Events / War
Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- Dates
- 2022-02-24 → no end date recorded
- Dated to
- the day
- Status
- Ongoing
- Scope
- Ukraine
What the sources said
European Council, special meeting of 24 February 2022, document EUCO 18/22: "European Council conclusions on Russia's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine"; "The European Council condemns in the strongest possible terms the Russian Federation's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine." The conclusions are dated and headed 24 February 2022, which is the date recorded here. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.
IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Provenance
OfficialOfficial- Dataset id
- Fuel Origin curated event timeline (data/reference/events.csv)events.csvreference_events_v1
- Period
- not recorded
- Retrieved
- 2026-09-30 11:07 UTC
- Type
- Official
- Transformation
- none applied - stored exactly as published
- Licence
- Per-row: each row traces to the agency or legislative document named in source_urls.
- An event record describes what happened, not what it caused (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §5).
- 7009 of 10179 window points carry an observed value; the rest are recorded holes, not zeros.
- Channels with no usable source: NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE, NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE, NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK, NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES, NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES.
Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.
The event window
What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.
Poland, all fuels in this run. 22 series can be drawn; 7 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.
271 published readings, 15 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 91 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.
Europe Brent spot FOB
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-25 | 89.49 | -11.800 | -11.65% | -2.69 |
| −14 | 2022-02-10 | 96.37 | -4.920 | -4.86% | -1.12 |
| −7 | 2022-02-17 | 95.28 | -6.010 | -5.93% | -1.37 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21 | 98.95 | -2.340 | -2.31% | -0.53 |
| −1 | 2022-02-23 | 99.29 | -2.000 | -1.97% | -0.46 |
| T0 | 2022-02-24same print as T0 | 101.3 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-25 | 98.56 | -2.730 | -2.70% | -0.62 |
| +3 | 2022-02-25 | 98.56 | -2.730 | -2.70% | -0.62 |
| +7 | 2022-03-03 | 115.4 | +14.070 | +13.89% | +3.20 |
| +14 | 2022-03-10 | 114.5 | +13.250 | +13.08% | +3.02 |
| +30 | 2022-03-25 | 122.7 | +21.380 | +21.11% | +4.87 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 99.27 | -2.020 | -1.99% | -0.46 |
| +90 | 2022-05-25 | 116.4 | +15.120 | +14.93% | +3.44 |
One volatility unit for this series is 4.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (767 changes). It is not a significance test.
reported crude oil imports, all origins
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-01 | 2,001,564 | -150,095 | -6.98% | -0.36 |
| −14 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 2,151,659 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −7 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 2,151,659 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −3 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 2,151,659 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 2,151,659 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 2,151,659 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 2,151,659 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 2,151,659 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-03-01 | 1,923,957 | -227,702 | -10.58% | -0.55 |
| +14 | 2022-03-01 | 1,923,957 | -227,702 | -10.58% | -0.55 |
| +30 | 2022-03-01 | 1,923,957 | -227,702 | -10.58% | -0.55 |
| +60 | 2022-04-01 | 2,098,750 | -52,909 | -2.46% | -0.13 |
| +90 | 2022-05-01 | 2,394,852 | +243,193 | +11.30% | +0.59 |
One volatility unit for this series is 19.16%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.
crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | 0.7250 | -0.068 | -8.59% | -0.14 |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | 0.7579 | -0.035 | -4.45% | -0.07 |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | 0.7772 | -0.016 | -2.02% | -0.03 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7932 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7932 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7932 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7932 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7932 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 0.8322 | +0.039 | +4.92% | +0.08 |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 0.9546 | +0.161 | +20.35% | +0.34 |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 0.9936 | +0.200 | +25.26% | +0.42 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 1.046 | +0.253 | +31.88% | +0.53 |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | 1.152 | +0.359 | +45.22% | +0.76 |
One volatility unit for this series is 59.65%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.
crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | 0.6994 | -0.056 | -7.37% | -0.12 |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | 0.7288 | -0.026 | -3.48% | -0.06 |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | 0.7418 | -0.013 | -1.75% | -0.03 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7551 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7551 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7551 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7551 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7551 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 0.7981 | +0.043 | +5.70% | +0.09 |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 0.8541 | +0.099 | +13.12% | +0.21 |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 0.9414 | +0.186 | +24.68% | +0.40 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 1.016 | +0.261 | +34.60% | +0.56 |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | 1.097 | +0.342 | +45.35% | +0.74 |
One volatility unit for this series is 61.36%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.
ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-25 | 1.127 | +0.011 | +0.94% | +2.37 |
| −14 | 2022-02-10 | 1.144 | +0.028 | +2.47% | +6.23 |
| −7 | 2022-02-17 | 1.137 | +0.021 | +1.85% | +4.67 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21 | 1.134 | +0.017 | +1.57% | +3.95 |
| −1 | 2022-02-23 | 1.134 | +0.018 | +1.62% | +4.09 |
| T0 | 2022-02-24same print as T0 | 1.116 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-25 | 1.122 | +0.005 | +0.47% | +1.20 |
| +3 | 2022-02-25 | 1.122 | +0.005 | +0.47% | +1.20 |
| +7 | 2022-03-03 | 1.108 | -0.009 | -0.78% | -1.96 |
| +14 | 2022-03-10 | 1.108 | -0.008 | -0.71% | -1.78 |
| +30 | 2022-03-25 | 1.100 | -0.016 | -1.44% | -3.64 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 1.075 | -0.042 | -3.74% | -9.42 |
| +90 | 2022-05-25 | 1.066 | -0.051 | -4.54% | -11.45 |
One volatility unit for this series is 0.40%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.
