Fuel Origin

Events / Shipping disruption

Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)

Dates
2026-02-28 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf

What the sources said

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Verified
Retrieved 2026-09-23 07:22 UTCRevision 1
Source documents (7)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Austria, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

274 published readings, 12 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90130.763.52026-01-29: 71.00 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 69.96 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 72.75 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 70.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 71.32 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 83.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 95.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 103.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 121.9 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 124.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 92.88 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2971.00-0.320-0.45%-0.23
−142026-02-1369.96-1.360-1.91%-0.99
−72026-02-2072.75+1.430+2.01%+1.04
−32026-02-2570.69-0.630-0.88%-0.46
−12026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0383.28+11.960+16.77%+8.68
+72026-03-0695.74+24.420+34.24%+17.72
+142026-03-13103.2+31.910+44.74%+23.16
+302026-03-30121.9+50.560+70.89%+36.70
+602026-04-29124.2+52.840+74.09%+38.35
+902026-05-2992.88+21.560+30.23%+15.65

One volatility unit for this series is 1.93%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (756 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90694,611489,2942026-01-01: 532,693 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 674,742 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 509,163 tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 673,645 tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 628,344 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-01532,693-142,049-21.05%-1.31
−142026-02-01same print as T0674,7420.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T0674,7420.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T0674,7420.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T0674,7420.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T0674,7420.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-01509,163-165,579-24.54%-1.53
+32026-03-01509,163-165,579-24.54%-1.53
+72026-03-01509,163-165,579-24.54%-1.53
+142026-03-01509,163-165,579-24.54%-1.53
+302026-03-01509,163-165,579-24.54%-1.53
+602026-04-01673,645-1,097-0.16%-0.01
+902026-05-01628,344-46,398-6.88%-0.43

One volatility unit for this series is 16.04%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2840.6562026-01-26: 0.7168 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.7334 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.7370 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.7459 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7575 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8548 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.096 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.149 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.224 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.7168-0.029-3.90%-0.02
−142026-02-090.7334-0.012-1.67%-0.01
−72026-02-160.7370-0.009-1.19%-0.01
−32026-02-23same print as T00.74590.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.74590.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.74590.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.74590.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7575+0.012+1.55%+0.01
+72026-03-020.7575+0.012+1.55%+0.01
+142026-03-090.8548+0.109+14.60%+0.08
+302026-03-301.096+0.350+46.96%+0.26
+602026-04-271.149+0.403+54.03%+0.30
+902026-05-251.224+0.478+64.05%+0.35

One volatility unit for this series is 181.45%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9820.5852026-01-26: 0.6237 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6350 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6376 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6436 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6531 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7187 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.8906 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.9098 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.9437 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.6237-0.020-3.10%-1.30
−142026-02-090.6350-0.009-1.33%-0.56
−72026-02-160.6376-0.006-0.93%-0.39
−32026-02-23same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6531+0.010+1.48%+0.62
+72026-03-020.6531+0.010+1.48%+0.62
+142026-03-090.7187+0.075+11.68%+4.91
+302026-03-300.8906+0.247+38.39%+16.14
+602026-04-270.9098+0.266+41.36%+17.39
+902026-05-250.9437+0.300+46.64%+19.61

One volatility unit for this series is 2.38%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2031.1422026-01-29: 1.197 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 1.186 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 1.177 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 1.178 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 1.181 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 1.161 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 1.156 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 1.148 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.148 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 1.171 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 1.164 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-291.197+0.016+1.38%+3.12
−142026-02-131.186+0.006+0.48%+1.09
−72026-02-201.177-0.004-0.32%-0.73
−32026-02-251.178-0.002-0.18%-0.40
−12026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-031.161-0.020-1.69%-3.81
+72026-03-061.156-0.024-2.07%-4.67
+142026-03-131.148-0.033-2.79%-6.29
+302026-03-301.148-0.032-2.72%-6.14
+602026-04-291.171-0.010-0.84%-1.89
+902026-05-291.164-0.016-1.36%-3.08

