Fuel Origin

Events / War

Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)

Dates
2022-02-24 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
Ukraine

What the sources said

European Council, special meeting of 24 February 2022, document EUCO 18/22: "European Council conclusions on Russia's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine"; "The European Council condemns in the strongest possible terms the Russian Federation's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine." The conclusions are dated and headed 24 February 2022, which is the date recorded here. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-23 07:22 UTCRevision 1
Source documents (2)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Greece, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

260 published readings, 26 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90126.785.52022-01-25: 89.49 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-02-10: 96.37 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-02-17: 95.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-02-21: 98.95 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-02-23: 99.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-02-24, 101.3 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-02-25: 98.56 $ per barrel, used for offsets +1, +32022-03-03: 115.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-03-10: 114.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-03-25: 122.7 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 99.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-05-25: 116.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-2589.49-11.800-11.65%-2.69
−142022-02-1096.37-4.920-4.86%-1.12
−72022-02-1795.28-6.010-5.93%-1.37
−32022-02-2198.95-2.340-2.31%-0.53
−12022-02-2399.29-2.000-1.97%-0.46
T02022-02-24same print as T0101.30.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-2598.56-2.730-2.70%-0.62
+32022-02-2598.56-2.730-2.70%-0.62
+72022-03-03115.4+14.070+13.89%+3.20
+142022-03-10114.5+13.250+13.08%+3.02
+302022-03-25122.7+21.380+21.11%+4.87
+602022-04-2599.27-2.020-1.99%-0.46
+902022-05-25116.4+15.120+14.93%+3.44

One volatility unit for this series is 4.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (767 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902,357,302999,1842022-01-01: 2,071,670 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2022-02-01, 1,791,235 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-03-01: 1,130,615 tonnes, used for offsets +7, +14, +302022-04-01: 1,951,432 tonnes, used for offsets +602022-05-01: 2,225,871 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-012,071,670+280,435+15.66%+0.77
−142022-02-01same print as T01,791,2350.0000.00%0.00
−72022-02-01same print as T01,791,2350.0000.00%0.00
−32022-02-01same print as T01,791,2350.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-01same print as T01,791,2350.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-01same print as T01,791,2350.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-01same print as T01,791,2350.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-01same print as T01,791,2350.0000.00%0.00
+72022-03-011,130,615-660,620-36.88%-1.82
+142022-03-011,130,615-660,620-36.88%-1.82
+302022-03-011,130,615-660,620-36.88%-1.82
+602022-04-011,951,432+160,197+8.94%+0.44
+902022-05-012,225,871+434,636+24.26%+1.20

One volatility unit for this series is 20.26%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2360.7632022-01-24: 0.8088 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.8471 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.8655 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.8829 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.9192 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 1.008 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 1.075 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 1.093 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 1.190 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.8088-0.074-8.40%-1.20
−142022-02-070.8471-0.036-4.05%-0.58
−72022-02-140.8655-0.017-1.98%-0.28
−32022-02-21same print as T00.88290.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.88290.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.88290.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.88290.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.88290.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.9192+0.036+4.11%+0.59
+142022-03-071.008+0.125+14.19%+2.03
+302022-03-211.075+0.192+21.72%+3.10
+602022-04-251.093+0.210+23.82%+3.40
+902022-05-231.190+0.307+34.77%+4.96

One volatility unit for this series is 7.01%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9950.7352022-01-24: 0.7605 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.7828 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.7938 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.8040 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.8209 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 0.8768 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 0.9076 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 0.9142 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 0.9698 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.7605-0.043-5.41%-2.85
−142022-02-070.7828-0.021-2.64%-1.39
−72022-02-140.7938-0.010-1.27%-0.67
−32022-02-21same print as T00.80400.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.80400.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.80400.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.80400.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.80400.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.8209+0.017+2.10%+1.11
+142022-03-070.8768+0.073+9.05%+4.77
+302022-03-210.9076+0.104+12.89%+6.80
+602022-04-250.9142+0.110+13.71%+7.23
+902022-05-230.9698+0.166+20.63%+10.88

