Fuel Origin

Events / Shipping disruption

Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)

Dates
2026-02-28 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf

What the sources said

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Verified
Retrieved 2026-09-23 07:22 UTCRevision 1
Source documents (7)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Bulgaria, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

260 published readings, 26 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90130.763.52026-01-29: 71.00 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 69.96 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 72.75 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 70.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 71.32 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 83.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 95.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 103.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 121.9 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 124.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 92.88 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2971.00-0.320-0.45%-0.23
−142026-02-1369.96-1.360-1.91%-0.99
−72026-02-2072.75+1.430+2.01%+1.04
−32026-02-2570.69-0.630-0.88%-0.46
−12026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0383.28+11.960+16.77%+8.68
+72026-03-0695.74+24.420+34.24%+17.72
+142026-03-13103.2+31.910+44.74%+23.16
+302026-03-30121.9+50.560+70.89%+36.70
+602026-04-29124.2+52.840+74.09%+38.35
+902026-05-2992.88+21.560+30.23%+15.65

One volatility unit for this series is 1.93%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (756 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0000.0002026-01-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 0 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 0 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-0100.000not publishednot published
−142026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−72026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−32026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+72026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+142026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+302026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+602026-04-0100.000not publishednot published
+902026-05-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0790.6242026-01-26: 0.6684 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6825 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6884 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6927 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7052 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7451 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.9379 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.024 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.035 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.6684-0.024-3.50%-2.17
−142026-02-090.6825-0.010-1.47%-0.91
−72026-02-160.6884-0.004-0.63%-0.39
−32026-02-23same print as T00.69270.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.69270.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.69270.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.69270.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7052+0.012+1.80%+1.12
+72026-03-020.7052+0.012+1.80%+1.12
+142026-03-090.7451+0.052+7.57%+4.70
+302026-03-300.9379+0.245+35.40%+21.97
+602026-04-271.024+0.331+47.80%+29.67
+902026-05-251.035+0.342+49.43%+30.68

One volatility unit for this series is 1.61%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.8910.6102026-01-26: 0.6370 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6464 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6490 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6520 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6642 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.6924 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.8262 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.8635 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.8490 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.6370-0.015-2.29%-2.44
−142026-02-090.6464-0.006-0.86%-0.91
−72026-02-160.6490-0.003-0.46%-0.49
−32026-02-23same print as T00.65200.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.65200.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.65200.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.65200.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6642+0.012+1.87%+1.99
+72026-03-020.6642+0.012+1.87%+1.99
+142026-03-090.6924+0.040+6.20%+6.61
+302026-03-300.8262+0.174+26.71%+28.46
+602026-04-270.8635+0.211+32.44%+34.55
+902026-05-250.8490+0.197+30.22%+32.19

One volatility unit for this series is 0.94%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2031.1422026-01-29: 1.197 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 1.186 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 1.177 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 1.178 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 1.181 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 1.161 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 1.156 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 1.148 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.148 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 1.171 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 1.164 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-291.197+0.016+1.38%+3.12
−142026-02-131.186+0.006+0.48%+1.09
−72026-02-201.177-0.004-0.32%-0.73
−32026-02-251.178-0.002-0.18%-0.40
−12026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-031.161-0.020-1.69%-3.81
+72026-03-061.156-0.024-2.07%-4.67
+142026-03-131.148-0.033-2.79%-6.29
+302026-03-301.148-0.032-2.72%-6.14
+602026-04-291.171-0.010-0.84%-1.89
+902026-05-291.164-0.016-1.36%-3.08

One volatility unit for this series is 0.44%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (765 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.120-0.120

