.63%	+5.52
+30	2022-03-25	55.41	+34.648	+166.88%	+19.75
+60	2022-04-25	80.15	+59.392	+286.06%	+33.85
+90	2022-05-25	54.28	+33.516	+161.43%	+19.10

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 8.45%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 751). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-25	15.43	-1.934	-11.14%	-0.06
−14	2022-02-10	17.95	+0.594	+3.42%	+0.02
−7	2022-02-17	18.67	+1.306	+7.52%	+0.04
−3	2022-02-18	19.03	+1.666	+9.60%	+0.05
−1	2022-02-23	17.39	+0.026	+0.15%	+0.00
T0	2022-02-24l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	17.36	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	18.28	+0.924	+5.32%	+0.03
+3	2022-02-25	18.28	+0.924	+5.32%	+0.03
+7	2022-03-03	18.33	+0.966	+5.56%	+0.03
+14	2022-03-10	13.10	-4.262	-24.55%	-0.14
+30	2022-03-25	16.69	-0.674	-3.88%	-0.02
+60	2022-04-25	36.43	+19.072	+109.86%	+0.61
+90	2022-05-25	47.31	+29.946	+172.50%	+0.95

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 180.80%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 751). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unità: $ għal kull barmilIppubblikat: kuljumIkkalkulatBaxxa

x: jiem mid-data tal-avveniment. Kull marka tinsab fid-data li fiha ċ-ċifra ġiet ippubblikata: hekk ir-regola tal-aħħar valur magħruf tagħti valur lil kull punt tat-tieqa.

Tabella tat-tieqa (US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).): valur, bidla mid-data tal-avveniment u bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità f’kull punt tat-tieqa.
Punt tat-tieqa	Valur użat	Valur	Δ ass.	Δ %	Unitajiet ta’ volatilità
−30	2022-01-25	13.79	+0.796	+6.13%	+0.04
−14	2022-02-10	16.48	+3.492	+26.88%	+0.15
−7	2022-02-17	13.25	+0.256	+1.97%	+0.01
−3	2022-02-18	12.98	-0.014	-0.11%	-0.00
−1	2022-02-23	12.89	-0.100	-0.77%	-0.00
T0	2022-02-24l-istess valur ippubblikat bħal T0	12.99	0.000	0.00%	0.00
+1	2022-02-25	14.50	+1.512	+11.64%	+0.07
+3	2022-02-25	14.50	+1.512	+11.64%	+0.07
+7	2022-03-03	23.95	+10.962	+84.38%	+0.48
+14	2022-03-10	16.37	+3.382	+26.03%	+0.15
+30	2022-03-25	37.98	+24.988	+192.33%	+1.10
+60	2022-04-25	78.26	+65.272	+502.40%	+2.88
+90	2022-05-25	40.71	+27.720	+213.36%	+1.22

Unità ta’ volatilità għal din is-serje hija 174.63%: id-devjazzjoni standard tal-bidliet perċentwali tagħha stess (minn jum għal ieħor) matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel l-avveniment (bidliet: 751). Mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza.

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

Jeżisti sors, iżda l-liċenzja tiegħu ma tippermettilniex nippubblikawh mill-ġdid. Dawn il-kanali mhumiex neqsin mid-dinja, iżda biss minn din il-paġna.

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).

Punti tat-tieqa milquta: 13.

T0: 24/02/2022. Tieqa ta’ referenza: jiem -90 sa -31. Punti tat-tieqa kkalkulati: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Metodu: 1.0, kalkolu: event_study-1.0, ikkalkulat: 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC.

L-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

Il-mistoqsija tinqasam f’dimensjonijiet li jitkejlu separatament u qatt ma jingħaddu f’numru wieħed. Kull ringiela tgħid jekk nistgħux naraw dik id-dimensjoni, u tagħti ċifra ppubblikata waħda fejn nistgħu.

Mit-tmien kanali ta’ trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet li jirrapporta dan is-sit, kanali b’data f’dan il-kalkolu: 4 Ikkalkulat – għadd tar-ringieli ta’ hawn taħt, mhux kejl.

Metodoloġija §11.1 tippubblika l-limiti li jużaw is-sentenzi ta’ hawn taħt: it-tmien kanali kollha preżenti għall-paragun sħiħ, mill-inqas tlieta biex l-istqarrija tkun tista’ tiġi ttestjata hawn, u 2.0 unitajiet ta’ volatilità biex ċaqliq jiġi deskritt bħala barra mill-varjazzjoni normali ta’ serje. Dawn huma għażliet ta’ kliem ippubblikati, mhux testijiet statistiċi.

