Events / Shipping disruption
Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- Dates
- 2026-02-28 → no end date recorded
- Dated to
- the day
- Status
- Ongoing
- Scope
- Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf
What the sources said
Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.
IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Verified
Provenance
VerifiedHigh- Dataset id
- Fuel Origin curated event timeline (data/reference/events.csv)events.csvreference_events_v1
- Period
- not recorded
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-26 12:18 UTC
- Type
- Verified
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Per-row: each row traces to the agency or legislative document named in source_urls.
- An event record describes what happened, not what it caused (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §5).
- 6953 of 10179 window points carry an observed value; the rest are recorded holes, not zeros.
- Channels with no usable source: NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE, NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE, NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK, NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES, NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES.
Source documents (7)
- https://www.iea.org/news/iea-member-countries-to-carry-out-largest-ever-oil-stock-release-amid-market-disruptions-from-middle-east-conflict
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/apr26.pdf
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/mar26.pdf
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/aug26.pdf
- https://www.iea.org/commentaries/how-global-oil-supplies-have-readjusted-to-help-fill-the-huge-gap-left-by-the-strait-of-hormuz-shock
- https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67865
- https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press590.php
Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.
The event window
What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.
Latvia, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.
273 published readings, 13 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.
Europe Brent spot FOB
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 71.00 | -0.320 | -0.45% | -0.23 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 69.96 | -1.360 | -1.91% | -0.99 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 72.75 | +1.430 | +2.01% | +1.04 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 70.69 | -0.630 | -0.88% | -0.46 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 71.32 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 71.32 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 71.32 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 83.28 | +11.960 | +16.77% | +8.68 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 95.74 | +24.420 | +34.24% | +17.72 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 103.2 | +31.910 | +44.74% | +23.16 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 121.9 | +50.560 | +70.89% | +36.70 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 124.2 | +52.840 | +74.09% | +38.35 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 92.88 | +21.560 | +30.23% | +15.65 |
One volatility unit for this series is 1.93%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (756 changes). It is not a significance test.
reported crude oil imports, all origins
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −14 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −7 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −3 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −1 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| T0 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.
crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.6995 | -0.028 | -3.91% | -0.06 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.7163 | -0.012 | -1.60% | -0.03 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.7214 | -0.007 | -0.90% | -0.01 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.7280 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.7280 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.7280 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.7280 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.7676 | +0.040 | +5.45% | +0.09 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.7676 | +0.040 | +5.45% | +0.09 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.8487 | +0.121 | +16.59% | +0.27 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 1.175 | +0.447 | +61.44% | +1.01 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 1.267 | +0.539 | +74.05% | +1.21 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 1.349 | +0.621 | +85.30% | +1.40 |
One volatility unit for this series is 61.06%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.
crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.6447 | -0.004 | -0.61% | -0.68 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.6458 | -0.003 | -0.44% | -0.49 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.6489 | +0.000 | +0.04% | +0.04 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6821 | +0.033 | +5.15% | +5.72 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6821 | +0.033 | +5.15% | +5.72 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.7076 | +0.059 | +9.08% | +10.08 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.7713 | +0.123 | +18.90% | +20.99 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.7745 | +0.126 | +19.40% | +21.55 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.7531 | +0.104 | +16.09% | +17.87 |
One volatility unit for this series is 0.90%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.
ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 1.197 | +0.016 | +1.38% | +3.12 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 1.186 | +0.006 | +0.48% | +1.09 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 1.177 | -0.004 | -0.32% | -0.73 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 1.178 | -0.002 | -0.18% | -0.40 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 1.181 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 1.181 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 1.181 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 1.161 | -0.020 | -1.69% | -3.81 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 1.156 | -0.024 | -2.07% | -4.67 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 1.148 | -0.033 | -2.79% | -6.29 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 1.148 | -0.032 | -2.72% | -6.14 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 1.171 | -0.010 | -0.84% | -1.89 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 1.164 | -0.016 | -1.36% | -3.08 |
One volatility unit for this series is 0.44%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (765 changes). It is not a significance test.
