Fuel Origin

Events / War

Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)

Dates
2022-02-24 → no end date recorded
Dated to
the day
Status
Ongoing
Scope
Ukraine

What the sources said

European Council, special meeting of 24 February 2022, document EUCO 18/22: "European Council conclusions on Russia's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine"; "The European Council condemns in the strongest possible terms the Russian Federation's unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine." The conclusions are dated and headed 24 February 2022, which is the date recorded here. This row is a timeline marker only; it makes no statement about prices.

IEA, EIA, European Commission, European Council and national legislators (cited per row)Official
Retrieved 2026-09-23 07:22 UTCRevision 1
Source documents (2)
CountryCountryGermanyFranceNetherlandsPolandFinlandEstoniaAustriaBelgiumBulgariaCroatiaCyprusCzechiaDenmarkGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalRomaniaSlovakiaSloveniaSpainSweden
FuelFuelDiesel (automotive gas oil)Petrol (Euro-super 95)Both fuels

Choosing a fuel keeps that fuel's series and the channels shared by every fuel - the crude benchmark, FX, crude imports and Hormuz exposure. It drops only the other fuel's series.

The event window

What each series was worth from -30 to 90 days around the event date, how far that is from the same series' level at the event date, and how big that move is against the series' own normal variation.

Netherlands, all fuels in this run. 18 series can be drawn; 11 cannot be seen at all and are shown as labelled empty panels below.

216 published readings, 18 offsets with nothing published within one period, and 143 offsets on series we cannot see at all. Every one of them is on this page.

Europe Brent spot FOB

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+90126.785.52022-01-25: 89.49 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-02-10: 96.37 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-02-17: 95.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-02-21: 98.95 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-02-23: 99.29 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-02-24, 101.3 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-02-25: 98.56 $ per barrel, used for offsets +1, +32022-03-03: 115.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-03-10: 114.5 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-03-25: 122.7 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 99.27 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-05-25: 116.4 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for Europe Brent spot FOB: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-2589.49-11.800-11.65%-2.69
−142022-02-1096.37-4.920-4.86%-1.12
−72022-02-1795.28-6.010-5.93%-1.37
−32022-02-2198.95-2.340-2.31%-0.53
−12022-02-2399.29-2.000-1.97%-0.46
T02022-02-24same print as T0101.30.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-2598.56-2.730-2.70%-0.62
+32022-02-2598.56-2.730-2.70%-0.62
+72022-03-03115.4+14.070+13.89%+3.20
+142022-03-10114.5+13.250+13.08%+3.02
+302022-03-25122.7+21.380+21.11%+4.87
+602022-04-2599.27-2.020-1.99%-0.46
+902022-05-25116.4+15.120+14.93%+3.44

One volatility unit for this series is 4.34%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (767 changes). It is not a significance test.

reported crude oil imports, all origins

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+904,623,4773,836,1182022-01-01: 4,523,275 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2022-02-01, 4,547,281 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-03-01: 3,912,314 tonnes, used for offsets +7, +14, +302022-04-01: 4,513,103 tonnes, used for offsets +602022-05-01: 4,159,026 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for reported crude oil imports, all origins: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-014,523,275-24,006-0.53%-0.04
−142022-02-01same print as T04,547,2810.0000.00%0.00
−72022-02-01same print as T04,547,2810.0000.00%0.00
−32022-02-01same print as T04,547,2810.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-01same print as T04,547,2810.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-01same print as T04,547,2810.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-01same print as T04,547,2810.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-01same print as T04,547,2810.0000.00%0.00
+72022-03-013,912,314-634,967-13.96%-1.12
+142022-03-013,912,314-634,967-13.96%-1.12
+302022-03-013,912,314-634,967-13.96%-1.12
+602022-04-014,513,103-34,178-0.75%-0.06
+902022-05-014,159,026-388,255-8.54%-0.69

One volatility unit for this series is 12.44%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate

Unit: US dollars per euroPublished: dailyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.1531.0562022-01-25: 1.127 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −302022-02-10: 1.144 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −142022-02-17: 1.137 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −72022-02-21: 1.134 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −32022-02-23: 1.134 US dollars per euro, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-02-24, 1.116 US dollars per euro, used for offsets T02022-02-25: 1.122 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +1, +32022-03-03: 1.108 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +72022-03-10: 1.108 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +142022-03-25: 1.100 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 1.075 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +602022-05-25: 1.066 US dollars per euro, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for ECB euro foreign exchange reference rate: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-251.127+0.011+0.94%+2.37
−142022-02-101.144+0.028+2.47%+6.23
−72022-02-171.137+0.021+1.85%+4.67
−32022-02-211.134+0.017+1.57%+3.95
−12022-02-231.134+0.018+1.62%+4.09
T02022-02-24same print as T01.1160.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-251.122+0.005+0.47%+1.20
+32022-02-251.122+0.005+0.47%+1.20
+72022-03-031.108-0.009-0.78%-1.96
+142022-03-101.108-0.008-0.71%-1.78
+302022-03-251.100-0.016-1.44%-3.64
+602022-04-251.075-0.042-3.74%-9.42
+902022-05-251.066-0.051-4.54%-11.45

One volatility unit for this series is 0.40%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (770 changes). It is not a significance test.

direct crude Hormuz exposure D1

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9019.520.002022-01-01: 1.164 to 9.009 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-02-01: 8.941 to 14.03 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-03-01: 3.307 to 14.63 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-04-01: 0 to 11.97 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-05-01: 6.146 to 17.43 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct crude Hormuz exposure D1: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-011.164–9.009not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-02-018.941–14.03not publishednot publishednot published
−72022-02-018.941–14.03not publishednot publishednot published
−32022-02-018.941–14.03not publishednot publishednot published
−12022-02-018.941–14.03not publishednot publishednot published
T02022-02-018.941–14.03not publishednot publishednot published
+12022-02-018.941–14.03not publishednot publishednot published
+32022-02-018.941–14.03not publishednot publishednot published
+72022-03-013.307–14.63not publishednot publishednot published
+142022-03-013.307–14.63not publishednot publishednot published
+302022-03-013.307–14.63not publishednot publishednot published
+602022-04-010–11.97not publishednot publishednot published
+902022-05-016.146–17.43not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2

Unit: % of imported tonnesPublished: monthlyUnknownUnknown
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9011.690.00same print as T0 — 2022-02-01, 0.6221 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-04-01: 1.441 % of imported tonnes, used for offsets +602022-01-01: 4.165 to 10.50 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-03-01: 2.982 to 4.308 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.2022-05-01: 2.328 to 4.317 % of imported tonnes. No point estimate is published, so no midpoint is drawn.