One volatility unit for this series is 0.44%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (765 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9013.590.002026-05-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +902026-01-01: 11.63 to 12.13 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-02-01: 5.842 to 6.092 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-03-01: 0 to 8.836 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-04-01: 0 to 4.116 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-0111.63–12.13not publishednot publishednot published
−142026-02-015.842–6.092not publishednot publishednot published
−72026-02-015.842–6.092not publishednot publishednot published
−32026-02-015.842–6.092not publishednot publishednot published
−12026-02-015.842–6.092not publishednot publishednot published
T02026-02-015.842–6.092not publishednot publishednot published
+12026-03-010–8.836not publishednot publishednot published
+32026-03-010–8.836not publishednot publishednot published
+72026-03-010–8.836not publishednot publishednot published
+142026-03-010–8.836not publishednot publishednot published
+302026-03-010–8.836not publishednot publishednot published
+602026-04-010–4.116not publishednot publishednot published
+902026-05-010not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0000.0002026-01-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-0100.000not publishednot published
−142026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−72026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−32026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+72026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+142026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+302026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+602026-04-0100.000not publishednot published
+902026-05-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9092.4488.542026-01-01: 92.06 days of cover, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 91.29 days of cover, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 90.87 days of cover, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 88.91 days of cover, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 88.93 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-0192.06+0.766+0.84%+1.29
−142026-02-01same print as T091.290.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T091.290.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T091.290.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T091.290.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T091.290.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-0190.87-0.428-0.47%-0.72
+32026-03-0190.87-0.428-0.47%-0.72
+72026-03-0190.87-0.428-0.47%-0.72
+142026-03-0190.87-0.428-0.47%-0.72
+302026-03-0190.87-0.428-0.47%-0.72
+602026-04-0188.91-2.380-2.61%-4.02
+902026-05-0188.93-2.365-2.59%-3.99

One volatility unit for this series is 0.65%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.65
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.77
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.77
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.18
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.09
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.83
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.28

One volatility unit for this series is 3.68%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.65
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.77
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.77
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.18
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.09
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.83
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.28

One volatility unit for this series is 3.68%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+903,211,0842,993,1472026-01-01: 3,076,951 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 3,155,079 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 3,014,238 tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 3,137,209 tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 3,189,993 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-013,076,951-78,128-2.48%-0.78
−142026-02-01same print as T03,155,0790.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T03,155,0790.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T03,155,0790.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T03,155,0790.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T03,155,0790.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-013,014,238-140,841-4.46%-1.41
+32026-03-013,014,238-140,841-4.46%-1.41
+72026-03-013,014,238-140,841-4.46%-1.41
+142026-03-013,014,238-140,841-4.46%-1.41
+302026-03-013,014,238-140,841-4.46%-1.41
+602026-04-013,137,209-17,870-0.57%-0.18
+902026-05-013,189,993+34,914+1.11%+0.35

One volatility unit for this series is 3.16%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.241-0.2002026-01-26: -0.0017 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: -0.0017 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: -0.0144 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.0034 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.1844 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.1981 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: -0.0497 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: -0.1577 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-26-0.0017-0.002not publishednot published
−142026-02-09-0.0017-0.002not publishednot published
−72026-02-16-0.0144-0.014not publishednot published
−32026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-020.0034+0.003not publishednot published
+72026-03-020.0034+0.003not publishednot published
+142026-03-090.1844+0.184not publishednot published
+302026-03-300.1981+0.198not publishednot published
+602026-04-27-0.0497-0.050not publishednot published
+902026-05-25-0.1577-0.158not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.107-0.0642026-01-26: -0.0042 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: -0.0115 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: -0.0198 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: -0.0045 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.0907 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.0613 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: -0.0470 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: -0.0302 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-26-0.0042-0.004not publishednot published
−142026-02-09-0.0115-0.011not publishednot published
−72026-02-16-0.0198-0.020not publishednot published
−32026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-02-0.0045-0.005not publishednot published
+72026-03-02-0.0045-0.005not publishednot published
+142026-03-090.0907+0.091not publishednot published
+302026-03-300.0613+0.061not publishednot published
+602026-04-27-0.0470-0.047not publishednot published
+902026-05-25-0.0302-0.030not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902.2871.4262026-01-26: 1.509 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 1.529 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 1.518 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.546 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.564 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.898 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 2.204 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.910 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.906 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-261.509-0.037-2.39%-1.80
−142026-02-091.529-0.017-1.10%-0.83
−72026-02-161.518-0.028-1.81%-1.36
−32026-02-23same print as T01.5460.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T01.5460.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T01.5460.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T01.5460.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.564+0.018+1.16%+0.88
+72026-03-021.564+0.018+1.16%+0.88
+142026-03-091.898+0.352+22.77%+17.12
+302026-03-302.204+0.658+42.56%+32.01
+602026-04-271.910+0.364+23.54%+17.71
+902026-05-251.906+0.360+23.29%+17.51