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. The line stops at −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +60, +90 where no figure was published within one period of the offset.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−142026-02-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−72026-02-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−32026-02-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
−12026-02-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
T02026-02-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+12026-03-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+32026-03-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+72026-03-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+142026-03-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+302026-03-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+602026-04-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published
+902026-05-01not publishednot publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9049.530.002026-01-01: 0 to 27.72 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-02-01: 0 to 19.65 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-03-01: 0 to 44.22 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-04-01: 0 to 21.97 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-05-01: 0 to 17.08 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-010–27.72not publishednot publishednot published
−142026-02-010–19.65not publishednot publishednot published
−72026-02-010–19.65not publishednot publishednot published
−32026-02-010–19.65not publishednot publishednot published
−12026-02-010–19.65not publishednot publishednot published
T02026-02-010–19.65not publishednot publishednot published
+12026-03-010–44.22not publishednot publishednot published
+32026-03-010–44.22not publishednot publishednot published
+72026-03-010–44.22not publishednot publishednot published
+142026-03-010–44.22not publishednot publishednot published
+302026-03-010–44.22not publishednot publishednot published
+602026-04-010–21.97not publishednot publishednot published
+902026-05-010–17.08not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9086.6484.312026-01-01: 84.54 days of cover, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 86.42 days of cover, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 85.44 days of cover, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 85.44 days of cover, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 85.48 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-0184.54-1.881-2.18%-1.27
−142026-02-01same print as T086.420.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T086.420.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T086.420.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T086.420.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T086.420.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-0185.44-0.977-1.13%-0.66
+32026-03-0185.44-0.977-1.13%-0.66
+72026-03-0185.44-0.977-1.13%-0.66
+142026-03-0185.44-0.977-1.13%-0.66
+302026-03-0185.44-0.977-1.13%-0.66
+602026-04-0185.44-0.981-1.14%-0.66
+902026-05-0185.48-0.941-1.09%-0.63

One volatility unit for this series is 1.72%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.65
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.77
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.77
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.18
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.09
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.83
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.28

One volatility unit for this series is 3.68%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.65
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.77
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.77
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.18
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.09
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.83
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.28

One volatility unit for this series is 3.68%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901,963,8221,629,9382026-01-01: 1,931,511 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 1,662,249 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 1,735,731 tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 1,816,377 tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 1,666,675 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-011,931,511+269,262+16.20%+2.54
−142026-02-01same print as T01,662,2490.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T01,662,2490.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T01,662,2490.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T01,662,2490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T01,662,2490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-011,735,731+73,482+4.42%+0.69
+32026-03-011,735,731+73,482+4.42%+0.69
+72026-03-011,735,731+73,482+4.42%+0.69
+142026-03-011,735,731+73,482+4.42%+0.69
+302026-03-011,735,731+73,482+4.42%+0.69
+602026-04-011,816,377+154,128+9.27%+1.45
+902026-05-011,666,675+4,426+0.27%+0.04

One volatility unit for this series is 6.39%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.1330.0002026-01-26: 0.0196 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.0073 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.0014 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.0022 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.0132 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.0817 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.1187 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.0561 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.0196+0.020not publishednot published
−142026-02-090.0073+0.007not publishednot published
−72026-02-160.0014+0.001not publishednot published
−32026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-020.0022+0.002not publishednot published
+72026-03-020.0022+0.002not publishednot published
+142026-03-090.0132+0.013not publishednot published
+302026-03-300.0817+0.082not publishednot published
+602026-04-270.1187+0.119not publishednot published
+902026-05-250.0561+0.056not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.071-0.0112026-01-26: 0.0152 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.0067 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.0041 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: -0.0028 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: -0.0004 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.0144 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.0042 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.0632 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.0152+0.015not publishednot published
−142026-02-090.0067+0.007not publishednot published
−72026-02-160.0041+0.004not publishednot published
−32026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-02-0.0028-0.003not publishednot published
+72026-03-02-0.0028-0.003not publishednot published
+142026-03-09-0.0004-0.000not publishednot published
+302026-03-300.0144+0.014not publishednot published
+602026-04-270.0042+0.004not publishednot published
+902026-05-250.0632+0.063not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.8331.1572026-01-26: 1.222 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 1.224 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 1.224 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.228 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.245 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.306 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.620 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.767 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.706 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-261.222-0.006-0.46%-0.40
−142026-02-091.224-0.004-0.29%-0.25
−72026-02-161.224-0.004-0.29%-0.25
−32026-02-23same print as T01.2280.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T01.2280.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T01.2280.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T01.2280.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.245+0.018+1.43%+1.26
+72026-03-021.245+0.018+1.43%+1.26
+142026-03-091.306+0.079+6.41%+5.62
+302026-03-301.620+0.392+31.96%+28.01
+602026-04-271.767+0.540+43.97%+38.55
+902026-05-251.706+0.478+38.95%+34.15