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits. The shaded band is the admissible range. No midpoint is drawn, because no point estimate is published.

Window table for direct refined-product Hormuz exposure D2: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-014.165–10.50not publishednot publishednot published
−142022-02-01same print as T00.62210.0000.00%not published
−72022-02-01same print as T00.62210.0000.00%not published
−32022-02-01same print as T00.62210.0000.00%not published
−12022-02-01same print as T00.62210.0000.00%not published
T02022-02-01same print as T00.62210.0000.00%not published
+12022-02-01same print as T00.62210.0000.00%not published
+32022-02-01same print as T00.62210.0000.00%not published
+72022-03-012.982–4.308not publishednot publishednot published
+142022-03-012.982–4.308not publishednot publishednot published
+302022-03-012.982–4.308not publishednot publishednot published
+602022-04-011.441+0.819+131.63%not published
+902022-05-012.328–4.317not publishednot publishednot published

No normal volatility is published for this series, so no change is expressed in volatility units. That is a missing input, not a zero.

inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through

Unit: days of coverPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9099.0887.922022-01-01: 98.00 days of cover, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2022-02-01, 96.00 days of cover, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-03-01: 93.00 days of cover, used for offsets +7, +14, +302022-04-01: 90.00 days of cover, used for offsets +602022-05-01: 89.00 days of cover, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for inventory exposure D7: published days of emergency stock cover, carried through: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-0198.00+2.000+2.08%+0.23
−142022-02-01same print as T096.000.0000.00%0.00
−72022-02-01same print as T096.000.0000.00%0.00
−32022-02-01same print as T096.000.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-01same print as T096.000.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-01same print as T096.000.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-01same print as T096.000.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-01same print as T096.000.0000.00%0.00
+72022-03-0193.00-3.000-3.13%-0.34
+142022-03-0193.00-3.000-3.13%-0.34
+302022-03-0193.00-3.000-3.13%-0.34
+602022-04-0190.00-6.000-6.25%-0.68
+902022-05-0189.00-7.000-7.29%-0.79

One volatility unit for this series is 9.21%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7310.4812022-01-24: 0.5049 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.5307 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.5419 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.5541 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.6491 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 0.7014 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 0.7064 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 0.6165 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.5049-0.049-8.88%-1.15
−142022-02-070.5307-0.023-4.22%-0.55
−72022-02-140.5419-0.012-2.19%-0.29
−32022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.6491+0.095+17.15%+2.23
+142022-03-070.7014+0.147+26.58%+3.45
+302022-03-210.7064+0.152+27.49%+3.57
+602022-04-250.6165+0.062+11.26%+1.46
+902022-05-230.6922+0.138+24.93%+3.24

One volatility unit for this series is 7.69%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled)

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.7310.4812022-01-24: 0.5049 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.5307 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.5419 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.5541 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.6491 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 0.7014 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 0.7064 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 0.6165 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 0.6922 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for crude cost per litre: Brent in EUR/L averaged over the bulletin week (refinery yield not modelled): value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.5049-0.049-8.88%-1.15
−142022-02-070.5307-0.023-4.22%-0.55
−72022-02-140.5419-0.012-2.19%-0.29
−32022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.55410.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.6491+0.095+17.15%+2.23
+142022-03-070.7014+0.147+26.58%+3.45
+302022-03-210.7064+0.152+27.49%+3.57
+602022-04-250.6165+0.062+11.26%+1.46
+902022-05-230.6922+0.138+24.93%+3.24

One volatility unit for this series is 7.69%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside

Unit: tonnesPublished: monthlyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9012,865,10910,314,7112022-01-01: 10,561,524 tonnes, used for offsets −30same print as T0 — 2022-02-01, 12,054,203 tonnes, used for offsets −14, −7, −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-03-01: 12,067,815 tonnes, used for offsets +7, +14, +302022-04-01: 12,618,296 tonnes, used for offsets +602022-05-01: 11,721,460 tonnes, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for national total oil stocks (Eurostat, commercial holders), with the published days of cover alongside: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-0110,561,524-1,492,679-12.38%-1.86
−142022-02-01same print as T012,054,2030.0000.00%0.00
−72022-02-01same print as T012,054,2030.0000.00%0.00
−32022-02-01same print as T012,054,2030.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-01same print as T012,054,2030.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-01same print as T012,054,2030.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-01same print as T012,054,2030.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-01same print as T012,054,2030.0000.00%0.00
+72022-03-0112,067,815+13,612+0.11%+0.02
+142022-03-0112,067,815+13,612+0.11%+0.02
+302022-03-0112,067,815+13,612+0.11%+0.02
+602022-04-0112,618,296+564,093+4.68%+0.70
+902022-05-0111,721,460-332,743-2.76%-0.41

One volatility unit for this series is 6.67%, the standard deviation of its own month-on-month percentage changes over the three years before the event (35 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902.2061.6442022-01-24: 1.698 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 1.729 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 1.748 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 1.746 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 1.788 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 1.972 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 2.152 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 1.997 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 1.954 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-241.698-0.048-2.75%-2.20
−142022-02-071.729-0.017-0.97%-0.78
−72022-02-141.748+0.002+0.11%+0.09
−32022-02-21same print as T01.7460.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T01.7460.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T01.7460.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T01.7460.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T01.7460.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-281.788+0.042+2.41%+1.92
+142022-03-071.972+0.226+12.94%+10.36
+302022-03-212.152+0.406+23.25%+18.61
+602022-04-251.997+0.251+14.38%+11.50
+902022-05-231.954+0.208+11.91%+9.53

