Fuel Origin

Events / Shipping disruption

Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)

Dates
2026-02-28 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf

What the sources said

Onset date as published by two independent agencies. IEA, 11 March 2026: "The conflict in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has impeded oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with export volumes of crude and refined products currently at less than 10% of pre-conflict levels." EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026: "The strait has been effectively closed to shipping traffic since military action began on February 28." EIA STEO March 2026 dates the same onset ("the onset of military action in the Middle East that began on February 28"). Reported transit volumes: EIA STEO August 2026 - "crude oil and petroleum liquids transported through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 4.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), down from an average of 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25 before the conflict began"; IEA commentary 22 June 2026 gives an average of 2.7 million b/d for March-May 2026 against "around 20 million barrels per day" before. Date disagreement recorded, not resolved: EIA Today in Energy of 15 July 2026 dates the US-Iran memorandum of understanding on resuming traffic to 17 June 2026, while the EIA press release of 7 July 2026 dates the same memorandum to 18 June 2026. No end date is recorded: EIA STEO September 2026 still describes flows through the strait as constrained and variable, and EIA STEO August 2026 records renewed attacks on tankers from 7 July 2026. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Verified
Retrieved 2026-09-23 07:22 UTCRevision 1
Source documents (7)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Greece, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

262 published readings, 24 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90130.763.52026-01-29: 71.00 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 69.96 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 72.75 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 70.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 71.32 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 83.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 95.74 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 103.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 121.9 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 124.2 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 92.88 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2971.00-0.320-0.45%-0.23
−142026-02-1369.96-1.360-1.91%-0.99
−72026-02-2072.75+1.430+2.01%+1.04
−32026-02-2570.69-0.630-0.88%-0.46
−12026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T071.320.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0383.28+11.960+16.77%+8.68
+72026-03-0695.74+24.420+34.24%+17.72
+142026-03-13103.2+31.910+44.74%+23.16
+302026-03-30121.9+50.560+70.89%+36.70
+602026-04-29124.2+52.840+74.09%+38.35
+902026-05-2992.88+21.560+30.23%+15.65

One volatility unit for this series is 1.93%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (756 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902,055,7281,799,0382026-01-01: 2,030,887 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 1,948,187 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 1,972,924 tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 1,823,879 tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 1,921,393 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-012,030,887+82,700+4.24%+0.25
−142026-02-01same print as T01,948,1870.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T01,948,1870.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T01,948,1870.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T01,948,1870.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T01,948,1870.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-011,972,924+24,737+1.27%+0.08
+32026-03-011,972,924+24,737+1.27%+0.08
+72026-03-011,972,924+24,737+1.27%+0.08
+142026-03-011,972,924+24,737+1.27%+0.08
+302026-03-011,972,924+24,737+1.27%+0.08
+602026-04-011,823,879-124,308-6.38%-0.38
+902026-05-011,921,393-26,794-1.38%-0.08

One volatility unit for this series is 16.66%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2850.7472026-01-26: 0.7992 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.8139 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.8176 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.8241 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8456 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.9209 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.164 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.193 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.233 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.7992-0.025-3.01%-1.17
−142026-02-090.8139-0.010-1.23%-0.48
−72026-02-160.8176-0.006-0.79%-0.31
−32026-02-23same print as T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8456+0.022+2.61%+1.01
+72026-03-020.8456+0.022+2.61%+1.01
+142026-03-090.9209+0.097+11.75%+4.56
+302026-03-301.164+0.340+41.28%+16.01
+602026-04-271.193+0.369+44.72%+17.34
+902026-05-251.233+0.409+49.64%+19.25

One volatility unit for this series is 2.58%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9410.6422026-01-26: 0.6709 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6801 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6820 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6863 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.6944 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7409 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.8825 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.8933 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.9122 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.6709-0.015-2.23%-1.53
−142026-02-090.6801-0.006-0.90%-0.62
−72026-02-160.6820-0.004-0.62%-0.43
−32026-02-23same print as T00.68630.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.68630.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.68630.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.68630.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.6944+0.008+1.18%+0.81
+72026-03-020.6944+0.008+1.18%+0.81
+142026-03-090.7409+0.055+7.96%+5.46
+302026-03-300.8825+0.196+28.60%+19.61
+602026-04-270.8933+0.207+30.17%+20.69
+902026-05-250.9122+0.226+32.92%+22.57