Dimensjonijiet tal-esponiment għall-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, kull waħda bl-istatus tagħha u ċifra ppubblikata waħda.
Dimensjoni	Status	Ċifra ppubblikata, jew għaliex m’hemmx
Esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum (D1)Sehem miż-żejt mhux maħdum importat li r-rotta tiegħu teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Firxa biss	0–17.66 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (2022-03) · l-ebda punt tan-nofs
Esponiment dirett tal-prodotti (D2)Sehem mill-prodotti raffinati importati li r-rotta tagħhom teħtieġ l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz.	Osservat	0 % tat-tunnellati importati punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2022-03-01)
Kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza (D7)Il-jiem ta’ kopertura li jammontaw għalihom il-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati. Riżerva kontra interruzzjoni tal-provvista, mhux sehem mill-importazzjonijiet, u mhux kanal tal-prezz.	Osservat	97.00 kopertura (jiem) punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2022-03-01)0.00% mil-livell ta’ T0 = 0.00 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdumIl-prezz kwotat taż-żejt mhux maħdum li fuqu jiġu pprezzati t-tagħbijiet Ewropej.	Osservat	122.7 $ għal kull barmil punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2022-03-25)+21.11% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +4.87 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinatiIl-prezz kwotat tal-prodotti li fuqu jipprezzaw ir-raffineriji u l-bejjiegħa bl-ingrossa.	Mhux disponibbli	Il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED). Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
Marġni tar-raffinarKemm qala’ r-raffinar ta’ barmil f’dan il-prodott.	Mhux disponibbli	M’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
NoliKemm swiet il-ġarr tal-merkanzija bil-baħar.	Mhux disponibbli	In-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers (ringiela 17: BLOCKED).
StokkijietL-istokkijiet miżmuma, li jassorbu jew ikabbru bidla fil-provvista.	Osservat	10,662,475 t punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2022-03-01)+2.34% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +0.91 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossaIl-prezz bejn il-bieb tar-raffinerija u l-pompa tal-petrol.	Mhux disponibbli	Is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni (ringiela 16: BLOCKED).
Prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxiIl-prezz fil-pompa mingħajr id-dazju tas-sisa, il-VAT u taxxi oħra fuq il-karburant.	Osservat	1.124 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2022-03-21)+41.70% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +19.88 unitajiet ta’ volatilità
Prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxiDak li fil-fatt ħallas sewwieq.	Osservat	1.546 € għal kull litru punt tat-tieqa +30 d (ippubblikat: 2022-03-21)+28.78% mil-livell ta’ T0 = +16.53 unitajiet ta’ volatilità

L-esponiment fiżiku (l-Istrett ta’ Hormuz) u l-esponiment tal-prezz huma mistoqsijiet differenti. Pajjiż kważi mingħajr esponiment fiżiku dirett xorta jista’ jara l-prezz fil-pompa tiegħu jiċċaqlaq: iż-żejt mhux maħdum jiġi pprezzat fuq livell globali – u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Il-paġna tal-qsim tal-prezz tista’ tiġi ffissata fuq il-ġimgħat madwar id-data tal-avveniment, biex iċ-ċaqliq fil-pompa jinqasam fit-taxxa, fl-ispiża tal-input u fil-parti li l-ispiża tal-input ma tkoprix.

Qsim tal-prezz (17/02/2022 – 26/03/2022) →

It-tieqa hija madwar id-data ppubblikata tal-avveniment (jiem qabel: 7; jiem wara: 30). Hija tieqa biex wieħed iħares, mhux dikjarazzjoni li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ dak li fiha.

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Polonja, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’għamel il-prezz mingħajr taxxi minn erba’ ġimgħat qabel sa tlettax-il ġimgħa wara l-ġimgħa tal-avveniment, ħdejn dak li kien jagħmel li kieku segwa biss l-ispiża tal-input taż-żejt mhux maħdum bil-pass li tkejjel l-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet. Id-differenza mdella mhix spjegata miż-żejt mhux maħdum; mhix attribwita lill-avveniment jew lil xi ħaġa oħra. L-ebda karburant mhu magħżul: jintwera l-petrol.

