Finland
Road diesel, June 2026 — crude behind it: 65% Norway · 14% United States · 9% Denmark. None of that crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- EIA, IEA and terminal operators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin Hormuz route classification and country bounds, methodology v1.0
- Period
- June 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
Crude behind it (estimated)
Last shipped from
Finland's road diesel
Crude behind it (estimated)
- Norway294 kt (est. 65%)
- United States61 kt (est. 14%)
- Denmark39 kt (est. 9%)
- Senegal23 kt (est. 5%)
- Canada14 kt (est. 3%)
- United Kingdom7.0 kt (est. 2%)
- Guyana6.1 kt (est. 1%)
- Other crude origins5.8 kt (est. 1%)
- Smaller flows: no crude dataless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude origin not reportedless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
- Smaller flows: crude not from importsless than 0.1 kt (<1%)
Last shipped from
- Reported (solid)
- Our arithmetic on reported figures (dotted)
- Estimated crude behind the fuel (dashed)
- Cannot be traced (hatched)
- Dashed: estimated from published euro value
Assumptions
- 1
Finland: road diesel available in June 2026
Everything refined in the country plus everything imported.
- 2
Where that fuel came from
- 3
The crude behind Finland's road diesel
- Exports are assumed to be drawn from every source in proportion to its share of supply.
- Each country's refineries are assumed to run on its crude-import mix over the latest three months.
- The chain looks back one country only. Imports are counted under the country the fuel was last shipped from; where that country has refineries, fuel that only passed through it is traced as if it had been refined there.
- The crude origin is the producing country the statistics report, not the loading terminal, so the Hormuz answer is a range wherever a producer loads both inside and outside the Persian Gulf.
In June 2026, most road diesel available in Finland was refined in Finland (≈88%), followed by Sweden (≈12%).
Finland's refineries ran on crude from Norway (≈68%), the United States (≈13%) and Denmark (≈10%), going by its crude imports in April–June 2026.
Taken together, an estimated ≈65% of the crude behind Finland's road diesel came from Norway, ≈14% from the United States and ≈9% from Denmark; less than 1% cannot be traced.
Under 0.1% of the crude behind Finland's road diesel is estimated to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz, a limited dependence judged on the upper bound. No midpoint is published: crude that cannot be traced is counted as anything from none to all of it.
This is an estimate, not a reported figure: it assumes exports are drawn proportionally from every source and that each country's refineries run on its crude-import mix, and it looks back only one country.
Hormuz and the pump price in Finland
Calculated- None of the crude behind Finland's road diesel in June 2026 could have passed through Hormuz.
- Since 28 Feb 2026, diesel at the pump went +45.2%; Brent (in US dollars) went +66.9% (week of 23 Feb 2026 to week of 28 Sep 2026).
- 41% of the diesel pump price is tax (week of 28 Sep 2026).
Is Hormuz really the reason? — the EU-wide picture →
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- EIA, IEA and terminal operators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin Hormuz route classification and country bounds, methodology v1.0
- European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy (DG ENER) — Weekly Oil Bulletin - retail fuel prices with and without taxes
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (petroleum spot prices)
- Method
- How this figure is made
- Strait of Hormuz: the upper end of the headline’s estimate for June 2026, the same figure as in the sentence above; no new figure is made here.
- Pump price: Weekly Oil Bulletin, diesel including tax, week of 23 Feb 2026 (€1.738 per litre) and week of 28 Sep 2026 (€2.523 per litre). Brent: EIA daily spot price, the first print dated in each of those weeks (23 Feb 2026: 71.9; 28 Sep 2026: 119.97; US dollars per barrel). Each change is worked out in the currency it is published in; no exchange rate is applied. The start week is the one containing the event date of Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026) (28 Feb 2026), the event the Strait of Hormuz page leads with; the end week is the latest week with both prices.
- Tax share: the pump price split into tax and price before tax for the week of 28 Sep 2026 (Weekly Oil Bulletin prices and published tax rates), as on the pump price page.
- The three figures are shown side by side, each on its own; no link between them is drawn here.
Go deeper for Finland
- What does diesel cost at the pump in Finland, and how much of it is tax?Pump price & tax →latest weekly price €2.52 per litre (diesel, week of 28 Sep 2026)
- Where has Finland bought its oil since 2015?Imports since 2015 →
- How does fuel reach Finland, flow by flow?Flow diagram, full page →
- How does Finland compare with Sweden, Estonia and Latvia?Compare with neighbours →
- Which refineries, ports and pipelines serve Finland?Refineries & pipelines →
- Where does Finland's crude come from, on a map?On the map →
- What does Norway supply to the EU?Supplier page: Norway →
- What does the United States supply to the EU?Supplier page: United States →
- What does Denmark supply to the EU?Supplier page: Denmark →
Crude origins
Calculated1 refinery — Neste Porvoo Refinery (Kilpilahti), 10 Mt/a.
