Fuel Origin

Events / Shipping disruption

Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)

Dates
2026-02-28 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf

What the sources said

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Verified
Retrieved 2026-09-23 07:22 UTCRevision 1
Source documents (7)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Romania, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

273 published readings, 13 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90130.763.52026-01-29: 71.00 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 69.96 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 72.75 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 70.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 71.32 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 83.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 95.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 103.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 121.9 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 124.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 92.88 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2971.00-0.320-0.45%-0.23
−142026-02-1369.96-1.360-1.91%-0.99
−72026-02-2072.75+1.430+2.01%+1.04
−32026-02-2570.69-0.630-0.88%-0.46
−12026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0383.28+11.960+16.77%+8.68
+72026-03-0695.74+24.420+34.24%+17.72
+142026-03-13103.2+31.910+44.74%+23.16
+302026-03-30121.9+50.560+70.89%+36.70
+602026-04-29124.2+52.840+74.09%+38.35
+902026-05-2992.88+21.560+30.23%+15.65

One volatility unit for this series is 1.93%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (756 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90777,200268,8002026-01-01: 728,000 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 527,000 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 318,000 tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 486,000 tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 568,000 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-01728,000+201,000+38.14%+0.91
−142026-02-01same print as T0527,0000.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T0527,0000.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T0527,0000.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T0527,0000.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T0527,0000.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-01318,000-209,000-39.66%-0.95
+32026-03-01318,000-209,000-39.66%-0.95
+72026-03-01318,000-209,000-39.66%-0.95
+142026-03-01318,000-209,000-39.66%-0.95
+302026-03-01318,000-209,000-39.66%-0.95
+602026-04-01486,000-41,000-7.78%-0.19
+902026-05-01568,000+41,000+7.78%+0.19

One volatility unit for this series is 41.83%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2040.7082026-01-26: 0.7560 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.7701 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.7730 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.7783 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7864 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8352 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.048 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.107 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.156 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.7560-0.022-2.86%-1.10
−142026-02-090.7701-0.008-1.05%-0.40
−72026-02-160.7730-0.005-0.69%-0.26
−32026-02-23same print as T00.77830.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.77830.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.77830.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.77830.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7864+0.008+1.03%+0.40
+72026-03-020.7864+0.008+1.03%+0.40
+142026-03-090.8352+0.057+7.31%+2.80
+302026-03-301.048+0.270+34.71%+13.29
+602026-04-271.107+0.329+42.28%+16.19
+902026-05-251.156+0.377+48.48%+18.57

One volatility unit for this series is 2.61%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.8830.6402026-01-26: 0.6639 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6734 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6745 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6774 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6817 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7089 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.8593 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.8554 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.8387 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.6639-0.013-1.99%-1.55
−142026-02-090.6734-0.004-0.58%-0.45
−72026-02-160.6745-0.003-0.42%-0.33
−32026-02-23same print as T00.67740.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.67740.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.67740.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.67740.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6817+0.004+0.64%+0.50
+72026-03-020.6817+0.004+0.64%+0.50
+142026-03-090.7089+0.032+4.65%+3.62
+302026-03-300.8593+0.182+26.86%+20.91
+602026-04-270.8554+0.178+26.28%+20.46
+902026-05-250.8387+0.161+23.82%+18.55

One volatility unit for this series is 1.28%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2031.1422026-01-29: 1.197 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 1.186 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 1.177 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 1.178 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 1.181 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 1.161 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 1.156 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 1.148 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.148 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 1.171 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 1.164 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-291.197+0.016+1.38%+3.12
−142026-02-131.186+0.006+0.48%+1.09
−72026-02-201.177-0.004-0.32%-0.73
−32026-02-251.178-0.002-0.18%-0.40
−12026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-031.161-0.020-1.69%-3.81
+72026-03-061.156-0.024-2.07%-4.67
+142026-03-131.148-0.033-2.79%-6.29
+302026-03-301.148-0.032-2.72%-6.14
+602026-04-291.171-0.010-0.84%-1.89
+902026-05-291.164-0.016-1.36%-3.08