Bidla attwali mingħajr taxxi(prezzijiet uffiċjali)
X’kien jagħmel iż-żejt mhux maħdum waħdu(ikkalkulat, bil-firxa)
Imdellel: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum(mhux attribwit lil ebda kawża)
Mhux ippubblikat(l-ebda prezz mingħajr taxxi jew spiża taż-żejt mhux maħdum f’dik il-ġimgħa)

Il-bidliet jitkejlu minn din il-ġimgħa tal-bullettin: 2022-02-21. Ir-reazzjoni għaż-żejt mhux maħdum hija meħuda mill-istima maħżuna tat-trażmissjoni tal-prezzijiet (tieqa: l-aktar tieqa riċenti ta’ tliet snin (2023-09-25 – 2026-09-14)). Il-faxxa ċara hija firxa konservattiva, mhux intervall ta’ 90%. Iż-żona mdella: mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Il-marġnijiet tar-raffinar, in-noli, il-marġnijiet tal-bejgħ bl-imnut u l-iżball tal-mudell huma kollha ġo fiha, u l-ebda wieħed minnhom ma jissemma bħala l-kawża tagħha.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) b’+19.0 c/l (firxa +11.5–+26.4); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+21.0 c/l, u jibqa’ +2.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) b’+34.7 c/l (firxa +19.5–+49.9); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+37.1 c/l, u jibqa’ +2.4 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Kull sentenza ġejja minn mudell fiss, magħżul skont limiti ppubblikati. Iftaħ “Għaliex din is-sentenza” biex tara n-numri li għażluha. L-ebda parti minn dan it-test mhi miktuba minn mudell lingwistiku, u l-ebda parti minnu ma tattribwixxi kawża.

Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+7.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8138500000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
14.112980921553145
t0_value
0.75505
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
7.787563737500839
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.432656255554604
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.058800000000000074
change_pct_from_t0
7.787563737500839
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
2.2686698456623136
change_in_volatility_units
3.432656255554604
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8138500000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
14.112980921553145
t0_value
0.75505
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
7.787563737500839
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.432656255554604
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.058800000000000074
change_pct_from_t0
7.787563737500839
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
2.2686698456623136
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.432656255554604
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 79924f23de8202a710c8f8c4ba9d184da9ac516db1da61ac6ea134b978ee1392 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+27.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’12.3 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.96499
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
30.484742882474503
t0_value
0.75505
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
27.804781140321833
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
12.25598391651586
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.20994000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
27.804781140321833
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.2686698456623136
change_in_volatility_units
12.25598391651586
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.96499
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
30.484742882474503
t0_value
0.75505
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
27.804781140321833
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
12.25598391651586
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.20994000000000002
change_pct_from_t0
27.804781140321833
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.2686698456623136
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
12.25598391651586
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 376d07555205db55eeb30b778de5eec04dae299ebc1a3d4168157952e4e5b39a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+49.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’21.7 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.12611
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
47.93755674474557
t0_value
0.75505
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
49.143765313555384
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.66192908479744
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.37105999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
49.143765313555384
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.2686698456623136
change_in_volatility_units
21.66192908479744
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.12611
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
47.93755674474557
t0_value
0.75505
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
49.143765313555384
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
21.66192908479744
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.37105999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
49.143765313555384
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.2686698456623136
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
21.66192908479744
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d481aa94776ff6a96ac95c40f5be48ca7c352c270918d5703836c434d821b636 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+4.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.24287
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
-1.2367525682272114
t0_value
1.19127
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
4.331511747966445
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.4978508481891613
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.05159999999999987
change_pct_from_t0
4.331511747966445
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.7340954329225111
change_in_volatility_units
2.4978508481891613
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.24287
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
-1.2367525682272114
t0_value
1.19127
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
4.331511747966445
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.4978508481891613
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.05159999999999987
change_pct_from_t0
4.331511747966445
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.7340954329225111
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
2.4978508481891613
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità d4ebe25d02d055f9d0985b066c635e541f56e182745565b4ea9c65b57a21c672 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+18.0%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’10.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.40514
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
5.677557138791882
t0_value
1.19127
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
17.95310886700748
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
10.353010870198009
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.21387
change_pct_from_t0
17.95310886700748
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.7340954329225111
change_in_volatility_units
10.353010870198009
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.40514
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
5.677557138791882
t0_value
1.19127
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
17.95310886700748
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
10.353010870198009
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.21387
change_pct_from_t0
17.95310886700748
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.7340954329225111
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
10.353010870198009
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità dc566bdb29c936d9cdc35f2e924c930062b92cea0f4c80ffdf7881360d24bdc5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (petrol, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+33.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’19.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.58504
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
13.343079516882309
t0_value
1.19127
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
33.05463916660371
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.061603265338146
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.39376999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
33.05463916660371
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.7340954329225111
change_in_volatility_units
19.061603265338146
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.58504
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
13.343079516882309
t0_value
1.19127
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
change_pct
33.05463916660371
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.061603265338146
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.39376999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
33.05463916660371
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.7340954329225111
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
19.061603265338146
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 3ed74508cf6f9e50e169508f9d513052fe70dba17a37c7d838403e3769548f1e · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+7.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8514600000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
11.582516384333477
t0_value
0.79318
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
7.34763861922894
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.5029110554465017
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.05828000000000011
change_pct_from_t0
7.34763861922894
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
2.0975806987175605
change_in_volatility_units
3.5029110554465017
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
0.8514600000000001
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
11.582516384333477
t0_value
0.79318
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
7.34763861922894
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.5029110554465017
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.05828000000000011
change_pct_from_t0
7.34763861922894
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
2.0975806987175605
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.5029110554465017
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità ad912a73cee3f775956e258fa11e4c2edcd095bc923efea182d1f92699323504 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+41.7%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’19.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.12392
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
36.33391523393393
t0_value
0.79318
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
41.69797523891173
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.879080344515685
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.33074000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
41.69797523891173
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.0975806987175605
change_in_volatility_units
19.879080344515685
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.12392
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