direct crude Hormuz exposure D1
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-01 | 0–21.06 | not published | not published | not published |
| −14 | 2022-02-01 | 0–15.63 | not published | not published | not published |
| −7 | 2022-02-01 | 0–15.63 | not published | not published | not published |
| −3 | 2022-02-01 | 0–15.63 | not published | not published | not published |
| −1 | 2022-02-01 | 0–15.63 | not published | not published | not published |
| T0 | 2022-02-01 | 0–15.63 | not published | not published | not published |
| +1 | 2022-02-01 | 0–15.63 | not published | not published | not published |
| +3 | 2022-02-01 | 0–15.63 | not published | not published | not published |
| +7 | 2022-03-01 | 0–17.66 | not published | not published | not published |
| +14 | 2022-03-01 | 0–17.66 | not published | not published | not published |
| +30 | 2022-03-01 | 0–17.66 | not published | not published | not published |
| +60 | 2022-04-01 | 0–28.21 | not published | not published | not published |
| +90 | 2022-05-01 | 0–35.00 | not published | not published | not published |
No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.
direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −14 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −7 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −3 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −1 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| T0 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +1 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +3 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +7 | 2022-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +14 | 2022-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +30 | 2022-03-01 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +60 | 2022-04-01 | 0–1.873 | not published | not published | not published |
| +90 | 2022-05-01 | 0–6.522 | not published | not published | not published |
No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.
inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-01 | 98.00 | +1.000 | +1.03% | +0.42 |
| −14 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 97.00 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −7 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 97.00 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −3 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 97.00 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 97.00 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 97.00 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 97.00 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 97.00 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-03-01 | 97.00 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +14 | 2022-03-01 | 97.00 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +30 | 2022-03-01 | 97.00 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +60 | 2022-04-01 | 97.00 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +90 | 2022-05-01 | 96.00 | -1.000 | -1.03% | -0.42 |
One volatility unit for this series is 2.43%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.
crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | 0.5049 | -0.049 | -8.88% | -1.15 |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | 0.5307 | -0.023 | -4.22% | -0.55 |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | 0.5419 | -0.012 | -2.19% | -0.29 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.5541 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.5541 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.5541 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.5541 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.5541 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 0.6491 | +0.095 | +17.15% | +2.23 |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 0.7014 | +0.147 | +26.58% | +3.45 |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 0.7064 | +0.152 | +27.49% | +3.57 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 0.6165 | +0.062 | +11.26% | +1.46 |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | 0.6922 | +0.138 | +24.93% | +3.24 |
One volatility unit for this series is 7.69%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.
crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | 0.5049 | -0.049 | -8.88% | -1.15 |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | 0.5307 | -0.023 | -4.22% | -0.55 |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | 0.5419 | -0.012 | -2.19% | -0.29 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.5541 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.5541 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.5541 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.5541 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.5541 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 0.6491 | +0.095 | +17.15% | +2.23 |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 0.7014 | +0.147 | +26.58% | +3.45 |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 0.7064 | +0.152 | +27.49% | +3.57 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 0.6165 | +0.062 | +11.26% | +1.46 |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | 0.6922 | +0.138 | +24.93% | +3.24 |
One volatility unit for this series is 7.69%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.
national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-01 | 10,414,656 | -4,163 | -0.04% | -0.02 |
| −14 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 10,418,819 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −7 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 10,418,819 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −3 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 10,418,819 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 10,418,819 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 10,418,819 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 10,418,819 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-01same print as T0 | 10,418,819 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-03-01 | 10,662,475 | +243,656 | +2.34% | +0.91 |
| +14 | 2022-03-01 | 10,662,475 | +243,656 | +2.34% | +0.91 |
| +30 | 2022-03-01 | 10,662,475 | +243,656 | +2.34% | +0.91 |
| +60 | 2022-04-01 | 10,855,471 | +436,652 | +4.19% | +1.62 |
| +90 | 2022-05-01 | 10,842,052 | +423,233 | +4.06% | +1.57 |
One volatility unit for this series is 2.58%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.
not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | 0.0033 | +0.003 | not published | not published |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | 0.0001 | +0.000 | not published | not published |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | -0.0039 | -0.004 | not published | not published |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 0.0192 | +0.019 | not published | not published |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 0.0592 | +0.059 | not published | not published |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 0.1304 | +0.130 | not published | not published |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 0.0849 | +0.085 | not published | not published |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | -0.0243 | -0.024 | not published | not published |
No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.
not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | -0.0100 | -0.010 | not published | not published |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | -0.0096 | -0.010 | not published | not published |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | -0.0072 | -0.007 | not published | not published |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0 | 0.000 | not published | not published |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 0.0157 | +0.016 | not published | not published |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 0.0428 | +0.043 | not published | not published |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 0.0236 | +0.024 | not published | not published |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | -0.0604 | -0.060 | not published | not published |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | 0.0286 | +0.029 | not published | not published |
No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.
Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | 1.285 | +0.085 | +7.08% | +4.07 |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | 1.162 | -0.039 | -3.22% | -1.85 |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | 1.178 | -0.022 | -1.82% | -1.05 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 1.200 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 1.200 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 1.200 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 1.200 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 1.200 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 1.252 | +0.052 | +4.34% | +2.49 |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 1.409 | +0.209 | +17.44% | +10.02 |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 1.546 | +0.345 | +28.78% | +16.53 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 1.557 | +0.357 | +29.75% | +17.09 |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | 1.555 | +0.355 | +29.56% | +16.98 |
One volatility unit for this series is 1.74%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.
Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | 1.274 | +0.083 | +6.94% | +4.00 |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | 1.152 | -0.039 | -3.30% | -1.90 |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | 1.169 | -0.022 | -1.89% | -1.09 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 1.191 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 1.191 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 1.191 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 1.191 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 1.191 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 1.243 | +0.052 | +4.33% | +2.50 |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 1.313 | +0.122 | +10.20% | +5.88 |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 1.405 | +0.214 | +17.95% | +10.35 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 1.400 | +0.208 | +17.50% | +10.09 |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | 1.585 | +0.394 | +33.05% | +19.06 |
One volatility unit for this series is 1.73%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.
Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | 0.7283 | -0.065 | -8.18% | -3.90 |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | 0.7580 | -0.035 | -4.44% | -2.12 |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | 0.7733 | -0.020 | -2.51% | -1.20 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7932 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7932 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7932 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7932 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7932 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 0.8515 | +0.058 | +7.35% | +3.50 |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 1.014 | +0.221 | +27.81% | +13.26 |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 1.124 | +0.331 | +41.70% | +19.88 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 1.131 | +0.338 | +42.58% | +20.30 |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | 1.128 | +0.334 | +42.16% | +20.10 |
One volatility unit for this series is 2.10%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.
Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | 0.6895 | -0.066 | -8.69% | -3.83 |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | 0.7192 | -0.036 | -4.74% | -2.09 |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | 0.7346 | -0.020 | -2.71% | -1.19 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7551 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7551 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7551 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7551 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.7551 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 0.8139 | +0.059 | +7.79% | +3.43 |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 0.8969 | +0.142 | +18.79% | +8.28 |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 0.9650 | +0.210 | +27.80% | +12.26 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 0.9559 | +0.201 | +26.60% | +11.73 |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | 1.126 | +0.371 | +49.14% | +21.66 |
One volatility unit for this series is 2.27%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.
total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | 0.5569 | +0.150 | +36.82% | +14.68 |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | 0.4036 | -0.003 | -0.85% | -0.34 |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | 0.4050 | -0.002 | -0.48% | -0.19 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.4070 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.4070 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.4070 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.4070 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.4070 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 0.4008 | -0.006 | -1.53% | -0.61 |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 0.3957 | -0.011 | -2.78% | -1.11 |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 0.4217 | +0.015 | +3.61% | +1.44 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 0.4263 | +0.019 | +4.73% | +1.89 |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | 0.4273 | +0.020 | +5.00% | +1.99 |
One volatility unit for this series is 2.51%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.
total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-24 | 0.5845 | +0.148 | +34.00% | +14.09 |
| −14 | 2022-02-07 | 0.4327 | -0.004 | -0.81% | -0.33 |
| −7 | 2022-02-14 | 0.4342 | -0.002 | -0.47% | -0.19 |
| −3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.4362 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.4362 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.4362 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.4362 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +3 | 2022-02-21same print as T0 | 0.4362 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +7 | 2022-02-28 | 0.4290 | -0.007 | -1.65% | -0.68 |
| +14 | 2022-03-07 | 0.4159 | -0.020 | -4.66% | -1.93 |
| +30 | 2022-03-21 | 0.4402 | +0.004 | +0.90% | +0.37 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 0.4438 | +0.008 | +1.74% | +0.72 |
| +90 | 2022-05-23 | 0.4589 | +0.023 | +5.21% | +2.16 |
One volatility unit for this series is 2.41%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.
US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-25 | 22.61 | +1.846 | +8.89% | +1.05 |
| −14 | 2022-02-10 | 25.09 | +4.332 | +20.87% | +2.47 |
| −7 | 2022-02-17 | 23.41 | +2.650 | +12.76% | +1.51 |
| −3 | 2022-02-18 | 21.50 | +0.742 | +3.57% | +0.42 |
| −1 | 2022-02-23 | 20.03 | -0.730 | -3.52% | -0.42 |
| T0 | 2022-02-24same print as T0 | 20.76 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-25 | 22.06 | +1.302 | +6.27% | +0.74 |
| +3 | 2022-02-25 | 22.06 | +1.302 | +6.27% | +0.74 |
| +7 | 2022-03-03 | 37.39 | +16.632 | +80.11% | +9.48 |
| +14 | 2022-03-10 | 30.44 | +9.682 | +46.63% | +5.52 |
| +30 | 2022-03-25 | 55.41 | +34.648 | +166.88% | +19.75 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 80.15 | +59.392 | +286.06% | +33.85 |
| +90 | 2022-05-25 | 54.28 | +33.516 | +161.43% | +19.10 |
One volatility unit for this series is 8.45%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (751 changes). It is not a significance test.
US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-25 | 15.43 | -1.934 | -11.14% | -0.06 |
| −14 | 2022-02-10 | 17.95 | +0.594 | +3.42% | +0.02 |
| −7 | 2022-02-17 | 18.67 | +1.306 | +7.52% | +0.04 |
| −3 | 2022-02-18 | 19.03 | +1.666 | +9.60% | +0.05 |
| −1 | 2022-02-23 | 17.39 | +0.026 | +0.15% | +0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-24same print as T0 | 17.36 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-25 | 18.28 | +0.924 | +5.32% | +0.03 |
| +3 | 2022-02-25 | 18.28 | +0.924 | +5.32% | +0.03 |
| +7 | 2022-03-03 | 18.33 | +0.966 | +5.56% | +0.03 |
| +14 | 2022-03-10 | 13.10 | -4.262 | -24.55% | -0.14 |
| +30 | 2022-03-25 | 16.69 | -0.674 | -3.88% | -0.02 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 36.43 | +19.072 | +109.86% | +0.61 |
| +90 | 2022-05-25 | 47.31 | +29.946 | +172.50% | +0.95 |
One volatility unit for this series is 180.80%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (751 changes). It is not a significance test.