One volatility unit for this series is 0.44%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (765 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0000.0002026-01-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-0100.000not publishednot published
−142026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−72026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−32026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-01same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+72026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+142026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+302026-03-0100.000not publishednot published
+602026-04-0100.000not publishednot published
+902026-05-0100.000not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9073.040.002026-01-01: 0 to 30.65 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-02-01: 0 to 39.29 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-03-01: 0 to 55.70 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-04-01: 0 to 44.44 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-05-01: 0 to 65.22 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-010–30.65not publishednot publishednot published
−142026-02-010–39.29not publishednot publishednot published
−72026-02-010–39.29not publishednot publishednot published
−32026-02-010–39.29not publishednot publishednot published
−12026-02-010–39.29not publishednot publishednot published
T02026-02-010–39.29not publishednot publishednot published
+12026-03-010–55.70not publishednot publishednot published
+32026-03-010–55.70not publishednot publishednot published
+72026-03-010–55.70not publishednot publishednot published
+142026-03-010–55.70not publishednot publishednot published
+302026-03-010–55.70not publishednot publishednot published
+602026-04-010–44.44not publishednot publishednot published
+902026-05-010–65.22not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9092.5190.582026-01-01: 92.32 days of cover, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 92.13 days of cover, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 90.77 days of cover, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 91.06 days of cover, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 90.93 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-0192.32+0.191+0.21%+0.09
−142026-02-01same print as T092.130.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T092.130.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T092.130.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T092.130.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T092.130.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-0190.77-1.366-1.48%-0.65
+32026-03-0190.77-1.366-1.48%-0.65
+72026-03-0190.77-1.366-1.48%-0.65
+142026-03-0190.77-1.366-1.48%-0.65
+302026-03-0190.77-1.366-1.48%-0.65
+602026-04-0191.06-1.070-1.16%-0.51
+902026-05-0190.93-1.204-1.31%-0.57

One volatility unit for this series is 2.29%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

One volatility unit for this series is 3.66%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

One volatility unit for this series is 3.66%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902,611,0402,403,9602026-01-01: 2,424,000 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 2,584,000 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 2,524,000 tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 2,591,000 tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 2,516,000 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-012,424,000-160,000-6.19%-1.34
−142026-02-01same print as T02,584,0000.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T02,584,0000.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T02,584,0000.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T02,584,0000.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T02,584,0000.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-012,524,000-60,000-2.32%-0.50
+32026-03-012,524,000-60,000-2.32%-0.50
+72026-03-012,524,000-60,000-2.32%-0.50
+142026-03-012,524,000-60,000-2.32%-0.50
+302026-03-012,524,000-60,000-2.32%-0.50
+602026-04-012,591,000+7,000+0.27%+0.06
+902026-05-012,516,000-68,000-2.63%-0.57

One volatility unit for this series is 4.62%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.107-0.1622026-01-26: -0.0077 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: -0.0058 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: -0.0044 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.0132 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.0234 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.0808 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: -0.1356 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: -0.1292 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-26-0.0077-0.008not publishednot published
−142026-02-09-0.0058-0.006not publishednot published
−72026-02-16-0.0044-0.004not publishednot published
−32026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-020.0132+0.013not publishednot published
+72026-03-020.0132+0.013not publishednot published
+142026-03-090.0234+0.023not publishednot published
+302026-03-300.0808+0.081not publishednot published
+602026-04-27-0.1356-0.136not publishednot published
+902026-05-25-0.1292-0.129not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.071-0.0572026-01-26: -0.0071 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: -0.0108 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: -0.0078 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.0143 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.0340 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.0589 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: -0.0450 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.0530 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-26-0.0071-0.007not publishednot published
−142026-02-09-0.0108-0.011not publishednot published
−72026-02-16-0.0078-0.008not publishednot published
−32026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-020.0143+0.014not publishednot published
+72026-03-020.0143+0.014not publishednot published
+142026-03-090.0340+0.034not publishednot published
+302026-03-300.0589+0.059not publishednot published
+602026-04-27-0.0450-0.045not publishednot published
+902026-05-250.0530+0.053not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902.0871.5162026-01-26: 1.571 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 1.591 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 1.596 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.607 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.633 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.704 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 2.032 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.771 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.820 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-261.571-0.036-2.25%-1.35
−142026-02-091.591-0.016-1.02%-0.61
−72026-02-161.596-0.012-0.72%-0.43
−32026-02-23same print as T01.6070.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T01.6070.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T01.6070.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T01.6070.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.633+0.026+1.59%+0.95
+72026-03-021.633+0.026+1.59%+0.95
+142026-03-091.704+0.097+6.03%+3.60
+302026-03-302.032+0.425+26.41%+15.78
+602026-04-271.771+0.163+10.14%+6.06
+902026-05-251.820+0.212+13.21%+7.89