36.33391523393393
t0_value
0.79318
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
41.69797523891173
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
19.879080344515685
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.33074000000000003
change_pct_from_t0
41.69797523891173
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
2.0975806987175605
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
19.879080344515685
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 75fa76570b43c7d0f099af2428e9e7defad6c364e80ed44ea33cdbad92919f71 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+42.2%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’20.1 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.12757
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
36.665496404751806
t0_value
0.79318
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
42.15814821352025
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
20.09846307190723
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.33438999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
42.15814821352025
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.0975806987175605
change_in_volatility_units
20.09846307190723
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.12757
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
36.665496404751806
t0_value
0.79318
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
42.15814821352025
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
pre-tax
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
20.09846307190723
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.33438999999999997
change_pct_from_t0
42.15814821352025
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
2.0975806987175605
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
20.09846307190723
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 74b1e925217e3d3f73d42adb4338b4ec59794a8e797b9ae4c4a6b566efaab7b3 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+4.3%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’2.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.25222
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
-1.2733150828339304
t0_value
1.2001700000000002
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
4.336885607872212
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.49119254787489
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.05204999999999993
change_pct_from_t0
4.336885607872212
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.7408873559660367
change_in_volatility_units
2.49119254787489
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.25222
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
-1.2733150828339304
t0_value
1.2001700000000002
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
4.336885607872212
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-02-28
same_observation
false
volatility_units
2.49119254787489
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.05204999999999993
change_pct_from_t0
4.336885607872212
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
3
normal_volatility_pct
1.7408873559660367
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
2.49119254787489
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 7a934474947684fd366f4aa58c5f9d980d9f24f3fce6c37f398978a1752bcb27 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+28.8%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’16.5 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.54559
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
13.029449188286575
t0_value
1.2001700000000002
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
28.780922702617115
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
16.532329104456203
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.34541999999999984
change_pct_from_t0
28.780922702617115
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.7408873559660367
change_in_volatility_units
16.532329104456203
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.54559
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
13.029449188286575
t0_value
1.2001700000000002
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
28.780922702617115
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-03-21
same_observation
false
volatility_units
16.532329104456203
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.34541999999999984
change_pct_from_t0
28.780922702617115
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
5
normal_volatility_pct
1.7408873559660367
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
16.532329104456203
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e6f6119fd767107a2e6e00ce60e4f3d1809e072cd998faa4fc1f4f9b05815596 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz bit-taxxi inklużi (diżil, il-Polonja) inbidel b’+29.6%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn ġimgħa għal oħra matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’17.0 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.55491
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
13.483830219090144
t0_value
1.2001700000000002
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
29.557479357091058
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
16.978398548187112
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.35473999999999983
change_pct_from_t0
29.557479357091058
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.7408873559660367
change_in_volatility_units
16.978398548187112
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
unit
EUR/L
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
1.55491
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
z_score
13.483830219090144
t0_value
1.2001700000000002
fuel_type
DIESEL
change_pct
29.557479357091058
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
series_kind
tax-inclusive
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
statement_topic
event
variation_label
week-to-week
observation_date
2022-05-23
same_observation
false
volatility_units
16.978398548187112
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
change_abs_from_t0
0.35473999999999983
change_pct_from_t0
29.557479357091058
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
2
normal_volatility_pct
1.7408873559660367
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
16.978398548187112
Mudell event.price_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 124cc2880a91e46b30cd2ff36d2242c0e60408b09697f08a70c7e6f0a5f1e9cc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) b’+19.0 c/l (firxa +11.5–+26.4); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+21.0 c/l, u jibqa’ +2.0 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Poland
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-03-21
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
observation_date
2022-03-21
gap_eur_per_litre
0.020429663776016904
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
actual_eur_per_litre
0.20994000000000002
expected_eur_per_litre
0.1895103362239831
proxy_volatility_units
-0.11680573781220037
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-4.018000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.11493547423440995
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.26408519821355664
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Poland
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-03-21
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-03-21
gap_eur_per_litre
0.020429663776016904
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.20994000000000002
expected_eur_per_litre
0.1895103362239831
proxy_volatility_units
-0.11680573781220037
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
-4.018000000000001
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.11493547423440995
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.26408519821355664
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità b247ea21cd55e649061c6501135dc54cebd68cf4402e7c7669a4514480ccafe6 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (petrol, il-Polonja) b’+34.7 c/l (firxa +19.5–+49.9); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+37.1 c/l, u jibqa’ +2.4 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Poland
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-05-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
observation_date
2022-05-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.02413865667632692
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
actual_eur_per_litre
0.37105999999999995
expected_eur_per_litre
0.346921343323673
proxy_volatility_units
0.8092678270821386
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.837999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.19467765523359679
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.499165031413751
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
petrol
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Poland
fuel_type
EURO_SUPER_95
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
GASOLINE
proxy_to_date
2022-05-23
pass_through_k
2
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-05-23
gap_eur_per_litre
0.02413865667632692
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.37105999999999995
expected_eur_per_litre
0.346921343323673
proxy_volatility_units
0.8092678270821386
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
27.837999999999997
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.19467765523359679
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.499165031413751
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
180.79993207863203
