Fuel Origin

Estonia

Petrol, June 2026 — crude behind it: 35% cannot be traced · 26% Norway · 22% Saudi Arabia · 12% United States. Up to 53% of that crude may have passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Estimated
Source & method
Source
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
  • EIA, IEA and terminal operators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin Hormuz route classification and country bounds, methodology v1.0
Every source, with links and licences
Period
June 2026
Method
How this figure is made

Countries without a crude refinery can appear under "Last shipped from": the importing country's statistics record where the fuel arrived from. It was refined elsewhere and either sold on or passed through that country's terminals; the statistics do not say which, or where it was refined.

  • Reported (solid)
  • Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
  • Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
  • Cannot be traced (hatched)
Assumptions
  1. 1

    Estonia: petrol available in June 2026

    Everything refined in the country plus everything imported.

  2. 2

    Where that fuel came from

    Lithuania's refineries ran on (going by its crude imports, April–June 2026)

    Latvia: re-exported; origin not traceable.

  3. 3

    The crude behind Estonia's petrol

  • Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
  • Each country's refineries are assumed to run on its crude-import mix over the latest three months.
  • The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
  • The crude origin is the producing country the statistics report, not the loading terminal, so the Hormuz answer is a range wherever a producer loads both inside and outside the Persian Gulf.

In June 2026, most petrol available in Estonia came from Lithuania (67%), followed by Latvia (33%).

Lithuania's refineries ran on crude from Norway (38%), Saudi Arabia (33%) and the United States (18%), going by its crude imports in April–June 2026.

Taken together, an estimated 26% of the crude behind Estonia's petrol came from Norway, 22% from Saudi Arabia and 12% from the United States; 35% cannot be traced.

The largest untraced part (33%) is there because Latvia has no crude oil refinery, so that fuel was made elsewhere and is followed only one step back.

Up to 53% of the crude behind Estonia's petrol is estimated to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, a significant dependence judged on the upper bound. No midpoint is published: crude that cannot be traced is counted as anything from none to all of it.

This is an estimate, not a reported figure: it assumes exports are drawn proportionally from every source and that each country's refineries run on its crude-import mix, and it looks back only one country.

Hormuz and the pump price in Estonia

Calculated
  • At most 53% of the crude behind Estonia's petrol in June 2026 could have passed through Hormuz.
  • Since 28 Feb 2026, petrol at the pump went +31.9%; Brent (in US dollars) went +61.5% (week of 23 Feb 2026 to week of 21 Sep 2026).
  • 50% of the petrol pump price is tax (week of 21 Sep 2026).

Is Hormuz really the reason? — the EU-wide picture →

Source & method
Source
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
  • EIA, IEA and terminal operators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin Hormuz route classification and country bounds, methodology v1.0
  • European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER) — Weekly Oil Bulletin - retail fuel prices with and without taxes
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (petroleum spot prices)
Every source, with links and licences
Method
How this figure is made
  • Strait of Hormuz: the upper end of the headline’s estimate for June 2026, the same figure as in the sentence above; no new figure is made here.
  • Pump price: Weekly Oil Bulletin, petrol including tax, week of 23 Feb 2026 (€1.453 per litre) and week of 21 Sep 2026 (€1.917 per litre). Brent: EIA daily spot price, the first print dated in each of those weeks (23 Feb 2026: 71.9; 21 Sep 2026: 116.15; US dollars per barrel). Each change is worked out in the currency it is published in; no exchange rate is applied. The start week is the one containing the event date of Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026) (28 Feb 2026), the event the Strait of Hormuz page leads with; the end week is the latest week with both prices.
  • Tax share: the pump price split into tax and price before tax for the week of 21 Sep 2026 (Weekly Oil Bulletin prices and published tax rates), as on the pump price page.
  • The three figures are shown side by side, each on its own; no link between them is drawn here.

Go deeper for Estonia

Crude origins

Calculated

No crude refineries (IEA / OECD).

Estonia reported no crude oil imports in June 2026.

Source & method
Source
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
Every source, with links and licences
Period
June 2026
Method
How this figure is made

Product origins

Calculated

Petrol imports, June 2026: Lithuania 67%, Latvia 33% (re-exported; origin not traceable).

Share of petrol imports by country last shipped from, to June 2026

3-month average of monthly shares, over the months with figures in each window
Dec 2025Jun 20260%25%50%75%100%Lithuania 60.8%Finland 19.2%Latvia 11.1%
  • Lithuania
  • Finland
  • Latvia
  • France
  • Netherlands

Share of petrol imports, June 2026 (published)

0%50%100%LithuaniaLatvia66.7%33.3%
Share of petrol imports, June 2026 (published): all countries last shipped from
Country last shipped fromShareTonnes
Lithuania67%16,000
Latvia33%8,000
Source & method
Source
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
Every source, with links and licences
Period
June 2026
Method
How this figure is made
Download
Download CSV

Stocks & days of cover

Official

75 days of emergency stock cover in June 2026.

Closing stocks: 473,650 tonnes, −22.5% against the 12-month average.

Closing stocks, to June 2026

Jan 2025Jun 2026200k400k600k800k
  • Closing stocks
  • 12-month average

Days of cover, to June 2026

Jan 2025Jun 2026708090100110
Source & method
Source
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Emergency oil stocks in days equivalent - monthly data
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Stock levels for oil products - monthly data
Every source, with links and licences
Period
June 2026
Method
How this figure is made
Which method the member state used
  • Stock calculation method: method 2
  • Minimum obligation method: method 2
  • Days calculation method: method 1
Download
Download CSV

Recent events

Official
Source & method
Source
  • International Energy Agency — Event timeline, cited per event
  • US Energy Information Administration — Event timeline, cited per event
  • European Commission — Event timeline, cited per event
  • European Council — Event timeline, cited per event
  • National legislators — Event timeline, cited per event
Every source, with links and licences
Method
How this figure is made