One volatility unit for this series is 1.46%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2031.1422026-01-29: 1.197 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 1.186 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 1.177 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 1.178 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 1.181 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 1.161 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 1.156 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 1.148 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.148 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 1.171 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 1.164 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-291.197+0.016+1.38%+3.12
−142026-02-131.186+0.006+0.48%+1.09
−72026-02-201.177-0.004-0.32%-0.73
−32026-02-251.178-0.002-0.18%-0.40
−12026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T01.1810.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-031.161-0.020-1.69%-3.81
+72026-03-061.156-0.024-2.07%-4.67
+142026-03-131.148-0.033-2.79%-6.29
+302026-03-301.148-0.032-2.72%-6.14
+602026-04-291.171-0.010-0.84%-1.89
+902026-05-291.164-0.016-1.36%-3.08

One volatility unit for this series is 0.44%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (765 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9056.4010.562026-01-01: 44.29 to 51.97 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-02-01: 33.60 to 41.02 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-03-01: 29.29 to 48.80 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-04-01: 15.14 to 28.73 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-05-01: 15.00 to 18.78 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-0144.29–51.97not publishednot publishednot published
−142026-02-0133.60–41.02not publishednot publishednot published
−72026-02-0133.60–41.02not publishednot publishednot published
−32026-02-0133.60–41.02not publishednot publishednot published
−12026-02-0133.60–41.02not publishednot publishednot published
T02026-02-0133.60–41.02not publishednot publishednot published
+12026-03-0129.29–48.80not publishednot publishednot published
+32026-03-0129.29–48.80not publishednot publishednot published
+72026-03-0129.29–48.80not publishednot publishednot published
+142026-03-0129.29–48.80not publishednot publishednot published
+302026-03-0129.29–48.80not publishednot publishednot published
+602026-04-0115.14–28.73not publishednot publishednot published
+902026-05-0115.00–18.78not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9041.050.002026-01-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −302026-04-01: 0 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +602026-02-01: 0 to 36.65 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-03-01: 0 to 29.22 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2026-05-01: 0 to 25.95 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-010not publishednot publishednot published
−142026-02-010–36.65not publishednot publishednot published
−72026-02-010–36.65not publishednot publishednot published
−32026-02-010–36.65not publishednot publishednot published
−12026-02-010–36.65not publishednot publishednot published
T02026-02-010–36.65not publishednot publishednot published
+12026-03-010–29.22not publishednot publishednot published
+32026-03-010–29.22not publishednot publishednot published
+72026-03-010–29.22not publishednot publishednot published
+142026-03-010–29.22not publishednot publishednot published
+302026-03-010–29.22not publishednot publishednot published
+602026-04-010not publishednot publishednot published
+902026-05-010–25.95not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90107.093.72026-01-01: 95.33 days of cover, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 102.2 days of cover, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 105.7 days of cover, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 99.08 days of cover, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 95.03 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-0195.33-6.880-6.73%-0.81
−142026-02-01same print as T0102.20.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T0102.20.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T0102.20.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T0102.20.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T0102.20.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-01105.7+3.521+3.44%+0.42
+32026-03-01105.7+3.521+3.44%+0.42
+72026-03-01105.7+3.521+3.44%+0.42
+142026-03-01105.7+3.521+3.44%+0.42
+302026-03-01105.7+3.521+3.44%+0.42
+602026-04-0199.08-3.131-3.06%-0.37
+902026-05-0195.03-7.184-7.03%-0.85

One volatility unit for this series is 8.29%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

One volatility unit for this series is 3.66%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7130.3352026-01-26: 0.3714 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.3742 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.3817 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.3806 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.4615 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.5233 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.6763 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.6445 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.5248 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.3714-0.009-2.40%-0.66
−142026-02-090.3742-0.006-1.68%-0.46
−72026-02-160.3817+0.001+0.29%+0.08
−32026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.38060.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+72026-03-020.4615+0.081+21.26%+5.80
+142026-03-090.5233+0.143+37.50%+10.24
+302026-03-300.6763+0.296+77.69%+21.21
+602026-04-270.6445+0.264+69.35%+18.93
+902026-05-250.5248+0.144+37.88%+10.34