Mudell event.crude_only.computed v1.2 · Marka tal-identità a7198d4bec27184b2a0164e707015bfbf162cb6653a9b662b531488be5902ccc · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 4 ġimgħat wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Polonja) b’+20.4 c/l (firxa +5.5–+35.4); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+33.1 c/l, u jibqa’ +12.6 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’22.2 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Poland
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-03-21
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
observation_date
2022-03-21
gap_eur_per_litre
0.12629957792143295
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
actual_eur_per_litre
0.33074000000000003
expected_eur_per_litre
0.20444042207856708
proxy_volatility_units
12.233577860390142
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
22.231999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.05504898004621758
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3538318641109161
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
8.450955055544933
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
4
status
COMPUTED
country
Poland
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
offset_weeks
4
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-03-21
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-03-21
gap_eur_per_litre
0.12629957792143295
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.33074000000000003
expected_eur_per_litre
0.20444042207856708
proxy_volatility_units
12.233577860390142
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
22.231999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.05504898004621758
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.3538318641109161
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
8.450955055544933
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 1e731c4cb2eae167e60e919a81ef43450b1ddd5e85576cc0278472d447c4f564 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 13-il ġimgħa wara l-punt ta’ referenza (l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”), l-ispejjeż taż-żejt mhux maħdum waħedhom kienu jċaqilqu l-prezz mingħajr taxxi (diżil, il-Polonja) b’+36.5 c/l (firxa +8.0–+65.0); fil-fatt iċċaqlaq b’+33.4 c/l, u jibqa’ -3.1 c/l mhux spjegat miż-żejt mhux maħdum. Fl-istess perjodu, il-crack spread tal-Istati Uniti (diżil), indikatur tas-suq tal-prodotti tal-Atlantiku u mhux marġni Ewropew, kiber b’29.9 $/bbl.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Poland
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-05-23
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
observation_date
2022-05-23
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.030627401647370156
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
actual_eur_per_litre
0.33438999999999997
expected_eur_per_litre
0.3650174016473701
proxy_volatility_units
16.427727304969743
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
29.853999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.08010680361020608
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.6499279996845297
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
8.450955055544933
Limiti
source
docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
proxy_rule
the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
confidence_cap
MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
statement_weeks
[4,13]
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
fuel
diesel
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
weeks
13
status
COMPUTED
country
Poland
fuel_type
DIESEL
gap_label
NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
series_code
CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
offset_weeks
13
proxy_product
DIESEL
proxy_to_date
2022-05-23
pass_through_k
1
proxy_from_date
2022-02-18
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-05-23
gap_eur_per_litre
-0.030627401647370156
series_source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
anchor_period_start
2022-02-21
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
actual_eur_per_litre
0.33438999999999997
expected_eur_per_litre
0.3650174016473701
proxy_volatility_units
16.427727304969743
pass_through_sample_end
2026-09-14
proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
29.853999999999996
pass_through_sample_start
2023-09-25
pass_through_window_label
ROLLING_156W
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
expected_low_eur_per_litre
0.08010680361020608
expected_high_eur_per_litre
0.6499279996845297
proxy_normal_volatility_pct
8.450955055544933
Mudell event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 287b70e5180322088c47814fcb00548b683909eef574c18c02fe1a11ce97f2a5 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Il-Polonja, Frar 2022: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (0%–16%). Ma tiġi ppubblikata l-ebda stima ta’ punt waħdu: il-pajjiżi sħab ikkonċernati jesportaw kemm minn ġewwa kif ukoll minn barra l-Golf Persjan, u l-qsim għal kull perjodu mhux pubbliku.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatMedja
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Poland
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
value_max_pct
15.6288491810273
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
moderate
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
NO_OBSERVATION
country
Poland
commodity
crude
dimension
DIRECT_CRUDE
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
value_max_pct
15.6288491810273
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
RANGE_ONLY
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
null
observation_date
2022-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.range v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5a44e4ee308c87b6c0d48f5c5638954418c11cc7eab2a3266e5e88509e95cbe7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Il-Polonja, Frar 2022: id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (prodott raffinat) kienet limitata (0%).
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatBaxxa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2022-02-01
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
band_applied_to
upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
dependence_limited_max_pct
10
dependence_moderate_max_pct
33
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
band
limited
unit
% of imported tonnes
period
2022-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
commodity
refined product
dimension
DIRECT_PRODUCT
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
value_max_pct
0
value_min_pct
0
exposure_status
COMPUTED
statement_topic
hormuz
value_point_pct
0
observation_date
2022-02-01
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.dependence.point v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 5174b5854be897796a7f43174008eb56d1b5c569736429d6c6d202ddf355469f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
L-evidenza disponibbli ma turix tnaqqis fiżiku fil-provvista: l-importazzjonijiet irrappurtati taż-żejt mhux maħdum (il-Polonja, Frar 2022) meta mqabbla mal-medja tax-xhur ta’ qabel (12): +9.5%.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
country
Poland
change_pct
9.477081408626528
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
value_tonnes
2151659
baseline_months
12
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
baseline_mean_tonnes
1965396.75
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
baseline_not_published_months
0
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
min_baseline_months
6
baseline_months_used
12
supply_reduction_pct
-10
supply_baseline_months
12
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
country
Poland
change_pct
9.477081408626528
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
value_tonnes
2151659
baseline_months
12
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
crude_imports_rule
crude_imports_total-1.1
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
baseline_mean_tonnes
1965396.75
baseline_window_months
12
value_not_published_code
null
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
baseline_not_published_months
0
Mudell event.supply.no_reduction v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e5a0cb6ab921d9bfe295b824d1f8c18d110361b3c6b39ad795b72af982a9a489 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Frar 2022: l-istokkijiet taż-żejt (il-Polonja) kienu 0.7% aktar baxxi meta mqabbla mal-medja mobbli tagħhom (xhur: 12) — ġewwa l-faxxa ta’ 5% fuq kull naħa li dan is-sit jaqra bħala konformi magħha, jiem ta’ kopertura: 97.0 (kif ippubblikati).
pajjiż: il-PolonjaIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_PL
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
days_of_cover
97
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
0.03997251565486176
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
10418819
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
observation_gap_days
23
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
10494956.583333334
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-0.7254683021199413
trailing_12m_observations
12
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
band_applied_to
the rounded figure printed in the sentence
days_of_cover_basis
as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
trailing_window_months
12
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
-0.7254683021199413
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
-0.7
inventory_material_deviation_pct
5
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
tonnes
month
2022-02
status
OBSERVED
country
Poland
direction
below
siec_code
O4000
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
holder_type
STK_CL
series_code
INVENTORY_PL
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
days_of_cover
97
metric_status
COMPUTED
mom_change_pct
0.03997251565486176
statement_topic
event
observation_date
2022-02-01
series_source_ids
["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
total_stock_tonnes
10418819