One volatility unit for this series is 1.14%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.5681.1812026-01-26: 1.218 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 1.219 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 1.219 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.218 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.229 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.266 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.444 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.477 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.530 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-261.218+0.000+0.02%+0.02
−142026-02-091.219+0.001+0.11%+0.08
−72026-02-161.219+0.001+0.11%+0.08
−32026-02-23same print as T01.2180.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T01.2180.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T01.2180.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T01.2180.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.229+0.011+0.92%+0.73
+72026-03-021.229+0.011+0.92%+0.73
+142026-03-091.266+0.048+3.95%+3.13
+302026-03-301.444+0.226+18.58%+14.73
+602026-04-271.477+0.259+21.25%+16.84
+902026-05-251.530+0.312+25.63%+20.32

One volatility unit for this series is 1.26%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1970.6332026-01-26: 0.6880 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6898 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6898 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6927 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7074 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7583 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.020 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.143 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.091 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.6880-0.005-0.67%-0.41
−142026-02-090.6898-0.003-0.42%-0.25
−72026-02-160.6898-0.003-0.42%-0.25
−32026-02-23same print as T00.69270.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.69270.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.69270.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.69270.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7074+0.015+2.12%+1.27
+72026-03-020.7074+0.015+2.12%+1.27
+142026-03-090.7583+0.066+9.47%+5.69
+302026-03-301.020+0.327+47.19%+28.39
+602026-04-271.143+0.450+64.94%+39.06
+902026-05-251.091+0.399+57.53%+34.60

One volatility unit for this series is 1.66%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9430.6212026-01-26: 0.6522 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6531 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6531 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6520 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6613 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.6921 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.8406 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.8676 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.9121 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.6522+0.000+0.04%+0.02
−142026-02-090.6531+0.001+0.17%+0.09
−72026-02-160.6531+0.001+0.17%+0.09
−32026-02-23same print as T00.65200.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.65200.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.65200.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.65200.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6613+0.009+1.43%+0.75
+72026-03-020.6613+0.009+1.43%+0.75
+142026-03-090.6921+0.040+6.15%+3.21
+302026-03-300.8406+0.189+28.92%+15.11
+602026-04-270.8676+0.216+33.08%+17.28
+902026-05-250.9121+0.260+39.90%+20.85

One volatility unit for this series is 1.91%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6360.5232026-01-26: 0.5340 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.5343 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.5343 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.5349 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.5378 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5480 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6003 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6249 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.6146 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.5340-0.001-0.17%-0.39
−142026-02-090.5343-0.001-0.11%-0.24
−72026-02-160.5343-0.001-0.11%-0.24
−32026-02-23same print as T00.53490.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.53490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.53490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.53490.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.5378+0.003+0.55%+1.23
+72026-03-020.5378+0.003+0.55%+1.23
+142026-03-090.5480+0.013+2.45%+5.51
+302026-03-300.6003+0.065+12.22%+27.45
+602026-04-270.6249+0.090+16.82%+37.78
+902026-05-250.6146+0.080+14.90%+33.47