One volatility unit for this series is 1.67%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.8751.4832026-01-26: 1.521 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 1.529 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 1.533 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.546 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.568 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.625 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.837 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.707 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.785 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-261.521-0.025-1.61%-1.06
−142026-02-091.529-0.017-1.11%-0.73
−72026-02-161.533-0.013-0.82%-0.54
−32026-02-23same print as T01.5460.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T01.5460.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T01.5460.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T01.5460.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.568+0.022+1.45%+0.96
+72026-03-021.568+0.022+1.45%+0.96
+142026-03-091.625+0.079+5.12%+3.39
+302026-03-301.837+0.291+18.84%+12.46
+602026-04-271.707+0.161+10.43%+6.89
+902026-05-251.785+0.239+15.45%+10.21

One volatility unit for this series is 1.51%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1750.7032026-01-26: 0.7483 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.7643 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.7686 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.7783 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7996 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8585 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.129 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.9718 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.027 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.7483-0.030-3.85%-1.80
−142026-02-090.7643-0.014-1.80%-0.84
−72026-02-160.7686-0.010-1.25%-0.58
−32026-02-23same print as T00.77830.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.77830.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.77830.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.77830.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7996+0.021+2.73%+1.27
+72026-03-020.7996+0.021+2.73%+1.27
+142026-03-090.8585+0.080+10.31%+4.81
+302026-03-301.129+0.351+45.09%+21.05
+602026-04-270.9718+0.193+24.85%+11.61
+902026-05-251.027+0.248+31.89%+14.89

One volatility unit for this series is 2.14%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9500.6252026-01-26: 0.6568 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6627 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6667 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6774 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6959 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7429 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.9182 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.8104 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.8917 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.6568-0.021-3.04%-1.64
−142026-02-090.6627-0.015-2.17%-1.17
−72026-02-160.6667-0.011-1.57%-0.85
−32026-02-23same print as T00.67740.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.67740.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.67740.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.67740.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6959+0.019+2.74%+1.48
+72026-03-020.6959+0.019+2.74%+1.48
+142026-03-090.7429+0.066+9.68%+5.23
+302026-03-300.9182+0.241+35.55%+19.19
+602026-04-270.8104+0.133+19.64%+10.60
+902026-05-250.8917+0.214+31.64%+17.08

One volatility unit for this series is 1.85%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9160.7802026-01-26: 0.8229 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.8268 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.8273 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.8292 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8336 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8459 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.9028 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.7988 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.7933 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.8229-0.006-0.75%-0.40
−142026-02-090.8268-0.002-0.28%-0.15
−72026-02-160.8273-0.002-0.22%-0.12
−32026-02-23same print as T00.82920.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.82920.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.82920.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.82920.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8336+0.004+0.53%+0.28
+72026-03-020.8336+0.004+0.53%+0.28
+142026-03-090.8459+0.017+2.02%+1.08
+302026-03-300.9028+0.074+8.88%+4.75
+602026-04-270.7988-0.030-3.67%-1.96
+902026-05-250.7933-0.036-4.33%-2.32