One volatility unit for this series is 3.66%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+904,597,9753,888,0372026-01-01: 3,956,741 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2026-02-01, 4,277,540 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T02026-03-01: 4,529,271 tonnes, used for offsets +1, +3, +7, +14, +302026-04-01: 4,296,148 tonnes, used for offsets +602026-05-01: 4,288,445 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-013,956,741-320,799-7.50%-1.50
−142026-02-01same print as T04,277,5400.0000.00%0.00
−72026-02-01same print as T04,277,5400.0000.00%0.00
−32026-02-01same print as T04,277,5400.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-01same print as T04,277,5400.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-01same print as T04,277,5400.0000.00%0.00
+12026-03-014,529,271+251,731+5.88%+1.18
+32026-03-014,529,271+251,731+5.88%+1.18
+72026-03-014,529,271+251,731+5.88%+1.18
+142026-03-014,529,271+251,731+5.88%+1.18
+302026-03-014,529,271+251,731+5.88%+1.18
+602026-04-014,296,148+18,608+0.44%+0.09
+902026-05-014,288,445+10,905+0.25%+0.05

One volatility unit for this series is 5.01%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.157-0.2312026-01-26: 0.0095 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.0069 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.0049 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: -0.0006 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.1177 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.1195 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: -0.1016 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: -0.1938 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.0095+0.010not publishednot published
−142026-02-090.0069+0.007not publishednot published
−72026-02-160.0049+0.005not publishednot published
−32026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-02-0.0006-0.001not publishednot published
+72026-03-02-0.0006-0.001not publishednot published
+142026-03-090.1177+0.118not publishednot published
+302026-03-300.1195+0.119not publishednot published
+602026-04-27-0.1016-0.102not publishednot published
+902026-05-25-0.1938-0.194not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.107-0.0132026-01-26: 0.0024 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: -0.0011 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.0010 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.0072 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.0373 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.0521 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.0381 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.0951 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.0024+0.002not publishednot published
−142026-02-09-0.0011-0.001not publishednot published
−72026-02-160.0010+0.001not publishednot published
−32026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12026-02-23same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32026-03-020.0072+0.007not publishednot published
+72026-03-020.0072+0.007not publishednot published
+142026-03-090.0373+0.037not publishednot published
+302026-03-300.0521+0.052not publishednot published
+602026-04-270.0381+0.038not publishednot published
+902026-05-250.0951+0.095not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902.1891.4582026-01-26: 1.529 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 1.544 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 1.546 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.548 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.574 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.814 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 2.118 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.879 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.815 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-261.529-0.019-1.23%-1.15
−142026-02-091.544-0.004-0.26%-0.24
−72026-02-161.546-0.002-0.13%-0.12
−32026-02-23same print as T01.5480.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T01.5480.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T01.5480.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T01.5480.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.574+0.026+1.68%+1.57
+72026-03-021.574+0.026+1.68%+1.57
+142026-03-091.814+0.266+17.18%+16.10
+302026-03-302.118+0.570+36.82%+34.50
+602026-04-271.879+0.331+21.38%+20.03
+902026-05-251.815+0.267+17.25%+16.16

One volatility unit for this series is 1.07%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902.1861.6722026-01-26: 1.722 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 1.729 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 1.734 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.738 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.757 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.852 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 2.046 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 2.042 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 2.136 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-261.722-0.016-0.92%-1.04
−142026-02-091.729-0.009-0.52%-0.58
−72026-02-161.734-0.004-0.23%-0.26
−32026-02-23same print as T01.7380.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T01.7380.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T01.7380.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T01.7380.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.757+0.019+1.09%+1.23
+72026-03-021.757+0.019+1.09%+1.23
+142026-03-091.852+0.114+6.56%+7.37
+302026-03-302.046+0.308+17.72%+19.92
+602026-04-272.042+0.304+17.49%+19.67
+902026-05-252.136+0.398+22.90%+25.75