One volatility unit for this series is 1.33%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.9271.4302026-01-26: 1.480 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 1.485 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 1.478 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.509 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.515 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.708 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.879 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.712 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.809 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-261.480-0.029-1.92%-1.73
−142026-02-091.485-0.024-1.59%-1.43
−72026-02-161.478-0.031-2.05%-1.85
−32026-02-23same print as T01.5090.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T01.5090.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T01.5090.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T01.5090.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.515+0.006+0.40%+0.36
+72026-03-021.515+0.006+0.40%+0.36
+142026-03-091.708+0.199+13.19%+11.90
+302026-03-301.879+0.370+24.52%+22.12
+602026-04-271.712+0.203+13.45%+12.14
+902026-05-251.809+0.300+19.88%+17.94

One volatility unit for this series is 1.11%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.3640.6462026-01-26: 0.7150 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.7317 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.7225 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.7459 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7609 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.039 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.294 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.099 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.066 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.7150-0.031-4.13%-1.93
−142026-02-090.7317-0.014-1.90%-0.88
−72026-02-160.7225-0.023-3.13%-1.46
−32026-02-23same print as T00.74590.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.74590.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.74590.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.74590.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7609+0.015+2.01%+0.94
+72026-03-020.7609+0.015+2.01%+0.94
+142026-03-091.039+0.293+39.33%+18.32
+302026-03-301.294+0.548+73.52%+34.25
+602026-04-271.099+0.353+47.37%+22.07
+902026-05-251.066+0.320+42.90%+19.99

One volatility unit for this series is 2.15%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9920.5782026-01-26: 0.6194 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6236 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6178 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6436 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6486 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8094 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.9519 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.8628 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.9136 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.6194-0.024-3.76%-1.94
−142026-02-090.6236-0.020-3.11%-1.61
−72026-02-160.6178-0.026-4.01%-2.08
−32026-02-23same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.64360.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6486+0.005+0.78%+0.40
+72026-03-020.6486+0.005+0.78%+0.40
+142026-03-090.8094+0.166+25.77%+13.33
+302026-03-300.9519+0.308+47.91%+24.78
+602026-04-270.8628+0.219+34.05%+17.61
+902026-05-250.9136+0.270+41.95%+21.70

One volatility unit for this series is 1.93%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9240.7802026-01-26: 0.7940 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.7973 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.7955 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.8001 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8031 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8588 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.9098 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.8108 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.8401 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.7940-0.006-0.77%-1.12
−142026-02-090.7973-0.003-0.35%-0.52
−72026-02-160.7955-0.005-0.58%-0.85
−32026-02-23same print as T00.80010.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.80010.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.80010.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.80010.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8031+0.003+0.37%+0.55
+72026-03-020.8031+0.003+0.37%+0.55
+142026-03-090.8588+0.059+7.33%+10.66
+302026-03-300.9098+0.110+13.71%+19.93
+602026-04-270.8108+0.011+1.33%+1.94
+902026-05-250.8401+0.040+5.00%+7.27

One volatility unit for this series is 0.69%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9360.8402026-01-26: 0.8606 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.8614 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.8603 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.8654 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8664 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8986 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.9271 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.8493 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.8954 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.8606-0.005-0.56%-0.96
−142026-02-090.8614-0.004-0.46%-0.80
−72026-02-160.8603-0.005-0.60%-1.03
−32026-02-23same print as T00.86540.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.86540.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.86540.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.86540.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8664+0.001+0.12%+0.20
+72026-03-020.8664+0.001+0.12%+0.20
+142026-03-090.8986+0.033+3.83%+6.61
+302026-03-300.9271+0.062+7.13%+12.28
+602026-04-270.8493-0.016-1.87%-3.22
+902026-05-250.8954+0.030+3.47%+5.98

One volatility unit for this series is 0.58%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9071.0527.842026-01-29: 32.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 32.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 37.84 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 43.84 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 41.49 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 52.13 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 58.90 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 66.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 66.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 55.17 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2932.03-9.466-22.81%-3.77
−142026-02-1332.27-9.224-22.23%-3.68
−72026-02-2037.84-3.656-8.81%-1.46
−32026-02-2543.84+2.352+5.67%+0.94
−12026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0352.13+10.636+25.63%+4.24
+72026-03-0658.90+17.412+41.96%+6.94
+142026-03-1366.83+25.336+61.06%+10.10
+302026-03-3066.87+25.376+61.16%+10.12
+602026-04-2954.93+13.436+32.38%+5.36
+902026-05-2955.17+13.678+32.97%+5.45