One volatility unit for this series is 1.87%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9260.8582026-01-26: 0.8644 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.8662 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.8666 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.8686 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8724 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.8823 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.9191 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.8968 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.8931 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.8644-0.004-0.49%-0.26
−142026-02-090.8662-0.002-0.28%-0.15
−72026-02-160.8666-0.002-0.23%-0.12
−32026-02-23same print as T00.86860.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.86860.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.86860.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.86860.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8724+0.004+0.44%+0.23
+72026-03-020.8724+0.004+0.44%+0.23
+142026-03-090.8823+0.014+1.57%+0.83
+302026-03-300.9191+0.050+5.81%+3.06
+602026-04-270.8968+0.028+3.24%+1.71
+902026-05-250.8931+0.024+2.82%+1.49

One volatility unit for this series is 1.90%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9071.0527.842026-01-29: 32.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 32.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 37.84 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 43.84 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 41.49 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 52.13 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 58.90 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 66.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 66.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 55.17 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2932.03-9.466-22.81%-3.77
−142026-02-1332.27-9.224-22.23%-3.68
−72026-02-2037.84-3.656-8.81%-1.46
−32026-02-2543.84+2.352+5.67%+0.94
−12026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0352.13+10.636+25.63%+4.24
+72026-03-0658.90+17.412+41.96%+6.94
+142026-03-1366.83+25.336+61.06%+10.10
+302026-03-3066.87+25.376+61.16%+10.12
+602026-04-2954.93+13.436+32.38%+5.36
+902026-05-2955.17+13.678+32.97%+5.45

One volatility unit for this series is 6.05%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9044.976.732026-01-29: 19.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 10.43 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 11.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 13.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 15.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 19.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 20.56 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 25.33 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 21.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 34.94 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 41.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2919.97+4.100+25.83%+0.93
−142026-02-1310.43-5.444-34.30%-1.23
−72026-02-2011.42-4.454-28.06%-1.00
−32026-02-2513.39-2.478-15.61%-0.56
−12026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0319.87+4.000+25.20%+0.90
+72026-03-0620.56+4.686+29.52%+1.06
+142026-03-1325.33+9.460+59.60%+2.13
+302026-03-3021.09+5.216+32.86%+1.18
+602026-04-2934.94+19.064+120.11%+4.30
+902026-05-2941.27+25.396+160.01%+5.73

One volatility unit for this series is 27.92%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9062.7117.062026-01-29: 23.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 21.47 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 27.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 33.05 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 30.66 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 41.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 48.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 56.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 56.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 58.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 43.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2923.42-7.240-23.62%-2.64
−142026-02-1321.47-9.182-29.95%-3.35
−72026-02-2027.04-3.614-11.79%-1.32
−32026-02-2533.05+2.394+7.81%+0.87
−12026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0341.29+10.636+34.69%+3.88
+72026-03-0648.07+17.412+56.80%+6.35
+142026-03-1356.03+25.378+82.78%+9.26
+302026-03-3056.07+25.418+82.91%+9.28
+602026-04-2958.29+27.632+90.14%+10.08
+902026-05-2943.07+12.418+40.51%+4.53

One volatility unit for this series is 8.94%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2026-01Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2026-02-28. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Observed0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only0–55.70 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2026-03) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed90.77 days of cover at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)-1.48% from the level at T0 = -0.65 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed121.9 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+70.89% from the level at T0 = +36.70 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed2,524,000 tonnes at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)-2.32% from the level at T0 = -0.50 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed1.129 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+45.09% from the level at T0 = +21.05 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed2.032 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+26.41% from the level at T0 = +15.78 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2026-02-21 to 2026-03-30 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Romania, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'romania'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's pre-tax petrol price moved +2.7%, which is 1.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.6959476635901904
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    2.3138629361787566
    t0_value
    0.6773590623631378
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.7442758589811462
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.481546690322078
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.018588601227052637
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.7442758589811462
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8523046738301305
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.481546690322078
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.6959476635901904
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    2.3138629361787566
    t0_value
    0.6773590623631378
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.7442758589811462
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.481546690322078
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.018588601227052637
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.7442758589811462
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8523046738301305
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.481546690322078