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
days_of_cover_basis
as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
23
trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
10494956.583333334
level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
-0.7254683021199413
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
trailing_12m_observations
12
Mudell event.inventory_level.in_line v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 79cff5aa19c75d3f3b674ac55a8a17393b818eaf3adf187d07f7f31887e7d950 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Sommarju ta’ x’jista’ jiġi vverifikat hawn
Parti biss mill-katina tista’ tiġi vverifikata għal dan il-pajjiż (il-Polonja) madwar l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”: serje disponibbli: 4 minn 8 (prezz ta’ referenza taż-żejt mhux maħdum, stokkijiet, prezz fil-pompa mingħajr taxxi u prezz fil-pompa bit-taxxi); mhux disponibbli: prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati, marġni tar-raffinar, noli u prezzijiet bl-ingrossa. Kull dikjarazzjoni bbażata fuq ir-rabtiet neqsin ma tistax tiġi ttestjata hawn. Id-dipendenza fiżika diretta marbuta ma’ Hormuz (żejt mhux maħdum) kienet moderata (0–16%) matul il-perjodu kopert. Din il-paġna tiddeskrivi x’għamlet kull serje madwar id-data tal-avveniment. Mhijiex sejba dwar kawża: l-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet fl-istess tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
pajjiż: il-PolonjaMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
country
Poland
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
dependence_band
moderate
dependence_range
0–16%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
channels_total
8
channels_available
4
verdict_partial_min_channels
3
verdict_assessable_min_channels
8
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
country
Poland
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
country_iso2
PL
country_name
Poland
country_slug
poland
dependence_band
moderate
statement_topic
event
dependence_range
0–16%
channels_available
["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
supply_template_id
event.supply.no_reduction
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
channels_unavailable
["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.verdict.partial v1.2 · Marka tal-identità e294da20c59a1f3a8d4e02ce09dc08750132f658eef0f445939adb2b684c7716 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 7 jiem wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+13.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.2 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
115.36
status
OBSERVED
z_score
5.841150770454914
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
13.890808569454036
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.203825480890899
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
14.069999999999993
change_pct_from_t0
13.890808569454036
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
change_in_volatility_units
3.203825480890899
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
115.36
status
OBSERVED
z_score
5.841150770454914
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
13.890808569454036
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
7
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-03
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.203825480890899
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
14.069999999999993
change_pct_from_t0
13.890808569454036
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.203825480890899
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 499e14f143cd15685ef1480ed3fa89cd45abe5f0647c7ec6a69249dfc87c1dd1 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 30 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+21.1%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’4.9 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
122.67
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.996054504576924
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
21.107710534109977
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.868357411616733
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.379999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
21.107710534109977
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
change_in_volatility_units
4.868357411616733
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
122.67
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.996054504576924
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
21.107710534109977
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
30
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-03-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
4.868357411616733
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
21.379999999999995
change_pct_from_t0
21.107710534109977
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
1
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
4.868357411616733
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 216049ee46b7aafc7c24ef4f74d592168c4ca36a76f9b7e30eb4f402126d0f04 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Fil-perjodu ta’ 90 jum wara l-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”, il-prezz ta’ referenza (żejt mhux maħdum Brent) inbidel b’+14.9%, jiġifieri l-varjazzjoni normali tiegħu minn jum għal ieħor matul it-tliet snin ta’ qabel immultiplikata b’3.4 — barra minn dik il-firxa.
dwar l-avveniment kolluIkkalkulatUffiċjali
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
116.41
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.007039815711837
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
14.927436074637171
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
15.11999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
14.927436074637171
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
change_in_volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
Limiti
source
v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
volatility_definition
sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
unusual_move_volatility_units
2
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
unit
$/BBL
event
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
value
116.41
status
OBSERVED
z_score
6.007039815711837
t0_value
101.29
benchmark
Brent crude
change_pct
14.927436074637171
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
offset_days
90
series_code
BRENT
statement_topic
event
variation_label
day-to-day
observation_date
2022-05-25
same_observation
false
volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
series_source_ids
["eia_brent_rbrte"]
change_abs_from_t0
15.11999999999999
change_pct_from_t0
14.927436074637171
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
observation_gap_days
0
normal_volatility_pct
4.335694516541323
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
change_in_volatility_units
3.4429169346887267
Mudell event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 3c4d928f0edacc86e86f81949df4a6221c6a157e987b0435ccf81af9f53e267c · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Noli – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: in-noli tat-tankers huma soġġetti għal liċenzji li jipprojbixxu espressament il-wiri pubbliku, it-trażmissjoni lil oħrajn u d-data derivata, kif ivverifikat kelma b’kelma, u l-ebda istituzzjoni miftuħa ma tippubblika nol tat-tankers.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["freight rates"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 06b89c2e9e647323c15398c394cf050a39c9a42ef3b469967cce5fff091ed96a · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezz ta’ referenza tal-prodotti raffinati – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati (Platts / Argus) huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni. Il-crack spreads tal-Istati Uniti mhumiex indikatur validu għall-UE u ma jitqegħdux minflokhom.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refined-product benchmark"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità eacf068451f42ad71340259d5f692acb03bf66b7a7d6f730ade5a819ff7d1005 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Prezzijiet bl-ingrossa – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: is-serje tal-prezzijiet bl-ingrossa / rack huma proprjetarji, mingħajr dritt ta’ ridistribuzzjoni.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["wholesale prices"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 0a8ec24923eb853f8772aa729f8ec775267350a63bc1d8e64f27facfb62978a7 · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC
Marġni tar-raffinar – reazzjoni: l-evalwazzjoni mhix possibbli. Raġuni: m’għandna l-ebda serje ppubblikata tal-marġni tar-raffinar, u biex nikkalkulaw marġni aħna stess ikollna bżonn il-prezzijiet ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti, soġġetti għal liċenzja, li ma jistgħux jiġu ppubblikati mill-ġdid.
dwar l-avveniment kolluMhux magħrufMhux magħrufa
Għaliex din is-sentenza (bl-Ingliż)
Varjabbli
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Limiti
source
CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
true
Inputs
t0
2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
channels
["refining margin"]
event_name
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
event_slug
ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
event_type
WAR
source_ids
["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
reason_code
NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
statement_topic
event
calculation_version
event_statements-1.0
methodology_version
1.0
study_calculation_version
event_study-1.0
Mudell event.channel.unavailable v1.2 · Marka tal-identità 92e561b810be016411f6a7bbc96381cc8ebec1f6df6e0ae2fd7fc342f4dc1c9f · kalkolu event_statements-1.0 · ikkalkulat 03/10/2026 17:47 UTC