One volatility unit for this series is 1.25%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+902.3221.9682022-01-24: 2.002 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 2.028 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 2.048 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 2.055 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 2.099 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 2.236 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 2.288 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 2.088 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 2.225 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price with taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-242.002-0.053-2.58%-2.40
−142022-02-072.028-0.027-1.31%-1.22
−72022-02-142.048-0.007-0.34%-0.32
−32022-02-21same print as T02.0550.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T02.0550.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T02.0550.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T02.0550.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T02.0550.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-282.099+0.044+2.14%+1.99
+142022-03-072.236+0.181+8.81%+8.19
+302022-03-212.288+0.233+11.34%+10.54
+602022-04-252.088+0.033+1.61%+1.49
+902022-05-232.225+0.170+8.27%+7.69

One volatility unit for this series is 1.08%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2870.8222022-01-24: 0.8669 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.8925 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.9082 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.9065 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.9412 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 1.093 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 1.242 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 1.225 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 1.189 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.8669-0.040-4.38%-1.95
−142022-02-070.8925-0.014-1.55%-0.69
−72022-02-140.9082+0.002+0.18%+0.08
−32022-02-21same print as T00.90650.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.90650.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.90650.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.90650.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.90650.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.9412+0.035+3.83%+1.71
+142022-03-071.093+0.187+20.60%+9.19
+302022-03-211.242+0.336+37.01%+16.51
+602022-04-251.225+0.318+35.13%+15.67
+902022-05-231.189+0.283+31.21%+13.92

One volatility unit for this series is 2.24%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedOfficial
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2230.7802022-01-24: 0.8228 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.8443 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.8609 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.8666 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.9030 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 1.016 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 1.059 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 1.067 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 1.180 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for Weekly Oil Bulletin price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.8228-0.044-5.05%-1.97
−142022-02-070.8443-0.022-2.58%-1.00
−72022-02-140.8609-0.006-0.67%-0.26
−32022-02-21same print as T00.86660.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.86660.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.86660.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.86660.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.86660.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.9030+0.036+4.20%+1.64
+142022-03-071.016+0.150+17.26%+6.73
+302022-03-211.059+0.193+22.22%+8.67
+602022-04-251.067+0.200+23.11%+9.01
+902022-05-231.180+0.313+36.17%+14.11

One volatility unit for this series is 2.56%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+900.9270.7472022-01-24: 0.8312 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 0.8365 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 0.8398 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 0.8395 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 0.8468 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 0.8787 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 0.9100 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 0.7721 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 0.7646 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-240.8312-0.008-0.99%-1.93
−142022-02-070.8365-0.003-0.35%-0.68
−72022-02-140.8398+0.000+0.04%+0.08
−32022-02-21same print as T00.83950.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T00.83950.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T00.83950.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T00.83950.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T00.83950.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-280.8468+0.007+0.87%+1.68
+142022-03-070.8787+0.039+4.67%+9.07
+302022-03-210.9100+0.070+8.39%+16.29
+602022-04-250.7721-0.067-8.03%-15.59
+902022-05-230.7646-0.075-8.92%-17.31

One volatility unit for this series is 0.52%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes

Unit: € per litrePublished: weeklyCalculatedMedium
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+901.2540.9962022-01-24: 1.179 € per litre, used for offsets −302022-02-07: 1.184 € per litre, used for offsets −142022-02-14: 1.187 € per litre, used for offsets −7same print as T0 — 2022-02-21, 1.188 € per litre, used for offsets −3, −1, T0, +1, +32022-02-28: 1.196 € per litre, used for offsets +72022-03-07: 1.220 € per litre, used for offsets +142022-03-21: 1.229 € per litre, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 1.021 € per litre, used for offsets +602022-05-23: 1.045 € per litre, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset. At least one print used was published outside the −30 to +90 window; the axis is extended to show where it actually sits.

Window table for total tax per litre: price with taxes minus price without taxes: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-241.179-0.009-0.77%-2.14
−142022-02-071.184-0.005-0.39%-1.09
−72022-02-141.187-0.001-0.10%-0.28
−32022-02-21same print as T01.1880.0000.00%0.00
−12022-02-21same print as T01.1880.0000.00%0.00
T02022-02-21same print as T01.1880.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-21same print as T01.1880.0000.00%0.00
+32022-02-21same print as T01.1880.0000.00%0.00
+72022-02-281.196+0.008+0.64%+1.78
+142022-03-071.220+0.031+2.64%+7.32
+302022-03-211.229+0.040+3.40%+9.42
+602022-04-251.021-0.167-14.08%-38.97
+902022-05-231.045-0.143-12.07%-33.43

One volatility unit for this series is 0.36%, the standard deviation of its own week-on-week percentage changes over the three years before the event (148 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9087.3712.822022-01-25: 22.61 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-02-10: 25.09 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-02-17: 23.41 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-02-18: 21.50 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-02-23: 20.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-02-24, 20.76 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-02-25: 22.06 $ per barrel, used for offsets +1, +32022-03-03: 37.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-03-10: 30.44 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-03-25: 55.41 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 80.15 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-05-25: 54.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US diesel spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-2522.61+1.846+8.89%+1.05
−142022-02-1025.09+4.332+20.87%+2.47
−72022-02-1723.41+2.650+12.76%+1.51
−32022-02-1821.50+0.742+3.57%+0.42
−12022-02-2320.03-0.730-3.52%-0.42
T02022-02-24same print as T020.760.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-2522.06+1.302+6.27%+0.74
+32022-02-2522.06+1.302+6.27%+0.74
+72022-03-0337.39+16.632+80.11%+9.48
+142022-03-1030.44+9.682+46.63%+5.52
+302022-03-2555.41+34.648+166.88%+19.75
+602022-04-2580.15+59.392+286.06%+33.85
+902022-05-2554.28+33.516+161.43%+19.10

One volatility unit for this series is 8.45%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (751 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9051.418.992022-01-25: 15.43 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-02-10: 17.95 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-02-17: 18.67 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-02-18: 19.03 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-02-23: 17.39 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-02-24, 17.36 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-02-25: 18.28 $ per barrel, used for offsets +1, +32022-03-03: 18.33 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-03-10: 13.10 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-03-25: 16.69 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 36.43 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-05-25: 47.31 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US gasoline spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-2515.43-1.934-11.14%-0.06
−142022-02-1017.95+0.594+3.42%+0.02
−72022-02-1718.67+1.306+7.52%+0.04
−32022-02-1819.03+1.666+9.60%+0.05
−12022-02-2317.39+0.026+0.15%+0.00
T02022-02-24same print as T017.360.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-2518.28+0.924+5.32%+0.03
+32022-02-2518.28+0.924+5.32%+0.03
+72022-03-0318.33+0.966+5.56%+0.03
+142022-03-1013.10-4.262-24.55%-0.14
+302022-03-2516.69-0.674-3.88%-0.02
+602022-04-2536.43+19.072+109.86%+0.61
+902022-05-2547.31+29.946+172.50%+0.95

One volatility unit for this series is 180.80%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (751 changes). It is not a significance test.