One volatility unit for this series is 1.90%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1531.0562022-01-25: 1.127 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302022-02-10: 1.144 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142022-02-17: 1.137 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72022-02-21: 1.134 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −32022-02-23: 1.134 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-02-24, 1.116 US dollars per euro, used for offsets T02022-02-25: 1.122 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +1, +32022-03-03: 1.108 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72022-03-10: 1.108 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142022-03-25: 1.100 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 1.075 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602022-05-25: 1.066 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-251.127+0.011+0.94%+2.37
−142022-02-101.144+0.028+2.47%+6.23
−72022-02-171.137+0.021+1.85%+4.67
−32022-02-211.134+0.017+1.57%+3.95
−12022-02-231.134+0.018+1.62%+4.09
T02022-02-24same print as T01.1160.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-251.122+0.005+0.47%+1.20
+32022-02-251.122+0.005+0.47%+1.20
+72022-03-031.108-0.009-0.78%-1.96
+142022-03-101.108-0.008-0.71%-1.78
+302022-03-251.100-0.016-1.44%-3.64
+602022-04-251.075-0.042-3.74%-9.42
+902022-05-251.066-0.051-4.54%-11.45

One volatility unit for this series is 0.40%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9068.5543.002022-01-01: 46.12 to 54.42 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-02-01: 48.83 to 61.73 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-03-01: 58.24 to 66.08 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-04-01: 45.56 to 61.12 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-05-01: 45.47 to 61.42 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-0146.12–54.42not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-02-0148.83–61.73not publishednot publishednot published
−72022-02-0148.83–61.73not publishednot publishednot published
−32022-02-0148.83–61.73not publishednot publishednot published
−12022-02-0148.83–61.73not publishednot publishednot published
T02022-02-0148.83–61.73not publishednot publishednot published
+12022-02-0148.83–61.73not publishednot publishednot published
+32022-02-0148.83–61.73not publishednot publishednot published
+72022-03-0158.24–66.08not publishednot publishednot published
+142022-03-0158.24–66.08not publishednot publishednot published
+302022-03-0158.24–66.08not publishednot publishednot published
+602022-04-0145.56–61.12not publishednot publishednot published
+902022-05-0145.47–61.42not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9025.150.002022-01-01: 0 to 13.41 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-02-01: 0 to 9.990 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-03-01: 0 to 22.46 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-04-01: 0 to 21.16 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-05-01: 0 to 12.04 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-010–13.41not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-02-010–9.990not publishednot publishednot published
−72022-02-010–9.990not publishednot publishednot published
−32022-02-010–9.990not publishednot publishednot published
−12022-02-010–9.990not publishednot publishednot published
T02022-02-010–9.990not publishednot publishednot published
+12022-02-010–9.990not publishednot publishednot published
+32022-02-010–9.990not publishednot publishednot published
+72022-03-010–22.46not publishednot publishednot published
+142022-03-010–22.46not publishednot publishednot published
+302022-03-010–22.46not publishednot publishednot published
+602022-04-010–21.16not publishednot publishednot published
+902022-05-010–12.04not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90156.9127.12022-01-01: 151.0 days of cover, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2022-02-01, 154.0 days of cover, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-03-01: 134.0 days of cover, used for offsets +7, +14, +302022-04-01: 130.0 days of cover, used for offsets +602022-05-01: 144.0 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-01151.0-3.000-1.95%-0.17
−142022-02-01same print as T0154.00.0000.00%0.00
−72022-02-01same print as T0154.00.0000.00%0.00
−32022-02-01same print as T0154.00.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-01same print as T0154.00.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-01same print as T0154.00.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-01same print as T0154.00.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-01same print as T0154.00.0000.00%0.00
+72022-03-01134.0-20.000-12.99%-1.16
+142022-03-01134.0-20.000-12.99%-1.16
+302022-03-01134.0-20.000-12.99%-1.16
+602022-04-01130.0-24.000-15.58%-1.39
+902022-05-01144.0-10.000-6.49%-0.58

One volatility unit for this series is 11.18%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7310.4812022-01-24: 0.5049 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.5307 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.5419 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.5541 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.6491 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 0.7014 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 0.7064 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 0.6165 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.5049-0.049-8.88%-1.15
−142022-02-070.5307-0.023-4.22%-0.55
−72022-02-140.5419-0.012-2.19%-0.29
−32022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.6491+0.095+17.15%+2.23
+142022-03-070.7014+0.147+26.58%+3.45
+302022-03-210.7064+0.152+27.49%+3.57
+602022-04-250.6165+0.062+11.26%+1.46
+902022-05-230.6922+0.138+24.93%+3.24