US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).
x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.
| Offset | Print used | Value | Δ abs | Δ % | Volatility units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| −30 | 2022-01-25 | 13.79 | +0.796 | +6.13% | +0.04 |
| −14 | 2022-02-10 | 16.48 | +3.492 | +26.88% | +0.15 |
| −7 | 2022-02-17 | 13.25 | +0.256 | +1.97% | +0.01 |
| −3 | 2022-02-18 | 12.98 | -0.014 | -0.11% | -0.00 |
| −1 | 2022-02-23 | 12.89 | -0.100 | -0.77% | -0.00 |
| T0 | 2022-02-24same print as T0 | 12.99 | 0.000 | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| +1 | 2022-02-25 | 14.50 | +1.512 | +11.64% | +0.07 |
| +3 | 2022-02-25 | 14.50 | +1.512 | +11.64% | +0.07 |
| +7 | 2022-03-03 | 23.95 | +10.962 | +84.38% | +0.48 |
| +14 | 2022-03-10 | 16.37 | +3.382 | +26.03% | +0.15 |
| +30 | 2022-03-25 | 37.98 | +24.988 | +192.33% | +1.10 |
| +60 | 2022-04-25 | 78.26 | +65.272 | +502.40% | +2.88 |
| +90 | 2022-05-25 | 40.71 | +27.720 | +213.36% | +1.22 |
One volatility unit for this series is 174.63%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (751 changes). It is not a significance test.
Not available: licence-blocked
A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.
Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate
Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
EU refined-product benchmark
EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
EU refined-product benchmark
EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread
No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread
No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
wholesale / rack price
Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
wholesale / rack price
Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
13 offsets in the window are affected.
T0 is 2022-02-24. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.
Is Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022) really the reason?
The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.
Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.
Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.
| Dimension | Status | Published figure, or why there is none |
|---|---|---|
| Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz. | Range only | 0–17.66 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-03) · no midpoint |
| Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz. | Observed | 0 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-03-01) |
| Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel. | Observed | 97.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-03-01)0.00% from the level at T0 = 0.00 volatility units |
| Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against. | Observed | 122.7 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-03-25)+21.11% from the level at T0 = +4.87 volatility units |
| Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against. | Unavailable | EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted. |
| Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned. | Unavailable | No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished. |
| Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo. | Unavailable | Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate. |
| InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change. | Observed | 10,662,475 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-03-01)+2.34% from the level at T0 = +0.91 volatility units |
| Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt. | Unavailable | Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant. |
| Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out. | Observed | 1.124 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-03-21)+41.70% from the level at T0 = +19.88 volatility units |
| Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid. | Observed | 1.546 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-03-21)+28.78% from the level at T0 = +16.53 volatility units |
Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
What the pump price did around this date
The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.
Price decomposition, 2022-02-17 to 2022-03-26 →
The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.
Actual vs crude-only: Poland, petrol (euro-super 95)
What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.
- Actual pre-tax change(official prices)
- What crude alone would have done(calculated, with range)
- Shaded: not explained by crude(not attributed to any cause)
- Not published(no pre-tax price or crude cost that week)
Changes are measured from the bulletin week of 2022-02-21. Crude response taken from the stored pass-through estimate over the most recent three-year window (2023-09-25 to 2026-09-14). The light band is a conservative range, not a 90% interval. The shaded area is not explained by crude: refining margins, freight, retail margins and model error are all inside it, and none is named as its cause.
- Over the 4 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax petrol price by +18.6 c/L (range +11.0–+26.2); it actually moved +21.0 c/L, leaving +2.4 c/L not explained by crude.
- Over the 13 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax petrol price by +34.2 c/L (range +18.6–+49.8); it actually moved +37.1 c/L, leaving +2.9 c/L not explained by crude.
What the numbers support, sentence by sentence
Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.