One volatility unit for this series is 0.89%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.3410.7522026-01-26: 0.8087 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.8208 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.8224 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.8241 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.8450 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.039 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.284 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.091 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.039 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.8087-0.015-1.86%-1.17
−142026-02-090.8208-0.003-0.39%-0.25
−72026-02-160.8224-0.002-0.20%-0.12
−32026-02-23same print as T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.82410.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.8450+0.021+2.54%+1.61
+72026-03-020.8450+0.021+2.54%+1.61
+142026-03-091.039+0.215+26.03%+16.43
+302026-03-301.284+0.460+55.78%+35.21
+602026-04-271.091+0.267+32.39%+20.45
+902026-05-251.039+0.215+26.13%+16.49

One volatility unit for this series is 1.58%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.0470.6332026-01-26: 0.6734 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.6790 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.6830 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.6863 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7016 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7782 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.9347 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.9314 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.007 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.6734-0.013-1.88%-1.11
−142026-02-090.6790-0.007-1.06%-0.62
−72026-02-160.6830-0.003-0.47%-0.28
−32026-02-23same print as T00.68630.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.68630.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.68630.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.68630.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7016+0.015+2.23%+1.31
+72026-03-020.7016+0.015+2.23%+1.31
+142026-03-090.7782+0.092+13.40%+7.89
+302026-03-300.9347+0.248+36.19%+21.31
+602026-04-270.9314+0.245+35.72%+21.03
+902026-05-251.007+0.321+46.77%+27.53

One volatility unit for this series is 1.70%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.8480.7072026-01-26: 0.7203 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 0.7232 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 0.7236 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 0.7239 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 0.7290 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 0.7754 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 0.8343 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 0.7880 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 0.7756 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-260.7203-0.004-0.51%-1.12
−142026-02-090.7232-0.001-0.11%-0.24
−72026-02-160.7236-0.000-0.05%-0.12
−32026-02-23same print as T00.72390.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T00.72390.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T00.72390.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T00.72390.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-020.7290+0.005+0.70%+1.53
+72026-03-020.7290+0.005+0.70%+1.53
+142026-03-090.7754+0.051+7.11%+15.68
+302026-03-300.8343+0.110+15.24%+33.59
+602026-04-270.7880+0.064+8.85%+19.51
+902026-05-250.7756+0.052+7.14%+15.74

One volatility unit for this series is 0.45%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedHigh
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1381.0392026-01-26: 1.049 € per litre, used for offsets −302026-02-09: 1.050 € per litre, used for offsets −142026-02-16: 1.051 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2026-02-23, 1.052 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +12026-03-02: 1.055 € per litre, used for offsets +3, +72026-03-09: 1.074 € per litre, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 1.111 € per litre, used for offsets +302026-04-27: 1.111 € per litre, used for offsets +602026-05-25: 1.129 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-261.049-0.003-0.29%-0.98
−142026-02-091.050-0.002-0.17%-0.55
−72026-02-161.051-0.001-0.07%-0.25
−32026-02-23same print as T01.0520.0000.00%0.00
−12026-02-23same print as T01.0520.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-23same print as T01.0520.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-23same print as T01.0520.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-021.055+0.004+0.35%+1.17
+72026-03-021.055+0.004+0.35%+1.17
+142026-03-091.074+0.022+2.10%+7.02
+302026-03-301.111+0.060+5.67%+18.96
+602026-04-271.111+0.059+5.59%+18.71
+902026-05-251.129+0.077+7.32%+24.50

One volatility unit for this series is 0.30%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (155 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9071.0527.842026-01-29: 32.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 32.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 37.84 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 43.84 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 41.49 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 52.13 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 58.90 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 66.83 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 66.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 54.93 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 55.17 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2932.03-9.466-22.81%-3.77
−142026-02-1332.27-9.224-22.23%-3.68
−72026-02-2037.84-3.656-8.81%-1.46
−32026-02-2543.84+2.352+5.67%+0.94
−12026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T041.490.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0352.13+10.636+25.63%+4.24
+72026-03-0658.90+17.412+41.96%+6.94
+142026-03-1366.83+25.336+61.06%+10.10
+302026-03-3066.87+25.376+61.16%+10.12
+602026-04-2954.93+13.436+32.38%+5.36
+902026-05-2955.17+13.678+32.97%+5.45