One volatility unit for this series is 7.69%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7310.4812022-01-24: 0.5049 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.5307 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.5419 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.5541 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.6491 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 0.7014 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 0.7064 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 0.6165 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.5049-0.049-8.88%-1.15
−142022-02-070.5307-0.023-4.22%-0.55
−72022-02-140.5419-0.012-2.19%-0.29
−32022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.6491+0.095+17.15%+2.23
+142022-03-070.7014+0.147+26.58%+3.45
+302022-03-210.7064+0.152+27.49%+3.57
+602022-04-250.6165+0.062+11.26%+1.46
+902022-05-230.6922+0.138+24.93%+3.24

One volatility unit for this series is 7.69%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+904,862,1073,995,1382022-01-01: 4,449,956 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2022-02-01, 4,778,207 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-03-01: 4,079,038 tonnes, used for offsets +7, +14, +302022-04-01: 4,195,214 tonnes, used for offsets +602022-05-01: 4,564,170 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-014,449,956-328,251-6.87%-1.08
−142022-02-01same print as T04,778,2070.0000.00%0.00
−72022-02-01same print as T04,778,2070.0000.00%0.00
−32022-02-01same print as T04,778,2070.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-01same print as T04,778,2070.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-01same print as T04,778,2070.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-01same print as T04,778,2070.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-01same print as T04,778,2070.0000.00%0.00
+72022-03-014,079,038-699,169-14.63%-2.31
+142022-03-014,079,038-699,169-14.63%-2.31
+302022-03-014,079,038-699,169-14.63%-2.31
+602022-04-014,195,214-582,993-12.20%-1.92
+902022-05-014,564,170-214,037-4.48%-0.71

One volatility unit for this series is 6.34%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.056-0.1242022-01-24: -0.0079 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.0133 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.0062 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: -0.0170 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: -0.0737 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 0.0388 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: -0.0458 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: -0.1070 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-24-0.0079-0.008not publishednot published
−142022-02-070.0133+0.013not publishednot published
−72022-02-140.0062+0.006not publishednot published
−32022-02-21same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12022-02-21same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-02-21same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-02-21same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-02-21same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-02-28-0.0170-0.017not publishednot published
+142022-03-07-0.0737-0.074not publishednot published
+302022-03-210.0388+0.039not publishednot published
+602022-04-25-0.0458-0.046not publishednot published
+902022-05-23-0.1070-0.107not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.165-0.0632022-01-24: -0.0408 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: -0.0059 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: -0.0051 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.0065 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: -0.0244 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 0.0222 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 0.0430 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 0.1431 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-24-0.0408-0.041not publishednot published
−142022-02-07-0.0059-0.006not publishednot published
−72022-02-14-0.0051-0.005not publishednot published
−32022-02-21same print as T000.000not publishednot published
−12022-02-21same print as T000.000not publishednot published
T02022-02-21same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+12022-02-21same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+32022-02-21same print as T000.000not publishednot published
+72022-02-280.0065+0.007not publishednot published
+142022-03-07-0.0244-0.024not publishednot published
+302022-03-210.0222+0.022not publishednot published
+602022-04-250.0430+0.043not publishednot published
+902022-05-230.1431+0.143not publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.9541.4712022-01-24: 1.518 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 1.593 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 1.607 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 1.621 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 1.645 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 1.685 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 1.907 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 1.825 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 1.869 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-241.518-0.103-6.35%-6.60
−142022-02-071.593-0.028-1.73%-1.79
−72022-02-141.607-0.014-0.86%-0.90
−32022-02-21same print as T01.6210.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T01.6210.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T01.6210.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T01.6210.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T01.6210.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-281.645+0.024+1.48%+1.54
+142022-03-071.685+0.064+3.95%+4.10
+302022-03-211.907+0.286+17.64%+18.32
+602022-04-251.825+0.204+12.58%+13.06
+902022-05-231.869+0.248+15.30%+15.88

One volatility unit for this series is 0.96%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902.3261.7192022-01-24: 1.778 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 1.850 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 1.865 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 1.884 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 1.913 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 1.944 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 2.040 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 2.074 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 2.267 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-241.778-0.106-5.63%-6.20
−142022-02-071.850-0.034-1.80%-1.99
−72022-02-141.865-0.019-1.01%-1.11
−32022-02-21same print as T01.8840.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T01.8840.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T01.8840.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T01.8840.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T01.8840.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-281.913+0.029+1.54%+1.70
+142022-03-071.944+0.060+3.18%+3.51
+302022-03-212.040+0.156+8.28%+9.13
+602022-04-252.074+0.190+10.08%+11.12
+902022-05-232.267+0.383+20.33%+22.42