US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).

Unit: $ per barrelPublished: dailyCalculatedLow
T0−30−14T0+14+30+60+9086.115.052022-01-25: 13.79 $ per barrel, used for offsets −302022-02-10: 16.48 $ per barrel, used for offsets −142022-02-17: 13.25 $ per barrel, used for offsets −72022-02-18: 12.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets −32022-02-23: 12.89 $ per barrel, used for offsets −1same print as T0 — 2022-02-24, 12.99 $ per barrel, used for offsets T02022-02-25: 14.50 $ per barrel, used for offsets +1, +32022-03-03: 23.95 $ per barrel, used for offsets +72022-03-10: 16.37 $ per barrel, used for offsets +142022-03-25: 37.98 $ per barrel, used for offsets +302022-04-25: 78.26 $ per barrel, used for offsets +602022-05-25: 40.71 $ per barrel, used for offsets +90

x: days from the event date. Each mark sits at the date the figure was published, which is how the as-of rule answers an offset.

Window table for US proxy - not a European price: US jet spot minus Brent spot, USD per barrel. A proxy for the Atlantic-basin product market, NOT a measure of European refining margins (§H).: value, change from the event date and change in volatility units at each offset.
OffsetPrint usedValueΔ absΔ %Volatility units
−302022-01-2513.79+0.796+6.13%+0.04
−142022-02-1016.48+3.492+26.88%+0.15
−72022-02-1713.25+0.256+1.97%+0.01
−32022-02-1812.98-0.014-0.11%-0.00
−12022-02-2312.89-0.100-0.77%-0.00
T02022-02-24same print as T012.990.0000.00%0.00
+12022-02-2514.50+1.512+11.64%+0.07
+32022-02-2514.50+1.512+11.64%+0.07
+72022-03-0323.95+10.962+84.38%+0.48
+142022-03-1016.37+3.382+26.03%+0.15
+302022-03-2537.98+24.988+192.33%+1.10
+602022-04-2578.26+65.272+502.40%+2.88
+902022-05-2540.71+27.720+213.36%+1.22

One volatility unit for this series is 174.63%, the standard deviation of its own day-on-day percentage changes over the three years before the event (751 changes). It is not a significance test.

Not available: licence-blocked

A source exists and its licence does not permit us to republish it. These channels are not missing from the world, only from this page.

Arabian Gulf to north-west Europe dirty tanker rate

Tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

EU refined-product benchmark

EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

north-west Europe refining margin / crack spread

No published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

wholesale / rack price

Wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Not available: reason not classified

The API gave a reason code this page does not recognise. Its own sentence is shown unchanged below.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Neither the most recent three-year pass-through window nor the full sample has a COMPUTED estimate for this country and fuel, so there is no measured crude response to project. No substitute such as full pass-through is used.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

crude-only expected pre-tax price: the T0 bulletin-week price plus what the stored pass-through curves say crude alone would have done since

Neither the most recent three-year pass-through window nor the full sample has a COMPUTED estimate for this country and fuel, so there is no measured crude response to project. No substitute such as full pass-through is used.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Neither the most recent three-year pass-through window nor the full sample has a COMPUTED estimate for this country and fuel, so there is no measured crude response to project. No substitute such as full pass-through is used.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

not explained by crude: actual pre-tax change since T0 minus the crude-only expected change. Never attributed

Neither the most recent three-year pass-through window nor the full sample has a COMPUTED estimate for this country and fuel, so there is no measured crude response to project. No substitute such as full pass-through is used.

13 offsets in the window are affected.

Source
European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER)Unknown
Period 2022-01Updated 2026-09-25 14:09 UTCConfidenceUnknownMethodologyDownload CSV

T0 is 2022-02-24. The baseline window is -90 to -31 days. Offsets materialised: -30, -14, -7, -3, -1, 0, 1, 3, 7, 14, 30, 60, 90. Method 1.0, calculation event_study-1.0, computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC.

Is Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022) really the reason?

The question splits into dimensions that are measured separately and never added into one number. Each row says whether we can see that dimension at all, and gives one published figure where we can.

Of the eight price-transmission channels this site reports, 4 have data in this run Calculated - a count of the rows below, not a measurement.

Methodology §11.1 publishes the thresholds the sentences below use: all eight channels present for the full comparison, at least three for the claim to be testable here at all, and 2.0 volatility units for a move to be described as outside a series' normal variation. Those are published wording choices, not statistical tests.

Dimensions of exposure to Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), each with its status and one published figure.
DimensionStatusPublished figure, or why there is none
Direct crude exposure (D1)Share of imported crude whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only3.307–14.63 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-03) · no midpoint
Direct product exposure (D2)Share of imported refined product whose route requires the Strait of Hormuz.Range only2.982–4.308 % of imported tonnes at +30 d (2022-03) · no midpoint
Emergency stock cover (D7)Days of cover the published emergency stocks amount to. A buffer against a supply disruption, not a share of imports, and not a price channel.Observed93.00 days of cover at +30 d (published 2022-03-01)-3.13% from the level at T0 = -0.34 volatility units
Crude benchmarkThe quoted crude price European cargoes are priced against.Observed122.7 $ per barrel at +30 d (published 2022-03-25)+21.11% from the level at T0 = +4.87 volatility units
Refined-product benchmarkThe quoted product price refineries and wholesalers price against.UnavailableEU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.
Refining marginWhat refining a barrel into this product earned.UnavailableNo published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.
Freight ratesWhat it cost to ship the cargo.UnavailableTanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.
InventoriesStocks held, which absorb or amplify a supply change.Observed12,067,815 tonnes at +30 d (published 2022-03-01)+0.11% from the level at T0 = +0.02 volatility units
Wholesale pricesThe price between the refinery gate and the forecourt.UnavailableWholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.
Pump price before taxThe pump price with excise, VAT and other fuel taxes stripped out.Observed1.242 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-03-21)+37.01% from the level at T0 = +16.51 volatility units
Pump price with taxWhat a driver actually paid.Observed2.152 € per litre at +30 d (published 2022-03-21)+23.25% from the level at T0 = +18.61 volatility units

Physical exposure to the Strait of Hormuz and price exposure are different questions. A country with almost no direct physical exposure can still see its pump price move, because crude is priced globally - and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.