direct crude Hormuz exposure D1
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. The line stops at −30, −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +3, +7, +14, +30, +60, +90 where no figure was published within one period of the offset.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| −14 | 2026-02-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| −7 | 2026-02-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| −3 | 2026-02-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| −1 | 2026-02-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| T0 | 2026-02-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | not published | not published | not published | not published |
No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.
direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 3.124 | +2.676 | +598.01% | not published |
| −14 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 0.4475 | 0.000 | 0.00% | not published |
| −7 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 0.4475 | 0.000 | 0.00% | not published |
| −3 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 0.4475 | 0.000 | 0.00% | not published |
| −1 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 0.4475 | 0.000 | 0.00% | not published |
| T0 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 0.4475 | 0.000 | 0.00% | not published |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | not published |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | not published |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | not published |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | not published |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | not published |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | not published |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 0 | -0.448 | -100.00% | not published |
No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.
inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 76.07 | -11.115 | -12.75% | -0.66 |
| −14 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 87.18 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −7 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 87.18 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −3 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 87.18 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 87.18 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 87.18 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 87.95 | +0.767 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 87.95 | +0.768 | +0.88% | +0.05 |
One volatility unit for this series is 19.42%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.
crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.3714 | -0.009 | -2.40% | -0.66 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.3742 | -0.006 | -1.68% | -0.46 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.3817 | +0.001 | +0.29% | +0.08 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.4615 | +0.081 | +21.26% | +5.80 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.4615 | +0.081 | +21.26% | +5.80 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.5233 | +0.143 | +37.50% | +10.24 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.6763 | +0.296 | +77.69% | +21.21 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.6445 | +0.264 | +69.35% | +18.93 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.5248 | +0.144 | +37.88% | +10.34 |
One volatility unit for this series is 3.66%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.
crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.3714 | -0.009 | -2.40% | -0.66 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.3742 | -0.006 | -1.68% | -0.46 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.3817 | +0.001 | +0.29% | +0.08 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.3806 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.4615 | +0.081 | +21.26% | +5.80 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.4615 | +0.081 | +21.26% | +5.80 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.5233 | +0.143 | +37.50% | +10.24 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.6763 | +0.296 | +77.69% | +21.21 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.6445 | +0.264 | +69.35% | +18.93 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.5248 | +0.144 | +37.88% | +10.34 |
One volatility unit for this series is 3.66%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.
national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-01 | 443,358 | -85,543 | -16.17% | -1.41 |
| −14 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 528,901 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −7 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 528,901 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −3 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 528,901 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 528,901 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-01same print as T0 | 528,901 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-03-01 | 600,755 | +71,854 | +13.59% | +1.18 |
| +3 | 2026-03-01 | 600,755 | +71,854 | +13.59% | +1.18 |
| +7 | 2026-03-01 | 600,755 | +71,854 | +13.59% | +1.18 |
| +14 | 2026-03-01 | 600,755 | +71,854 | +13.59% | +1.18 |
| +30 | 2026-03-01 | 600,755 | +71,854 | +13.59% | +1.18 |
| +60 | 2026-04-01 | 487,111 | -41,790 | -7.90% | -0.69 |
| +90 | 2026-05-01 | 487,449 | -41,452 | -7.84% | -0.68 |
One volatility unit for this series is 11.48%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.
not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | -0.0084 | -0.008 | not published | not published |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.0053 | +0.005 | not published | not published |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.0020 | +0.002 | not published | not published |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | -0.0228 | -0.023 | not published | not published |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | -0.0228 | -0.023 | not published | not published |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.0980 | +0.098 | not published | not published |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | -0.0175 | -0.018 | not published | not published |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | -0.1431 | -0.143 | not published | not published |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | -0.2489 | -0.249 | not published | not published |
No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.
not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | -0.0287 | -0.029 | not published | not published |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | -0.0041 | -0.004 | not published | not published |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | -0.0031 | -0.003 | not published | not published |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | -0.0184 | -0.018 | not published | not published |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | -0.0184 | -0.018 | not published | not published |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.0249 | +0.025 | not published | not published |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.1563 | +0.156 | not published | not published |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.0827 | +0.083 | not published | not published |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.1827 | +0.183 | not published | not published |
No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.
Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 1.494 | -0.035 | -2.26% | -0.62 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 1.520 | -0.008 | -0.50% | -0.14 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 1.523 | -0.006 | -0.36% | -0.10 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 1.528 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 1.528 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 1.528 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 1.528 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 1.548 | +0.020 | +1.33% | +0.37 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 1.548 | +0.020 | +1.33% | +0.37 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 1.793 | +0.265 | +17.32% | +4.79 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 2.048 | +0.520 | +34.03% | +9.41 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 1.921 | +0.393 | +25.73% | +7.12 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 1.892 | +0.364 | +23.84% | +6.59 |
One volatility unit for this series is 3.62%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.
Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 1.501 | -0.030 | -1.98% | -0.57 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 1.523 | -0.008 | -0.54% | -0.16 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 1.528 | -0.004 | -0.23% | -0.07 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 1.532 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 1.532 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 1.532 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 1.532 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 1.550 | +0.018 | +1.19% | +0.34 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 1.550 | +0.018 | +1.19% | +0.34 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 1.633 | +0.101 | +6.62% | +1.91 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 1.869 | +0.338 | +22.04% | +6.36 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 1.784 | +0.252 | +16.47% | +4.76 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 1.879 | +0.347 | +22.68% | +6.55 |
One volatility unit for this series is 3.46%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.
Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.6911 | -0.037 | -5.06% | -0.84 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.7216 | -0.006 | -0.87% | -0.14 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.7234 | -0.005 | -0.62% | -0.10 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.7280 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.7280 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.7280 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.7280 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.7448 | +0.017 | +2.31% | +0.38 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.7448 | +0.017 | +2.31% | +0.38 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.9467 | +0.219 | +30.05% | +4.96 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 1.158 | +0.430 | +59.04% | +9.75 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 1.124 | +0.396 | +54.39% | +8.98 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 1.100 | +0.372 | +51.12% | +8.44 |
One volatility unit for this series is 6.06%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.
Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.6160 | -0.033 | -5.04% | -0.77 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.6418 | -0.007 | -1.06% | -0.16 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.6458 | -0.003 | -0.45% | -0.07 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.6487 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6637 | +0.015 | +2.31% | +0.35 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.6637 | +0.015 | +2.31% | +0.35 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.7324 | +0.084 | +12.91% | +1.98 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.9276 | +0.279 | +43.00% | +6.59 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.8572 | +0.209 | +32.15% | +4.93 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.9357 | +0.287 | +44.25% | +6.78 |
One volatility unit for this series is 6.52%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.
total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.8024 | +0.002 | +0.30% | +0.21 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.7987 | -0.001 | -0.17% | -0.12 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.7991 | -0.001 | -0.12% | -0.09 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.8000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.8000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.8000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.8000 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.8036 | +0.004 | +0.44% | +0.32 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.8036 | +0.004 | +0.44% | +0.32 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.8460 | +0.046 | +5.74% | +4.13 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.8903 | +0.090 | +11.28% | +8.11 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.7973 | -0.003 | -0.34% | -0.25 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.7923 | -0.008 | -0.97% | -0.70 |
One volatility unit for this series is 1.39%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.
total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-26 | 0.8854 | +0.002 | +0.27% | +0.23 |
| −14 | 2026-02-09 | 0.8815 | -0.001 | -0.16% | -0.14 |
| −7 | 2026-02-16 | 0.8824 | -0.001 | -0.07% | -0.06 |
| −3 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.8830 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.8830 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.8830 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-23same print as T0 | 0.8830 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-02 | 0.8861 | +0.003 | +0.36% | +0.30 |
| +7 | 2026-03-02 | 0.8861 | +0.003 | +0.36% | +0.30 |
| +14 | 2026-03-09 | 0.9006 | +0.018 | +1.99% | +1.68 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 0.9416 | +0.059 | +6.63% | +5.60 |
| +60 | 2026-04-27 | 0.9268 | +0.044 | +4.96% | +4.19 |
| +90 | 2026-05-25 | 0.9433 | +0.060 | +6.83% | +5.76 |
One volatility unit for this series is 1.18%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.