One volatility unit for this series is 0.91%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1510.7632022-01-24: 0.8009 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.8604 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.8716 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.8829 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.9023 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 0.9345 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 1.114 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 1.047 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 1.083 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.8009-0.082-9.29%-5.84
−142022-02-070.8604-0.022-2.55%-1.60
−72022-02-140.8716-0.011-1.28%-0.80
−32022-02-21same print as T00.88290.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.88290.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.88290.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.88290.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.88290.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.9023+0.019+2.19%+1.38
+142022-03-070.9345+0.052+5.85%+3.67
+302022-03-211.114+0.231+26.12%+16.41
+602022-04-251.047+0.165+18.63%+11.70
+902022-05-231.083+0.200+22.65%+14.23

One volatility unit for this series is 1.59%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1600.6732022-01-24: 0.7198 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.7769 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.7887 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.8040 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.8274 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 0.8524 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 0.9298 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 0.9572 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 1.113 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.7198-0.084-10.48%-4.92
−142022-02-070.7769-0.027-3.38%-1.59
−72022-02-140.7887-0.015-1.91%-0.90
−32022-02-21same print as T00.80400.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.80400.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.80400.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.80400.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.80400.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.8274+0.023+2.91%+1.37
+142022-03-070.8524+0.048+6.02%+2.83
+302022-03-210.9298+0.126+15.65%+7.35
+602022-04-250.9572+0.153+19.06%+8.95
+902022-05-231.113+0.309+38.42%+18.05

One volatility unit for this series is 2.13%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.8030.7082022-01-24: 0.7171 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.7326 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.7354 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.7381 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.7427 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 0.7505 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 0.7934 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 0.7776 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 0.7861 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.7171-0.021-2.84%-7.24
−142022-02-070.7326-0.006-0.75%-1.90
−72022-02-140.7354-0.003-0.37%-0.94
−32022-02-21same print as T00.73810.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.73810.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.73810.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.73810.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.73810.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.7427+0.005+0.63%+1.60
+142022-03-070.7505+0.012+1.68%+4.28
+302022-03-210.7934+0.055+7.50%+19.11
+602022-04-250.7776+0.039+5.35%+13.63
+902022-05-230.7861+0.048+6.50%+16.57

One volatility unit for this series is 0.39%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1661.0472022-01-24: 1.058 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 1.073 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 1.076 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 1.080 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 1.086 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 1.092 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 1.110 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 1.117 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 1.154 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-241.058-0.022-2.01%-6.87
−142022-02-071.073-0.007-0.63%-2.16
−72022-02-141.076-0.004-0.34%-1.16
−32022-02-21same print as T01.0800.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T01.0800.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T01.0800.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T01.0800.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T01.0800.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-281.086+0.006+0.52%+1.77
+142022-03-071.092+0.012+1.08%+3.67
+302022-03-211.110+0.030+2.80%+9.54
+602022-04-251.117+0.037+3.40%+11.62
+902022-05-231.154+0.074+6.86%+23.42

One volatility unit for this series is 0.29%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9087.3712.822022-01-25: 22.61 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-02-10: 25.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-02-17: 23.41 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-02-18: 21.50 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-02-23: 20.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-02-24, 20.76 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-02-25: 22.06 $ per barrel, used for offsets +1, +32022-03-03: 37.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-03-10: 30.44 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-03-25: 55.41 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 80.15 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-05-25: 54.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-2522.61+1.846+8.89%+1.05
−142022-02-1025.09+4.332+20.87%+2.47
−72022-02-1723.41+2.650+12.76%+1.51
−32022-02-1821.50+0.742+3.57%+0.42
−12022-02-2320.03-0.730-3.52%-0.42
T02022-02-24same print as T020.760.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-2522.06+1.302+6.27%+0.74
+32022-02-2522.06+1.302+6.27%+0.74
+72022-03-0337.39+16.632+80.11%+9.48
+142022-03-1030.44+9.682+46.63%+5.52
+302022-03-2555.41+34.648+166.88%+19.75
+602022-04-2580.15+59.392+286.06%+33.85
+902022-05-2554.28+33.516+161.43%+19.10

