Fuel Origin

Finland

Petrol, June 2026 — crude behind it: 65% Norway · 14% United States · 9% Denmark. None of that crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Estimated
Source & method
Source
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
  • EIA, IEA and terminal operators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin Hormuz route classification and country bounds, methodology v1.0
Every source, with links and licences
Period
June 2026
Method
How this figure is made
  • Reported (solid)
  • Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
  • Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
  • Cannot be traced (hatched)
  • Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Assumptions
  1. 1

    Finland: petrol available in June 2026

    Everything refined in the country plus everything imported.

  2. 2

    Where that fuel came from

    • Also:
    • Refined in Finland 87%
    • Sweden 13%

    Finland's refineries ran on (going by its crude imports, April–June 2026)

    Sweden's refineries ran on (going by its crude imports, April–June 2026)

  3. 3

    The crude behind Finland's petrol

  • Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
  • Each country's refineries are assumed to run on its crude-import mix over the latest three months.
  • The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
  • The crude origin is the producing country the statistics report, not the loading terminal, so the Hormuz answer is a range wherever a producer loads both inside and outside the Persian Gulf.

In June 2026, most petrol available in Finland was refined in Finland (87%), followed by Sweden (13%).

Finland's refineries ran on crude from Norway (68%), the United States (13%) and Denmark (10%), going by its crude imports in April–June 2026.

Taken together, an estimated 65% of the crude behind Finland's petrol came from Norway, 14% from the United States and 9% from Denmark; every share was traced to a reported origin.

None of the crude traced behind Finland's petrol is estimated to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz: every origin traced loads outside the Persian Gulf.

This is an estimate, not a reported figure: it assumes exports are drawn proportionally from every source and that each country's refineries run on its crude-import mix, and it looks back only one country.

Hormuz and the pump price in Finland

Calculated
  • None of the crude behind Finland's petrol in June 2026 could have passed through Hormuz.
  • Since 28 Feb 2026, petrol at the pump went +38.0%; Brent (in US dollars) went +61.5% (week of 23 Feb 2026 to week of 21 Sep 2026).
  • 51% of the petrol pump price is tax (week of 21 Sep 2026).

Is Hormuz really the reason? — the EU-wide picture →

Source & method
Source
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
  • EIA, IEA and terminal operators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin Hormuz route classification and country bounds, methodology v1.0
  • European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER) — Weekly Oil Bulletin - retail fuel prices with and without taxes
  • U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (petroleum spot prices)
Every source, with links and licences
Method
How this figure is made
  • Strait of Hormuz: the upper end of the headline’s estimate for June 2026, the same figure as in the sentence above; no new figure is made here.
  • Pump price: Weekly Oil Bulletin, petrol including tax, week of 23 Feb 2026 (€1.713 per litre) and week of 21 Sep 2026 (€2.364 per litre). Brent: EIA daily spot price, the first print dated in each of those weeks (23 Feb 2026: 71.9; 21 Sep 2026: 116.15; US dollars per barrel). Each change is worked out in the currency it is published in; no exchange rate is applied. The start week is the one containing the event date of Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026) (28 Feb 2026), the event the Strait of Hormuz page leads with; the end week is the latest week with both prices.
  • Tax share: the pump price split into tax and price before tax for the week of 21 Sep 2026 (Weekly Oil Bulletin prices and published tax rates), as on the pump price page.
  • The three figures are shown side by side, each on its own; no link between them is drawn here.

Go deeper for Finland

Crude origins

Calculated

1 refinery — Neste Porvoo Refinery (Kilpilahti), 10 Mt/a.

In April 2026, three countries supplied all crude imports.

Share of crude imports by origin, to July 2026

3-month average of monthly shares, over the months with figures in each window (published and estimated months averaged separately)
Jan 2025Jul 20260%25%50%75%100%Norway 72.0% (est.)United States 17.7% (est.)
  • Norway
  • United States
  • United Kingdom
  • Senegal
  • Denmark
  • Guyana
  • Other origins
  • Origin not published
  • Estimated from customs euro values, by country shipped from

Striped months (May 2024, September 2024, March 2025 to March 2026 and May 2026 to July 2026): Finland's energy statistics do not publish crude imports for these months. They are estimated from the euro values in the customs statistics, by the country the crude was shipped from, which may not be where it was produced. Inference record #8; how these are estimated.

Share of crude imports, April 2026 (latest published month)

0%50%100%NorwayDenmarkUnited States59.4%30.0%10.6%

Since January 2023, comparing published months only: Denmark +10.0 pt, United States −7.8 pt.

Share of crude imports, April 2026: all origins
Country of originShareTonnes
Norway59%511,000
Denmark30%258,000
United States11%91,000
Source & method
Source
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
  • Refinery operators and national regulators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin curated refinery reference list
Every source, with links and licences
Period
April 2026
Method
How this figure is made
Download
Download CSV

Tonnes for 43 months between January 2023 and July 2026 are estimated from the euro values published in Eurostat's customs trade statistics (Comext DS-045409), because the tonnes were not published. How these are estimated

Inference record behind these estimates: #8.

Product origins

Calculated

Petrol imports, June 2026: Sweden 100%.

Share of petrol imports by country last shipped from, to June 2026

3-month average of monthly shares, over the months with figures in each window
Dec 2025Jun 20260%25%50%75%100%Not publishedSweden 100.0%
  • Sweden
  • Not published, no estimate

Share of petrol imports, June 2026 (published)

0%50%100%Sweden100.0%
Share of petrol imports, June 2026 (published): all countries last shipped from
Country last shipped fromShareTonnes
Sweden100%47,000
Source & method
Source
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
Every source, with links and licences
Period
June 2026
Method
How this figure is made
Download
Download CSV

Tonnes for 43 months between January 2023 and July 2026 are estimated from the euro values published in Eurostat's customs trade statistics (Comext DS-045409), because the tonnes were not published. How these are estimated

Stocks & days of cover

Official

178 days of emergency stock cover in July 2026.

Closing stocks: 4,354,000 tonnes, +7.3% against the 12-month average.

Closing stocks, to July 2026

Jan 2025Jul 20263.5M4.0M4.5M5.0M
  • Closing stocks
  • 12-month average

Days of cover, to July 2026

Not publishedNot publishedJan 2025Jul 2026170175180185190
  • Not published
Source & method
Source
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Emergency oil stocks in days equivalent - monthly data
  • Eurostat (European Commission) — Stock levels for oil products - monthly data
Every source, with links and licences
Period
July 2026
Method
How this figure is made
Which method the member state used
  • Stock calculation method: method 2
  • Minimum obligation method: method 1
  • Days calculation method: method 1
Download
Download CSV

Recent events

Official
Source & method
Source
  • International Energy Agency — Event timeline, cited per event
  • US Energy Information Administration — Event timeline, cited per event
  • European Commission — Event timeline, cited per event
  • European Council — Event timeline, cited per event
  • National legislators — Event timeline, cited per event
Every source, with links and licences
Method
How this figure is made