US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 32.03 | -9.466 | -22.81% | -3.77 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 32.27 | -9.224 | -22.23% | -3.68 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 37.84 | -3.656 | -8.81% | -1.46 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 43.84 | +2.352 | +5.67% | +0.94 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 41.49 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 41.49 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 41.49 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 52.13 | +10.636 | +25.63% | +4.24 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 58.90 | +17.412 | +41.96% | +6.94 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 66.83 | +25.336 | +61.06% | +10.10 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 66.87 | +25.376 | +61.16% | +10.12 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 54.93 | +13.436 | +32.38% | +5.36 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 55.17 | +13.678 | +32.97% | +5.45 |
One volatility unit for this series is 6.05%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.
US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 19.97 | +4.100 | +25.83% | +0.93 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 10.43 | -5.444 | -34.30% | -1.23 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 11.42 | -4.454 | -28.06% | -1.00 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 13.39 | -2.478 | -15.61% | -0.56 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 15.87 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 15.87 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 15.87 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 19.87 | +4.000 | +25.20% | +0.90 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 20.56 | +4.686 | +29.52% | +1.06 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 25.33 | +9.460 | +59.60% | +2.13 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 21.09 | +5.216 | +32.86% | +1.18 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 34.94 | +19.064 | +120.11% | +4.30 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 41.27 | +25.396 | +160.01% | +5.73 |
One volatility unit for this series is 27.92%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.
US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2026-01-29 | 23.42 | -7.240 | -23.62% | -2.64 |
| −14 | 2026-02-13 | 21.47 | -9.182 | -29.95% | -3.35 |
| −7 | 2026-02-20 | 27.04 | -3.614 | -11.79% | -1.32 |
| −3 | 2026-02-25 | 33.05 | +2.394 | +7.81% | +0.87 |
| −1 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 30.66 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 30.66 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2026-02-27same print as T0 | 30.66 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2026-03-03 | 41.29 | +10.636 | +34.69% | +3.88 |
| +7 | 2026-03-06 | 48.07 | +17.412 | +56.80% | +6.35 |
| +14 | 2026-03-13 | 56.03 | +25.378 | +82.78% | +9.26 |
| +30 | 2026-03-30 | 56.07 | +25.418 | +82.91% | +9.28 |
| +60 | 2026-04-29 | 58.29 | +27.632 | +90.14% | +10.08 |
| +90 | 2026-05-29 | 43.07 | +12.418 | +40.51% | +4.53 |
One volatility unit for this series is 8.94%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.
Not available: licence-blocked
A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.
Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate
Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
EU refined-product benchmark
EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
EU refined-product benchmark
EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread
No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread
No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
wholesale / rack price
Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
wholesale / rack price
Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
T0 is 2026-02-28. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.
Is Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026) really the reason?
The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.
Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.
Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.
| Dimension | Status | Published figure, or why there is none |
|---|---|---|
| Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz. | Nothing published in the window | not published |
| Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz. | Observed | 0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)-100.00% from the level at T0 |
| Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel. | Observed | 87.95 days of cover at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)+0.88% from the level at T0 = +0.05 volatility units |
| Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against. | Observed | 121.9 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+70.89% from the level at T0 = +36.70 volatility units |
| Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against. | Unavailable | EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted. |
| Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned. | Unavailable | No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished. |
| Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo. | Unavailable | Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate. |
| InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change. | Observed | 600,755 tonnes at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)+13.59% from the level at T0 = +1.18 volatility units |
| Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt. | Unavailable | Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant. |
| Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out. | Observed | 1.158 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+59.04% from the level at T0 = +9.75 volatility units |
| Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid. | Observed | 2.048 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+34.03% from the level at T0 = +9.41 volatility units |
Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
What the pump price did around this date
The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.
Price decomposition, 2026-02-21 to 2026-03-30 →
The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.
Actual vs crude-only: Latvia, petrol (euro-super 95)
What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.
The crude-only comparison could not be read.
API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'latvia'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.
What the numbers support, sentence by sentence
Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.