What the pump price did around this date

The decomposition page can be pinned to the weeks around the event date, so the pump move can be split into tax, input cost and the part the input cost does not account for.

Price decomposition, 2022-02-17 to 2022-03-26 →

The window is the published event date minus 7 days to plus 30 days. It is a window for looking, not a claim that the event caused what is inside it.

Actual vs crude-only: Netherlands, petrol (euro-super 95)

What the pre-tax price did from four weeks before to thirteen weeks after the event week, next to what it would have done had it followed only the crude input cost at the speed the stored pass-through estimate measures. The shaded difference is not explained by crude; it is not attributed to the event or to anything else. No fuel is selected, so petrol is shown.

What crude alone would have done is UNKNOWN for Netherlands, petrol (euro-super 95).

Neither the most recent three-year pass-through window nor the full sample has a COMPUTED estimate for this country and fuel, so there is no measured crude response to project. No substitute (such as full pass-through) is used.

No line is drawn: an unknown expected path is not a flat line at zero, and no substitute such as full pass-through is used.

  • What crude costs alone would have done to Netherlands' pre-tax petrol price over the 4 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022) is UNKNOWN: Neither the most recent three-year pass-through window nor the full sample has a COMPUTED estimate for this country and fuel (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5), so there is no measured crude response to project. No substitute such as full pass-through is used (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).

What the numbers support, sentence by sentence

Each sentence comes from a fixed template, chosen by published thresholds. Open “why this sentence” to see the numbers that selected it. None of this text is written by a language model, and none of it attributes cause.

  1. In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' pre-tax petrol price moved +4.2%, which is 1.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    0.903
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    7.272371033069962
    t0_value
    0.86664
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    4.1955137081141025
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.6363818439215916
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03636000000000006
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.1955137081141025
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5638965157787057
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.6363818439215916
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    0.903
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    7.272371033069962
    t0_value
    0.86664
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    4.1955137081141025
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.6363818439215916
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03636000000000006
    change_pct_from_t0
    4.1955137081141025
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5638965157787057
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.6363818439215916

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 6a4abb7c497e48542721485c49a976b3e020d7bb775da3abdd620c6e38798fc7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  2. In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' pre-tax petrol price moved +22.2%, which is 8.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.0592000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    19.841777031665
    t0_value
    0.86664
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    22.21914520446785
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.66616303260565
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.19256000000000018
    change_pct_from_t0
    22.21914520446785
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5638965157787057
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.66616303260565
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.0592000000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    19.841777031665
    t0_value
    0.86664
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    22.21914520446785
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    8.66616303260565
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.19256000000000018
    change_pct_from_t0
    22.21914520446785
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5638965157787057
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    8.66616303260565

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 8ec64151cd36d48825aafae8c6d3f871bcd19ba7a4f180c5456a2ac027e2c61c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  3. In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' pre-tax petrol price moved +36.2%, which is 14.1 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.1801300000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    29.57300793697932
    t0_value
    0.86664
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    36.173036093418276
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.108617828684796
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.31349000000000016
    change_pct_from_t0
    36.173036093418276
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5638965157787057
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.108617828684796
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.1801300000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    29.57300793697932
    t0_value
    0.86664
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    36.173036093418276
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    14.108617828684796
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.31349000000000016
    change_pct_from_t0
    36.173036093418276
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.5638965157787057
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    14.108617828684796

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint aad37661ac3498541f2089cf14136f37bd87e5694801f739894a74e3dc2d1f9f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  4. In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' tax-inclusive petrol price moved +2.1%, which is 2.0 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.099
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    7.945727954676041
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.141119221411194
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9910508329207635
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04400000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.141119221411194
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0753714500951683
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9910508329207635
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.099
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    7.945727954676041
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    2.141119221411194
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9910508329207635
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04400000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.141119221411194
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0753714500951683
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9910508329207635

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 93b380d93cde93a45b20a7a7015fea9f0ee682a550b0eb609644963c0b1edc80 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  5. In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' tax-inclusive petrol price moved +11.3%, which is 10.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.2880000000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    20.919745954103877
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    11.338199513382
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    10.54351918342131
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2330000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.338199513382
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0753714500951683
    change_in_volatility_units
    10.54351918342131
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.2880000000000003
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    20.919745954103877
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    11.338199513382
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    10.54351918342131
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.2330000000000001
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.338199513382
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0753714500951683
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    10.54351918342131

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 938c6599f7dc3353ab73fe88f14e1d1ea1425b7902f7f2dfdf40232bd9b51167 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  6. In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' tax-inclusive petrol price moved +8.3%, which is 7.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.225
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    16.595073287627923
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    8.272506082725057
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.692696399921121
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.16999999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.272506082725057
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0753714500951683
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.692696399921121
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.225
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    16.595073287627923
    t0_value
    2.055
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    change_pct
    8.272506082725057
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    7.692696399921121
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.16999999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    8.272506082725057
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.0753714500951683
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    7.692696399921121

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint a2aeae8356b679212ff06dbac5eac6ec173b020096c45edef0e6656a333ce9b0 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  7. In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' pre-tax diesel price moved +3.8%, which is 1.7 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    0.94123
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    4.757933893840286
    t0_value
    0.90652
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    3.8289282089749834
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.708424069278938
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03471000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.8289282089749834
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.241204790910626
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.708424069278938
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    0.94123
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    4.757933893840286
    t0_value
    0.90652
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    3.8289282089749834
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.708424069278938
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.03471000000000002
    change_pct_from_t0
    3.8289282089749834
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.241204790910626
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.708424069278938