One volatility unit for this series is 6.05%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9044.976.732026-01-29: 19.97 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 10.43 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 11.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 13.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 15.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 19.87 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 20.56 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 25.33 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 21.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 34.94 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 41.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2919.97+4.100+25.83%+0.93
−142026-02-1310.43-5.444-34.30%-1.23
−72026-02-2011.42-4.454-28.06%-1.00
−32026-02-2513.39-2.478-15.61%-0.56
−12026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T015.870.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0319.87+4.000+25.20%+0.90
+72026-03-0620.56+4.686+29.52%+1.06
+142026-03-1325.33+9.460+59.60%+2.13
+302026-03-3021.09+5.216+32.86%+1.18
+602026-04-2934.94+19.064+120.11%+4.30
+902026-05-2941.27+25.396+160.01%+5.73

One volatility unit for this series is 27.92%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9062.7117.062026-01-29: 23.42 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302026-02-13: 21.47 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142026-02-20: 27.04 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72026-02-25: 33.05 $ per barrel, used for offsets −3same print as T0 — 2026-02-27, 30.66 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1, T0, +12026-03-03: 41.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets +32026-03-06: 48.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72026-03-13: 56.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142026-03-30: 56.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302026-04-29: 58.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602026-05-29: 43.07 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302026-01-2923.42-7.240-23.62%-2.64
−142026-02-1321.47-9.182-29.95%-3.35
−72026-02-2027.04-3.614-11.79%-1.32
−32026-02-2533.05+2.394+7.81%+0.87
−12026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
T02026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+12026-02-27same print as T030.660.0000.00%0.00
+32026-03-0341.29+10.636+34.69%+3.88
+72026-03-0648.07+17.412+56.80%+6.35
+142026-03-1356.03+25.378+82.78%+9.26
+302026-03-3056.07+25.418+82.91%+9.28
+602026-04-2958.29+27.632+90.14%+10.08
+902026-05-2943.07+12.418+40.51%+4.53

One volatility unit for this series is 8.94%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (733 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2026-01Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2026-02-28. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only29.29–48.80 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2026-03) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only0–29.22 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2026-03) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed105.7 days of cover at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)+3.44% from the level at T0 = +0.42 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed121.9 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+70.89% from the level at T0 = +36.70 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed4,529,271 tonnes at +30 d (published 2026-03-01)+5.88% from the level at T0 = +1.18 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed1.284 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+55.78% from the level at T0 = +35.21 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed2.118 € per litre at +30 d (published 2026-03-30)+36.82% from the level at T0 = +34.50 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2026-02-21 to 2026-03-30 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Greece, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/hormuz-2026/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'hormuz-2026' and country 'greece'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's pre-tax petrol price moved +2.2%, which is 1.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7015954838709678
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    1.1802399073958523
    t0_value
    0.6862729032258064
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.232724120847275
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.3143411309834614
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.015322580645161454
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.232724120847275
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.698740203904773
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.3143411309834614
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.7015954838709678
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    1.1802399073958523
    t0_value
    0.6862729032258064
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.232724120847275
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.3143411309834614
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.015322580645161454
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.232724120847275
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.698740203904773
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.3143411309834614

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 0cc7ac3c2402ac4d13ffe735b8ef3d41acb72a59cb9e3153f44d1783dd4b5c8d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's pre-tax petrol price moved +36.2%, which is 21.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9346599999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    14.585497545546872
    t0_value
    0.6862729032258064
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    36.19363311689228
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    21.30616149173167
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.24838709677419357
    change_pct_from_t0
    36.19363311689228
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.698740203904773
    change_in_volatility_units
    21.30616149173167
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.9346599999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    14.585497545546872
    t0_value
    0.6862729032258064
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    36.19363311689228
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    21.30616149173167
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.24838709677419357
    change_pct_from_t0
    36.19363311689228
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.698740203904773
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    21.30616149173167