One volatility unit for this series is 8.45%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (751 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9051.418.992022-01-25: 15.43 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-02-10: 17.95 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-02-17: 18.67 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-02-18: 19.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-02-23: 17.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-02-24, 17.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-02-25: 18.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets +1, +32022-03-03: 18.33 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-03-10: 13.10 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-03-25: 16.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 36.43 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-05-25: 47.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-2515.43-1.934-11.14%-0.06
−142022-02-1017.95+0.594+3.42%+0.02
−72022-02-1718.67+1.306+7.52%+0.04
−32022-02-1819.03+1.666+9.60%+0.05
−12022-02-2317.39+0.026+0.15%+0.00
T02022-02-24same print as T017.360.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-2518.28+0.924+5.32%+0.03
+32022-02-2518.28+0.924+5.32%+0.03
+72022-03-0318.33+0.966+5.56%+0.03
+142022-03-1013.10-4.262-24.55%-0.14
+302022-03-2516.69-0.674-3.88%-0.02
+602022-04-2536.43+19.072+109.86%+0.61
+902022-05-2547.31+29.946+172.50%+0.95

One volatility unit for this series is 180.80%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (751 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9086.115.052022-01-25: 13.79 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-02-10: 16.48 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-02-17: 13.25 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-02-18: 12.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-02-23: 12.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-02-24, 12.99 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-02-25: 14.50 $ per barrel, used for offsets +1, +32022-03-03: 23.95 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-03-10: 16.37 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-03-25: 37.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 78.26 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-05-25: 40.71 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-2513.79+0.796+6.13%+0.04
−142022-02-1016.48+3.492+26.88%+0.15
−72022-02-1713.25+0.256+1.97%+0.01
−32022-02-1812.98-0.014-0.11%-0.00
−12022-02-2312.89-0.100-0.77%-0.00
T02022-02-24same print as T012.990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-2514.50+1.512+11.64%+0.07
+32022-02-2514.50+1.512+11.64%+0.07
+72022-03-0323.95+10.962+84.38%+0.48
+142022-03-1016.37+3.382+26.03%+0.15
+302022-03-2537.98+24.988+192.33%+1.10
+602022-04-2578.26+65.272+502.40%+2.88
+902022-05-2540.71+27.720+213.36%+1.22

One volatility unit for this series is 174.63%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (751 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2022-01Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2022-02-24. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only58.24–66.08 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-03) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only0–22.46 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-03) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed134.0 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-03-01)-12.99% from the level at T0 = -1.16 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed122.7 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-03-25)+21.11% from the level at T0 = +4.87 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed4,079,038 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-03-01)-14.63% from the level at T0 = -2.31 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed1.114 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-03-21)+26.12% from the level at T0 = +16.41 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed1.907 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-03-21)+17.64% from the level at T0 = +18.32 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-02-17 to 2022-03-26 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Greece, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

The crude-only comparison could not be read.

API 404 for /api/events/ru-invasion-ukraine-2022/crude-only: No stored crude-only run for 'ru-invasion-ukraine-2022' and country 'greece'. Runs are stored for the pilot countries; available_countries lists them.

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's pre-tax petrol price moved +2.9%, which is 1.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    0.8274
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    9.592619768378507
    t0_value
    0.80401
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.909167796420445
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.3668434700774892
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.023390000000000022
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.909167796420445
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1283840177072495
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.3668434700774892
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    0.8274
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    9.592619768378507
    t0_value
    0.80401
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.909167796420445
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.3668434700774892
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.023390000000000022
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.909167796420445
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1283840177072495
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.3668434700774892

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 873d7fdf9ddfcd8e7c20517fc5c6370a986f47d966d6afbb697a73c21a7a1fcd · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's pre-tax petrol price moved +15.6%, which is 7.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    0.9298200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    17.46376314826416
    t0_value
    0.80401
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    15.647815325680039
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.351969943157284
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.1258100000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.647815325680039
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1283840177072495
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.351969943157284
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    0.9298200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    17.46376314826416
    t0_value
    0.80401
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    15.647815325680039
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.351969943157284
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.1258100000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.647815325680039
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1283840177072495
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.351969943157284

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint ed9622239957e15e488267e406e04a6a9c1211bd302c205ecd73fd164803db68 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's pre-tax petrol price moved +38.4%, which is 18.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.1128900000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    31.53299004296896
    t0_value
    0.80401
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    38.417432618997296
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    18.0500475005359
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.30888000000000015
    change_pct_from_t0
    38.417432618997296
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1283840177072495
    change_in_volatility_units
    18.0500475005359
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.1128900000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    31.53299004296896
    t0_value
    0.80401
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    38.417432618997296
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    18.0500475005359
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.30888000000000015
    change_pct_from_t0
    38.417432618997296
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.1283840177072495
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    18.0500475005359