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 10d70e728d292732f4a9d75b085d72415387888c07ee79acbbdc463080e05bcb · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  8. In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' pre-tax diesel price moved +37.0%, which is 16.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.2420499999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    16.32057616830839
    t0_value
    0.90652
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    37.01297268675814
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    16.51476600302972
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3355299999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    37.01297268675814
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.241204790910626
    change_in_volatility_units
    16.51476600302972
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.2420499999999999
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    16.32057616830839
    t0_value
    0.90652
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    37.01297268675814
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    16.51476600302972
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.3355299999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    37.01297268675814
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.241204790910626
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    16.51476600302972

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3b62ce2b8b1110890cfd2c74b0c90903cef13b921e67263e31f067d2704fdabc · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  9. In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' pre-tax diesel price moved +31.2%, which is 13.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.1894200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    14.297632670850595
    t0_value
    0.90652
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    31.207254114636207
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    13.924320633794629
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.28290000000000015
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.207254114636207
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.241204790910626
    change_in_volatility_units
    13.924320633794629
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.1894200000000001
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    14.297632670850595
    t0_value
    0.90652
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    31.207254114636207
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_PRETAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    pre-tax
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    13.924320633794629
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.28290000000000015
    change_pct_from_t0
    31.207254114636207
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    2.241204790910626
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    13.924320633794629

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d060ecf5b4a17740be0300abbceafccb13549a3110b38555d1d29a734813e20d · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  10. In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' tax-inclusive diesel price moved +2.4%, which is 1.9 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — within that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.788
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    4.4635950433516784
    t0_value
    1.746
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.4054982817869437
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9249622152534438
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04200000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.4054982817869437
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.24963402539838
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9249622152534438
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.788
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    4.4635950433516784
    t0_value
    1.746
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    2.4054982817869437
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-02-28
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    1.9249622152534438
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.04200000000000004
    change_pct_from_t0
    2.4054982817869437
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    3
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.24963402539838
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    1.9249622152534438

    Template event.price_move.within_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d557d01ff7817d4221de3aea6bc111e5f2a30b9d56676dca1b96e73c186dd713 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  11. In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' tax-inclusive diesel price moved +23.3%, which is 18.6 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.152
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    15.022481124781486
    t0_value
    1.746
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    23.25315005727378
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    18.60796808078328
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.40600000000000014
    change_pct_from_t0
    23.25315005727378
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.24963402539838
    change_in_volatility_units
    18.60796808078328
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    2.152
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    15.022481124781486
    t0_value
    1.746
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    23.25315005727378
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-03-21
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    18.60796808078328
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.40600000000000014
    change_pct_from_t0
    23.25315005727378
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    5
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.24963402539838
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    18.60796808078328

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint d163203750d6b67d34f570bbb1f2d878bb0045358fe1cda665168f7eb44d076e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  12. In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), Netherlands' tax-inclusive diesel price moved +11.9%, which is 9.5 times its normal week-to-week variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.954
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    9.27891122334439
    t0_value
    1.746
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.912943871706757
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    9.533146208874188
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.20799999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.912943871706757
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.24963402539838
    change_in_volatility_units
    9.533146208874188
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (week-to-week)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    unit
    EUR/L
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    1.954
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    z_score
    9.27891122334439
    t0_value
    1.746
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    change_pct
    11.912943871706757
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    RETAIL_INCLTAX_NL_DIESEL
    series_kind
    tax-inclusive
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    week-to-week
    observation_date
    2022-05-23
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    9.533146208874188
    series_source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    0.20799999999999996
    change_pct_from_t0
    11.912943871706757
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    2
    normal_volatility_pct
    1.24963402539838
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    9.533146208874188

    Template event.price_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 19b524c6d32dcd3d51672744f382ca63fcf0c9c6be045f898a3d858cf7291300 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  13. What crude costs alone would have done to Netherlands' pre-tax petrol price over the 4 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022) is UNKNOWN: Neither the most recent three-year pass-through window nor the full sample has a COMPUTED estimate for this country and fuel (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5), so there is no measured crude response to project. No substitute such as full pass-through is used (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).

    about NetherlandsUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    UNKNOWN
    country
    Netherlands
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    reason_code
    NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    proxy_product
    null
    gap_eur_per_litre
    null
    actual_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_eur_per_litre
    null
    proxy_volatility_units
    null
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    null
    pass_through_window_label
    null
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    null
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    petrol
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    UNKNOWN
    country
    Netherlands
    fuel_type
    EURO_SUPER_95
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_NL_EURO_SUPER_95
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    proxy_product
    null
    statement_topic
    event
    gap_eur_per_litre
    null
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_eur_per_litre
    null
    proxy_volatility_units
    null
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    null
    pass_through_window_label
    null
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    null

    Template event.crude_only.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 57b67f346a9ca37930627c20c42b03936bd63676d3e6a302f4d535eb00c32b28 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  14. What crude costs alone would have done to Netherlands' pre-tax diesel price over the 4 weeks after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022) is UNKNOWN: Neither the most recent three-year pass-through window nor the full sample has a COMPUTED estimate for this country and fuel (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §4.5), so there is no measured crude response to project. No substitute such as full pass-through is used (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.2).

    about NetherlandsUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    UNKNOWN
    country
    Netherlands
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    reason_code
    NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_NL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    proxy_product
    null
    gap_eur_per_litre
    null
    actual_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_eur_per_litre
    null
    proxy_volatility_units
    null
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    null
    pass_through_window_label
    null
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    null
    Thresholds
    source
    docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.7; horizons are a v1 choice of this module
    proxy_rule
    the proxy sentence is added only when the US crack spread proxy moved by at least UNUSUAL_MOVE_VOLATILITY_UNITS of its normal day-to-day variation over the same weeks
    confidence_cap
    MEDIUM (docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §7.5)
    statement_weeks
    [4,13]
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    fuel
    diesel
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    weeks
    4
    status
    UNKNOWN
    country
    Netherlands
    fuel_type
    DIESEL
    gap_label
    NOT_EXPLAINED_BY_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_COMPUTED_PASS_THROUGH_ESTIMATE
    series_code
    CRUDE_ONLY_EXPECTED_NL_DIESEL
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    proxy_product
    null
    statement_topic
    event
    gap_eur_per_litre
    null
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    actual_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_eur_per_litre
    null
    proxy_volatility_units
    null
    proxy_change_usd_per_bbl
    null
    pass_through_window_label
    null
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    expected_low_eur_per_litre
    null
    expected_high_eur_per_litre
    null