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ef8fabd8ad90a17510ce52a89cbab0883386f4f0f1d31e21d166ad5b97f7dc36 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's pre-tax petrol price moved +46.8%, which is 27.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0072406451612903
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    18.760145252929547
    t0_value
    0.6862729032258064
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    46.76969474195821
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    27.531987901653267
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.32096774193548394
    change_pct_from_t0
    46.76969474195821
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.698740203904773
    change_in_volatility_units
    27.531987901653267
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0072406451612903
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    18.760145252929547
    t0_value
    0.6862729032258064
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    46.76969474195821
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    27.531987901653267
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.32096774193548394
    change_pct_from_t0
    46.76969474195821
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.698740203904773
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    27.531987901653267

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b601a1ca17b791dc23117af11f6590e76310b8d581bea8bbfa009ce88fb6f7c9 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +1.1%, which is 1.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.7570000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    1.1802399073958496
    t0_value
    1.738
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.0932105868814803
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2291124560024265
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.019000000000000128
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.0932105868814803
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8894308910000357
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2291124560024265
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.7570000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    1.1802399073958496
    t0_value
    1.738
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.0932105868814803
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.2291124560024265
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.019000000000000128
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.0932105868814803
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8894308910000357
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.2291124560024265

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3e9961a1d8ee7e0ce82a139d0480cb84c0c4d5a0b547f55fe859b62944acdaee · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +17.7%, which is 19.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.0460000000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    14.585497545546884
    t0_value
    1.738
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    17.72151898734179
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    19.92455981309185
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3080000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    17.72151898734179
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8894308910000357
    change_in_volatility_units
    19.92455981309185
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.0460000000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    14.585497545546884
    t0_value
    1.738
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    17.72151898734179
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    19.92455981309185
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3080000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    17.72151898734179
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8894308910000357
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    19.92455981309185

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 9dca48b5d64ec5137d2760992254e150a03ed7c2119f18b286614306aea70889 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +22.9%, which is 25.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.136
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    18.76014525292955
    t0_value
    1.738
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    22.899884925201388
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    25.746671446787502
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.39800000000000013
    change_pct_from_t0
    22.899884925201388
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8894308910000357
    change_in_volatility_units
    25.746671446787502
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.136
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    18.76014525292955
    t0_value
    1.738
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    22.899884925201388
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    25.746671446787502
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.39800000000000013
    change_pct_from_t0
    22.899884925201388
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.8894308910000357
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    25.746671446787502

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint c99da52a7945d5435d3a60b6171fb457658442895db87f38b2cb6ce536f4b7d2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's pre-tax diesel price moved +2.5%, which is 1.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8450248387096774
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    1.1863217033128732
    t0_value
    0.8240570967741937
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.5444525649451704
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.6061679039888994
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.020967741935483675
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.5444525649451704
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5841759498655477
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.6061679039888994
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    0.8450248387096774
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    1.1863217033128732
    t0_value
    0.8240570967741937
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.5444525649451704
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.6061679039888994
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.020967741935483675
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.5444525649451704
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5841759498655477
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.6061679039888994

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint f2aedbf0bdc8d75ad1a5baf44770e0b1272d6b123b0e6e777d2a08d04313b027 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's pre-tax diesel price moved +55.8%, which is 35.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.2837345161290323
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    20.292344925088667
    t0_value
    0.8240570967741937
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    55.78222930841386
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    35.21214251052619
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.45967741935483863
    change_pct_from_t0
    55.78222930841386
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5841759498655477
    change_in_volatility_units
    35.21214251052619
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.2837345161290323
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    20.292344925088667
    t0_value
    0.8240570967741937
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    55.78222930841386
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    35.21214251052619
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.45967741935483863
    change_pct_from_t0
    55.78222930841386
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5841759498655477
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    35.21214251052619