X’ma jurix dan

Ma jurix li l-avveniment kien fl-oriġini ta’ xi ħaġa. L-ebda disinn kawżali mhu ppubblikat għal dan is-sit, u serje li ċċaqilqet f’din it-tieqa setgħet iċċaqilqet għal raġunijiet oħra.
Bidla f’unitajiet ta’ volatilità mhijiex test tas-sinifikanza, u lanqas punteġġ z ma hu. Ikejlu affarijiet differenti u mhumiex interkambjabbli.
Il-kanali mingħajr sors b’liċenzja għall-użu jew diġà mtella’ jintwerew bħala pannelli vojta, mhux bħala linji ċatti. “Ma nistgħux naraw dan” ma jfissirx “dan ma ċċaqlaqx”.
Xejn ma jiġi interpolat. Fejn diversi punti tat-tieqa jaqgħu fuq ċifra ppubblikata waħda, dak hu li stampa l-pubblikatur, u l-bidla meta mqabbla mad-data tal-avveniment hija żero: huwa l-istess numru.

Il-Polonja: provvista, raffineriji u prezzijiet fil-pompa →

Kif jinqraw it-tikketti

UffiċjaliIrrappurtat direttament minn awtorità uffiċjali.
IvverifikatIrrappurtat minn parti terza u vverifikat minna ma’ rekord primarju.
IkkalkulatIkkalkulat minna minn inputs irrappurtati. Il-metodu huwa ppubblikat fil-paġna tal-metodoloġija.
Inferit · kunfidenza għoljaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn mill-inqas żewġ rekords fiżiċi indipendenti.
Inferit · kunfidenza medjaMhux irrappurtat. Inferit minn evidenza indiretta qawwija, mingħajr konferma espliċita.
Inferit · kunfidenza baxxaMhux irrappurtat. Plawżibbli biss minn data dwar l-infrastruttura jew il-movimenti. Taqrahx bħala fatt.
Mhux magħrufL-ebda evidenza pubblika difendibbli ma tistabbilixxi dan. Ma nagħmlux suppożizzjonijiet, u dan mhuwiex kejl ta’ żero.

Europe Brent spot FOB

reported crude oil imports, all origins

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

rata ta’ referenza tal-kambju tal-euro tal-BĊE

esponiment dirett taż-żejt mhux maħdum għal Hormuz D1

esponiment dirett tal-prodotti raffinati għal Hormuz D2

esponiment tal-istokkijiet D7: jiem ta’ kopertura tal-ħażniet ta’ emerġenza ppubblikati, miżmuma kif inhuma

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

stokkijiet totali nazzjonali taż-żejt (Eurostat, detenturi kummerċjali), bil-jiem ta’ kopertura ppubblikati maġenbhom

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin bit-taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

Prezz tal-Weekly Oil Bulletin mingħajr taxxi

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Mhux disponibbli: imblukkat mil-liċenzja

nol tat-tankers “dirty” mill-Golf Għarbi lejn il-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

prezz ta’ referenza tal-UE għall-prodotti raffinati

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

marġni tar-raffinar / crack spread tal-Majjistral tal-Ewropa

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

prezz bl-ingrossa / rack

L-avveniment “l-invażjoni Russa tal-Ukrajna (24 ta’ Frar 2022)”: huwa tassew ir-raġuni?

X’għamel il-prezz fil-pompa madwar din id-data

Attwali kontra ż-żejt mhux maħdum biss: il-Polonja, petrol (Euro-super 95)

X’jappoġġaw in-numri, sentenza b’sentenza

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli

Limiti

Inputs

Varjabbli