    Template event.crude_only.unknown v1.1 · Fingerprint 64f80cc0aae7c86baaf94d0492417e9182752a0cca3b7c5325e6437bbdeb9bad · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  15. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (9%–14%) for Netherlands in 2022-02. No point estimate is published: the origins concerned export from both inside and outside the Persian Gulf and the split per period is not public.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedMedium
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Netherlands
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    value_max_pct
    14.0326801884467
    value_min_pct
    8.94082010766434
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    moderate
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-02
    status
    NO_OBSERVATION
    country
    Netherlands
    commodity
    crude
    dimension
    DIRECT_CRUDE
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    value_max_pct
    14.0326801884467
    value_min_pct
    8.94082010766434
    exposure_status
    RANGE_ONLY
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    null
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.range v1.1 · Fingerprint 05776ab2fbd0e40d9282ebe572d89eebdaaa480027bac80b9bc7c4e9155fdd3e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  16. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked refined product was limited (1%) for Netherlands in 2022-02.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedLow
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    value_max_pct
    0.622129170712723
    value_min_pct
    0.622129170712723
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    value_point_pct
    0.622129170712723
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md §9 publishes no bands
    band_applied_to
    upper bound of the range (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md §3.2: a range has no meaningful midpoint)
    dependence_limited_max_pct
    10
    dependence_moderate_max_pct
    33
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    band
    limited
    unit
    % of imported tonnes
    period
    2022-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    commodity
    refined product
    dimension
    DIRECT_PRODUCT
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    value_max_pct
    0.622129170712723
    value_min_pct
    0.622129170712723
    exposure_status
    COMPUTED
    statement_topic
    hormuz
    value_point_pct
    0.622129170712723
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.dependence.point v1.1 · Fingerprint cef8d0d8ff8706c5cc7a494cabfabb4316bcd35acb1217747104da8d6954fd62 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  17. Available evidence does not show a physical supply reduction: Netherlands' reported crude imports in 2022-02 were +3.6% against the mean of the previous 12 months.

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-02
    country
    Netherlands
    change_pct
    3.5937347470955316
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    4547281
    baseline_months
    12
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    4389532.833333333
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no cut-off
    min_baseline_months
    6
    baseline_months_used
    12
    supply_reduction_pct
    -10
    supply_baseline_months
    12
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-02
    country
    Netherlands
    change_pct
    3.5937347470955316
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    partner_role
    ORIGIN
    value_tonnes
    4547281
    baseline_months
    12
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm"]
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    baseline_mean_tonnes
    4389532.833333333
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.supply.no_reduction v1.1 · Fingerprint bdb484db16150547105e30b4410e685f7012ed1eb34a520fb477ba5d863a544e · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  18. In 2022-02, Netherlands' oil stocks stood 3.2% below their trailing 12-month mean — inside the 5% either side that this site reads as in line with it, with 96.0 days of cover (as published).

    about NetherlandsCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_NL
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    days_of_cover
    96
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    14.133178128459491
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    12054203
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    observation_gap_days
    23
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    12454815.75
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -3.216528915732856
    trailing_12m_observations
    12
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/METHODOLOGY.md publishes no band
    band_applied_to
    the rounded figure printed in the sentence
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published (Eurostat nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); never stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    trailing_window_months
    12
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_raw
    -3.216528915732856
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct_shown
    -3.2
    inventory_material_deviation_pct
    5
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    tonnes
    month
    2022-02
    status
    OBSERVED
    country
    Netherlands
    direction
    below
    siec_code
    O4000
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    holder_type
    STK_CL
    series_code
    INVENTORY_NL
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    days_of_cover
    96
    metric_status
    COMPUTED
    mom_change_pct
    14.133178128459491
    statement_topic
    event
    observation_date
    2022-02-01
    series_source_ids
    ["eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm"]
    total_stock_tonnes
    12054203
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    days_of_cover_basis
    as published by Eurostat (nrg_stk_oem, STK_EUE_DIR); not stocks divided by consumption (docs/HORMUZ_METHOD.md D7)
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    23
    trailing_12m_mean_tonnes
    12454815.75
    level_vs_trailing_12m_pct
    -3.216528915732856
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    trailing_12m_observations
    12

    Template event.inventory_level.in_line v1.1 · Fingerprint c15b30e83451cdf9ee1f8db4b44b77c48c39c30c2bafba35bf7202cbaacdcaa7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  19. Summary of what can be checked here

    Only part of the chain can be checked for Netherlands around Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022): 4 of the 8 series the method compares are available (crude benchmark, inventories, pre-tax pump price and pump price with tax), while refined-product benchmark, refining margin, freight rates and wholesale prices are not. Any claim that rests on the missing links cannot be tested here. Direct physical dependence on Hormuz-linked crude was moderate (9–14%) over the period covered. This page describes what each series did around the event date. It is not a finding about cause: no causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in the same window may have moved for other reasons.

    about NetherlandsUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    country
    Netherlands
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    dependence_band
    moderate
    dependence_range
    9–14%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; the channel list is docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.3
    channels_total
    8
    channels_available
    4
    verdict_partial_min_channels
    3
    verdict_assessable_min_channels
    8
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    country
    Netherlands
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    country_iso2
    NL
    country_name
    Netherlands
    country_slug
    netherlands
    dependence_band
    moderate
    statement_topic
    event
    dependence_range
    9–14%
    channels_available
    ["crude benchmark","inventories","pre-tax pump price","pump price with tax"]
    supply_template_id
    event.supply.no_reduction
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    channels_unavailable
    ["refined-product benchmark","refining margin","freight rates","wholesale prices"]
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.verdict.partial v1.1 · Fingerprint 2905938fe8efab45aefa5b01e6f7c87627e6f6553debb3b731e969d03c39218f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  20. In the 7 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +13.9%, which is 3.2 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    115.36
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    5.841150770454914
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    13.890808569454036
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-03-03
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.203825480890899
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    14.069999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    13.890808569454036
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.203825480890899
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    115.36
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    5.841150770454914
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    13.890808569454036
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    7
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-03-03
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.203825480890899
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    14.069999999999993
    change_pct_from_t0
    13.890808569454036
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.203825480890899