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 2e978b80f7e5c3187809791922da4e8c812f65374115d23fa4966e1ae8e4a947 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +1.5%, which is 1.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.913
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    9.33183392335715
    t0_value
    1.8840000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.539278131634815
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.697317043812313
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.028999999999999915
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.539278131634815
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9068889853232548
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.697317043812313
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.913
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    9.33183392335715
    t0_value
    1.8840000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    1.539278131634815
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.697317043812313
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.028999999999999915
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.539278131634815
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9068889853232548
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.697317043812313

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 2d36fd6b71ee731e1b09961fe6fd830da16c35d9f647ab7b84aedb4366a3cd81 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +8.3%, which is 9.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.04
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    16.85655080123879
    t0_value
    1.8840000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    8.280254777070057
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    9.130395132231772
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.15599999999999992
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.280254777070057
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9068889853232548
    change_in_volatility_units
    9.130395132231772
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.04
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    16.85655080123879
    t0_value
    1.8840000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    8.280254777070057
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    9.130395132231772
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.15599999999999992
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.280254777070057
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9068889853232548
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    9.130395132231772

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 870bdd678e01284442663612fa2c50050b9d01b2a7e322623dff48bf37a5b254 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +20.3%, which is 22.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.267
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    30.306241598712262
    t0_value
    1.8840000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    20.329087048832257
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    22.416290613107495
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3829999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    20.329087048832257
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9068889853232548
    change_in_volatility_units
    22.416290613107495
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.267
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    30.306241598712262
    t0_value
    1.8840000000000001
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    20.329087048832257
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    22.416290613107495
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3829999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    20.329087048832257
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9068889853232548
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    22.416290613107495

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8930d78b70f29ff426d3722ab23c3f1b4a2930a41cedaa12caf76c89d298fd6c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's pre-tax diesel price moved +2.2%, which is 1.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    0.90228
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    9.258287360440685
    t0_value
    0.88293
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.191566715368147
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.376558527726916
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01934999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.191566715368147
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5920621399128143
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.376558527726916
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    0.90228
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    9.258287360440685
    t0_value
    0.88293
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.191566715368147
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.376558527726916
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.01934999999999998
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.191566715368147
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5920621399128143
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.376558527726916

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 6adefee9220f0540dcfd4cd407877ee3e6de453152e65b8da4614d3ef02389b2 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's pre-tax diesel price moved +26.1%, which is 16.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.11357
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    25.826636282773354
    t0_value
    0.88293
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    26.122116136047023
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    16.407723970797736
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.23063999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    26.122116136047023
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5920621399128143
    change_in_volatility_units
    16.407723970797736
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.11357
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    25.826636282773354
    t0_value
    0.88293
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    26.122116136047023
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    16.407723970797736
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.23063999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    26.122116136047023
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5920621399128143
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    16.407723970797736

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 609965239d9c9c658b1e2271dd1eb60259de110990800c61b5a24d05f487bea5 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's pre-tax diesel price moved +22.7%, which is 14.2 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.0829300000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    23.42399436417678
    t0_value
    0.88293
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    22.651852355226367
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.22799511862448
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.20000000000000018
    change_pct_from_t0
    22.651852355226367
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5920621399128143
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.22799511862448
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.0829300000000002
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    23.42399436417678
    t0_value
    0.88293
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    22.651852355226367
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.22799511862448
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.20000000000000018
    change_pct_from_t0
    22.651852355226367
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.5920621399128143
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.22799511862448

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint b3888901d301477123be16e1b8f832f865e0270a73d6e33f426280fe2c675e43 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +1.5%, which is 1.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.645
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    8.950234691388152
    t0_value
    1.621
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.4805675508945109
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.5370247793994534
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.02400000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.4805675508945109
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9632684981650058
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.5370247793994534
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.645
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    8.950234691388152
    t0_value
    1.621
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    1.4805675508945109
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.5370247793994534
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.02400000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    1.4805675508945109
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9632684981650058
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.5370247793994534