In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's pre-tax petrol price moved +2.3%, which is 0.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.6636912396694216
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 0.8688897602859436
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 2.3136516659820803
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.3547256176087153
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.015008264462809895
- change_pct_from_t0
- 2.3136516659820803
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.3547256176087153
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.6636912396694216
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 0.8688897602859436
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 2.3136516659820803
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.3547256176087153
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.015008264462809895
- change_pct_from_t0
- 2.3136516659820803
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.3547256176087153
Template
event.price_move.within_normalv1.1 · Fingerprinta440d7ec52f43f72a8d69d5f4c9e8a217481b41dd4e7102dab68caa5bfced8c6· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's pre-tax petrol price moved +43.0%, which is 6.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.9276333884297522
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 10.273506463131826
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 43.00257967064607
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.593091283671246
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.2789504132231405
- change_pct_from_t0
- 43.00257967064607
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.593091283671246
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.9276333884297522
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 10.273506463131826
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 43.00257967064607
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.593091283671246
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.2789504132231405
- change_pct_from_t0
- 43.00257967064607
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.593091283671246
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint7920bb760da14558e7f36b28be866f4035d21dab80aa4180bd00faa0192dce77· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's pre-tax petrol price moved +44.3%, which is 6.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.9357325619834711
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 10.562091000464351
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 44.25113618642935
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.784518103746434
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.28704958677685943
- change_pct_from_t0
- 44.25113618642935
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.784518103746434
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.9357325619834711
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 10.562091000464351
- t0_value
- 0.6486829752066117
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 44.25113618642935
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.784518103746434
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.28704958677685943
- change_pct_from_t0
- 44.25113618642935
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.522369829331537
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.784518103746434
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint1a483f14228f08eff299e7bccda2ecce05ee82c174b7f26fae24457532ab6c7c· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +1.2%, which is 0.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.54983
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 1.4669083097992408
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 1.1856339812100487
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.34233196895436907
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.018159999999999954
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.1856339812100487
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.34233196895436907
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.54983
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 1.4669083097992408
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 1.1856339812100487
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.34233196895436907
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.018159999999999954
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.1856339812100487
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.34233196895436907
Template
event.price_move.within_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint4d05a9953ad2c9f42a2c9ab8e14ad57c49ac435929a11512f6eedc77b7589f22· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +22.0%, which is 6.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.8692000000000002
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 14.585696617531779
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 22.036731149660184
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.3627373062317485
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3375300000000001
- change_pct_from_t0
- 22.036731149660184
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.3627373062317485
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.8692000000000002
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 14.585696617531779
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 22.036731149660184
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.3627373062317485
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3375300000000001
- change_pct_from_t0
- 22.036731149660184
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.3627373062317485
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint437f6a9cb29149dea61fa24495a61711982bc89a1a11ef100eeb35b09a728aad· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +22.7%, which is 6.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.879
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 14.98825204044494
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 22.67655565493872
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.547475923839278
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3473299999999999
- change_pct_from_t0
- 22.67655565493872
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.547475923839278
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.879
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 14.98825204044494
- t0_value
- 1.53167
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 22.67655565493872
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.547475923839278
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3473299999999999
- change_pct_from_t0
- 22.67655565493872
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.4634042062489554
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.547475923839278
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint528c5fd415212c0f0b7fe7be10114a7c2fea2e2cfb2c2eb6f79135f18f623701· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's pre-tax diesel price moved +2.3%, which is 0.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.7447615702479339
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 1.2546212964987946
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 2.3080464311278583
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.38112208387859287
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.01680165289256197
- change_pct_from_t0
- 2.3080464311278583
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.38112208387859287
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 0.7447615702479339
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 1.2546212964987946
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 2.3080464311278583
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.38112208387859287
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.01680165289256197
- change_pct_from_t0
- 2.3080464311278583
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.38112208387859287
Template
event.price_move.within_normalv1.1 · Fingerprintb6c924fa1c9a62c3a2e4086e3cb5aee53c0a2ce9092ea3db3a211ec286c810c4· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's pre-tax diesel price moved +59.0%, which is 9.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.1577119834710743
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 15.709735566569263
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 59.03512760386065
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 9.748326788827763
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.4297520661157024
- change_pct_from_t0
- 59.03512760386065
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- change_in_volatility_units
- 9.748326788827763