One volatility unit for this series is 0.45%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.6240.5602026-01-26: 0.5661 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.5662 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.5662 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.5660 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.5679 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5740 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6037 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6092 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.6181 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.5661+0.000+0.01%+0.02
−142026-02-090.5662+0.000+0.04%+0.08
−72026-02-160.5662+0.000+0.04%+0.08
−32026-02-23same print as T00.56600.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.56600.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.56600.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.56600.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.5679+0.002+0.33%+0.71
+72026-03-020.5679+0.002+0.33%+0.71
+142026-03-090.5740+0.008+1.42%+3.03
+302026-03-300.6037+0.038+6.66%+14.25
+602026-04-270.6092+0.043+7.62%+16.30
+902026-05-250.6181+0.052+9.19%+19.66

One volatility unit for this series is 0.47%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (154 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9071.0527.842026-01-29: 32.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 32.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 37.84 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 43.84 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 41.49 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 52.13 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 58.90 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 66.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 66.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 55.17 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2932.03-9.466-22.81%-3.77
−142026-02-1332.27-9.224-22.23%-3.68
−72026-02-2037.84-3.656-8.81%-1.46
−32026-02-2543.84+2.352+5.67%+0.94
−12026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0352.13+10.636+25.63%+4.24
+72026-03-0658.90+17.412+41.96%+6.94
+142026-03-1366.83+25.336+61.06%+10.10
+302026-03-3066.87+25.376+61.16%+10.12
+602026-04-2954.93+13.436+32.38%+5.36
+902026-05-2955.17+13.678+32.97%+5.45

One volatility unit for this series is 6.05%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9044.976.732026-01-29: 19.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 10.43 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 11.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 13.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 15.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 19.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 20.56 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 25.33 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 21.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 34.94 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 41.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2919.97+4.100+25.83%+0.93
−142026-02-1310.43-5.444-34.30%-1.23
−72026-02-2011.42-4.454-28.06%-1.00
−32026-02-2513.39-2.478-15.61%-0.56
−12026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0319.87+4.000+25.20%+0.90
+72026-03-0620.56+4.686+29.52%+1.06
+142026-03-1325.33+9.460+59.60%+2.13
+302026-03-3021.09+5.216+32.86%+1.18
+602026-04-2934.94+19.064+120.11%+4.30
+902026-05-2941.27+25.396+160.01%+5.73

One volatility unit for this series is 27.92%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9062.7117.062026-01-29: 23.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 21.47 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 27.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 33.05 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 30.66 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 41.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 48.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 56.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 56.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 58.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 43.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2923.42-7.240-23.62%-2.64
−142026-02-1321.47-9.182-29.95%-3.35
−72026-02-2027.04-3.614-11.79%-1.32
−32026-02-2533.05+2.394+7.81%+0.87
−12026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0341.29+10.636+34.69%+3.88
+72026-03-0648.07+17.412+56.80%+6.35
+142026-03-1356.03+25.378+82.78%+9.26
+302026-03-3056.07+25.418+82.91%+9.28
+602026-04-2958.29+27.632+90.14%+10.08
+902026-05-2943.07+12.418+40.51%+4.53

One volatility unit for this series is 8.94%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2026-01Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2026-02-28. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Nothing published in the windownot published
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only0–44.22 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2026-03) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed85.44 days of cover at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)-1.13% from the level at T0 = -0.66 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed121.9 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+70.89% from the level at T0 = +36.70 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed1,735,731 tonnes at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)+4.42% from the level at T0 = +0.69 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed1.020 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+47.19% from the level at T0 = +28.39 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed1.620 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+31.96% from the level at T0 = +28.01 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2026-02-21 to 2026-03-30 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Bulgaria, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'bulgaria'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's pre-tax petrol price moved +1.4%, which is 0.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.6613160976840182
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    3.801336276077841
    t0_value
    0.6519827643506849
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.431530685113808
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7478672049533959
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.009333333333333305
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.431530685113808
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9141509022353982
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7478672049533959
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.6613160976840182
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    3.801336276077841
    t0_value
    0.6519827643506849
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.431530685113808
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7478672049533959
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.009333333333333305
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.431530685113808
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9141509022353982
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7478672049533959