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 26c05287ad2681df2e361d9b001f7afef46c8edf838f058f4ad28827b29b4edd · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's pre-tax diesel price moved +26.1%, which is 16.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0393796774193549
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    9.650570961489283
    t0_value
    0.8240570967741937
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    26.129570570783326
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    16.494108860193844
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2153225806451612
    change_pct_from_t0
    26.129570570783326
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5841759498655477
    change_in_volatility_units
    16.494108860193844
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.0393796774193549
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    9.650570961489283
    t0_value
    0.8240570967741937
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    26.129570570783326
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    16.494108860193844
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2153225806451612
    change_pct_from_t0
    26.129570570783326
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5841759498655477
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    16.494108860193844

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 962eaa8e9563b19e0048835b16d9050e1741520bfbf2a6a52171178036f5588e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +1.7%, which is 1.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.574
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    1.1863217033128837
    t0_value
    1.548
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.679586563307495
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.5736956668870277
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.026000000000000023
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.679586563307495
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0672880396436073
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.5736956668870277
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.574
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    1.1863217033128837
    t0_value
    1.548
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.679586563307495
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-02
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.5736956668870277
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.026000000000000023
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.679586563307495
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0672880396436073
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.5736956668870277

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 842b3c431457fcca786ba2ef7a5f4ae0dd2c009da98c12562725f484b048418d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +36.8%, which is 34.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.118
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    20.292344925088724
    t0_value
    1.548
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    36.82170542635658
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    34.50025115867711
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.5699999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    36.82170542635658
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0672880396436073
    change_in_volatility_units
    34.50025115867711
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    2.118
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    20.292344925088724
    t0_value
    1.548
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    36.82170542635658
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    34.50025115867711
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.5699999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    36.82170542635658
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0672880396436073
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    34.50025115867711

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d0c6d1db3372102e064ab203dd57232e232642ab93a7cb42b1ab18996e6efe5d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), Greece's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +17.2%, which is 16.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.815
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    9.650570961489311
    t0_value
    1.548
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    17.24806201550387
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    16.16064396380138
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2669999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    17.24806201550387
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0672880396436073
    change_in_volatility_units
    16.16064396380138
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    1.815
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    9.650570961489311
    t0_value
    1.548
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    17.24806201550387
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    16.16064396380138
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2669999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    17.24806201550387
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    4
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0672880396436073
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    16.16064396380138

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint e4ef76509a1d175536f27b3bb4f0cfc5be9d7b2166aad36e8b55984b164c3dc5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. Over the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax petrol price by +17.1 c/L (range +12.4–+21.8); it actually moved +24.1 c/L, leaving +7.0 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 9.9 $/bbl.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.06996712725991466
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2411290322580646
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.17116190499814993
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1244579701632787
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.21786583983302238
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.06996712725991466
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2411290322580646
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.17116190499814993
    proxy_volatility_units
    2.8999750350600633
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    9.9
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1244579701632787
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.21786583983302238
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint b2292c5ed118b7b5641124793cb8458f8ae319c0ae0ed6627c7ba99dc977dd7b · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. Over the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax petrol price by +22.6 c/L (range +8.6–+36.6); it actually moved +32.1 c/L, leaving +9.5 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US gasoline crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 27.0 $/bbl.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.09507997659536671
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.32096774193548394
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.22588776534011723
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.08573272130626364
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.36604280937397177
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.09507997659536671
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.32096774193548394
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.22588776534011723
    proxy_volatility_units
    7.918982333112501
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.034
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.08573272130626364
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.36604280937397177
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    27.922644296421584

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint c237550409eb3a1cc6d7d4271578d65403f278afb59b44c98277d212ddf97cff · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Over the 4 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax diesel price by +28.9 c/L (range +18.1–+39.7); it actually moved +40.9 c/L, leaving +12.0 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 28.8 $/bbl.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.11999397068569884
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.40887096774193543
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.2888769970562366
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.18061188637196235
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.39714210774051373
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-03-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-03-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.11999397068569884
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.40887096774193543
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.2888769970562366
    proxy_volatility_units
    10.98407307729496
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    28.757999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.18061188637196235
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.39714210774051373
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 6e9e533d28297c318ae6df0a6188c79959ab03700ff49f15e17b230c819f65ef · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Over the 13 weeks after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax diesel price by +40.9 c/L (range +11.0–+70.9); it actually moved +21.5 c/L, leaving -19.4 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 16.0 $/bbl.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.19375384243098093
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2153225806451612
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.4090764230761421
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1095846044445869
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.7085682417077036
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2026-05-22
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2026-02-23
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-05-25
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.19375384243098093
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2026-02-23
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.2153225806451612
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.4090764230761421
    proxy_volatility_units
    6.106591569642946
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    15.988
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.1095846044445869
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.7085682417077036
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    6.045708372099533