One volatility unit for this series is 6.05%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9044.976.732026-01-29: 19.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 10.43 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 11.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 13.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 15.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 19.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 20.56 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 25.33 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 21.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 34.94 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 41.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2919.97+4.100+25.83%+0.93
−142026-02-1310.43-5.444-34.30%-1.23
−72026-02-2011.42-4.454-28.06%-1.00
−32026-02-2513.39-2.478-15.61%-0.56
−12026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0319.87+4.000+25.20%+0.90
+72026-03-0620.56+4.686+29.52%+1.06
+142026-03-1325.33+9.460+59.60%+2.13
+302026-03-3021.09+5.216+32.86%+1.18
+602026-04-2934.94+19.064+120.11%+4.30
+902026-05-2941.27+25.396+160.01%+5.73

One volatility unit for this series is 27.92%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9062.7117.062026-01-29: 23.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 21.47 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 27.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 33.05 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 30.66 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 41.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 48.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 56.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 56.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 58.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 43.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2923.42-7.240-23.62%-2.64
−142026-02-1321.47-9.182-29.95%-3.35
−72026-02-2027.04-3.614-11.79%-1.32
−32026-02-2533.05+2.394+7.81%+0.87
−12026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0341.29+10.636+34.69%+3.88
+72026-03-0648.07+17.412+56.80%+6.35
+142026-03-1356.03+25.378+82.78%+9.26
+302026-03-3056.07+25.418+82.91%+9.28
+602026-04-2958.29+27.632+90.14%+10.08
+902026-05-2943.07+12.418+40.51%+4.53

One volatility unit for this series is 8.94%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2026-01Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2026-02-28. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only0–8.836 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2026-03) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Observed0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed90.87 days of cover at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)-0.47% from the level at T0 = -0.72 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed121.9 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+70.89% from the level at T0 = +36.70 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed3,014,238 tonnes at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)-4.46% from the level at T0 = -1.41 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed1.294 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+73.52% from the level at T0 = +34.25 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed2.204 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+42.56% from the level at T0 = +32.01 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2026-02-21 to 2026-03-30 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Austria, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'austria'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's pre-tax petrol price moved +0.8%, which is 0.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.64858
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    2.3813973203847825
    t0_value
    0.64358
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.7769041921750216
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.40183801179047784
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0050000000000000044
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.7769041921750216
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9333765581642057
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.40183801179047784
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.64858
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    2.3813973203847825
    t0_value
    0.64358
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.7769041921750216
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.40183801179047784
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.0050000000000000044
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.7769041921750216
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9333765581642057
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.40183801179047784

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 96facc635fb4fae4c6c007e44b324746aad4838c5ae05378bb6d398a5d89b7ac · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's pre-tax petrol price moved +47.9%, which is 24.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.95191
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    23.638078077417347
    t0_value
    0.64358
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    47.908573914664835
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    24.779742835071584
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.30833
    change_pct_from_t0
    47.908573914664835
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9333765581642057
    change_in_volatility_units
    24.779742835071584
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.95191
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    23.638078077417347
    t0_value
    0.64358
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    47.908573914664835
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    24.779742835071584
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.30833
    change_pct_from_t0
    47.908573914664835
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9333765581642057
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    24.779742835071584

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 79fda6da63b65b33a885b5f9a2bc389414ea0855fc445e2017466016c868b16f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's pre-tax petrol price moved +42.0%, which is 21.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9135800000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    20.951998318023097
    t0_value
    0.64358
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    41.95282637745113
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    21.699252636685788
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.27
    change_pct_from_t0
    41.95282637745113
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9333765581642057
    change_in_volatility_units
    21.699252636685788
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9135800000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    20.951998318023097
    t0_value
    0.64358
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    41.95282637745113
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    21.699252636685788
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.27
    change_pct_from_t0
    41.95282637745113
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9333765581642057
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    21.699252636685788

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 85bddc02ea5545af2112f9c0185e1634471d59e3a3eebadd08bb3eca17f7dcad · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +0.4%, which is 0.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.5150000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    2.381473133369844
    t0_value
    1.5090000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.39761431411530845
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.3587118524193878
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.006000000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.39761431411530845
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1084504496674334
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.3587118524193878
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.5150000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    2.381473133369844
    t0_value
    1.5090000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.39761431411530845
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.3587118524193878
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.006000000000000005
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.39761431411530845
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1084504496674334
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.3587118524193878