In April 2026, three countries supplied all crude imports.
Share of crude imports by origin, to July 2026
- Norway
- United States
- United Kingdom
- Senegal
- Denmark
- Guyana
- Other origins
- Origin not published
- Estimated from customs euro values, by country shipped from
Striped months (May 2024, September 2024, March 2025 to March 2026 and May 2026 to July 2026): Finland's energy statistics do not publish crude imports for these months. They are estimated from the euro values in the customs statistics, by the country the crude was shipped from, which may not be where it was produced. Inference record #8; how these are estimated.
Share of crude imports, April 2026 (latest published month)
Since January 2023, comparing published months only: Denmark +10.0 pt, United States −7.8 pt.
Share of crude imports, April 2026: all origins
| Country of origin | Share | Tonnes |
|---|---|---|
| Norway | 59% | 511,000 |
| Denmark | 30% | 258,000 |
| United States | 11% | 91,000 |
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- Refinery operators and national regulators (cited per row) — Fuel Origin curated refinery reference list
- Period
- April 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
- Download
- Download CSV
Tonnes for 43 months between January 2023 and July 2026 are estimated from the euro values published in Eurostat's customs trade statistics (Comext DS-045409), because the tonnes were not published. How these are estimated
Inference record behind these estimates: #8.
Product origins
EstimatedRoad diesel imports, June 2026, estimated by country shipped from: Sweden 100%, Belgium 0.1%.
Estimated: Finland's energy statistics report no road diesel imports for June 2026, but customs record them without publishing most of the tonnes. These shares are estimated from the euro values published in the customs statistics, by the country the fuel was shipped from, which may not be where it was refined. Inference record #9; how these are estimated.
Share of road diesel imports by country shipped from (estimated), to June 2026
- Sweden
- Netherlands
- Belgium
- Qatar
- Denmark
- Norway
- Other origins
- Estimated from customs euro values, by country shipped from
Striped months (July 2025 to June 2026): Finland's energy statistics report no road diesel imports for them, but customs record them. They are estimated from the euro values in the customs statistics, by the country the fuel was shipped from, which may not be where it was refined. Inference record #9; how these are estimated.
Share of road diesel imports, June 2026 (estimated)
Share of road diesel imports, June 2026 (estimated): all countries shipped from
| Country last shipped from | Share | Tonnes |
|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 100% | 54,696 |
| Belgium | 0.1% | 38 |
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Imports of oil and petroleum products by partner country - monthly data
- Period
- June 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
- Download
- No CSV for this section: the source licence does not let us pass the file on, or there is nothing to download yet. See the licences above.
Tonnes for 43 months between January 2023 and July 2026 are estimated from the euro values published in Eurostat's customs trade statistics (Comext DS-045409), because the tonnes were not published. How these are estimated
Inference record behind these estimates: #9.
Stocks & days of cover
Official178 days of emergency stock cover in July 2026.
Closing stocks: 4,354,000 tonnes, +7.3% against the 12-month average.
Closing stocks, to July 2026
- Closing stocks
- 12-month average
Days of cover, to July 2026
- Not published
Source & method
- Source
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Emergency oil stocks in days equivalent - monthly data
- Eurostat (European Commission) — Stock levels for oil products - monthly data
- Period
- July 2026
- Method
- How this figure is made
- Which method the member state used
- Stock calculation method: method 2
- Minimum obligation method: method 1
- Days calculation method: method 1
- Download
- Download CSV
Recent events
Official- 28 Feb 2026Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption (2026)Shipping disruption · Strait of Hormuz / Persian Gulf
- 5 Feb 2023EU import ban on Russian refined petroleum products (in force 5 February 2023)Import ban · European Union
- 5 Dec 2022EU import ban on seaborne Russian crude oil (in force 5 December 2022)Import ban · European Union
- 24 Feb 2022Russian invasion of Ukraine (24 February 2022)War · Ukraine
Source & method
- Source
- International Energy Agency — Event timeline, cited per event
- US Energy Information Administration — Event timeline, cited per event
- European Commission — Event timeline, cited per event
- European Council — Event timeline, cited per event
- National legislators — Event timeline, cited per event
- Method
- How this figure is made