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint acd642f6ac40ca2f9130ff6fae9d0a46a4bd179bf3133370cfda3f62265ab9bb · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +17.6%, which is 18.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.907
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    24.68823126282235
    t0_value
    1.621
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    17.643429981492908
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    18.316211954510138
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.28600000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    17.643429981492908
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9632684981650058
    change_in_volatility_units
    18.316211954510138
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.907
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    24.68823126282235
    t0_value
    1.621
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    17.643429981492908
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    18.316211954510138
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.28600000000000003
    change_pct_from_t0
    17.643429981492908
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9632684981650058
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    18.316211954510138

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 372b2a3ada596f6ef59cd93328a2a3710fb330aaa0580846f354c4edbefd8d71 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Greece's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +15.3%, which is 15.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.869
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    22.40562107307235
    t0_value
    1.621
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    15.299198025909932
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.882589387127672
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.248
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.299198025909932
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9632684981650058
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.882589387127672
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.869
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    z_score
    22.40562107307235
    t0_value
    1.621
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    15.299198025909932
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_GR_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    15.882589387127672
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.248
    change_pct_from_t0
    15.299198025909932
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    0.9632684981650058
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    15.882589387127672

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint aafdbd2fa574922c5ad168c9fb820f8865990fe9d5854a79c792f60a5451754a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. Over the 4 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax petrol price by +10.4 c/L (range +4.9–+15.8); it actually moved +12.6 c/L, leaving +2.2 c/L not explained by crude.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-03-21
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-02-18
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.02217683707497603
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-02-21
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.1258100000000001
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.10363316292502406
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.11680573781220037
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -4.018000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.04884673806557295
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.15841958778447515
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    180.79993207863203
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-03-21
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-02-18
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.02217683707497603
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-02-21
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.1258100000000001
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.10363316292502406
    proxy_volatility_units
    -0.11680573781220037
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    -4.018000000000001
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.04884673806557295
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.15841958778447515
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    180.79993207863203

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint 0f9cc862fba02f1f106680f5a80bbc11e0b7a7ee7bd0680b2b55e7fd48245142 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. Over the 13 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax petrol price by +16.6 c/L (range +3.3–+29.9); it actually moved +30.9 c/L, leaving +14.3 c/L not explained by crude.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-05-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-02-18
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.1430510409601397
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-02-21
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.30888000000000015
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.16582895903986045
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.8092678270821386
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.837999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.033007067206949965
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2986508508727707
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    180.79993207863203
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    GASOLINE
    proxy_to_date
    2022-05-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-02-18
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.1430510409601397
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-02-21
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.30888000000000015
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.16582895903986045
    proxy_volatility_units
    0.8092678270821386
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    27.837999999999997
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.033007067206949965
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.2986508508727707
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    180.79993207863203

    Template event.crude_only.computed v1.1 · Fingerprint e3ac37c6a23c180451f87f40485befdf7ec471dcdffcceadd374af293a5d10f8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Over the 4 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax diesel price by +19.2 c/L (range +8.2–+30.2); it actually moved +23.1 c/L, leaving +3.9 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 22.2 $/bbl.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-03-21
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-02-18
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.03884824231239736
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-02-21
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.23063999999999996
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.1917917576876026
    proxy_volatility_units
    12.233577860390142
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    22.231999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.0818310758089805
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.3017524395662278
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    8.450955055544933
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    4
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-03-21
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-02-18
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    gap_eur_per_litre
    0.03884824231239736
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-02-21
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.23063999999999996
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.1917917576876026
    proxy_volatility_units
    12.233577860390142
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    22.231999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.0818310758089805
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.3017524395662278
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    8.450955055544933

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 2265915d4569d84a2e67b222698da48f095bad612f1519a92ec71c09b36b5c79 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Over the 13 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Greece's pre-tax diesel price by +30.7 c/L (range +1.6–+59.8); it actually moved +20.0 c/L, leaving -10.7 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 29.9 $/bbl.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-05-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-02-18
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.10695849703267984
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-02-21
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.20000000000000018
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.30695849703268
    proxy_volatility_units
    16.427727304969743
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    29.853999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.016215709807678773
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.5977012842576862
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    8.450955055544933
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    13
    status
    COMPUTED
    country
    Greece
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_GR_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    offset_weeks
    13
    proxy_product
    DIESEL
    proxy_to_date
    2022-05-23
    pass_through_k
    2
    proxy_from_date
    2022-02-18
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    gap_eur_per_litre
    -0.10695849703267984
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
    anchor_period_start
    2022-02-21
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    0.20000000000000018
    expected_eur_per_litre
    0.30695849703268
    proxy_volatility_units
    16.427727304969743
    pass_through_sample_end
    2026-09-14
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    29.853999999999996
    pass_through_sample_start
    2023-09-25
    pass_through_window_label
    ROLLING_156W
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    0.016215709807678773
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    0.5977012842576862
    proxy_normal_volatility_pct
    8.450955055544933