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 48171557f9d775f1ffd292e366c9151d00cafa86a951a04be55f4cceb77dc1ab · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was significant (34%–41%) for Greece in 2026-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    41.0198271521163
    value_min_pct
    33.5994847517204
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    41.0198271521163
    value_min_pct
    33.5994847517204
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint f87a089a1f617bd8f7d11bf751c54f6784cd27f9becfbb32a0ba81ad6eedd6ed · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was significant (0%–37%) for Greece in 2026-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    36.6486799969742
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2026-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    36.6486799969742
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint c309f21384182ebc68453e271f9e5f327bd6ab2bcc4f1505e79e9b26ee8673ce · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Available evidence does not show a physical supply reduction: Greece's reported crude imports in 2026-02 were +10.4% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Greece
    change_pct
    10.407109807409658
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    1948187
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    1764548.5
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    country
    Greece
    change_pct
    10.407109807409658
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    1948187
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    1764548.5
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.no_reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint 128016eba684dfaee1e6e9d4b3d54dbdbe62084f94d1cbae45ebaed33ffb7d5e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In 2026-02, Greece's oil stocks stood 3.4% above their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 102.2 days of cover (as published).

    about GreeceCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_GR
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    days_of_cover
    102.212
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    8.107657286640697
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    4277540
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    4134947.25
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    3.4484780912259523
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    3.4484780912259523
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    3.4
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2026-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_GR
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    days_of_cover
    102.212
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    8.107657286640697
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2026-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    4277540
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    27
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    4134947.25
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    3.4484780912259523
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint 592086032a39c39c2ae33cab7bc458d20395a8f99061df2978788abe127fb25f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Greece around Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was significant (34–41%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about GreeceUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Greece
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    dependence_band
    significant
    dependence_range
    34–41%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    country
    Greece
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    dependence_band
    significant
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    34–41%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 1f8d66591bab12a716633befd8014e4d75950c43c0e26dad7682bf26b5135bbe · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 7 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +34.2%, which is 17.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    95.74
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    11.429511613277612
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    34.24004486819967
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-06
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    17.72499106459417
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    24.42
    change_pct_from_t0
    34.24004486819967
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    17.72499106459417

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 4ea435198e2ad85179076b27dc38a89512f04178c41f341853cd2dbe9edcddb3 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. In the 30 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +70.9%, which is 36.7 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    121.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    20.908399390463835
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    70.89175546831184
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-03-30
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    36.69842539827523
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    50.56
    change_pct_from_t0
    70.89175546831184
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    36.69842539827523

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 29bbc9c1226a318de551eedf873f282db221eb9ec716b009f1161b898b5d397c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. In the 90 days after Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026), the Brent crude benchmark moved +30.2%, which is 15.6 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedHigh
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    value
    92.88
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    10.392418306362824
    t0_value
    71.32
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    30.22994952327538
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2026-05-29
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.64909121018224
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.560000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    30.22994952327538
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.9317383429656259
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.64909121018224

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint da6e291650428ea4feda72840b110dea4b3e2942f69e01f932de816d3716527d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint cbf9fd2371d9caad14a75cea5013e1be30bd2eb2033908f832c88c88067f87e7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 8af490b1ea34e00f40494098d666c15e05cfca35931abd7a50a334f8e61f0d3e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint cb537d4c961760559b281257dfa2ff078da30874030ebc0d45438e5b240ce371 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)
    event_slug
    hormuz-2026
    event_type
    HORMUZ_DISRUPTION
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint c3272c131b1b047dc850145474462c0a9daea21ea6429e3edc6c8e07abc867e8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Greece: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.