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 7dc1ac99f44b0fee22dba009a7db897fb4609a36a5fa79b089a1aeb0a67fd69d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's pre-tax petrol price moved +28.9%, which is 15.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8405660976840181
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    78.12009113535626
    t0_value
    0.6519827643506849
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    28.92458875368353
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.110923971513738
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.18858333333333321
    change_pct_from_t0
    28.92458875368353
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9141509022353982
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.110923971513738
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8405660976840181
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    78.12009113535626
    t0_value
    0.6519827643506849
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    28.92458875368353
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.110923971513738
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.18858333333333321
    change_pct_from_t0
    28.92458875368353
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9141509022353982
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.110923971513738

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a241034ef82a3f158050793155ef70d9ec1d47e0e93daf1651e480e04ca9775f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's pre-tax petrol price moved +39.9%, which is 20.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9121494310173517
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    107.79922196944291
    t0_value
    0.6519827643506849
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    39.90391784754754
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    20.84679833807598
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.26016666666666677
    change_pct_from_t0
    39.90391784754754
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9141509022353982
    change_in_volatility_units
    20.84679833807598
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9121494310173517
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    107.79922196944291
    t0_value
    0.6519827643506849
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    39.90391784754754
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    20.84679833807598
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.26016666666666677
    change_pct_from_t0
    39.90391784754754
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9141509022353982
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    20.84679833807598

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint bc041b14d884ddafd20e1af90aba1efc0a983f41e5ea2ee98b8727821d9bbd94 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +0.9%, which is 0.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.2292
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    3.7974424553306845
    t0_value
    1.218
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.9195402298850656
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7288752635506804
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.011200000000000099
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.9195402298850656
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2615879230220683
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7288752635506804
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.2292
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    3.7974424553306845
    t0_value
    1.218
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    0.9195402298850656
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.7288752635506804
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.011200000000000099
    change_pct_from_t0
    0.9195402298850656
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2615879230220683
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.7288752635506804

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0117795aa12d01193197eab71f37f1e0fd5ad374fac0f694ea2b9fb486716e93 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +18.6%, which is 14.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.4443
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    78.06512888671914
    t0_value
    1.218
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    18.579638752052542
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.727185012635491
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.22629999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    18.579638752052542
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2615879230220683
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.727185012635491
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.4443
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    78.06512888671914
    t0_value
    1.218
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    18.579638752052542
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.727185012635491
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.22629999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    18.579638752052542
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2615879230220683
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.727185012635491

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 53973cb910b7e0b71ad95ab6097fb4a51355f93511a415fd39b8628cdf3e4a55 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +25.6%, which is 20.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.5302
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    107.72386558805006
    t0_value
    1.218
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    25.63218390804598
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    20.31739797147504
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.31220000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    25.63218390804598
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2615879230220683
    change_in_volatility_units
    20.31739797147504
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.5302
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    107.72386558805006
    t0_value
    1.218
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    25.63218390804598
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    20.31739797147504
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.31220000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    25.63218390804598
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.2615879230220683
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    20.31739797147504

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0dbf2c9ae67e9134d95dec845629b6ea2c5df31294b5f9f965e2fd4ef07f6d85 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's pre-tax diesel price moved +2.1%, which is 1.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7073721114139095
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    0.381174532610921
    t0_value
    0.6927054447472428
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.1173020622089016
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2735422190338825
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.014666666666666717
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.1173020622089016
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6625299346692257
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2735422190338825
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7073721114139095
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    0.381174532610921
    t0_value
    0.6927054447472428
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.1173020622089016
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2735422190338825
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.014666666666666717
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.1173020622089016
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6625299346692257
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2735422190338825