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 75b7460a08bd4d042ca6042cb72d3d7e63ac52851713c773ccfa3511cb4e2d48 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's pre-tax petrol price moved +35.6%, which is 19.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9181912862575421
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    14.070731389179846
    t0_value
    0.6773590623631378
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    35.55458799860157
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    19.194783936426095
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.24083222389440428
    change_pct_from_t0
    35.55458799860157
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8523046738301305
    change_in_volatility_units
    19.194783936426095
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9181912862575421
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    14.070731389179846
    t0_value
    0.6773590623631378
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    35.55458799860157
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    19.194783936426095
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.24083222389440428
    change_pct_from_t0
    35.55458799860157
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8523046738301305
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    19.194783936426095

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint fefba4c17177f31ed0a406ae91c11fdc588237c92e86c8373bb9a3146015d213 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's pre-tax petrol price moved +31.6%, which is 17.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8916991553391587
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    12.669276110018433
    t0_value
    0.6773590623631378
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    31.64349676348042
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.08331097499695
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21434009297602086
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.64349676348042
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8523046738301305
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.08331097499695
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8916991553391587
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    12.669276110018433
    t0_value
    0.6773590623631378
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    31.64349676348042
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.08331097499695
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21434009297602086
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.64349676348042
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.8523046738301305
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.08331097499695

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a2f936b50cbe10ae094d73651cd6c91049bb1cd692e7adb518a3651ad63e1c7b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +1.4%, which is 1.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.5683910075329566
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    2.572950076923604
    t0_value
    1.545998548137103
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.4484139990193399
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.9574160645031654
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.022392459395853548
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.4484139990193399
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.512836532329306
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.9574160645031654
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.5683910075329566
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    2.572950076923604
    t0_value
    1.545998548137103
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.4484139990193399
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.9574160645031654
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.022392459395853548
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.4484139990193399
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.512836532329306
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.9574160645031654

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 24447c4ec1f6f705cf9803b7da6fcdfc8da36376cf16340cc17875107a1f2885 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +18.8%, which is 12.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.837305790960452
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    9.774490367374685
    t0_value
    1.545998548137103
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    18.842659533824808
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    12.455185428932543
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.29130724282334897
    change_pct_from_t0
    18.842659533824808
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.512836532329306
    change_in_volatility_units
    12.455185428932543
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.837305790960452
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    9.774490367374685
    t0_value
    1.545998548137103
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    18.842659533824808
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    12.455185428932543
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.29130724282334897
    change_pct_from_t0
    18.842659533824808
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.512836532329306
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    12.455185428932543

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 55da66ca6e77bbdfcf67c77f02b5cb754e8aa5059d80e860a496e5c20e648ce7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +15.4%, which is 10.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.784825837448285
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    8.369076745848114
    t0_value
    1.545998548137103
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    15.44809272938607
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    10.211342996589808
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.23882728931118202
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.44809272938607
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.512836532329306
    change_in_volatility_units
    10.211342996589808
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.784825837448285
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    8.369076745848114
    t0_value
    1.545998548137103
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    15.44809272938607
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    10.211342996589808
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.23882728931118202
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.44809272938607
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.512836532329306
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    10.211342996589808

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0d9a32bd62a0ed2325b65f51e1ce73264c52a2cb7d4cb8db89cc1a9ca3568623 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's pre-tax diesel price moved +2.7%, which is 1.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7995561515255275
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    2.6077790776045044
    t0_value
    0.7783160855026285
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.7289768795132052
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2742067187035846
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.021240066022898962
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.7289768795132052
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1417065531484143
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2742067187035846
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7995561515255275
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    2.6077790776045044
    t0_value
    0.7783160855026285
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.7289768795132052
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2742067187035846
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.021240066022898962
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.7289768795132052
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1417065531484143
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2742067187035846