    Template event.crude_only.computed_with_proxy v1.1 · Fingerprint 10b908cea83c7bfc497fe2b32c018dcfd75dce2d6076952274817d6a0490b3e4 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was significant (49%–62%) for Greece in 2022-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    61.7306908362108
    value_min_pct
    48.8258092321778
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    significant
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    61.7306908362108
    value_min_pct
    48.8258092321778
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint f23db3257297b7e12820d988210f6b92603b6186b954fea6a2f17d30ddb97668 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%–10%) for Greece in 2022-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about GreeceCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    9.99020077866931
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Greece
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    value_max_pct
    9.99020077866931
    value_min_pct
    0
    exposure_status
    PARTIAL
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 1b89371ee27c715e4817badedd8a79845689512f6e5441435705d8ae76b28e31 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Available evidence does show a physical supply reduction: Greece's reported crude imports in 2022-02 were -10.3% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-02
    country
    Greece
    change_pct
    -10.31290106835566
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    1791235
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    1997204.75
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-02
    country
    Greece
    change_pct
    -10.31290106835566
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    1791235
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    1997204.75
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint 5eb5070b52839c1b22a1c1fe83590e89d35f0c0ae9c4a1981414db59368e6a61 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In 2022-02, Greece's oil stocks stood 11.0% above their trailing 12-month mean, with 154.0 days of cover (as published).

    about GreeceCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_GR
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    days_of_cover
    154
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    7.376499902470946
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    4778207
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    23
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    4303594.833333333
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    11.028272526739176
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    11.028272526739176
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    11
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Greece
    direction
    above
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_GR
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    days_of_cover
    154
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    7.376499902470946
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    4778207
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    23
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    4303594.833333333
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    11.028272526739176
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.above v1.1 · Fingerprint 9c52c37d7f9ef9ac2a84f442732cebfbea959e81b188d0e5312a64eb682dd0c8 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Greece around Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was significant (49–62%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about GreeceUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    country
    Greece
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    dependence_band
    significant
    dependence_range
    49–62%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    country
    Greece
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    GR
    country_name
    Greece
    country_slug
    greece
    dependence_band
    significant
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    49–62%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 33751f002e84d09af7b964e0ff5a7733c6614bd03c955fafde3d5d25407f9958 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +13.9%, which is 3.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    115.36
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    5.841150770454914
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    13.890808569454036
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-03-03
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.203825480890899
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    14.069999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    13.890808569454036
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.203825480890899
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    115.36
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    5.841150770454914
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    13.890808569454036
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-03-03
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.203825480890899
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    14.069999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    13.890808569454036
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.203825480890899

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 499e14f143cd15685ef1480ed3fa89cd45abe5f0647c7ec6a69249dfc87c1dd1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +21.1%, which is 4.9 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    122.67
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    6.996054504576924
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    21.107710534109977
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-03-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.868357411616733
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.379999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    21.107710534109977
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.868357411616733
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    122.67
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    6.996054504576924
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    21.107710534109977
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-03-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.868357411616733
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.379999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    21.107710534109977
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.868357411616733

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 216049ee46b7aafc7c24ef4f74d592168c4ca36a76f9b7e30eb4f402126d0f04 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +14.9%, which is 3.4 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    116.41
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    6.007039815711837
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    14.927436074637171
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.4429169346887267
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    15.11999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    14.927436074637171
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.4429169346887267
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    116.41
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    6.007039815711837
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    14.927436074637171
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.4429169346887267
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    15.11999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    14.927436074637171
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.4429169346887267

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c4d928f0edacc86e86f81949df4a6221c6a157e987b0435ccf81af9f53e267c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 06b89c2e9e647323c15398c394cf050a39c9a42ef3b469967cce5fff091ed96a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint eacf068451f42ad71340259d5f692acb03bf66b7a7d6f730ade5a819ff7d1005 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  27. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 0a8ec24923eb853f8772aa729f8ec775267350a63bc1d8e64f27facfb62978a7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  28. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 92e561b810be016411f6a7bbc96381cc8ebec1f6df6e0ae2fd7fc342f4dc1c9f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Greece: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.