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 11fb7778acffc46205eaf2d6de18d9bcec6b884b70a76627452fcb159e9081a1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's pre-tax diesel price moved +47.2%, which is 28.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0196221114139097
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    26.996425496044193
    t0_value
    0.6927054447472428
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    47.19418176162215
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    28.386966620851748
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.32691666666666686
    change_pct_from_t0
    47.19418176162215
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6625299346692257
    change_in_volatility_units
    28.386966620851748
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0196221114139097
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    26.996425496044193
    t0_value
    0.6927054447472428
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    47.19418176162215
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    28.386966620851748
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.32691666666666686
    change_pct_from_t0
    47.19418176162215
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6625299346692257
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    28.386966620851748

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c09d83541b0174b63bee8facbb0d6c7ec45bc04c802666b08900aaadf9285bd5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's pre-tax diesel price moved +57.5%, which is 34.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0912054447472428
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    33.09797355518193
    t0_value
    0.6927054447472428
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    57.52805944024393
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    34.6027209739773
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.39849999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    57.52805944024393
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6625299346692257
    change_in_volatility_units
    34.6027209739773
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0912054447472428
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    33.09797355518193
    t0_value
    0.6927054447472428
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    57.52805944024393
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    34.6027209739773
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.39849999999999997
    change_pct_from_t0
    57.52805944024393
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6625299346692257
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    34.6027209739773

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ee73a64dca9b726a955178bcb63adaebfb0b6bc5240285cd9e6c58deb1471c58 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +1.4%, which is 1.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.2452
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    0.3808730823483419
    t0_value
    1.2276
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.4336917562724063
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2568012984069195
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01760000000000006
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.4336917562724063
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1407465588153891
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2568012984069195
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.2452
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    0.3808730823483419
    t0_value
    1.2276
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.4336917562724063
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2568012984069195
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01760000000000006
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.4336917562724063
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1407465588153891
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2568012984069195

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4593b604d334a7d356c6deae60c3b022625b4db5646b69097f396262e14fe459 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +32.0%, which is 28.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.6199000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    26.991824544694268
    t0_value
    1.2276
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    31.95666340827632
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    28.013815304831418
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3923000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.95666340827632
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1407465588153891
    change_in_volatility_units
    28.013815304831418
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.6199000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    26.991824544694268
    t0_value
    1.2276
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    31.95666340827632
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    28.013815304831418
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3923000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.95666340827632
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1407465588153891
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    28.013815304831418

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 5633f80ee2a1f1e45d6774125f93e99740b15074eb2a19fafb16ca9284207cf8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Bulgaria's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +39.0%, which is 34.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.7058
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    33.092386942920875
    t0_value
    1.2276
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    38.95405669599217
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    34.147862551033334
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.47819999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    38.95405669599217
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1407465588153891
    change_in_volatility_units
    34.147862551033334
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.7058
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    z_score
    33.092386942920875
    t0_value
    1.2276
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    38.95405669599217
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_BG_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    34.147862551033334
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.47819999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    38.95405669599217
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.1407465588153891
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    34.147862551033334

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 9dfe810b16961a9ff4498a581fc3abebacfe43db491ddca0555f2b9febf4987c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. Over the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Bulgaria's pre-tax petrol price by +13.3 c/L (range +11.1–+15.5); it actually moved +14.7 c/L, leaving +1.4 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 9.9 $/bbl.

    about BulgariaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.013735778753076106
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.14691666666666658
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.13318088791359048
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.11120093688656324
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.15516083894061786
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.013735778753076106
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.14691666666666658
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.13318088791359048
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.11120093688656324
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.15516083894061786
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 5c3c30b2445ea1cf3bd11278f158580b061b291e5ba59d6ef92d317462f553f8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. Over the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Bulgaria's pre-tax petrol price by +19.7 c/L (range +11.2–+28.2); it actually moved +26.0 c/L, leaving +6.3 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 27.0 $/bbl.