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 349cda79cc6a81ee990e0f3fcb7574064008abd45ae790edb4a761cf3e95997d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's pre-tax diesel price moved +45.1%, which is 21.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.1292445999543457
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    16.955140025053158
    t0_value
    0.7783160855026285
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    45.08817445615185
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    21.052452022369735
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.35092851445171713
    change_pct_from_t0
    45.08817445615185
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1417065531484143
    change_in_volatility_units
    21.052452022369735
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.1292445999543457
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    16.955140025053158
    t0_value
    0.7783160855026285
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    45.08817445615185
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    21.052452022369735
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.35092851445171713
    change_pct_from_t0
    45.08817445615185
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1417065531484143
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    21.052452022369735

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b12a1c92a646b7e64d6393d0b8bdc03fa7e6eae25a7d1fe0aec95bf7b54d5cb9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's pre-tax diesel price moved +31.9%, which is 14.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0265100792223076
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    12.484345680482921
    t0_value
    0.7783160855026285
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    31.88858592835043
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.889334807082994
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2481939937196791
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.88858592835043
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1417065531484143
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.889334807082994
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0265100792223076
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    12.484345680482921
    t0_value
    0.7783160855026285
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    31.88858592835043
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.889334807082994
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2481939937196791
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.88858592835043
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1417065531484143
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.889334807082994

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 5cef48a283ad1b543bd24648caa4372f843b75d85fc64654fc021e0858be6596 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +1.6%, which is 1.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.6331077369742626
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    2.905870144125282
    t0_value
    1.607498675665601
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.5930999941917843
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.9520687231372077
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.025609061308661696
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.5930999941917843
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6733035709253041
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.9520687231372077
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.6331077369742626
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    2.905870144125282
    t0_value
    1.607498675665601
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.5930999941917843
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    0.9520687231372077
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.025609061308661696
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.5930999941917843
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6733035709253041
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    0.9520687231372077

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d5e0c4b8c6a1addae5c51be8c625d8c69ab9fa73b4fbd1e87c01b9bb7c861fa4 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +26.4%, which is 15.8 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.0320307595731326
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    13.250639840436701
    t0_value
    1.607498675665601
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    26.409482653648222
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.782840073092233
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.4245320839075317
    change_pct_from_t0
    26.409482653648222
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6733035709253041
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.782840073092233
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.0320307595731326
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    13.250639840436701
    t0_value
    1.607498675665601
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    26.409482653648222
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.782840073092233
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.4245320839075317
    change_pct_from_t0
    26.409482653648222
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6733035709253041
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.782840073092233

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3927a853473276aa51e5fe67c9440d3326fc554f95360ceb94d793f6ea49f1da · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Romania's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +13.2%, which is 7.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.8197956187679931
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    7.7470125020339635
    t0_value
    1.607498675665601
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    13.20666363936434
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.892568849333964
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21229694310239222
    change_pct_from_t0
    13.20666363936434
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6733035709253041
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.892568849333964
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.8197956187679931
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    z_score
    7.7470125020339635
    t0_value
    1.607498675665601
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    13.20666363936434
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_RO_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.892568849333964
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.21229694310239222
    change_pct_from_t0
    13.20666363936434
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.6733035709253041
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.892568849333964

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e9ddc838d3da84c8639b584afed909bafca439a6d670bc8d6b8570cd7997f5e4 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. Over the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Romania's pre-tax petrol price by +14.3 c/L (range +9.2–+19.5); it actually moved +20.3 c/L, leaving +5.9 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 9.9 $/bbl.