In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's pre-tax petrol price moved +7.8%, which is 3.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 0.8138500000000001
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 14.112980921553145
- t0_value
- 0.75505
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 7.787563737500839
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-02-28
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 3.432656255554604
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.058800000000000074
- change_pct_from_t0
- 7.787563737500839
- observation_gap_days
- 3
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.2686698456623136
- change_in_volatility_units
- 3.432656255554604
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 0.8138500000000001
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 14.112980921553145
- t0_value
- 0.75505
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 7.787563737500839
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-02-28
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 3.432656255554604
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.058800000000000074
- change_pct_from_t0
- 7.787563737500839
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 3
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.2686698456623136
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 3.432656255554604
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint79924f23de8202a710c8f8c4ba9d184da9ac516db1da61ac6ea134b978ee1392· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's pre-tax petrol price moved +27.8%, which is 12.3 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 0.96499
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 30.484742882474503
- t0_value
- 0.75505
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 27.804781140321833
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 12.25598391651586
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.20994000000000002
- change_pct_from_t0
- 27.804781140321833
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.2686698456623136
- change_in_volatility_units
- 12.25598391651586
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 0.96499
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 30.484742882474503
- t0_value
- 0.75505
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 27.804781140321833
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 12.25598391651586
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.20994000000000002
- change_pct_from_t0
- 27.804781140321833
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.2686698456623136
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 12.25598391651586
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint376d07555205db55eeb30b778de5eec04dae299ebc1a3d4168157952e4e5b39a· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's pre-tax petrol price moved +49.1%, which is 21.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.12611
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 47.93755674474557
- t0_value
- 0.75505
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 49.143765313555384
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 21.66192908479744
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.37105999999999995
- change_pct_from_t0
- 49.143765313555384
- observation_gap_days
- 2
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.2686698456623136
- change_in_volatility_units
- 21.66192908479744
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.12611
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 47.93755674474557
- t0_value
- 0.75505
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 49.143765313555384
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 21.66192908479744
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.37105999999999995
- change_pct_from_t0
- 49.143765313555384
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 2
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.2686698456623136
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 21.66192908479744
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprintd481aa94776ff6a96ac95c40f5be48ca7c352c270918d5703836c434d821b636· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +4.3%, which is 2.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.24287
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- -1.2367525682272114
- t0_value
- 1.19127
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 4.331511747966445
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-02-28
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 2.4978508481891613
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.05159999999999987
- change_pct_from_t0
- 4.331511747966445
- observation_gap_days
- 3
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7340954329225111
- change_in_volatility_units
- 2.4978508481891613
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.24287
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- -1.2367525682272114
- t0_value
- 1.19127
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 4.331511747966445
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-02-28
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 2.4978508481891613
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.05159999999999987
- change_pct_from_t0
- 4.331511747966445
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 3
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7340954329225111
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 2.4978508481891613
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprintd4ebe25d02d055f9d0985b066c635e541f56e182745565b4ea9c65b57a21c672· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +18.0%, which is 10.4 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.40514
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 5.677557138791882
- t0_value
- 1.19127
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 17.95310886700748
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 10.353010870198009
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.21387
- change_pct_from_t0
- 17.95310886700748
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7340954329225111
- change_in_volatility_units
- 10.353010870198009
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.40514
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 5.677557138791882
- t0_value
- 1.19127
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 17.95310886700748
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 10.353010870198009
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.21387
- change_pct_from_t0
- 17.95310886700748
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7340954329225111
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 10.353010870198009
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprintdc566bdb29c936d9cdc35f2e924c930062b92cea0f4c80ffdf7881360d24bdc5· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's tax-inclusive petrol price moved +33.1%, which is 19.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.58504
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 13.343079516882309
- t0_value
- 1.19127
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 33.05463916660371
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 19.061603265338146
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.39376999999999995
- change_pct_from_t0
- 33.05463916660371
- observation_gap_days
- 2
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7340954329225111
- change_in_volatility_units
- 19.061603265338146
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.58504
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 13.343079516882309
- t0_value
- 1.19127
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- change_pct
- 33.05463916660371
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 19.061603265338146
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.39376999999999995
- change_pct_from_t0
- 33.05463916660371
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 2
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7340954329225111
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 19.061603265338146
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint3ed74508cf6f9e50e169508f9d513052fe70dba17a37c7d838403e3769548f1e· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's pre-tax diesel price moved +7.3%, which is 3.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 0.8514600000000001
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 11.582516384333477
- t0_value
- 0.79318
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 7.34763861922894
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-02-28
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 3.5029110554465017
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.05828000000000011
- change_pct_from_t0
- 7.34763861922894
- observation_gap_days
- 3
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.0975806987175605
- change_in_volatility_units
- 3.5029110554465017
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 0.8514600000000001
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 11.582516384333477
- t0_value
- 0.79318
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 7.34763861922894
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-02-28
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 3.5029110554465017
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.05828000000000011
- change_pct_from_t0
- 7.34763861922894
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 3
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.0975806987175605
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 3.5029110554465017
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprintad912a73cee3f775956e258fa11e4c2edcd095bc923efea182d1f92699323504· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's pre-tax diesel price moved +41.7%, which is 19.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.12392
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 36.33391523393393
- t0_value
- 0.79318
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 41.69797523891173
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 19.879080344515685
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.33074000000000003
- change_pct_from_t0
- 41.69797523891173
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.0975806987175605
- change_in_volatility_units
- 19.879080344515685
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.12392
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 36.33391523393393
- t0_value
- 0.79318
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 41.69797523891173
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 19.879080344515685
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.33074000000000003
- change_pct_from_t0
- 41.69797523891173
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.0975806987175605
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 19.879080344515685
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint75fa76570b43c7d0f099af2428e9e7defad6c364e80ed44ea33cdbad92919f71· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's pre-tax diesel price moved +42.2%, which is 20.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.12757
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 36.665496404751806
- t0_value
- 0.79318
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 42.15814821352025
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 20.09846307190723
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.33438999999999997
- change_pct_from_t0
- 42.15814821352025
- observation_gap_days
- 2
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.0975806987175605
- change_in_volatility_units