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.1577119834710743
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 15.709735566569263
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 59.03512760386065
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 9.748326788827763
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.4297520661157024
- change_pct_from_t0
- 59.03512760386065
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 9.748326788827763
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint89dacb9bee91c66f6c885d69e0f184740af79bd2f20838c932fd1096b3d705ad· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's pre-tax diesel price moved +51.1%, which is 8.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.1000590909090908
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 13.69162607134218
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 51.115338177619655
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 8.440551256541946
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3720991735537189
- change_pct_from_t0
- 51.115338177619655
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- change_in_volatility_units
- 8.440551256541946
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.1000590909090908
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 13.69162607134218
- t0_value
- 0.7279599173553719
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 51.115338177619655
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 8.440551256541946
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.3720991735537189
- change_pct_from_t0
- 51.115338177619655
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 6.055924148082405
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 8.440551256541946
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint2274f64bb416352b219532edcfcf5655b830853ba2f35639d9989fd664d067f0· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +1.3%, which is 0.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.54833
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 2.137218688511324
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 1.33049738219895
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.36797623415429
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.02032999999999996
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.33049738219895
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.36797623415429
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.54833
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 2.137218688511324
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 1.33049738219895
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-02
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 0.36797623415429
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.02032999999999996
- change_pct_from_t0
- 1.33049738219895
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 0.36797623415429
Template
event.price_move.within_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint9a5c4e210d6d1e2516741ecc4f846aed1a22ad813531fbfe230659709abb8812· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +34.0%, which is 9.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 2.048
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 23.04417428833747
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 34.031413612565444
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 9.412082723080728
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.52
- change_pct_from_t0
- 34.031413612565444
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- change_in_volatility_units
- 9.412082723080728
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 2.048
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 23.04417428833747
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 34.031413612565444
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 9.412082723080728
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.52
- change_pct_from_t0
- 34.031413612565444
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 9.412082723080728
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint322fcd9fdb9a759e5b6c9822293a9249b1a53e15dc8e6590bf6cc5002a8001f4· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Latvia's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +23.8%, which is 6.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.89233
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 16.530703841392615
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 23.84358638743456
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.59443095865385
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.36433000000000004
- change_pct_from_t0
- 23.84358638743456
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.59443095865385
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 1.89233
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- z_score
- 16.530703841392615
- t0_value
- 1.528
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 23.84358638743456
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_LV_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 6.59443095865385
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.36433000000000004
- change_pct_from_t0
- 23.84358638743456
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 4
- normal_volatility_pct
- 3.6157155237397247
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 6.59443095865385
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprintac306fb4b13169532b4193fb0f65e51209de79904a9916948908c816a711b017· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCOver the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax petrol price by +9.3 c/L (range +1.0–+17.7); it actually moved +21.5 c/L, leaving +12.1 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 9.9 $/bbl.
about LatviaCalculatedMediumWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.12135269338084065
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.2146528925619835
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.09330019918114285
- proxy_volatility_units
- 2.8999750350600633
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 9.9
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.009708876431058222
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.1768915219312257
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Thresholds
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.12135269338084065
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.2146528925619835
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.09330019918114285
- proxy_volatility_units
- 2.8999750350600633
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 9.9
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.009708876431058222
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.1768915219312257
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Template
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.1 · Fingerprint5dd010d2de9f48dc56d80788bc673f3f54be11ff5aea3b17efa8f93e568c67bf· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCOver the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax petrol price by +10.4 c/L (range -14.1–+35.0); it actually moved +28.7 c/L, leaving +18.3 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 27.0 $/bbl.
about LatviaCalculatedMediumWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.1826753002020589
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.28704958677685943
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.10437428657480052
- proxy_volatility_units
- 7.918982333112501
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 27.034
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- -0.14133359644445065
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.35008216959405036
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Thresholds
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 0
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.1826753002020589
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.28704958677685943
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.10437428657480052
- proxy_volatility_units
- 7.918982333112501
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 27.034
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- -0.14133359644445065
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.35008216959405036
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 27.922644296421584
Template
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.1 · Fingerprintfe49b7c1894dd3131c8c296de2bd241d0646106ff4797db960b2f6331120533d· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCOver the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax diesel price by +35.7 c/L (range +23.6–+47.8); it actually moved +40.9 c/L, leaving +5.2 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 28.8 $/bbl.
about LatviaCalculatedMediumWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.051923798713310265
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.40909090909090917
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.3571671103775989
- proxy_volatility_units
- 10.98407307729496
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 28.757999999999996
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.2361992991401436
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.4781349216150492
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Thresholds
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-03-23
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-03-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.051923798713310265
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.40909090909090917
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.3571671103775989
- proxy_volatility_units
- 10.98407307729496
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 28.757999999999996
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.2361992991401436
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.4781349216150492
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Template
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.1 · Fingerprint4464e9d03862a3738479711f0218ab2f9064451a276481f4500c869656f476b0· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCOver the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Latvia's pre-tax diesel price by +62.1 c/L (range +25.0–+99.2); it actually moved +37.2 c/L, leaving -24.9 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 16.0 $/bbl.
about LatviaCalculatedMediumWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.24888179809030453
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.3720991735537189
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.6209809716440234
- proxy_volatility_units
- 6.106591569642946
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 15.988
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.24985381133686047
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.9921081319511761
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Thresholds
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Latvia
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_LV_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2026-05-22
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2026-02-23
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-05-25
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.24888179809030453
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2026-02-23
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.3720991735537189
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.6209809716440234
- proxy_volatility_units
- 6.106591569642946
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 15.988
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.24985381133686047
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.9921081319511761
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 6.045708372099533
Template
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.1 · Fingerprintda9eb674a942511c2d8119dfb9490c8f6132125dd457cba468bf59a0bb986f80· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCDirect physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude for Latvia in 2026-02 is UNKNOWN: the source reports zero imports for this period, so there is no volume to take a share of - this is a reported zero, not missing data.
about LatviaUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- NO_OBSERVATION
- country
- Latvia
- commodity
- crude
- dimension
- DIRECT_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- value_max_pct
- null
- value_min_pct
- null
- exposure_status
- UNKNOWN
- value_point_pct
- null
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
- band_applied_to
- upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
- dependence_limited_max_pct
- 10
- dependence_moderate_max_pct
- 33
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- NO_OBSERVATION
- country
- Latvia
- commodity
- crude
- dimension
- DIRECT_CRUDE
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- value_max_pct
- null
- value_min_pct
- null
- exposure_status
- UNKNOWN
- statement_topic
- hormuz
- value_point_pct
- null
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.dependence.unknownv1.1 · Fingerprinte949e8876739424dbe474f31815ae9bbc02464e041a3b9ee96a6cb18d55c4dfb· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCDirect physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%) for Latvia in 2026-02.
about LatviaCalculatedLowWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- commodity
- refined product
- dimension
- DIRECT_PRODUCT
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- value_max_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- value_min_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- value_point_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
- band_applied_to
- upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
- dependence_limited_max_pct
- 10
- dependence_moderate_max_pct
- 33
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- commodity
- refined product
- dimension
- DIRECT_PRODUCT
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- value_max_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- value_min_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- statement_topic
- hormuz
- value_point_pct
- 0.44750504140387
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.dependence.pointv1.1 · Fingerprint7a28220d3f0ffaaff478745a88d0171f9df483fa437934eeed5d04de2b5edd51· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCWhether Latvia's crude supply was physically reduced in 2026-02 is UNKNOWN: only 12 month(s) of comparison data, fewer than the 6 required.
about LatviaUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- country
- Latvia
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- partner_role
- ORIGIN
- value_tonnes
- 0
- baseline_months
- 12
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
- baseline_mean_tonnes
- 0
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
- min_baseline_months
- 6
- baseline_months_used
- 12
- supply_reduction_pct
- -10
- supply_baseline_months
- 12
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- country
- Latvia
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- partner_role
- ORIGIN
- value_tonnes
- 0
- baseline_months
- 12
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- baseline_mean_tonnes
- 0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.supply.unknownv1.1 · Fingerprintecae14e47d827d0938245d4ff49d9fe07237d669f2c4054a40a369627f417bc1· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn 2026-02, Latvia's oil stocks stood 3.1% above their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 87.2 days of cover (as published).
about LatviaCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- direction
- above
- siec_code
- O4000
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- holder_type
- STK_CL
- series_code
- INVENTORY_LV
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- days_of_cover
- 87.184
- metric_status
- COMPUTED
- mom_change_pct
- 19.294340014164625
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
- total_stock_tonnes
- 528901
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- observation_gap_days
- 27
- trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
- 512975.75
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
- 3.104483983892027
- trailing_12m_observations
- 12
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
- band_applied_to
- the rounded figure printed in the sentence
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- trailing_window_months
- 12
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
- 3.104483983892027
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
- 3.1
- inventory_material_deviation_pct
- 5
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2026-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Latvia
- direction
- above
- siec_code
- O4000
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- holder_type
- STK_CL
- series_code
- INVENTORY_LV
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- days_of_cover
- 87.184
- metric_status
- COMPUTED
- mom_change_pct
- 19.294340014164625
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2026-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
- total_stock_tonnes
- 528901
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 27
- trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
- 512975.75
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
- 3.104483983892027
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- trailing_12m_observations
- 12
Template
event.inventory_level.in_linev1.1 · Fingerprintae1392a141925af8adf818eb96bf12c2279e5808eb614da24dd4fc1c85333d92· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCSummary of what can be checked here
Only part of the chain can be checked for Latvia around Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.
about LatviaUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- country
- Latvia
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- dependence_band
- null
- dependence_range
- null
- channels_available
- ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
- supply_template_id
- event.supply.unknown
- channels_unavailable
- ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
- channels_total
- 8
- channels_available
- 4
- verdict_partial_min_channels
- 3
- verdict_assessable_min_channels
- 8
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- country
- Latvia
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- LV
- country_name
- Latvia
- country_slug
- latvia
- dependence_band
- null
- statement_topic
- event
- dependence_range
- null
- channels_available
- ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
- supply_template_id
- event.supply.unknown
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- channels_unavailable
- ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.verdict.partialv1.1 · Fingerprint09c1babb1f7cbc4a6da33c57d8d08b883a4a3ee5f784d1e4fd72578abb846690· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +34.2%, which is 17.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 95.74
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 11.429511613277612
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 34.24004486819967
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 24.42
- change_pct_from_t0
- 34.24004486819967
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- change_in_volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 95.74
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 11.429511613277612
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 34.24004486819967
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-06
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 24.42
- change_pct_from_t0
- 34.24004486819967
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 17.72499106459417
Template
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +70.9%, which is 36.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 121.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 20.908399390463835
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 70.89175546831184
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 50.56
- change_pct_from_t0
- 70.89175546831184
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- change_in_volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 121.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 20.908399390463835
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 70.89175546831184
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-03-30
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 50.56
- change_pct_from_t0
- 70.89175546831184
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 36.69842539827523
Template
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +30.2%, which is 15.6 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedHighWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 92.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 10.392418306362824
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 30.22994952327538
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-05-29
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 21.560000000000002
- change_pct_from_t0
- 30.22994952327538
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- change_in_volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- value
- 92.88
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 10.392418306362824
- t0_value
- 71.32
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 30.22994952327538
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2026-05-29
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 21.560000000000002
- change_pct_from_t0
- 30.22994952327538
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.9317383429656259
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 15.64909121018224
Template
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprintda6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCFreight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["freight rates"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Thresholds
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["freight rates"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.channel.unavailablev1.1 · Fingerprintcbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCRefined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refined-product benchmark"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Thresholds
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refined-product benchmark"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.channel.unavailablev1.1 · Fingerprint8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCWholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["wholesale prices"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Thresholds
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["wholesale prices"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.channel.unavailablev1.1 · Fingerprintcb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCRefining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refining margin"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- reason_code
- NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Thresholds
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refining margin"]
- event_name
- Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
- event_slug
- hormuz-2026
- event_type
- HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.channel.unavailablev1.1 · Fingerprintc3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
What this does not show
- It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
- A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
- Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
- Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.
How to read the labels
- OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
- VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
- CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
- Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
- Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
- Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
- UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.