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c85b32b0ac5f70fac874458a28350be6958ba8280378fc7bcae3663b6b42570e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +24.5%, which is 22.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.879
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    23.639527588191644
    t0_value
    1.5090000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    24.51954937044399
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    22.12056423252889
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3699999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    24.51954937044399
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1084504496674334
    change_in_volatility_units
    22.12056423252889
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.879
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    23.639527588191644
    t0_value
    1.5090000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    24.51954937044399
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    22.12056423252889
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3699999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    24.51954937044399
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1084504496674334
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    22.12056423252889

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 6bf2e24b21bec8e7e6af06955bdea976c20d9698dedda21670e46566860b6fa7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +19.9%, which is 17.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.809
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    19.551440193033603
    t0_value
    1.5090000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    19.880715705765393
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.935592620969363
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2999999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.880715705765393
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1084504496674334
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.935592620969363
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.809
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    19.551440193033603
    t0_value
    1.5090000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    19.880715705765393
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.935592620969363
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2999999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    19.880715705765393
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1084504496674334
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.935592620969363

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fd303fd4da07e012f9bf7259a26fcae4e0e2383761225295b80352c5926b3b96 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's pre-tax diesel price moved +2.0%, which is 0.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.76087
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    2.08254864498624
    t0_value
    0.74587
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.011074315899555
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.9370524650799811
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.015000000000000013
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.011074315899555
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.146170455597598
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.9370524650799811
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.76087
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    2.08254864498624
    t0_value
    0.74587
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.011074315899555
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.9370524650799811
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.015000000000000013
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.011074315899555
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.146170455597598
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.9370524650799811

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 6faa28f90e067418612a7c47cf5ee56749c9dc84b0168d826e4920512b25f394 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's pre-tax diesel price moved +73.5%, which is 34.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.29421
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    25.651083677882585
    t0_value
    0.74587
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    73.51683269202408
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    34.25488991346376
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.54834
    change_pct_from_t0
    73.51683269202408
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.146170455597598
    change_in_volatility_units
    34.25488991346376
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.29421
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    25.651083677882585
    t0_value
    0.74587
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    73.51683269202408
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    34.25488991346376
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.54834
    change_pct_from_t0
    73.51683269202408
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.146170455597598
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    34.25488991346376

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 7c76b7c424d04d767a15541cde37cf0a0290f6905567dc0f32c44428e610fea1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's pre-tax diesel price moved +42.9%, which is 20.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0658699999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    15.560636140830132
    t0_value
    0.74587
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    42.902918739190454
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    19.990452588372904
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.31999999999999984
    change_pct_from_t0
    42.902918739190454
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.146170455597598
    change_in_volatility_units
    19.990452588372904
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0658699999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    15.560636140830132
    t0_value
    0.74587
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    42.902918739190454
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    19.990452588372904
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.31999999999999984
    change_pct_from_t0
    42.902918739190454
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.146170455597598
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    19.990452588372904

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e76340f3b2cccf017be7f8bb4167929610afdfa5c1b65fdd265454ae4baccb9e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +1.2%, which is 0.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.564
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    2.0828581830749275
    t0_value
    1.546
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.164294954721864
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.875529655616022
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.018000000000000016
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.164294954721864
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.329817839125811
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.875529655616022
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.564
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    2.0828581830749275
    t0_value
    1.546
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.164294954721864
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.875529655616022
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.018000000000000016
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.164294954721864
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.329817839125811
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.875529655616022

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 2814061ab9f15383c6263eb7018891ef7f3d53bb4b7fa1ebdb14373cc713ebe0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +42.6%, which is 32.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.204
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    25.653119744001362
    t0_value
    1.546
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    42.56144890038811
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    32.00547296640789
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.6580000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    42.56144890038811
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.329817839125811
    change_in_volatility_units
    32.00547296640789
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.204
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    25.653119744001362
    t0_value
    1.546
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    42.56144890038811
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    32.00547296640789
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.6580000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    42.56144890038811
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.329817839125811
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    32.00547296640789

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3b984dce7dd809d173b42bb5f1af139f98449bd3cd2c56d455c7d0f99a9c0ac5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Austria's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +23.3%, which is 17.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.9060000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    14.678216704694993
    t0_value
    1.546
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    23.285899094437262
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.51059311232043
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3600000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    23.285899094437262
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.329817839125811
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.51059311232043
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.9060000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    z_score
    14.678216704694993
    t0_value
    1.546
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    23.285899094437262
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_AT_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.51059311232043
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3600000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    23.285899094437262
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.329817839125811
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.51059311232043