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 499e14f143cd15685ef1480ed3fa89cd45abe5f0647c7ec6a69249dfc87c1dd1 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  21. In the 30 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +21.1%, which is 4.9 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    122.67
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    6.996054504576924
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    21.107710534109977
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-03-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.868357411616733
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.379999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    21.107710534109977
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.868357411616733
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    122.67
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    6.996054504576924
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    21.107710534109977
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    30
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-03-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    4.868357411616733
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    21.379999999999995
    change_pct_from_t0
    21.107710534109977
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    1
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    4.868357411616733

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 216049ee46b7aafc7c24ef4f74d592168c4ca36a76f9b7e30eb4f402126d0f04 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  22. In the 90 days after Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022), the Brent crude benchmark moved +14.9%, which is 3.4 times its normal day-to-day variation over the previous three years — outside that range.

    about the event as a wholeCalculatedOfficial
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    116.41
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    6.007039815711837
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    14.927436074637171
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.4429169346887267
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    15.11999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    14.927436074637171
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.4429169346887267
    Thresholds
    source
    v1 choice of this module; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.2 requires the comparison but publishes no cut-off
    volatility_definition
    sample sd of period-over-period % changes over the 3 years before T0, at the series' own frequency (day-to-day)
    unusual_move_volatility_units
    2
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    unit
    $/BBL
    event
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    value
    116.41
    status
    OBSERVED
    z_score
    6.007039815711837
    t0_value
    101.29
    benchmark
    Brent crude
    change_pct
    14.927436074637171
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    offset_days
    90
    series_code
    BRENT
    statement_topic
    event
    variation_label
    day-to-day
    observation_date
    2022-05-25
    same_observation
    false
    volatility_units
    3.4429169346887267
    series_source_ids
    ["eia_brent_rbrte"]
    change_abs_from_t0
    15.11999999999999
    change_pct_from_t0
    14.927436074637171
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    observation_gap_days
    0
    normal_volatility_pct
    4.335694516541323
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0
    change_in_volatility_units
    3.4429169346887267

    Template event.benchmark_move.outside_normal v1.1 · Fingerprint 3c4d928f0edacc86e86f81949df4a6221c6a157e987b0435ccf81af9f53e267c · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  23. Freight rates reaction cannot be assessed: tanker freight rates are licensed such that public display, onward passing and derived data are all expressly prohibited, verified verbatim, and no open institution publishes a tanker rate.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["freight rates"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_FREIGHT_SOURCE
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 06b89c2e9e647323c15398c394cf050a39c9a42ef3b469967cce5fff091ed96a · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  24. Refined-product benchmark reaction cannot be assessed: EU refined-product benchmarks (Platts / Argus) are proprietary with no redistribution grant. US crack spreads are not a valid EU proxy and are not substituted.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refined-product benchmark"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_PRODUCT_BENCHMARK
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint eacf068451f42ad71340259d5f692acb03bf66b7a7d6f730ade5a819ff7d1005 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  25. Wholesale prices reaction cannot be assessed: wholesale / rack price series are proprietary with no redistribution grant.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["wholesale prices"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_LICENSED_WHOLESALE_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 0a8ec24923eb853f8772aa729f8ec775267350a63bc1d8e64f27facfb62978a7 · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

  26. Refining margin reaction cannot be assessed: no published refining-margin series is held, and computing a margin ourselves would need the licensed EU product benchmarks, which may not be republished.

    about the event as a wholeUnknownUnknown
    Why this sentence
    Variables
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    Thresholds
    source
    CLAUDE.md §1; docs/PRICE_MODEL.md §2.1 (a series with no licensed source is visible as a gap)
    any_missing_channel_is_disclosed
    true
    Inputs
    t0
    2022-02-24T00:00:00+00:00
    channels
    ["refining margin"]
    event_name
    Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)
    event_slug
    ru-invasion-ukraine-2022
    event_type
    WAR
    source_ids
    ["ec_weekly_oil_bulletin","ecb_exr_reference_rates","eia_brent_rbrte","eia_us_product_spot","eurostat_nrg_stk_oem","eurostat_nrg_stk_oilm","eurostat_nrg_ti_oilm","reference_hormuz_v1"]
    reason_code
    NO_REFINERY_MARGIN_SERIES
    statement_topic
    event
    calculation_version
    event_statements-1.0
    methodology_version
    1.0
    study_calculation_version
    event_study-1.0

    Template event.channel.unavailable v1.1 · Fingerprint 92e561b810be016411f6a7bbc96381cc8ebec1f6df6e0ae2fd7fc342f4dc1c9f · calculation event_statements-1.0 · computed 2026-09-25 14:09 UTC

What this does not show

  • It does not show that the event caused anything. No causal design is published for this site, and a series that moved in this window may have moved for other reasons.
  • A change in volatility units is not a significance test, and neither is a z-score. They measure different things and are not interchangeable.
  • Channels with no licensed or loaded source are shown as empty panels, not as flat lines. “We cannot see this” is not “this did not move”.
  • Nothing is interpolated. Where several offsets resolve to one published figure, that is what the publisher printed, and the change against the event date is zero because it is the same number.

Netherlands: supply, refineries and pump prices →

How to read the labels

  • OfficialReported directly by an official authority.
  • VerifiedReported by a third party we have verified against a primary record.
  • CalculatedComputed by us from reported inputs. The method is published on the methodology page.
  • Inferred · highNot reported. Inferred from at least two independent physical records.
  • Inferred · mediumNot reported. Inferred from strong indirect evidence, with no explicit confirmation.
  • Inferred · lowNot reported. Plausible from infrastructure or movement data only. Do not read as fact.
  • UnknownNo defensible public evidence establishes this. We are not guessing, and this is not a measurement of zero.