    about BulgariaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.06316982969628324
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.26016666666666677
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.19699683697038353
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.11224702573585704
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2817466482049095
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    4
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.06316982969628324
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.26016666666666677
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.19699683697038353
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.11224702573585704
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2817466482049095
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 0c937ca90b0512203f0cf0f2388c0fbbab695620de6992493f0464e0a1a95f3c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Over the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Bulgaria's pre-tax diesel price by +19.1 c/L (range +14.0–+24.1); it actually moved +26.5 c/L, leaving +7.4 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 28.8 $/bbl.

    about BulgariaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.07447609057075691
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.26516666666666666
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.19069057609590975
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.14032268576171733
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.24105846643010287
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.07447609057075691
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.26516666666666666
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.19069057609590975
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.14032268576171733
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.24105846643010287
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 671ca14c1739ae307f8b89637f62c645fab5fe9e3c9e33e776e7d3e1a7548cb4 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Over the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Bulgaria's pre-tax diesel price by +34.2 c/L (range +20.4–+48.0); it actually moved +39.8 c/L, leaving +5.6 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 16.0 $/bbl.

    about BulgariaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.05611125657436716
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.39849999999999997
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.3423887434256328
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.20429958919658736
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.48047789765468046
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Bulgaria
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_BG_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    5
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.05611125657436716
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.39849999999999997
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.3423887434256328
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.20429958919658736
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.48047789765468046
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 8eeada8385c5eeb15caa7da8515e5625983b9092e335d7eace8d4e336e6ec460 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude for Bulgaria in 2026-02 is UNKNOWN: the source reports zero imports for this period, so there is no volume to take a share of - this is a reported zero, not missing data.

    about BulgariaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Bulgaria
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    value_max_pct
    null
    value_min_pct
    null
    exposure_status
    UNKNOWN
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Bulgaria
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    value_max_pct
    null
    value_min_pct
    null
    exposure_status
    UNKNOWN
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 253372fb2fbe617289a97c6038faa91c3c55df40c3a9651c3bfb563a8f6909cd · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was moderate (0%–20%) for Bulgaria in 2026-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about BulgariaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Bulgaria
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    value_max_pct
    19.6454737483111
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Bulgaria
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    value_max_pct
    19.6454737483111
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint e54d2b7e474ed0a0032d309c591f64a386d5417d965412ac14a3a20008f7617e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Whether Bulgaria's crude supply was physically reduced in 2026-02 is UNKNOWN: only 12 month(s) of comparison data, fewer than the 6 required.

    about BulgariaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Bulgaria
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    0
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    0
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Bulgaria
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    0
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 8dfbf580cd591f7a1ea45fed0b10d5ce556ee51f9d787922c4c55b9e8e086f41 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In 2026-02, Bulgaria's oil stocks stood 7.3% below their trailing 12-month mean, with 86.4 days of cover (as published).

    about BulgariaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_BG
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    days_of_cover
    86.418
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -13.940484936404712
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    1662249
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    1792813.0833333333
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -7.282637802407083
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    -7.282637802407083
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    -7.3
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Bulgaria
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_BG
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    days_of_cover
    86.418
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    -13.940484936404712
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    1662249
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    1792813.0833333333
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -7.282637802407083
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.below v1.1 · Fingerprint bae5f14096a4901ae46be0ada2f50e9891b0d09b3a9b3a72a8206bff3336ee16 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Bulgaria around Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about BulgariaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Bulgaria
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    dependence_band
    null
    dependence_range
    null
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Bulgaria
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    BG
    country_name
    Bulgaria
    country_slug
    bulgaria
    dependence_band
    null
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    null
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.unknown
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 2e1bb8ed2fa2b795b89b550fce8534c4e4e05c69ac864af2fa03d08a121f4b7c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +34.2%, which is 17.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +70.9%, which is 36.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +30.2%, which is 15.6 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Bulgaria: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.