- 20.09846307190723
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.12757
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 36.665496404751806
- t0_value
- 0.79318
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 42.15814821352025
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_PRETAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- pre-tax
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 20.09846307190723
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.33438999999999997
- change_pct_from_t0
- 42.15814821352025
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 2
- normal_volatility_pct
- 2.0975806987175605
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 20.09846307190723
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint74b1e925217e3d3f73d42adb4338b4ec59794a8e797b9ae4c4a6b566efaab7b3· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +4.3%, which is 2.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.25222
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- -1.2733150828339304
- t0_value
- 1.2001700000000002
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 4.336885607872212
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-02-28
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 2.49119254787489
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.05204999999999993
- change_pct_from_t0
- 4.336885607872212
- observation_gap_days
- 3
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7408873559660367
- change_in_volatility_units
- 2.49119254787489
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.25222
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- -1.2733150828339304
- t0_value
- 1.2001700000000002
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 4.336885607872212
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-02-28
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 2.49119254787489
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.05204999999999993
- change_pct_from_t0
- 4.336885607872212
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 3
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7408873559660367
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 2.49119254787489
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint7a934474947684fd366f4aa58c5f9d980d9f24f3fce6c37f398978a1752bcb27· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +28.8%, which is 16.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.54559
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 13.029449188286575
- t0_value
- 1.2001700000000002
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 28.780922702617115
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 16.532329104456203
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.34541999999999984
- change_pct_from_t0
- 28.780922702617115
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7408873559660367
- change_in_volatility_units
- 16.532329104456203
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.54559
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 13.029449188286575
- t0_value
- 1.2001700000000002
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 28.780922702617115
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 16.532329104456203
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.34541999999999984
- change_pct_from_t0
- 28.780922702617115
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 5
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7408873559660367
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 16.532329104456203
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprinte6f6119fd767107a2e6e00ce60e4f3d1809e072cd998faa4fc1f4f9b05815596· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Poland's tax-inclusive diesel price moved +29.6%, which is 17.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.55491
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 13.483830219090144
- t0_value
- 1.2001700000000002
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 29.557479357091058
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 16.978398548187112
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.35473999999999983
- change_pct_from_t0
- 29.557479357091058
- observation_gap_days
- 2
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7408873559660367
- change_in_volatility_units
- 16.978398548187112
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- unit
- EUR/L
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 1.55491
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- z_score
- 13.483830219090144
- t0_value
- 1.2001700000000002
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- change_pct
- 29.557479357091058
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- RETAIL_INCLTAX_PL_DIESEL
- series_kind
- tax-inclusive
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- week-to-week
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 16.978398548187112
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 0.35473999999999983
- change_pct_from_t0
- 29.557479357091058
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 2
- normal_volatility_pct
- 1.7408873559660367
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 16.978398548187112
Template
event.price_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint124cc2880a91e46b30cd2ff36d2242c0e60408b09697f08a70c7e6f0a5f1e9cc· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCOver the 4 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax petrol price by +18.6 c/L (range +11.0–+26.2); it actually moved +21.0 c/L, leaving +2.4 c/L not explained by crude.
about PolandCalculatedMediumWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2022-03-21
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2022-02-18
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.0235635525440549
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2022-02-21
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.20994000000000002
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.18637644745594512
- proxy_volatility_units
- -0.11680573781220037
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- -4.018000000000001
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.11038098175687631
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.262371913155013
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 180.79993207863203
Thresholds
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2022-03-21
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2022-02-18
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.0235635525440549
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2022-02-21
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.20994000000000002
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.18637644745594512
- proxy_volatility_units
- -0.11680573781220037
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- -4.018000000000001
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.11038098175687631
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.262371913155013
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 180.79993207863203
Template
event.crude_only.computedv1.1 · Fingerprint055ab0e62cb06e23667982abaff0bedce5781b669282958195fe95f807b115ee· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCOver the 13 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax petrol price by +34.2 c/L (range +18.6–+49.8); it actually moved +37.1 c/L, leaving +2.9 c/L not explained by crude.
about PolandCalculatedMediumWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2022-05-23
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2022-02-18
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.028619445367621676
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2022-02-21
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.37105999999999995
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.34244055463237827
- proxy_volatility_units
- 0.8092678270821386
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 27.837999999999997
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.18640999399629735
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.4984711152684548
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 180.79993207863203
Thresholds
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- petrol
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- EURO_SUPER_95
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_EURO_SUPER_95
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- GASOLINE
- proxy_to_date
- 2022-05-23
- pass_through_k
- 2
- proxy_from_date
- 2022-02-18
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.028619445367621676
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2022-02-21
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.37105999999999995
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.34244055463237827
- proxy_volatility_units
- 0.8092678270821386
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 27.837999999999997
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.18640999399629735
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.4984711152684548
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 180.79993207863203
Template
event.crude_only.computedv1.1 · Fingerprint78f348cc84ddee16e353e9cc3e6687c0f5b7aa8743bb0b97ccd5563e1aa5c56c· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCOver the 4 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax diesel price by +20.0 c/L (range +4.9–+35.1); it actually moved +33.1 c/L, leaving +13.0 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 22.2 $/bbl.
about PolandCalculatedMediumWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2022-03-21
- pass_through_k
- 1
- proxy_from_date
- 2022-02-18
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.13035290352088313
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2022-02-21
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.33074000000000003
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.2003870964791169
- proxy_volatility_units
- 12.233577860390142
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 22.231999999999996
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.049330961380224275
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.3514432315780084
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 8.450955055544933
Thresholds
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- weeks
- 4
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 4
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2022-03-21
- pass_through_k
- 1
- proxy_from_date
- 2022-02-18
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2022-03-21
- gap_eur_per_litre
- 0.13035290352088313
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2022-02-21
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.33074000000000003
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.2003870964791169
- proxy_volatility_units
- 12.233577860390142
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 22.231999999999996
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.049330961380224275
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.3514432315780084
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 8.450955055544933
Template
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.1 · Fingerprint2eabfa2c5f90db64b5ea97dd050693013dcef48e128990f7ecd02b939de228a0· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCOver the 13 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), crude costs alone would have moved Poland's pre-tax diesel price by +35.9 c/L (range +7.1–+64.6); it actually moved +33.4 c/L, leaving -2.4 c/L not explained by crude. Over the same period the US diesel crack spread, a proxy for the Atlantic product market and not a European margin, widened by 29.9 $/bbl.
about PolandCalculatedMediumWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2022-05-23
- pass_through_k
- 1
- proxy_from_date
- 2022-02-18
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.02427838230545526
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2022-02-21
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.33438999999999997
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.3586683823054552
- proxy_volatility_units
- 16.427727304969743
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 29.853999999999996
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.07133202362361435
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.6460047409872943
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 8.450955055544933
Thresholds
- source
- docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
- proxy_rule
- the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
- confidence_cap
- MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
- statement_weeks
- [4,13]
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- fuel
- diesel
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- weeks
- 13
- status
- COMPUTED
- country
- Poland
- fuel_type
- DIESEL
- gap_label
- NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- series_code
- CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_PL_DIESEL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- offset_weeks
- 13
- proxy_product
- DIESEL
- proxy_to_date
- 2022-05-23
- pass_through_k
- 1
- proxy_from_date
- 2022-02-18
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2022-05-23
- gap_eur_per_litre
- -0.02427838230545526
- series_source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","eia_brent_rbrte"]
- anchor_period_start
- 2022-02-21
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- actual_eur_per_litre
- 0.33438999999999997
- expected_eur_per_litre
- 0.3586683823054552
- proxy_volatility_units
- 16.427727304969743
- pass_through_sample_end
- 2026-09-14
- proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
- 29.853999999999996
- pass_through_sample_start
- 2023-09-25
- pass_through_window_label
- ROLLING_156W
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- expected_low_eur_per_litre
- 0.07133202362361435
- expected_high_eur_per_litre
- 0.6460047409872943
- proxy_normal_volatility_pct
- 8.450955055544933
Template
event.crude_only.computed_with_proxyv1.1 · Fingerprint4f75c08e2e5164dcd370488a970ede847d8fd71e674ad6124f611707337b8d30· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCDirect physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (0%–16%) for Poland in 2022-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.
about PolandCalculatedMediumWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- moderate
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2022-02
- status
- NO_OBSERVATION
- country
- Poland
- commodity
- crude
- dimension
- DIRECT_CRUDE
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- value_max_pct
- 15.6288491810273
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- RANGE_ONLY
- value_point_pct
- null
- observation_date
- 2022-02-01
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
- band_applied_to
- upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
- dependence_limited_max_pct
- 10
- dependence_moderate_max_pct
- 33
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- moderate
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2022-02
- status
- NO_OBSERVATION
- country
- Poland
- commodity
- crude
- dimension
- DIRECT_CRUDE
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- value_max_pct
- 15.6288491810273
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- RANGE_ONLY
- statement_topic
- hormuz
- value_point_pct
- null
- observation_date
- 2022-02-01
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.dependence.rangev1.1 · Fingerprint5a44e4ee308c87b6c0d48f5c5638954418c11cc7eab2a3266e5e88509e95cbe7· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCDirect physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (0%) for Poland in 2022-02.
about PolandCalculatedLowWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2022-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- commodity
- refined product
- dimension
- DIRECT_PRODUCT
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- value_max_pct
- 0
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- value_point_pct
- 0
- observation_date
- 2022-02-01
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
- band_applied_to
- upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
- dependence_limited_max_pct
- 10
- dependence_moderate_max_pct
- 33
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- band
- limited
- unit
- % of imported tonnes
- period
- 2022-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- commodity
- refined product
- dimension
- DIRECT_PRODUCT
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- value_max_pct
- 0
- value_min_pct
- 0
- exposure_status
- COMPUTED
- statement_topic
- hormuz
- value_point_pct
- 0
- observation_date
- 2022-02-01
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.dependence.pointv1.1 · Fingerprint5174b5854be897796a7f43174008eb56d1b5c569736429d6c6d202ddf355469f· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCAvailable evidence does not show a physical supply reduction: Poland's reported crude imports in 2022-02 were +9.5% against the mean of the previous 12 months.
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2022-02
- country
- Poland
- change_pct
- 9.477081408626528
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- partner_role
- ORIGIN
- value_tonnes
- 2151659
- baseline_months
- 12
- observation_date
- 2022-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
- baseline_mean_tonnes
- 1965396.75
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
- min_baseline_months
- 6
- baseline_months_used
- 12
- supply_reduction_pct
- -10
- supply_baseline_months
- 12
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2022-02
- country
- Poland
- change_pct
- 9.477081408626528
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- partner_role
- ORIGIN
- value_tonnes
- 2151659
- baseline_months
- 12
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2022-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- baseline_mean_tonnes
- 1965396.75
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.supply.no_reductionv1.1 · Fingerprintdcd7a8553f1ab46192b8e8e8bd5ab42b2cdb13bec646c88ae1fd3a246c78f420· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn 2022-02, Poland's oil stocks stood 0.7% below their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 97.0 days of cover (as published).
about PolandCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2022-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- direction
- below
- siec_code
- O4000
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- holder_type
- STK_CL
- series_code
- INVENTORY_PL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- days_of_cover
- 97
- metric_status
- COMPUTED
- mom_change_pct
- 0.03997251565486176
- observation_date
- 2022-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
- total_stock_tonnes
- 10418819
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- observation_gap_days
- 23
- trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
- 10494956.583333334
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
- -0.7254683021199413
- trailing_12m_observations
- 12
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
- band_applied_to
- the rounded figure printed in the sentence
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- trailing_window_months
- 12
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
- -0.7254683021199413
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
- -0.7
- inventory_material_deviation_pct
- 5
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- tonnes
- month
- 2022-02
- status
- OBSERVED
- country
- Poland
- direction
- below
- siec_code
- O4000
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- holder_type
- STK_CL
- series_code
- INVENTORY_PL
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- days_of_cover
- 97
- metric_status
- COMPUTED
- mom_change_pct
- 0.03997251565486176
- statement_topic
- event
- observation_date
- 2022-02-01
- series_source_ids
- ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
- total_stock_tonnes
- 10418819
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- days_of_cover_basis
- as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 23
- trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
- 10494956.583333334
- level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
- -0.7254683021199413
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- trailing_12m_observations
- 12
Template
event.inventory_level.in_linev1.1 · Fingerprint79cff5aa19c75d3f3b674ac55a8a17393b818eaf3adf187d07f7f31887e7d950· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCSummary of what can be checked here
Only part of the chain can be checked for Poland around Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (0–16%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.
about PolandUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- country
- Poland
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- dependence_band
- moderate
- dependence_range
- 0–16%
- channels_available
- ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
- supply_template_id
- event.supply.no_reduction
- channels_unavailable
- ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
- channels_total
- 8
- channels_available
- 4
- verdict_partial_min_channels
- 3
- verdict_assessable_min_channels
- 8
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- country
- Poland
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- country_iso2
- PL
- country_name
- Poland
- country_slug
- poland
- dependence_band
- moderate
- statement_topic
- event
- dependence_range
- 0–16%
- channels_available
- ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
- supply_template_id
- event.supply.no_reduction
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- channels_unavailable
- ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.verdict.partialv1.1 · Fingerprinte294da20c59a1f3a8d4e02ce09dc08750132f658eef0f445939adb2b684c7716· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +13.9%, which is 3.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 115.36
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 5.841150770454914
- t0_value
- 101.29
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 13.890808569454036
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2022-03-03
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 3.203825480890899
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 14.069999999999993
- change_pct_from_t0
- 13.890808569454036
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.335694516541323
- change_in_volatility_units
- 3.203825480890899
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 115.36
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 5.841150770454914
- t0_value
- 101.29
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 13.890808569454036
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 7
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2022-03-03
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 3.203825480890899
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 14.069999999999993
- change_pct_from_t0
- 13.890808569454036
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.335694516541323
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 3.203825480890899
Template
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint499e14f143cd15685ef1480ed3fa89cd45abe5f0647c7ec6a69249dfc87c1dd1· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +21.1%, which is 4.9 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 122.67
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 6.996054504576924
- t0_value
- 101.29
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 21.107710534109977
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2022-03-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 4.868357411616733
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 21.379999999999995
- change_pct_from_t0
- 21.107710534109977
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.335694516541323
- change_in_volatility_units
- 4.868357411616733
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 122.67
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 6.996054504576924
- t0_value
- 101.29
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 21.107710534109977
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 30
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2022-03-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 4.868357411616733
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 21.379999999999995
- change_pct_from_t0
- 21.107710534109977
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 1
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.335694516541323
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 4.868357411616733
Template
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint216049ee46b7aafc7c24ef4f74d592168c4ca36a76f9b7e30eb4f402126d0f04· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCIn the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +14.9%, which is 3.4 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.
about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficialWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 116.41
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 6.007039815711837
- t0_value
- 101.29
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 14.927436074637171
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- BRENT
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2022-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 3.4429169346887267
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 15.11999999999999
- change_pct_from_t0
- 14.927436074637171
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.335694516541323
- change_in_volatility_units
- 3.4429169346887267
Thresholds
- source
- v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
- volatility_definition
- sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
- unusual_move_volatility_units
- 2
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- unit
- $/BBL
- event
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- value
- 116.41
- status
- OBSERVED
- z_score
- 6.007039815711837
- t0_value
- 101.29
- benchmark
- Brent crude
- change_pct
- 14.927436074637171
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- offset_days
- 90
- series_code
- BRENT
- statement_topic
- event
- variation_label
- day-to-day
- observation_date
- 2022-05-25
- same_observation
- false
- volatility_units
- 3.4429169346887267
- series_source_ids
- ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
- change_abs_from_t0
- 15.11999999999999
- change_pct_from_t0
- 14.927436074637171
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- observation_gap_days
- 0
- normal_volatility_pct
- 4.335694516541323
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
- change_in_volatility_units
- 3.4429169346887267
Template
event.benchmark_move.outside_normalv1.1 · Fingerprint3c4d928f0edacc86e86f81949df4a6221c6a157e987b0435ccf81af9f53e267c· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCFreight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["freight rates"]
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
Thresholds
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["freight rates"]
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.channel.unavailablev1.1 · Fingerprint06b89c2e9e647323c15398c394cf050a39c9a42ef3b469967cce5fff091ed96a· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCRefined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refined-product benchmark"]
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
Thresholds
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refined-product benchmark"]
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.channel.unavailablev1.1 · Fingerprinteacf068451f42ad71340259d5f692acb03bf66b7a7d6f730ade5a819ff7d1005· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCWholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["wholesale prices"]
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
Thresholds
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["wholesale prices"]
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.channel.unavailablev1.1 · Fingerprint0a8ec24923eb853f8772aa729f8ec775267350a63bc1d8e64f27facfb62978a7· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCRefining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknownWhy this sentence
Variables
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refining margin"]
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- reason_code
- NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
Thresholds
- source
- CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
- any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
- true
Inputs
- t0
- 2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
- channels
- ["refining margin"]
- event_name
- Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
- event_slug
- ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
- event_type
- WAR
- source_ids
- ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
- reason_code
- NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
- statement_topic
- event
- calculation_version
- event_statements-1.0
- methodology_version
- 1.0
- study_calculation_version
- event_study-1.0
Template
event.channel.unavailablev1.1 · Fingerprint92e561b810be016411f6a7bbc96381cc8ebec1f6df6e0ae2fd7fc342f4dc1c9f· calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC
What this does not show
- It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
- A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
- Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
- Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.
How to read the labels
- OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
- VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
- CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
- Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
- Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
- Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
- UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.