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3d96efbf9c23df825653f773f7d7a2d672c8ff600f25fc6579ddd3219331c6a9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. Over the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Austria's pre-tax petrol price by +22.3 c/L (range +16.4–+28.2); it actually moved +27.7 c/L, leaving +5.4 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 9.9 $/bbl.

    about AustriaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Austria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.05371610724689502
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.27666999999999997
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.22295389275310495
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1636395904934216
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2822681950127907
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Austria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.05371610724689502
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.27666999999999997
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.22295389275310495
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1636395904934216
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2822681950127907
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint e041a023c61da4bfac3de73066466388e8a48a5c5c50fd6e81d593e93606a858 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. Over the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Austria's pre-tax petrol price by +30.0 c/L (range +14.7–+45.3); it actually moved +27.0 c/L, leaving -3.0 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 27.0 $/bbl.

    about AustriaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Austria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.030153523055036435
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.27
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.30015352305503645
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1473876379014348
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.45291940820864346
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Austria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.030153523055036435
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.27
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.30015352305503645
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1473876379014348
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.45291940820864346
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint a4c378e1e883e55c200ef0b49a5c7e976fbb35ca6bc8b775aa4aa37aa7968369 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Over the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Austria's pre-tax diesel price by +32.1 c/L (range +23.4–+40.7); it actually moved +46.9 c/L, leaving +14.9 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 28.8 $/bbl.

    about AustriaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Austria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.1486476645967314
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.46916999999999986
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.32052233540326847
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.2337852863553201
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.4072593844512152
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Austria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.1486476645967314
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.46916999999999986
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.32052233540326847
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.2337852863553201
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.4072593844512152
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 8f9e4aa8f71436a2ef1554dba296dc25e41a49c9205949231d0d41ac08a932a5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Over the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Austria's pre-tax diesel price by +47.8 c/L (range +28.5–+67.1); it actually moved +32.0 c/L, leaving -15.8 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 16.0 $/bbl.

    about AustriaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Austria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.15772796202087186
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.31999999999999984
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.4777279620208717
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.2847715209831579
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.6706844030585825
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Austria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_AT_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.15772796202087186
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.31999999999999984
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.4777279620208717
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2005-01-03
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.2847715209831579
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.6706844030585825
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint c7efacfd665658b988aa887fbad2b054ac32498cc33bb294919788781634ea79 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (6%–6%) for Austria in 2026-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about AustriaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Austria
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    value_max_pct
    6.09195811139665
    value_min_pct
    5.84218782882939
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Austria
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    value_max_pct
    6.09195811139665
    value_min_pct
    5.84218782882939
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint bf0395ea5d611e5e49640e110cd711eceffdc6642691bb73ed550ba634a1ecb2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%) for Austria in 2026-02.

    about AustriaCalculatedLow
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint 9e687889cbc674dcdf3056d793230d1d01386f23e6e888b2490ab5620281c9d5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Available evidence does not show a physical supply reduction: Austria's reported crude imports in 2026-02 were +3.4% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Austria
    change_pct
    3.3606458706377036
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    674742
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    652803.5833333334
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Austria
    change_pct
    3.3606458706377036
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    674742
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    652803.5833333334
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.no_reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint 2f8f602ee7086dd4e758e67b57b99e9467ac4405f234376fba8f34a817e01605 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In 2026-02, Austria's oil stocks stood 2.9% below their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 91.3 days of cover (as published).

    about AustriaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_AT
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    days_of_cover
    91.294
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    2.5391369573321123
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    3155079
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    3247798.6666666665
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -2.8548465032109953
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    -2.8548465032109953
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    -2.9
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Austria
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_AT
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    days_of_cover
    91.294
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    2.5391369573321123
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    3155079
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    3247798.6666666665
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -2.8548465032109953
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint 955da206e1cec87419713623243f3e5897fa491247f346043daed45a365f4f95 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Austria around Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (6–6%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about AustriaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Austria
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    dependence_band
    limited
    dependence_range
    6–6%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Austria
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    AT
    country_name
    Austria
    country_slug
    austria
    dependence_band
    limited
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    6–6%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 9c33dc476acf50b2201e72d97f3f7f4aa914385adcb5daed5205f906d8328403 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +34.2%, which is 17.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +70.9%, which is 36.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +30.2%, which is 15.6 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Austria: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.