    about RomaniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Romania
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.059380574456352725
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.20250682273409104
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.14312624827773832
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.09160151578294325
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.19465098077253346
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Romania
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.059380574456352725
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.20250682273409104
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.14312624827773832
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.09160151578294325
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.19465098077253346
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 0387e6db99d9a780fe245b1ab5950f73eb5c22fe45ac01669fb782c1b35e913d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. Over the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Romania's pre-tax petrol price by +16.1 c/L (range -3.3–+35.6); it actually moved +21.4 c/L, leaving +5.3 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 27.0 $/bbl.

    about RomaniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Romania
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.05300653032414343
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.21434009297602086
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.16133356265187743
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.03323057869161057
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.35589770399536635
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Romania
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.05300653032414343
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.21434009297602086
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.16133356265187743
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    -0.03323057869161057
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.35589770399536635
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint e15f164f63df9bbb72676c58143f97e66ce0b65cf04f6638d80b39a036b924a6 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Over the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Romania's pre-tax diesel price by +22.0 c/L (range +18.0–+26.1); it actually moved +26.2 c/L, leaving +4.2 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 28.8 $/bbl.

    about RomaniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Romania
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.041800656005036935
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.26202120264643103
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.2202205466413941
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.17992164385735235
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2605194494254361
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Romania
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.041800656005036935
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.26202120264643103
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.2202205466413941
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.17992164385735235
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2605194494254361
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 69331ccc917f39b661fe032c0e89059018570343144e4d59d24b57514740a846 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Over the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Romania's pre-tax diesel price by +37.7 c/L (range +27.0–+48.5); it actually moved +24.8 c/L, leaving -12.9 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 16.0 $/bbl.

    about RomaniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Romania
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.12917142462288056
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2481939937196791
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.37736541834255966
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.26995746562298617
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.4847733710621373
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Romania
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_RO_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    3
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.12917142462288056
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2481939937196791
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.37736541834255966
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2008-01-07
    pass_through_window_label
    FULL_SAMPLE
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.26995746562298617
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.4847733710621373
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 9ffe61ce340319a70ecea3cdbc9e3ff5ee8d4585e26a8eb35c94530df5496da8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (0%) for Romania in 2026-02.

    about RomaniaCalculatedLow
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    value_max_pct
    0
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint 751abf7557568c7305e8f35245e4ac646939bedf462b355e0d2567033650d8ee · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was significant (0%–39%) for Romania in 2026-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about RomaniaCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Romania
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    value_max_pct
    39.2857142857143
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Romania
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    value_max_pct
    39.2857142857143
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint be96689a8540bd306e2fc1cf168bff8ffb9d031d72b7a52c82f18594ba570582 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Available evidence does show a physical supply reduction: Romania's reported crude imports in 2026-02 were -27.9% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Romania
    change_pct
    -27.915194346289756
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    527000
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    731083.3333333334
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Romania
    change_pct
    -27.915194346289756
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    527000
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    731083.3333333334
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint 830ca57a9f3d8641feb7193611fb73f9a4822dc67f770b93387b23a398ab91d0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In 2026-02, Romania's oil stocks stood 1.3% above their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 92.1 days of cover (as published).

    about RomaniaCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_RO
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    days_of_cover
    92.131
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    6.600660066006601
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    2584000
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    2551250
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    1.2836844683978441
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    1.2836844683978441
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    1.3
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Romania
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_RO
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    days_of_cover
    92.131
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    6.600660066006601
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    2584000
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    2551250
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    1.2836844683978441
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint 52e44d1403b82562669d2e23fbc6b9bd325d067548dc2c723e9bf2b2d457c02f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Romania around Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was limited (0–0%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about RomaniaUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Romania
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    dependence_band
    limited
    dependence_range
    0–0%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Romania
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    RO
    country_name
    Romania
    country_slug
    romania
    dependence_band
    limited
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    0–0%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint ed778469337a423256ddc0ce85d6ed19662a7f3f11bc270c671fb5f1ae8c1d35 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +34.2%, which is 17.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +70.9%, which is 36.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +30.2%, which is 15.6 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Romania: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.